Over Under Soccer Betting

A couple of football bets today from 99Reds over at the Football Bets service.

99Reds is an ex player manager so has a better feel for the game than most.
He is however a soccer stats freak and it is stats research that is the cornerstone of the long term
profitable record he has built up for clients there.

Here are a couple of his suggestionss for today

12.45pm   Liverpool to Beat Man Utd   8/5   Coral, Ladbrokes   1pt

1.00pm   Hereford v Shrewsbury   Over 2.5 goals   23/20   Hills   1pt

To visit his site clieck here ==> Football Betting Tips

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The below is from The Mathematician Site.

Just part of a much larger message from him today.

Fingers crossed for another decent priced winner from him again today.

To visit his site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

Lingfield 3.55

Low grade handicap. MISS BOUNTY is not a
statistical pick. I’m not convinced any of the
runners are statistical choices. I like her odds.
All year I have been banging on about her sire
not getting winners over 12f and more and It
interests me she drops in trip now to what is
her best distance as I explain below. She also
has good excuses for her last two runs and it
is likely she was not fit. She is the forgotten
horse in this race and 10/1 seems a big price.
I am going to leave her as a Mention for the
following reason. She does not have the usual
headgear on. She hasn’t yet won without any
headgear yet. She won last March when it was
applied after several runs without any and I
don’t know how significant that might be. It
is a Gap in my Knowledge or at least I don’t
feel I can overlook it with confidence. That
stops me betting her hard. I might well have
a saver on Beggers Belief but I do prefer the
mare MISS BOUNTY at the price and have
plans to bet her. Happy to ignore the issues
with headgear for my bet but not happy to
take the chance for any stronger selection.

10/1 at Betfred – Ladbrokes – Coral – Stan James

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Saturday Soccer Betting Tips

A couple of soccer tips for you this weekend.

These come 99Reds over at the Football Bets website.

As you can see there is little waffle to these.
The advice is based on 99 Reds stats database.
If you look at the historic results section on the football bets site
you will see his advice has been well worth following
with a significant long term net profit.

Yeovil v Huddersfield (3:00pm)
Huddersfield TO WIN at 3/4 William Hill Ladbrokes Stan James PaddyPower 1pt

OVER 2.5 Goals Double
Man City v Wolves OVER 2.5 Goals (3:00pm)
Preston v Bournemouth OVER 2.5 Goals (3:00pm)
This double pays out 7/5 Sky Coral 27/20 PaddyPower Blue Square Betfred BoyleSports  1pt

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A couple of free soccer betting tips for you today.

These come from the Football Bets site.
There you get three experts for the price of one
and it is only £1 to test drive the service.

They guys have much more action today than is below.
These are just a few randomly selected bets from a bigger message.

As you can see they are not ones for huge reams of waffle.
Tips are short and sharp and to the point.
Their long term profitable results do the talking.

Advisor – Phil
Phil is an ex bookmaker odds compiler

Reading v Middlesbrough (3:00pm)
Middlesbrough DRAW NO BET at 11/10 PaddyPower Sky 21/20 William Hill Coral 1pt

Advisor – 99Reds
99 Reds is an ex lower division player and manager.
Soccer betting wise however he is a big stats freak
and uses said stats to id value soccer tips.

Millwall to beat Burnley   6/5   Tote   1pt

AYR 3.25

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 5 Chase starts.
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-50 record
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 2-80 record
* None have won since 1997
* No horse placed at the Cheltenham festival has won this race
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-81
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days
* 7 of the last 9 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-16 record in this
* The last 11 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

I came down to 4 horses to consider.
Outsiders BALLYFITZ and REGAL HEIGHTS do have reasonable profiles.
I see MINELLA FOUR STAR and
ALWAYS RIGHT as having every chance as well.
It would be easy to go with ALWAYS RIGHT but perhaps as a saver
with MINELLA FOUR STAR the main choice of the pair.

Guy

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This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

Football Betting Advice

A couple of bets today from Phil over at the Football Bets website.

Phil spent many years working for an independant bookmaker.
He now advises clients on what to bet on and has a very good long term record.

See Football Results

Anyhow enough waffle.

See below which football bets he is advising today.

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Morning Guys,

We had a nice winner last night as our double came in at a decent 21/10

Today we hope to continue winning ways with a couple of solid bets in the shape of another Double and a single

1pt Schalke v Hamburg (2:30pm)
OVER 2.5 Goals at 19/20 Bet365 10/11 Coral 8/9

1pt Win Double
Bayern Munich TO BEAT Wolfsburg (2:30pm)
Aberdeen TO BEAT St Mirren (3:00pm)
This Double pays just shy of 11/5 at Betfred and 21/10 at Coral William Hill  Tote

Speak Soon – All The Best , Phil ( BettingLayingClub)

The following horse racing tip below comes from Guy over at Mathematician Betting

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NEWMARKET 2.35

Bet365 Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed Race)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m

9/4 Alexandros, 5/2 Secrecy, 11/2 Nationalism, 7/1 Kingsfor 8/1 The Cheka, 12/1 Balducci, 14/1 Mia´s Boy, 50/1 Letty.

This is a Listed Class race over 8f. Newmarket has 24 similar  races at this time of year.
I can tell you horses from a 7f race  had a 0-60 record in these 24 races.
SECRECY – MIA´S BOY  KINGSFORT and BALDUCCI all have that against them.
It’s easy to oppose LETTY. This leaves 3 runners and all 3 have decent chances in an open race.
ALEXANDROS is one option  but I didnt see a good enough case for him.
Only 4 of the 24 winners were exposed and all 4 dropped in distance and none like
ALEXANDROS came from a Mile or less (0-29) and as he has just 1 run since July I wasnt convinced.
THE CHEKA  may well go well but he also has just one run since July and it  may leave him short of full fitness.
NATIONALISM for me.

NATIONALISM  is a 3 year old and they have a good record
and several lighter raced ones like him have won. I think it is very significant his half brother won this race in 2004
and he is being asked to do the same.
His low draw killed his Chance  in the Cambridgeshire last time.
He started favourite for that  race and there were rumours he was a Group horse at the time.
With more improvement than most I love his chance in this.

SELECTION – NATIONALISM Each Way 6/1 Bet365 Coral VC

Football Tip From Ex Bookmaker

Phil spent many years working for a bookmaker called PageBet

He turned down several offers of work there as an odds compiler in order to focus on his own personal betting.

He now also earns a bit extra helping members over at the Football Bets site win cash from the bookmakers.

His long term record there is pretty impressive.

See Football Betting Results

Below is a copy of one of his tips for today.

As you can see he is short and sweet and gets straight to the point.

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A great result last night as two of our bets won and we got stake back on the other for a 2.6pts profit.

Today we have just the one small bet from League One…

OVER 2.5 Goals Double
Hartlepool v Peterborough OVER 2.5 Goals
Carlisle v Notts County OVER 2.5 Goals
This Double pays out 9/4 at Bet365 Bluesquare Sportingbet 0.5pts

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Out of interest the tips from yesterday he was referring to are copied below.

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A day of Euro2012 qualifiers today and thats where we head with two singles and a win treble…

Northern Ireland v Italy (7:45pm)
Northern Ireland DRAW NO BET at 3/1 Coral BoyleSports 14/5 Bwin Unibet 0.5pts

( stake returned as match was a draw )

Ireland v Russia (7:45pm)
OVER 2.5 Goals at 6/4 William Hill 11/8 Several firms 1pt

WON

WIN TREBLE
Belgium TO BEAT Kazakhstan (5:00pm)
FYR Macedonia TO BEAT Andorra (6:00pm)
Germany TO BEAT Turkey (7:30pm)
This Treble pays out 11/5 at William Hill and Victor Chandler 0.5pts

WON

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Scottish Football Betting

The following comes from Tammboy over at the Football Bets website.
As an ex odds compiler for a major bookmaker his advice has proven worth following.

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Scottish Division Two
Livingston WIN @Evs (vs. Peterhead) – 1pt win bet (Bet365, Blue Square, Coral, William Hill)

Peterhead vs. Livingston

Livingston are the division’s favourites and they’ve done nothing wrong this season beating most
of the better sides in the division and only a last minute penalty stopping them from winning
all their games.
They face Peterhead, one of the weaker teams and it’s arguable they should be shorter than
the Evens available. Back them to win at Evens before the price goes.

Tip for Lingfield from Guy Ward

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> horse racing tips

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Lingfield 2.10 – ALFIE TUPPER 7/2 Coral -  Betfred – Bet365

ALFIE TUPPER is still well handicapped and is in a
good spell of form having ran himself fit now and I
think he can win the 2.10pm. He has had excuses for
two very close defeats. He doesnt have many to beat
in this race and whilst everything at this track can be
vulnerable to fast finishers and how the race is run I
cant see this horse not going very close today and
win lose or draw I will be surprised if he is beaten by
more than a length and with luck in running can win.

LINGFIELD 2.10

Bet African Nations Cup – Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f

3/1 Alfie Tupper, 5/1 Atacama Sunrise, 6/1 Bavarica
7/1 Rapid City, 8/1 Jeer , 10/1 Charlie Smirke Bosamcliff
16/1 Society Venue, 25/1 Alqaahir 25/1 Maybe I Will
25/1 Whodunit.

This is a 10f Handicap and we have 350 of these races
at this time of year. Picking out a few poor profiles I’d
oppose MAYBE I WILL as a mare absent 230 days. I
oppose WHODUNIT from 7f with 1 run since March.
BAVARICA doesnt appeal as no exposed mare aged
7 or more defied a months absence in the 350 races. I
think RAPID CITY is a poor bet with 1 run since June.
SOCIETY VENUE looks underraced to me and I dont
want him from a career high mark. ALQAAHIR would
not be my first choice aged 8 absent 40 days. There
were a few winners like that but almost all had far less
weight and almost all had more backclass as well. It’s
hard to rate BOSAMCLIFF as she has been hurdling
but I dont really want a mare from hurdles and she is
respected but avoided. I looked at 4 year old fillies in
350 races like ATACAMA SUNRISE. I found 8 fillies
like her that  came from 10f handicaps but those who
ran within the past fortnight had a 0-50 record and it
was only those from a longer break that won. That’s
possibly a statistical blip but its a 0-50 record and I
dont see ATACAMA SUNRISE as safe because of
it. I looked at 4 year olds like CHARLIE SMIRKE who
came from Maidens with 9 or more career starts and
found a 2-66 record. To be fair to him both winners
were male like him and came from 8f maidens which
when applied turned into a 2-13 record so he’s fine.

CHARLIE SMIRKE – I have found 2 similar winners

JEER – I give him a chance as he is well handicapped

ALFIE TUPPER – Strong Profile

SELECTION

ALFIE TUPPER  Win Bet

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> horse racing tips