Horse Racing System Selections

Horse Racing System Selections

The following three bets are selections from a portfolio
of researched systems put out under the banner of the NH 500
portfolio on Dave Renham’s PunterProfits site.
( just one of the many interesting things going on there )

I put some of these up here on sports betting blog a
month or two back.

If my fading memory serves me right I believe there
were three out of four winners that day.
Read the rest of this entry

Frankel Betting Offer

I got this in my inbox last night from Coral
It looks a pretty good offer that is open to both new and existing Coral customers alike.

You can look at it in several ways.

#1 -punt normally and get  a nice little free bet bonus if frankel wins

#2 – play tighter with a  bet at Coral then trade back on Betfair style approach to give yourself minimal risk / downside but with the potential of up to £100 in free bet from Coral if your selections win.

 

Frankel, my Darling, I don’t Give a Damn!

Will this be the fond farewell that the crowds will remember or have the Bookies made a canny move to pull on the heartstrings of sentimental Punters up and down the land – could this be a race too far for the mighty Frankel?

Coral Connect are pleased to offer their first ever promotion on such an auspicious occasion so don’t miss out on this original and attractive promotional idea.

Here are the important details…

Brief Description

Up to £/€100 in free bets if Frankel wins

Place a winning bet on any of the first 4 races at Ascot tomorrow and, we will match your winning stake with a free bet of the same value, if Frankel wins.

 

Significant T&C’s

UK/ROI £/€ customers 18+. Excludes shops. Win Singles/Win part of Each Way Singles refunded on first four Ascot races on 20 th Oct 2012 up to £/€25 per race as free bet if your selection wins and Frankel wins Ascot 16:05 on 20 th Oct 2012. Max total of free bets £/€100. Free bets cannot be withdrawn and each must be wagered in full on any Single sports bet. Not valid on Tote Pool betting. Free Bets valid for 7 days. Free bet stakes not included in returns.

Other T&C’s

 

  • Offer only applies to £/€ Coral customers aged 18 years or over whose accounts are registered in the UK & Republic of Ireland.
  • Offer is available to new & existing online, mobile or telephone customers only.
  • If you place a winning bet on any of the first 4 races from Ascot on Saturday 20/10/2012 (13:45, 14:20, 14:55 & 15:30) and Frankel goes on to win the 16:05 Ascot, we will refund win Singles & Win Part of Each Way Singles up to £/€25 per race as a free bet.
  • Customers will only be eligible to receive a maximum of 4 free bets up to £/€25 or less, to a total of £/€100.
  • The Free Bets will be in the form of free bet tokens and credited within 24 hours of bet settlements. Void bets do not count towards this promotion.
  • If Frankel does not win the Free Bet offer does not apply.
  • Free bet tokens will expire within 7 days of issue and each must be used in their entirety on any Single sports bet (excluding Tote pool betting).
  • Free bet tokens are non-refundable. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
  • This free bet offer cannot be used in conjunction with, or contribute to any other Coral.co.uk free bet offer or promotions.
  • Promoter: Coral Interactive (Gibraltar) Limited, Regal House, Queensway, Gibraltar

 

To visit the Coral site for more info click here ==> Coral

Saturday Free Football Betting Tips

A nice winner last weekend up here from Phil the ex bookmaker.

We have another few football betting tips from him this weekend.

Swansea v Reading (3:00pm)
OVER 2.5 Goals at Evens (2.0) Ladbrokes 39/40 (1.98) Pinnacle  1pt

West Brom v QPR (3:00pm)
West Brom TO WIN at 10/11 (1.91) Coral Betfred Tote BoyleSports PaddyPower 1pt

NB These are not all his advices for this weekend. Just a few of them.

More for today Saturday and also one  premiership betting tip for Sunday in the full member area

over at the Football Bets site.

It is only £1 to get in and sample with your own eyes the advices from an ex bookmaker  with a  very impressive proofed long term profit record.

To visit his site click here ==> Football Bets

 

 

 

 

Scottish Premier League Bet

Match of the Day is not yet on our TV screens but the new soccer season has already started you know.

Outside the Premiership quite a few leagues are already underway.

The Socottish Premiership is one of them.

With the relegation of Rangers it looks to be a one horse race in the ante post soccer betting markets this year. Coral are top price about Celtic at 1/33. Compared to the 1/66 available in many others spots pureist may even argue that 1/33 is value but I am not having it myself.  I could get better interest in my bank with no risk of loss.

There are better value Scottish bets than that available.

One for todays action comes from Phil Brown the ex bookmaker turned long term profitable tipster.

Here is a copy of his message for today.

=========================================

A little later than usual tonight, as its been a hard slog with a lack of firms pricing up certain markets making life difficult.
However we do have one selection to place as St Mirren travel to newly promoted and injury hit Dundee…

Dundee v St Mirren (3:00pm)
St Mirren DRAW NO BET at Evens William HillBlue SquareLadbrokes 20/21 Stan James 1pt

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Nb Phil has an excellent long term record of net profit.

You can test out his service for just £1 at the link below

Football Betting Tips

 

 

 

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Scottish Grand National Racing Tip

Our regular free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician site is below

His full service has been on fire since Cheltenham.

To visit his site click here Betting Advice

—————————————————————————

We have had a decent week for full members here.
Only two firm advised bets over the entire week.
We attacked the 12/1 Coral offered about RIFLESSIONE
with an each way bet and got the place pay off.
Then on Friday we improved on 2nd spot with 8/1 winner VALMINA

We do have another firm bet today that runs in the 6.05
So plenty of time to join up as a member proper
and pick that up in the member area.

As for todays Free Horse Racing Tip.
This is not a firm bet. More so extra analysis and info
from the message extra analysis section.

But it is the big race of the day and the most asked for preview
for the free betting blog.

The Scottish National

A y r 3.25

For live Scottish National Odds odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-21/ayr/15-25/betting/

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I have looked at the last 18 renewals of this race
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* It is Just not the best preparation for this race
* JUNIOR has that against him
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* 3 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* JUNIOR looks underraced this season to me
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-19 record in this
* JUNIOR also fails this statistic
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-120
* No good coming here after a poor last run
* The following horses didnt do enough last time
* JUNIOR – ETXALAR
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 4 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18 4
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17 13
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 4 Chase starts.
* HARRY THE VIKING only has 3 Chase starts
* Thats one less than every 1st 2nd or 3rd
* HARRY THE VIKING doesnt come out that well
* HARRY THE VIKING is also a 7 year old
* We know 7 year olds dont win the Grand National
* In this race since 1992 they have a 1-55 record
* Horses aged 7 (1-55) look unsafe to me
* WALKON is 7 and may not get home
* PORTRAIT KING is 7 and lacks backclass
* He won the Eider last time and this is a second big test
* I see no evidence a 7 year old can do that
* OUR ISLAND – He isnt even 7 until next month
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-89
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* There was only 1 exposed winner aged 11 or more
* He had Graded form and 8 runs that season
* GARLETON – Not right as a 11 year old
* MERIGO – Has some flaws as an exposed 11yo
* The only winner like him had a more recent run
* He didnt win last time either and had more runs that year
* MERIGO – Credit for winning this in 2010 and 2nd last year
* ABBEYBRANEY – Wrong type of 11yo
* BALLYFITZ – HEEZ A STEEL dont offer enough aged 11 +
* 12 of the last 13 winners ran within 60 days
* ANY CURRENCY has been absent longer
* He looks underraced this year with that absence
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 3-89 record
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Graded form
* They all had 10st 4lbs or less as well
* KNOCKARA BEAU fails that
* FRUITY O4ROONEY fails that
* PETTIFOUR fails that
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* AURORAS ENCORE fails that statistic

* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* QUENTIN COLLONGES fails that
* OUR ISLAND also fails that
* QUENTIN COLLONGES only has 3 runs this year
* Some doing that have won but none aged 8
* No winners came from Hurdles
* PETTIFOUR – KING FONTAINE fails that
* GALAXY ROCK also come from hurdles
* Exposed horses won 6 of the last 18 renewals
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* AURORAS ENCORE – GARLETON fail that
* MAD AEDA doesnt look right
* The last 12 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out
* The following horses failed to achieve that
* PETTIFOUR – OUR ISLAND – ANY CURRENCY
* MOSTLY BOB – BE THERE IN FIVE
* GALAXY ROCK is not a negative
* Thats despite coming from hurdles. I can overlook that
* Decided not to shortlist him as an exposed 8yo
* Those that won all had more runs that season
* They all had more backclass and came from further too
* BE THERE IN FIVE also looks underraced this year aged 8

S h o r t l i s t

* MOSTLY BOB – Taking a chance on including him
* He had excused at Cheltenham and passes most stats
* Around 25/1 he could offer some value
* He was really progressive last year
* He has excuses in some races this year
* This track and ground could help him

* BENNY BE GOOD passes all the above trends
* He does have 11st 3lbs though which is a worry
* 8 of the last 10 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* I can overlook that given his price

* IKORODU ROAD sails through the above trends

Selection

Covering a few to small stakes with Ikorodu staked to
just return stakes on the other two if it wins

MOSTLY BOB 25/1 Win Bet ( a bit higher available on Betfair )
BENNY BE GOOD 25/1 Win Bet ( 36/1 Betfair )
IKORODU ROAD 12/1 Saver ( 16/1 Betfair )

Over Under Soccer Betting

Over Under Soccer Betting

A couple of football bets today from 99Reds over at the Football Bets service.

99Reds is an ex player manager so has a better feel for the game than most.
He is however a soccer stats freak and it is stats research that is the cornerstone of the long term
profitable record he has built up for clients there.

Here are a couple of his suggestionss for today

12.45pm   Liverpool to Beat Man Utd   8/5   Coral, Ladbrokes   1pt

1.00pm   Hereford v Shrewsbury   Over 2.5 goals   23/20   Hills   1pt

To visit his site clieck here ==> Football Betting Tips

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Bounty From The Bookies Today?

The below is from The Mathematician Site.

Just part of a much larger message from him today.

Fingers crossed for another decent priced winner from him again today.

To visit his site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

Lingfield 3.55

Low grade handicap. MISS BOUNTY is not a
statistical pick. I’m not convinced any of the
runners are statistical choices. I like her odds.
All year I have been banging on about her sire
not getting winners over 12f and more and It
interests me she drops in trip now to what is
her best distance as I explain below. She also
has good excuses for her last two runs and it
is likely she was not fit. She is the forgotten
horse in this race and 10/1 seems a big price.
I am going to leave her as a Mention for the
following reason. She does not have the usual
headgear on. She hasn’t yet won without any
headgear yet. She won last March when it was
applied after several runs without any and I
don’t know how significant that might be. It
is a Gap in my Knowledge or at least I don’t
feel I can overlook it with confidence. That
stops me betting her hard. I might well have
a saver on Beggers Belief but I do prefer the
mare MISS BOUNTY at the price and have
plans to bet her. Happy to ignore the issues
with headgear for my bet but not happy to
take the chance for any stronger selection.

10/1 at BetfredLadbrokesCoralStan James

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Free Soccer Betting Tips

Saturday Soccer Betting Tips

A couple of soccer tips for you this weekend.

These come 99Reds over at the Football Bets website.

As you can see there is little waffle to these.
The advice is based on 99 Reds stats database.
If you look at the historic results section on the football bets site
you will see his advice has been well worth following
with a significant long term net profit.

Yeovil v Huddersfield (3:00pm)
Huddersfield TO WIN at 3/4 William Hill Ladbrokes Stan James PaddyPower 1pt

OVER 2.5 Goals Double
Man City v Wolves OVER 2.5 Goals (3:00pm)
Preston v Bournemouth OVER 2.5 Goals (3:00pm)
This double pays out 7/5 Sky Coral 27/20 PaddyPower Blue Square Betfred BoyleSports  1pt

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Free Soccer Betting Tips

A couple of free soccer betting tips for you today.

These come from the Football Bets site.
There you get three experts for the price of one
and it is only £1 to test drive the service.

They guys have much more action today than is below.
These are just a few randomly selected bets from a bigger message.

As you can see they are not ones for huge reams of waffle.
Tips are short and sharp and to the point.
Their long term profitable results do the talking.

Advisor – Phil
Phil is an ex bookmaker odds compiler

Reading v Middlesbrough (3:00pm)
Middlesbrough DRAW NO BET at 11/10 PaddyPower Sky 21/20 William Hill Coral 1pt

Advisor – 99Reds
99 Reds is an ex lower division player and manager.
Soccer betting wise however he is a big stats freak
and uses said stats to id value soccer tips.

Millwall to beat Burnley   6/5   Tote   1pt

Scottish Grand National

AYR 3.25

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 5 Chase starts.
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-50 record
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 2-80 record
* None have won since 1997
* No horse placed at the Cheltenham festival has won this race
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-81
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days
* 7 of the last 9 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-16 record in this
* The last 11 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

I came down to 4 horses to consider.
Outsiders BALLYFITZ and REGAL HEIGHTS do have reasonable profiles.
I see MINELLA FOUR STAR and
ALWAYS RIGHT as having every chance as well.
It would be easy to go with ALWAYS RIGHT but perhaps as a saver
with MINELLA FOUR STAR the main choice of the pair.

Guy

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This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog