Uk Horse Racing Favourites Research

Many love backing favourites for good reason.

They win more races than 2nd favourites and 3rd favourites etc.

Just blindly backing favourites alone however will not make you cash.

You need to know which favourites to back and which to avoid.

Dave Renham has just released a free research document that is very much worth your attention.

Favourites typically win 30% of the time.

Which trainer however wins with 43.9% of his runners when they go off favourite?

Find that out and a lot more in Dave’s excellent FREE flat racing favourites report.

To get your copy click here == > Flat Racing Favourites

In flat racing the horses start the race from metal starting stalls.
The draw refers to a horse’s placing / position in the starting stalls.
Draw 1 is on the left, while the highest number is on the right.
On left handed round courses the lowest draw is drawn next to the inside rail;
on right handed courses the highest draw is drawn next to the inside rail.

The draw can be very important at certain courses over certain distances.

This is due to a number of factors – it could be that some horses have an
advantage because they are drawn on the inside and are hence able to
take the shortest route round the bend.
Picture I guess the 400m in athletics and the advantage you would
have on the inside track if starting positions were not staggered.

Another factor that can induce draw bias is the ground.
It could be that the ground close to one of the rails is quicker than the
rest of the course and hence those horse drawn in the right position can
take best advantage of the better ground.

To give you an idea of how strong draw biases can be ponder Chester over
5 furlongs. 5f at Chester is a classic case of a draw bias resulting from track configuration.

Since 1997 horses drawn 1 (on the inside) have won 43 of 205
races which is better than winning 1 race in every five.

You would have made a profit backing all horses drawn 1 over that period.
Compare this to horses drawn 10 or higher who have combined to win just 1 race from 276 runners!

Knowledge of where Draw Bias is likely to occur is very important to have.

Draw Bias stats can be used in a variety of ways.

Well drawn horses should be given much more consideration when analyzing a race for example.
Conversely poorly drawn horses have a severe negative to overcome and
you should be wary if you wish to back them. You may use the draw to
eliminate all the weaker drawn horses in order to make the race easier.

Clearly occasionally these poorer drawn horses will win but overall the stats
will be in your favour. At some courses backing the best drawn horse or best
two drawn horses has made a long term profit – this is a rather simplistic way
of using the draw but it can be profitable.

Indeed you may want to consider backing the best drawn horses in forecasts and tricasts.
For example, looking at Thirsk over 5 furlongs – from 2005 to 2008 in 10+ runner handicaps
(the best races to use draw bias) if you had permed the highest four draws in twenty four
£1 straight tricasts in every race would have yielded a profit of £1265.24 (ROI +175.7%).
If you had permed the highest four draws in twelve £1 straight forecasts in every race would
have yielded a profit of £206.90 (ROI +57.5%).
This bet would have been landed in 12 of the 30 races (40% of races).
These types of forecast / tricast bet offer big returns for a relatively small outlay.

A further way to use Draw Bias information is to look for horses that run well
despite being hampered by a very serious draw bias against it.

A horse that comes 4th for example when very badly drawn could do much better
in a future race if on an equal draw or favourorable draw footing.

Dave Renham

Author Bio:

Dave Renham is a uk horse racing researcher who specialises
in cold hard facts and figures that can be used to open your eyes
to more informed betting propositions.

Draw Bias relative to each days racing is one area he covers in his excellent daily racing stats service.  For more info on this click here ==> Draw Bias

LINGFIELD 4.10

7/4 Becausewecan, 9/2 Dance The Star, 7/1 Cluain Alainn,
Samarinda, 10/1 Cashpoint.

This is a nasty framed race with 7 runners. Its a 0-92 handicap over 12 furlongs.
There has been 176 similar races at this time of year.
If you look at 4 year olds like BECAUSEWECAN who are having their
seasonal debuts when they have had 9 or more career starts their strike
rate dips dramatically and they have a 1-35 record with that winner having
far less weight. That would encourage me to oppose him first time out from his career high
handicap mark.  Equally no 4yo first time out debutant was like
CLUAIN ALAINN and he wouldnt interest me either. I think it is asking too
much of CASHPOINT to win this from a maiden and a small stable.
I think its between DANCE THE STAR and  SAMARINDA who finished
2nd and 5th in the same handicap  last time. DANCE THE STAR has a solid chance.
Statistically SAMARINDA has an excellent profile as a 7yo running well last time.
All his wins have been at shorter but he hasnt had a chance to show he stays properly
at 12f. He ran well over 12f last time but that was inconclusive.
He is probably value  but DANCE THE STAR did beat him last time.
I think I would have to bet one and save on another.
As SAMARINDA is better handicapped and a better price I’d see him as the best
option. Therefore DANCE THE STAR has to be the danger
but SAMARINDA the bet at around 7/1

