Cheltenham Ten Year Trends

One of the many componants that makes up Dave Renham’s excellent RacingTrends service are his Big Race Trends reports.
Typically these cover several of the major races each Saturday but he also provides them for major meetings and festivals.
These are in addition to his normal daily high detail racing stats reports.
In short these big race trends reports examine individual races in detail in order to try and identify any key elements of form that will gives us clues as to value or likely winners in today’s races.
Today Dave has looked at several races at Cheltenham from a ten year trends approach.
 
1.55 Cheltenham – Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (registered as the Bristol Hurdle) – 3m (Grade 2)
 
POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 8 winning favourites (including joints) from 13 for a profit of £7.71 (ROI +59.3%).
Position LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO.
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 4/1 or shorter.
Days off track: 7 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for between 20 and 27 days.
Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 4/1 or shorter LTO (all 10 winners were 15/2 or shorter LTO).
LTO Favourites: Horses that started favourite LTO have provided 6 winners from 26 runners for a profit of £6.63 (ROI +25.5%).
LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record with 5 of the 15 qualifiers going onto win this race.
Trainers: 2 wins from 4 for Alan King.
Jockets: 3 wins from 5 for Tony Mc Coy.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have a poor record with 0 wins from 14.
GENERAL STATS
Age: 4 years olds have won 2 races from 7 qualifiers (SR 28.6%),5 year olds have won 3 races from 33 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 6 year olds have won 4 races from 19 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 7 year olds and older have won 1 race from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%).
Trends analysis: A race where the positive trends are key. Favourites have an excellent record and hence it is not surprising to see horses that finished 1st or 2nd LTO doing well also. Horses that ran at Cheltenham LTO should be respected and also look for horses that were fancied LTO – LTO favourites have done especially well. In terms of fitness, horses off the track for between 20 and 27 days have done especially well.
 
 
 
3.05 Cheltenham – StanJames.com International Hurdle – 2 miles 1f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 7 winning favourites (including joints) from 12 for a profit of £5.69 (ROI +47.4%).
Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. 7 won LTO.
Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts.
LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record producing 6 winners from 20 for a profit of £33.80 (+169%).
LTO race type: Horses that ran in a handicap LTO have provided 6 winners from 24 for a profit of £23.80 (ROI +99.2%).
Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners have run within the past 28 days.
Trainers: 3 wins from 7 for Philip Hobbs; 2 wins from 7 for Nicky Henderson.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Breeding: Irish bred horses have managed just 2 wins from 30 for a loss of £23.75 (ROI -79.2%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by more than 10 lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 17.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 21 qualifiers.
GENERAL STATS
Age: 4 years olds have won 3 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.7%),5 year olds have won 3 races from 18 qualifiers (SR 16.7 %); 6 year olds have won 1 race from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 13 qualifiers (SR 15.4%); 8 year olds and older have won 1 race from 16 qualifiers (SR 6.3%).
Trends analysis: once again there are plenty of positive stats. A run in the past 4 weeks has been crucial as has a position LTO in the top three (with a strong preference for LTO winners. Horses that ran at Cheltenham last time out have a very good record and this is a clear plus, while a run in a handicap LTO has also been a positive. From a negative perspective, horses beaten by 10 or more lengths LTO look worth avoiding, while Irish bred runners have generally struggled.
 
3.40 Cheltenham – Relkeel hurdle – 2 miles 4f 110yds (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter.
Position LTO: Horses that finished first or second LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners for a break even situation.
Course LTO: All of last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO.
Breeding: 6 of the last 10 winners were French bred.
Running style: 9 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace.
Previous Cheltenham run: 9 of the last 10 winners had all had experience of Cheltenham.
Trainers: 3 wins from 6 for Alan King.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Upped in class: Horses that were upped in class from their most recent run have a moderate record with 3 wins from 29.
GENERAL STATS
Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 4 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 for a loss of £3.00.
Age: 4 year olds have won 4 races from 19 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 5 year olds have won 2 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 11.8%); 6 year olds have won 2 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 11.8%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 11 qualifiers (SR 18.2%).
Trends analysis: The market has been a good guide in this race with the top three in the betting producing 90% of the winners. French breds have done well while a run at a Grade 1 track LTO has been of paramount importance. Trainer Alan King has done very well with 3 wins, while for in running punters hold up horses have performed poorly. In terms of age 4yos may have a slight edge but it is a little unclear.
 
