Free Horse Racing Tip For Newmarket

Our regular free Saturday Tip from Guy at the Mathematician site.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> horse racing tips

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N e w m a r k e t   3.55

3/1 Tactfully, 9/2 Abishena, 9/2 Oojooba
7/1 Gifted Girl, 12/1 Graser 14/1 Na Zdorovie
Coquet, 16/1 Dare To Dream 20/1 Esentepe
25/1 Pretty Pebble, 33/1 Amthal.

The Montrose Fillies Stakes is a 2yo Listed race for
fillies over a Mile. It has an 11 year history. Always
a hard race to find the winner and so many shocks in
this race in the past show that. The History of this
suggests that the winner will have the following profile.

* She will have 1-2-3-4 career starts
* She will not have ran in the past fortnight
* She will not have come from a Nursery
* She will not come from a 6f race
* She will never have ran in Group class before
* She will have finished at least 2nd before in a race
* Horses winning 7f maidens have a 1-15 record
* None managed that with 1 career start
* I dont want horses from maidens with 3 runs
* No horse from maidens were absent 80 + days
* The bad news is this leads to a large shortlist
* The Good news is one horse does stand out

S h o r t l i s t

* COQUET – Shortlistable on my angles
* AMTHAL – Outside chance in an outsiders race 40/1
* GRASER – Has a reasonable profile
* OOJOOBA – Profile fine but I dont like the draw
* This years winning stalls over 8f here with 12 + runners
* 13 7 11 11 5 8 10 16 1 9
* The horse winning from Stall 1 was….Frankel !!!
* OOJOOBA may not find Stall 1 any help at all
* TACTFULLY won an 8f maiden on her only start
* Horses with 1 run finishing 1st or 2nd in an 8f maiden
* Running 2-6 weeks ago
* Horses with this profile had a 3-7 record
* Very interesting that 2 of these came from the same race
* The 2007 and 2008 winner won a Nottingham maiden
* TACTFULLY won the same race and has the same profile

Selection – TACTFULLY

7/2 at Tote vc Betfred Bet365

Scottish Grand National

AYR 3.25

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 5 Chase starts.
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-50 record
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 2-80 record
* None have won since 1997
* No horse placed at the Cheltenham festival has won this race
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-81
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days
* 7 of the last 9 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-16 record in this
* The last 11 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

I came down to 4 horses to consider.
Outsiders BALLYFITZ and REGAL HEIGHTS do have reasonable profiles.
I see MINELLA FOUR STAR and
ALWAYS RIGHT as having every chance as well.
It would be easy to go with ALWAYS RIGHT but perhaps as a saver
with MINELLA FOUR STAR the main choice of the pair.

Guy

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This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

Saturday Football Bet

VALUE OUTSIDERS

1PT Bristol Rovers to beat Stockport in League one 2/1 Coral or 9/5 PaddyPower and B365

(Saturday 15th August, 3.00pm KO)

We hit the bar backing the other Bristol side last week but hopefully Rovers will be capable of holding on to a 2-0 lead with less than ten minutes of normal time remaining. Sorry, I’m still a bit bitter about last week as you can probably tell. In all seriousness, I think Rovers look a good bet at a nice price on Saturday. Under normal circumstances, you wouldn’t usually be rushing to back a side that had just sold their twenty nine goal top scorer from the previous season. However, although the departure of Ricky Lambert is an obvious blow to Bristol Rovers, I think that they have capable replacements in Duffy and Kuffour, both of whom managed double figures last season. They will be eager to take their chance to build a reputation for themselves and persuade manager Paul Trollope that he doesn’t need to go and spend a lot of money on another striker. Rovers are a decent league one side and have benefited from a board that has kept faith with a young manager. Paul Trollope is beginning his fifth season at the Memorial ground and he has built a useful team with minimal resources. Trollope is actually the second longest serving manager in the division and the tenth longest serving manger in the country, which is some achievement considering the modern day craziness that sees managers sacked one game into a new season?

The main reason for this bet however, is that Stockport County just have to be opposed right now and a 2/1 quote from Coral was just too big to miss out on. Stockport were placed into administration at the end of last season and are still struggling badly. They punched above their weight for much of last year but have since lost manager Jim Gannon along with most of their best players in McNulty, Dicker, Rowe and Pilkington. There have been no new arrivals of any note over the summer apart from manager Gary Ablett. I am not convinced Ablett is going to be the man for the job at all and his record is far from inspiring. He has never managed in the football league and has just a spell as a youth coach at Everton and a stint as Liverpool reserve manager on his CV. He was only available after Liverpool terminated his contract at the end of last season.

Ablett has a very limited squad to work with and no money for new players. In a situation like this you need experienced players to see you through, yet Stockport have probably got the most inexperienced squad in the football league. The twelve players Ablett used at Oldham last week had an average age of just twenty two. Eight of them were under twenty three and the oldest player was just twenty seven. Although they left Boundary Park with a point last week, this was thanks to a man of the match performance from goalkeeper Fon Williams and was followed up by a 3-1 cup defeat at Huddersfield. The Hatters look nailed on for relegation and I will be looking to oppose them as often as prices allow. Paul Trollope seemed confident of getting a win in his pre match interview and I have to agree with him:

“Stockport are in a little bit of transition with a new manager and I’m sure Gary is trying to mould things how he’d like them – although that can take a little bit of time.

“We are confident that if we can produce the football we’re capable of and defend right, we can win the game.”

The Oracle

To Visit The Oracles site click here ==> Football Betting Tips

Market Bias Horse Racing System

The Market Bias Racing System is one from the betting think tank over at PunterProfits.com

It is an approach currently being monitored on the full member forums over there.  Its early days in the testing but it is doing well so far with a decent level stakes profit.

The general concept of is was to use historical research to indentify race situations where the outsider / long shots had a better than anticipated strike rate.

Forecast odds price bands are used to group horses into groups of fancied, middled odds & Outsiders. ( hence the Market Bias name tag )

There is also a filter based on horse age as this proved important in the historical research.

And remember the choice of race type / course etc is based on historical research.

So quite simply the system tells you..

1 -this particular race falls into a long term past profitable category for outsiders.

2 – the horse falls into the desired age band. ( its not too inexperienced or to past it )

3 – these are the horses today from that race that fit the price band.

Most often there may be two or so per race.

Overall its an interesting approach.

I think the ideal place to back these horses is Betfair.

Betfairs 20% better than SP big public quote is a bit misleading.

The reality is that short odds horses there go off very close to SP.

Long shots however on Betfair very often pay out well in excess of 20% above SP ( or any early bookmaker price )

Any how the selections for today are as follows

4.25 hayd
Atlantic Beach
Flying Applause
Jack Rackham

5.00 hay
Kashimin
Supermassive Muse

Nb there is quite a bit going on over at PunterProfits.com

There are research articles, research reports, historic data downloads on certain areas. Also monitored systems by the site organisers and by clients alike. ( the research provided is a great starting point for anyone seeking to create their own educated systems )

Any reader of sports betting blog is welcome to test the site out with a one month free trial. ( you will have to stick card details in as they do not want anomononous nobodies with a throw away email address in their private forums )

Your first month will be free however. Its a good way to judge if suitable for your self.

See their contact page and email the admin email address quoting the free trial for sports betting blog viewers and you will get free trial join instructions sent back to you.

To go to their site now  click here ==> Horse Racing Systems

Saturday Racing Analysis

Saturday Racing Analysis from Dave Renham of RacingTrends

To Visit Dave’s site Click Here ===> Horse Racing Statistics

Two big races today where I have taken a 20 year trends approach in an attempt to create some shortlists.

3.10 Newmarket – 2000 Guineas – 1m Group 1 (3yo)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 12 of the last 20 winners came from second to fourth in the betting. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £24.00 (ROI +36.4%).

Last time out winners: 17 of the last 20 winners won LTO.

Price: 16 of the last 20 winners have been priced between 3/1 and 11/1. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £37.00 (ROI +41.6%).

Seasonal debut: 14 of the last 20 winners were making their seasonal debut.

Draw: In big fields (18+ runners) all winners have been drawn middle to high. The lowest winning stall position in such races has been 12.

Trainers: Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times since 1998. Sir Michael Stoute has been successful 3 times in 1997, 2000 and 2001.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market position: Horses 7th or bigger in the betting market have provided 2 winners from 215 runners for a loss of £172.00 (ROI -80%).

Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 148 runners.

Career starts: Horses that raced 8 times or more in their career have provided 0 winners from 44.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 3 wins from 20 for a loss of £11.67 (ROI -58.4%).

Course winners: Course winners have won 7 races from 97 (SR 7.2%); non course winners have won 13 races from 245 (SR 5.3%).

Trends analysis: Essentially this has been a market driven race although favourites have a poor record. Horses 2nd to 4th in the betting have proved the most successful and indeed profitable. Last time out winners not surprisingly have a good record, while horses making their seasonal debut are around 5 times more likely to win than horses that have already run this year (wins to runs ratio). Big priced outsiders (33/1 or bigger) have not scored in the last 20 years. Finally, runners from the stable of Aidan O’Brien clearly demand the upmost respect.

Conclusion – no horse perfectly matching the trends so we have to find horses that match the trends the best. Both Aidan O’Brien’s horses did not win LTO (which is a negative) and of the pair Mastercraftsman looks the right portion of the betting. Arguably the best fit is Evasive – currently 10/1 4th favourite. So from a trends perspective Evasive and Mastercraftsman look the rip. Rip Van Winkle if deposed as favourite (which is possible) then that would make up the trends trio.

3.45 Newmarket – Palace House Stakes – 5f Group 3 (3yo+)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 15 of the last 20 winners were single figure prices.

Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 9 winners. That equates to 45% of the races from which they have provided just 20% of the total runners.

Market position LTO: 12 of the last 20 winners were favourite or 2nd favourite LTO.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price LTO: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger on their previous start have provided just 1 winner from 47 for a loss of £30.00 (ROI -63.8%).

Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 4 or more lengths LTO have provided just 3 winners from 101 runners for a loss of £59.00 (ROI -58.4%).

Class LTO: Horses that raced in Group company LTO have provided just 3 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £37.50 (ROI -65.8%). However, they have provided 2 of the last 4 winners.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 8 wins from 23 for a profit of 34 pence!

Age: 3yos have won 5 races from 60 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 4yos have won 7 races from 76 qualifiers (SR 9.2%); 5yos have won 5 races from 44 qualifiers (SR 11.4%); 6yos have won 2 races from 38 qualifiers (SR 5.3%); 7yos+ have won 1 race from 42 qualifiers (SR 2.4%).

Sex of horse: Male runners have won 16 races from 199 runners (SR 8%); female runners have won 4 races from 61 (SR 6.6%).

Trends analysis: Horses priced in single figures is a potential starting point, while, it looks best to ignore horses that were beaten by 4 or more lengths LTO and those that were priced 16/1 or bigger on their most recent start. Combining this one positive and two negative stats your shortlist would have found the winner in 70% of the races from just 27% of the total runners. Another negative worth using when eliminating runners is horses aged 7 or more.

Conclusion – Chief Editor, Borderlescott and Amour Propre are the obvious three for the trends pick.

Best Wishes

Dave Renham

www.RacingTrends.co.uk