A Poor Saturday

Our usual free horse racing tip on a Saturday from Guy at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk


There is an Intolerable ammount of Racing today and
on days like this I never finish the messages the clock
finishes me. I could have stretched two extra messages
from the races I havent had a chance to look at. There
are two pieces in the Racing Post about how the racing
is particularly difficult today as it’s dominated by large
field handicaps. Unusual for them to acknowledge it but
it’s true. It is Intolerable and any bets and races finished
will be down to a lot of luck. Might be a frustrating and
a bit untidy today. I fear for anyone betting through it all
and rain and non runners make it more dangerous.

I have no firm properly staked advised bet today
for clients or for free blog readers.
You don’t come out ahead in the long run betting
hard when conditions do not suit.

Need something however today..well ponder the below

D o n c a s t e r   2.05

9/4 Mawasem, 9/2 Grey Mirage, 6/1 Warfare, 8/1 Assizes
10/1 Gold City, 10/1 Shamaal Nibras, 10/1 Well Painted
12/1 Chapter Seven, 14/1 Mister Music, 16/1 Kickingthelilly.

* This is a Class 2  3yo handicap over 8f
* These races are rare and a tiny sample size
* WELL PAINTED – Dont like him from 7f maiden
* Not with just the single run
* GOLD CITY – All seasonal debutants were lighter raced
* KICKINGTHELILLY is too exposed
* MISTER MUSIC – Surely beaten too far 7 days ago
* The above horses are ones I’d avoid
* ASSIZES – Unsafe well beaten on seasonal debut
* SHAMAAL NIBRAS – Not convinced and bad draw


* GREY MIRAGE – An option but don’t like the absence
* MAWASEM – I dont like the record of 3yo maidens much
* None have won with just 2 runs or from 7f races
* He has to be a positive but I cant match him to a winner
* WARFARE – I can forgive him a defeat at York
* CHAPTER SEVEN – Better than he showed last time
* Comes from a hot race where he never had a good position
* Nothing went right and hampered and eased once beaten
* CHAPTER SEVEN could run better than expected


CHAPTER SEVEN 12/1 Each  Way
at Betfred Bet365 Coral PaddyPower

Follow The Flag To The Payout Counter

Our usual Saturday installment from Guy at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Can he make it three profitable Saturday’s in a row?


Weather affected day and It’s Southwell that has
the most coverage as the only card that was safe.

I’m surprised an 11f handicap produces my best bet but
the 2.55pm may be best left to FOLLOW THE FLAG
a horse I have being saying for a while was well treated
and looking at his last run I think he needs this distance.
Decided against putting him up as a bet because I know
my angles in 11f handicaps are awkward and messy and
there is every chance a non runner killed my each way
options. I do see FOLLOW THE FLAG as my best bet.

S o u t h w e l l   2.55

7/2 Royal Swain, 7/2 Stanley Rigby, 9/2 Sail Home
6/1 Ostentation, 6/1 Rajamand, 10/1 Follow The Flag
10/1 Hits Only Jude, 12/1 Magic Echo.

This is an 11f Handicap for 0-75 rated horses. This is a
nightmare distance to sort out statistically as I have said
countless times before. I have few 11f races to work with
but I ran all these horses through some statistical tests to get a shortlist.
The horses with long absences struggled a bit and fell short.
So did the horses that were well beaten over 12f last time.
There are stamina doubts to consider with horses like HITS ONLY JUDE.
In the end I felt the most promising profiles were both FOLLOW THE FLAG
and SAIL HOME and whilst neither looked brilliant I can at least find a winner
like both which is a reasonable start. I have flagged up FOLLOW THE FLAG 4
times recently as well handicapped and he may well be able to win over this distance.
He appeals most with Sail Home the horse I fear the most. I could have SAIL HOME
as the saver in the race but I’d rather bet FOLLOW THE FLAG E/W as
I think he looked like he was crying out for a slower and
longer surface last time at Lingfield. He only just coped
with a faster track at a Mile but stayed on very well late
in the race and I think he could well take this race today.


FOLLOW THE FLAG 11/2 Ladbrokes – Sporting Bet  Each Way


Mathematician Betting Message

A copy of the www.mathematician-betting.co.uk message for today.

This is typical style of Guy’s daily output for clients there.

As you can see he knows a lot and works very hard.

Quite a few of his clients have been with him not for a month or six months even but for over 5 years !


No Strong Bet Today


2 Bets Today

Lingfield 4.55


Win Bet

Thirsk 6.30


Each Way Bet

* No Message Tomorrow *

This is the 11th message in a row without a break and
National Hunt cards tomorrow give me a chance for a
break and as I’m flagging now and tired it’s a good time.

Never really liked the cards on this day as there are so
many smaller field conditions races. The evening cards
are not as good as normal as fast ground has reduced a
few of the fields to uncompetetive races. I have decided
to go with two chosen bets on the day and both are big
prices in open handicaps. SEEK THE FAIR LAND has
a decent chance and looks overpriced to me but there’s
no margin for error in this race and we may need to be
lucky despite a good draw. DESERT STRIKE also has
a reasonable chance. Unusual bet for me as statistically
he is just average but I was given a good word for him
earlier in the week and having watched his last run in
the understanding he wasn’t fancied last time I liked a
performance that showed he had a lot in hand. Think
he is worth a bet as there are lots of horses I dislike in
this race and there are 4 places available. Worth a bet.


Message Thoughts

Not that many places that I want to go today. I have a
hatred of Ascot and find it beats me more often than it
helps me so nothing there except the Victoria Cup stats
and I am only doing those as its the showcase handicap
of the day. I also hate the Haydock mixed card as usual.

There a lots of races I can’t get serious in. I dont want
to get dragged into smaller field races. The Maidens or
the trial races , conditions races or the pattern contests
are all unpleasant. I have looked at a few of these from
a safe distance but these rarely throw up stronger bets.

Far too many of those today and not that many suit me
today. It is normally a weak Saturday for us. Only doing
a short portfolio of races I feel I can offer something in.


Friday’s Summary

One bet and a winner in GALA CASINO STAR which was
welcome after an unsteady few days. Hopefully that was a
sign of things to come. I thought the message was the best
for a while. Seemed to be lots of winners in there.
Overall  a strong message and with quite a lot going our way
it felt like it worked on a day I was forced into summarising more.


P R O F I L E S   &  P R E V I E W S

Nottingham 1.50

9/4 Select Committee, 7/2 Secret Venue, 5/1 Absa Lutte
6/1 Atlantic Beach, 7/1 Black Baccara, 10/1 Bilash
14/1 Micky Mac, 14/1 Yurituni.

Unpleasant 5f Handicap to start with. Weak profiles for the
likes of BILASH and MICKY MAC. I found YURITUNI not
safe enough and unlike any winners. SELECT COMMITTEE
lacks a bit of backclass and because of that I just failed to get him
into safe statistical territory as all similar horses needed 3 runs that year.
I felt the same with SECRET VENUE who’s younger but has just
1 run this year. I am oppose these horses. I think one of 3 horses should be considered here

* BLACK BACCARA – Well raced filly with chances
* ABSA LUTTE – Older Mare but offers enough
* ATLANTIC BEACH – Solid enough profile

Lingfield 2.10

Seasonal debutants have won the last 6 Chartwell Stakes
but’s time for a change now. DEVER DREAM is having
her first run but the only winners as experienced as her
had by then achieved Group 1 Class before and she lacks
that. PYRRHA and TROPICAL PARADISE also racing
first time out are a little bit exposed to be doing that so
with all 3 of these badly drawn I expect the winner will
have run this year. No 3 year old that had raced at least
5 times before won with under 2 runs that season which
is a problem for EUCHARIST and no 3yo has won this
coming from 6f like PERFECT TRIBUTE. Overall the
safest choice looks to be FLAMBEAU the favourite.

Lingfield 2.40

100/30 Field Of Miracles, 4/1 Date With Destiny
5/1 Palm Pilot, 6/1 Zain Al Boldan, 7/1 Always The Lady
10/1 Galivant, 12/1 Al Mayasah, 12/1 Saint Helena
20/1 Barathea Dancer.

The Oaks trial looks destined for a horse that’s ran this
year. No past winners came from 3yo handicaps which
and PALM PILOT. The horses winning 10f maidens
all had more experience than ALWAYS THE LADY
and more runs that year. DATE WITH DESTINY is
respected but I think FIELD OFF MIRACLES might
improve past her and she would be my choice.

Nottingham 2.55

9/4 Shernando, 5/2 Hallstatt, 9/2 Bollin Greta
6/1 Emrani, 6/1 Wild Desert, 12/1 Daylami Dreams

This is a 14f Handicap. I looked at 112 similar races at this time of year.
Horses aged 4 coming from 3yo handicaps first time out are 2-22.
However fillies were 2-2 and Males had a 0-20 record and SHERNANDO
fails that as a male. The two winners also had much more experience and less
weight so I am avoiding SHERNANDO. Also out are BOLLIN GRETA
and DAYLAMI DREAMS both older seasonal debutants and not like any of the 112 winners.

These are my negatives.

EMRANI – Hard to read perhaps didnt do enough last time
WILD DESERT – Very hard to read but a possible
HALLSTATT – Limitations but easily the Fittest horse

Lingfield 3.10

The Derby Trial is another messy trials race.
HURRICANE HIGGINS would be my choice.

Ascot 3.25

Totesport Victoria Cup (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 7f

8/1 Horseradish, 10/1 Hawkeyethenoo, 14/1 Al Muheer
14/1 Brae Hill, 14/1 Shamandar, 16/1 Castles In The Air
16/1 Excellent Guest, 16/1 Lowther, 16/1 Nasri, Lutine Bell
20/1 Fathsta, Himalya, 20/1 Mon Cadeaux, 20/1 Zero Money
25/1 Gouray Girl, 25/1 Noble Citizen, 25/1 Sunraider
28/1 Layla´s Hero, 33/1 Advanced, 33/1 Bay Knight
33/1 Bravo Echo, 33/1 Dhaular Dhar, 33/1 Douze Points
33/1 Golden Desert, 33/1 Manassas, 33/1 Oasis Dancer,
33/1 Parisian Pyramid, Rulesn´regulations, Corporal Maddox.

* The Victoria Cup is a 7f Handicap for 0-110 horses
* Since 1990 there has been 18 renewals of this race
* Avoid horses with 3 or more runs that season
* Avoid horses from 5f races
* Oppose horses aged 7 or more (0-46)
* Oppose exposed horses absent 7 weeks or more
* Oppose exposed 6 year olds with 1 run this season
* Oppose exposed horses absent 7 weeks or more
* Avoid fillies who are 0-23 in this race
* Oppose exposed horses from 8f races if 1 run this year
* Oppose exposed horses from 6f or shorter
* Oppose exposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time
* Avoid any horses from a Conditions race (0-41)
* Avoid 4 year olds with 13 + runs unless with Group 1 form
* Seasonal debutants have a 3-95 record
* All 3 were male aged 4 or 5
* They all came from 7f races and had 7-20 runs
* Horses with 6 or more career wins are 0-71
* Horses with 9st 5lbs or more had a poor 1-73 record
* Horses from 6f races won 4 renewals
* All 3 that did it had 1 run this year
* None that did it ran within 2 weeks (0-29)
* Only 2 past winners ran in Group class before
* None were aged 6 or more
* Those doing that with under 21 career runs were 0-38
* Horses that come from 8f or more won 4 races
* Those that had 13 or more runs doing this were 1-73
* That winner ran within 2 weeks


