The below is a newish section fromThe Mathematician’s very comprehensive daily racing message.

He calls it the Strongest Statisic Today

In short it points to something interesting found

through his research.

Some days it may point to a horse to think about backing.

Other days it may be a strong stat that could lead you to opposing a short priced favourite.

=====================

S t r o n g e s t   S t a t i s t i c  T o d a y

Uttoxeter 2.10

VICTORIA ROSE 10/1

Another Positive Statistic today. I dont expect her
to win rated lower than most of her rivals but she is
a double figure price and comes out curiously well so
I wouldnt put anyone off having a small interest bet.

* All Mares Novice Chases run in January
* Horses from Handicap Hurdles
* Between 7 and 20 career starts
* Running over 19f or more last time
* Between 1 and 4 runs that season
* There were 8 horses with that profile
* They finished W 2 W W W W W W
* VICTORIA ROSE  shares that profile

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

PS price has come in a  bit since Mathematician Members got this earlier today. Now best priced 9/1 at VC

.

The following is a snippet from today’s message from Big Mike.
Big Mike is an ex accountant who know lieks to use his knowledge of numbers to take cash of the bookmakers.

His followers get daily messages with an array of strategic bets on both horse racing & sport.
The following snippet I thought posting up here as it is an educational piece you can learn from showing you how to hedge an each way double.

More from Big Mike at ===> BIG MIKE BETTING

=========================================

Hedging An Each Way Double

The best way of showing how to play a hedge is with an actual example.

AWESOME FOURSOME

4 x £4 ew doubles

Tarn Hows 5/2 & Real Milan 8/1 12.05 Uttoxeter
with Remix 7/2 & Lady Lyricist 12/1 350 Wolves

Stakes of £40 at Bet365 ‘Best Odds’

In the first race Real Milan managed to win at 12/1 and Tarn Hows was
placed at 5/2.

So in effect because of the price of the winner in the first race we had
£52 running on the win side of both Lady Lyricist and also Remix.

I emailed all members as we had to protect this vast windfall. Neither of
the two horses were expected to win so we had to retrieve something in
order to live another day.

The first thing to do is to work out how much would be won if either of the
doubles would have landed. At 7/2 the Remix double would have produced app
£180 and if Lady Lyricist had obliged we were talking well over £1,000.

So we had plenty of oil in the tank. My initial suggestion was to retrieve
stakes at least by laying £4 pre start on each horse back to Betfair. I
then suggested placing mines (lays in running) and in fairness to Remix a
good return was made as the horse was laid down to 2.02 on the win site.
Lady Lyricist was last seen in the middle of Wolverhampton at 9pm last
night so nothing back from her save the initial £4 lay.

On the place site it was a different kettle of fish as Remix – at 7/2 – in
effect gave 1.7 return if placed yet was layable at 1.28 before the start.
Similarly Lady Lyricist at 28/1 would be the equivalent of 6.6 on the place
site yet again layable at a considerable advantage at 3.2. At a stroke both
horses could have been laid at least for £26 (Half the gross bet) and the
cost would have been app £7 on Remix and just over £70 on Lady Lyricist. It
may seem a lot to hedge but consider that the place return if successful
from Remix would have been £35+ and on LL the place return at SP would have
been £250+ – so there was much to save.

Always remember that these huge doubles are rarely going to land – so
evasive action is a must.

Horses On Their First Run In A Handicap Race

Punters are often trying to spot a big sting or a planned gamble. A classic perception is that some horses are intentionally run badly in order to give them a very lenient first handicap mark.

The stats show however that betting every horse on it’s first handicap run is a very fast track route to the poor house.

However NOT all first time handicap runners are a bad bet. With some research and number crunching it is possible to identify profitable angles for backers or alternately sources of good lays for Betfair.

Dave Renham has crunched several years of racing history and written it all up in a couple of free to view articles.

Take a look here

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Doncaster favourites

Goodwood favourites

Hamilton favourites

Lingfield favourites

Newmarket favourites

Thirsk favourites

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

==================================================

This information was taken from the excellent RacingTrends Service.

Shown above is actually just a small portion of the Saturday message from RacingTrends. In addition to horse racing statistics RacingTrends also provide long term profitable systematic lays selections which are a bit more akin to a normal tipping service.

HINT: RacingTrends  will on occasion offer a free trial to sports betting blog subscribers. Why not Register Here for Free so you know when such a deal is available.

The below was provided  by Secret Betting Club themselves so its possible more of an advert than a review.

SBC however is a site I can fully vouch for and I know I myself really look forward to their regular tipster reports.

They are a genuine and knowlegable bunch who speak in facts and truths.

I am more than happy to highlight them to my readers here.

==================================================================

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Looking At Races Differently Can Make A Profit

When reading articles about analyzing horse racing you will always find the writers saying that you ‘mustn’t follow the crowd’ or to ‘do things differently’ or something similar. They then go on to outline a method that is not particularly different to anything else that you have ever read!

What they are saying is correct. You do want to do things differently. It is by doing things differently that you will find your edge and by finding your edge you will also find your profit.

Over the course of this article I want to plant some seeds for ways of analyzing a race that you may have never of thought of before. It is these ideas that will ultimately help you to look at a horse race differently to everyone else betting on it and find your long-term profit.

All races have different conditions and they also have different types of runners. This is what determines how you should analyse them. There is less point focusing on speed in a race that is 3 miles long, you would be better off focusing on pace and stamina (for example).

I would like to focus on sprint races as it is something I have been teaching quite a lot recently and with increasing all-weather racing I feel that it is going to be something that you can use in the future.

With sprint races we can focus on speed as our analysis. This in itself is not different but there are many ways to look at a horse from a speed perspective. Some of these can include:

Speed class based on speed figures of winners in previous races

Projected speed

Speed ratings

Collateral speed form

Speed improvements

These are just a few possibilities and I can guarantee that out of the list above, speed ratings will be the only one that has a lot of people using it and even with this you can look at the actual speed ratings in different ways to other people.

However the perspective I would like to focus on here is Speed Improvements. It stands to reason that a runner that is improving in speed has every chance of improving its speed in the race it is about to run.

All you now need to do is simply to find out if the horse has the required speed to compete in the race to make your final selections, but I am getting ahead of myself. Let me go back a bit and investigate how I do this.

First of all I look at each runners last 8 speed figures. I am looking for horses who have a general trend of improvement. This does not mean that I expect them to increase in every single race but that the overall trend of the last 8 races is upwards.

You are now already ahead of most punters because you are focusing on runners who have shown a recent improvement rather than just narrowing your search down to those with the highest figure. A horse that has shown recent improvement would have every reason to continue this trend.

Speed figures, although normally adjusted for these factors, can change for a runner depending on the distance and going. This makes it better for us just to consider the last 8 races that match a similar distance and going condition as the race we are analyzing.

Already in the last 2 paragraphs you have learned how you can identify runners that are improving over the same conditions as the race you are analyzing in a matter of minutes. This on its own is incredibly powerful and can result in profits on its own. However we want to target our selections even more accurately.

We have a shortlist of runners that are improving in speed over the distance and going of todays race. It makes sense to now look at whether or not these runners are fast enough to win the race. While they may be improving it is no use if they do not have the raw speed to win.

Assessing the raw speed of a horse can be very difficult and, contrary to popular belief, cannot be done by just looking for the runner with the highest speed figure. Just using the highest speed figure or the average speed figures of all runners does not work because no rating is 100% accurate. To get around this we use something called confidence intervals. A confidence interval will allow you to assess, with a 90% confidence, the likelihood of a speed rating being between a high and low figure. The actual figure recorded will sit in the middle of these two numbers.

We calculate this figure by:

1)      Calculate the average of the last 8 speed figures

2)      Calculate the standard deviation for these figures

3)      Calculate the standard error for these figures using the result of step 2

4)      Multiply the standard error from step 3 by 1.397

5)      For the lower confidence level subtract the result of step 4 to each of your eight speed figures

6)      For the upper confidence level add the result of step 4 to each of your eight speed figures

For each of your speed ratings from the last eight races you will now have 3 figures. The lower confidence level, the speed rating and the upper confidence level.

