Aintree Horse Betting Advice

A free horse betting tip for Aintree this week from Guy over at the mathematician betting website.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

 

———————————————————–

Looks another classy Saturday and fascinating racing again and I have covered
something from every track this afternoon for the full member message.
The flat is closing down now and much of this is rubbish but there are
still some really intersting races. The National Hunt cards are getting better all the time.
It’s as least as good as the flat today and they
contribute a lot to the 16 Saturday previews but the problem yet again is the
best racing is saved for Saturday and there is simply not enough time to do it all justice.

I am having one full bet for full members today in the 2.30 at Doncaster.
Here on the free blog I am posting up one from slightly further down the full member message.
It almost made full bet status but not quite.

Aintree   1.50

For latest live odss see here

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-10-27/aintree/13-50/betting/

Not ready yet for big field Aintree Handicap Hurdles.
I did notice from 7 past renewals that horses that came from Novice races were 0-16
so I would raise a question mark about favourite CAPE EXPRESS as well as KARTANIAN as well.
I want to oppose these. There are several that have acceptable profiles.
AGENT ARCHIE and NAMPOUR look threatsbut I was drawn to EMPIRE LEVANT first time out.
He had no chance at last years festival over 2m 5f as he doesnt stay.
He wants to race over 18f or less on good ground and on a flat track
and these are his conditions and I think he is a far better bet than the favourite here.

Selection

EMPIRE LEVANT 4/1 ( best odds guaranteed )  at stan james

 

 

York Horse Racing Tip

A free horse racing tip for York from Guy over at the Mathematician Betting website.

 

York  4.55

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-81 rated horses
* FORK HANDLES – Very weak profile coming from 10f
* I’d also argue she might not stay this far
* MASHAARI – Looks the wrong kind of 3yo
* No 3yo won with under 7 runs and he has 4
* No 3yo won absent 7 weeks or more and he’s off 80 days
* Coming from a 12f maiden I wasnt keen
* BECAUSEWECAN – No exposed horse came from 13f or less
* He hasnt been running well enough to ignore that
* GENEROUS DREAM is a 4yo filly with just 7 runs
* Without more backclass I wasnt sold on her chances
* All similar 4yo fillies had at least 13 runs
* TINY TEMPER is woefully underraced from a filly
* Especially coming from 13f and she looks all wrong
* VALID REASON looks underraced this season
* HAWRIDGE STAR has fitness issues
* Not keen he is 10 with 36 days off
* HAWRIDGE STAR only has 1 run since July
* FRENCH HOLLOW – Finished 3rd in this race last year
* I tipped him each way but knew there was a stamina doubt
* His sire still hasnt had a winner over this far
* The stamina doubt remains especially in this ground
* This year his profile is not as good
* I couldnt rule him out though
* CAPE TRIBULATION is 8 absent 125 days
* Thats a massive absence for an 8yo
* Looked at all handicaps for similar types
* Leslingtaylor did it (2010) over 10f
* European Dream (2011) did it over 9f
* None aged 8 or more have over this far yet
* RIVER DRAGON won easily over hurdles last time
* I made him my best bet that day
* I dont have a problem with his profile

Selection

Each Way RIVER DRAGON 5/1 Victor Chandler

 

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Betting Advice

 

 

 

Big Priced Each Way Bets

A couple of big priced each way bets suggested today by Guy from the Mathematician Website.

to visit his site click here ==> Free Horse Racing Tips

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Only Musselburgh on the Flat today and that track wouldn’t
make my list of favourite tracks. Kempton is on the sand a
tough competetive card but we are short of flat cards today.
I have dipped into a National Hunt race but the advice below
I would not steam into with big cash.

Next week will be a huge week. There is a Bank Holiday.
Some very big trend races. There is a Grand National.
I will be stronger at Aintree this year than ever before
witha  huge ammount of pre research already done.

T o d a y ‘s  O p t i o n s

I could have had some shorter priced bets but I didnt want
that. Equally some of my bigger priced options overreach
a little and I am resigned to having a very quiet Saturday
knowing full well we will fire up dramatically next week.
Being a Saturday I will highlight one bet. I’ve a negative
in the 4.05pm and the two obvious alternatives are short
of what I want. There are two very big prices in the race.