SELECTION – SAMARINDA
7/1 Betfred Bet365

Guy Ward

The Mathematician

To read more from Guy click here  Horse Betting Blog

Right now I have to admit I am more focussed on preparation next week’s Cheltenham Festival than today’s racing.
I have already researched all my stats for the Festival.
( up on full member private message board now )
As it stands today I have identified six horses over the Festival that have the potential to be full Account bets.
Going, final runners, a bit more fine tuned research  and odds available will dictate if I account Bet them or not on race day.

The cheap first month deal for Cheltenham is still on.
Time is ticking on it however.

Here is the cheap price link:

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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Saturday Racing

I don’t see a bet strong enough to stake today as a full Account Bet.
I’ve 3 horses at the top of the full member message that look interesting.

One of them I will post up here on the free blog.

MICKY’S KNOCK OFF feels stronger but only because
in his race the opposition are easier to understand. The
other two runners have more unknown opposition but
it wouldn’t surprise me if they turned out to be stronger
options. Considering the frame of the races the bet that
stands out may well be 3 each way doubles on these 3.

Personally I’m having a small win bet on Micky’s Knock Off

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00

3/1 Il Forno, 4/1 Blue Neptune, 4/1 Magenta Strait
6/1 Bird Call, 6/1 Clear Ice, 6/1 Micky´s Knock Off
16/1 Crystal Glass, 50/1 Shawkantango.

The 4pm is a 3yo Claimer over 5f and these are rare as
contests. I would rule out everything with under 4 runs
as the 26 similar winners all had 5 or more starts. There
were 5 winners absent over a month. Interesting that 4
of them were fillies and that all 5 of them had between
9 and 12 career starts and came from handicaps. I had
3 on my shortlist. Horses like Blue Neptune that came
from 5f handicaps tended to run much better last time.
I respect Il Forno but horses from 6f claimers were 0-12
so I cant pretend I wouldn’t have preferred a better stat.
MICKY’S KNOCK OFF is a positive and my selection.
He has the required experience and a recent run which
many lack. He will be tough to kick out of the three. It
may be that around 7/2 he should be a win bet. He has
speed to burn and would have won at the 5f marker in
his last race. I think he will win.

SELECTION – MICKY’S KNOCK OFF

7/2 at Ladbrokes, PaddyPower , CanBet , Bet365

Best wishes
Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f – 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC Betfred

Best Wishes

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

If you have any interest in horse racing at all I am sure at some point you have opened up the Racing Post Newspaper and noted their ratings for each horse on their printed race cards.

These ratings also go by the name of PostMark

Quite simply they are score based on past form of the horse and are meant to give some indication of the best horses in the race.

All fine and dandy but one thing I have never seen printed in the racing post is any information as to whether these ratings are any good or not.

eg If you backed all the top postmark rated horses would you make cash or lose it?

Fortunately I know a man who has crunched the numbers and done the research to give you the answer to that one.

He has also gone a step further and broken the research down  further including aspects such as looking for top rated runners that are quick returners to the track and also the effect of market position ( fav, 2nd fav etc )

Go to the page below and about half way down the page you will see a section about the racing post ratings research.

Click here ==>    Racing Post Ratings Research

NB this is FREE

There are however bits of more detailed research you can choose to pay for if you like.

For example he has worked out a few past profitable systems based on racing post postmark ratings.

You get access to these and everything else that is full member only there if you register then upgrade your membership for £25.

In Uk Horse Racing it is often judged by punters a positive sign if a trainer sends just one horse to a meeting. The assumption made may be that if he is going to the expense and trouble to transport just one horse all the way to a course he must have good reason.

Is this just an old wives tale or is there some truth in it?

Dave Renham from PunterProfits.com trawled through about 5 years of National Hunt Horse Racing Results to try and get to the truth of things.

He made the assumption that each trainer would take a different attitude so he researched everything on a trainer by trainer basis.

For members over there he produced a downloadable spreadsheet with all the key facts and info such as strike rates and return on investment listed.

The full spreadsheet can be downloaded at the link below.

Note however you have to be a full member of punterprofits.com to get it.

http://www.punterprofits.com/profit/index.php?showtopic=10247

In respect to Dave and the members there I don’t want to detail all his research here however here are a few selected facts from his research for two of the top National Hunt Trainers

( ROI = Return On Investment .. a measure of profitability )

As you can see if one of these two trainers sends just one horse to a meeting it can indeed be taken as a positive sign.

Word of warning however .. not all trainers think the same way.

Dave’s fuller research details where this can be taken as a positive sign and where it should be ignored.

Interestingly it is even more positive than the above with some of the mid range / not so well known  trainers.

If you have been burnt by so called miracle systems and the sellers who hype them up you may start to come round to the conclusion that the only way to get ahead in your racing betting  is via knowledge and hard work.

If you have reached that stage of your racing betting career yet the continual research carried out by Dave over at PunterProfits.com should be of interest to you in keeping you ahead of the field on the Exchanges.

A bet for Doncaster this afternoon from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Best Bet today is ICELANDIC 4/1 in the Doncaster 2.40.
He won the race last year and I think he can do it again in
an easier renewal full of negatives. Going with him only as
a suggestion today. I did think about a Full Bet on him but
the stable are just coming out of a virus and havent had a
winner since April. Even with that worry I still feel he is
going to win this race but I would have liked to have seen
a few more runners and winners from the stable. I thought
about an each way bet but I think he is a better win bet. I
did think about splitting a bet with two win bets and the
double with PEPE SIMO in the first at Wincanton but he
is odds on now and I would only have done that if he’d
have been bigger than evens. In the end on what is a hard
Saturday without any all weather support I think the best
thing to do is stay with ICELANDIC as a mention. He is
the one horse in the race that I could bet. Think he wins.

Doncaster 2.40

ICELANDIC 4/1

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T O D A Y ‘S   R A C I N G

DONCASTER 2.40

Best Odds Guaranteed At Totesport.com Wentworth Stakes
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

3/1 Sir Gerry, 4/1 Icelandic, 5/1 Prescription, 6/1 Able Master 8/1 Desert Phantom,
10/1 Festoso, 12/1 Fullandby, 20/1 Arthur´s Edge, 20/1 Crystal Moments,
25/1 Lovely Thought, 33/1 Saxford 50/1 Protector, 500/1 Vanadium.

* This is a Listed race over 6f
* Doncaster has had 16 renewals of this race
* There’s been 35 similar races elsewhere at this time of year
* VANADIUM cant win at the weights
* I see the following horses as weak statistically
* All past winners were aged 7 or lower
* PROTECTOR is older than any past winner
* All past winners had at least 3 runs that season
* I would ignore all horses that havent had that
* DESERT PHANTOM fails that absent 398 days
* His trainer states he is very burly and will need the run
* He wont be placed if he is as unfit as he suggests
* SAXFORD fails that and looks badly underraced
* SIR GERRY also fails this with 1 run this year
* SIR GERRY also has a 178 day absence to overcome
* His trainer says he will come on a lot for the run
* SIR GERRY has also downgraded stables this year
* I dont see him as fit enough to win
* Horses from 5f races have struggled
* Only 1 past winner came from 7f as well
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time were 0-67
* FESTOSO fails that and looks opposable
* Hard to win a Listed race on the back of a poor last run
* I dont see an older filly like her overcoming that
* 3 year olds have the worst record
* Those aged 3 with 7 + career runs were 1-60
* ABLE MASTER fails that and has 14 runs
* Thats quite an exposed 3 year old
* ABLE MASTER also has to come down in trip
* Only 1 past winner dropped in trip to win this
* No 3 year old like him managed it in any similar races
* CRYSTAL MOMENTS has the same problem
* She is another 3yo coming down in distance
* She looks too exposed to be doing that
* LOVELY THOUGHT fails the same statistic
* She is not going to win an all aged Listed race
* Not coming from a Class 5 handicap for 3 year olds

