The following is from Guy over at the mathematician site.

To visit his site click here  == > horse betting

The Saturday before the big festival at York and that means
Great St Wilfrid day at Ripon.
This year it will be run on soft ground like most of the races today.

I have tried to sort out the Great St Wilfrid a fascinating race today.
It’s a  tough sprint so wont be easy  to get right but as the major race today
I know many of you want an opinion on it.

RIPON 3.30

William Hill Great St Wilfrid (Heritage Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

3/1 Tajneed,  8/1 Rileyskeepingfaith 8/1 Tiddliwinks
12/1 Favourite Girl 12/1 Hitchens, 14/1 Midnight Martini
14/1 Signor Peltro  16/1 Advanced, 16/1 Johannes
16/1 Knot In Wood 16/1 Lowdown, 16/1 Pavershooz
16/1 Quest For Success 20/1 Damika, 20/1 Fullandby
25/1 Novellen Lad 40/1 Everymanforhimself.

* The Great St Wilfred is a 0-105 handicap over 6f
* Ripon has had 18 renewals of this race
* There are 57 similar Class 2 handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time were 0-67
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more are interesting
* I looked at 57 similar handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 6 + lengths had a poor 4-365 record
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year doing that were 0-111
* JOHANNES – KNOT IN WOOD fail that
* HITCHENS -NOVELLEN LAD  also fail that
* Those beaten that far over 7f or more last time were 0-61
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more aged 3 are 0-37
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Unexposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are 1-119
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Horses from 5f races has a 3-74 record
* None managed without a very recent run
* Horses from 5f without a run in 2 weeks were 0-28
* FAVOURITE GIRL fails that
* No filly came from a 5f like her anyway
* In 56 other races fillies from 5f races were 0-31
* PAVERSHOOZ also fails that
* In 56 other races horses from 5f needed a recent run
* Those absent more than 2 weeks were 2-109
* Those with 13 or more runs were 0-92
* PAVERSHOOZ fails that
* Exposed horses won 9 of the 18 renewals
* Those exposed and aged 5 were 0-76
* PAVERSHOOZ -NOVELLEN LAD fail that
* HITCHENS is also an exposed 5yo (0-76)
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS is an exposed 5yo
* I see him having the worst draw as well
* Those exposed and carrying 8st 11lbs or less were 1-125
* FULLANDBY -NOVELLEN LAD -  PAVERSHOOZ fail that
* Exposed horses aged 8 or more won 1 renewal
* That horse had past Group form and 9 + runs this season
* He also ran within 7 days
* FULLANDBY looks underaced for an 8yo
* KNOT IN WOOD looks underaced for an 8yo
* I looked at 56 similar handicaps
* Exposed horses aged 8 were 3-101
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 0-65
* That reinforces negatives for FULLANDBY – KNOT IN WOOD
* Exposed horses from 6f handicaps were 5-153 in this race
* None of these were aged 4 (0-25) or 5 (0-46)
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH fails that aged 4
* No past winner came from an 8f race
* None did it in any of the 56 other races
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* 3 year olds won 2 races but none were Male
* 3yo Males are 0-28 in this race
* LOWDOWN fails that
* I looked at 3yo males in 56 other races
* They had a 1-93 record
* Those 3yo Males with 9 + runs were 0-64
* LOWDOWN looks opposable on that front
* 3 year olds with under 13 runs were 0-25 in this race
* MIDNIGHT MARTINI fails that
* In 56 other races 3yo fillies with under 13 runs were 1-17
* That winner was slightly different coming from a 3yo handicap
* I wouldnt entirely rule her out though
* Horses aged 7 or more had a 3-73 record
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 0-33
* I looked at 56 similar races for 7 year olds
* Horses aged 7 and older were 7-213
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 2-196
* None had 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* JOHANNES fails that and has just 4 runs
* ADVANCED  fails that and has just 4 runs
* TAJNEED  fails that and has just 4 runs

SHORTLIST

* MIDNIGHT MARTINI is just shortlistable
* DAMIKA is 7 years old but shortlistable
* He has a recent run and is fit enough with backclass
* TIDDLIWINKS is an unexposed 4 year olds
* 4 year olds with 13-20 runs and a run in 2 weeks did well
* Those beaten under 3 lengths were 3-8
* Those from 6f handicaps are 2-6
* These 3 horses all have that profile
* TIDDLIWINKS has that profile

THE DRAW

* Since 2006 Ripon has 23 of these races with 13 + runners
* The recent winners came from these stalls
* 6 13 15 10 15 11 11 14 11 10 5 11 12 22 15 4 3 12 6 15
* Horses draw 1-2 had a 0-46 record
* Horses drawn 16 or more had a 1-55 record
* That clearly shows a middle draw is best

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

DAMIKA 20/1 looks overpriced and underestimated
( now best priced 18/1 CanBet VC Bet365 )

TIDDLIWINKS 10/1  Bet365 Ladbrokes Skybet

For best current odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-14/ripon/15-30/betting/

I think Tiddliwinks  has the outstanding profile. He made massive
improvement on the sand a year ago which has left him
well handicapped on Grass. He hasnt won yet on turf but
I dont see that as important as his last 2 runs show there
is serious ability on Grass. His last 3 runs were interesting.
He wont have been fit at York in July.
He did nothing at all wrong at York in the Skybet Dash when 4th
when he still might have needed the run.
Last time at Goodwood he had a horrible draw and still managed a creditable 4th.
The ground is an issue as he is not proven on soft ground but he has not
shown he doesnt handle it.
His Dam won on soft and placed on Heavy.
His father won on softer ground and has bred many that have done as well.
I’d risk it as I dont see a better profile in this race.

Some thoughts on Newmarket 2.05 today from Guy over at Mathematician Betting

==========================

I have previewed ten races today for full members.

For full service joining info See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

One of them I will pop up on the free blog.

NEWMARKET 2.05

Bbag-sales.de Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 1m2f

2/1 Psychic Ability, 11/2 Rumble Of Thunder, 13/2 Abergavenny 13/2 Spanish Duke,  Kindest, 10/1 Putra One, 12/1 Geneva Geyser 14/1 Bollin Dolly,16/1 Ramona Chase 40/1 All Annalena.

This is a complicated 10f Handicap. There are only 34 of these Class 2 handicaps in August. They’ve all gone to horses younger than BOLLIN DOLLY. My problem with PSYCHIC ABILITY  is having 1 run this year something no horse like him managed to do. I think the following statistic puts this in its right context.

* August has had 824 Handicaps at Every Distance
* Thats 824 races at any Distance in Class 2 and Class 3
* I looked at 3 year olds with 1 run this season
* There was a 3-67 record in these 824 races
* 1 of these came from a Group Class race so ignore that
* Those that had No Group class form were 2-52
* None of them won last time out (0-8)
* None of then won at shorter than 12f (0-42)
* Those with 8st 12lbs or more were 0-36
* Those with Under 5 career starts were 0-29
* That included 7 beaten favourites
* PSYCHIC ABILITY fails all these angles

I think the above statistics show it should be wise to try and get an alternative to PSYCHIC ABILITY who has after all got some Cheekpieces after just 3 runs. RUMBLE OF THUNDER is 4 and  has over 12 career starts and no 4 year old that esposed managed  to win with under 4 runs that season. I think he would have been Far better with another run. ALL ANNALENA also fails that as well. Horses aged 4 with 1-2-3 races this season need to be very  lightly raced and to have had form in Class 2 or higher. All those
that won also finished 1-2-3 last time out and failing those angles  is PUTRA ONE who may lack the backclass to win.

The 34 races show fillies having a 1-34 record and KINDEST is  not going to find this easy when you consider it’s a Handicap in Class 2 and she has never been out of a Class 4 race yet. She has benefitted from the rain but this is a step up in class for her. To  win a Class 2 Handicap you want recent form. The horses beaten  over 10 lengths last time were just 1-109 which puts me against RAMONA CHASE who was hammered last time. Horses aged 3 coming from 3yo handicaps have won these races.  However it is interesting None of them came from 12f races. None of them had an absence of more than a month and none had under 4 runs
that year. SPANISH DUKE has all of those factors against him.

* August has seen 286 Class 2 Handicaps at every distance
* Horses from 3yo handicaps when absent over a month are 4-79
* Those with 7 or more runs had a 0-47 record
* SPANISH DUKE has 9 runs and absent 63 days
* I think he is too exposed for a 3yo
* Especially facing a very unpleasant absence.

GENEVA GEYSER is 4 and has 4 runs this season and I see him  having too much weight for a 4yo with just 4 runs this year and  10st and he fails to make the shortlist.

SELECTION

ABERGAVENNY comes from a 3yo handicap but he has the
recent run and all the right backclass and is lightly raced and  thats a good profile and I dont see a better option. There is a question mark about the ground but there is no obvious reason why he should not appreciate it. I like ABERGAVENNY.

6/1 available widely including Betfred, Bet365, Ladbrokes

7/1 Betfair

check currest best odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-07/newmarket/14-05/betting/

Guy

The below comes from Dave Renhams blog see horse racing blog

The favourites stats are based on many years historical research.

( his members get much more detail including strike rate and return on investment etc )

As for the In running notes.

The rough idea with these is to back them pre race and lay them back in running. The rough logic behind them is that these horses are assessed by Dave’s research as prominant front runners and are therfore likely to trade at lower when betting in running compared to pre off prices.

———————————————————————–

Best races for favourites:

Newmarket  1.55

Newbury 2.45, 5.05

Haydock 6.40

Lingfield 6.50, 7.20, 7.50

In running notes

Horses I expect to trade lower “in running” – offering either free bets nothing or arbing opportunities to win money whatever the result:

3.25 Ripon Templetuohy Max

5.15 Newmarket Sutton Veny

6.50 Lingfield Sermons Mount

8.10 Haydock Welsh Emperor

Ten previews today for full members.
Impossible to go throughit all with so many
meetings and as ever it’s theusual Saturday balancing
act of trying to offer a balanced message with potential
bets withoutkilling the chances through looking at too much.

This feels like a tough Saturday to me. Plenty of
the big field Saturday television handicaps today.
Statistically the strongest profiles in these races
have non – statistical problems with the likes of
Our Joe Mac and Ziggy Lee in the 2.30 and 3.40
races having outstanding profiles but issues to
overcome with the ground and the draw. I don’t
see either as safe enough to go with as a bet. I’d
not see this as a message to follow all the way to
the end as the races are too difficult and there is
a limit to how many winners we can have today.

Would have liked a strong bet on a Saturday but
if there is not one so be it. I think the race that I’d
be best to advise to bet in would be the Haydock
Mile handicap at 4.40pm. I think I have the correct
mix of negatives prices and profiles in the race and
I want to use this race to try and get a winner for
full members.

They quite rightfully complain however if the strongest bets
go up here on the free blog so I have selected another race
from the main message here today.

CHESTER 5.10

Lambrini Original Handicap (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 1m2f75y

7/2 Norwegian Dancer, 7/2 Prince Of Johanne
9/2 Bullet Man 6/1 I´m In The Pink, 10/1 Kidlat
10/1 Paquerettza, 20/1 Geneva Geyser, 25/1 Dragon Slayer
33/1 Bagutta Sun.

This is a 10f handicap for 0-85 rated horses. We have 145
similar races at this time of year. I think KIDLAT looks to
have too much to do well beaten just 2 days ago. Horses
beaten more than 10 lengths with just 1 run this season
had a miserable record. Those like GENEVA GEYSER that
dropped in trip were 0-50 and he looks weak. Another to
fall foul of that stat is DRAGON SLAYER too old for me
to overcome such a defeat. I’d oppose BAGUTTA SUN
from a 7f race. Only 2 of the 145 winners did that but its
relevant none were fillies and none as inexperienced as
she is. PRINCE OF JOHANNE has a complicated profile.
I looked at all 4 year olds like him with 7-12 runs who are
running within the last fortnight and found a poor 1-39
record. I can improve that record if I look at horses that
ran 2-4 weeks away but none were 1st or 2nd last time
and most had less weight. I think he is a borderline case
for shortlisting as he is complicated. What I dont like is
his Draw in stall 1. At this trip thats not the best draw
as very low drawn horses can often get cut off at what
is a very quick first bend. Overall I felt he was never a
horse I would select so I leave him off the shortlist. It’s
hard to rule out I´M IN THE PINK but I was not happy
with a horse without any backclass coming down from
a 12f race and found a weak profile. As it is already a
heavy shortlist as it is such an open race I am leaving
I´M IN THE PINK off it as there are better profiles.

SHORTLIST

NORWEGIAN DANCER has a good profile and from all
4 year olds winning with 1 run that season he comes out
as quite similar to those so is a positive. I have found 1
similar winner to PAQUERETTZA. Not a prolific profile
but it gets her shortlisted. No reason why BULLET MAN
cant win this race. 3 shortlisted. Open race. Tight Decision.

SELECTION

BULLET MAN each way
5/1 PaddyPower Ladbrokes Betfred blue sq Stan James

Guy Ward

For More info on Guys advisory service

click here   ===> Betting Advice

In flat racing the horses start the race from metal starting stalls.
The draw refers to a horse’s placing / position in the starting stalls.
Draw 1 is on the left, while the highest number is on the right.
On left handed round courses the lowest draw is drawn next to the inside rail;
on right handed courses the highest draw is drawn next to the inside rail.

The draw can be very important at certain courses over certain distances.

This is due to a number of factors – it could be that some horses have an
advantage because they are drawn on the inside and are hence able to
take the shortest route round the bend.
Picture I guess the 400m in athletics and the advantage you would
have on the inside track if starting positions were not staggered.

Another factor that can induce draw bias is the ground.
It could be that the ground close to one of the rails is quicker than the
rest of the course and hence those horse drawn in the right position can
take best advantage of the better ground.

To give you an idea of how strong draw biases can be ponder Chester over
5 furlongs. 5f at Chester is a classic case of a draw bias resulting from track configuration.

Since 1997 horses drawn 1 (on the inside) have won 43 of 205
races which is better than winning 1 race in every five.

You would have made a profit backing all horses drawn 1 over that period.
Compare this to horses drawn 10 or higher who have combined to win just 1 race from 276 runners!

Knowledge of where Draw Bias is likely to occur is very important to have.

Draw Bias stats can be used in a variety of ways.

Well drawn horses should be given much more consideration when analyzing a race for example.
Conversely poorly drawn horses have a severe negative to overcome and
you should be wary if you wish to back them. You may use the draw to
eliminate all the weaker drawn horses in order to make the race easier.

Clearly occasionally these poorer drawn horses will win but overall the stats
will be in your favour. At some courses backing the best drawn horse or best
two drawn horses has made a long term profit – this is a rather simplistic way
of using the draw but it can be profitable.

Indeed you may want to consider backing the best drawn horses in forecasts and tricasts.
For example, looking at Thirsk over 5 furlongs – from 2005 to 2008 in 10+ runner handicaps
(the best races to use draw bias) if you had permed the highest four draws in twenty four
£1 straight tricasts in every race would have yielded a profit of £1265.24 (ROI +175.7%).
If you had permed the highest four draws in twelve £1 straight forecasts in every race would
have yielded a profit of £206.90 (ROI +57.5%).
This bet would have been landed in 12 of the 30 races (40% of races).
These types of forecast / tricast bet offer big returns for a relatively small outlay.

A further way to use Draw Bias information is to look for horses that run well
despite being hampered by a very serious draw bias against it.

A horse that comes 4th for example when very badly drawn could do much better
in a future race if on an equal draw or favourorable draw footing.

Dave Renham

Author Bio:

Dave Renham is a uk horse racing researcher who specialises
in cold hard facts and figures that can be used to open your eyes
to more informed betting propositions.

Draw Bias relative to each days racing is one area he covers in his excellent daily racing stats service.  For more info on this click here ==> Draw Bias

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

The below was provided by RacingTrends

for more info click here ==> Horse Racing Blog

=====================================

Sat May 1st 2010

Best races for favourites

2.55 Thirsk

4.15, 5.25 Newmarket

6.45 Doncaster

Trainer stat to note

W Haggas has a good record with horses off track for 8+ weeks assuming they start in the top 3 of the betting. His strike rate is around 30% with profits of just under 30%. He runs Shamali in the 1.55 Newmarket and he is currently 3^rd favourite.

Best race for front runners

5.15; 5.45 Thirsk

Strong course trainer stats

Doncaster trainer stats

Newmarket trainer stats

When it comes to uk horse racing it pays to know your trainers !

Trainers exhibit very different performances under varying race conditions.

Some do very well with their 2 year olds whilst others do far better with their other horses.

With varying training regimes aimed at peaking horses at different times of year monthly performance stats are also important to consider.

Dave over at PunterProfits recently compiled a serious research document into racing trainers who run on the uk flat season.

He tidied it all up and has created a neat pdf file with easy to use bookmark clickable links that jump you to the data on any particular trainer.

A few quick ideas for usage:

1 – If you like to assess your own races it is an obvious mine of extra information you can use to form a more correct betting opinion

2 – Use it as a base to create your own systematic betting or laying approach.  ie pick out for your self the criteria for a bet using the strike rate and profitibility records supplied. Look for the most positive stats if you are a backer or the most negative ones if you are a layer.

Two links for you to examine

A – a mini article covering three trainers with sample data pulled from the main pdf.  Click Here ===> Flat Horse Racing Trainer Research

B – A short video showing the full copy of the document in use

Click Here ===> Horse Racing Trainer Video

The free stuff above is worth a look.

To get the full research document you need to join as a full member of PunterProfits.

This research doc is just a little extra perk of membership there.

There are in fact three other similar research reports you get on joining.

One for All Weather Racing

One For National Hunt Trainers

And finally another comprehensive report into favourites.

Even if you only stay one month there you get to keep all four research reports.

Worth a look if you are serious about your betting on the horses and value having quality research to guide your judgement.

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics by Dave Renham

——————————————————-

Dave offers a useful free guide to horse racing.

To get yours click here ==> Horse Racing Course

——————————————————-

In this post I am looking at the Spring Mile, the Brocklesby and the Listed Cammidge sprint.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 15 renewals. All profits
and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on
investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.00 Doncaster -
Spring Mile – 1m class 2 (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

2.35 Doncaster -
Cammidge Trophy – 6f Listed (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

3.40 Doncaster -
Brocklesby – 5f conditions (2yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

STRATFORD 3.00

Alcester Selling Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+)  2m6f110y

4/1 Tabaran, 11/2 Dusty Dane, 11/2 Heraldry, Irish Legend
6/1 Answer Me, 6/1 Attorney General, 9/1 Triple Bluff
16/1 Little Rort, 25/1 Eskimo Pie, 25/1 Little Blackbeetle
33/1 Brookfieldshector.

* This is a Selling hurdle over 2m 6.5f
* There has only been 20 similar races

Interesting little race. Only 20 similar races but all 20
winners ran within 10 weeks. HERALDRY has been
absent 122 days and that worries me for a 10yo with
just 2 runs this season. DUSTY DANE has been off
111 days. There were the odd chasers win like him
but the only one that was exposed had Grade 1 form
and he doesnt and that absence has to worry for an
exposed horse. ESKIMO PIE has been off 99 days
and as a horse aged 11 lightly raced this year he is
not for me. TRIPLE BLUFF has a long absence and
as an exposed Chaser I couldnt find a similar winner.
LITTLE BLACKBEETLE is too inexperienced for a
mare. ANSWER ME has just 2 runs this season. I
looked at horses like him from 2m 5f or shorter and
just two runs that year and found a poor 1-49 record.
LITTLE RORT is rated far lower than most and has a
horrible task at the weights and should be out of his
depth. IRISH LEGEND certainly has the ability but I
do have some issues with him. He comes here from a
Chase and well exposed and these horses have not
been winning these races. You have to wonder if he
is in form. He has pulled up twice in a row and his
last run was only 3 weeks ago. TABARAN has a
pretty solid profile with a recent race and although
he has limitations he should run his race which is
something not all of these can say.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

He is exposed and only 3 Exposed horses won in the
20 races. However they all had Grade 1 form as he does
as well. Exposed horses with Past Grade 1 form in these
selling races had a 3-4 record and all 3 winners were 10
and 11 year olds as he is.

* Horses with Grade 1 form before
* Running within 7 weeks
* Aged 9 or more
* Having run this season
* 6 horses had that profile in 20 races
* They finished W W W W W 8
* The only loser was an outsider
* Exposed 11 year olds with this profile were 2-2
* ATTORNEY GENERAL looks interesting statistically

He is a problem horse and hasnt won in a while
but he is down to bottom grade with a recent run.
Just 4 months ago he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a
competetive 0-120 handicap and that form would
be good enough to win this. He lost his way after
that but last time was a much better run and I see
him having the best profile in the race

Best Priced 11/2 sportingbet

Guy Ward

To visit Guys site click here ==> free horse racing tips

Right now I have to admit I am more focussed on preparation next week’s Cheltenham Festival than today’s racing.
I have already researched all my stats for the Festival.
( up on full member private message board now )
As it stands today I have identified six horses over the Festival that have the potential to be full Account bets.
Going, final runners, a bit more fine tuned research  and odds available will dictate if I account Bet them or not on race day.

The cheap first month deal for Cheltenham is still on.
Time is ticking on it however.

Here is the cheap price link:

*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

Saturday Racing

I don’t see a bet strong enough to stake today as a full Account Bet.
I’ve 3 horses at the top of the full member message that look interesting.

One of them I will post up here on the free blog.

MICKY’S KNOCK OFF feels stronger but only because
in his race the opposition are easier to understand. The
other two runners have more unknown opposition but
it wouldn’t surprise me if they turned out to be stronger
options. Considering the frame of the races the bet that
stands out may well be 3 each way doubles on these 3.

Personally I’m having a small win bet on Micky’s Knock Off

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00

3/1 Il Forno, 4/1 Blue Neptune, 4/1 Magenta Strait
6/1 Bird Call, 6/1 Clear Ice, 6/1 Micky´s Knock Off
16/1 Crystal Glass, 50/1 Shawkantango.

The 4pm is a 3yo Claimer over 5f and these are rare as
contests. I would rule out everything with under 4 runs
as the 26 similar winners all had 5 or more starts. There
were 5 winners absent over a month. Interesting that 4
of them were fillies and that all 5 of them had between
9 and 12 career starts and came from handicaps. I had
3 on my shortlist. Horses like Blue Neptune that came
from 5f handicaps tended to run much better last time.
I respect Il Forno but horses from 6f claimers were 0-12
so I cant pretend I wouldn’t have preferred a better stat.
MICKY’S KNOCK OFF is a positive and my selection.
He has the required experience and a recent run which
many lack. He will be tough to kick out of the three. It
may be that around 7/2 he should be a win bet. He has
speed to burn and would have won at the 5f marker in
his last race. I think he will win.

SELECTION – MICKY’S KNOCK OFF

7/2 at Ladbrokes, PaddyPower , CanBet , Bet365

Best wishes
Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk