Horse Racing Stats For Saturday

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Doncaster favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
2yo maidens 20 68 29.4 -£16.89 -24.8 2.10
3yo handicaps 11 58 19.0 -£19.35 -33.4 3.20, 5.05
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 59 244 24.2 -£14.29 -5.9 3.55
3yo+ maidens 6 22 27.3 -£10.25 -46.6 4.25

Goodwood favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
2yo maidens 33 104 31.7 -£9.39 -9.0 4.20
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 70 331 21.2 -£50.06 -15.1 2.05, 2.35, 3.45, 5.35

Hamilton favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 71 301 23.6 -£60.33 -20.0 7.10, 7.40, 8.10, 9.10
3yo+ maidens 12 21 57.1 £6.90 32.9 8.40

Lingfield favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
2yo maidens 38 68 55.9 £16.32 24.0 6.25
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 55 169 32.5 £28.53 16.9 5.55, 6.55, 7.25
2yo maidens 98 266 36.8 -£28.02 -10.5 7.55
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 362 1369 26.4 -£55.15 -4.0 8.25

Newmarket favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
2yo maidens 89 230 38.7 £18.00 7.8 3.25
3yo handicaps 65 220 29.6 £18.38 8.4 2.20
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 93 445 20.9 -£84.44 -19.0 4.05, 5.15, 5.50

Thirsk favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
2yo maidens 25 63 39.7 £2.02 3.2 1.55
3yo handicaps 23 73 31.5 £0.40 0.5 3.40
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 67 242 27.7 £16.73 6.9 4.10, 4.45, 5.20, 5.45
3yo+ maidens 18 46 39.1 -£9.07 -19.7 3.05

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

Race type Wins Bets SR Profit ROI Race Times
2yo nurseries 249 922 27 -£62.25 -6.8 Good 4.55, Hami 6.40, Newm 2.50, Thir 2.30
All age Group 1 races 40 99 40.4 +£1.75 1.8 Good 3.10

DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

Course & distance (time) Bottom third win % Middle third win% Top third win%
Goodwood 6f (2.05, 4.55) 46 40 14
Goodwood 1m1f (5.35) 20 47 33
Hamilton 5f (7.10) 24 24 53
Hamilton 1m (9.10) 45 27 27
Lingfield 7f140yds (5.55) 20 40 40
Lingfield 6f (7.25) 13 13 73
Lingfield aw 1m2f (8.25) 34 29 37
Thirsk 5f (2.30) 45 15 40
Thirsk 1m (3.40, 4.10) 32 41 27
Thirsk 6f (5.20) 16 32 52

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This information was taken from the excellent RacingTrends Service.

Shown above is actually just a small portion of the Saturday message from RacingTrends. In addition to horse racing statistics RacingTrends also provide long term profitable systematic lays selections which are a bit more akin to a normal tipping service.

HINT: RacingTrends  will on occasion offer a free trial to sports betting blog subscribers. Why not Register Here for Free so you know when such a deal is available.

Aintree Trends and Statistics

The below comes from Dave over at Racing Trends.

Stats are based on ten years historical data.

You can read more from Dave at this link  Horse Racing Blog

Saturday

1.45 John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 2m4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners started in the first two of the betting. Second favourites have won 5 races (PROFIT of £14.08; ROI +156.4%).
Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/2 or shorter.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
LTO race: 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival and all 5 had finished sixth or better.
Races in current season: 8 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had five runners and 3 have won (1 placed).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 20/1+: 0 wins from 44 (only 3 placed).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 15 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 27 runners (only 2 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 5, 2, F, 4, 3, 1/2, 5, 3, 5, 1
Age: 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (although they made up 66% of the runners).

Trends Summary: 5 and 6yos dominate the race but they do provide the majority of the runners. Second favourites have performed very well winning half the races, while a decent effort at Cheltenham LTO is another positive. Most of the winners had run at least four times that season which is a further positive to bear in mind. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race so any runner from the stable requires close scrutiny.





2.15 Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Race LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter (9 winners were 4/1 or shorter).
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners were first or second in the betting. Second favourites have won 6 renewals (PROFIT of £12.33; ROI +112.1%).
Breeding: 5 of the last 10 winners were French bred (6 others were placed).
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had 4 winners in the past 10 renewals (5 in last 12).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 13/2+: 0 wins from 43 (only 4 placed).
Breeding: British bred runners have provided 0 winners from 16 with only 1 placed runner.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins, 6 seconds from 10.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2

Trends Summary: The best starting point is to look for horses that ran in the Arkle Chase LTO as they have provided 80% of the winners from around 50% of the total runners. The market has been a very strong indicator also with no winner priced over 6/1. Indeed there have been 9 winners priced 4/1 or shorter. In terms of breeding Feench breds definitely have an edge while British bred runners have struggled. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race.