* SHORTLIST

* FULLANDBY – PRESCRIPTION – ICELANDIC

* I am confident enough that one of these should win
* FULLANDBY and PRESCRIPTION come from handicaps
* They come from Class 3 handicaps
* I looked at the 35 similar races to this
* There were 8 winners that came from handicaps
* All 8 winners came from Class 2 handicaps
* Those that came from handicaps in lower grades were 0-40
* This suggests that this pair could fall short of whats required
* I think you can give them a better chance than that though
* FULLANDBY won easily just 4 days ago and is very fit
* FULLANDBY has ran in 8 Listed -Group Class races before
* All he has to show for it is one third place
* He usually gets found out at this level
* I think this is his best chance of winning one
* I think FULLANDBY will place
* I think he is one of the best place only bets today
* PRESCRIPTION also comes from a Class 3 handicap
* Statistically thats not really enough
* If you take the 35 similar Listed class sprints
* All 35 winners had all ran in at least Class 2 before
* PRESCRIPTON has not done that yet
* Every horse in this race has done that except two
* PRESCRIPTION and Arthurs Edge have yet to do that
* PRESCRIPTION is respected as he finally gets her ground
* Purely on her profile she ought to find 1-2 too good

SELECTION

ICELANDIC – Win Bet
FULLANDBY – Saver or place bet

ICELANDIC won this last year and is solid again. His
trainer has been savaged by the Virus all year and has
given a note of caution because of this. He states …..

“The year has been a disaster. We are probably
over the worst but whether Icelandic is 100 per cent I
don’t know. Soft ground will be in his favour”

That looks the only obstacle to him winning. He won
this easily last year from the same stall.  On Ratings
this is a much weaker race. This race on average official
ratings is 8lbs weaker than last years race.
This is a horse that hasnt been fit or right all year.
His last run at Ascot was much better than it looked.
He wasnt fancied. He was facing a 55 day break and its hard
for a 7 year old to win a Group Race when facing that absence.
The race he ran in last time was a much better class race than
this where every horse was rated 101 or more. He ran much better
than it looked staying on without being given a hard race
and not having the run of the race at all. He should be at
his peak today. Older horses have an excellent record in
this race. Horses like him aged 7 are 3-7 in this contest.
I think ICELANDIC will peak today and win this again.
I see FULLANDBY as the danger and its up to you if
you want saver on him around 7/1 or want a place bet
on him instead as a saver. I expect ICELANDIC to win.

Guy Ward

To visit Guy’s site Click Here Horse Racing Tips

This is a copy of a member message sent on Friday to clients

at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

The advised 33/1 has now gone but 22/1 is available right now on William Hill

Out of interest Skybet are offering 6 places instead of the usual 4 on this race today.

NEWMARKET 3.40

ToteSPORT.COM CAMBRIDGESHIRE
(HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+)  1m1f

1 Ante Post Bet

Cambridgeshire Handicap (Saturday)
Newmarket 3.40

GREYLAMI  28/1

£25 Each Way

33/1 Hills – VC -Boyles -Spbet -
28/1 Bet365 -Tote – Blue Square -888sport
25/1 Ladbrokes -Corals – Stan J – Sky
25/1 Paddy Power – Betfred

Decided to go with a bet in the Cambridgeshire
Not statistically perfect but I have
set the bar so high statistically that I can find
fault with everything and I spent most of the
day on the race yesterday and happy that he
is overpriced and has a better chance than lots
of better fancied runners. We dont have many
bets in big handicaps and you can always expect
to lose in these races but we have earnt a crack
at the race this week so Greylami is a full bet.

SELECTION – GREYLAMI Each Way 28/1

The Cambridgeshire is a 9f Handicap for horses rated 0-109
and there is a long history to this race. The Maximum field
of 35 runners makes it a very hard race but there are a lot of good statistics in the race
to narrow the field down. All my trends in the race are given.
You may wish to apply them all yourselves and come up with a different conclusion.
I have tightened the statistics to the point where they are so tough for a horse to pass
that any horses that fail one trend would still be seen as a possible winner.
Its the horses that fail far more than one trend and are consistently coming up
short that I want to oppose. No point writing detailed paragraphs about 100/1
no hopers so I will just narrow the field down.

