Haydock Horse Racing Advice

Haydock Horse Racing Advice

The below comes from Guy over at Horse Betting Blog

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Clearly the big issue today is the rain that is falling everywhere.
We might see ground changes at many tracks but that’s not
certain to happen and it does make it impossible to approach
the day as confident as I would like.
The Conditions are against us with this rain.
If I were to have an account bet today I couldn’t answer
the obvious question of whether the ground is right so
decided to have a No Account Bet Saturday because of this.

By tomorrow we will know the Newmarket ground better
and the draw advantage so Sunday may be the time for a
bet there.

Despite the above I know many of you will want to have an interest today.
Here is one to consider if so.

HAYDOCK 3.00

EBF Joan Westbrook Pinnacle Stakes (Listed Race)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m3f200y

11/4 Barshiba, 9/2 Becqu Adoree, 5/1 Les Fazzani
5/1 Polly´s Mark, 11/2 Rosika, 7/1 Flame Of Gibraltar
20/1 Three Moons, 25/1 Cassique Lady
33/1 Victoria Montoya, 40/1 All Annalena.

Never done this race before. It’s a Listed Class race for
fillies just short of 12 furlongs. There are just 7 renewals
of this race and no identical races elsewhere.
This race has always been won by a 4 year old.
They have won all 7 renewals so I would be wary of older horses.
That puts me off CASSIQUE LADY-VICTORIA MONTOYA -
BARSHIBA – LES FAZZANI.
We know this is a strong race for seasonal debutants.
If you look at horses who have run this season in the past 7
years you find  none  of then had more than 13 starts.
That is another pointer against the horses above.
ALL ANNALENA did not do enough last time.
THREE MOONS has to go with 1 run this year and up in distance.
POLLYS MARK has some chance but I want a debutant.

The ideal profile is this -

* 4 year old
* Seasonal debutant
* At least 3 career starts
* Running over 10f-13f last time
* At least 2 career wins
* There were 4 horses with that profile
* These 4 horses finished W W W W
* They won in 2009 2007 2005 2003

* BECQU ADOREE comes out well
* FLAME OF GIBRALTA is close to making that
* She just lacks a second win
* Dont rule her out though
* The 2007 winner came from the same trial race as her
* ROSIKA also comes from that same trial race
* ROSIKA is statistically perfect

The problem you have is ROSIKA wont be proven on
the ground if it changes as expected. The rain brings
POLLY’S MARK more into it. Given all the options I’d
still be happier with an unraced 4 year old so given that
BECQU ADOREE has form on the ground I will go with
her. BECQU ADOREE is the selection.

Racing Tip For Chester

Chester 3.20 ( from www.mathematicianbetting.co.uk )

BENEDICTE  £50 Win Bet 7/4 +
( 2/1 available at Betfred )

CRABBIES ALCOHOLIC GINGER BEER
MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES(CLASS 4) (3yo+)  1m2f75y

9/4 Crazy Chris, 5/2 Benedicte, 3/1 Nesayem, 6/1 Amroth,
12/1 Triple Cee, 50/1 Sacco D’Oro, 66/1 Amber Glow.

This is an all aged Maiden for fillies. There has been about 29 races like this at this time of year. Unraced horses were 0-46 so SACCO D´ORO is rejected. I dont want any horse beaten 10 lengths or more last time. They’ve a 1-27 record. AMBER GLOW would’ve failed that in a bumper last time out. Its very Interesting that 28 of the 29 winners were 3  year olds. Older horses have a poor 1-47 record. I’d worry CRAZY CHRIS is an older horse and that he has to give 6lbs to 4 Three year olds. It wouldnt be a surprise if one was too strong for her. The following is interesting

* September-October has 380 all aged maidens
* Thats 380 maidens at every and any distance
* Older Fillies like CRAZY CHRIS have a 6-391 record
* Those with under 4 career runs are 0-188
* Those with under 2 runs that season are 0-136