Haydock 4.05

VINTAGE STAR 16/1 Each Way

DIZZY RIVER  16/1 Each Way

You can get 18/1 and 20/1 in the offices and both will
be bigger on Betfair. I you bet both each way we have
only got to get one placed to break level and I feel we
could do better than that. Novice Handicaps are quite
complicated but my angles offer encouragement and I
think on a dangerous Saturday we should keep it tight
and wait for Grand National week where tracks suit me.

S t r o n g e s t   S t a t i s t i c   T o d a y

H a y d o c k   4.05

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* In Thursdays message I gave a good Stat in a similar race
* I want to give another interesting statistic here
* It involves FOURTH ESTATE who fails my angles

* Novice Handicap Hurdles in March and April
* Between 2m 3f – 2m 4f – 2m 5f
* Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles over 2m 2f or less
* I found the odd winner with many years ago
* None were like FOURTH ESTATE though
* Those that won last time out were 0-38
* That strikes me as quite a telling statictic
* The record of these horses since 1998 was poor
* None of them had just 1-2 runs that year like him
* FOURTH ESTATE has a weak profile in my view

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* In Thursdays message I gave a good Stat in a similar race
* I want to give another interesting statistic here
* It involves FOURTH ESTATE who fails some angles

* Novice Handicap Hurdles in March and April
* Between 2m 3f – 2m 4f – 2m 5f
* Horses coming from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
* Horses coming up in trip from 2m 2f or less
* I found the odd winner with many years ago
* None were like FOURTH ESTATE though
* Those that won last time out were 0-38
* That strikes me as quite a telling statictic
* The record of these horses since 1998 was poor
* None of them had just 1-2 runs that year like him
* FOURTH ESTATE has a weak profile in my view

I think the race is set up for an each way alternative.
I do not want CHADFORD from a 4yo race. KINGS LODGE
and EYRE APPARENT didnt run well enough last time.

* SYDNEY PAGET – 5yo from a novice hurdle
* He has an absence of over 7 weeks
* I found a 2-54 record from these types
* None like SYDNEY PAGET won last time out
* None carried more than 10st 9lbs and he has 11st 10lbs
* SYDNEY PAGET feels unsafe to me
* PINEROLO – Overall positive but not brilliant
* VINTAGE STAR – Hard to read but overall positive
* DIZZY RIVER – Shortlistable and not a bad price
* PERSIAN SNOW – I’d prefer more runs this season
* I found a 7yo winner like him but not 6yo
* GRANDADS HORSE – Comes out as a potential e/w bet
* GRANDADS HORSE – Weight could be his biggest flaw
* All the similar winners had marginally lighter weights

Selection

Split Stake Bet

* VINTAGE STAR 20/1 Each Way S James
* DIZZY RIVER  20/1 Each Way  S James

* Only 1 needs to place to return stakes
* Every £10 bet means £2.50 each way on both horses

.

Strong Horse Racing Stat

The below is a newish section fromThe Mathematician’s very comprehensive daily racing message.

He calls it the Strongest Statisic Today

In short it points to something interesting found

through his research.

Some days it may point to a horse to think about backing.

Other days it may be a strong stat that could lead you to opposing a short priced favourite.

=====================

S t r o n g e s t   S t a t i s t i c  T o d a y

Uttoxeter 2.10

VICTORIA ROSE 10/1

Another Positive Statistic today. I dont expect her
to win rated lower than most of her rivals but she is
a double figure price and comes out curiously well so
I wouldnt put anyone off having a small interest bet.

* All Mares Novice Chases run in January
* Horses from Handicap Hurdles
* Between 7 and 20 career starts
* Running over 19f or more last time
* Between 1 and 4 runs that season
* There were 8 horses with that profile
* They finished W 2 W W W W W W
* VICTORIA ROSE  shares that profile

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

PS price has come in a  bit since Mathematician Members got this earlier today. Now best priced 9/1 at VC

.

Scottish Grand National

AYR 3.25

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 5 Chase starts.
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-50 record
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 2-80 record
* None have won since 1997
* No horse placed at the Cheltenham festival has won this race
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-81
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days
* 7 of the last 9 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-16 record in this
* The last 11 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

I came down to 4 horses to consider.
Outsiders BALLYFITZ and REGAL HEIGHTS do have reasonable profiles.
I see MINELLA FOUR STAR and
ALWAYS RIGHT as having every chance as well.
It would be easy to go with ALWAYS RIGHT but perhaps as a saver
with MINELLA FOUR STAR the main choice of the pair.

Guy

============

This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

Today’s Best Bet

Today’s Best Bet

KEMPTON 1.20

VIA GALILEI 7/1

My best profile horse (Wayward Prince) doesnt run
so what may have been a two bet day is reduced to a
single bet. I am relaxed about that. I probably havent
got to grips with enough races today partly down to
the weather and the cards and there is not much I like.

I do like VIA GALILEI’s chance a lot though and he’s
well worth a decent bet at 7/1 or better. I have some
negatives amongst the fancied dangers. I can not see
many horses beating him all things equal. His rating
on the Flat which has been as high as 107 demands he
must have a very lenient handicap mark over hurdles
off 116 especially when he has already won twice. He
could easily bump into something that beats him but
I can not see many dangers. He’s a good price. These
races are frightening but full of horses that can’t win
so they are never as competetive as they look. He is
interesting as he has a crucial blend of having enough
experience to win but being lightly raced enough to be
progressive and capable of improving. I cant see a bet
that I like better today. There may be something for
the cherry pickers below but I think this is one tough
Saturday. A Day to watch some high class racing and
just the one bet at a decent price to try and win well.

8/1 with VC and Betfred
15/2 with Hills PaddyPower Bet365 Tote
7/1 Generally elsewhere

KEMPTON 1.20

William Hill Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 2m

9/2 Skint, 5/1 Samsons Son, 6/1 Ski Sunday, 7/1 Via Galilei
10/1 Aather, 10/1 Babilu, 14/1 Simply Blue, 14/1 Souter Point
14/1 William Hogarth, 14/1 Zanir, 20/1 Big Robert
20/1 Johnny Mullen, 25/1 Alhaque, 25/1 Karky Schultz 50/1 Tobago Bay, 50/1 Top Mark.

This is a competetive 2m Handicap Hurdle. This race has lots of varied profiles.
I wasn’t convinced about SKINT. He comes from a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle.
There are winners that have done that but none had just 3 runs like him and
none were as young  as he is aged 5 and none had his weight. I think you have
to be careful with the horses coming from Novice Hurdles when they have a
long absence. I found only 3 winners like this in 190 of these 2m Handicaps
and None had under 7 career starts.
Those with fewer than 7 starts were 0-35. All 3 winners that won first time out from
a Novice Hurdle dropped from 2m 4f or longer and those that raced at 16f or 17f last
time were 0-37 and that puts me off some of the lighter raced Novice Hurdlers in this race.
That means SAMSONS SON and SOUTER POINT both look vulnerable and don’t have strong profiles.
TOP MARK is hard to fancy not doing enough last time.
TOBAGO BAY and ALHAQUE look outclassed.
WILLIAM HOGARTH is unsafe coming from a Novice Handicap Chase.
If you take horse with long absences that had raced13 or more times before you
find  a 1-79 record . ZANIR has that to overcome and a high weight  on his seasonal
debut and I thing thats asking too much. I dont see a strong case for KARKY SCHULTZ.
There has been some strong money for SKI SUNDAY but he doesn’t look right.
The record of seasonal debutants like him carrying 11st 3lbs or more is poor and
none were 6 year olds like him and I couldnt match him to a winner.
BIG ROBERT will probably find this too much with 3 career hurdle runs.
There are only 3 I can shortlist.

SHORTLIST

I would make BABILU a positive. She may be a mare but she
won last time and is well raced this year and with a light weight  it counts for plenty.
AATHER Looks well worth a place on the shortlist.
I respect VIA GALILEI who won a handicap first time  out this year.
I thought this trio looked best but given the choice it has to be VIA GALILEI.
What swings it for me is his rating.
This is a horse that was consistently rated over 100 on the flat having come from
Jim Bolger to Gary Moore.
He was a top class handicapper on the Flat. That makes a Hurdle rating of 116
just too lenient. It much have more ability than that. Ideally lightly raced.
Winning a good trial race last time. The horse has been handicapped after 3 runs.
Then he won a Maiden hurdle and a handicap on his last two starts and gets in
here off a very decent mark. He’s too good a horse not to fancy off 116 and
with some of main dangers statistically weak he looks well worth a bet.
It doesnt surprise me he has a Tote Gold Trophy entry.
He won’t get in that race without a couple of wins but one of them might well
come today and he would be my best bet at the meeting.