 

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Trends For Cheltenham

3.05 Cheltenham – International Hurdle – 2 miles 1f (Grade 2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 7 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 for a profit of £4.69 (ROI +42.6%).
Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts (this stretches back to the last 17 renewals).
LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record producing 6 winners from 20 for a profit of £33.79 (+169%). Indeed focusing on the runners that raced in the Greatwood Hurlde LTO this improves to 5 wins from 11 for a profit of £40.42 (ROI +367.4%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 23.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 16 qualifiers.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4 years olds have won 2 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 13.3%),5 year olds have won 4 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 26.7%); 6 year olds have won 1 race from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 14 qualifiers (SR 14.3%); 8 year olds and older have won 1 race from 16 qualifiers (SR 6.3%).

Trends analysis: the best starting point looks to be horses that finished in the first three LTO as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. From there, look for horses that have won at least once in their last four starts. Horses that ran at Cheltenham last time out have a good record, especially those that ran in the Greatwood hurdle LTO.. Favourites also have a very good record. From a negative perspective, horses beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO look worth avoiding. In terms of age, 5 year olds have done well.

Provided by www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Aintree Trends and Statistics

The below comes from Dave over at Racing Trends.

Stats are based on ten years historical data.

You can read more from Dave at this link  Horse Racing Blog

Saturday

1.45 John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 2m4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners started in the first two of the betting. Second favourites have won 5 races (PROFIT of £14.08; ROI +156.4%).
Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/2 or shorter.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
LTO race: 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival and all 5 had finished sixth or better.
Races in current season: 8 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had five runners and 3 have won (1 placed).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 20/1+: 0 wins from 44 (only 3 placed).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 15 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 27 runners (only 2 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 5, 2, F, 4, 3, 1/2, 5, 3, 5, 1
Age: 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (although they made up 66% of the runners).

Trends Summary: 5 and 6yos dominate the race but they do provide the majority of the runners. Second favourites have performed very well winning half the races, while a decent effort at Cheltenham LTO is another positive. Most of the winners had run at least four times that season which is a further positive to bear in mind. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race so any runner from the stable requires close scrutiny.





2.15 Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Race LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter (9 winners were 4/1 or shorter).
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners were first or second in the betting. Second favourites have won 6 renewals (PROFIT of £12.33; ROI +112.1%).
Breeding: 5 of the last 10 winners were French bred (6 others were placed).
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had 4 winners in the past 10 renewals (5 in last 12).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 13/2+: 0 wins from 43 (only 4 placed).
Breeding: British bred runners have provided 0 winners from 16 with only 1 placed runner.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins, 6 seconds from 10.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2

Trends Summary: The best starting point is to look for horses that ran in the Arkle Chase LTO as they have provided 80% of the winners from around 50% of the total runners. The market has been a very strong indicator also with no winner priced over 6/1. Indeed there have been 9 winners priced 4/1 or shorter. In terms of breeding Feench breds definitely have an edge while British bred runners have struggled. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race.





2.50 John Smith’s Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 5 of the last 10 winners finished out of the frame / fell LTO.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 12/1 or shorter.
Trainers: 6 of the last 10 winners (60%) were trained in Ireland. Irish raiders have accounted for only a quarter of the total runners).
Jockeys: Ruby Walsh has had 3 wins from 6 rides in the race; Timmy Murphy has had 3 wins from 8.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Headgear: 0 wins from 25 runners for horses with any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue ties).
Price 14/1+: 0 wins from 47 (4 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12, but 5 others have finished second.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 7, 2, 1/2, F, 2, 10, 1/2, 4, 3
Breeding: Irish bred runners do have a slight edge having won 6 races (60%) from 40% of the total runners.

Trends Summary: Horses priced 12/1 or shorter have dominated the race while a good run LTO is not a necessity. Irish runners have an outstanding record in the race not just in the last 10 years but stretching back to the mid 70s. Irish breds perform above the norm, while horses wearing headgear have a poor record.





