Horse Racing Tips Archives

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

The Cheltenham Festival is looming and I have for you today

a bit of an advance early look at the Cheltenham Gold Cup from

Guy the horse racing analyst over at www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk.

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FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Today I wanted to make some progress

On the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Which is now just 16 days away



Cheltenham Gold Cup

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


If you go back to 1999

19 renewals
17 of the 19 winners
Shared the following profile

1) Under 10 years old
2) Under 15 Chase runs
3) Absent more than 4 weeks
4) Coming from a Graded race
5) Starting under 10/1 last time
6) Under 21 lifetime runs
7) Starting 20/1 or shorter


19 renewals since 1999
75 horses had this profile
17 of these won the race

Horses with this profile

Presenting Percy
Shattered Love
Elegant Escape
Kemboy

Just looking at that shortlist
KEMBOY would be my preference

I would not use this profile religiously
It would only take minor adjustments
And I could add other horses to the list
Take the example of Al Boum Photo
Just ran in Listed class not Graded class
I could easily forgive a few horses angles
Road To Respect could have got there


Anyway

Wanted to have a look at the main runners
Listed some of their positives + negatives
And see where we ended up at the end

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


Number of Chase runs

22 Frodon
21 Bristol De Mai
18 Definitly Red
15 Native River
15 Road To Respect
14 Anibale Fly
13 Might Bite
13 Clan Des Obeaux
11 Elegant Escape
11 Shattered Love
9 Bellshill
8 Thistlecrack
8 Kemboy
7 Al Boum Photo
5 Presenting Percy


This is an illustration
Of how exposed the main runners are

The Previous 23 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 23 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs



FRODON

22 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

BRISTOL DE MAI

21 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

DEFINITLY RED
18 Chase runs
Not in line with almost all winners

NATIVE RIVER

15 Chase starts is forgiveable
But he has had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
He did win the race last season
Only 4 of the last 50 winners
Followed up and won this again
Will one or two improve past him
Can he repeat previous heroics
When the ground may not be soft

THISTLECRACK

11 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
He has also had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
Has not won a race since 2016

MIGHT BITE

10 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
Flopped on his two runs this season

PRESENTING PERCY

5 Chase runs
You can win this with 5
Interrupted Season
Just 1 run this year (hurdles)

CLAN DES OBEAUX

Has a 27 day absence
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
Has a stamina problem as well
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Listed and Graded races
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-15 record so far

ANIBALE FLY

Not a certain runner
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
The last 17 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn't
He has had 22 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

SHATTERED LOVE

She is a mare
Official Ratings have her way behind
Big price if you wanted to risk her

ELEGANT ESCAPE

Defied his pedigree before
Can't be ruled out with 11 chase runs
But flat bred and just can't have the pedigree


Leaning more towards these horses


AL BOUM PHOTO

He is a 7yo
Has raced just once this season
Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Worried about a 7yo with 1 run
That is my only problem with him
Two recent winners had 1 run that year
Thats a positive but none were 7yo's
He is also coming from a sire
Without a winner over this far

KEMBOY

He is a 7yo
Maybe fast improving
But Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Kemboy has raced only twice
Sire has no wins yet over 3m 2f +

INVITATION ONLY

Backed him at 50/1 some time ago
Seen as not a certain runner

ROAD TO RESPECT

15 Chase runs is acceptable
Finished a decent 4th in 2018 race
Connections say he wants it soft
His numbers don't really prove this
Stamina may be an issue sired by Gamut
His sires runners in Class 4 or higher
None have yet won beyond 3m 1f (0-13)
I would not rule him out on the above

BELLSHILL

9 Chase runs is good
21 lifetime runs is the maximum
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts


Provisional Shortlist

INVITATION ONLY 50/1 (WP Mullins)
AL BOUM PHOTO 20/1 (WP Mullins)
KEMBOY 10/1 (WP Mullins)
BELLSHILL 14/1 (WP Mullins)
ROAD TO RESPECT 25/1


Obviously things can change
May have a completely different view later
But these 5 horses interested me most

4 of the 5 shortlisted
Are trained by Willie Mullins

Can't find any prices yet
Just for Mullins to win this race
But that could be an option later on

This list could be whittled down
Invitation Only may run elsewhere

Obviously the biggest headache
Not knowing the stable pecking order
But looking at this experimental shortlist
Looking at the prices and frame of race

If the race was being run today
I would probably stake it this way

£2.50 Each Way KEMBOY 10/1
£2.50 Each Way BELLSHILL 14/1

The race is not being run today
There is still much we do not know
Such as ground and running plans
Still clinging on for the vain hope
That we may be offered 4 places
I don't think we will get that though

But this is where I am with the race

No final selection
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Out of interest it has been tradition over the past few years
that Guy gives his final judgement advice on the Cheltenham Gold Cup
out to any registered on his free newsletter. Typically this will be on the
day of the race itself after actual runners and going conditions are confirmed.

If interested in receiving his final assessment register for free at this link

==> Free Horse Racing Tips

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

I have for you today a reasoned longer odds shot for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

It is a copy of an official bet from Guy Ward’s excellent Mathematician Service.

How many racing services do you know off that are good enough to

have had clients stay with them for more than ten years continuous membership
duration?

You could probably count such services on one hand.

Perhaps even on the hand of a crocodile feeder that is missing a few fingers.

 

The below Guy sent to his members on Sunday so odds on

offer right now may differ slightly to what he spoke about then.

 

NB This is Part 1 of his Gold Cup Betting.

50% of his usual stake he invested on Sunday March 11th

The rest he will decide upon closer to the race itself.

His Part 2 day of race thoughts will probably include a lot of extra stat analysis
of the race.

This Part 2 analysis you can actually get for FREE from him if you so wish.

See here Free Gold Cup Tip

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

1 Account bet

This is Ante Post

In the Cheltenham Gold Cup

 

Partially staked to 50% stake

 

Account Bet

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Friday – Cheltenham 3.30pm

EDWULF 20/1 +

£3 Win

£2 Place

 

Half Stakes Today

The remaining £5 Stake

Will be given nearer the race

 

25/1 Hills

22/1 Sportingbet Betfair

20/1 Ladbrokes Skybet Unibet Corals

20/1 Boyles Betbright

Cheltenham Gold Cup

 

EDWULF is 25/1 with Hills

He is 20/1 with most firms

He is around 22/1 on Betfair

 

Last night I backed him to win

 

The last review I did on this race

I had him on a list of 5 horses

Of potential shock winners

Minella Rocco 33/1

Edwulf 25/1

Road to Respect 10/1

Definitely Red 20/1

Double Shuffle 40/1

 

 

EDWULF has made the staking

I want to bet him now at the price

This horse is lucky to be alive

I spotted him earlier than most

Blew me away at Navan in February 2017

He was my Cheltenham Banker in 2017

Had every chance in the 4 miler

Before he collapsed in spasms

Looking like he might even die

He lost his eyesight which has returned

No reason why he can’t win this

Just done a career best Racing Post Rating

He seems to have been unfairly overlooked

As a horse lucky to be still alive and racing

Perhaps people might see him as weak and soft

Having had such a horrible experience

That could well be a big mistake

It could be a collectively false assumption

 

He’s just won the Irish Gold Cup

Having hardly had a race all season

Maybe he is the horse I always felt he was

His last win was really impressive

He has a lovely Gold Cup profile as well

EDWULF will be part of my staking plan

I think we should bet him now at 20/1

 

 

 

 

 

Arc De Triomphe

Mathematician Betting are running a 2 for 1 deal this weekend.

Buy the Saturday Horse Racing Analysis and you get Arc De Triomphe Sunday

as a free special bonus.

There is more info here

Arc De Triomphe

There are some interesting Arc De Triomphe Stats on that page which may be of use to those of you who like to pick your own horses. They are from 2014 but many will still have a degree of validity this year for knocking out and shortlisting.

 

 

The Cambridgeshire – Free Stats Research

The Cambridgeshire runs at Newmarket on Saturday.

My old mate Guy described it as a race that was

“difficult but not impossible”

He ducked the race in 2015 but in 2014 he

used his stats research to pick out two contendors.

He got the 20/1 early price winner and his other was 3rd at 12/ early price.

So “difficult but not impossible” seems apt enough when coming from him.

Anyhow he has posted up for free some of his early statastics research  work for this years race.

See here Cambridgeshire Statistics

Wwll worth a nosey if you have an interest in the race.

 

 

 

 

Grand National Betting 2016

If you are the sort who likes to put a blindfold on

and throw darts at a copy of the Racing Post to

find a few horses to fill a yankee with then I guess

what I am about to point you too will be of little interest.

 

If on the other hand you respect research and thought

then you may find it of some amusement and assistance

in helping to unravel the winner of the Grand National

Take a look here if so.

Grand National Betting 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grand National Outsider Options

Grand National Outsider Options

The Aintree meeting that takes place from Thursday 7th – Saturday 9th April is one of the highlights of the racing calendar and this year promises to be no exception. After an incredible Cheltenham Festival, the National Hunt focus moves to Liverpool, with the main event being the world famous Grand National steeplechase. Raced over four miles and three and a half furlongs, the 30 fences provide the stiffest test in the jumps calendar. The race takes roughly nine minutes to complete and stops the nation for its duration.

Read the rest of this entry

Hennessy Gold Cup Tips

Saturday sees the 2015 running of the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury

If seeking some inspiration to solve this race then take a quick
peek at some detailed data at the link below from Mathematician Betting

They are also running a free to enter tipping comp on this Hennessy race
where you can win you valuable full membership time on their horse
racing advisory service.

See here ==> Hennessy Gold Cup 2015

 

 

 

 

Paddy Power Gold Cup At Cheltenham

Paddy Power Cheltenham Gold Cup

This below was extracted from the free newsletter over at Guy Ward’s Mathematician Betting site.

It contains some useful insight into today’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

If you want to join that free newsletter youself you can do so here

==> Free Horse Racing Tips

=======================================================

#1 New Ante Post Section..what’s that all about then?

Well not long range ante post tips but I guess a self thinker

reader may self choose to make a self decided ante post bet

any time they want.

From Guy’s point of view it is more so about research

preparation work on upcoming major races.

Most of his focus on any given day will be on that day’s

normal racing. But if he can snatch a bit of free time

he will put it to good use with advance research for a major race.

The November Handicap stats I sent you last week were

extracted from this new Ante Post section.

This week I have for you his thoughts into Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup.

You can see from the dates below that full members have been getting it in

dribs and drabs from Tuesday Nov 3rd over time as Guy completes various

angles of research.

Note below how his positive and negative list

builds up over time. It’s probably worth saying that Guy himself

would not always totally blinker himself to only his positives.

A mild negative stat can be overlooked if market odds

are excessive and offer good value.

Saturday’s message will contain his final day of race opinion

once final runners, going day of race market odds etc are

more firmed up.

 


Tuesday 3rd

A n t e P o s t

New Column

Won’t be filling it up with long range bets

I want to start the countdown to the Paddy Power

Building a list of positives and negatives

Cheltenham Saturday 14th November

Paddy Power Gold Cup

8/1 Kings Palace 10/1 Monetaire, Boondooma

12/1 Cocktails At Dawn, Present View, 12/1 Irish Cavalier

12/1 Johns Spirit, 16/1 Oscar Rock, Thomas Crapper,

20/1 Buywise, Clarcam 20/1 Ptit Zig, Sound Investment

20/1 Splash of Ginge, 20/1 Taquin Du Seuil, 20/1 Annacotty

25/1 Art Mauresque – 33/1 Bar

KING’S PALACE – David Pipe

Current Race favourite

Breeding Stats Positive

He is a 7yo seasonal debutant

He has 4 Chase starts

Recent winners had the following chase runs

5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7

I’d have been happier with another Chase run

Gets extra points for Cheltenham Form

5 winners aged 7 were seasonal debutants

They were Males with 3 5 6 8 12 previous chase runs

The horse with 3 Chase runs won the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Again that extra chase run would have helped

Another issue to consider is the big field

How robust is he and how will he cope

Verdict – Positive Profile

MONETAIRE – David Pipe

Seasonal debutant aged 9 with 12 Chase starts

Cyfor Malta 2002 had the same profile

He was a past winner of this race though

He had achieved a lot more than Monetaire

His career best Racing Post Rating over fences is 146

If you look at the last 15 winners and their career best

Monetaire comes out as Joint 11th best of the 15

Not keen he is sired by a Flat sire

Not keen he started life on the flat

He scrapes through my breeding stats

But only 1 horse (The Last Derby) gets him there

I find his breeding profile unsatisfactory

Verdict – Unsatisfactory


Wed 4th

BOONDOOMA 10/1

Dr Richard Newland

BOONDOOMA has been out and won at Cheltenham

He has 4 Chase runs

Recent winners had 5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7 runs

Would have been safer if he had managed 5 chase runs

19 of the last 21 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form

BOONDOOMA only has Grade 3 form

That is another concern about his profile

There were 3 recent 8yo winners

They won from marks of 150 137 146

BOONDOOMA has to defy a higher mark of 154

That’s a worry when you consider no Grade 1-2 form

The 3 winners aged 8 had 8 10 7 previous Chase runs

BOONDOOMA only has 4

Look at the 7 winners that ran this season

They all ran within the past 17 days

Horses running this season absent 18+ days are 0-59

BOONDOOMA fails that albeit only just

Gets Positives for a Cheltenham win

Gets Positives for a Career best run last time

But he has to step up from a 2m 5f race

For me there are too many holes in his profile

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Current Negatives

Monetaire

Boondooma


Sunday 8th

Paddy Power Gold Cup

ANNACOTTY was gambled yesterday

Several firms cut him from 20/1 to 16/1-14/1

One very significant positive for me

Is he has upgraded stables this season

Martin Keighley to Alan King is a good upgrade

Most recent winners were lighter raced over fences

Go back a decade or so and some were like him

He does not fit the ideal range of 5-12 Chase starts

That said the 5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7

Had 3 5 6 8 12 previous chase runs

ANNACOTTY with 13 Chase runs is worth considering

He is a Grade 1 winner

He is a Grade 3 winner at Cheltenham

His Numbers certainly show enough class

Alan King has nominated the race as a target

I certainly wouldn’t rule him out

His last 2 seasonal debuts were defeats when favourite

That wouldn’t put me off to be honest

Has to be in the Positives

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire

Boondooma


Tuesday 10th

Looking at the 6 year olds now

IRISH CAVALIER

PTIT ZIG

LA VATICANE

There are only 3 potential runners this year aged 6

I don’t think a 6yo will win it this year

Only 5 winners aged 6 since 1994

Horses aged 6 have a 4-46 record since 1997

The 4 recent winners aged 6

Won from handicap marks of 139 139 136 138

PTIT ZIG has to defy a mark of 159

IRISH CAVALIER has to defy a mark of 156

There handicap marks are far higher than any 6yo winner

If you look at 6 year olds rated 140 or more

All 27 that raced were beaten

There was a 148 rated winner aged 6 in 1996

He had considerably less weight though

LA VATICANE has a lower rating

She is a seasonal debutant mare though

She is surely too inexperienced with just 2 starts

Only 1 recent winner had under 5 Chase starts

That ended up a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner

I just feel this years 6 year olds have too much on

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma

Irish Cavalier -Ptit Zig – La Vaticane


Wednesday 11th

Yesterday I showed how Saturday’s Badger Ales

Chase was dominated by lightly raced Chasers.

The last 9 winners of this race

Had the following chase runs before

5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5

None of the last 9 winners had 10 or more Chase runs

Horses that had 10 + Chase runs were 0-70

I think we need to take that hint

There are 28 horses left in this race

They have the following Chase runs

7 11 19 8 5 4 4 6 17 12 7 14 8 10

13 6 12 11 8 7 12 23 7 15 28 8 2 2

I think we must stay with horses with under 10 Chase runs

This leads to the following horses being rejected

DOUBLE ROSS 17 Chase runs

JOHNS SPIRIT 19 Chase runs

CROCO BAY 13 Chase runs

NEXT SENSATION 14 Chase runs

BENNYS MIST 23 Chase runs

TURN OVER SIVOLA 15 Chase runs

ASTRACAD 28 Chase runs

ANNACOTTY also has 13 Chase starts

I already have him on the positives list

I am now more inclined to put him on the negatives list

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma – Double Ross – Croco Bay

Irish Cavalier – Turn Over Sivola – La Vaticane – John’s Spirit

Next Sensation – Ptit Zig – Astracad – Bennys Mist

Annacotty is now on both lists


Thursday 12th

Yesterday I opposed horses with over 10 Chase runs

DARNA should have been in that list

I don’t want a 9yo debutant anyway

I don’t want a very poor recent run

PRESENT VIEW pulled up in the last 2 weeks

EASTER DAY pulled up in the last 2 weeks

SPLASH OF GINGE ran too badly too recently

LITTLE JON ran too badly too recently

GENEROUS RANSOM had a poor last run over hurdles

No past winner ran recently over hurdles

He also lacks backclass

Every past winner had form in a Graded race before

20 of the last 22 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form

GENEROUS RANSOM does not have that

CLOUD CREEPER lacks Graded form as well

THE CLOCK LEARY won’t run and is too inexperienced

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma – Double Ross – Croco Bay

Irish Cavalier – Turn Over Sivola – La Vaticane – John’s Spirit

Next Sensation – Ptit Zig – Astracad – Bennys Mist – Darna

Easter Day – Present View – Generous Ransom – Cloud Creeper

The horses we have yet to reject are below

KING’S PLACE – ANACOTTY – ART MAURESQUE

SOUND INVESTMENT – SHANPALLAS – BUYWISE

OSCAR ROCK – COCKTAILS AT DAWN


Friday 13th

The Final Declarations are in

There are 22 runners

No idea if this process we are doing will work

I want to tidy up our shortlist with 24hrs to go

SHANPALLAS is rejected

He has not looked like a Paddy Power winner recently

SOUND INVESTMENT is also rejected as well

He has 11 Chase runs more than the last 9 winners

He has Topweight as well

His ratings task is the same as Al Ferof in 2012

Thats a 7yo winning off 159

Al Ferof was a multiple Grade 1 winner

He had won a Supreme Novice hurdle as well

SOUND INVESTMENT is just a Grade 2 winner

He has never raced at Cheltenham before

Surely asking a lot to win off topweight

Without any experience on the track

ANACOTTY has been a positive and negative

I have to make a judgement call with him

I am taking him off the shortlist

13 Chase runs is a lot for a seasonal debutant

24hr Shortlist

OSCAR ROCK – I’d prefer a recent run + track form

COCKTAILS AT DAWN – Has positives + negatives

KING’S PLACE – Profile fine

ART MAURESQUE – We can no longer rule out 5yo’s

BUYWISE – Close enough to the past 8yo winners

Aintree Grand National Tips 2015

Some say the Aintree Grand National  is a race for mug punters only.

Others would say with competition between early price bookies and Exchanges  creating close to a 100% book on the day it is not  a bad value race at all and more so just a matter of strike rate.

Whether betting in in the £100′s or to small tiny fun stakes it is a race most racing punters will have a degree of interest in.

Some will stick a magic pin in their newspaper.

Others will research a little bit deeper than that.

If you are off the school that prefers a little more thought and consideration than the magic pin approach then go read the following comprehensive stats, ratings and analysis piece by avid horse racing  researcher Guy Ward

==>  Grand National Tips

 

 

 

 

Cesarewitch Racing Tip

If you have an interest in today’s Cesarawitch
well worth a look is The Mathematician’s preview of this race.

It is one of the more detailed pieces I have ever seen.

See Cesarewitch Tip

 

Such in depth style is not unusual however from Maths

See how he found big price value in some other recent major big races at these links

The Cambridgeshire

The Arc De Triomphe