HORSES  FAILING MULTIPLE ANGLES

STEVIE THUNDER – BENCOOLEN -ELLEMUJIE
GRANSTON – FIGHT CLUB – TARTAN GIGHA
THE CAYTERERS – SMOKEY OAKEY -MARAJAA
KAOLAK – DOCOFTHEBAY -MOYNAHAN
SUPASEUS – GENERAL ELIOTT – KING OLAV
HOWDIGO -  ALFATHAA – NANTON

* SHAVANSky did not do enough last time
* He had a shaky profile anyway
* His recent for is just not good enough to win
* CREDIT SWAP looks weak to me
* Statistically he is not suitable
* On the go too long this season
* His 3 wins in Summer leave him badly handicapped
* Never won above Class 4 before
* He has the worst draw in stall 1
* Claimer ridden he should be well beaten
* HILLVIEW BOY doesnt have enough positives
* He has ran every month since March 2009
* Its not a traditional preperation
* There are not enough positives to overlook any flaws
* I feel the same about KAY GEE  BE as well
* As an exposed 5yo his flaws cant be forgiven
* ALAZEYAB doesnt fit the right profile
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46) and he didnt
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* ALAZEYAB has 10 runs
* He doesnt fit with a past winner well enough
* His form in Pattern Class also weakens his profile
* So to does his inability to place last time
* He probably isnt his owners number 1 anyway
* ALAZEYAB is unlikely to be the one
* THE WHICH DOCTOR isnt out of this at big odds
* I have found 2 reasonably similar winners
* I have found 1 quite similar winners
* What bothers me is he comes from a Class 4 handicap
* No horse in the last 22 years came from this class
* Moving from a 0-82 to a 0-109 is a serious leap
* More so for a horse thats had 17 runs already
* Thats a big problem for me and I oppose him
* WANNABE KING looks wort considering
* He is a 3yo coming here with a W W W record
* He doesnt come from a Grade 1 track
* We know 19 of the 20 winners did that
* He is a 3yo from an 8f handicap
* Horses aged 3 doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* 3 year olds with a penalty were just 1-27
* He just misses out from having a strong profile
* He may find this class from his rating just too much
* Certainly has a chance though
* BRIEF ENCOUNTER isnt dead statistically
* There hasnt been a similar 3yo winner though
* None had pattern form as he does
* They all managed to place last time and he didnt
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46) and he didnt
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* I think there are better options
* BUSHMAN fails far too many trends for me
* Only 1 winner since 1987 ran in a Group race
* He just looks the wrong type for the race
* APPLAUSE is a 3yo filly and all 21 of those lost
* She is very inexperienced and lightly raced this year
* Three runs this year may not be enough for a filly
* All 3yo winners had more runs this year and were male
* They all managed to place last time as well
* She was impressive last time finishing fast
* It was only a Fillies handicap though
* She will be well handicapped but I cant bet her
* She isnt proven statistically and no winners were similar
* SALUTE HIM fails far too many angles
* Exposed with an absence and few runs this year
* I couldnt argue a good case for him
* ALMIQDAAD is a lightly raced 3 year old
* He has just 3 runs this year
* All winning 3 year olds had more runs this year
* None had ran in Listed or Group class before either
* His Group race form is a worry
* Only 1 of the last 20 winners had Group race form
* That 1-121 record has to be a worry
* He also has a penalty and just 1-27 overcame that
* ALMIQDAAD is nearly there
* He just does not have as safe a profile as I’d want

P O S S I B L E S

* ROYAL DESTINATION was well beaten last time
* We know horses well beaten last time are awful
* However last years winner was the only horse to win
* That winner was very similar to ROYAL DESTINATION
* He was lightly raced and aged 4 as well
* He came from the same Newbury Handicap as well
* Last years winner had topweight in the Newbury race
* ROYAL DESTINATION also had topweight
* Whilst last years winner was hampered he wasnt
* ROYAL DESTINATION shaped like he needed that race
* It may be that he needs 1 more run
* His trainer has 3 in the race and he looks the 2nd string
* ROYAL DESTINATION has a chance but doubts remain
* TRYST has had 4 career starts
* That makes him less experienced than all past winners
* Horses with under 5 runs were 0-14
* The best they managed was a 3rd and 4th place
* TRYST has won just 1 race
* 19 of the last 20 winners had won more races
* All 4 year old winners had at least 2 career wins
* Another problem is so few come via non handicaps
* He is nearly there but he doesnt match a past winner
* SIRVINO has a long 84 day absence
* The 3 winners that did that were all aged 4
* They all had under 13 career runs
* SIRVINO survives that problem
* He is not dissimilar to Pasternak
* He also won this after winning the Magnet Cup
* Horses aged 4 with 9-12 runs and 10 weeks off were 2-3
* You can argue he has more runs this year than the others
* Statistically he isnt too bad but I am a bit worried
* He has risen 36lbs in the weights this season
* He started the year off 65 and thats hardly a sign of class
* I doubt many past winners started the year off 65
* Winning off 101 with a long absence isnt easy
* SIRVINO is a possible but it wont be easy
* SWOP was 3rd in last years race
* He did that from a very poor draw
* He also came from last place after half way
* SWOP deserves maximum respect
* He does not fail any of my statistics
* Few other horses in this race can say the same
* I thought he really caught the eye last time
* I would like a few lbs less weight
* We havent had a winner his age carry so much weight
* Thats a worry but he looks a serious runner
* CHARM SCHOOL has a good profile
* He looks strong statistically from the best trial race
* Some question whether 9f will be far enough
* I wouldnt criticise him on that point
* Not with his profile solid in other areas

S E L E C T I O N

GREYLAMI  25/1 – 33/1

Each Way

This has been a Cambridgeshire with very few significant
gambles and it’s clear there isnt one outstanding candidate
as the market suggests. There are several potential winners
but they all have something or other to overcome. I do like
SWOP a lot but the weight will be very hard to carry and I
didnt think he would give 15lbs to GREYLAMI.

GREYLAMI has just beaten TRYST . I think he can again.
SIRVINO is a danger but you have a good chance of beating
any horse with an absence of 12 weeks. CHARM SCHOOL
has a solid chance but he has not made any big waves in the market and doesnt come
without question marks. I’m happy GREYLAMI has a great each way chance at a big price.
He does have some issues statistically but that doesnt worry me.

Statistically I have set the bar so high that everything will fail angles in this race and I
have made them as demanding as I can. I would be happier if he has 1 less run and 1
less run this year but I can live with that. Statistically I respect him and he resembles the
1996 winner Clifton Fox closely. Whilst he comes from a conditions race and I would
prefer a handicap that did not stop another very similar type in Blue Bajan finishing
second in 2006 from the same race with a very similar profile. I dont see any strong
reasons  why he cant go very close in this race with just 8st 5lbs.

He showed a nice turn of foot last time and would have won
had he not been mugged on the line. I think you want a horse conditioned at 10f  and
every recent winner had proven form over further than 9f. He has won in a big field like
almost all recent winners. It may be something less progressive beats him but there is
no guarantee of that as most of the lighter raced horses have flaws and he is fit and
in form with a recent run and gets weight from almost anything that matters in the race
and I think he should go very well.

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CAMBRIDGESHIRE STATISTICS

* There has been 20 renewals Since 1989
* Horses from 3yo handicaps are only 1-45 in 20 years
* Horses with Less than 5 career starts 0-10
* Horses with between 5 and 12 career races are best
* Only 4 of the last 19 winners were exposed
* Those with over 21 career starts were 4-234
* Horses with 21 + runs were weak in these areas
* Exposed horses with under 7 runs that season were 0-56
* Exposed horses aged 4 (1-56) aged 5 (0-67)
* Exposed horses aged 7 or more (0-49)
* Exposed horses with a 32 + days absence are 0-40
* Exposed horses that are female are 0-27
* Exposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are 0-113
* Exposed horses that have penalties (1-24)
* Exposed horses not 1st or 2nd last time were 1-196
* Exposed horses coming from non handicaps are 0-41
* Exposed horses with 9st or more are 1-75
* Horses with 13 + Career races had a 6-422 record
* Horses with 13 + runs and less than 5 this year were 0-57
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 3 are 0-35
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 5 are 0-106
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 3-4-5 are just 2-305
* Those in the 2-305 record with Pattern class form 0-119
* Both that did it had very light weights 8st 2lbs or less
* Horses with 13 + runs with Group 1-Group 2 form are 0-40
* Horses with 13 + runs without a run in a month are 0-95
* Horses with 13 + runs beaten 6 + lengths last time are 0-190
* Horses with 9 or more runs this season are appalling (1-161)
* Horses with 1-2-3-4 runs this season all had under 13 runs
* None had ran in Listed or Group class before (0-45)
* 19 of the last 20 winners came from a Grade 1 track
* 5 Year Olds have a 0-119 record – but not many were fancied
* Horses aged 8 or more have never won (0-21)
* All 3 year old had a 6-190 record
* They all had between 5 and 12 career starts
* Those with less (0-9) and more (0-35)
* All 3 year old winners had at least 4 runs that year
* All 3 year old winners lacked any headgear
* No 3 year old winners had ran in Listed-Group class before (0-43)
* All 3 year old winners were Male
* All 3 year old winners with a penalty had a 1-27 record
* All 3 year old winners were 1st 2nd 3rd last time out (others 0-78)
* All 3 year old winners came from a Class 3 or Class 2 race
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46)
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* 4 year old winners that had 5-12 starts had a 6-65 record
* 4 year old winners that had 13 or more runs had a weak 2-164 record
* Both were very lightweighted horses
* 4 year olds who ran in Listed or Group class before are 0-85
* All 4 year old winners lacked any headgear
* All 4 year old winners ridden by a claimer are 0-49
* All 4 year old winners not 1-2-3-4 last time are 1-25
* All 4 year old winners came from handicaps
* All 4 year old winners had at least 2 career wins
* Horses aged 6 or 7 won the race 5 times in the last 20 years
* Horses aged 6 or 7 all had at least 5 runs that season
* All 4 winners aged 6 or 7 ran within the previous 3 weeks
* Horses that ran in listed or group class before were 3-239
* None ran in Group 1 (0-38) or Group 2 before (0-20)
* Since 1993 they had a 1-199 record
* No horse with Pattern form had under 13 runs (0-55)
* None had under 5 runs this season (0-49)
* Horses aged 3-4-5 with listed or group class form are 0-171
* Horses with listed or group class form were all male
* They all came via handicaps
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were only 1-134
* Horses with pattern form with under 5 wins were 0-160
* Horses with pattern form and 9st 5lbs or more were 0-48
* Horses aged 5 or more are best running within 3 weeks
* Those that were absent over 3 weeks were 1-132
* If a horse has over a Months absence it may be a certain type
* It should have under 13 runs (others 0-95)
* It should have under 6 runs this season (others 0-82)
* It will have ran in Class 2 or no higher
* Horses absent a Monththat ran in Listed-Group class before are 0-62
* Female horses won 3 renewals since 1987
* All 3 had between 5-20 runs and aged 4 or more
* They all carried 8st 8lbs or less
* 7lbs claimers are 0-32

* Horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are appalling (1-257)
* That winner was last year though
* Horses from the 9f handicap at Goodwood recently are 0-30
* Horses that had not won in their last 6 races are just 1-198
* Horses from Listed Class last time had a 0-34 record
* Horses from Class 4 or lower had a 0-72 record
* Horses dropping in trip from 10.5f or more are 0-32
* Horses coming from a Conditions race are just 1-115
* Horses with 2-7 Career wins won 19 of the 20
* Horses with 9st 7lbs or more (1-48) underperform
* Most winners had been laid out for the race.
* Usually they had not started their season until June
* Either that or they had a 6 week break at some stage

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N E W B U R Y

It’s not a pleasant card. Ground will be soft. I will start with the HACKWOOD Stakes at 2.20pm. Its a race where young horses have dominated. Horses aged 3 have won 22 of the last 31 races and that shows how well they have done. That could all change on soft ground. My own thoughts here were WAR ARTIST is a vulnerable horse despite top rated. I wouldnt trust James Eustace to get a 7 year old with a 372 day absence fit on soft ground and whilst he may well win I’d be looking for an each way bet against him. I would ignore the 5f trip jumpers like Madame Trop Vite,
Matsunosuke . FESTOSO isnt for me as a filly. Much will depend on the ground. Many of these are clearly much better on faster ground. PRIME DEFENDER looks a faster ground type. I didnt like EDGE CLOSER. I think there are Three interesting runners. HIGH YIELD comes via 6f handicaps and only two of the last 17 winners did that but one came from the Wokingham like he does and he has a good chance. ICELANDIC comes from a 5f race but that was yesterday and its just possible he has a fitness edge and I wouldnt rule him out much as his chance is imposible to judge and comes with plenty of risk.The strongest runner statistically for me is DONCASTER ROVER. He is a lightly raced 3yo thats just won the same Haydock Conditions race as similar types won before they won this in 2003 and 2005. I gave him a great chance but like you would not be sure he handles soft. DONCASTER ROVER looks a good price and can win if he handles soft.

I havent got a clue what to make of the Fillies Handicap at 2.50. First of all there has only been 1 Fillies Handicap in July in this Class so we have no similar races to draw stats from. Secondly I wouldnt have a clue how to rate COSMOPOLITAN who comes from a Group 1 race into a Handicap. All I can tell you is that I looked at every Fillies handicap in the last 20 years anywhere and
in any class and horses that dropped from Group 1 or Group 2 races were 0-23 and it hasnt happened yet. Personally I would oppose her. I would take out anything with 1 run this year as well. Bottom line is I dont have the angles.

NEWBURY 3.55

WEATHERBYS SUPER SPRINT(CLASS 2)(2yo) 5f34y

11/4 Monsieur Chevalier, 6/1 Above Limits, 6/1 Shamandar
16/1 Here Now And Why, 16/1 Palisades Park 16/1 Reach For
The Sky, 20/1 Archers Road, 20/1 Chocolate Cookie, 20/1 Red Avalanche, 20/1 Star Rover, 25/1 Desert Auction 25/1 Eternal Instinct, 33/1 Existentialist, 33/1 Reddy To Star 33/1 Social Grace, 40/1 Itsthursdayalready 50/1 Kirsty’s Boy, 50/1 Leleyf, 50/1 Strike Shot, 66/1 Blushing 100/1 French Connexion

The Super Sprint is now on its 17th year. On the one
hand you have some excellent stats in the race. On the
other hand you have an impossible looking race. What
I want to do this year is use the same angles that I used
last year as they shortlisted the winner as well as the
2nd and 4th much as I chose the wrong one ! I will use
the same format as last year and end with a shortlist.

* Newbury has had 17 renewals of the Super Sprint
* Horses at 25/1 and more are 1-178
* No past winner had 6 or more career starts
* You ideally want a horse thats ran in Class 3 or higher
* Horses that hadn’t done that with 3 + runs were 0-85
* Males that hadn’t done that  were 0-70
* Horses that hadn’t done that from 6f were 0-48
* Horses that hadnt done thatfrom novice races were 0-33
* Fillies are best and lead 12 wins to 5
* Males that had just under 3 runs were 0-38
* Males that came from 2yo maidens had a 0-58 record
* No past winner came from Nurseries
* Horses that had penalties didnrt score well but won last years
* Horses that came from maidens with 3 or more runs were 0-62
* Horses that came from conditions races in class 4 or lower were 0-64
* Horses that were 2nd or 3rd last time out struggled (1-97)
* Horses with 4 + runs that didnt come from a Group race were 0-129
* No horse was beaten over 10 lengths over 5f last time
* I have 2 horses on my shortlist
* MONSIEUR CHEVALIER – ABOVE LIMITS
* The ground and penalty worries me for MONSIEUR CHEVALIER
* I just prefer ABOVE LIMITS

I thought the handicap at 4.30 was too hard. I would have opposed all the exposed horses that were well beaten over 12f last time or that were aged 7 or more doing this and Capable Guest , Heron Bay and Cheshire Prince look weak because of that. I wouldnt want any horse with under 2 runs that year so Monreale and JASER are out. I didnt fancy Kevkat. I looked at exposed horses that lost by over
10 lengths last time. When having under 5 runs that year they had a 0-74 record and when running over 9f or less a 1-60 record so as FINAL VERSE fails both he is out as well. I would only shortlist 4 horses in Bugaku – King Charles -Safari Sunup -Dar Es Salaam and forced to pick the lightly raced Stoute improver BUGAKU appeals.

The Staying Handicap that ends Newburys card should go to one of the fancied runners. Horses with absences are poor in these 2m races. ABSOLUT POWER -WINGED D´ARGENT have been off too long. CALCULATING isnt good enough on grass. I like fillies that come from winning and the lighter raced the better so I am making ISABELONABICYCLE a positive. SWORDSMAN also  has to be one with a very recent run. I would concerntrate on these.
best wishes

Guy

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