3.25 John Smith’s Handicap Chase 3m 1f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Class: 9 of the last 10 winnershad raced in Graded company in their careers.
Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least one of their last six starts.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has won the race 3 times (4 if you go back an extra year); Nicky Henderson has won the race twice.
Running style: Hold up horses have done well in this race with 6 wins from the last 10 renewals.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Course winners: Course winners are 0 from 25 with just 3 placed.
Career starts: Horses that had raced 25 times or more in their careers have provided just 1 win from 47 (LOSS of £41.50; ROI -88.3%).
LTO run: Horses that failed to finish on their previous start have provided 0 winners from 31.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a small loss.
Finishing positions of favourites: P, 1, 3, 5, 2, 4/P, 1, F, PU, 4
Course LTO: 6 of the 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO from 60 runners (SR 10%); horses that did not race at the festival have provided 4 winners from 93 (SR 4.3%).

Trends Summary: Not the strongest races of the meeting as far as trends are concerned. It is best to focus on horses that have won at least once in their last six runs, and have run in Graded company at some point in their careers. Any horses trained by Jonjo O’Neill needs close scrutiny, while Nicky Henderson has a decent record also. In terms of negatives, avoid horses that have 25 times or more in their careers and/or any horse that failed to finish LTO. Finally, horses that ran at the Cheltenham festival have a much better chance of winning than those that did not.





4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced 20/1 or shorter. Hence 70% of the winners have come from 29% of the runners.
Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further – this stat holds true right back to 1970.
Age: 9 and 10yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners (70%) from just under 50% of the runners.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.
Breeding: 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 96 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from 30 and none have finished in the first four – indeed 23 have failed to complete the course). 13yo and older runners are rare but all 10 have been soundly beaten.
Price 40/1+: 1 win from 188 qualifiers.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 55, with 3 further finishing placed (LOSS of £47.00; ROI -85.5%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 20.
Finishing positions of favourites: F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R, 1/6, 7, 1/4
Trainers: 4 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland.

Trends Summary: Mon Mome was a shock 100/1 winner two years ago but overall big priced runners should be ignored. One stat that goes back to 1970 is concerned with the fact that all winners had won over 3 miles or further in their careers. Irish trainers deserve respect also as they have provided 40% of the winners from less than 20% of the total runners. In terms of weight, horses carrying bigger weights (11st 2lb or more) have a poor record although Don’t Push It bucked the trend last year carrying 11st 5lb to victory. In terms of age it looks best to avoid horses aged 8 or younger.





4.55 John Smith’s Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 2m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 20/1.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 10st 10lb or less.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 0 wins from 10.
Market: The top three in the betting have provided 0 winners.
Official ratings: Horses with an OR of 133 or more have provided 1 winner from 43 (LOSS of £31.00; ROI -72.1%).
Weights: The top seven in the weights have provided only 2 winners from 74.
Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 22 runners but 0 winners (only 3 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 15, F, 2, 13, 15, 8, PU, 18, 8
Age: 6 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (16 out of the last 20 going back a further 10 years). However, they do make up a fair proportion of the total runners.

Trends Summary: On the face of it there seem to be limited trends, but horses carrying 10st 10lb or less that are priced between 7/1 and 20/1 is a starting point at least.





5.30 Champion Standard National Hunt Flat Race 2m 1f

The race was not run in 2007 so I have gone back an extra year.

POSITIVE TRENDS

Season’s form: 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least once that season.
Market: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced 25/1 or bigger.
Age: 6yos have a decent record with 5 wins from 38 (PROFIT of £104.25; ROI +274.3%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Horses from the top 8 of the betting have won just 3 of the 10 races.
Age: Horses aged 4 have provided just 1 winner from 59 (LOSS £44.00; ROI -74.6%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins, 3 placed from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 8, 1, 1, 14, 3, 4, 4, 3/20, 2, 19

Trends Summary: With the last 5 of the last 7 winners having been priced 25/1 or bigger this is not an easy finale. 6yos have a good record having won 50% of the races from 19% of the total runners. So a big priced 6yo is probably the value call.

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10 Year Trends For Three Big Races On Saturday

Here are 10 year trends for three big races on Saturday.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 10 renewals. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment, SR for strike rate.
1.50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Chase – 3m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10.
Market: There were 3 winning second favourites, so 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 2 in the market.
Price: Horses priced 9/2  or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners.
LTO winners: 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out. Backing all 22 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £7.05 (ROI +32%).
LTO market position: 8 of the last 10 winners were either favourite or second favourite LTO.
Career starts: Horses with 11 career starts or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. Horses who have raced 3 times or less over fences (previous to this race) have won 8 of the last 10.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 5/1 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 29 qualifiers for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -67.2%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd or worse last time out have produced just 1 winner from 30 for a loss of £26.00 (ROI -86.7%).
GENERAL STATS
Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds

have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced
5 winners from 19 qualifiers (SR 26.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 0 winners
from 18 qualifiers (SR 0%).
Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some strong positive pointers. 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 9/2 or shorter so this is a definite starting point, with favourites given the closest scrutiny as they have won half of the races. LTO winners have an excellent record and look for horses that have had no more than 3 runs over fences as they have won 80% of the races from 55% of the total runners. In terms of age it looks best to focus on those horses aged 7 or younger.

2.45 Haydock – Totescoop6 (Rendlesham) Hurdle– 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites  from 10 qualifiers showing a

profit of £1.48 (ROI +14.8%).
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
Favourites LTO: There have only been 6 horses that started favourite LTO but 4 of them have gone on to win this race.
Class LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest LTO.
Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Haydock.
Breeding: French breds have won 6 of the races from just 20 runners although profits have been modest at £2.48 (ROI +12.2%).
Trainers: Francois Doumen has won the race 3 times since 2002.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Breeding: Just 2 wins from 23 for British bred runners showing losses of £12.00 (ROI -52.2%).
GENERAL STATS
Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 6 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 8 year olds have won 1 from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 9 year olds plus have won 3 from 21 qualifiers (SR 14.3%).
Trends analysis: this is a race where the positive trends tend to dominate. The market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. A decent run LTO has been a plus, as has racing in Grade 1 or 2 company LTO.  French breds have a good record as does trainer Francois Doumen. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

3.00 Ascot – Betfair Chase – 2m 5½f

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 for a profit of £1.54 (ROI +15.4%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter.
Last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks.
Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton.
Trainers: the Pipe stable won the race four times between 2002 and 2006. No successes however, since David Pipe has taken over from his father.
LTO performance: 8 horses came into the race having failed to complete the course LTO, but 3 have gone onto win.
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 3 miles or more LTO have won 5 of the renewals from just 21 runners for a profit of £5.16 (ROI +24.6%).
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 23.
LTO Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger on their most recent run have provided 0 winners from 24.
GENERAL STATS
Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year

olds have produced 6 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 35.3%); 9 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 10  year olds have produced
1 winner from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%); 11 year olds plus have produced 2 winners
from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%).
Trends analysis: this has been a market driven race in recent years thanks to 5 winning favourites and 9 winners priced 15/2 or shorter. A recent run is not necessarily a plus as 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks. A LTO run at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton has been a positive, while in terms of age 8 year olds have performed way above expectations.

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Cheltenham Racing Advice

A small snippet from todays message from the excellent www.RacingTrends.co.uk

3.35 Cheltenham – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market position: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top four in the betting.
LTO course: 6 of the last 10 winners raced at either Cheltenham or Haydock last time out.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
Beaten favourites: 13 beaten favourites have contested this race and 6 have won. Backing all runners would have produced a huge profit of £39.73 (ROI +305.6%).
Course form: 6 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham.
Sex: Mares / fillies have had just 2 runners but both won!
Career wins: Horses with 6 or more career wins have provided 6 of the winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 3 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 and backing all selections would have produced a loss of £4.90 (ROI -44.5%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worst LTO have provided just 2 winners from 32 for a loss of £15.00 (ROI -46.9%).
Headgear: Horses wearing headgear have managed just 1 win from 20.
Price: All 28 horses priced 20/1 or bigger have been beaten. Only two of them have been placed (both 3rd).

GENERAL STATS

Trainers: Two wins apiece for Alan King and Howard Johnson.
Age: 5 year olds have provided 3 wins from 11 qualifiers (SR 27.3%); 6 year olds have provided 1 win from 18 qualifiers (SR 5.6%); 7 year olds have provided 1 win from 17 qualifiers (SR 5.9%); 8 year olds have provided 1 win from 13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%); 9 year olds have provided 4 wins from 14 qualifiers (SR 28.6%); 10 year olds or older have provided 0 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: favourites have struggled in recent years with just 1 win in the last 6 seasons. However, in general is a decent guide with 8 of the last 10 winners coming from the top four of the betting. Horses that raced at Cheltenham or Haydock last time out have done well as have beaten favourites. It also pays to look for a decent run LTO and a horse that has numerous career wins to his/her name. Female runners are rare but the 2 runners have both won. In terms of age, horses aged 10 or older have struggled (only 1 placed effort from 15 runners).

Newmarket Betting Statistics

Dave Renham has kindly provided some stats to help with a couple of races at Newmarket today.

Find out more about Dave at his own site. Click Here ==> Horse Betting Advice

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The trends and statistics are based on the last 20 years to 1990.

All profits and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return
on investment;

LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

Newmarket 2.30 Cheveley Park Stakes – 6f (Group 1) 2yo fillies
POSITIVE TRENDS
Market: Second and third favourites (inc. Joints) have produced
9 wins from 43 qualifiers showing a profit of £14.50 (ROI +33.7%).
Market: The top 3 in the betting have provided 16 of the last
20 winners.
LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have produced 13
of the 20 winners (from 86 qualifiers) showing a profit of £24.72 (ROI
+29.1%).
Trainers: In form trainers are worth noting. Trainers whose
last winner came within his/her last seven runners have accounted for
17 of the 20 winners. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit
of £23.31 (ROI +18.7%).
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 80.
Position LTO: Horses finishing third or worse last time out
have produced just 1 winner from 62 qualifiers for a loss of £47.00
(ROI –75.8%).
Career starts:Horses having five or more previous runs have
produced 3 winners from 56 qualifiers for a loss of £43.50 (ROI -77.7%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten a length or more LTO have
provided just 2 winners from 73 for a loss of £54.00 (ROI -74%).
Trainers: Trainers who have failed to register a win with
any of their last 12 runners (all flat races) have produced just 2 winners
from 38 qualifiers for a loss of £31.59 (ROI -83.1%).
Trainers: Just 1 win from 24 for Irish trained horses (the
last 23 since 1997 have all lost).
GENERAL STATS
Favourites (inc. joints): 7 wins from 21 for a profit of £1.22
(ROI +5.8%).
Favourites LTO: Horses that were favourite on their most recent
start have produced 8 winners from 64 qualifiers but they produced a
big loss of £33.82 (ROI -52.8%). Indeed all 25 LTO favourites that were
beaten in that race have come on to lose here as well.
Career Wins: 13 of the last 20 winners had previously won
twice or more. They have provided 65% of the winners from around 50%
of the total runners.

Trends analysis: An interesting set of statistics in a race that has
been dominated by the top 3 in the betting.

Indeed the market tends to be a very strong guide with just one genuine
outsider (price 16/1+) from 80 qulaifiers managing to win. LTO winners should be noted, while horses
beaten a length or more LTO should be avoided as should beaten favourites. Trainers with a fairly
recent win are well worth noting in this race

Newmarket 3.05 – Middle Park – 6f (Group 1) 2yo colts / geldings

POSITIVE TRENDS
Market: 14 of the last 20 winners came from the top two in
the betting.
Price: 12 of the last 20 winners have been priced 7/2 or shorter.
Backing all 28 qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £4.15
(ROI +14.8%).
Position LTO: All of the last 20 winners finished in the first
three LTO.
Career wins: Horses that have won at least three times in
their career have produced 8 winners from 29 qualifiers. Backing all
qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £39.83 (ROI +137.3%).
LTO course: 5 of the last 9 winners raced at Ascot last time
out (from 9 runners).
Trainers: French and Irish trainers have saddled 6 winners
from 27 runners. Focusing solely on those that started first or second
in the betting the results improve to 6 wins from just 12 runners.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Just 2 wins from 70 runners for horses priced 10/1
or bigger.
Position LTO: Horses finishing fourth or worse last time out
have provided 0 winners from 27 qualifiers.
GENERAL STATS
Favourites:There have been 9 winning favourites from 20 for
a small profit of 32 pence!
Newmarket Trainers: Trainers from Newmarket dominated the
race in the mid to late 90s with wins in ’93, ’94, ’96, ’97 and ’98.
However, they have saddled just 1 winner since then from 27 runners.

Trends analysis: The market has dominated this race with the top two in the betting providing 70% of theIndeed the last 12 seasons has seen the winner priced in single figures.

All the winners finished in the first three LTO so ignore any horse
that did not.

Not many horses come into the race having won at least three times already, but note any runners that do.

Also note horses from France or Ireland that are well fancied (top
2 in the betting).

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics by Dave Renham

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Dave offers a useful free guide to horse racing.