SELECTION

VIA GALILEI 7/1 Win Bet

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

Trainer Stats For Newbury

COURSE TRAINER STATS FOR NEWBURY

These stats were provided by Dave Renham of www.RacingTrends.co.uk

RacingTrends members receive a wealth of well
researched horse racing information on a daily basis.

These Trainer For Course Stats are just the tip of the iceberg really.

RacingTrends is a useful service for those who do not like to follow simple tips like sheep but instead prefer to make their own betting decissions.

RacingTrends and all the well researched info provided daily cuts out a lot of the necessary grunt research work to such an approach.

ALL RACE TYPES 2005 – Thursday
25th Nov 2010

(ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
P F Nicholls
62
231
26.8
+£12.23
+5.3
Nick Williams
7
27
25.9
+£29.21
+108.2
N J Henderson
59
287
20.6
-£14.38
-5.0
D McCain Jnr
4
20
20.0
+£17.83
+89.1
O Sherwood
9
49
18.4
+£32.71
+66.7
C R Egerton
8
46
17.4
+£26.11
+56.8
P J Hobbs
39
234
16.7
-£15.93
-6.8
Miss R Curtis
1
7
14.3
-£4.00
-57.1
J Howard Johnson
3
25
12.0
-£17.64
-70.5
M Bradstock
2
17
11.8
-£8.25
-48.5
T R George
8
68
11.8
+£2.33
+3.4
C L Tizzard
5
43
11.6
-£8.25
-19.2
D Pipe
13
113
11.5
-£12.73
-11.3
A King
18
194
9.3
-£53.35
-27.5
Jonjo O’Neill
12
131
9.2
-£61.00
-46.6
N J Gifford
4
44
9.1
-£11.00
-25.0
W J Greatrex
1
11
9.1
+£2.00
+18.2
Noel T Chance
4
53
7.6
+£2.75
+5.2
Miss Venetia Williams
8
107
7.5
-£51.35
-48.0
G L Moore
9
130
6.9
+£15.00
+11.5
A W Carroll
2
30
6.7
-£1.50
-5.0
K C Bailey
2
31
6.5
-£13.00
-41.9
N A Twiston-Davies
9
155
5.8
-£77.03
-49.7
P R Webber
4
80
5.0
-£59.50
-74.4
Miss E C Lavelle
4
93
4.3
-£55.50
-59.7
R Rowe
2
50
4.0
-£19.00
-38.0
Miss H C Knight
3
77
3.9
-£59.75
-77.6
R H Buckler
2
53
3.8
-£36.00
-67.9
Ian Williams
1
48
2.1
-£38.00
-79.2

Newbury Trainer Stats ALL
HURDLES 2005 – Thursday 25th Nov 2010

(ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
Nick Williams
3
13
23.1
-£1.96
-15.1
P F Nicholls
21
96
21.9
-£14.20
-14.8
P J Hobbs
28
129
21.7
+£14.29
+11.1
N J Henderson
35
172
20.4
-£0.77
-0.4
Miss R Curtis
1
5
20.0
-£2.00
-40.0
J Howard Johnson
3
18
16.7
-£10.64
-59.1
O Sherwood
4
27
14.8
+£14.33
+53.1
T R George
4
29
13.8
-£1.67
-5.8
A King
12
114
10.5
-£44.68
-39.2
A W Carroll
2
22
9.1
+£6.50
+29.5
Noel T Chance
3
34
8.8
+£4.75
+14.0
D Pipe
5
57
8.8
-£37.48
-65.8
C L Tizzard
1
12
8.3
-£8.25
-68.8
D McCain Jnr
1
13
7.7
-£8.67
-66.7
N J Gifford
1
13
7.7
£0.00
+0.0
G L Moore
7
99
7.1
+£27.00
+27.3
Jonjo O’Neill
5
72
6.9
-£45.75
-63.5
Miss Venetia Williams
3
48
6.3
-£29.00
-60.4
Miss H C Knight
2
39
5.1
-£28.25
-72.4
P R Webber
2
39
5.1
-£29.00
-74.4
N A Twiston-Davies
3
68
4.4
-£16.90
-24.9
C R Egerton
1
24
4.2
+£10.00
+41.7
Miss E C Lavelle
2
49
4.1
-£32.00
-65.3
Ian Williams
1
35
2.9
-£25.00
-71.4

Newbury Trainer Stats ALL
CHASES 2005 – Thursday 25th Nov 2010

(ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
W J Greatrex
1
2
50.0
+£11.00
+550.0
C R Egerton
7
18
38.9
+£20.11
+111.7
P F Nicholls
38
117
32.5
+£31.93
+27.3
K C Bailey
2
7
28.6
+£11.00
+157.1
M Bradstock
2
7
28.6
+£1.75
+25.0
O Sherwood
4
16
25.0
+£14.38
+89.8
D McCain Jnr
1
5
20.0
+£5.00
+100.0
Nick Williams
2
11
18.2
-£4.83
-43.9
N J Henderson
13
75
17.3
-£24.98
-33.3
C L Tizzard
4
25
16.0
+£6.00
+24.0
N J Gifford
3
19
15.8
+£1.00
+5.3
D Pipe
8
55
14.6
+£25.75
+46.8
T R George
4
36
11.1
+£7.00
+19.4
P J Hobbs
10
92
10.9
-£34.23
-37.2
A King
5
49
10.2
-£3.67
-7.5
R Rowe
2
20
10.0
+£11.00
+55.0
Noel T Chance
1
10
10.0
+£7.00
+70.0
Miss Venetia Williams
5
57
8.8
-£20.35
-35.7
N A Twiston-Davies
6
75
8.0
-£48.13
-64.2
Miss E C Lavelle
2
28
7.1
-£7.50
-26.8
Jonjo O’Neill
3
47
6.4
-£21.13
-44.9
P R Webber
1
20
5.0
-£15.00
-75.0
Miss H C Knight
1
21
4.8
-£14.50
-69.0
G L Moore
1
23
4.4
-£14.00
-60.9
R H Buckler
1
26
3.9
-£17.00
-65.4

Racing Tip For Carlisle

Free tip form Guy over at mathematician betting is below

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Betting Tips

================================

Today is probably the quietest Saturday we will get
for a few months. No Flat cards at all. Kempton is an
awful card on the sand. That just leaves an all chase
card at Carlisle and Haydock where neither card has
a maiden or Novice Hurdle. It’s a very drab saturday.

Our season proper will start on Bank Holiday Monday.
Next week will be a significant week. The Flat starts to
take off and get busy and the Grand National meeting
at Aintree dominates so I can start to give more bets
and have much more choice and variety something I
just have not had this week or today which is awful.

Done what I can looking at a few races today but we
have not been offered anything interesting and Not
close to having a Bet today. There are a few horses
with good solid profiles today but not exceptionally
good ones. Reluctant to go with any horse today at
the top of the message. I’m not going to let the worst
Saturday Cards in months seduce me into a serious bet but
now the Flat is back we will get a lot busier from now on.

If stuck for inspiration today however consider the following

CARLISLE 4.00

More Live Football Betting At Totesport.com
Novices´ Chase (CLASS 3) (5yo+)  2m4f

13/8 Mr Woods, 3/1 Finney, 7/2 Youngstown
7/1 Ginolad, 15/2 Heez A Steel.

This is a 2m 4f Novice Chase. There has been 453 similar
races at this time of year. I dont have a big problem with
FINNEY’s absence or the fact he is so lightly raced this
season but any horses that won with his profile had not
come from a Handicap. I couldnt find one from a Novice
Handicap and I wasn’t that impressed with his profile.

* YOUNGSTOWN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not coming down 12f in 17 days
* HEEZ A STEEL has a poor profile
* Exposed horses from hurdles struggled
* None dropped in trip and I thought he was unsafe
* GINOLAD has a difficult profile to read
* He is 10 and most of his career was in Australia
* He won the 2008 Australian Grand National
* Good start to his English career but he has regressed
* I couldnt rule him out but I couldnt find a similar winner
* I thought MR WOODS had the strongest profile

MR WOODS

* Males winning 2m 4f Novice Chase last time
* 13 or more career starts
* 5-6 runs this season
* Running within a month
* There were 20 horses with that profile and 10 won
* The 10 losers finished 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 F
* MR WOODS has a strong profile

5/2 at many including  PaddyPower s james BoyleSports Bet365

Lingfield Horse Racing Tip

Tip for Lingfield from Guy Ward

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> horse racing tips

==============

Lingfield 2.10 – ALFIE TUPPER 7/2 CoralBetfredBet365

ALFIE TUPPER is still well handicapped and is in a
good spell of form having ran himself fit now and I
think he can win the 2.10pm. He has had excuses for
two very close defeats. He doesnt have many to beat
in this race and whilst everything at this track can be
vulnerable to fast finishers and how the race is run I
cant see this horse not going very close today and
win lose or draw I will be surprised if he is beaten by
more than a length and with luck in running can win.

LINGFIELD 2.10

Bet African Nations Cup – Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f

3/1 Alfie Tupper, 5/1 Atacama Sunrise, 6/1 Bavarica
7/1 Rapid City, 8/1 Jeer , 10/1 Charlie Smirke Bosamcliff
16/1 Society Venue, 25/1 Alqaahir 25/1 Maybe I Will
25/1 Whodunit.

This is a 10f Handicap and we have 350 of these races
at this time of year. Picking out a few poor profiles I’d
oppose MAYBE I WILL as a mare absent 230 days. I
oppose WHODUNIT from 7f with 1 run since March.
BAVARICA doesnt appeal as no exposed mare aged
7 or more defied a months absence in the 350 races. I
think RAPID CITY is a poor bet with 1 run since June.
SOCIETY VENUE looks underraced to me and I dont
want him from a career high mark. ALQAAHIR would
not be my first choice aged 8 absent 40 days. There
were a few winners like that but almost all had far less
weight and almost all had more backclass as well. It’s
hard to rate BOSAMCLIFF as she has been hurdling
but I dont really want a mare from hurdles and she is
respected but avoided. I looked at 4 year old fillies in
350 races like ATACAMA SUNRISE. I found 8 fillies
like her that  came from 10f handicaps but those who
ran within the past fortnight had a 0-50 record and it
was only those from a longer break that won. That’s
possibly a statistical blip but its a 0-50 record and I
dont see ATACAMA SUNRISE as safe because of
it. I looked at 4 year olds like CHARLIE SMIRKE who
came from Maidens with 9 or more career starts and
found a 2-66 record. To be fair to him both winners
were male like him and came from 8f maidens which
when applied turned into a 2-13 record so he’s fine.

CHARLIE SMIRKE – I have found 2 similar winners

JEER – I give him a chance as he is well handicapped

ALFIE TUPPER – Strong Profile

SELECTION

ALFIE TUPPER  Win Bet

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> horse racing tips

Bookmaker Cash Back Offer

Bookmaker Cash Back Offer

There is some major news this week on the bookmaker front I wanted to
make sure you were all aware of.

Coral have introduced quite an enticing cash back offer.

Each month you make a net loss with them on all sportsbook and gaming action
( excludes poker and any other peer to peer bets )
They will give you 10% of your net losses back.

See here for full details. ==> Coral

NB this is not just an offer for new account holders.
You can get this cash back if you already have a Coral account.

IMPORTANT

If you already have an account with them you need to opt in for this offer.
Do that now if you have not done so already by clicking here ==> Coral

Also if you open a new account with them, again opt into the 10% refund offer after you set up your account.

Also Note …

Bookmaker Canbet also offer a rebate on monthly losses

Pros of the Canbet offer .. they give 25% back which is obviously better than Corals 10%

Cons of Canbet

the rebate is restricted to losses only on UK and Irish horse racing ( whilst Coral is any sports and gaming too )

You have to manually claim it at the end of each month by logging in and entering a code into your account.
Once you opt into the Coral scheme rebate cash if due will automatically be placed into your account
which is obviously a much more punter friendly approach that cuts out the possibility of you forgetting to claim a refund due to you.

The canbet rebate is limited to 8% of total stakes

You also need 25 settled bets each month on Canbet totalling at least £100

So as you can see Canbet do of course offer a significantly higher percentage if your focus is horse racing.
It would be nice however to see them cut out some of the hoops and hurdles and automate the crediting of your account each month if you are due cash.

Overall I think I have to applaud Coral for this losses rebate introduction.
It will put pressure on some of the other bookmakers to start thinking about how they too can offer something more attractive to us punters.

Best wishes
Sports Betting Blog