2.50 John Smith’s Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 5 of the last 10 winners finished out of the frame / fell LTO.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 12/1 or shorter.
Trainers: 6 of the last 10 winners (60%) were trained in Ireland. Irish raiders have accounted for only a quarter of the total runners).
Jockeys: Ruby Walsh has had 3 wins from 6 rides in the race; Timmy Murphy has had 3 wins from 8.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Headgear: 0 wins from 25 runners for horses with any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue ties).
Price 14/1+: 0 wins from 47 (4 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12, but 5 others have finished second.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 7, 2, 1/2, F, 2, 10, 1/2, 4, 3
Breeding: Irish bred runners do have a slight edge having won 6 races (60%) from 40% of the total runners.

Trends Summary: Horses priced 12/1 or shorter have dominated the race while a good run LTO is not a necessity. Irish runners have an outstanding record in the race not just in the last 10 years but stretching back to the mid 70s. Irish breds perform above the norm, while horses wearing headgear have a poor record.





3.25 John Smith’s Handicap Chase 3m 1f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Class: 9 of the last 10 winnershad raced in Graded company in their careers.
Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least one of their last six starts.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has won the race 3 times (4 if you go back an extra year); Nicky Henderson has won the race twice.
Running style: Hold up horses have done well in this race with 6 wins from the last 10 renewals.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Course winners: Course winners are 0 from 25 with just 3 placed.
Career starts: Horses that had raced 25 times or more in their careers have provided just 1 win from 47 (LOSS of £41.50; ROI -88.3%).
LTO run: Horses that failed to finish on their previous start have provided 0 winners from 31.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a small loss.
Finishing positions of favourites: P, 1, 3, 5, 2, 4/P, 1, F, PU, 4
Course LTO: 6 of the 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO from 60 runners (SR 10%); horses that did not race at the festival have provided 4 winners from 93 (SR 4.3%).

Trends Summary: Not the strongest races of the meeting as far as trends are concerned. It is best to focus on horses that have won at least once in their last six runs, and have run in Graded company at some point in their careers. Any horses trained by Jonjo O’Neill needs close scrutiny, while Nicky Henderson has a decent record also. In terms of negatives, avoid horses that have 25 times or more in their careers and/or any horse that failed to finish LTO. Finally, horses that ran at the Cheltenham festival have a much better chance of winning than those that did not.





4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced 20/1 or shorter. Hence 70% of the winners have come from 29% of the runners.
Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further – this stat holds true right back to 1970.
Age: 9 and 10yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners (70%) from just under 50% of the runners.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.
Breeding: 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 96 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from 30 and none have finished in the first four – indeed 23 have failed to complete the course). 13yo and older runners are rare but all 10 have been soundly beaten.
Price 40/1+: 1 win from 188 qualifiers.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 55, with 3 further finishing placed (LOSS of £47.00; ROI -85.5%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 20.
Finishing positions of favourites: F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R, 1/6, 7, 1/4
Trainers: 4 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland.

Trends Summary: Mon Mome was a shock 100/1 winner two years ago but overall big priced runners should be ignored. One stat that goes back to 1970 is concerned with the fact that all winners had won over 3 miles or further in their careers. Irish trainers deserve respect also as they have provided 40% of the winners from less than 20% of the total runners. In terms of weight, horses carrying bigger weights (11st 2lb or more) have a poor record although Don’t Push It bucked the trend last year carrying 11st 5lb to victory. In terms of age it looks best to avoid horses aged 8 or younger.





4.55 John Smith’s Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 2m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 20/1.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 10st 10lb or less.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 0 wins from 10.
Market: The top three in the betting have provided 0 winners.
Official ratings: Horses with an OR of 133 or more have provided 1 winner from 43 (LOSS of £31.00; ROI -72.1%).
Weights: The top seven in the weights have provided only 2 winners from 74.
Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 22 runners but 0 winners (only 3 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 15, F, 2, 13, 15, 8, PU, 18, 8
Age: 6 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (16 out of the last 20 going back a further 10 years). However, they do make up a fair proportion of the total runners.

Trends Summary: On the face of it there seem to be limited trends, but horses carrying 10st 10lb or less that are priced between 7/1 and 20/1 is a starting point at least.