Those stats are not as great as they sound as many of
them were not fancied but it raises great doubts about
CRAZY CHRIS’s ability to give weight away and I’d
be looking for an alternative. AMROTH doesnt have
any major flaws I can see. BENEDICTE was expensive
and you can bet she wasnt at her best last time out and
had a quiet introduction. I don’t want TRIPLE CEE as
horses from 3yo handicaps were 0-24 and she comes
down from 13f to 10f and I see her as unsafe. I would
look to AMROTH as one of the potential winners but
BENEDICTE looked quite an interesting runner. Very
well bred half sister to Amadeus Wolf and I think she
will improve a lot on her second run. NESAYEM  sets
the benchmark coming from Handicaps rated 67. She
sets a reasonable standard and will be able to draw on
her experience here. What draws me to BENEDICTE
is the fact NESAYEM whilst attractive statistically
couldnt beat Pyrus Time two runs ago at Lingfield
and that horse has a 0-14 record and was beaten in
a seller yesterday and is exposed and I think I should
give the chance to BENEDICTE to improve past her.

Guy Ward

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Free Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tip For Ripon

RIPON 2.45

EUROPEAN BREEDERS´ FUND FILLIES´
HANDICAP(CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-80)1m1f170y

7/2 Antigua Sunrise, 7/2 Cascata, 9/2 Atabaas Allure,
9/2 Cwm Rhondda, 7/1 Kaloni, 8/1 Sparkling Crystal,
10/1 Island Music, 20/1 Tres Froide, 33/1 Shosolosa.

This is a Fillies Handicap just short of 10 furlongs. I have looked at the 12 renewals of this race and all 44 similar races in August. My negatives are these. CASCATA has to go with 3 runs and just a couple this year. I couldnt find a winner who had a similar profile.  CWM RHONDDA wouldnt be my first  choice as older horses with absences struggled and I didnt like  her profile. ISLAND MUSIC and TRES FROIDE would also  be negatives as well as no 4 year old came up in trip from an  8f race last time out. SHOSOLOSA is outclassed and I would  avoid these five horses in this race. This leaves a shortlist of Four. I felt they were all interesting in one way or another
without being exceptional but if I had to pick two it would be ANTIGUA SUNRISE and ATABAAS ALLURE

ATABAAS ALLURE has just come from Goodwood when
she couldnt dominate a Class 2 handicap. I dont mind that
as she was hardly beaten far and its a race that has provided a past winner of this race before and her form stands up to scrutiny. I see her trying to make all here and on a front runners track she may be able to run these into the ground.

I think ANTIGUA SUNRISE is a slightly better horse but
is she a better horse at short of 10 furlongs ? She won two on the bounce in May and June and looked progressive. It  was no surprise she lost two runs ago stepped up in trip when  statistically weak and running over a trip thats beyond her.  She ran very well last time out considering she was a big negative coming down half a mile in trip. Her runs at this  trip all came before her improvement and whilst its probably a bit on the short side I think she will cope with it but its not a front runners track and ATABAAS ALLURE could well have flown and could be hard to catch.

SELECTION

ATABAAS ALLURE 5/1 each way

Guy Ward

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tip

Grand National Statistics

Grand National Statistics provided by RacingTrends.co.uk

4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top 8 in the betting. Hence 70% of the winners have come from 22% of the runners.
Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further – this stat holds true right back to 1970.
Age: 9 and 10yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners from under 50% of the runners.
Weight: All of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.
Trainers: 5 of the last 9 winners were trained in Ireland.
Running style: 6 of the last 10 winners raced prominently from the start, and 9 were prominent starting their second circuit.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 91 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from 29 and none have finished in the first four). 13yo and older runners are rare but all 13 have been soundly beaten.
Price 40/1+: 0 wins from 195 qualifiers.
Weight: The top 5 in the weights (inc. joints) have won 0 races from 52.
Breeding: All 98 French bred horses have been beaten.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 62, with 2 further finishing placed (LOSS of £54.00; ROI -87.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 19 for a loss of £3.00.
Finishing positions of favourites: F, U, F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R, 1/6

Trends Summary: Although the Grand National has a large number of runners, several can be eliminated from calculations from a trends/stats perspective. Firstly ignore horses 7 or younger and those 13 or older, horses priced 40/1 or bigger, French breds, the top 5 of the weights, horses carrying over 11st 1lb and horses wearing headgear. Using this method would have left you with around 25% of the runners and all the winners would have been in this group. Essentially you should be able to narrow down a 40 strong field to a shortlist of around 10 or 11 runners. This makes selecting the winner somewhat easier! Irish trainers deserve maximum respect also as they have provided 50% of the winners from 17% of the total runners.