* HORSERADISH – similar to 1999 winner – Draws a worry
* ZERO MONEY – Statistically fine if he is fit enough
* BRAE HILL – Acceptable profile

Nottingham 3.30

Hard race and I couldnt sort it.
BOUNTY BOX – Dont like the profile much
BEYOND DESIRE – Definate chance
KHOR SHEED – Acceptable
ANNE OF KIEV – Unmatchable but interesting
There is one bet that I see worth having if playing
ANNE OF KIEV as a Place Only Bet at evens

Haydock 3.40

6/1 Remember Now, 10/1 Knight In Purple
10/1 Tatispout, 12/1 Ballybriggan, 12/1 Higgy´s Ragazzo
12/1 Pires, 12/1 Rebel Dancer, 14/1 Jubail, 16/1 Eradicate
16/1 Hunterview, 16/1 Pokfulham, 20/1 Barizan
20/1 Chaninbar, 20/1 Drill Sergeant, 20/1 Safari Journey
25/1 Rio Gael, 33/1 Andhaar, 33/1 Olympian, 33/1 Orsippus
33/1 Tarkari, 40/1 Caravel, 40/1 Mason Hindmarsh
50/1 Maoi Chinn Tire.

* The Swinton Handicap Hurdle is over 2m
* Always play with a few trends and shortlist
* Horses aged 7 or more have struggled
* You ideally want at least 4 hurdle starts
* You want a horse with under 13 hurdle starts
* Your horse must have won in their last 6 races
* Avoid all horses from handicaps in Class 3 or less
* You want a horse thats ran within 80 days
* All past winners had ran in a Class 2 race before
* Horses are strong coming from Novice Hurdles
* They are best with under 4-8 runs when 1-2-3-4 last time
* Most winners had 11st or less weight
* The two I shortlisted from these are below

Haydock 4.10

15/8 Victoire De Lyphar, 11/4 Society Rock
3/1 Bated Breath, 4/1 Royal Rock, 20/1 Tamagin.

This is a Conditions race over 6f with a history
going back to 1997. Dandy Nicholls keeps trying
and failing to win this race and runs the seasonal
debutant VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR. Only 2 past
winners won first time out and none were 4yo’s
like him. BATED BREATH is very sexy and in
the Cammidge Trophy we could clearly see how
unlucky he was. Thats not to say he would have
won though. If you take the 4 year olds that ran
in Listed races with 1 run this season you find a
few winners. SOCIETY ROCK shares the profile.
Of the pair I prefer SOCIETY ROCK. He is from
a better trial race. He has more experience which
has been an advantage and he has more backclass
as well and overall he fits in much better to past
winners than BATED BREATH. I wouldnt rule
out ROYAL ROCK who is almost right and not
too dissimilar to the 2002 winner who was older
but overall the best profile is SOCIETY ROCK.

Lingfield 4.55

More Live Football At Totesport.com Handicap
(Turf) (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 7f

9/2 Bowmaker, 11/2 Den´s Gift, 13/2 Space Station
8/1 Buxton, 8/1 Wilfred Pickles, 10/1 Free For All
10/1 Seek The Fair Land, 12/1 Red Yarn, 14/1 Aldermoor
16/1 Leadenhall Lass, 16/1 Nezami, 16/1 Slugger O´toole
20/1 Aye Aye Digby.

* This is a 7f Handicap for horses rated 0-84
* There are 156 similar races at this time of year
* You want a high draw in these races
* Since 2008 there were 23 Handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2-3 had a poor 1-73 record
* Recent winners came from these stalls
* 11-5-16-12-18-6-14-10-11-15-17-8-10
* AYE AYE DIGBY is out drawn 1
* No exposed horse won absent more than 7 months
* ALDERMOOR doesnt appeal in stall 2
* He is an exposed debutant and may need the run
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE has a poor draw in stall 3
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE is exposed and first time out
* RED YARN is not drawn well in stall 4
* She is a 4yo filly racing first time out
* 4yo fillies doing that with 7 + runs had a 0-38 record
* FREE FOR ALL is 4 and last ran in a Maiden last year
* Horses doing that with 2 or more runs were 0-15
* I don’t like her inexperience or his stable
* LEADENHALL LASS is a mare with 1 run this year
* Mares with 1 run this season have a 2-61 record
* None of these won or placed last time out
* She find it hard to follow up with just 1 run
* She won a small field 0-74 last time and this is better
* BOWMAKER has a good draw but a questionable profile
* I looked at 4yo Males with under 13 career starts
* BOWMAKER is 4 and has only raced 7 times
* Those 4 year olds with 1-2-3 runs that year were 2-73
* Not a good record and both winners had Class 2 form
* Those like BOWMAKER who didnt were 0-48
* NEZAMI is respected despite being underraced
* I cant find a similar winner his age
* Not exposed with 1 run this year and an absence
* I Suspect he will need 1 more run this season
* WILFRED PICKLES is 5 and drops down in distance
* No problem doing that but most winners had more backclass
* He has no form beyond this class and it hurts his chance
* So far he has lost in all 15 races on turf
* All came from lower handicap marks as well
* His 42 day absence hurts him as well
* I also wonder if the ground may be too quick
* Given all that and stall 5 of 13 he isnt for me
* BUXTON is fine statistically
* I just question whether he is up to this class
* Most of his runs/wins are against slightly weaker horses
* He is up in class today as well
* One or two may have more talent
* He seems to need to go round a bend as well


* DEN´S GIFT has a decent profile
* He is 7 with 3 runs this year running well last time
* I found 3 winners with his profile
* All 3 did have a bit less weight
* He is also 0-19 on Grass and has one of the weaker riders
* I see him as shortlistable though

* SPACE STATION is a 5yo male down from 8f
* SPACE STATION was well beaten last time 5 days ago
* He caught the eye last time but he often does
* I ran his profile carefully
* I found 1 similar winner with slight differences
* That winner had just over a weeks break not under
* That winner had less weight as well
* He didnt come from the sand either
* He isnt that well handicapped either
* He will also have to make sure he runs prominently
* He could throw away a good draw if he doesnt

* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a strong profile
* Male 5 year old exposed with 2 runs this season
* Coming from a 7f handicap with Class 2 backclass
* I found 4 similar winners with that profile
* Those not beaten more than 10 lengths were best
* Those not winning last time were best
* Similar horses had a 2-5 record
* All his wins are on Sand but hes had few turf oppurtunities
* Last time on Grass he was 3rd in a 0-95 Handicap
* That was a much better race and he was out of the weights
* Absent more than 10 weeks before that race as well
* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a serious chance

Thirsk 6.00

Not enough of these 6f sellers to draw any firm conclusions
but I would rather have the older horses especially if having a recent run.
Last years 3rd BONNIE PRINCE BLUE has a sound chance and MARK ANTHONY could also go well.
Its easier to go with MARK ANTHONY on his last run but just
on profiles BONNIE PRINCE BLUE comes out best.

Warwick 6.15

My stats say No as no similar winner had 4 + runs

Thirsk 6.30

5/1 We´ll Deal Again, 13/2 Desert Strike, 8/1 Mullglen
9/1 River Falcon, 10/1 Bossy Kitty, 10/1 Chosen One
10/1 Dancing Freddy, 10/1 Sir Nod, 12/1 Leonid Glow
14/1 Clear Ice, 14/1 Mandalay King, 16/1 Incomparable
20/1 Sea Salt, Belinsky, 33/1 Ace Of Spies, 66/1 Sea Rover.

* This is a 6f Handicap
* I found the following to all be negatives
* The above 3 have hideous draws
* RIVER FALCON too old for one run this year
* LEONID GLOW – Absent too long as a mare
* SEA ROVER – BELINSKY both weak
* ACE OF SPIES doesnt offer enough
* CLEAR ICE – No 4yo won from a seller
* ACE OF SPIES is unsafe
* WE´LL DEAL AGAIN exposed 4yo from 5f
* Similar horses were 1-59 that winner had more backclass
* DANCING FREDDY fails the same angles
* CHOSEN ONE – Lack of backclass troubles me
* MULLGLEN – Exposed 5yo 1 run this year from 5f
* Similar horses had a 0-17 record which troubles me
* MANDALAY KING – Unimpressive profile
* SIR NOD – Age and absence leaves him vulnerable


* DESERT STRIKE – Shortlisting him
* Not because he is statistically sound he is just average
* I have had a tip for him from a good source
* Very eyecatching on video last time as well

Thirsk 7.00

* Couldnt sort this race out
* I would not have backed these
* Lady Chaparral – Too inexperienced for 4yo filly
* The Caped Crusader – Not overkeen from 3yo handicap

Thirsk 7.30

13/2 Trans Sonic, 8/1 More Than Many, 8/1 Mujaadel
8/1 Our Boy Barrington, 8/1 Ravi River, 10/1 Legal Legacy
10/1 Rosbay, 14/1 Emeralds Spirit, 14/1 Fazza, 16/1 Mozayada
16/1 Tobrata, 20/1 Apache Warrior, 20/1 Call Of Duty 20/1 Hill Tribe,
20/1 Red Scintilla, 33/1 Baltimore Jack 33/1 Chambers, 33/1 Fifty Moore.

* This is a Mile Handicap
* I looked at all Handicaps here with 12-18 runners
* There were 23 of these races since 2009
* The best place to be drawn is stalls 3-14
* Recent winners came from these stalls
* 7 6 7 9 4 5 3 10 7 4 12 4 3 8 6 6 9
* LEGAL LEGACY – Profile not good enough to ignore draw
* EMERALDS SPIRIT – Negative profile and draw
* MUJAADEL won a 7f handicap last time
* Horses doing that had a 1-40 record trying to follow up
* That winner had 4 runs this year he has two
* He looks unsafe to me
* OUR BOY BARRINGTON – comes from 3yo handicap
* He is a bit too exposed to be doing that
* RED SCINTILLA – Fillies from 3yo handicaps are 0-31
* TOBRATA – lacks backclass from 7f with 1 run this year
* ROSBAY – down from 10f and 1 run this year
* Thats not a safe profile and he is unsteady
* FIFTY MOORE – Not easy to like first time
* CALL OF DUTY ran too badly last time
* HILL TRIBE – Didnt offer enough
* APACHE WARRIOR – Too inexperienced
* MOZAYADA – comes out badly
* MORE THAN MANY – respected but not quite right
* RAVI RIVER – respected but old to be following up
* FAZZA – Strong runner
* TRANS SONIC comes out well
* Exposed 8yo coming from 7f with 3 + runs that year
* Beaten last time but not losing more than 10 lengths
* Similar horses had a 3-5 record


TRANS SONIC – Win Bet 8/1

FAZZA – Saver Bet 12/1

Warwick 7.45

This is a 3yo handicap over 7f. I have Freckenham as a
negative failing a 0-36 statistic.  Shostakovich was not
able to be matched to a winner. Tamareen just failed as
he didn’t have the backclass and Nawaashi is supossed to
be the owners second string. I don’t like the race but the
best profile was ROSSETTI. Horses with his profile had
a 6 W 2 record so I will go with him but dislike this race.