5.30 Champion Standard National Hunt Flat Race 2m 1f

The race was not run in 2007 so I have gone back an extra year.

POSITIVE TRENDS

Season’s form: 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least once that season.
Market: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced 25/1 or bigger.
Age: 6yos have a decent record with 5 wins from 38 (PROFIT of £104.25; ROI +274.3%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Horses from the top 8 of the betting have won just 3 of the 10 races.
Age: Horses aged 4 have provided just 1 winner from 59 (LOSS £44.00; ROI -74.6%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins, 3 placed from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 8, 1, 1, 14, 3, 4, 4, 3/20, 2, 19

Trends Summary: With the last 5 of the last 7 winners having been priced 25/1 or bigger this is not an easy finale. 6yos have a good record having won 50% of the races from 19% of the total runners. So a big priced 6yo is probably the value call.

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

National Hunt Favourites who failed to finish – how do they perform next time out?

It’s an interesting question.

There is some logic to thinking that a horse who was favourite last time out must have some significant positive attributes.

If he failed to finish in his last race would that big blot on his most recent record put too many people off him next time and thus possibly present a value betting opportunity?

I am sure we could all scratch our chins, ponder and even waffle a load of hot air on the matter.

One way to provide a serious answer to such questions however is to get stuck into the stats and come up with an accurate truth.

A smarter way however is to let someone else do all that boring research work and you can then just examine the findings.

If you think that’s a good idea take a look here ==> National Hunt Favourite Stats


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Horse Racing Nuggets

My mate Dave Renham is a mine of information on uk horse racing.

I am firm believer that if you take the time to carefully assess the past you are likely to make better decissions about the future.

This applies very well to betting on horses as well as to other walks of life.

Dave recently started producing a little column called “Do You Know” for full members over at www.PunterProfits.com.

This is just a tiny extra on top of all the usual great research learning over there.

Below is a copy of a recent one.

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Did you know?

This is a new section that I started last week where I will share some facts and figs that hopefully you will find interesting and useful. Last week I mentioned that Dandy Nicholls had a great record in the Ayr Gold – the result of the 2010 race on Saturday saw Nicholls have the first and second at 14/1 and 8/1. Here are the facts and figs for this week:

  • Did you know that favourites in Novice chases win around 46% of the time? Despite the high strike rate however, they make a loss of around 4% to SP.
  • Did you know that Tony Mc Coy has ridden 23 winners from 104 for Paul Nicholls in the past 5 years? BUT despite a decent strike rate you would have lost £388.90 if you had backed all 104 runners at £10 per bet.
  • Do you know the chances of six National Hunt favourites winning all six races on a six race card? Well statistically it should occur once in every 774 meetings (this is assuming NH favourites win 33% of all races – which they tend to do).
  • Horses that won on the flat last time out lose around 17 pence in the £ if you back them to repeat their win. However, horses that won in National Hunt racing last time out lose under 14 pence in the £ if you back them to repeat their win.
  • Since 2005 Frankie Dettori has won just over 20% of the races he has ridden in. However, despite that he has had a losing run of 31.

Betting On Scottish Football

Scottish Football Betting

The following comes from Tammboy over at the Football Bets website.
As an ex odds compiler for a major bookmaker his advice has proven worth following.

————————————–

Scottish Division Two
Livingston WIN @Evs (vs. Peterhead) – 1pt win bet (Bet365, Blue Square, Coral, William Hill)

Peterhead vs. Livingston

Livingston are the division’s favourites and they’ve done nothing wrong this season beating most
of the better sides in the division and only a last minute penalty stopping them from winning
all their games.
They face Peterhead, one of the weaker teams and it’s arguable they should be shorter than
the Evens available. Back them to win at Evens before the price goes.

Sale Week at PunterProfits

FREE Favourites Report and Sale Week

PunterProfits is a site well respected for hard work and honest research.

Dave Renham there has just put up for download a great little FREE report
into favourites in uk flat racing.

Which trainer for example wins 43% of the time when his horse starts favourite?

Plus this trainer makes a profit at starting price of 21% of turnover.
There is sale week on at PunterProfits right now where for the price of a pint
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COURSE FAVOURITE STATS

Below is a small portion of the very comprehensive horse racing data message from www.RacingTrends.co.uk

The bit I have picked out covers stats for favourites for races running Saturday May 8th

His full message also contains a lot more data about draw bias and trainers etc.

