Grand National Racing Tip

Our regular free tip from Guy

What else would expect today .. its his Grand National Racing Tip

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We got a small win last Saturday for you with Vintage Star

grabbing a place at 20/1 early advised price.

Today is of course Grand National Day.

It’s that annoying day when Friends and Family all hassle me to give

them a good Grand National Tip.

Can’t they pick an easier race with less runners?

Here are my thoughts however.

It is not a race I will be staking with serious cash personally.

More so following the house wives out there with a small interest bet.

John Smith’s Grand National Chase

(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+) 4m4f

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-14/aintree/16-15/betting/

The Grand National changes every year as do the statistics bit by bit to

accomodate the recent history. This year the Fences are again different.

Some are slightly lower and landings raised in places as it slowly

becomes an easier race. That doesnt help us as the more testing

and unique the race the better stats work.

* I think we should mainly ignore the weight statistics

* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs

* Horses with 11st 6lbs have struggled overall

* Only Red Rum had won with more weight in recent years

* I would not get too hung up with weight though

* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st

* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs

* L’Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs

* Horses with 11st 5lbs or more won in 1965 1957 1954 1950

* I wont be ruling any horse out only on their weight

* It is a well known fact 7 year olds do badly

* It is now 72 years since one won and they are hard to bet

* ORGANISEDCONFUSION has to go as a 7 year old

* He is not 7 year as he doesnt become 7 until next month

* With just 3 runs this year it defies sense to bet him

* I am opposing these other 7 year olds

* VIKING BLOND – OUR ISLAND – THARAWAAT

* On the other end of the scale avoid teenagers

* HELLO BUD is surely too old as a 14yo

* Horses aged 8 do not do as well as many think

* Only 3 of the last 36 winners were 8 year olds

* Only 1 of the last 18 winners were 8 year olds

* If betting an 8yo make sure it is at least an 8yo

* If Foaled after the day of this race they are not

* Those foaled in Mid april and beyond are not yet 8

* Bindaree – Party Politics – Corbiere -the last 8yo winners

* They were all foaled early in the year

* They were all aged 8 and a few months

* Red Rum also won aged 8 and he was a January Foal

* Horses foaled after the day of the race are not 8

* They are just 7 and a few months old

* ON HIS OWN wasnt foaled until mid July

* That makes him only 7 and three quarters

* He is 6 months younger than most 8yo winners were

* He also has less Chasing experience than any winner

* QUISCOVER FONTAINE is 2 months short of being 8

* SHAKALAAAAKABOOMBOOM is a May 28th foal

* He wont be an 8yo for another 6 weeks

* He is short on Chasing experience and runs this year

* ALFA BEAT is not quite 8 years old yet

* TATENEN is one week short of his 8th birthday

* SMOKING ACES is also short of his 8th birthday

* Exposed horses struggle with few runs that season

* By exposed I mean those with 21 + National Hunt runs

* Those with 1-2-3 runs that season struggled

* They do in all Long distance Handicap Chases in April

* They have a dreadful record in all similar races

* Grey Abbey (Ayr 2004) had 36 runs and 3 that year

* Ballabriggs (Aintree 2011) had 21 runs and 3 that year

* I cant find any more exposed horses so underraced

* The more runs a horse has over 21

* The more runs he needs that season

* Be prepare to be lenient if a horse is close to passing it

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season

* 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6

* You can see None have won with 0-1-2 runs that year

* It is 4m 4f and these types just dont seem fit enough

* I would be keen to opposed all horses with 1-2 runs

* STATE OF PLAY is 12 and hasnt run in 371 days

* He heads my list of horses that are underraced this year

* BALLABRIGGS only has 1 run this season

* With 11st 9lbs it looks a horrendous ordeal for him

* BLACK APALACHI is 13 and has just 1 run this year

* Only 2 Teenagers have won and none since 1923

* None have placed since 1969 and he surely wont win

* DEEP PURPLE has one full race and half a race

* He has under 2 runs this year when an exposed 11yo

* I see him a extremely underraced this season

* JUNIOR has ran just twice this season not a good sign

* He has had fewer chase starts than all past winners

* I see him underraced this year and unsafe

* He started racing on the Flat and few National winners do

* His Sire hasnt bred a winner beyond 3m 2f yet

* PLANET OF SOUND has just 2 runs this season

* He is an exposed 10yo and I would want more runs

* WEST END ROCKER – He has only had 2 runs this year

* One of those was when he pulled up

* ARBOR SUPREME has similar problems

* Just 2 runs this year and a massive absence

* He has a longer absence than any winner in decades

* ON HIS OWN discussed earlier is also underraced

* IN COMPLIANCE is underraced this season

* MIDNIGHT HAZE is also underraced

* It is very important to have a recent race

* The past 20 winners all ran within 7 weeks

* In fact every winner since 1981 ran within 50 days

* The last that did not was Aldaniti back in 1981

* I don’t want a horse absent much more than 60 days

* The last 21 winners were absent this many days

* 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25

* 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25

* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups

* Horses 2nd in the National had these absence

* 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23

* 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102

* 17 of the past 21 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks

* I think STATE OF PLAY is absent too long

* WEST END ROCKER – ARBOR SUPREME are as well

* The following are absent longer than ideal

* CALGARY BAY has been absent 77 days

* CALGARY BAY doesnt appeal much

* Not keen on his Track form either

* ON HIS OWN has been absent 79 days

* ANY CURRENCY has been absent 77 days

* Class is important in a National Winner

* 10 of the last 11 winners won in Listed Grade or higher

* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)