Warwick 8.15 – I wouldnt oppose APRIL FOOL



Check For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses

Scottish Grand National

AYR 3.25

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 5 Chase starts.
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-50 record
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 2-80 record
* None have won since 1997
* No horse placed at the Cheltenham festival has won this race
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-81
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days
* 7 of the last 9 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-16 record in this
* The last 11 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

I came down to 4 horses to consider.
Outsiders BALLYFITZ and REGAL HEIGHTS do have reasonable profiles.
ALWAYS RIGHT as having every chance as well.
It would be easy to go with ALWAYS RIGHT but perhaps as a saver
with MINELLA FOUR STAR the main choice of the pair.



This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

Horse Racing Tip For Newbury


THEATRE DANCE is a horse that might unsettle
us especially if he has to be pushed a bit early but I
have negatives in the race. He is from a stable that
are on fire. He’s well handicapped and must now be
fit for the 1st time this season and I like his chance.


7/2 Ogee, 5/1 Rey Nacarado, 6/1 Maktu, 8/1 Briery Fox
8/1 Scots Dragoon 8/1 Theatre Dance, 10/1 Double Dizzy
12/1 Noble Crusader , 20/1 Burren Legend.

* No Preview just the profiles I did not like
* The following are all Negatives with Poor Profiles

NOBLE CRUSADER – Wrong coming from 20f or less
MAKTU – Too much weight with a step up in trip
OGEE – Not convinced with 2 runs this year
BRIERY FOX – Too old for 1-2-3 runs this year
BURREN LEGEND – Didnt do enough last time
SCOTS DRAGOON – Exposed from Novice Chase no thanks

SELECTION – THEATRE DANCE each way is my choice

6/1 various spots inc sky Bet365 Tote vc BoyleSports blue square

Guy Ward

To visit Guys site click here ==> horse racing tips

Know Your All Weather Race Types

Know Your All Weather Race Types by David Renham

This is the second article in a series of three all weather articles – the first being on southwell Sires In this piece I am going to look at specific race types in attempt to help you, the reader, gain that important edge over “the crowd”. Many punters are put off the all weather due to the general standard of racing – low grade handicaps, claimers and sellers are regular events on the all weather circuit, but there are plenty of positive and negative angles that once appreciated can improve your chances of making a profit. The focus of this article is these lower grade contests.

The data for this article is taken from last six years; ROI stands for return on investment; SR stands for strike rate and LTO stands for last time out. Unless otherwise stated, all profit and losses are quoted to industry starting price.

Claiming races

Market – the top three in the betting have provided just under 74% of the winners. Favourites have an especially good record in all weather claimers scoring 35.6% of the time. Indeed backing all favourites “blind” would have yielded very small losses of 4%. Indeed backing all favourites since the inception of Betfair SP would have seen you break even and that is taking commission into account. Longer priced horses have a poor record and runners priced 16/1 or bigger show significant losses. Their record reads 73 wins from 3570 qualifiers (SR 2%) showing losses of £1473.00 to (ROI -41.3%). At the completely rank outsider stage – horses priced 80/1 or bigger have produced 425 consecutive losers with just 8 of them managing a place.

Last time out – horses that won LTO go on to win again just over 25% of the time in claimers, and backing all such runners would have produced losses of around 11%. Horses that won on the all weather LTO are much better betting propositions that horses that won on the turf LTO – strike rates of 26% against 15% confirm this. Indeed, regardless of LTO position, it is an advantage to have raced on the all weather LTO rather than on the turf LTO.

Age – interestingly older horses have a better strike rate than younger ones in all age claimers. Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined strike rate of 8.7%, whereas horses aged 6 or older have a combined strike rate of 14.4%.

Sex of horse – In claimers colts, geldings and horses are 1.62 times more likely to win than fillies and mares.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Horses that are racing for a new stable in all weather claiming races score around 9% of the time, but backing all runners would have lost you about 46% (46p for every £1 wagered);

2. Maiden runners have a poor record in claimers scoring just 6% of the time and losing around 37%;

3. Horses that have recorded 2 or more course successes have a decent strike rate of 17% and backing all runners would have yielded very small losses of 2.2%;

4. Horses having their first ever racecourse outing are worth avoiding with only 7 wins from 229 qualifiers (SR 3.1%). Backing all debutants would have produced significant losses of £149.50 (ROI -65.3%);

5. Horses that raced in a claiming race last time have a strike rate of 15%; compare this to horses that raced in a selling race last time whose strike rate is under 8%;

6. The following trainers secured a strike rate of 20% or better during the 6-year study (from at least 60 runners) – Tom Dascombe, Dandy Nicholls, Kevin Ryan, Jim Boyle, Jack Pearce, Gary Moore.


Selling races

Market – the top three in the betting have provided 71.7% of the winners with favourites winning a third of all races. Backing all selling favourites would have yielded a loss of 6.8%. There are two favourite stats worth noting; firstly horses priced 8/11 or shorter have scored over 70% of the time and backing them all would have produced a profit of 10%; secondly favourites returning to the track less than 10 days since their last run have provided 89 winners from 227 (SR 39.2%) for a profit of £19.55 (ROI +8.6%). Runners priced 25/1 or bigger have an extremely poor record – just 20 wins from 1887 qualifiers (SR 1.1%) showing huge losses of £1164.00 to (ROI -61.7%). Horses priced 50/1 or bigger have produced just 3 winners from 890 runners for losses of over 81%.

Last time out – horses that won LTO are not good propositions in selling races. They win roughly 1 time in 5 but backing all runners would have yielded losses of around 19%. One area worth noting is that horses that ran LTO in 3yo or all age maidens have a dreadful strike rate – they have provided just 14 winners from 317 qualifiers (SR 4.4%).

Age – as with claiming races, older horses have a better strike rate than younger ones in all age claimers. However, the bias is less pronounced. Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined strike rate of 9%, whereas horses aged 6 or older have a combined strike rate of 12.2%.

Sex of horse – in sellers once again colts, geldings and horses have an edge over fillies and mares. However, it is not quite as clear cut as it was in claimers with the male to female success ratio in sellers standing at 1.4.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Horses upped in class have won just 4.5% of the time; horses racing in the same class as LTO have won 10.3% of the time; horses dropping in class have won 11.4% of the time;

2. Trainers Peter Evans, Jim Boyle, Gary Moore and George Baker are trainers who have good records in selling races on the all weather;

3. Horses carrying high weights in sellers have a better strike rate than those carrying low weights. Horses carrying 9st or more have a strike rate of 12.6%; horses carrying under 9st have a strike rate of 8.8%;

4. For “in running” punters it should be noted that the early leader of a 5f seller goes on to win over 25% of the time.


Handicap races (class 6 or lower)

Market – the top three in the betting have provided just over 54% of the winners. Favourites win around 1 race in 4 (26% to be precise) for losses of under 7%. The most successful favourites in handicaps have been in 2yo nurseries – a strike rate of 30.4% and profits of 6%. 3yo only handicaps see favourites perform solidly thanks to a strike rate of 30.9% with losses amounting to less than 2%. Lingfield has been most successful track for low grade handicap favourites producing a break even situation to SP.

Last time out – LTO winners score 16.6% of the time, with losses standing at 19%. However, if the LTO winners return to the track within 7 days their strike rate increases to 24%. These quick returns score 37% of the time and reach a break even situation if they start favourite. However, beware of LTO winners that start 10/1 or bigger in the betting – they have won just 4.4% of the time with steep losses of 38%.

Horses that ran in handicaps LTO are better betting propositions that horses that ran in non handicaps LTO – strike rates of 9% against 6.5% confirm this. The returns for each category though do not totally mirror the strike rates with losses of 21% for runners that ran in handicaps LTO, compared with losses of 25% for runners who ran LTO in non handicaps.

Sex of horse – the male to female success ratio is 1.3 in low grade handicaps open to both sexes. Percentage losses for male runners stand at only 17% compared with 28% for females. It is also should be noted that female runners have really struggled at Lingfield – their strike rate at the Surrey track is just 5.6% and losses are over 40%. Male runners have a definite advantage over female runners in these handicaps.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Female runners returning to the track after a break of 57 or more days have a poor record – just 92 wins from 1967 runners (SR 4.7%) for a loss of £788.17 (ROI -40.1%);

2. Colts when starting favourites have been fairly rare (around 40 per year). However, of the 225 qualifiers over the past 6 seasons, 86 have won (SR 38.2%) for a profit of £50.05 (ROI +22.2%);

3. Runners priced 25/1 or bigger have won 2.1% of the time for losses to SP of 25%. However, since Betfair Starting Price was introduced in 2008 you could have made a profit by backing them all at BSP. Despite having only 70 winners from 3717 runners, you would have made a profit of £730.88 (ROI +19.7%).

I hope this article has shown you that the all weather offers betting opportunities in all race types – you just need to do some digging!


Dave Renham is a leading researcher into uk horse racing.

His site at www.PunterProfits.com contains a lot more of his research work. Some is free and some is member only. It’s a good site for racing realists who believe that knowing your stats is a likely root to success.

The private boards there contain many interesting and highly past profitable threads maintained by members of punterprofits who obvioulsy have learnt a trick or two from all Dave’s horse racing research teachings.

Racing Post Chase Tip

One of the major races today is The Racing Post Chase over at Kempton.

Race analyst Guy Ward provides his thoughts on the race below.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Betting


Thanks for those of you who emailed to say thanks for a bit of extra winnings last week.  Not the full cigar but 9/1 each way returned a bit of profit.

I had a couple of requests to have a look at the Racing Post Chase this week on the free blog.

It’s one of the extra races I looked at for full members so here are my quick thoughts on it.