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Ascot favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 49 240 20.4 -£36.47 -15.2 2.50, 3.25, 4.35, 5.10
2yo maidens 5 31 16.1 -£17.12 -55.2 4.00

Haydock favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 86 387 22.2 -£34.40 -8.9 5.20
2yo maidens 51 140 36.4 +£2.45 +1.8 2.30

Lingfield favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo handicaps 28 93 30.1 +£22.80 +24.5 4.55
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 49 186 26.3 +£7.63 +4.1 5.30
3yo+ maidens 31 73 42.5 -£3.31 -4.5 4.20

Nottingham favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo handicaps 49 183 26.8 -£15.98 -8.7 2.55, 5.15
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 75 313 24.0 -£28.74 -9.2 1.55, 2.25, 4.05, 4.40, 5.45

Thirsk favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 75 288 26.0 -£11.14 -3.9 6.35, 7.05, 7.35, 8.35
3yo+ maidens 28 72 38.9 -£17.55 -24.4 8.05

Warwick favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo handicaps 15 84 17.9 -£29.26 -34.8 8.20
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 51 264 19.3 -£57.74 -21.9 5.50, 6.50, 7.50
3yo+ maidens 32 65 49.2 +£12.46 +19.2 7.20
2yo maidens 58 127 45.7 +£10.24 +8.1 6.20

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

Race type Wins Bets SR Profit ROI Race Times
3yo Group races 56 170 32.9 -£14.21 -8.4 Ling 3.10
3yo Listed 73 219 33.3 -£29.42 -13.4 Ling 2.40
All age Group 3 races 89 285 31.2 -£22.86 -8 Ling 2.10
3yo+ Listed 191 605 31.6 -£76.99 -12.7 Asco 2.20, Hayd 2.00, Nott 3.30
3yo+/4yo+ sellers 321 1018 31.5 +£29.07 2.9 Thir 6.05

Horse Racing Trainer Research

When it comes to uk horse racing it pays to know your trainers !

Trainers exhibit very different performances under varying race conditions.

Some do very well with their 2 year olds whilst others do far better with their other horses.

With varying training regimes aimed at peaking horses at different times of year monthly performance stats are also important to consider.

Dave over at PunterProfits recently compiled a serious research document into racing trainers who run on the uk flat season.

He tidied it all up and has created a neat pdf file with easy to use bookmark clickable links that jump you to the data on any particular trainer.

A few quick ideas for usage:

1 – If you like to assess your own races it is an obvious mine of extra information you can use to form a more correct betting opinion

2 – Use it as a base to create your own systematic betting or laying approach.  ie pick out for your self the criteria for a bet using the strike rate and profitibility records supplied. Look for the most positive stats if you are a backer or the most negative ones if you are a layer.

Two links for you to examine

A – a mini article covering three trainers with sample data pulled from the main pdf.  Click Here ===> Flat Horse Racing Trainer Research

B – A short video showing the full copy of the document in use

Click Here ===> Horse Racing Trainer Video

The free stuff above is worth a look.

To get the full research document you need to join as a full member of PunterProfits.

This research doc is just a little extra perk of membership there.

There are in fact three other similar research reports you get on joining.

One for All Weather Racing

One For National Hunt Trainers

And finally another comprehensive report into favourites.

Even if you only stay one month there you get to keep all four research reports.

Worth a look if you are serious about your betting on the horses and value having quality research to guide your judgement.

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics by Dave Renham

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Dave offers a useful free guide to horse racing.

To get yours click here ==> Horse Racing Course

——————————————————-

In this post I am looking at the Spring Mile, the Brocklesby and the Listed Cammidge sprint.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 15 renewals. All profits
and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on
investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.00 Doncaster -
Spring Mile – 1m class 2 (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
Second, third and fourth favourites have provided 6 winners and backing
all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £12.50 (ROI +25%).
Course LTO:

9 of the 15 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. They have provided
60% of the winners from only 33% of the total runners. Backing all such
runners would have produced a profit of £44.50 (ROI +40.5%).

Age:
4yos have won 10 of the last 15 renewals. (67% of winners from 44% of
the total runners).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites:
1 win from 15 for a loss of £7.00 (ROI -46.7%).
Price:
All runners priced 11/2 or shorter have been beaten (12 in total).
Price:
Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 122 qualifiers
for a loss of £88.00 (ROI -72.1%).
Distance LTO:
Horses that ran over 1m1f or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 78
qualifiers.
Class LTO:
67 horses raced in the same class or higher LTO and all have lost.
Course LTO:
Horses that ran on the all weather LTO have provided just 3 winners
from 155 runners for a loss of £108.00 (ROI -69.7%).
Age:
Horses 7yos and older have provided 0 winners from 55.

