Horse Racing Stats
Just a snippet from the full message from www.RacingTrends.co.uk
———–
Value horses – horses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 9 years would have shown good profits in the long term:
Sign of the Cross (7.50 Wolverhampton)
Draw section –
Ripon 5f (qualifying race today at 2.55) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f there have been 15 races in the past four seasons. Many of these races have seen the field split into two groups as the ground nearer to each rail is quicker than the centre of the course. This fact is demonstrated by the fact that 7 of the 16 winners were drawn in either the two lowest, or two highest stalls. Hence there should be an advantage to horses drawn 1, 2, 17 and 18. My feeling is that low may well have the edge on the likely fast ground.
Leicester 6f (qualifying race today at 1.55) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):
bottom third of the draw 39.3% middle third of the draw 35.7% top third of the draw 25%
High draws have been at a slight disadvantage but it is not too significant.
Haydock 5f (qualifying race today at 6.10) – in handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):
bottom third of the draw 32.1% middle third of the draw 32.1% top third of the draw 35.7%
A very even playing field with no draw advantage.
Haydock 1m (qualifying races today at 7.10 and 8.10) – in handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):
bottom third of the draw 33.3% middle third of the draw 33.3% top third of the draw 33.3%
Amazingly the 51 races have been won equally (17 each) by the three sections of the draw. Even more amazingly the placed stats are virtually identical too!
Horses that ran well against a draw bias recently (NEW SECTION): Nisaal (1.00 Sandown) – first home on the stands side LTO when 4th Comptonspirit (2.55 Ripon) – best of horses that raced towards the far side at Redcar LTO when 2nd
POOR VALUE FAVOURITE – none
Trainer section
Positive trainer stats: please note certain stats will be repeated each day for several horses. It is simply a way of illustrating the type of horse a particular trainer has done consistently well with in the past.
FLAT
Mount Hermon (1:00 Sandown) – H Morrison – April to June – off the track for 6 months+ in handicaps; SR 18.8% ROI +70%
Royal Desert (2:30 Leicester)*** – M Channon – 2yo maidens March to May – top 3 in the betting; SR 29.8% ROI +12.8% *** currently 14/1 and joint 5th in the betting
Holberg (3:05 Leicester) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% roi +22.7%
Racer Forever (3:40 Leicester) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; roi +37.2%;
Virtual (3:45 Sandown) John Gosden – male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 22.7%; roi +22.7%
Pipedreamer (4:15 Sandown) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 28.3%; roi +37.2%;
Victorian Art (4:35 Ripon)*** – M Magnusson – all runners top 3 in betting SR 29% ROI +48% *** Non runner
Cosimo (4:45Leicester) – Sir Michael Stoute – 3yos in maiden races off track for 6 months+ SR 32% roi +20%
Serious Impact (4:45Leicester) – John Gosden – male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 22.7%; roi +22.7%
Signaller (5:10 Ripon) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% roi +22.7%
Matraash (7:40 Haydock) – Mark Johnston – horses returning from break of 6 months+ running in a maiden SR 24.6% roi +27.8%
Frosted (8:50Wolverhampton) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; roi +37.2%
Ballet Dancer (8:50 Wolverhampton) – M jarvis – horses off the track for more than 6 months running in a maiden race SR 29%; roi +75%
NH
Winged Arrow (3:20 Market Rasen) J O’ Neill handicap hurdles aged 4 to 7 if priced 8/1 or shorter – SR 25% win & pl 53%; roi 20% **** – currently priced 6/1
Trainer Course Stats
Sandown – All Races (best strike rates)
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | SR | Profit | ROI |
| Sir M Prescott | 11 | 34 | 32.4% | +£18.00 | +52.9% |
| J Given | 6 | 24 | 25.0% | +£29.50 | +122.9% |
| H Cecil | 17 | 76 | 22.4% | -£8.66 | -11.4% |
| S Williams | 8 | 36 | 22.2% | +£34.13 | +94.8% |
| Sir M Stoute | 54 | 252 | 21.4% | -£5.28 | -2.1% |
| J Gosden | 35 | 175 | 20.0% | -£22.93 | -13.1% |
| J Noseda | 11 | 55 | 20.0% | -£8.04 | -14.6% |
| M Jarvis | 25 | 128 | 19.5% | +£21.96 | +17.2% |
| A O’Brien | 4 | 21 | 19.0% | +£7.03 | +33.5% |
| N Callaghan | 9 | 50 | 18.0% | +£0.12 | +0.2% |
| M Johnston | 37 | 207 | 17.9% | +£7.54 | +3.6% |
| C Wall | 12 | 67 | 17.9% | +£30.25 | +45.1% |
| S Bin Suroor | 15 | 87 | 17.2% | -£7.57 | -8.7% |
Ripon – All Races (best strike rates)
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | SR | Profit | ROI |
| H Cecil | 11 | 31 | 35.5% | +£7.25 | +23.4% |
| M Jarvis | 14 | 43 | 32.6% | +£8.45 | +19.7% |
| M Tregoning | 7 | 22 | 31.8% | +£3.29 | +15% |
| B Hills | 34 | 109 | 31.2% | +£21.05 | +19.3% |
| J Gosden | 10 | 37 | 27% | -£9.56 | -25.8% |
| J Dunlop | 21 | 78 | 26.9% | -£11.25 | -14.4% |
| Sir M Stoute | 13 | 54 | 24.1% | -£19.76 | -36.6% |
| T Tate | 13 | 58 | 22.4% | +£99.08 | +170.8% |
| P Cole | 5 | 23 | 21.7% | +£9.81 | +42.6% |
| J Fanshawe | 8 | 38 | 21.1% | -£5.70 | -15% |
| M Tompkins | 9 | 46 | 19.6% | +£16.5 | +35.9% |
| R Hannon | 5 | 26 | 19.2% | +£4.57 | +17.6% |
| C Brittain | 6 | 32 | 18.8% | +£16.5 | +51.6% |
Haydock – All Races (best strike rates)
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | SR | Profit | ROI |
| H Cecil | 15 | 49 | 30.6% | +£12.45 | +25.4% |
| M Jarvis | 49 | 175 | 28.0% | +£69.25 | +39.6% |
| Sir M Stoute | 23 | 90 | 25.6% | +£13.51 | +15.0% |
| Sir M Prescott | 14 | 56 | 25.0% | +£0.69 | +1.2% |
| M Tregoning | 8 | 33 | 24.2% | +£18.08 | +54.8% |
| W Haggas | 22 | 94 | 23.4% | +£25.69 | +27.3% |
| Mrs A Duffield | 8 | 36 | 22.2% | +£2.75 | +7.6% |
| L Cumani | 22 | 104 | 21.2% | +£10.54 | +10.1% |
| Mrs L Stubbs | 7 | 33 | 21.2% | +£20.00 | +60.6% |
| M Quinlan | 4 | 20 | 20.0% | +£8.16 | +40.8% |
Leicester – All Races (best strike rates)
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | SR | Profit | ROI |
| S Bin Suroor | 19 | 54 | 35.2% | -£3.90 | -7.2% |
| J Noseda | 8 | 24 | 33.3% | +£5.36 | +22.3% |
| P Chapple-Hyam | 12 | 40 | 30.0% | +£77.04 | +192.6% |
| M Tregoning | 10 | 35 | 28.6% | +£43.86 | +125.3% |
| H Cecil | 20 | 79 | 25.3% | +£18.15 | +23.0% |
| L Cumani | 21 | 97 | 21.6% | +£20.80 | +21.4% |
| J Bethell | 10 | 48 | 20.8% | +£31.50 | +65.6% |
| J Fanshawe | 23 | 114 | 20.2% | +£24.83 | +21.8% |
HOT TRAINERS (trainers who are currently in good form) – J.Gosden, W. Swinburn, B Hills, J Boyle, H Cecil, P Chappell-Hyam, P Evans, T Dascombe, R Fahey, T Barron
Horses with decent course records – none
Strong sire stats –
Lewyn (5.40 Haydock) – Exceed and Excel 2yos over 5f SR 24%
Crown (5.40 Haydock) – Royal Applause 2yos in 5f maidens class 5 or lower SR 22.5%; ROI +35%
For two other horses today, keep an eye on the going / weather. In the unlikely event the going goes soft or heavy at Leicester or Sandown, two horses are likely to run well due to solid sire stats in the mud:
Regal Parade (3.40 Leicester) ***** ONLY ON SOFT/HEAVY
Virtual (3.45 Sandown) ***** ONLY ON SOFT/HEAVY Negative Sire stats –
Kate Skate (5.40 Haydock) – Poor sire stat – Mark of Esteem 2yo non handicaps over 5f SR 3.3% ROI loss -71.3%
Pace information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)
Ripon 5f (2.55) Leaders 2.5 Prominent / chased leaders 1.1 Hold up / behind 0.45 Front runners have an advantage. Hold up horses are at a big disadvantage.
Most likely front runners drawn low are Mr Wolf (drawn 1); Nomoreblondes (drawn 3); most likely front runner drawn high is Speedy Senorita (drawn 17)
Horses noted 2 or more sections – None (unless the going goes soft/heavy then VIRTUAL in the 3.45 Sandown would qualify under 2 sections)
Racing Trends
Saturday, 25-Apr-2009