AYR 3.25

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 5 Chase starts.
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-50 record
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 2-80 record
* None have won since 1997
* No horse placed at the Cheltenham festival has won this race
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-81
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days
* 7 of the last 9 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-16 record in this
* The last 11 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

I came down to 4 horses to consider.
Outsiders BALLYFITZ and REGAL HEIGHTS do have reasonable profiles.
I see MINELLA FOUR STAR and
ALWAYS RIGHT as having every chance as well.
It would be easy to go with ALWAYS RIGHT but perhaps as a saver
with MINELLA FOUR STAR the main choice of the pair.

Guy

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This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

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