Scottish Grand National

AYR 3.25

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 5 Chase starts.
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-50 record
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 2-80 record
* None have won since 1997
* No horse placed at the Cheltenham festival has won this race
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-81
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days
* 7 of the last 9 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-16 record in this
* The last 11 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

I came down to 4 horses to consider.
Outsiders BALLYFITZ and REGAL HEIGHTS do have reasonable profiles.
I see MINELLA FOUR STAR and
ALWAYS RIGHT as having every chance as well.
It would be easy to go with ALWAYS RIGHT but perhaps as a saver
with MINELLA FOUR STAR the main choice of the pair.

Guy

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This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

Free Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

NOTTINGHAM 1.50

BET ON TotePLACEPOT AT ToteSPORT.COM

HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 5f13y

11/4 Silver Prelude, 9/2 Molly Two, 12/1 Bluebok,

12/1 Ryedane, 12/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 14/1 Gwilym,

16/1 Lake Chini, 16/1 Ronnie Howe, 16/1 The History

Man, 20/1 Comptonspirit, King Of Swords, 25/1

Brandywell Boy, 33/1 Thoughtsofstardom.

SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-70 horses

* Nottingham has 11 renewals of this race

* There has been 162 similar races elsewhere

* Taking the Nottingham race first

* Horses with under 21 career runs were 0-70

* Horses that came from 6f or more were 0-36

* None of the 11 winners were aged 8 or more

* Horses with under 9st scored badly (1-84)

* Horses absent over a month also struggled

Some of these trends have to be broken today and I think the horse that will do it is SILVER PRELUDE. I totally agree with the Racing Post that now he is back at 5f he can dominate the stands rain. SILVER PRELUDE may be better on the sand but he is also effective on turf. He is very well handicapped off 55. He has his lowest turf mark in years and if you look at the class of horse he was facing a few months ago it dwarfs these. His turf form isnt as good but it is still more than good enough to beat this 0-70 field. Dont forget he is just about bottomweight as well for this and all his 3 wins on Turf have been over 5f. I think he could blow these away on his best form. He comes from a Folkestone race where he made all the running for the first 5f. He came into that race with question marks. He had lost in every 6f race he had contested before. He was an 8yo absent over a month so could have been fitter. This front runner needs the drop down in trip and I cant see many of these catching him in this race. There are certainly some negatives about his opponents.

* There has been 162 of these 5f handicaps in May

* Fillies that had under 9 starts had a poor 2-71 record

* None of those had just 1 run that season (0-20)

* None of those were aged 4 or more (0-30)

* MOLLY TWO fails those trends

* Fillies aged 4 with under 13 runs won just 3 of the 162 races

* None had under 3 runs this season though

* MOLLY TWO has that to overcome

* All winning fillies had more backclass than her

* LAKE CHINI is out aged 7 with long absence

* KING OF SWORDS doesnt look ready to win

* THE HISTORY MAN has all his wins after July

* He should need more runs to get to peak fitness

* TYRANNOSAURUS REX is exposed with a 44 day break

* Exposed Male horses that had run this year struggled with absence

* Those like him absent over a month were 1-116

* All 42 aged 5 like TYRANNOSAURUS REX lost

* I think the absence beats TYRANNOSAURUS REX

* THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM is in the same boat

I think there are several that might win this if others

dissapoint. I quite like the mare COMPTONSPIRIT

as a big priced runner but the way this should map

out is that SILVER PRELUDE a fit and in form and

very well handicapped runner should make all and

run these into the ground. I will be surprised if any

horse manages to get to him and overtake him.

SHORTLIST

* COMPTONSPIRIT is value at 25/1

* She was 4th in this race last year

* I like her profile and she fits the “Nottingham” stats

* SILVER PRELUDE looks the one

SELECTION – SILVER PRELUDE

Silver Prelude is 3/1 with Sportingbet and Betfair

Silver Prelude is 11/4 with Bet365BetfredBSq

Silver Prelude is 5/2 with ToteVC

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Betting Advice

Saturday Racing Tip for Wolverhampton

WOLVERHAMPTON  3.30

William Hill LINCOLN TRIAL (HANDICAP)
(CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-105) 1m141y

4/1 Flipando, 11/2 Flowing Cape, 8/1 Capricorn Run,
9/1 Ace Of Hearts, 10/1 Mahadee, 10/1 Whitcombe Minister,
12/1 Bolodenka, 12/1 Extraterrestrial, 14/1 Flawed Genius,
14/1 Nightjar, 16/1 Lucky Dance, 16/1 Samarinda, 33/1 Raptor.

* This is a 0-105 Handicap
* This race has been ran 12 times before
* Most winners were lightly raced aged 4 and 5
* Horses aged 4 and 5 won 11 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won just 2 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses that were aged 6 or more were 0-47
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – CAPRICORN RUN -ACE OF HEARTS
* SAMARINDA – BOLODENKA -FLIPANDO – LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses that didnt run within 2 weeks were 0-53
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – ACE OF HEARTS – EXTRATERRESTRIAL
* SAMARINDA – BOLODENKA -LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-39
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – MAHADEE – SAMARINDA – LUCKY DANCE
* This race usually goes to either a seasonal debutant
* Or a horse with 2 or more runs since January 1st
* Every past winner came from a handicap (Others 0-38)
* SAMARINDA
* None of the winners came from 6f or shorter
* NIGHTJAR – FLOWING CAPE fail that
* There has been 322 Class 2 handicaps at 8f
* Thats 322 races anywhere and any time of year
* In 322 races horse from 6f races won just 2
* They had a 2-106 record and both winners had long breaks
* Those that ran within 10 weeks were 0-80
* Based on these trends I would shortlist the following

MAHADEE
WHITCOMBE MINISTER
FLAWED GENIUS

* MAHADEE fails one trend above
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 were 0-39 in this race
* Ignore that statistic for this horse
* He is only just exposed with 21 career starts
* His Saddle slipped last time and he was heavily eased
* MAHADEE comes from a 7f race at Lingfield
* The 2007 and 2008 winners of this came from that race
* MAHADEE has every chance of making that 3 in a row
* WHITCOMBE MINISTER is interesting
* He’s a similar profile to 2002 winner Dayglow Dancer
* The one worry is he comes from 12f
* That was last year though and he is unexposed
* FLAWED GENIUS is another with a fine chance

SELECTION

Given the seasonal debutants are 4 year olds I have
to go with MAHADEE each way coming from the best trial
race but the best saver may be Whitcombe Minister

Mahadee is currently 9/1 Ladbrokes, Stan James and William Hill

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk