Wokingham Handicap At Royal Ascot

This fairly detailed assessment of today’s Wokingham handicap

was provided via the free service at Dave Renham’s Horse Race Report site.

 

Wokingham Handicap Stats

 
 
 
Course – Ascot
Distance – 6 furlongs
Date – June 22nd 2013
Average field size last 10 years – 26
 
There was a dead heat in 2003 so there are 11 winners in total not 10.
 
Market Trends
 
Favourites: 3 wins from 10 for a profit of £5.75 (ROI +57.5%).
Top three in betting: 6 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 7 wins for the top six in the betting (6 wins for top 4).
Price: Horses priced 6/1 or less have provided 4 winners from just 12 runners for a profit of £10.75 (ROI +89.6%).
 
 
LTO stats
 
Days since last run: A real spread of wins and no clear angles.
Position LTO: 3 wins for horses that won LTO (from 45 runners). 
Position LTO: 7 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 99 runners.
Position LTO: All 11 winners finished in the first six LTO.
LTO favourites: 4 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 41 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 6 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 87 runners).
LTO Price: Horses priced 4/1 or shorter LTO have provided 5 of the last 10 winners from only 37 runners.
Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten over 5 lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 86.
 
 
Age
 
Age
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
3
0
2
0.0
-£2.00
-100.0
4
6
85
7.1
-£11.25
-13.2
5
3
62
4.8
-£34.50
-55.6
6
2
60
3.3
-£15.00
-25.0
7+
0
53
0.0
-£53.00
-100.0
 
 
Official ratings (OR)
 
OR band
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
96 and below
4
76
5.3
-£33.50
-44.1
97-101
4
94
4.3
-£46.25
-49.2
102 and above
3
92
3.3
-£36.00
-39.1
 
 
 
 
 
Draw (NB 9 of the 10 races were run at Ascot so only 9 races analysed – 10 winners)
 
Draws
Wins
Runners
SR%
1-9
6
81
7.4
11-18
2
81
2.5
19+
2
83
2.4
 
 
Breeding
 
Breeding
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
GB
5
124
4.0
-£63.25
-51.0
IRE
3
105
2.9
-£81.50
-77.6
ITY
1
3
33.3
+£31.00
+1033.3
USA
2
23
8.7
+£5.00
+21.7
Other countries
0
7
0.0
-£1.00
-14.3
 
 
Class change
 
Class change
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Down in class
3
64
4.8
-£26.50
-42.7
Same class
5
155
3.2
-£76.75
-49.5
Up in class
3
41
7.3
-£10.50
-25.6
 
 
Trainer stats
 
Trainers: no trainer has won the race more than once in the last 10 years.
 
 
General stats
 
Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 1 win from 57.
Claiming jockeys: 1 win from 28.
Recent win: 4 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 102 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a loss of £75.25 (ROI -73.8%).
Handicap runs: Horses who have had 10 or less handicap runs have provided 10 winners from 119 runners (SR 8.4%); horses who have run in 11 or more handicaps have provided just 1 winner from 143 runners (SR 0.7%).
Career runs: Horses who have raced 15 times or less in their careers have won 9 races from 88 runners (SR 10.2%); horses who have raced 16 or more times in their career have won 2 races from 174 runners (SR 1.1%).
 
 
Conclusion – Interesting to see such a competitive handicap that averages 26 runners each year have 4 winners priced 6/1 or shorter. Having said that last year’s winner was 33/1 (the biggest priced winner in the 10 years). 4yos seem to have an edge and more lightly raced older runners also do well. A recent win within the last three starts would have incurred steep losses so that needs to be taken into account. Lower draws seem to have had the advantage, while it looks best to ignore any horse that was beaten more than 5 lengths LTO.

 

Wokingham Best Fit To Trends

For Current Live Odds see
http://punterprofits.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-06-22/ascot/16-25/betting/all-odds

The Wokingham with it’s large field size is obviously
not the easiest race to pick the winner in.

Working through my ten year race trends however
to find which horses are the best fit to the stats
would lead me to the following two

  • Duke of Firenze 8/1 generally
  • Nocturn 12/1 generally

A bit higher is available  on Betfair

For those of you who prefer each way note that several bookies are offering 5 places

Bet365 – sky – BoyleSportsPaddy Power – victor chandler

 

 

 

A Little More Info Today

With regards to the Ascot 5.00 Duke of Edinburgh

http://punterprofits.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-06-22/ascot/17-00/betting/all-odds

Key trends here are horses that were priced 8/1
or shorter LTO who are aged 5 or younger.
This narrows the field down by around 40%.
From there horses wearing headgear have an excellent record
and three of the initial shortlist are wearing some type of headgear:

  • Ustura
  • Silver Lime
  • Opinion

Hence this is my best trends based shortlist for the race with Opinion having the added advantage
of being trained by Sir Michael Stoute who has an good record in the race.

Best Wishes
Dave
www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk

Racing Tip For Kempton

Our old fried Guy Ward aka The Mathematician
is back with us again with his insight on one of
this afternoons races at Kempton.

One thing I know Guy is pround about is the fact that
he has clients who have been with him not for months
but for years and years and years.

This is almost unheard of in the racing tipster world.

If at all interested in his service proper contact
me here at sports-betting-blog and I will see if I can
wrangle a bit of an introducty discount of deal for you.

Over to Guy for today’s horse racing tip

============================

Lingfield has been abandoned but I suppose it
is a bonus that Kempton has survived. That is
the only English card today. For paying clients
I have previewed the first six races there only
leaving the finale alone a race that looks a bit
too dangerous.
Read the rest of this entry

Cheltenham Ten Year Trends

One of the many componants that makes up Dave Renham’s excellent RacingTrends service are his Big Race Trends reports.
Typically these cover several of the major races each Saturday but he also provides them for major meetings and festivals.
These are in addition to his normal daily high detail racing stats reports.
In short these big race trends reports examine individual races in detail in order to try and identify any key elements of form that will gives us clues as to value or likely winners in today’s races.
Today Dave has looked at several races at Cheltenham from a ten year trends approach.
 
1.55 Cheltenham – Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (registered as the Bristol Hurdle) – 3m (Grade 2)
 
POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 8 winning favourites (including joints) from 13 for a profit of £7.71 (ROI +59.3%).
Position LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO.
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 4/1 or shorter.
Days off track: 7 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for between 20 and 27 days.
Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 4/1 or shorter LTO (all 10 winners were 15/2 or shorter LTO).
LTO Favourites: Horses that started favourite LTO have provided 6 winners from 26 runners for a profit of £6.63 (ROI +25.5%).
LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record with 5 of the 15 qualifiers going onto win this race.
Trainers: 2 wins from 4 for Alan King.
Jockets: 3 wins from 5 for Tony Mc Coy.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have a poor record with 0 wins from 14.
GENERAL STATS
Age: 4 years olds have won 2 races from 7 qualifiers (SR 28.6%),5 year olds have won 3 races from 33 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 6 year olds have won 4 races from 19 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 7 year olds and older have won 1 race from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%).
Trends analysis: A race where the positive trends are key. Favourites have an excellent record and hence it is not surprising to see horses that finished 1st or 2nd LTO doing well also. Horses that ran at Cheltenham LTO should be respected and also look for horses that were fancied LTO – LTO favourites have done especially well. In terms of fitness, horses off the track for between 20 and 27 days have done especially well.
 
 
 
3.05 Cheltenham – StanJames.com International Hurdle – 2 miles 1f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 7 winning favourites (including joints) from 12 for a profit of £5.69 (ROI +47.4%).
Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. 7 won LTO.
Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts.
LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record producing 6 winners from 20 for a profit of £33.80 (+169%).
LTO race type: Horses that ran in a handicap LTO have provided 6 winners from 24 for a profit of £23.80 (ROI +99.2%).
Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners have run within the past 28 days.
Trainers: 3 wins from 7 for Philip Hobbs; 2 wins from 7 for Nicky Henderson.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Breeding: Irish bred horses have managed just 2 wins from 30 for a loss of £23.75 (ROI -79.2%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by more than 10 lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 17.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 21 qualifiers.
GENERAL STATS
Age: 4 years olds have won 3 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.7%),5 year olds have won 3 races from 18 qualifiers (SR 16.7 %); 6 year olds have won 1 race from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 13 qualifiers (SR 15.4%); 8 year olds and older have won 1 race from 16 qualifiers (SR 6.3%).
Trends analysis: once again there are plenty of positive stats. A run in the past 4 weeks has been crucial as has a position LTO in the top three (with a strong preference for LTO winners. Horses that ran at Cheltenham last time out have a very good record and this is a clear plus, while a run in a handicap LTO has also been a positive. From a negative perspective, horses beaten by 10 or more lengths LTO look worth avoiding, while Irish bred runners have generally struggled.
 
3.40 Cheltenham – Relkeel hurdle – 2 miles 4f 110yds (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter.
Position LTO: Horses that finished first or second LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners for a break even situation.
Course LTO: All of last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO.
Breeding: 6 of the last 10 winners were French bred.
Running style: 9 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace.
Previous Cheltenham run: 9 of the last 10 winners had all had experience of Cheltenham.
Trainers: 3 wins from 6 for Alan King.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Upped in class: Horses that were upped in class from their most recent run have a moderate record with 3 wins from 29.
GENERAL STATS
Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 4 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 for a loss of £3.00.
Age: 4 year olds have won 4 races from 19 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 5 year olds have won 2 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 11.8%); 6 year olds have won 2 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 11.8%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 11 qualifiers (SR 18.2%).
Trends analysis: The market has been a good guide in this race with the top three in the betting producing 90% of the winners. French breds have done well while a run at a Grade 1 track LTO has been of paramount importance. Trainer Alan King has done very well with 3 wins, while for in running punters hold up horses have performed poorly. In terms of age 4yos may have a slight edge but it is a little unclear.
 
 

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

 

Horse Racing Tip For Sandown

Another free Saturday horse racing tip from our old friend Guy Ward aka The Maethematician.

Visit Guy’s site at this link

==> Horse Racing Tipster

===============================

Sandown 5.35

For Latest Live Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-09-01/sandown-park/17-35/betting/

* This is a 10f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* Lets start with the Draw and 15 similar races since 2001
* 13 of the 15 winners were drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8
* Horses drawn in Stalls 1-8 have a 13-120 record
* Horses drawn in Stalls 9-16 have a 2-64 record
* Being drawn Under 9 gives you a far better chance
* No winners were drawn 14 or more
* CAPE EXPLORER – His profile is just about acceptable
* Wasnt enough for me to ignore Stall 15 though
* TALK OF THE NORTH – Unsafe profile and draw
* ICEBUSTER is out with a run this season
* SIM SALA BIM – Not right first time out
* HOT SPICE is underraced this year
* HIP HIP HOORAY looks worth opposing
* First of all she isnt well drawn
* Shes a mare winning an 8f race last time
* No Female horse did that older than 3 and she is 6
* Without a recent race she leaves me cold
* POETIC LORD has problems from 7f
* He is a bit too exposed to be doing that
* Every winner aged 8 + had at least Class 2 form
* EAGLE NEBULA only has Class 4 form and is out
* QUIXOTE 3 and drops from 12f
* He’s a bit exposed doing that and has limited backclass
* I needed far fewer runs or more backclass to match him
* BRIGADOON is 5 and won last time
* I needed more backclass and runs this year

Acceptable Profiles

* KNOW NO FEAR scrapes through but isnt for me
* Huge doubt whether he will stay this far up the hill

* HIGHLAND DUKE – Acceptable profile but no more
* He should improve but he needs to

* MIZBAH is 3 and drops from 12f
* Almost all 3yo’s doing that had under 13 runs he has 14
* There was 1 winner reasonably close to him
* MIZBAH – Not a strong profile but enough to shortlist

* HURAKAN – Definate chance statistically
* Not keen a 7lbs claimer rides though

S e l e c t i o n

* NELSON4S BAY has a very strong profile
* NELSON4S BAY is 3 and comes up in distance from 8f
* Looked at similar types with Class 2 form and 5-8 runs
* Those with 1-5 runs this year and not beaten too far
* Similar horses had a strong 4-11 record
* Those with 9st or more were 4-8
* NELSON4S BAY stands out amongst these

7/1 each way at Ladbrokes – blue square

 

 

 

Penalty Carriers in Uk Horse Racing

Horse Racing Penalty Carriers

In uk horse racing terms “a penalty” is extra weight
a horse must carry.

Normally it is applied if a horse has a second race
a few days after a win.

The official handicapper may not have had time to
reassess the horses official handicap mark
and due to the lack of time simply forces the horse
to carry penalty weight next time out.

It is I guess a system intended to stop
horses winning several times in very quick succession
from an over lenient handicap mark before the handicapper
has a chance to do his calculations and re assess the official handicap mark.

Penalty carries however have two obvious things going for them.
Having just won a  race they are obviously

- in good form

- have proven ability.

You can’t just back them all blindly and expect to make a profit however.
But with a bit of research you can certainly find past profitable niches
within penalty carriers.

See the article below for further reading.

Penalty Carriers

.

A Poor Saturday

Our usual free horse racing tip on a Saturday from Guy at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

==========================

There is an Intolerable ammount of Racing today and
on days like this I never finish the messages the clock
finishes me. I could have stretched two extra messages
from the races I havent had a chance to look at. There
are two pieces in the Racing Post about how the racing
is particularly difficult today as it’s dominated by large
field handicaps. Unusual for them to acknowledge it but
it’s true. It is Intolerable and any bets and races finished
will be down to a lot of luck. Might be a frustrating and
a bit untidy today. I fear for anyone betting through it all
and rain and non runners make it more dangerous.

I have no firm properly staked advised bet today
for clients or for free blog readers.
You don’t come out ahead in the long run betting
hard when conditions do not suit.

Need something however today..well ponder the below

D o n c a s t e r   2.05

9/4 Mawasem, 9/2 Grey Mirage, 6/1 Warfare, 8/1 Assizes
10/1 Gold City, 10/1 Shamaal Nibras, 10/1 Well Painted
12/1 Chapter Seven, 14/1 Mister Music, 16/1 Kickingthelilly.

* This is a Class 2  3yo handicap over 8f
* These races are rare and a tiny sample size
* WELL PAINTED – Dont like him from 7f maiden
* Not with just the single run
* GOLD CITY – All seasonal debutants were lighter raced
* KICKINGTHELILLY is too exposed
* MISTER MUSIC – Surely beaten too far 7 days ago
* The above horses are ones I’d avoid
* ASSIZES – Unsafe well beaten on seasonal debut
* SHAMAAL NIBRAS – Not convinced and bad draw

Shortlist

* GREY MIRAGE – An option but don’t like the absence
* MAWASEM – I dont like the record of 3yo maidens much
* None have won with just 2 runs or from 7f races
* He has to be a positive but I cant match him to a winner
* WARFARE – I can forgive him a defeat at York
* CHAPTER SEVEN – Better than he showed last time
* Comes from a hot race where he never had a good position
* Nothing went right and hampered and eased once beaten
* CHAPTER SEVEN could run better than expected

Selection

CHAPTER SEVEN 12/1 Each  Way
at Betfred Bet365 Coral PaddyPower

Scottish Grand National Racing Tip

Our regular free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician site is below

His full service has been on fire since Cheltenham.

To visit his site click here Betting Advice

—————————————————————————

We have had a decent week for full members here.
Only two firm advised bets over the entire week.
We attacked the 12/1 Coral offered about RIFLESSIONE
with an each way bet and got the place pay off.
Then on Friday we improved on 2nd spot with 8/1 winner VALMINA

We do have another firm bet today that runs in the 6.05
So plenty of time to join up as a member proper
and pick that up in the member area.

As for todays Free Horse Racing Tip.
This is not a firm bet. More so extra analysis and info
from the message extra analysis section.

But it is the big race of the day and the most asked for preview
for the free betting blog.

The Scottish National

A y r 3.25

For live Scottish National Odds odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-21/ayr/15-25/betting/

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I have looked at the last 18 renewals of this race
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* It is Just not the best preparation for this race
* JUNIOR has that against him
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* 3 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* JUNIOR looks underraced this season to me
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-19 record in this
* JUNIOR also fails this statistic
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-120
* No good coming here after a poor last run
* The following horses didnt do enough last time
* JUNIOR – ETXALAR
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 4 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18 4
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17 13
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 4 Chase starts.
* HARRY THE VIKING only has 3 Chase starts
* Thats one less than every 1st 2nd or 3rd
* HARRY THE VIKING doesnt come out that well
* HARRY THE VIKING is also a 7 year old
* We know 7 year olds dont win the Grand National
* In this race since 1992 they have a 1-55 record
* Horses aged 7 (1-55) look unsafe to me
* WALKON is 7 and may not get home
* PORTRAIT KING is 7 and lacks backclass
* He won the Eider last time and this is a second big test
* I see no evidence a 7 year old can do that
* OUR ISLAND – He isnt even 7 until next month
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-89
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* There was only 1 exposed winner aged 11 or more
* He had Graded form and 8 runs that season
* GARLETON – Not right as a 11 year old
* MERIGO – Has some flaws as an exposed 11yo
* The only winner like him had a more recent run
* He didnt win last time either and had more runs that year
* MERIGO – Credit for winning this in 2010 and 2nd last year
* ABBEYBRANEY – Wrong type of 11yo
* BALLYFITZ – HEEZ A STEEL dont offer enough aged 11 +
* 12 of the last 13 winners ran within 60 days
* ANY CURRENCY has been absent longer
* He looks underraced this year with that absence
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 3-89 record
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Graded form
* They all had 10st 4lbs or less as well
* KNOCKARA BEAU fails that
* FRUITY O4ROONEY fails that
* PETTIFOUR fails that
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* AURORAS ENCORE fails that statistic

* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* QUENTIN COLLONGES fails that
* OUR ISLAND also fails that
* QUENTIN COLLONGES only has 3 runs this year
* Some doing that have won but none aged 8
* No winners came from Hurdles
* PETTIFOUR – KING FONTAINE fails that
* GALAXY ROCK also come from hurdles
* Exposed horses won 6 of the last 18 renewals
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* AURORAS ENCORE – GARLETON fail that
* MAD AEDA doesnt look right
* The last 12 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out
* The following horses failed to achieve that
* PETTIFOUR – OUR ISLAND – ANY CURRENCY
* MOSTLY BOB – BE THERE IN FIVE
* GALAXY ROCK is not a negative
* Thats despite coming from hurdles. I can overlook that
* Decided not to shortlist him as an exposed 8yo
* Those that won all had more runs that season
* They all had more backclass and came from further too
* BE THERE IN FIVE also looks underraced this year aged 8

S h o r t l i s t

* MOSTLY BOB – Taking a chance on including him
* He had excused at Cheltenham and passes most stats
* Around 25/1 he could offer some value
* He was really progressive last year
* He has excuses in some races this year
* This track and ground could help him

* BENNY BE GOOD passes all the above trends
* He does have 11st 3lbs though which is a worry
* 8 of the last 10 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* I can overlook that given his price

* IKORODU ROAD sails through the above trends

Selection

Covering a few to small stakes with Ikorodu staked to
just return stakes on the other two if it wins

MOSTLY BOB 25/1 Win Bet ( a bit higher available on Betfair )
BENNY BE GOOD 25/1 Win Bet ( 36/1 Betfair )
IKORODU ROAD 12/1 Saver ( 16/1 Betfair )

Grand National Racing Tip

Our regular free tip from Guy

What else would expect today .. its his Grand National Racing Tip

———————————————————

We got a small win last Saturday for you with Vintage Star

grabbing a place at 20/1 early advised price.

Today is of course Grand National Day.

It’s that annoying day when Friends and Family all hassle me to give

them a good Grand National Tip.

Can’t they pick an easier race with less runners?

Here are my thoughts however.

It is not a race I will be staking with serious cash personally.

More so following the house wives out there with a small interest bet.

John Smith’s Grand National Chase

(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+) 4m4f

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-14/aintree/16-15/betting/

The Grand National changes every year as do the statistics bit by bit to

accomodate the recent history. This year the Fences are again different.

Some are slightly lower and landings raised in places as it slowly

becomes an easier race. That doesnt help us as the more testing

and unique the race the better stats work.

* I think we should mainly ignore the weight statistics

* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs

* Horses with 11st 6lbs have struggled overall

* Only Red Rum had won with more weight in recent years

* I would not get too hung up with weight though

* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st

* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs

* L’Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs

* Horses with 11st 5lbs or more won in 1965 1957 1954 1950

* I wont be ruling any horse out only on their weight

* It is a well known fact 7 year olds do badly

* It is now 72 years since one won and they are hard to bet

* ORGANISEDCONFUSION has to go as a 7 year old

* He is not 7 year as he doesnt become 7 until next month

* With just 3 runs this year it defies sense to bet him

* I am opposing these other 7 year olds

* VIKING BLOND – OUR ISLAND – THARAWAAT

* On the other end of the scale avoid teenagers

* HELLO BUD is surely too old as a 14yo

* Horses aged 8 do not do as well as many think

* Only 3 of the last 36 winners were 8 year olds

* Only 1 of the last 18 winners were 8 year olds

* If betting an 8yo make sure it is at least an 8yo

* If Foaled after the day of this race they are not

* Those foaled in Mid april and beyond are not yet 8

* Bindaree – Party Politics – Corbiere -the last 8yo winners

* They were all foaled early in the year

* They were all aged 8 and a few months

* Red Rum also won aged 8 and he was a January Foal

* Horses foaled after the day of the race are not 8

* They are just 7 and a few months old

* ON HIS OWN wasnt foaled until mid July

* That makes him only 7 and three quarters

* He is 6 months younger than most 8yo winners were

* He also has less Chasing experience than any winner

* QUISCOVER FONTAINE is 2 months short of being 8

* SHAKALAAAAKABOOMBOOM is a May 28th foal

* He wont be an 8yo for another 6 weeks

* He is short on Chasing experience and runs this year

* ALFA BEAT is not quite 8 years old yet

* TATENEN is one week short of his 8th birthday

* SMOKING ACES is also short of his 8th birthday

* Exposed horses struggle with few runs that season

* By exposed I mean those with 21 + National Hunt runs

* Those with 1-2-3 runs that season struggled

* They do in all Long distance Handicap Chases in April

* They have a dreadful record in all similar races

* Grey Abbey (Ayr 2004) had 36 runs and 3 that year

* Ballabriggs (Aintree 2011) had 21 runs and 3 that year

* I cant find any more exposed horses so underraced

* The more runs a horse has over 21

* The more runs he needs that season

* Be prepare to be lenient if a horse is close to passing it

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season

* 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6

* You can see None have won with 0-1-2 runs that year

* It is 4m 4f and these types just dont seem fit enough

* I would be keen to opposed all horses with 1-2 runs

* STATE OF PLAY is 12 and hasnt run in 371 days

* He heads my list of horses that are underraced this year

* BALLABRIGGS only has 1 run this season

* With 11st 9lbs it looks a horrendous ordeal for him

* BLACK APALACHI is 13 and has just 1 run this year

* Only 2 Teenagers have won and none since 1923

* None have placed since 1969 and he surely wont win

* DEEP PURPLE has one full race and half a race

* He has under 2 runs this year when an exposed 11yo

* I see him a extremely underraced this season

* JUNIOR has ran just twice this season not a good sign

* He has had fewer chase starts than all past winners

* I see him underraced this year and unsafe

* He started racing on the Flat and few National winners do

* His Sire hasnt bred a winner beyond 3m 2f yet

* PLANET OF SOUND has just 2 runs this season

* He is an exposed 10yo and I would want more runs

* WEST END ROCKER – He has only had 2 runs this year

* One of those was when he pulled up

* ARBOR SUPREME has similar problems

* Just 2 runs this year and a massive absence

* He has a longer absence than any winner in decades

* ON HIS OWN discussed earlier is also underraced

* IN COMPLIANCE is underraced this season

* MIDNIGHT HAZE is also underraced

* It is very important to have a recent race

* The past 20 winners all ran within 7 weeks

* In fact every winner since 1981 ran within 50 days

* The last that did not was Aldaniti back in 1981

* I don’t want a horse absent much more than 60 days

* The last 21 winners were absent this many days

* 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25

* 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25

* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups

* Horses 2nd in the National had these absence

* 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23

* 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102

* 17 of the past 21 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks

* I think STATE OF PLAY is absent too long

* WEST END ROCKER – ARBOR SUPREME are as well

* The following are absent longer than ideal

* CALGARY BAY has been absent 77 days

* CALGARY BAY doesnt appeal much

* Not keen on his Track form either

* ON HIS OWN has been absent 79 days

* ANY CURRENCY has been absent 77 days

* Class is important in a National Winner

* 10 of the last 11 winners won in Listed Grade or higher

* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)

* He won in Class 2 races but hadnt been tested in higher

* I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winer

* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival

* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight

* That was more than worthy or a Listed or Graded win

* 20 of the last 21 winners raced in Graded Class before

* The exception was again Ballabriggs (2011)

* The vast majority of the seconds also had Graded Form

* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced

* Exposed horses should really have past Graded Form

* Ballabriggs wouldnt have been exposed with just 1 less run

* One past race he didnt jump past the first fence

* He had really only had 20 career starts

* I would much prefer a horse with Graded Class form

* I’d argue the following horses lack the required class

* POSTMASTER – MIDNIGHT HAZE – SMOKIN ACES

* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance

* The previous 21 winners had the following Chase runs

* 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14

* 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14

* Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994

* He had 9 Chase runs and two more had 10 Chase starts

* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winner

* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups

* 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20

* 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8

* I’d be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts

* 8 of the last 11 winners had just 10-15 previous Chase starts

* I’d argue the following horses lack the right chase form

* CAPPA BLUE only has 6 Chase runs and fell in one of those

* That’s at least 3 less than every past winner

* JUNIOR has fewer chase starts than any recent winner

* SYNCHRONISED would be the joint least experienced chaser

* SHAKALAAAAKABOOMBOOM also has the minimum

* PEARLYSTEPS would be the joint least experienced chaser

* QUISCOVER FONTAINE only has 7 Chase starts

* OUR ISLAND only has 7 Chase starts

* VIKING BLOND only has 5 Chase runs

* The following horses look to be too risky

* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – Lacks the class and stamina

* ABBEYBRANEY looks out of his depth

* VIC VENTURI wont defy 62 days off as a 12yo

* SWING BILL wont get the trip

* MON MOME – I find it so hard to fancy him

* He is 12 and hasnt shown nearly enough this year

* WEIRD AL – If he ran his race he’d go close

* He surely is not man enough for this race

* SEABASS has a very unorthodox profile

* I hate the fact he comes from a 2m Chase

* Stamina must be a problem for him as well

* He hasnt won over 3m before under rules

* His Sire hasnt had a winner beyond 3m 4f yet

* His sires record in Class 2 and higher is telling

* He hasnt had a winner in that class beyond 3m 2f

* Ruby Walsh has also turned the ride down

* SEABASS does not look safe enough

* TREACLE is an exposed 11yo

* Two of the last 19 winners could say the same

* Passes most angles he has to be considered

* What worries me most is his 146 handicap mark

* Seems harsh for a horse thats won only off 122 before

* Not overkeen on his 62 day absence either

* Thats longer than any winner since 1991

* Not sure he has the class to defy that absence and rating

* There were 5 winners coming from Cheltenham

* Miinnehoma 1994 came from the Gold Cup

* Rough Quest 1996 came from the Gold Cup

* Bindaree 2002 came from the Trophy Handicap (6th)

* Silver Birch 2007 came from the Cross Country race

* Don’t Push it 2010 came from the Pertemps H’Cap Hurdle

* No winners came from Cheltenham Aged 9

* SUNNYHILLBOY – Not convinced he is the right type

* We know no 9yo came from Cheltenham and won this

* No Cheltenham Festival winners have won here in decades

* None have got within 28 lengths of the winner

* SUNNYHILLBOY is also a small horse not ideal here

* Do we really want a Cheltenham festival winner ?

* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE ran at Cheltenham

* He ran well and was a good 2nd in the Kim Muir

* No 9 year olds won coming from Cheltenham

* It worries me has had won just 1 Chase race

* That was in a Beginners Chase back in 2010

* The last 19 winners had 3-7 Chase wins before

* He fell at the second fence in last years race

* He has now fallen in 3 of his 11 Chase races

* The last 12 winners all had a better completion record

* He hasnt won at 3 Miles yet but that doesnt worry me

* Overall I feel he has too many weaknesses

* NEPTUNE COLLONGES is an exposed 11yo

* I’d like a couple more runs this year

* I wasnt convinced he would get the trip either

* Not sure he has the legs especially with 11st 6lbs

* RARE BOB – Has a good old fashioned profile

* I wouldnt fault him at all statistically

* His jumping here would be one concern

* The only time he fell before was at Aintree

* His only other race here was not without mistakes

* He will be vulnerable to improvers as well

* His profile demands he is respected

* My concerns is he may be too old fashioned

* Horses like him dont seem to win the race these days

* There must also be a stamina doubt

* The furthest he has raced has been 3m 5f

* After that race his trainer said he didnt stay

* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB was favourite last year

* He had an awful profile so did well to finish 6th

* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB is 11 years old

* He was brought down at the 4th on his seasonal debut

* He has really only had 3 full runs this season

* Thats a bit short for an 11yo and it worries me

* He fails a few minor statistics I have

* The last 19 winners all had more Chase wins than him

* They also all had more Handicap Chase experience too

* I Could turn a blind eye to those statistics

* He has won 5 times under rules all on right handed tracks

* Fair to say his hardest races were on left handed tracks

* Its another niggling doubt though

* Interesting runner and if he wins it is explainable

* I’d have prefered another run this year and more promise

* SYNCHRONISED has just won the Gold Cup

* This will take a better performance should he win

* His last run may have taken too much from him

* Horses aged 9 like him coming from Cheltenham struggled

* He has to carry a big weight with only 9 Chase starts

* If winning he would be the joint least experienced chaser

* SYNCHRONISED – I suspect he has too much against him

* I certainly wouldnt make him a negative

* The weight in the ground after a hard race is a worry

* There is a big case for him being a Saver in my view

* GILES CROSS – I see him as an overall positive

* The ground has come right and he looks an improver

* There are a few reservations I have about him

* I would like another run or two this year

* I wouldnt be certain he would get the trip either

* The last half mile could be quite a test for him

* Will he cope with the stamina doubt and 3 runs this year

* Those 3 runs were all hard races as well

* No surprise if he won but I am not sold on him

* CAPPA BLUE – has some minor issues but one serious flaw

* The least experienced chaser had ran in 9 previous chases

* CAPPA BLUE has just 6 and Fell -Pulled up in 2 of those

* That said Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts

* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts

* CAPPA BLUE has to be considered because of that

* CHICAGO GREY – Plenty of positives in his profile

* Well raced this year and ticks a lot of boxes

* I dont like the fact he comes from a 2m 4f Chase

* The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is not good

* I dont like the fact he comes from a Grade 2 Chase either

* Other than that there is a lot to like

* His trainer has a National Pedigree

* CHICAGO GREY also looks laid out for the race

* He certainly has the class and he is a big positive

* Reservations though in a number of areas

* He is lacking the Handicap Chase experience too

* KILLYGLEN – Has a good old fashioned profile

* I wouldnt fault him at all statistically

* Maybe the type that used to win this race but no more

* It bothers me has finished in only 9 of his 14 chase starts

* It bothers me his form at 3m 3f and more is PU PU PU

* It bothers me he was 66/1 in last years race

* He hasnt always been happy in a big field as well

* Bothers me he hasnt won a handicap chase before

* All that aisde he sails through my angles

* Many trends observers have also come round to him

* Shortlisted but I have listed plenty of shortcomings

* ACCORDING TO PETE is an exposed 11yo

* Well raced this year there is a lot to like

* He is consistent and not badly treated at all

* He has never fallen in 14 Chase starts

* There are some problems. May like it softer

* He is not a big horse either and I dont like that

* He jumps well though and I see a strong runner here

* ALWAYS RIGHT has 11 runs all over fences

* This is quite a classy horse with tons of ability

* Obviously his PU PU form recent isnt easy on the eye

* He has had a wind operation to cure a problem causing it

* That may or may not work but the price compensates

* He is lightly raced yet has more than enough Chase runs

* That earns him a lot of respect

* At the prices he is one of the most interesting

****************************************************

****************************************************

My Grand National Tips

From the above I have opted to cover a few horses to small stakes

I have assumed a £10 total stake

* CHICAGO GREY 25/1 £4 Win

* CAPPA BLEU £3 Win 18/1

* ALWAYS RIGHT £1.50 win 40/1

* ACCORDING TO PETE £1.50 win 40/1

* I am betting 4 horses in the race

* These are all win bets

* All advised at Betfair prices which of course may fluctuate a bit.

( if you want to bet on the nose in large runner field Betfair is normally
the best spot )

If you prefer to bet each way you can see live odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-14/aintree/16-15/betting/

It is worth noting different bookmakers paying out for different numbers of
places.

Victor Chandler are the pick as they pay out 6 places

Good luck whether you follow me or use your magic pin to pick your own

Best Wishes

Guy

PS In case you missed it we have a short term cheap deal on full membership
running.

Page will come down after the weekend.

See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/aintree-festival-racing-offer.asp

Horses Who Switch Stables

Horses Switching Stables – A Good Or Bad Thing?

As a punter one often looks for little clues pointing to a good bet.
One point that often attracts interest is when a horse is switched from one trainer to another.

Picture a young soccer player for example who had been with a lower league club
but who more recently switched sides and had the benefit of tuition from the likes of Arsne Wenger.
Would you expect him to improve his performance level a touch?

With horse racing switching to a new trainer can indeed have some impact.
However I feel myself it is perhaps point a bit like first time blinkers that may get
over reported and over bet as a result.

The reality is that a switch in trainer most often does not lead to a big gamble landed.

However some trainers are actually very very adapt at getting an improved run from a new horse in their care.
One untested theory could be their attitude.
eg do they send it out quickly to judge what it can do or do they train and improve
privately before unleashing the improved performer in a real race.

There is huge performance variation between trainers in this zone.

The obvious question to ask then is which trainers are very profitable to bet
when they have a new to them horse running for them and which should be avoided
by backers like the plague or layed on the betting Exchanges such as Betfair or betdaq.

This question has been answered for national hunt horses in an informative free article
over at PunterProfits.

Well worth a  read.

See Horses Who Switch Stables

Betting Guru

I got some great positive  feedback from Guy’s last tip for the Cheltenham Gold Cup

“brilliant race analysis”  &  “really took the race apart”  etc

I still like that tip as a good example of opposing the media hype which was all about Kauto versus Long Run.

If  you missed it have a look here Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Anyhow a shorter priced one today from him.

———————

L i n g f i e l d  4.00

9/4 Kingscroft, 11/4 George Guru, 6/1 Axiom
7/1 Dubai Dynamo, 10/1 Hung Parliament,Titan Triumph
14/1 Reve De Nuit, 16/1 Final Drive.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over a mile
* Not many similar races so hard to match horses
* HUNG PARLIAMENT – 4yo seasonal debutants struggle
* None had under 13 career starts as he does
* AXIOM – No seasonal debutants won aged 7 or older
* TITAN TRIUMPH won a 7f handicap last time
* No horse as old as him won again at a mile
* Coming up in class he has a lot to prove
* DUBAI DYNAMO doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* Not as a 7yo with just 1 run since last October
* REVE DE NUIT – Just falls short and looks badly handicapped
* FINAL DRIVE -Doesnt look well treated at the moment
* I think he may need another run this year
* KINGSCROFT is an exposed 4 year old
* Similar types from 8f handicaps were 0-4
* Career high mark and unsafe profile but respected
* GEORGE GURU – Unorthodox as lightly raced 5yo
* Acceptable profile and well raced this season
* He should have a fitness edge over most of these

Selection – GEORGE GURU

Prices are coming in a  touch since this was advised to full members earlier

13/8  available at PaddyPowerBoyleSports – s james – vc