Grand National Statistics provided by RacingTrends.co.uk
4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top 8 in the betting. Hence 70% of the winners have come from 22% of the runners. |
| Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further – this stat holds true right back to 1970. |
| Age: 9 and 10yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners from under 50% of the runners. |
| Weight: All of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less. |
| Trainers: 5 of the last 9 winners were trained in Ireland. |
| Running style: 6 of the last 10 winners raced prominently from the start, and 9 were prominent starting their second circuit. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 91 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from 29 and none have finished in the first four). 13yo and older runners are rare but all 13 have been soundly beaten. |
| Price 40/1+: 0 wins from 195 qualifiers. |
| Weight: The top 5 in the weights (inc. joints) have won 0 races from 52. |
| Breeding: All 98 French bred horses have been beaten. |
| Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 62, with 2 further finishing placed (LOSS of £54.00; ROI -87.1%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 19 for a loss of £3.00. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: F, U, F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R, 1/6 |
| Trends Summary: Although the Grand National has a large number of runners, several can be eliminated from calculations from a trends/stats perspective. Firstly ignore horses 7 or younger and those 13 or older, horses priced 40/1 or bigger, French breds, the top 5 of the weights, horses carrying over 11st 1lb and horses wearing headgear. Using this method would have left you with around 25% of the runners and all the winners would have been in this group. Essentially you should be able to narrow down a 40 strong field to a shortlist of around 10 or 11 runners. This makes selecting the winner somewhat easier! Irish trainers deserve maximum respect also as they have provided 50% of the winners from 17% of the total runners. |