Racing Post Chase Handicap Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

5/1 Fistral Beach, 5/1 Nacarat, 6/1 Quinz, 8/1 Bakbenscher
9/1 Mostly Bob, 10/1 Sagalyrique, 12/1 Hey Big Spender
12/1 Tatenen, 14/1 Razor Royale, 16/1 Polyfast
20/1 Crescent Island, 20/1 Door Boy, 20/1 Ringaroses
25/1 Piraya, 33/1 Safari Adventures, 40/1 Free World
40/1 Mount Oscar.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 16 renewals of this race.
* Febuary and March have seen 136 Handicap Chases
* Thats 136 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher
* FISTRAL BEACH doesnt offer enough for me
* Not keen he has just 1 run this season
* No past winner of this race had 1 run that season
* In 136 of these races I looked at those with 1 run this year
* When coming from 22f or shorter there were 3 winners
* Those with 7 or more career starts were just 1-35
* That winner had less weight and a more recent run
* CRESCENT ISLAND has the same problems to overcome
* RINGAROSES is wrong with 1 run this season
* None of the 136 winners came from 18f or shorter
* All 32 lost and FREE WORLD fails that
* QUINZ comes from a Novice Chase
* No winner of this race came from an ordinary Novice Chase
* Horses doing that in 136 other races had a 3-59 record
* None were aged 7 like QUINZ (0-14)
* None had as much weight as he does either
* Horses beaten in a Novice Chase last time were 0-24
* QUINZ also fails that and doesnt come out well enough
* MOUNT OSCAR is out up in trip aged 12
* SAFARI ADVENTURES is exposed and up in trip
* He lacks the backclass to overcome that
* PIRAYA is exposed up in trip with 1-2-3 runs this season
* Similar horses had a 1-51 record
* That winner had more backclass than PIRAYA
* He also flopped in last years race and wants a small field
* RAZOR ROYALE won this race last year
* This year he has a much inferior preparation
* He is exposed this year and has far fewer prep runs
* He also has a nasty absence which doesnt help him
* I dont see him bouncing back to form with his profile
* MOSTLY BOB comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* He only has 9 career National Hunt Starts
* Horses from Novice Handicaps with under 13 runs are 0-14
* MOSTLY BOB fails that and looks wrong to me
* I looked at all 8 year olds from Novice Handicap Chases
* I found only 1 winner and he had far more backclass
* MOSTLY BOB only has 3 career Chase starts
* Thats very inexperienced and he fell in one of those chases
* The 16 winners of this race had the following Chase starts
* 9 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13
* The lightest raced chaser to win this Gloria Victus (2000)
* He had 5 runs which is far more experienced than he is
* MOSTLY BOB doesnt look right with 3 runs from handicaps
* DOOR BOY doesnt appeal much to me
* Well beaten on all  starts this year
* I couldnt find a winner like him in the 136 races
* His lack of form this year makes him vulnerable
* POLYFAST is 8 and won a Handicap Chase last time
* That was over 2m 5f and there are 4 similar winners
* They all had a more recent run than him
* They all had more backclass as well
* POLYFAST hasnt been out of Listed Class yet
* 3 or the 4 similar winners had Grade 1 form before
* They all came from higher in the weights as well
* His form over this far raises stamina doubts too
* Statistically he doesnt make the grade for me
* SAGALYRIQUE is 7 and comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* I found 1 similar winner doing that
* He did have a bit more backclass than he does
* The issue with SAGALYRIQUE is if he has the class
* My best guess is that he wont
* The overnight rain wont have helped him either
* With Blinkers and a Tongue Strap he doesnt feel like the one



* NACARAT doesnt have a major statistical problem
* The 2004 winner (Malborough) had a very similar profile
* His stable is out of form though
* HEY BIG SPENDER is 8 and won a 21f handicap last time
* I found 3 similar winners with that profile
* They all had Grade 1 form and a high weight and recent run
* HEY BIG SPENDER also fits that profile
* The 2001 and 1999 winners of this race had that profile
*  HEY BIG SPENDER has a good profile for me
* One doubt is whether he can recover from his last race
* Only 14 days ago it would be a small concern
* No horse won this from 2m 5f in the past fortnight
* The other is whether a right handed flat track suits
* All his best form came away from tighter tracks
* It was tight at Warwick last time but not right handed
* TATENEN is 7 and won a 22f handicap last time
* I found 1 similar winner in the 136 races
* TATENEN has to prove he stays 3 Miles today
* His 4 runs at 3m and more have been bad defeats
* He was not fancied in 3 of those 4 runs
* Wrong to assume he doesnt stay based on that record
* His trainer is on record as being unsure if he stays 3m
* Shortlistable on his profile his biggest issue is stamina
* BAKBENSCHER is hard to read from a Graduation Chase
* Plenty to like about his profile
* Not least a good recent win and strong form right handed
* Statistically he is hard to assess because of his last run
* The Positives far outweight the doubts for me


All 4 have at least one concern as mentioned above. I see
TATENEN placing but perhaps not staying well enough to
win. NACARAT is respected and looks saver material with
topweight. The last four winners were 8 year olds and that
and a recent run steers me towards  BAKBENSCHER

BAKBENSCHER Win Bet     9/1  at Bet365 and VC

( Nacarat – Optional Saver)

National Hunt Favourites who failed to finish – how do they perform next time out?

It’s an interesting question.

There is some logic to thinking that a horse who was favourite last time out must have some significant positive attributes.

If he failed to finish in his last race would that big blot on his most recent record put too many people off him next time and thus possibly present a value betting opportunity?

I am sure we could all scratch our chins, ponder and even waffle a load of hot air on the matter.

One way to provide a serious answer to such questions however is to get stuck into the stats and come up with an accurate truth.

A smarter way however is to let someone else do all that boring research work and you can then just examine the findings.

If you think that’s a good idea take a look here ==> National Hunt Favourite Stats

Free Racing Tip For Saturday

Another comprehensive analysis piece today from Guy Ward over at the mathematician site.

To visit his site click here ==>  Horse Racing Tipster



Totesport.com Grand National Trial
(Handicap Chase) Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m4f

11/2 West End Rocker, 13/2 Carruthers, 7/1 Mobaasher
8/1 King Fontaine, 8/1 Silver By Nature, 9/1 Le Beau Bai
9/1 Nicto De Beauchene, 10/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Sarde
20/1 Ballyfitz, 25/1 Etxalar, 25/1 Madison Du Berlais
33/1 Jaunty Journey, 40/1 Sound Accord.

* This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase.
* Haydock’s has had 14 renewals of this race

This is a Grand National trial and I think we should split the runners
into two categories. First of all the in form horses in the race that ran
very well last time out and who are likely to be here to do their best.
Secondly the horses well beaten last time that might be using the race
to put the finishing touches on their Grand National chance.
Thats certainly looks like it has happened in the past as only In Form horses win this race.

* Last time out winners won 6 past renewals
* Last time out seconds won 4 past renewals
* Last time out 1st 2nd or 3rd won 12 of the 14 renewals
* Only 2 of the past winners were not placed last time
* One of these was 5th last time but had a long absence
* Another Fell at the 1st on their last run but won before it

I think you need to be against the horses that didnt run
very well last time. SILVER BY NATURE looks one to
oppose beaten too far last time and its interesting only 2
of the 14 winners carried 11st 4lbs or more. I would also
both high weights and not doing enough last time. Harder
to rule out CARRUTHERS. He isnt too unlike the winner
in 2008 (Miko De Beauchene) who had won the Chepstow
Welsh National and won this after a break aged 8 absent a
fair while. CARRUTHERS though has a longer break and
was well beaten last time and is only a small horse who is
best in a very small field and has never been placed in any
and ETXALAR are all horses that failed to do enough last
time out. I dont see BALLYFITZ as straight enough to be
winning and you’d expect him to be laid out for Aintree if
he gets in that race. The only winners from a Novice race
ran within 2 weeks and MAJOR MALARKEY has got 66
days absence and No past winners came from any Novice
Handicap to win. I’ve looked at every Handicap Chase in
March and Febuary in Class 2 and Higher and thats all 329
races at any distance in those grades. If you look at 7 year
olds that have No Graded form before and also have 13 or
more career starts you do not find many winners and none
were like SARDE. None had as long an absence or won at
this distance and none managed to win having only 2 runs
that season and I dont see SARDE having enough to win
this. There is an interesting angle about backclass because
12 of the 14 winners of this race had past form in either
a Listed or Graded race before. KING FONTAINE doesn’t
have that. He seems to have plenty of weight for a horse
without it. The only winners of this race without Listed or
Graded form had much less weight than he does and having
been raised 15lbs for his last win he has quite a bit to prove
and his trainer has said the 15lbs rise was harsh.



The issue with WEST END ROCKER s whether he has
recovered from a hard race at Warwick. Similar winners
of that race finished 4 6 11 in this race. Statistically he  is
respectable and earns a shortlist place comfortably.
I like MOBAASHER as he is a promising chaser who
has a progressive profile and looks well handicapped on his
hurdles form. Against him is he hasnt raced over fences this
season yet and I hope it doesnt catch him out.
It’s interesting NICTO DE BEAUCHENE’s full brother has
won this race before much as he was classier. He lacks a
run in Graded Class but both winners that lacked that did
look similar with a months break and a good last run and
I see NICTO DE BEAUCHENE as a serious runner. The
other option is mud loving LE BEAU BAI who finished
3rd in this race last year and should be thereabouts again.
The overnight rain swings me towards LE BEAU BAI.


LE BEAU BAI 9/1 in various spots
Ladbrokes , sky , Bet365, William Hill etc

Each Way

10 Year Trends For Three Big Races On Saturday

Here are 10 year trends for three big races on Saturday.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 10 renewals. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment, SR for strike rate.
1.50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Chase – 3m ½f

Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10.
Market: There were 3 winning second favourites, so 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 2 in the market.
Price: Horses priced 9/2  or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners.
LTO winners: 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out. Backing all 22 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £7.05 (ROI +32%).
LTO market position: 8 of the last 10 winners were either favourite or second favourite LTO.
Career starts: Horses with 11 career starts or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. Horses who have raced 3 times or less over fences (previous to this race) have won 8 of the last 10.
Price: Horses priced 5/1 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 29 qualifiers for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -67.2%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd or worse last time out have produced just 1 winner from 30 for a loss of £26.00 (ROI -86.7%).
Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds

have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced
5 winners from 19 qualifiers (SR 26.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 0 winners
from 18 qualifiers (SR 0%).
Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some strong positive pointers. 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 9/2 or shorter so this is a definite starting point, with favourites given the closest scrutiny as they have won half of the races. LTO winners have an excellent record and look for horses that have had no more than 3 runs over fences as they have won 80% of the races from 55% of the total runners. In terms of age it looks best to focus on those horses aged 7 or younger.

2.45 Haydock – Totescoop6 (Rendlesham) Hurdle– 3m

Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites  from 10 qualifiers showing a

profit of £1.48 (ROI +14.8%).
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
Favourites LTO: There have only been 6 horses that started favourite LTO but 4 of them have gone on to win this race.
Class LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest LTO.
Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Haydock.
Breeding: French breds have won 6 of the races from just 20 runners although profits have been modest at £2.48 (ROI +12.2%).
Trainers: Francois Doumen has won the race 3 times since 2002.
Breeding: Just 2 wins from 23 for British bred runners showing losses of £12.00 (ROI -52.2%).
Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 6 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 8 year olds have won 1 from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 9 year olds plus have won 3 from 21 qualifiers (SR 14.3%).
Trends analysis: this is a race where the positive trends tend to dominate. The market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. A decent run LTO has been a plus, as has racing in Grade 1 or 2 company LTO.  French breds have a good record as does trainer Francois Doumen. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

3.00 Ascot – Betfair Chase – 2m 5½f

Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 for a profit of £1.54 (ROI +15.4%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter.
Last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks.
Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton.
Trainers: the Pipe stable won the race four times between 2002 and 2006. No successes however, since David Pipe has taken over from his father.
LTO performance: 8 horses came into the race having failed to complete the course LTO, but 3 have gone onto win.
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 3 miles or more LTO have won 5 of the renewals from just 21 runners for a profit of £5.16 (ROI +24.6%).
Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 23.
LTO Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger on their most recent run have provided 0 winners from 24.
Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year

olds have produced 6 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 35.3%); 9 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 10  year olds have produced
1 winner from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%); 11 year olds plus have produced 2 winners
from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%).
Trends analysis: this has been a market driven race in recent years thanks to 5 winning favourites and 9 winners priced 15/2 or shorter. A recent run is not necessarily a plus as 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks. A LTO run at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton has been a positive, while in terms of age 8 year olds have performed way above expectations.