GENERAL STATS

Position LTO:
Horses that finished 10th or worse LTO have won 7 of the
races.
Sex of horse:
Female runners have a fair record with 3 wins from 31 for a profit of
£22.00 (ROI +71%).

Trends analysis:
In general I would look to use the negative trends first to help narrow
this big field down. Firstly ignore 7 year olds and older, then ignore
and horses dropping in trip. All 15 winners raced in a lower class LTO
and there should be preference for horses that ran at a Grade 1 track
LTO. Also LTO form does not really seem to matter as nearly half the
winners have won after finishing 10
th
or worse LTO.

2.35 Doncaster -
Cammidge Trophy – 6f Listed (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price:
7 of the last 15 winners have been priced between 6/1 and 11/1. Backing
all runners in this price bracket would have produced a profit of £14.50
(ROI +26.9%).
LTO class:
Horses that raced in Listed class LTO have provided 8 of the last 15
winners.
Days since last
run:
14 of the last 15 winners were having their first run of the
year in the UK.
Running style:
In recent years horses that have raced up with or close to the pace
have had a clear advantage providing 8 of the last 11 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

LTO class:
Horses that raced in class 3 company or lower LTO have provided 0 winners
from 25 runners.
LTO race type:
Horses that raced in an all age handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 65 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -76.9%).
LTO course:

Horses that raced on the all weather LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 33 for a loss of £24.50 (ROI -74.2%).

Headgear:
Horses wearing blinkers / visors have provided 0 winners from 24.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc.
joints):
4 wins from 17 for a loss of £2.75 (ROI -16.2%).
Age:
3yos have won 1 race from 9 (SR 11.1%); 4yos have won 4 races from 59
(SR 6.8%); 5yos have won 4 races from 31 (SR 12.9%); 6yos have won 3
races from 28 (SR 10.7%); 7yos have won 2 races from 23 (SR 8.7%); 8yos+
have won 1 from 26 (SR 3.8%).
Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 13 races from 143 (SR 9.1%); female runners have
won 2 races from 33 (SR 6.1%).

Trends analysis:
This is a race that traditionally favours seasonal debutants rather
than horses that have raced recently on the all weather. The best value
has been in the 6/1 to 11/1 price bracket. Prominent racers have a good
recent record, while horses that raced in Listed class LTO have been
the most successful. Avoid horses that raced in an all age handicap
LTO and/or and any horse wearing blinkers or a visor. Also horses that
raced in class 3 or lower LTO look best ignored.

3.40 Doncaster -
Brocklesby – 5f conditions (2yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 6 in the betting. (15.4
runners per race is the 15-year average).
Price:
14 of the last 15 winners have been priced 14/1 or lower.
Draw:
In big fields high draws have had the advantage in recent years with
four of the seven 17 runner plus races since 1998 going to one of the
top three stalls. Indeed, 2 years ago the first five runners home were
drawn 19, 14, 13, 18 and 20 (19 ran; 2 non runners). Last year the first
six horses home in a 19 runners race were drawn 11 or higher.
Running style:
The last 15 winners have raced close to or up with the pace.
Trainers:
Bill Turner has saddled 4 winners and 4 placed horses from 15.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc.
joints):
2 wins from 20 for a loss of £10.25 (ROI -51.3%).
Market position:
Horses 10th or bigger in the betting market have provided
1 win from 89 runners for a loss of £63.00 (ROI -70.8%).
Price:
Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 110 runners
for a loss of £84.00 (ROI -76.4%).
Training centre:
Newmarket trainers have provided just 1 winners from 23 for a loss of
£19.75 (ROI -85.9%).

GENERAL STATS

Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 12 races from 170 (SR 4.9%); female runners have
won 3 races from 61 (SR 4.9%).
Foaling date:
January and February foals have won 5 races from 79 (SR 6.3%); March
foals have won 6 races from 70 (SR 8.6%); April and May foals have won
4 from 82 (SR 4.9%).

Trends analysis:
With this being such an early 2yo race one would expect trends to be
thin on the ground, but there are several useful pointers to this contest.
Traditionally it is best to focus on horses priced 14/1 or shorter,
although it should be noted that favourites have struggled. Racing close
to the pace has been vital and this has become more important as the
fields have increased, so ‘in running’ players take note! A trainer
to note is Bill Turner whose record is very impressive. Finally, in
big fields a high draw has been an advantage.