Saturday, January 28th, 2012 at
12:43 pm
The below is a newish section fromThe Mathematician’s very comprehensive daily racing message.
He calls it the Strongest Statisic Today
In short it points to something interesting found
through his research.
Some days it may point to a horse to think about backing.
Other days it may be a strong stat that could lead you to opposing a short priced favourite.
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S t r o n g e s t S t a t i s t i c T o d a y
Uttoxeter 2.10
VICTORIA ROSE 10/1
Another Positive Statistic today. I dont expect her
to win rated lower than most of her rivals but she is
a double figure price and comes out curiously well so
I wouldnt put anyone off having a small interest bet.
* All Mares Novice Chases run in January
* Horses from Handicap Hurdles
* Between 7 and 20 career starts
* Running over 19f or more last time
* Between 1 and 4 runs that season
* There were 8 horses with that profile
* They finished W 2 W W W W W W
* VICTORIA ROSE shares that profile
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
PS price has come in a bit since Mathematician Members got this earlier today. Now best priced 9/1 at VC
.
Saturday, May 1st, 2010 at
12:00 pm
Saturday Horse Racing Stats
The below was provided by RacingTrends
for more info click here ==> Horse Racing Blog
=====================================
Sat May 1st 2010
Best races for favourites
2.55 Thirsk
4.15, 5.25 Newmarket
6.45 Doncaster
Trainer stat to note
W Haggas has a good record with horses off track for 8+ weeks assuming they start in the top 3 of the betting. His strike rate is around 30% with profits of just under 30%. He runs Shamali in the 1.55 Newmarket and he is currently 3rd favourite.
Best race for front runners
5.15; 5.45 Thirsk
Strong course trainer stats
Doncaster trainer stats
| Trainer |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike Rate (%) |
Profit |
ROI (%) |
Engagements |
| M P Tregoning |
5 |
13 |
38.5 |
+£3.30 |
+25.4 |
8.20 |
| H R A Cecil |
7 |
34 |
20.6 |
+£12.00 |
+35.3 |
7.15 |
Newmarket trainer stats
| Trainer |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike Rate (%) |
Profit |
ROI (%) |
Engagements |
| J H M Gosden |
80 |
416 |
19.2 |
+£115.79 |
+27.8 |
5.25 |
| J R Best |
10 |
56 |
17.9 |
+£56.75 |
+101.3 |
3.05, 3.05, 4.15 |
| H Candy |
14 |
85 |
16.5 |
+£33.25 |
+39.1 |
3.40 |
| A P O’Brien |
16 |
98 |
16.3 |
+£21.89 |
+22.3 |
3.05, 3.05, 3.05 |
Saturday, June 13th, 2009 at
11:57 am
It always helps to understand the past when betting on horses.
Below are a few interesting facts for Saturday’s racing.
These are just a tiny tiny sample from the member message over at www.RacingTrends.co.uk
Positive Stat
Pegasus Lad (1:50 Sandown) Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less and tackling at least 1m1f; SR 20.6% ROI +23.8%
Negative Stat
The Two G’s (5:50 Lingfield) Poor sire stat – Mark of Esteem 2yo non handicaps over 5f SR 3.3% ROI loss -71.3%
SR = strike rate
ROI = return on investment
figures based on about a decade of past horse racing history
Friday, April 3rd, 2009 at
1:58 pm
Grand National Statistics provided by RacingTrends.co.uk
4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners came from the top 8 in the betting. Hence 70% of the winners have come from 22% of the runners. |
| Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further – this stat holds true right back to 1970. |
| Age: 9 and 10yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners from under 50% of the runners. |
| Weight: All of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less. |
| Trainers: 5 of the last 9 winners were trained in Ireland. |
| Running style: 6 of the last 10 winners raced prominently from the start, and 9 were prominent starting their second circuit. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 91 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from 29 and none have finished in the first four). 13yo and older runners are rare but all 13 have been soundly beaten. |
| Price 40/1+: 0 wins from 195 qualifiers. |
| Weight: The top 5 in the weights (inc. joints) have won 0 races from 52. |
| Breeding: All 98 French bred horses have been beaten. |
| Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 62, with 2 further finishing placed (LOSS of £54.00; ROI -87.1%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 19 for a loss of £3.00. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: F, U, F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R, 1/6 |
| Trends Summary: Although the Grand National has a large number of runners, several can be eliminated from calculations from a trends/stats perspective. Firstly ignore horses 7 or younger and those 13 or older, horses priced 40/1 or bigger, French breds, the top 5 of the weights, horses carrying over 11st 1lb and horses wearing headgear. Using this method would have left you with around 25% of the runners and all the winners would have been in this group. Essentially you should be able to narrow down a 40 strong field to a shortlist of around 10 or 11 runners. This makes selecting the winner somewhat easier! Irish trainers deserve maximum respect also as they have provided 50% of the winners from 17% of the total runners. |
