Scottish Grand National

AYR 3.25

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 5 Chase starts.
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-50 record
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 2-80 record
* None have won since 1997
* No horse placed at the Cheltenham festival has won this race
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-81
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days
* 7 of the last 9 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-16 record in this
* The last 11 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

I came down to 4 horses to consider.
Outsiders BALLYFITZ and REGAL HEIGHTS do have reasonable profiles.
I see MINELLA FOUR STAR and
ALWAYS RIGHT as having every chance as well.
It would be easy to go with ALWAYS RIGHT but perhaps as a saver
with MINELLA FOUR STAR the main choice of the pair.

Guy

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This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

Aintree Trends and Statistics

The below comes from Dave over at Racing Trends.

Stats are based on ten years historical data.

You can read more from Dave at this link  Horse Racing Blog

Saturday

1.45 John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 2m4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners started in the first two of the betting. Second favourites have won 5 races (PROFIT of £14.08; ROI +156.4%).
Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/2 or shorter.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
LTO race: 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival and all 5 had finished sixth or better.
Races in current season: 8 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had five runners and 3 have won (1 placed).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 20/1+: 0 wins from 44 (only 3 placed).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 15 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 27 runners (only 2 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 5, 2, F, 4, 3, 1/2, 5, 3, 5, 1
Age: 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (although they made up 66% of the runners).

Trends Summary: 5 and 6yos dominate the race but they do provide the majority of the runners. Second favourites have performed very well winning half the races, while a decent effort at Cheltenham LTO is another positive. Most of the winners had run at least four times that season which is a further positive to bear in mind. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race so any runner from the stable requires close scrutiny.





2.15 Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Race LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter (9 winners were 4/1 or shorter).
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners were first or second in the betting. Second favourites have won 6 renewals (PROFIT of £12.33; ROI +112.1%).
Breeding: 5 of the last 10 winners were French bred (6 others were placed).
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had 4 winners in the past 10 renewals (5 in last 12).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 13/2+: 0 wins from 43 (only 4 placed).
Breeding: British bred runners have provided 0 winners from 16 with only 1 placed runner.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins, 6 seconds from 10.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2

Trends Summary: The best starting point is to look for horses that ran in the Arkle Chase LTO as they have provided 80% of the winners from around 50% of the total runners. The market has been a very strong indicator also with no winner priced over 6/1. Indeed there have been 9 winners priced 4/1 or shorter. In terms of breeding Feench breds definitely have an edge while British bred runners have struggled. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race.





2.50 John Smith’s Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 5 of the last 10 winners finished out of the frame / fell LTO.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 12/1 or shorter.
Trainers: 6 of the last 10 winners (60%) were trained in Ireland. Irish raiders have accounted for only a quarter of the total runners).
Jockeys: Ruby Walsh has had 3 wins from 6 rides in the race; Timmy Murphy has had 3 wins from 8.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Headgear: 0 wins from 25 runners for horses with any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue ties).
Price 14/1+: 0 wins from 47 (4 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12, but 5 others have finished second.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 7, 2, 1/2, F, 2, 10, 1/2, 4, 3
Breeding: Irish bred runners do have a slight edge having won 6 races (60%) from 40% of the total runners.

Trends Summary: Horses priced 12/1 or shorter have dominated the race while a good run LTO is not a necessity. Irish runners have an outstanding record in the race not just in the last 10 years but stretching back to the mid 70s. Irish breds perform above the norm, while horses wearing headgear have a poor record.





3.25 John Smith’s Handicap Chase 3m 1f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Class: 9 of the last 10 winnershad raced in Graded company in their careers.
Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least one of their last six starts.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has won the race 3 times (4 if you go back an extra year); Nicky Henderson has won the race twice.
Running style: Hold up horses have done well in this race with 6 wins from the last 10 renewals.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Course winners: Course winners are 0 from 25 with just 3 placed.
Career starts: Horses that had raced 25 times or more in their careers have provided just 1 win from 47 (LOSS of £41.50; ROI -88.3%).
LTO run: Horses that failed to finish on their previous start have provided 0 winners from 31.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a small loss.
Finishing positions of favourites: P, 1, 3, 5, 2, 4/P, 1, F, PU, 4
Course LTO: 6 of the 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO from 60 runners (SR 10%); horses that did not race at the festival have provided 4 winners from 93 (SR 4.3%).

Trends Summary: Not the strongest races of the meeting as far as trends are concerned. It is best to focus on horses that have won at least once in their last six runs, and have run in Graded company at some point in their careers. Any horses trained by Jonjo O’Neill needs close scrutiny, while Nicky Henderson has a decent record also. In terms of negatives, avoid horses that have 25 times or more in their careers and/or any horse that failed to finish LTO. Finally, horses that ran at the Cheltenham festival have a much better chance of winning than those that did not.





4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced 20/1 or shorter. Hence 70% of the winners have come from 29% of the runners.
Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further – this stat holds true right back to 1970.
Age: 9 and 10yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners (70%) from just under 50% of the runners.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.
Breeding: 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 96 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from 30 and none have finished in the first four – indeed 23 have failed to complete the course). 13yo and older runners are rare but all 10 have been soundly beaten.
Price 40/1+: 1 win from 188 qualifiers.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 55, with 3 further finishing placed (LOSS of £47.00; ROI -85.5%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 20.
Finishing positions of favourites: F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R, 1/6, 7, 1/4
Trainers: 4 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland.

Trends Summary: Mon Mome was a shock 100/1 winner two years ago but overall big priced runners should be ignored. One stat that goes back to 1970 is concerned with the fact that all winners had won over 3 miles or further in their careers. Irish trainers deserve respect also as they have provided 40% of the winners from less than 20% of the total runners. In terms of weight, horses carrying bigger weights (11st 2lb or more) have a poor record although Don’t Push It bucked the trend last year carrying 11st 5lb to victory. In terms of age it looks best to avoid horses aged 8 or younger.





4.55 John Smith’s Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 2m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 20/1.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 10st 10lb or less.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 0 wins from 10.
Market: The top three in the betting have provided 0 winners.
Official ratings: Horses with an OR of 133 or more have provided 1 winner from 43 (LOSS of £31.00; ROI -72.1%).
Weights: The top seven in the weights have provided only 2 winners from 74.
Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 22 runners but 0 winners (only 3 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 15, F, 2, 13, 15, 8, PU, 18, 8
Age: 6 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (16 out of the last 20 going back a further 10 years). However, they do make up a fair proportion of the total runners.

Trends Summary: On the face of it there seem to be limited trends, but horses carrying 10st 10lb or less that are priced between 7/1 and 20/1 is a starting point at least.





5.30 Champion Standard National Hunt Flat Race 2m 1f

The race was not run in 2007 so I have gone back an extra year.

POSITIVE TRENDS

Season’s form: 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least once that season.
Market: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced 25/1 or bigger.
Age: 6yos have a decent record with 5 wins from 38 (PROFIT of £104.25; ROI +274.3%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Horses from the top 8 of the betting have won just 3 of the 10 races.
Age: Horses aged 4 have provided just 1 winner from 59 (LOSS £44.00; ROI -74.6%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins, 3 placed from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 8, 1, 1, 14, 3, 4, 4, 3/20, 2, 19

Trends Summary: With the last 5 of the last 7 winners having been priced 25/1 or bigger this is not an easy finale. 6yos have a good record having won 50% of the races from 19% of the total runners. So a big priced 6yo is probably the value call.

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

How To Pick The Gold Cup Winner

After timing this I know but there is still opportunity to learn from succesfull race analysis.

This was one of the better Gold Cup bits of analysis I read.

Guy seems to have  a bit of knack for the Gold Cup as he made a very good and reasoned case for Imperial Commander at 8/1 when he won last year.

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CHELTENHAM 3.20

Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

100/30 Imperial Commander, 9/2 Long Run
5/1 Kauto Star, 11/2 Denman, 11/1 Kempes
12/1 Pandorama, 14/1 Midnight Chase
20/1 Tidal Bay, 20/1 Weird Al, 25/1 Albertas Run
25/1 China Rock, 33/1 Neptune Collonges
33/1 What A Friend, 66/1 Carruthers.

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* Like many I want to oppose the old guard
* KAUTO STAR and DENMAN are opposed
* Both are now 11 year olds
* No Gold Cup winner was that age since 1969
* I take the view both are now vulnerable to improvers
* DENMAN especially looks weak with just 1 run this season
* KAUTO STAR only has 2 runs and doesnt appeal
* I would have to oppose this ageing pair
* PANDORAMA doesnt look safe to me
* You ideally want between 6 and 14 Chase starts
* PANDORAMA has had just 5 and pulled up early in one
* He has ran just twice this year which is a bare minimum
* Having Pulled up early in one of those races I’d worry
* PANDORAMA lacks form at the track as well
* Short on experience it’s not a Gold Cup winners profile
* MIDNIGHT CHASE has been a revelation last Autumn
* He comes from a Handicap and 2 recent winners did that
* That said both those winners had Grade 1 Form before
* Every winner since 1992 won or placed in a Grade 1-2 race
* MIDNIGHT CHASE has never ran in that class before
* Rated 163 without that form I’d question his class
* Coming from a Handicap before Christmass won’t help
* The form of that win has hardly worked out
* With the National in mind I think he will be found out
* CHINA ROCK looks outclassed
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal much either
* CARRUTHERS has shown this race is too much for him
* WEIRD AL only has 5 Chase starts
* That would make him the least experienced winner in ages
* I dont like him with 2 runs this year and a break

POSSIBLES

* KEMPES was impressive in Ireland last time
* He is peaking and could offer more improvment
* Unusual type as he started his career on the Flat
* The last winner to do that was back in 1979
* Thats not a good sign and makes him harder to fancy
* So to does the lack of form at Cheltenham
* One run here over Hurdles and well beaten in that
* His rating is just below the class usually required
* He will probably run well without winning
* WHAT A FRIEND doesnt look a likely winner
* His profile is too good for a 40/1 chance though
* His rating suggests he isnt good enough and he may not be
* It wouldnt be a complete shock if he won though

SHORTLIST

TIDAL BAY
IMPERIAL COMMANDER
LONG RUN

* IMPERIAL COMMANDER is the reigning Champion
* He has had just 1 run this year in a very light season
* His trainer has recently quashed that saying he will win
* He does have a brilliant record Fresh
* Winning last year and going well fresh gets him shortlisted
* He is 10 now and thats older than ideal
* I ignore that statistic as its a race full of older horses
* He is still ideally exposed with 12 Chase starts
* I’d have liked one more run this year but I like his chance
* I think he is one of 3 with outstanding claims

* TIDAL BAY deserves to take his chance
* He is high class and should be suited to the race
* Statistically he is older than ideal aged 10
* There has been a 10yo winner and plenty placed
* I wouldnt rule him out based on that statistic alone
* Not with so many others with bigger problems
* After all 3 or the 4 market leaders are that age and more
* You want 6-14 Chase runs
* He has had 16 Chase runs and thats only 2 more than ideal
* He has never Fallen over fences in his life
* He has a consistent record as well over fences
* TIDAL BAY looks outstanding value at 22/1

* LONG RUN is clearly Top Class and good enough
* The issue is whether he is good enough at the track
* He is 6 and the last 6yo winner was 1948
* It’s not that relevant as hardly any have tried
* Those that did included The Fellow beaten in a photo
* One think I would mention is that he is not technically 6
* He wont become 6 until April unofficially
* The Fellow was 4 months older than he is
* I see him as easily shortlistable and in the 1-2-3
* I dont like the fact he is not actually a full 6yo yet
* There is also the track and many say he doesnt like it
* I find that ridiculous after evidence of just 2 races
* Far too early to write him off at all
* His run in last years Sun Alliance was excusable
* He was statistically Repulsive in that race
* His chance was never as good as it was portrayed
* I have to forgive him that run and he did place
* In the Sun Alliance last year he was inexperienced
* Two days ago we opposed Time For Rupert in the RSA
* He had a better statistical profile than Long Run last year
* LONG RUN had 2 runs and Time For Rupert 3
* LONG RUN also came from 2m to 3m last year
* Time For Rupert didnt have to go up in trip
* LONG RUN was also a 5yo last year in that race
* There are just 2 winners aged 5 since 1946 in the RSA
* LONG RUN didnt have the allowances they had
* His run in 3rd last year was nothing short of magnificent
* Thats the stick many are beating him with this year
* His other defeat here was first time out this year
* That wasnt too bad a run either on his debut
* He demands the benefit of the doubt

SELECTION

LONG RUN 5/1 Win Bet

TIDAL BAY 22/1 + Win Bet

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

National Hunt Horse Racing Statistics

National Hunt Horse Racing Statistics

As Michael Caine would say ..”not a lot of people know that”

Knowing more than most is a great position to be in when making betting decissions.

The info below is a snippet from todays message from Dave Renham’s RacingTrends Service.

It is a mere snippet.

His full message coantains much much more about favourite stats, trainer stats and draw bias etc.

RacignTrends is well worth a look if you are thinking punter who likes to do your own thing instead of blindly following tips. You will find Dave’s research a  great aid giving you racing insights most others do not have access to.

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POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

4.30    Ayr – King Sandor **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

1.20    Newbury – Oasis Knight: N Henderson – hurdle races; off track for 6 months or more; class 2 or lower; SR 34% ROI +46% (win & pl 54%)

2.25    Newbury – Riverside Theatre **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

3.35    Newbury – Tiger O’toole **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

2.40    Warwick – Kilmurry **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

3.45    Warwick – Alfie Sherrin **: J O’Neill – novice/beginner chases must be priced 8/1 or shorter; NOT Grade 1 tracks SR 31% ROI +19% (win & pl 52%)

4.55    Warwick – Dark Shadow: N Henderson – 4yos on debut SR 36% ROI +36% (win & pl 57%)

4.55    Warwick – Theatre Guide **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

NEGATIVE STATS -

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

5.05    Ayr – Glengap: Poor Sire Stats – Needle Gun in hurdles races; SR 4% ROI -74% (win & pl 21%)

4.05    Newbury – Jokers Legacy **: Poor Trainer Stat – T Vaughan – horses wearing headgear; must be 3rd or bigger in the betting; SR 5% ROI -64% (win & pl 20%)

4.40    Newbury – Star Neuville **: Poor jockey stat – A Mc Coy in bumpers; horses MUST BE priced 5/1 or bigger SR 4% ROI -70% (win & pl 19%)

50/1 Winner At Newmarket?

50/1 Winner At Newmarket?

A specualtive  long shot each way suggestion for newmarket today from The Mathematician. To visit his own site click here ==> Horse Betting

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NEWMARKET 1.50

Victor Chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

2/1 Delegator, 5/1 Red Jazz, 10/1 Mabait, 10/1 Main Aim
12/1 Cat Junior, 12/1 Dream Eater, 16/1 High Standing
20/1 Duff, 20/1 Himalya, Shakespearean, 25/1 Harrison George 25/1 Sir Gerry, 33/1 Golden Stream, 50/1 Blue Angel.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 20 renewals since 1990
* 18 of the 20 winners had between 9 and 14 career runs
* Horses with 13 or more starts struggled
* The only ones that won had Grade 1 form before
* Male 3 year olds are just 1-37 with 13 or more runs
* No 3 year old has won this down in distance

SHORTLIST

* DELEGATOR has 1 run this season
* A Few past winners had 2 runs but none had 1
* Thats the biggest problem he faces
* BLUE ANGEL has a surprisingly good profile
* She is very similar to the 2007 winner
* She is  close to 2 other winners
* In a race of shocks she could be interesting
* 3 Year Old fillies with 7-12 career starts
* Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time
* At least 6 runs this season
* These horses had a 4-6 record in this race
* The last 2 that won (2007 and 2000) were 20/1
* BLUE ANGEL is a possibly shock  winner.

It looks a ridiculous shout to go with BLUE ANGLE who
is 50/1 and more on Betfair and multiple bookmakers but the last 10 renewals have
seen horses win a 20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 and 16/1 and they
were impossible to find as well so she may be able to nick
a place. I’m not keen on any of the alternatives so with a
risk of making myself look stupid I will go with her.

Definately more chance of losing with this bet than winning with it but the name of the game is long term edge and at 50/1 I sniff some value.
SELECTION

BLUE ANGEL 50/1 + Each  Way Bet365BetfredLadbrokes – stan james

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics by Dave Renham

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Dave offers a useful free guide to horse racing.

To get yours click here ==> Horse Racing Course

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In this post I am looking at the Spring Mile, the Brocklesby and the Listed Cammidge sprint.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 15 renewals. All profits
and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on
investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.00 Doncaster -
Spring Mile – 1m class 2 (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
Second, third and fourth favourites have provided 6 winners and backing
all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £12.50 (ROI +25%).
Course LTO:

9 of the 15 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. They have provided
60% of the winners from only 33% of the total runners. Backing all such
runners would have produced a profit of £44.50 (ROI +40.5%).

Age:
4yos have won 10 of the last 15 renewals. (67% of winners from 44% of
the total runners).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites:
1 win from 15 for a loss of £7.00 (ROI -46.7%).
Price:
All runners priced 11/2 or shorter have been beaten (12 in total).
Price:
Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 122 qualifiers
for a loss of £88.00 (ROI -72.1%).
Distance LTO:
Horses that ran over 1m1f or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 78
qualifiers.
Class LTO:
67 horses raced in the same class or higher LTO and all have lost.
Course LTO:
Horses that ran on the all weather LTO have provided just 3 winners
from 155 runners for a loss of £108.00 (ROI -69.7%).
Age:
Horses 7yos and older have provided 0 winners from 55.

GENERAL STATS

Position LTO:
Horses that finished 10th or worse LTO have won 7 of the
races.
Sex of horse:
Female runners have a fair record with 3 wins from 31 for a profit of
£22.00 (ROI +71%).

Trends analysis:
In general I would look to use the negative trends first to help narrow
this big field down. Firstly ignore 7 year olds and older, then ignore
and horses dropping in trip. All 15 winners raced in a lower class LTO
and there should be preference for horses that ran at a Grade 1 track
LTO. Also LTO form does not really seem to matter as nearly half the
winners have won after finishing 10
th
or worse LTO.

2.35 Doncaster -
Cammidge Trophy – 6f Listed (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price:
7 of the last 15 winners have been priced between 6/1 and 11/1. Backing
all runners in this price bracket would have produced a profit of £14.50
(ROI +26.9%).
LTO class:
Horses that raced in Listed class LTO have provided 8 of the last 15
winners.
Days since last
run:
14 of the last 15 winners were having their first run of the
year in the UK.
Running style:
In recent years horses that have raced up with or close to the pace
have had a clear advantage providing 8 of the last 11 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

LTO class:
Horses that raced in class 3 company or lower LTO have provided 0 winners
from 25 runners.
LTO race type:
Horses that raced in an all age handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 65 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -76.9%).
LTO course:

Horses that raced on the all weather LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 33 for a loss of £24.50 (ROI -74.2%).

Headgear:
Horses wearing blinkers / visors have provided 0 winners from 24.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc.
joints):
4 wins from 17 for a loss of £2.75 (ROI -16.2%).
Age:
3yos have won 1 race from 9 (SR 11.1%); 4yos have won 4 races from 59
(SR 6.8%); 5yos have won 4 races from 31 (SR 12.9%); 6yos have won 3
races from 28 (SR 10.7%); 7yos have won 2 races from 23 (SR 8.7%); 8yos+
have won 1 from 26 (SR 3.8%).
Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 13 races from 143 (SR 9.1%); female runners have
won 2 races from 33 (SR 6.1%).

Trends analysis:
This is a race that traditionally favours seasonal debutants rather
than horses that have raced recently on the all weather. The best value
has been in the 6/1 to 11/1 price bracket. Prominent racers have a good
recent record, while horses that raced in Listed class LTO have been
the most successful. Avoid horses that raced in an all age handicap
LTO and/or and any horse wearing blinkers or a visor. Also horses that
raced in class 3 or lower LTO look best ignored.

3.40 Doncaster -
Brocklesby – 5f conditions (2yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 6 in the betting. (15.4
runners per race is the 15-year average).
Price:
14 of the last 15 winners have been priced 14/1 or lower.
Draw:
In big fields high draws have had the advantage in recent years with
four of the seven 17 runner plus races since 1998 going to one of the
top three stalls. Indeed, 2 years ago the first five runners home were
drawn 19, 14, 13, 18 and 20 (19 ran; 2 non runners). Last year the first
six horses home in a 19 runners race were drawn 11 or higher.
Running style:
The last 15 winners have raced close to or up with the pace.
Trainers:
Bill Turner has saddled 4 winners and 4 placed horses from 15.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc.
joints):
2 wins from 20 for a loss of £10.25 (ROI -51.3%).
Market position:
Horses 10th or bigger in the betting market have provided
1 win from 89 runners for a loss of £63.00 (ROI -70.8%).
Price:
Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 110 runners
for a loss of £84.00 (ROI -76.4%).
Training centre:
Newmarket trainers have provided just 1 winners from 23 for a loss of
£19.75 (ROI -85.9%).

GENERAL STATS

Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 12 races from 170 (SR 4.9%); female runners have
won 3 races from 61 (SR 4.9%).
Foaling date:
January and February foals have won 5 races from 79 (SR 6.3%); March
foals have won 6 races from 70 (SR 8.6%); April and May foals have won
4 from 82 (SR 4.9%).

Trends analysis:
With this being such an early 2yo race one would expect trends to be
thin on the ground, but there are several useful pointers to this contest.
Traditionally it is best to focus on horses priced 14/1 or shorter,
although it should be noted that favourites have struggled. Racing close
to the pace has been vital and this has become more important as the
fields have increased, so ‘in running’ players take note! A trainer
to note is Bill Turner whose record is very impressive. Finally, in
big fields a high draw has been an advantage.

Stratford Horse Racing Tip

STRATFORD 3.00

Alcester Selling Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+)  2m6f110y

4/1 Tabaran, 11/2 Dusty Dane, 11/2 Heraldry, Irish Legend
6/1 Answer Me, 6/1 Attorney General, 9/1 Triple Bluff
16/1 Little Rort, 25/1 Eskimo Pie, 25/1 Little Blackbeetle
33/1 Brookfieldshector.

* This is a Selling hurdle over 2m 6.5f
* There has only been 20 similar races

Interesting little race. Only 20 similar races but all 20
winners ran within 10 weeks. HERALDRY has been
absent 122 days and that worries me for a 10yo with
just 2 runs this season. DUSTY DANE has been off
111 days. There were the odd chasers win like him
but the only one that was exposed had Grade 1 form
and he doesnt and that absence has to worry for an
exposed horse. ESKIMO PIE has been off 99 days
and as a horse aged 11 lightly raced this year he is
not for me. TRIPLE BLUFF has a long absence and
as an exposed Chaser I couldnt find a similar winner.
LITTLE BLACKBEETLE is too inexperienced for a
mare. ANSWER ME has just 2 runs this season. I
looked at horses like him from 2m 5f or shorter and
just two runs that year and found a poor 1-49 record.
LITTLE RORT is rated far lower than most and has a
horrible task at the weights and should be out of his
depth. IRISH LEGEND certainly has the ability but I
do have some issues with him. He comes here from a
Chase and well exposed and these horses have not
been winning these races. You have to wonder if he
is in form. He has pulled up twice in a row and his
last run was only 3 weeks ago. TABARAN has a
pretty solid profile with a recent race and although
he has limitations he should run his race which is
something not all of these can say.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

He is exposed and only 3 Exposed horses won in the
20 races. However they all had Grade 1 form as he does
as well. Exposed horses with Past Grade 1 form in these
selling races had a 3-4 record and all 3 winners were 10
and 11 year olds as he is.

* Horses with Grade 1 form before
* Running within 7 weeks
* Aged 9 or more
* Having run this season
* 6 horses had that profile in 20 races
* They finished W W W W W 8
* The only loser was an outsider
* Exposed 11 year olds with this profile were 2-2
* ATTORNEY GENERAL looks interesting statistically

He is a problem horse and hasnt won in a while
but he is down to bottom grade with a recent run.
Just 4 months ago he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a
competetive 0-120 handicap and that form would
be good enough to win this. He lost his way after
that but last time was a much better run and I see
him having the best profile in the race

Best Priced 11/2 sportingbet

Guy Ward

To visit Guys site click here ==> free horse racing tips

Saturday Horse Racing Tip

I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f – 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC Betfred

Best Wishes

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Weatherbys Champion Bumper

A good day yesterday for the blog with a nice 5/1 winner Whicita Lineman

The main message for full members of mathematician betting also picked out 12/1 winner Go Native

and 2/1 winner Quevega

Today on the blog we have a snippet from Guys  main message.

Fingers crossed for another winner today.

WEDNESDAY 5.15

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) 2m 1/2f

5/1 Rite Of Passage, 5/1 Sicilian Secret, 7/1 Dunguib, 10/1 Quel Esprit, 10/1 Quinola Des Obeaux, 14/1 Gagewell Flyer, 14/1 Shinrock Paddy, 16/1 Cadspeed, 16/1 Meath All Star, 22/1 Henry King, Cranky Corner, 33/1 Morning Supreme, Red Harbour, Some Present,  Bygones Of Brid,
40/1 Lead The Parade,  Long Strand,  Double Dash, 50/1 Latin America, 50/1 Pepe Simo, Lightening Rod, Abroad, 100/1 Benbane Head, Fennis Boy.

The Bumper is always a nightmare and Willie Mullins is
mob handed again with 9 runners which is ridiculous. It
seems that 14 of the 24 runners at 33/1 and more are
hard to fancy and it looks like we have 11 runners at
under 33/1. Ireland have won the last 5 renewals and 7
of the last 8 as well three of which were won by Willie
Mullins so they clearly dominate.

Statistically you want a horse that has won in a big field. The last 11 winners had all done that and had all won in fields of 16-24-15-27-28-24-17-19-20-22-17 runners. I would want a horse that won it a field of at least 13 runners. Thats quite interesting as SICILIAN SECRET has won in a 7 runner field only and he is the big talking horse. I would also take out all the English runners that dont come from Grade 1 tracks. I would  be against all the English runners that ran once. All 26 horses that had previously ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Bumper lost in this race so I would rule these out as well. I would demand a horse that won last time out. I would be opposing horses that ran within the previous fortnight. I would rather not have a 4 year old. I’d oppose all horses aged 6 that had under 3 career starts. We are still left with 8 horses after going through all those angles. I would ignore horses that lost more races than they won. I’m taking
out the French Bred horses as none have yet won or placed
in the race. I would ignore all horses that are 40/1 and over on the Exchanges. This leaves a shortlist of 3 runners. I will name the shortlist but to take it any further I would have to manufacture some unsafe trend or take a wild guess but my 3  “Best profiles” are these

GAGEWELL FLYER -RITE OF PASSAGE -SHINROCK PADDY

SELECTION

RITE OF PASSAGE Each Way

Two interesting and conflicting things about this selection. Dermot Weld won a Cheltenham race in the late 1980′s. Since 1990 Weld has a 0-49 record at the Festival and that included several beaten favourites. You can argue
that a trend like that makes him a negative and it will
excite all the “Trainer Trends” punters but I dont see it
like that. This trainer is one of the best trainers in the
World. He will be more determined than ever to win a
race again here. The other interesting thing about the
trainer and his horse is this. Reading in the Irish Press
(as you do) about the race a few days ago I came accros
a storythat interested me.

Dermot Weld was at the races some weeks ago and he
went up to Willie Mullin’s Mother – and duly told her
that whatever Willie Mullins runs in the Cheltenham
Bumper he would beat him with RITE OF PASSAGE whom he fancied big time. Thats the bet for me

SELECTION – RITE OF PASSAGE EACH WAY 5/1

Blog Comment – The Odds have now dropped slightly since this was advised to full members earlier today.

Best price now 7/2 in many places PaddyPower, canbet, Tote , Ladbrokes etc

Analysis provided by Guy Ward

To visit Guys site click here === > uk Horse Racing Tips

Saturday Racing Bets from RacingTrends.co.uk

Saturday Horse Racing Bets From www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Gustavo (1.25 Sandown) –

best price 33/1 (sporting bet / skybet) – EACH WAY

Approved Force (3.05 Sandown)

– take 22/1 best odds guaranteed atWilliam Hill – EACH WAY

Diriculous (3.30 Great Leighs)

- take 2/1 best odds guaranteed at William Hill / Stan James / Boyle Sports – WIN

Saturday Racing

First some trends – 15 years worth

2.35 Sandown – Tingle Creek Chase – 2 miles (Grade 1)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
12 of the last 15 winners have come from the top three in the betting.
Price:
9 of the last 15 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter.
Position
LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 8 of the last 15 winners.
Seasonal
debutants: Horses making their seasonal debuts have a good record with
7 wins from 25 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have produced
a £8.50 profit (ROI +34%).
Market
position LTO: Horses that were first or second favourites last time
out have provided 13 winners of the 15 winners.
LTO
course: Horses that raced at Exeter last time out have a good record
with 4 of the 17 qualifiers going onto win this race. Backing all qualifiers
would have yielded a £5.83 profit (+34.3%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market:
Horses ranked fifth or higher in the betting have provided just 1 winner
from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £33.00 (ROI -82.5%).
Price:
Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have recorded no wins from 44 qualifiers.
Position
LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse last time out (and
completed the course) have produced just 2 winners from 34 qualifiers
for a loss of £22.50 (ROI -66.2%).
LTO
course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham or Ascot last time out have
a surprisingly poor record with only 3 wins from 37 qualifiers for a
loss of £25.67 (ROI -69.4%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites
(inc. joints): There have been 6 winning favourites (including joints)
from 16 for a small loss of 82 pence.
Age:
5 year olds have won 3 races from 8 qualifiers (SR 37.5%); 6 year olds
have won 2 races from 13 qualifiers (SR 15.4%); 7 year olds have won
5 races from 23 qualifiers (SR 21.7%); 8 year olds have won 3 races
from 23 qualifiers (SR 13%); 9 year olds and older have won 2 races
from 33 qualifiers (SR 6.1%).

Trends analysis: favourites
have a fairly good record, but it looks best to concentrate on the top three
in the betting as they have provided 80% of the winners. Indeed focusing on
horses priced 15/2 or shorter has provided every single winner in the last 15
years. From there, pay special attention to horses either making their seasonal
debuts, and/or those who were first or second in the betting on their most recent
start. Moving onto negatives, if they raced at Cheltenham or Ascot last time
out this then there is almost certainly value looking elsewhere, as is there
looking for horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO (having completed
course). This process should pinpoint a clear trends pick. In terms of age,
5 years have a good record from a small number of runners, while 9 year olds
or older look poor value.

Conclusion – Master Minded
has a good trends profile; slightly better than second favourite TidalBay, but
TidalBay looks the value price of the pair to me.