* He won in Class 2 races but hadnt been tested in higher

* I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winer

* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival

* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight

* That was more than worthy or a Listed or Graded win

* 20 of the last 21 winners raced in Graded Class before

* The exception was again Ballabriggs (2011)

* The vast majority of the seconds also had Graded Form

* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced

* Exposed horses should really have past Graded Form

* Ballabriggs wouldnt have been exposed with just 1 less run

* One past race he didnt jump past the first fence

* He had really only had 20 career starts

* I would much prefer a horse with Graded Class form

* I’d argue the following horses lack the required class

* POSTMASTER – MIDNIGHT HAZE – SMOKIN ACES

* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance

* The previous 21 winners had the following Chase runs

* 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14

* 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14

* Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994

* He had 9 Chase runs and two more had 10 Chase starts

* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winner

* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups

* 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20

* 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8

* I’d be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts

* 8 of the last 11 winners had just 10-15 previous Chase starts

* I’d argue the following horses lack the right chase form

* CAPPA BLUE only has 6 Chase runs and fell in one of those

* That’s at least 3 less than every past winner

* JUNIOR has fewer chase starts than any recent winner

* SYNCHRONISED would be the joint least experienced chaser

* SHAKALAAAAKABOOMBOOM also has the minimum

* PEARLYSTEPS would be the joint least experienced chaser

* QUISCOVER FONTAINE only has 7 Chase starts

* OUR ISLAND only has 7 Chase starts

* VIKING BLOND only has 5 Chase runs

* The following horses look to be too risky

* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – Lacks the class and stamina

* ABBEYBRANEY looks out of his depth

* VIC VENTURI wont defy 62 days off as a 12yo

* SWING BILL wont get the trip

* MON MOME – I find it so hard to fancy him

* He is 12 and hasnt shown nearly enough this year

* WEIRD AL – If he ran his race he’d go close

* He surely is not man enough for this race

* SEABASS has a very unorthodox profile

* I hate the fact he comes from a 2m Chase

* Stamina must be a problem for him as well

* He hasnt won over 3m before under rules

* His Sire hasnt had a winner beyond 3m 4f yet

* His sires record in Class 2 and higher is telling

* He hasnt had a winner in that class beyond 3m 2f

* Ruby Walsh has also turned the ride down

* SEABASS does not look safe enough

* TREACLE is an exposed 11yo

* Two of the last 19 winners could say the same

* Passes most angles he has to be considered

* What worries me most is his 146 handicap mark

* Seems harsh for a horse thats won only off 122 before

* Not overkeen on his 62 day absence either

* Thats longer than any winner since 1991

* Not sure he has the class to defy that absence and rating

* There were 5 winners coming from Cheltenham

* Miinnehoma 1994 came from the Gold Cup

* Rough Quest 1996 came from the Gold Cup

* Bindaree 2002 came from the Trophy Handicap (6th)

* Silver Birch 2007 came from the Cross Country race

* Don’t Push it 2010 came from the Pertemps H’Cap Hurdle

* No winners came from Cheltenham Aged 9

* SUNNYHILLBOY – Not convinced he is the right type

* We know no 9yo came from Cheltenham and won this

* No Cheltenham Festival winners have won here in decades

* None have got within 28 lengths of the winner

* SUNNYHILLBOY is also a small horse not ideal here

* Do we really want a Cheltenham festival winner ?

* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE ran at Cheltenham

* He ran well and was a good 2nd in the Kim Muir

* No 9 year olds won coming from Cheltenham

* It worries me has had won just 1 Chase race

* That was in a Beginners Chase back in 2010

* The last 19 winners had 3-7 Chase wins before

* He fell at the second fence in last years race

* He has now fallen in 3 of his 11 Chase races

* The last 12 winners all had a better completion record

* He hasnt won at 3 Miles yet but that doesnt worry me

* Overall I feel he has too many weaknesses

* NEPTUNE COLLONGES is an exposed 11yo

* I’d like a couple more runs this year

* I wasnt convinced he would get the trip either

* Not sure he has the legs especially with 11st 6lbs

* RARE BOB – Has a good old fashioned profile

* I wouldnt fault him at all statistically

* His jumping here would be one concern

* The only time he fell before was at Aintree

* His only other race here was not without mistakes

* He will be vulnerable to improvers as well

* His profile demands he is respected

* My concerns is he may be too old fashioned

* Horses like him dont seem to win the race these days

* There must also be a stamina doubt

* The furthest he has raced has been 3m 5f

* After that race his trainer said he didnt stay

* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB was favourite last year

* He had an awful profile so did well to finish 6th

* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB is 11 years old

* He was brought down at the 4th on his seasonal debut

* He has really only had 3 full runs this season

* Thats a bit short for an 11yo and it worries me

* He fails a few minor statistics I have

* The last 19 winners all had more Chase wins than him

* They also all had more Handicap Chase experience too

* I Could turn a blind eye to those statistics

* He has won 5 times under rules all on right handed tracks

* Fair to say his hardest races were on left handed tracks

* Its another niggling doubt though

* Interesting runner and if he wins it is explainable

* I’d have prefered another run this year and more promise

* SYNCHRONISED has just won the Gold Cup

* This will take a better performance should he win

* His last run may have taken too much from him

* Horses aged 9 like him coming from Cheltenham struggled

* He has to carry a big weight with only 9 Chase starts

* If winning he would be the joint least experienced chaser

* SYNCHRONISED – I suspect he has too much against him

* I certainly wouldnt make him a negative

* The weight in the ground after a hard race is a worry

* There is a big case for him being a Saver in my view

* GILES CROSS – I see him as an overall positive

* The ground has come right and he looks an improver

* There are a few reservations I have about him

* I would like another run or two this year

* I wouldnt be certain he would get the trip either

* The last half mile could be quite a test for him

* Will he cope with the stamina doubt and 3 runs this year

* Those 3 runs were all hard races as well

* No surprise if he won but I am not sold on him

* CAPPA BLUE – has some minor issues but one serious flaw

* The least experienced chaser had ran in 9 previous chases

* CAPPA BLUE has just 6 and Fell -Pulled up in 2 of those

* That said Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts

* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts

* CAPPA BLUE has to be considered because of that

* CHICAGO GREY – Plenty of positives in his profile

* Well raced this year and ticks a lot of boxes

* I dont like the fact he comes from a 2m 4f Chase

* The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is not good

* I dont like the fact he comes from a Grade 2 Chase either

* Other than that there is a lot to like

* His trainer has a National Pedigree

* CHICAGO GREY also looks laid out for the race

* He certainly has the class and he is a big positive

* Reservations though in a number of areas

* He is lacking the Handicap Chase experience too

* KILLYGLEN – Has a good old fashioned profile

* I wouldnt fault him at all statistically

* Maybe the type that used to win this race but no more

* It bothers me has finished in only 9 of his 14 chase starts

* It bothers me his form at 3m 3f and more is PU PU PU

* It bothers me he was 66/1 in last years race

* He hasnt always been happy in a big field as well

* Bothers me he hasnt won a handicap chase before

* All that aisde he sails through my angles

* Many trends observers have also come round to him

* Shortlisted but I have listed plenty of shortcomings

* ACCORDING TO PETE is an exposed 11yo

* Well raced this year there is a lot to like

* He is consistent and not badly treated at all

* He has never fallen in 14 Chase starts

* There are some problems. May like it softer

* He is not a big horse either and I dont like that

* He jumps well though and I see a strong runner here

* ALWAYS RIGHT has 11 runs all over fences

* This is quite a classy horse with tons of ability

* Obviously his PU PU form recent isnt easy on the eye

* He has had a wind operation to cure a problem causing it

* That may or may not work but the price compensates

* He is lightly raced yet has more than enough Chase runs

* That earns him a lot of respect

* At the prices he is one of the most interesting

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My Grand National Tips

From the above I have opted to cover a few horses to small stakes

I have assumed a £10 total stake

* CHICAGO GREY 25/1 £4 Win

* CAPPA BLEU £3 Win 18/1

* ALWAYS RIGHT £1.50 win 40/1

* ACCORDING TO PETE £1.50 win 40/1

* I am betting 4 horses in the race

* These are all win bets

* All advised at Betfair prices which of course may fluctuate a bit.

( if you want to bet on the nose in large runner field Betfair is normally
the best spot )

If you prefer to bet each way you can see live odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-14/aintree/16-15/betting/

It is worth noting different bookmakers paying out for different numbers of
places.

Victor Chandler are the pick as they pay out 6 places

Good luck whether you follow me or use your magic pin to pick your own

Best Wishes

Guy

PS In case you missed it we have a short term cheap deal on full membership
running.

Page will come down after the weekend.

See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/aintree-festival-racing-offer.asp

Grand National Racing Tip

I dealt with the Grand National last Sunday for full members and sent a long
preview with reasons why I felt CHARACTER BUILDING
had an outstanding chance and he is still my main selection.

He is about as fashionable as Drink Driving looking at all other opinions
but many recent winners were and if he can keep in contention for the
first circuit you never know and he still looks a very big price to
me at 33/1 so fingers crossed.

A copy of my analysis from last sunday is below.

AINTREE 4.15

John Smith´s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+) 4m4f

* The Grand National has 17 renewals since 1992
* There are also 75 Handicaps in Febuary-March-April
* Thats 75 Handicap Chases over 3m 7f or more
* Thats 75 Handicap Chases with at least 12 runners
* Thats 75 Handicap Chases in Class 2 or Higher Grade
* This includes the last 17 Grand nationals
* It includes the Scottish , Irish and Midlands Nationals

ABSENCES

* It is very important to have a recent race
* The past 20 winners all ran within 7 weeks
* The last 20 winners were absent this many days
23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25
* What is also significant is the absence of the Runner Ups
* Horses 2nd in the National had the following days absence
* 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
* 16 of the past 20 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks
* There are over 120 English horses absent 7 + weeks
* None of these have won and I would avoid long absences

* BACKSTAGE has been absent since last July
* CALGARY BAY has been absent 70 days
* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE has been absent 101 days
* STATE OF PLAY has been absent 304 days
* HELLO BUD has been absent 84 days
* Other horses that fail this include the following
* Majestic Concorde -  Or Noir De Somoza  – Dooneys Gate
* The Tother One- Nedzers Return – Grand Slam Hero
* Thats Rhythm – Frankie Figg – Our Monty – Starzaan
* Royal Rosa – Putney Bridge -  Imoncloudnine

HORSES AGED 7

* The last 7 year old winner of this race was back in 1940
* Horses aged 7 and unlikely to even complete the course
* QUINZ has to be eliminated aged 7
* QUINZ is not going to be 7 until May anyway
* He is no more than 6 years 11 months old
* I dont see how I can bet him given the record of 7yo’s
* Quolibet – Sagalyrique – Galant Nuit are out aged 7 as well

8 YEAR OLDS

* Only 2 of the last 26 winners were 8 year olds
* Horses aged 8 havent the best recent record
* If you bet an 8 year old make sure it is actually 8
* All recent 8yo winners were foaled early before the race
* Those foaled in Mid april and Beyond are not officially 8
* Bindaree – Party Politics – Corbiere are the last 8yo winners
* They were all foaled early the year they were born
* They were all aged 8 and a few months
* Red Rum also won aged 8 and he was a January Foal
* Horses foaled after the day of the race are not 8
* They are just 7 and a few months old
* WHAT A FRIEND is 8 and a May Foal
* He is technically still a 7 year old
* Other horses that fail this statistic are as follows
* Majestic Concorde – Our Monty – Belon Gale
* Junior – I’moncloudnine

HORSES AGED 13

* Horses aged 13 can also be opposed with confidence
* HELLO BUD fails that
* Especially when so lightly raced this season

PREPARATION (1)

* Exposed horses struggle with under 4 runs that season
* They have a 1-184 record in 75 Similar races
* The only winner was Grey Abbey – 2000 Scottish National
* I would demand at least 4 runs a year from exposed horses
* The Following Horses all fail this important statistic
* BALLABRIGS -  STATE OF PLAY -  HELLO BUD
* BACKSTAGE – CHIEF DAN GEORGE – SILVER BY NATURE
* NICHE MARKET – OSCAR TIME
* BLUESEA CRACKER – ARBOR SUPREME
* Other horses that fail this statistic are as follows
* Ballytrim -Faasel – Dev – Starzaan – Toby Jug
* Comply Or Die – Frankie Figg – Junior – Royal Rosa

PREPARATION (2)

* In the 75 similar races I looked at horses with 13 + runs
* These horses struggle badly with just 1-2 runs that season
* Whilst horses with 21 or more starts need 4 + runs that year
* Those with 13 or more runs need at least 3 + runs that year
* Those that did not have a 0-144 record
* Horses with 1-2 runs this season should be avoided
* The last 23 winners had the following runs that season
* 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6

* The Following Horses all fail this important statistic
* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB who is favourite for the race
* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE fancied as well
* Also failing this statistic are the following
* Our Monty – Majestic Concorde – Dooneys Gate
* Roll Along – Ornais – Surface To Air – Faasel
* Dev – Toby Jug- Gallant Nuit – Treacle

* Seasonal Debutants should be avoided
* BACKSTAGE hasnt run this year under rules
* Our Monty – Starzaan also have that against them

PREPARATION (3)

* Horses coming from a small field struggled
* Horses from races with under 9 runners were 0-104
* Not a strong statistic but worth bearing in mind
* BALLABRIGGS fails that
* THE TOTHER ONE also fails that
* Northern Alliance – Always Waining also fails that
* Skippers Brig

CLASS

* Class is very important in a National Winner
* The last 10 winners all won in at least Listed Grade before
* The last 20 winners had all ran in Graded Class Before
* The vasy majority of the runner ups also did this
* The only ones that did not were very lightly raced
* All exposed horses must have Graded Form
* In15 years no exposed horse won without Grade 1 form
* I would not want a horse without Graded Class form
* BALLABRIGGS fails that
* He’s now exposed and has no form in Listed or Graded races
* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE has no Graded Form
* Other horses that fail this statistic are as follows
* Dooneys Gate – Nezders Return – Surface To Air
* Our Monty -Belon Gale – Grand Slam Hero – Putney Bridge

WEIGHT

* I think we should ignore the weight statistics
* Last years winner won with 11st 5lbs
* Horses with 11st 6lbs have struggled overall
* Only Red Rum had won with more weight in recent years
* I would not get too hung up with weight though
* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st
* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs
* L’Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs
* Horses with 11st 5lbs or more won in 1965 1957 1954 1050
* The Precedents are there are last years winner showed that
* I wont be ruling any horse out on their weight

WINS THAT SEASON

* You dont want a horse with 2 or more wins that season
* Past Winners had the following number of wins that year
* 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 0
* Only 1997 winner Lord Gyliene won more than once that year
* BALLABRIGGS fails this statistic
* QUINZ fails that as well
* WEST END ROCKER fails that
* Other horses that fail this statistic are as follows
* Midnight Chase – King Fontaine – Golden Kite
* Skippers Brig – Putney Bridge – Sagalyrique

CHASING EXPERIENCE

* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
* The previous 20 winners had the following Chase runs
* 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
* Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
* He had 9 Chase runs and two more had 10 Chase starts
* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winner
* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
* 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
* I would be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts
* The following horses had under 10 Chase Starts
* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB is favourite with 8 Chase starts
* Thats only really 7 Chases as he had one early fall
* THE TOTHER ONE only has 9 Chase starts
* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE has only had 7 Chase starts
* QUINZ has only had 7 Chase starts
* Other horses with fewer Chase runs than ideal are:
* Synchronised – Majestic Concorde – Nezders Return
* King Fontaine – Ornais – Surface To Air -Our Monty
* Skippers Brig – Giles Cross – Starzaan-Gallant Nuit -Junior

JUMPING ABILITY

* You want a decent Jumper of course
* The last 11 winners had not fallen more than twice before
* I wouldnt rule a horse out on this statistic
* It is something to bear in Mind
* BIG FELLA THANKS fell or unseated in 3 of 15 chases
* SILVER BY NATURE has fallen in 3 of 14 chase starts
* NOTRE PERE has fallen 3 times before
* ARBOR SUPREME  has fallen 3 times before
* The following horses fail this as well
* Quolibet – Frankie Figg – The Sawyer – Pomme Tiepy

CURRENT FORM

* You want a horse that was 1-2-3 in at least one of the last 6 runs
* Horse that havent done that score badly in all similar races
* COMPLY OR DIE has not managed that in 6 runs
* ROLL ALONG also fails that

STEPPING UP IN DISTANCE

* The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is awful
* This is worse when its a Chase over 2m 4f or shorter
* No exposed horse won from a 2m 6f Chase or shorter
* The following horses have this to overcome
* BIG FELLA THANKS has to come from 2m 4f
* NICHE MARKET also comes up in distance
* Or Noir De Somoza – Dooneys Gate – Scotsirish
* Northern Alliance – In Compliance – Santa’s Son
* Askthemaster – Dev – Starzaan – Duers – Treacle

STAMINA

* Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m
* The following horses have this to overcome
* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE hasnt won at 3m yet
* The following also fail this statistic
* Or Noir De Somoza – Scotsirish -  Nezders Return
* Quolibet – In Compliance – Santa’s Son – Piraya
* Faasel – Putney Bridge -  Askthemaster -Dev
* Starzaan  – Duers

HANDICAP CHASE FORM

* Recent winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
*  5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
* Every recent winner has ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
* Horses running in 5-12 Handicap Chases did well
* They won 12 of the last 18 renewals
* I would like to see at least 4 previous Handicap Chase runs
* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB is favourite
* He has only ran in 2 Handicap Chases before
* WHAT A FRIEND has only ran in 1 handicap chase
* TIDAL BAY has raced in just 2 handicap chases
* OSCAR TIME has raced in just 3 handicap chases
* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE has just 1 handicap chase runs
* The following horses also fail this
* Synchronised – Majestic Concorde – Or Noir De Somoza
* Scotsirish – Quolibet – Roll Along – Ornais – Junior
* Our Monty – Surface To Air – Starzaan – Toby Jug

O T H E R   A N G L E S

* Number of Handicap Chases won
* Recent winners had won the following Handicap Chases
* 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
* No past winner had won more than 6 Handicap Chases

* The last 18 winners had between 3 and 7 Chase wins before
* They had  4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins

C O N C L U S I O N

Whilst he is progressive THE MIDNIGHT CLUB has plenty
to prove as favourite when lightly raced and having just two runs
this year and at the price I am against him especially as he has just
two runs in Handicap Chases losing both. Others I dislike at the head
of the market as I see their preparation as wrong include
WHAT A FRIEND – STATE OF PLAY – BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE -
NICHE MARKET – QUINZ – HELLO BUD – ARBOR SUPREME -
BALLABRIGGS.
I’m against MERIGO as he doesnt look about to win and there must be a big form and fitness question.

POSSIBLES

OSCAR TIME doesnt offer enough given his price as He is
failing one of the strong stats. BACKSTAGE is technically
wrong with an absence but there is a temptation to ignore
that as he is Irish and has been Point To Pointing and that counts for something.
There will be a serious stamina doubt with him but you can argue he comes
from the same sire as Mon Mome the 2009 winner. I shouldnt select him
but he’s one of those that could win and it wouldnt shock me.
I dont  agree with people who say BIG FELLA THANKS does not stay.
He has been 4th and 6th in the last 2 Nationals.
Once when Under 7 years old and again when under 8 years old  and in
Neither race was he remotely equipped to win this race failing several angles
and his two performances in the race were remarkable. I really dont like the
fact he comes from 2m 4f but he does have a chance in this race.
Given a weight of 11st 10lbs DONT PUSH IT is bound to fail a weight statistic
but thats all he does fail and having won this last season and having promised
myself not to worry about the weight too much I think he is shortlistable much
as he has a stiff mark and the last time he ran over fences was in this race last
year which I dont see as an advantage.

WEST END ROCKER has plenty on his side considering
he is a 50/1 chance but I prefer others. I think Mares are
quite interesting in this race but BLUESEA CRACKER is
exposed and only has 3 runs this season and that makes
her unlike any recent winners. SILVER BY NATURE is
a big danger. He has been very impressive and probably
underestimated by many but he isnt for me mainly down
to the likely ground and the fact he is short of runs this
season. I dont see VIC VENTURI winning with so much
weight at his age but he passes most of the better angles.
So to does KILLYGLEN much as he is complicated and
has only finished in 5 of his last 9 Chases a big worry. I
think TIDAL BAY has a good chance and I have backed
him as well. He has a great Aintree record and has never
fallen before. Throw in Bags of Class and 50/1 there are
worse bets and he could run very well for an old rogue.

PROVISIONAL SELECTION

CHARACTER BUILDING 33/1

Getting his profile out of the way first have a similar
type winning. In 2004 Amberleigh House won when
an exposed 11 year old with 5 runs that season. It’s
also interesting that Amberleigh House had his prep
run in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster and thats
where CHARACTER BUILDING last ran. There is
a similar profile there and enough to be confident in
CHARACTER BUILDING that he is the right type.

CHARACTER BUILDING came 7th in the 2010
race beaten 37 lengths. That does not worry me for
several reasons. He simply was not fit. He had won
at the 2009 Cheltenham Festival. He ran just twice
in the next 15 Months and by the 2010 National
he had only had 2 runs that season which is simply
not enough for a horse like him. He went there as
unfit and underprepared and out of form. There is
more to his run than meets the eye. He jumped all
the way round. This is a horse who has never fallen
in his life before and that counts for plenty. In last
years race he proved he handled the track. He was
mid division most of the way. Some will say that
he is unable to lay up close to the front but I have
to answer that by stating he was out of form last
year and underraced that season and he wasnt fit.

I watched the video of last years Grand National.
When DON’T PUSH IT jumped the penultimate
fence in front CHARACTER BUILDING was just
3 seconds behind him staying on overtaking quite
a few horses. He then faded but he was entitled to
as he was not fit and he blew up and came home in
7th place. In last years race he was a 16/1 chance.
This year He has a considerably better profile yet
is twice the price. This year he has 5 prep runs to
go to war with 3 more than last year. He also has
7lbs less weight this year which must help. He has
twice proven himself at this distance. He’s proved
he stays marathon trips before. He finished second
in the 4m National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in
1997 when having a poor profile and badly treated
at the weights. He should have placed in this race
last year had he been fit. I see enough stamina and
Class there. CHARACTER BUILDING’s trainer is
John Quinn who’s won with 3 of his last 5 runners
and has struck form this week which must help.

So many of this years rivals are underraced and do
not have enough runs this season. The previous 23
winners had these following runs that season

4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6

CHARACTER BUILDING fits that like a Glove as
he has 5 runs. We know all past winners had under
7 wins in Handicap Chases and he does that as well.
Its also very interesting the last 18 winners of this
had 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 chase wins
and CHARACTER BUILDING fits in well with 3.
I can not find a better option and he looks the one

33/1 and 5 places at Bet365 and stan james
VC offer 6 places but are currently 25/1

Guy Ward

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Guy Ward is one of the uk’s hardest working horse racing analysts.

Find out more about at service at this link Horse Racing Tips

Dutching On The Grand National

It is the day we have all been waiting for where 40 runners compete to win the John Smith Grand National at Aintree.

As always this race is a minefield when trying to find the winner and with 40 declared runners you could easily spend a whole day trying to analyse the race. We need to start by using trends in order to narrow down the field a bit to find runners which we want to look at more closely.

First of all I am going to star by removing any runner which has not won over 3 miles or longer before. No horse has bucked this trend since 1970 as stamina is a key ingredient in the race. This removes In Compliance, Majestic Concorde, Or Noir De Somoza, Piraya, Quolibet and Santa’s Son. That leaves us with 34 runners which we still need to trim down some what.

Next we are going to remove runners who have not won a Class 1 race, never run on Hurdles at Aintree and have fallen more than twice in their career when running Hurdles races on any course.

This leaves us with Tidal Bay, The Tother One, Royal Rosa, Quinz, Don’t Push It and Chief Dan George.  Six runners is much easier to deal with than 34. We are now going to take a look at these six. This doesn’t mean that these are our final six as we may bring some of the others back into the running later  but first we want to remove any runners we don’t like from these six.

Tidal Bay likes the going and race type and is a good performers. While he hasn’t been improving recently he also has not been in decline and he has every chance of taking home a position today if he runs to his best.

The Tother One is likely to find todays race just a bit too difficult. Without improving significantly there are other runners who are going to prefer the conditions.

Royal Rosa looks severely outclassed in this race. There has been no significant improvement over the last four races and being able to maintain the speed necessary over the distance and hurdles of this race is going to be unlikely.

While taking a class jump in this race, Quinz has been showing a steady improvement in his performances. He loves the going and race type but there is concern over him placing 16th at Aintree in his last race. He is well weighted today though and if he can continue to improve there may well be a place position for him.

There has been a lot of discussion about Don’t Push It with A P McCoy saddled on him. He certainly has the class to win this race and he is known to like the distance, stamina should be no problem. He has been declining in performance slightly over the last three races but he has certainly been warming up to this race. He won last year and based on trends this gives a warning bell as repeat successes are very rare, although not impossible. He is certainly one that needs to be considered in the betting but the odds on others are likely to be more attractive.

Chief Dan George has been in steady decline recently and his last good performance was against a significantly lower class affair. Aintree is not his favourite track and I think he may struggle in todays race.

From these runners we have Tidal Bay, Quinz and Don’t Push It as potential contenders. As we know the top eight in the market are strong runners and we are missing a number of them out and so we shall take a look at them now.

The Midnight Club has been going from strength to strength recently and certainly has the class to compete. Todays race type is a clear favourite for this runner the preference is for softer going though which may be a slight concern but there is definitely contender potential here.

Oscar Time has only ever won 1 hurdles race and that was in 2008 for an 8k purse. Of course he won the Cheltenham Cup just a few weeks ago and coming on to race here is a tough call. He finished 3rd next to The Midnight Club in the prep race at Fairyhouse though. The Grand National has been the sole aim of trainer M M Lynch this season and that suggests that he will go well although his early pace could prevent him from making the distance. Going well over three and a half miles indicates good things but the extra mile is a long distance. Certainly a runner with potential.

What A Friend loves the going, distance and track. All things in his favour and is another runner that is hard to ignore. Backstage on the other hand is popular because of his Point-to-Point victory recently. However I would like to see him improve more before placing money on him in this race.

Silver By Nature and Ballabriggs are the last two to look at in the market leaders. Silver By Nature has been racing at a steady level for a while but I think he lacks some of the class necessary in this race. However his excellent weighting my well make up for this and I expect him to run a big race. Ballabriggs has won 5 out of 7 races since 2009 but the class level of those races has not been high. He is definitely rapidly improving but has he got enough improvement in him to win the Grand National? It is certainly possible.

As you would expect most of the market leaders represent some chance in the race, this is part of what makes this the hardest race of the year to analyse. Our shortlist of potentials includes:

Tidal Bay

Quinz

Don’t Push It

The Midnight Club

Oscar Time

What A Friend

Silver By Nature

Ballabriggs

A total of eight possible contenders, not bad from 40 runners. How do we bet them? There are so many markets on Betfair this year it gives us lots of potential. First of all note the 6TBP market which gives you six runners to place, there is even a 10TBP market where the odds are going to be lower but it could well be worth using in this ultra competitive race.

I think I would start for a dutch across all these runners, at the current odds this would give you just better than 1/1 should one of them come in which I think is pretty good going. I would consider a place bet in the 6TBP market for Tidal Bay, Silver By Nature, Quinz, What A Friend and Ballabriggs with a normal place bet on The Midnight Club and Oscar Time.

There is certainly going to be a lot of excitement in this years race and hopefully we can bring in some profit as well.

Michael Wilding

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Michael Wilding is owner of Race Advisor a well respected horse racing site that aims to teach and educate as well as provide tips.

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Aintree Trends and Statistics

The below comes from Dave over at Racing Trends.

Stats are based on ten years historical data.

You can read more from Dave at this link  Horse Racing Blog

Saturday

1.45 John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 2m4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners started in the first two of the betting. Second favourites have won 5 races (PROFIT of £14.08; ROI +156.4%).
Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/2 or shorter.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
LTO race: 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival and all 5 had finished sixth or better.
Races in current season: 8 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had five runners and 3 have won (1 placed).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 20/1+: 0 wins from 44 (only 3 placed).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 15 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 27 runners (only 2 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 5, 2, F, 4, 3, 1/2, 5, 3, 5, 1
Age: 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (although they made up 66% of the runners).

Trends Summary: 5 and 6yos dominate the race but they do provide the majority of the runners. Second favourites have performed very well winning half the races, while a decent effort at Cheltenham LTO is another positive. Most of the winners had run at least four times that season which is a further positive to bear in mind. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race so any runner from the stable requires close scrutiny.





2.15 Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Race LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter (9 winners were 4/1 or shorter).
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners were first or second in the betting. Second favourites have won 6 renewals (PROFIT of £12.33; ROI +112.1%).
Breeding: 5 of the last 10 winners were French bred (6 others were placed).
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had 4 winners in the past 10 renewals (5 in last 12).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 13/2+: 0 wins from 43 (only 4 placed).
Breeding: British bred runners have provided 0 winners from 16 with only 1 placed runner.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins, 6 seconds from 10.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2

Trends Summary: The best starting point is to look for horses that ran in the Arkle Chase LTO as they have provided 80% of the winners from around 50% of the total runners. The market has been a very strong indicator also with no winner priced over 6/1. Indeed there have been 9 winners priced 4/1 or shorter. In terms of breeding Feench breds definitely have an edge while British bred runners have struggled. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race.





2.50 John Smith’s Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 5 of the last 10 winners finished out of the frame / fell LTO.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 12/1 or shorter.
Trainers: 6 of the last 10 winners (60%) were trained in Ireland. Irish raiders have accounted for only a quarter of the total runners).
Jockeys: Ruby Walsh has had 3 wins from 6 rides in the race; Timmy Murphy has had 3 wins from 8.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Headgear: 0 wins from 25 runners for horses with any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue ties).
Price 14/1+: 0 wins from 47 (4 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12, but 5 others have finished second.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 7, 2, 1/2, F, 2, 10, 1/2, 4, 3
Breeding: Irish bred runners do have a slight edge having won 6 races (60%) from 40% of the total runners.

Trends Summary: Horses priced 12/1 or shorter have dominated the race while a good run LTO is not a necessity. Irish runners have an outstanding record in the race not just in the last 10 years but stretching back to the mid 70s. Irish breds perform above the norm, while horses wearing headgear have a poor record.





3.25 John Smith’s Handicap Chase 3m 1f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Class: 9 of the last 10 winnershad raced in Graded company in their careers.
Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least one of their last six starts.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has won the race 3 times (4 if you go back an extra year); Nicky Henderson has won the race twice.
Running style: Hold up horses have done well in this race with 6 wins from the last 10 renewals.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Course winners: Course winners are 0 from 25 with just 3 placed.
Career starts: Horses that had raced 25 times or more in their careers have provided just 1 win from 47 (LOSS of £41.50; ROI -88.3%).
LTO run: Horses that failed to finish on their previous start have provided 0 winners from 31.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a small loss.
Finishing positions of favourites: P, 1, 3, 5, 2, 4/P, 1, F, PU, 4
Course LTO: 6 of the 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO from 60 runners (SR 10%); horses that did not race at the festival have provided 4 winners from 93 (SR 4.3%).

Trends Summary: Not the strongest races of the meeting as far as trends are concerned. It is best to focus on horses that have won at least once in their last six runs, and have run in Graded company at some point in their careers. Any horses trained by Jonjo O’Neill needs close scrutiny, while Nicky Henderson has a decent record also. In terms of negatives, avoid horses that have 25 times or more in their careers and/or any horse that failed to finish LTO. Finally, horses that ran at the Cheltenham festival have a much better chance of winning than those that did not.





4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced 20/1 or shorter. Hence 70% of the winners have come from 29% of the runners.
Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further – this stat holds true right back to 1970.
Age: 9 and 10yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners (70%) from just under 50% of the runners.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.
Breeding: 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 96 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from 30 and none have finished in the first four – indeed 23 have failed to complete the course). 13yo and older runners are rare but all 10 have been soundly beaten.
Price 40/1+: 1 win from 188 qualifiers.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 55, with 3 further finishing placed (LOSS of £47.00; ROI -85.5%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 20.
Finishing positions of favourites: F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R, 1/6, 7, 1/4
Trainers: 4 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland.

Trends Summary: Mon Mome was a shock 100/1 winner two years ago but overall big priced runners should be ignored. One stat that goes back to 1970 is concerned with the fact that all winners had won over 3 miles or further in their careers. Irish trainers deserve respect also as they have provided 40% of the winners from less than 20% of the total runners. In terms of weight, horses carrying bigger weights (11st 2lb or more) have a poor record although Don’t Push It bucked the trend last year carrying 11st 5lb to victory. In terms of age it looks best to avoid horses aged 8 or younger.





4.55 John Smith’s Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 2m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 20/1.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 10st 10lb or less.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 0 wins from 10.
Market: The top three in the betting have provided 0 winners.
Official ratings: Horses with an OR of 133 or more have provided 1 winner from 43 (LOSS of £31.00; ROI -72.1%).
Weights: The top seven in the weights have provided only 2 winners from 74.
Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 22 runners but 0 winners (only 3 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 15, F, 2, 13, 15, 8, PU, 18, 8
Age: 6 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (16 out of the last 20 going back a further 10 years). However, they do make up a fair proportion of the total runners.

Trends Summary: On the face of it there seem to be limited trends, but horses carrying 10st 10lb or less that are priced between 7/1 and 20/1 is a starting point at least.





5.30 Champion Standard National Hunt Flat Race 2m 1f

The race was not run in 2007 so I have gone back an extra year.

POSITIVE TRENDS

Season’s form: 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least once that season.
Market: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced 25/1 or bigger.
Age: 6yos have a decent record with 5 wins from 38 (PROFIT of £104.25; ROI +274.3%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Horses from the top 8 of the betting have won just 3 of the 10 races.
Age: Horses aged 4 have provided just 1 winner from 59 (LOSS £44.00; ROI -74.6%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins, 3 placed from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 8, 1, 1, 14, 3, 4, 4, 3/20, 2, 19

Trends Summary: With the last 5 of the last 7 winners having been priced 25/1 or bigger this is not an easy finale. 6yos have a good record having won 50% of the races from 19% of the total runners. So a big priced 6yo is probably the value call.

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Grand National Statistics

Grand National Statistics provided by RacingTrends.co.uk

4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top 8 in the betting. Hence 70% of the winners have come from 22% of the runners.
Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further – this stat holds true right back to 1970.
Age: 9 and 10yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners from under 50% of the runners.
Weight: All of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.
Trainers: 5 of the last 9 winners were trained in Ireland.
Running style: 6 of the last 10 winners raced prominently from the start, and 9 were prominent starting their second circuit.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 91 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from 29 and none have finished in the first four). 13yo and older runners are rare but all 13 have been soundly beaten.
Price 40/1+: 0 wins from 195 qualifiers.
Weight: The top 5 in the weights (inc. joints) have won 0 races from 52.
Breeding: All 98 French bred horses have been beaten.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 62, with 2 further finishing placed (LOSS of £54.00; ROI -87.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 19 for a loss of £3.00.
Finishing positions of favourites: F, U, F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R, 1/6

Trends Summary: Although the Grand National has a large number of runners, several can be eliminated from calculations from a trends/stats perspective. Firstly ignore horses 7 or younger and those 13 or older, horses priced 40/1 or bigger, French breds, the top 5 of the weights, horses carrying over 11st 1lb and horses wearing headgear. Using this method would have left you with around 25% of the runners and all the winners would have been in this group. Essentially you should be able to narrow down a 40 strong field to a shortlist of around 10 or 11 runners. This makes selecting the winner somewhat easier! Irish trainers deserve maximum respect also as they have provided 50% of the winners from 17% of the total runners.