To get yours click here ==> Horse Racing Course

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In this post I am looking at the Spring Mile, the Brocklesby and the Listed Cammidge sprint.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 15 renewals. All profits
and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on
investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.00 Doncaster -
Spring Mile – 1m class 2 (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
Second, third and fourth favourites have provided 6 winners and backing
all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £12.50 (ROI +25%).
Course LTO:

9 of the 15 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. They have provided
60% of the winners from only 33% of the total runners. Backing all such
runners would have produced a profit of £44.50 (ROI +40.5%).

Age:
4yos have won 10 of the last 15 renewals. (67% of winners from 44% of
the total runners).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites:
1 win from 15 for a loss of £7.00 (ROI -46.7%).
Price:
All runners priced 11/2 or shorter have been beaten (12 in total).
Price:
Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 122 qualifiers
for a loss of £88.00 (ROI -72.1%).
Distance LTO:
Horses that ran over 1m1f or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 78
qualifiers.
Class LTO:
67 horses raced in the same class or higher LTO and all have lost.
Course LTO:
Horses that ran on the all weather LTO have provided just 3 winners
from 155 runners for a loss of £108.00 (ROI -69.7%).
Age:
Horses 7yos and older have provided 0 winners from 55.

GENERAL STATS

Position LTO:
Horses that finished 10th or worse LTO have won 7 of the
races.
Sex of horse:
Female runners have a fair record with 3 wins from 31 for a profit of
£22.00 (ROI +71%).

Trends analysis:
In general I would look to use the negative trends first to help narrow
this big field down. Firstly ignore 7 year olds and older, then ignore
and horses dropping in trip. All 15 winners raced in a lower class LTO
and there should be preference for horses that ran at a Grade 1 track
LTO. Also LTO form does not really seem to matter as nearly half the
winners have won after finishing 10
th
or worse LTO.

2.35 Doncaster -
Cammidge Trophy – 6f Listed (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price:
7 of the last 15 winners have been priced between 6/1 and 11/1. Backing
all runners in this price bracket would have produced a profit of £14.50
(ROI +26.9%).
LTO class:
Horses that raced in Listed class LTO have provided 8 of the last 15
winners.
Days since last
run:
14 of the last 15 winners were having their first run of the
year in the UK.
Running style:
In recent years horses that have raced up with or close to the pace
have had a clear advantage providing 8 of the last 11 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

LTO class:
Horses that raced in class 3 company or lower LTO have provided 0 winners
from 25 runners.
LTO race type:
Horses that raced in an all age handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 65 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -76.9%).
LTO course:

Horses that raced on the all weather LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 33 for a loss of £24.50 (ROI -74.2%).

Headgear:
Horses wearing blinkers / visors have provided 0 winners from 24.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc.
joints):
4 wins from 17 for a loss of £2.75 (ROI -16.2%).
Age:
3yos have won 1 race from 9 (SR 11.1%); 4yos have won 4 races from 59
(SR 6.8%); 5yos have won 4 races from 31 (SR 12.9%); 6yos have won 3
races from 28 (SR 10.7%); 7yos have won 2 races from 23 (SR 8.7%); 8yos+
have won 1 from 26 (SR 3.8%).
Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 13 races from 143 (SR 9.1%); female runners have
won 2 races from 33 (SR 6.1%).

Trends analysis:
This is a race that traditionally favours seasonal debutants rather
than horses that have raced recently on the all weather. The best value
has been in the 6/1 to 11/1 price bracket. Prominent racers have a good
recent record, while horses that raced in Listed class LTO have been
the most successful. Avoid horses that raced in an all age handicap
LTO and/or and any horse wearing blinkers or a visor. Also horses that
raced in class 3 or lower LTO look best ignored.

3.40 Doncaster -
Brocklesby – 5f conditions (2yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 6 in the betting. (15.4
runners per race is the 15-year average).
Price:
14 of the last 15 winners have been priced 14/1 or lower.
Draw:
In big fields high draws have had the advantage in recent years with
four of the seven 17 runner plus races since 1998 going to one of the
top three stalls. Indeed, 2 years ago the first five runners home were
drawn 19, 14, 13, 18 and 20 (19 ran; 2 non runners). Last year the first
six horses home in a 19 runners race were drawn 11 or higher.
Running style:
The last 15 winners have raced close to or up with the pace.
Trainers:
Bill Turner has saddled 4 winners and 4 placed horses from 15.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc.
joints):
2 wins from 20 for a loss of £10.25 (ROI -51.3%).
Market position:
Horses 10th or bigger in the betting market have provided
1 win from 89 runners for a loss of £63.00 (ROI -70.8%).
Price:
Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 110 runners
for a loss of £84.00 (ROI -76.4%).
Training centre:
Newmarket trainers have provided just 1 winners from 23 for a loss of
£19.75 (ROI -85.9%).

GENERAL STATS

Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 12 races from 170 (SR 4.9%); female runners have
won 3 races from 61 (SR 4.9%).
Foaling date:
January and February foals have won 5 races from 79 (SR 6.3%); March
foals have won 6 races from 70 (SR 8.6%); April and May foals have won
4 from 82 (SR 4.9%).

Trends analysis:
With this being such an early 2yo race one would expect trends to be
thin on the ground, but there are several useful pointers to this contest.
Traditionally it is best to focus on horses priced 14/1 or shorter,
although it should be noted that favourites have struggled. Racing close
to the pace has been vital and this has become more important as the
fields have increased, so ‘in running’ players take note! A trainer
to note is Bill Turner whose record is very impressive. Finally, in
big fields a high draw has been an advantage.

Wokingham Stakes

The big horse race of the day is the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot

Below are some helpful facts and figures from Dave Renham at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

4.20 Ascot Wokingham Stakes (6f – handicap) 3yo+

N.B there was a dead heat in 2003 so we have 21 winners to consider.

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 14 of the last 21 winners were priced between 10/1 and 20/1.
Position LTO: 16 of the last 21 winners finished in the first 4 LTO.
Distance LTO: Horses dropping down a furlong from running over 7f LTO have a good record with 8 wins from 85 qualifiers for a profit of 76 pts (ROI +89.4%).
Career wins:18 of the last 21 winners had won at least three times in their careers.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Second favourites (inc. joints): 0 from 30.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worse LTO have provided 5 winners from 300 runners for a loss of 190 pts (ROI -63.3%).
Distance LTO: Horses stepping up from 5f LTO have a very poor record with just 1 win from 130 runners.
Last 6 runs: Horses that have failed to finish 1st or 2nd in at least one of their last six runs have provided 0 winners from 112.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 2 wins from 20 for a loss of 5 pts (ROI -25%).
Age: 3yos have won 0 races from 34 runners (SR 0%); 4yos have won 9 from 205 runners (SR 4.4%); 5yos have won 7 from 140 runners (SR 5%); 6yos have won 4 from 99 runners (SR 4%); 7yos+ have won 1 from 99 (SR 1%).
Trends Summary: One of the top handicap sprints of the year and with an average of around 27 runners it is not easy! Horses priced between 10/1 and 20/1 seem to offer the best value, assuming they have finished in the first four LTO. It is best to ignore horses that raced over 5f LTO, have not finished in the first two on at least one of their last six starts, and horses aged 7 or older. Using those five stats mentioned above would have found the winner in 60% of the races from only 18% of all runners. One final positive trend worth noting is the good record of horses dropping down from 7f LTO.

Dave Renham

To visit Dave’s Site click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics

Saturday Racing Analysis

Saturday Racing Analysis from Dave Renham of RacingTrends

To Visit Dave’s site Click Here ===> Horse Racing Statistics

Two big races today where I have taken a 20 year trends approach in an attempt to create some shortlists.

3.10 Newmarket – 2000 Guineas – 1m Group 1 (3yo)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 12 of the last 20 winners came from second to fourth in the betting. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £24.00 (ROI +36.4%).

Last time out winners: 17 of the last 20 winners won LTO.

Price: 16 of the last 20 winners have been priced between 3/1 and 11/1. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £37.00 (ROI +41.6%).

Seasonal debut: 14 of the last 20 winners were making their seasonal debut.

Draw: In big fields (18+ runners) all winners have been drawn middle to high. The lowest winning stall position in such races has been 12.

Trainers: Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times since 1998. Sir Michael Stoute has been successful 3 times in 1997, 2000 and 2001.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market position: Horses 7th or bigger in the betting market have provided 2 winners from 215 runners for a loss of £172.00 (ROI -80%).

Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 148 runners.

Career starts: Horses that raced 8 times or more in their career have provided 0 winners from 44.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 3 wins from 20 for a loss of £11.67 (ROI -58.4%).

Course winners: Course winners have won 7 races from 97 (SR 7.2%); non course winners have won 13 races from 245 (SR 5.3%).

Trends analysis: Essentially this has been a market driven race although favourites have a poor record. Horses 2nd to 4th in the betting have proved the most successful and indeed profitable. Last time out winners not surprisingly have a good record, while horses making their seasonal debut are around 5 times more likely to win than horses that have already run this year (wins to runs ratio). Big priced outsiders (33/1 or bigger) have not scored in the last 20 years. Finally, runners from the stable of Aidan O’Brien clearly demand the upmost respect.

Conclusion – no horse perfectly matching the trends so we have to find horses that match the trends the best. Both Aidan O’Brien’s horses did not win LTO (which is a negative) and of the pair Mastercraftsman looks the right portion of the betting. Arguably the best fit is Evasive – currently 10/1 4th favourite. So from a trends perspective Evasive and Mastercraftsman look the rip. Rip Van Winkle if deposed as favourite (which is possible) then that would make up the trends trio.

3.45 Newmarket – Palace House Stakes – 5f Group 3 (3yo+)
POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 15 of the last 20 winners were single figure prices.

Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 9 winners. That equates to 45% of the races from which they have provided just 20% of the total runners.

Market position LTO: 12 of the last 20 winners were favourite or 2nd favourite LTO.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price LTO: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger on their previous start have provided just 1 winner from 47 for a loss of £30.00 (ROI -63.8%).

Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 4 or more lengths LTO have provided just 3 winners from 101 runners for a loss of £59.00 (ROI -58.4%).

Class LTO: Horses that raced in Group company LTO have provided just 3 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £37.50 (ROI -65.8%). However, they have provided 2 of the last 4 winners.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 8 wins from 23 for a profit of 34 pence!

Age: 3yos have won 5 races from 60 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 4yos have won 7 races from 76 qualifiers (SR 9.2%); 5yos have won 5 races from 44 qualifiers (SR 11.4%); 6yos have won 2 races from 38 qualifiers (SR 5.3%); 7yos+ have won 1 race from 42 qualifiers (SR 2.4%).

Sex of horse: Male runners have won 16 races from 199 runners (SR 8%); female runners have won 4 races from 61 (SR 6.6%).

Trends analysis: Horses priced in single figures is a potential starting point, while, it looks best to ignore horses that were beaten by 4 or more lengths LTO and those that were priced 16/1 or bigger on their most recent start. Combining this one positive and two negative stats your shortlist would have found the winner in 70% of the races from just 27% of the total runners. Another negative worth using when eliminating runners is horses aged 7 or more.

Conclusion – Chief Editor, Borderlescott and Amour Propre are the obvious three for the trends pick.

Best Wishes

Dave Renham

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Grand National Statistics

Grand National Statistics provided by RacingTrends.co.uk

4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top 8 in the betting. Hence 70% of the winners have come from 22% of the runners.
Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further – this stat holds true right back to 1970.
Age: 9 and 10yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners from under 50% of the runners.
Weight: All of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.
Trainers: 5 of the last 9 winners were trained in Ireland.
Running style: 6 of the last 10 winners raced prominently from the start, and 9 were prominent starting their second circuit.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 91 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from 29 and none have finished in the first four). 13yo and older runners are rare but all 13 have been soundly beaten.
Price 40/1+: 0 wins from 195 qualifiers.
Weight: The top 5 in the weights (inc. joints) have won 0 races from 52.
Breeding: All 98 French bred horses have been beaten.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 62, with 2 further finishing placed (LOSS of £54.00; ROI -87.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 19 for a loss of £3.00.
Finishing positions of favourites: F, U, F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R, 1/6

Trends Summary: Although the Grand National has a large number of runners, several can be eliminated from calculations from a trends/stats perspective. Firstly ignore horses 7 or younger and those 13 or older, horses priced 40/1 or bigger, French breds, the top 5 of the weights, horses carrying over 11st 1lb and horses wearing headgear. Using this method would have left you with around 25% of the runners and all the winners would have been in this group. Essentially you should be able to narrow down a 40 strong field to a shortlist of around 10 or 11 runners. This makes selecting the winner somewhat easier! Irish trainers deserve maximum respect also as they have provided 50% of the winners from 17% of the total runners.