3.05 Sandown – Listed handicap hurdle 2 miles ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
Second, third and fourth favourites have won 7 races from 49 qualifiers
for a profit of £11.50 (ROI +23.5%).
Position
LTO: 10 of the last 15 winners won last time out. Backing all qualifiers
would have produced a profit of £13.33 (ROI +20.2%).
Weight
carried: The bottom five in the weights (inc. joints) have a good record
with 10 wins from 82 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded
a profit of £23.50 (ROI +28.7%).
Racing
Post Speed ratings: Topspeed in the Racing Post has had 5 top rated
/ joint top rated winners for a profit of £29.25 (ROI +162.5%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites:
There have been 3 winning favourites from 15 qualifiers for a loss of
£8.17 (ROI -57.5%).
Price:
Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 88 qualifiers
for a loss of £62.00 (ROI -70.5%).
Weight
carried: The top five in the weights have a poor record with only 2
wins from 73 qualifiers and a loss of £69.67 (ROI -88.2%).
Days
since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 7 weeks or more
have produced 0 winners from 35 qualifiers.
Beaten
favourites: 25 beaten favourites have run in this race and all have
lost.

GENERAL STATS

Age:
4 year olds have won 5 races from 49 qualifiers (SR 10.2%); 5 year olds
have won 5 races from 74 qualifiers (SR 6.8%); 6 year olds have won
4 races from 51 qualifiers (SR 7.8%); 7 year olds plus have won 1 race
from 45 qualifiers (SR 2.2%).

Trends analysis: favourites
have a poor record which is no surprise considering the race usually attracts
a big field and hence is a competitive affair. Having said that outsiders have
a poor record also, so it seems best to focus on horses priced under 20/1. The
bottom five in the weights have won 67% of the races from just 37% of the runners,
so these horses merit close scrutiny, as do horses won last time out. Horses
to avoid seem to be horses at the top of the weights, beaten favourites last
time out, 7 year olds and older, and horses that have been off the track for
7 or more weeks.

Conclusion – from a trends
perspective Spear Thistle looks the one to be on.

At an each way price Approved
Force looks interesting. Had good form as 3yo and he looks overpriced. Hills
offer best odds guaranteed at 22/1 and that rates good each way value.

2.00 Sandown – Henry VIII Novices’ Chase – 2 miles (Grade
2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites
(inc. joints): There have been 10 winning favourites (including joints)
from 17 qualifiers for a profit of £4.81 (ROI +28.3%).
Market:
14 of the last 15 winners have come from the top two in the betting.
Price:
14 of the last 15 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter.
LTO
winners: 10 of the last 15 winners won last time out.
Recent
form: 23 horses have come into the race having finished first or second
on all of their last three starts and 8 have won.
Jumping:
All 15 winners came into the race having never fallen / unseated previously
in their careers.
LTO
course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record
with 6 of the 20 qualifiers going onto win this race.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market:
Horses third or bigger in the betting have provided just 1 winner from
50 qualifiers for a loss of £43.00 (ROI – 86%).
Price:
Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have recorded no wins from 27 qualifiers.
Course
winners: Course winners have only won once from 15 runners for a loss
of £12.62 (ROI -84.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Age:
4 and 5 year olds have won 5 races from 22 qualifiers (SR 22.7%); 6
year olds have won 7 races from 33 qualifiers (SR 21.2%); 7 year olds
plus have won 3 races from 22 qualifiers (SR 13.6%).

Trends analysis: the top
two in the market have dominated this event winning a all bar one of the races,
with favourites doing especially well winning 67% of them. From here you need
to focus on good jumpers as none of the winners had previous fallen in their
careers. Last time out winners have a good record, while horses that ran at
Cheltenham last time out have a good record also.

Conclusion – of the front
two in the market, second favourite Araldur has the better profile and at 7/2
looks better value.

——————–

1.25 Sandown – this is an
open handicap hurdle but one horse stands out for me at the early prices. Gustavo
hails from a stable that seems to be running into form and he has plenty of
other positives as well. He has a good record fresh, has a good record on right
handed tracks (4 wins, 2 placed from 8 ) and acts on the ground. The jockey
looks a potential negative but he has an 18% strike rate for Venetia Williams
so perhaps that is not a worry. At 33/1 best price at sporting bet and sky bet
/ mid 40s on Betfair he looks a worthwhile punt. If you don’t have an account
with sporting bet / sky bet then take the best odds guaranteed at either bet
365 or William Hill (both price up at 25/1).

3.30 Great Leighs – Diriculous
looks a solid favourite and 2/1 looks a fair bet to me.

This message was provided by Dave Renham of www.RacingTrends.co.uk