How does this help us?

This helps us because we now know, with a 90% confidence, that the slowest the horse ran was the lowest figure and the fastest the horse ran is the highest figure. If we work this out for each of our 8 past speed ratings we can begin to see which of our selections actually have the speed to win the race.

You do this by following these rules:

Find the winner with the highest speed figure in the last 8 races.

Record the lower confidence interval for this speed figure.

Make sure that all of our selections have had a race in their last 8 races where the highest confidence interval is above this figure.

That’s it! Just three simple steps and you have made sure that all your runners actually have the speed to win the race.

What have we actually achieved?

By looking at races from a slightly different perspective we have managed to shortlist the runners that have been improving on the current conditions of the race. We have then narrowed our shortlist down into the final selections by only keeping those that have shown they have the speed to win using a statistical approach.

To make this even easier the Race Advisor features RA Graphs which displays all the information you need to find these selections in easy to read graphs provided for racing every single day.

Michael Wilding
www.RaceAdvisor.co.uk

Author Bio

The Race Advisor was started by Michael Wilding and is aimed at the new and semi-experienced bettor.
We are the leading online resource for learning how to bet profitably providing unique features that are
unavailable elsewhere. There are also over 200 articles on the site looking at different sports and how to profit from them.

A couple of lays today for you courtesy of RacingTrends

3:45 Newm – Group Therapy
3:45 Newm -  Borderlescott

Not super short these two at about 8/1 and 15/1 to win.

Note however the historic research spreadsheet available at the link below.

Key points to note might be

- Use of maximum price caps as part of your strategy.

- The potential to use fixed liability staking so a rougue big winner does little damage to bank.

- The long term profability of these horses  both laying the win and also laying  them to place.

Lay Sreadsheet Staking Plans

The below comes from Dave over at Racing Trends.

Stats are based on ten years historical data.

You can read more from Dave at this link  Horse Racing Blog

Saturday

1.45 John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 2m4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

2.15 Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

2.50 John Smith’s Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

3.25 John Smith’s Handicap Chase 3m 1f

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

4.55 John Smith’s Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 2m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

5.30 Champion Standard National Hunt Flat Race 2m 1f

The race was not run in 2007 so I have gone back an extra year.

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

National Hunt Horse Racing Statistics

As Michael Caine would say ..”not a lot of people know that”

Knowing more than most is a great position to be in when making betting decissions.

The info below is a snippet from todays message from Dave Renham’s RacingTrends Service.

It is a mere snippet.

His full message coantains much much more about favourite stats, trainer stats and draw bias etc.

RacignTrends is well worth a look if you are thinking punter who likes to do your own thing instead of blindly following tips. You will find Dave’s research a  great aid giving you racing insights most others do not have access to.

——————————————–

POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

4.30    Ayr – King Sandor **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

1.20    Newbury – Oasis Knight: N Henderson – hurdle races; off track for 6 months or more; class 2 or lower; SR 34% ROI +46% (win & pl 54%)

2.25    Newbury – Riverside Theatre **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

3.35    Newbury – Tiger O’toole **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

2.40    Warwick – Kilmurry **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

3.45    Warwick – Alfie Sherrin **: J O’Neill – novice/beginner chases must be priced 8/1 or shorter; NOT Grade 1 tracks SR 31% ROI +19% (win & pl 52%)

4.55    Warwick – Dark Shadow: N Henderson – 4yos on debut SR 36% ROI +36% (win & pl 57%)

4.55    Warwick – Theatre Guide **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

NEGATIVE STATS -

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

5.05    Ayr – Glengap: Poor Sire Stats – Needle Gun in hurdles races; SR 4% ROI -74% (win & pl 21%)

4.05    Newbury – Jokers Legacy **: Poor Trainer Stat – T Vaughan – horses wearing headgear; must be 3rd or bigger in the betting; SR 5% ROI -64% (win & pl 20%)

4.40    Newbury – Star Neuville **: Poor jockey stat – A Mc Coy in bumpers; horses MUST BE priced 5/1 or bigger SR 4% ROI -70% (win & pl 19%)

PunterProfits is a great site for thinking punters who appreciate the benefits of having lots of racing research work done for them.

Dave Renham has knocked up a few words below highlighting some of
the key things going on in the full member area now.

PS Note info at the bottom about the Christmas sale

—————————————————————————-

PunterProfits is an on-line betting
community where punters share racing systems, betting ideas, tips, research
and the like. The content is mainly horse racing, but football does get an airing,
as does greyhound racing and other sports.

At first glance the
website may look a little over-whelming, as there is so many options
and places to check out. However, it is fairly straight-forward once
you get your bearings as essentially it is a forum with numerous threads.
The forum is split in different sections – the busiest two are ‘Racing-
Daily Tips’ and ‘Racing – Systems, Ratings’. These two sections
have several threads that are on-going and updated each day. Most members
follow threads that suit their betting style, as well as following the
more profitable ones!

One of the impressive
aspects about the threads on PunterProfits is how often big priced winners
are found. For example:

25/11/2010 – on the
aw pacey thread Abulharith was tipped up going on to win at 50/1
and paying a massive 88.5 Betfair SP;

28/10/2010 – on the
October trainers thread Educated Evans was a selection winning at
a huge 66/1 and paying roughly double that Betfair SP at 132.47. This
horse was also flagged up on the NH Trainer Report thread.

9/10/2010 – on the
Pacey thread Tres Coronas won at 33/1 and paid a massive 86.49 on
Betfair SP;

8/10/2010 – on the
2 system to trial thread No Supper won at 33/1 (BSP 49.18)

30/9/2010 – on the

Sam Specials thread Dance and Dance won at 33/1 (BSP 50.0)

28/9/2010 – on the
Draw Biases thread, a tricast was landed producing a profit of £842.30
thanks to the 2^nd and 3^rd horses being priced
at 25/1 and 18/1 respectively. The bet was equivalent to a 36/1 winner.

30/7/2010 – on the
Sam Specials thread Joseph Henry was advised at 40/1 and won (SP
was 28/1 and BSP 46.54).

7/7/2010 – on the
Sam Specials thread Crown won at 50/1 paying 61.38 BSP.

21/6/2010 – on the Market Bias system

thread there was an incredible double with Blue
Aura winning at 25/1 (BSP 31.61) and half an hour later The Jailer winning
at 66/1 (BSP 94.57).

14/5/2010 – on the
Market Bias system thread Ginger Ted won at 40/1 paying a huge 107.53
Betfair SP.

Several big priced
winners show that these are not just flashes in the pan. One aspect
of betting that we encourage at PunterProfits is the need to find VALUE.
To make regular profits from betting there is not one single method
that works, but getting value about your selections is key. We emphasise
the need to use early prices and/or Betfair to enhance profits. As you
will see from the Betfair SPs above, there is a huge advantage to using
Betfair SP especially on big priced runners.

Let me now look at
some of the threads in the full member’s area at PunterProfits:

Terrys Lays

This thread has been our most
successful laying thread since it was launched in July 2007. To date profits
stand at £16,456 to £100 per lay; even at just £20 per lay profits stand at
an impressive £3291.20. The method revolves about laying Racing Post forecast
favourites and has made a profit in each of the four years we have been running
it. This year’s profit stands at about £5000 to £100 per lay.

Southwell breeding thread

This thread revolves
around the fact that Southwell favours certain horses that are influenced
in their pedigree by American breeding. This had been running since
January 2010 and after 90 selections profits stand at +33.62pts to SP;
39.89pts to BSP. Hence £20 per selection at BSP would have yielded
a profit of £797.80. Selections occur mainly in the winter months as
this is when the majority of all weather meetings at Southwell take
place.

Sam’s Specials

This thread started
on June 10^th 2010 and soon established itself as one of the
threads to follow. Sam looks at a variety of strong statistics each
day from which he makes his selections. By the end of November profits
stood at an impressive +192.74pts to advised prices; +153.16 using Betfair
SP at level stakes. At £20 per selection profits to advised prices
stand at a highly impressive £3854.80. No wonder he has a huge following.
He is not afraid to put up big prices and he started December in the
same vein as previous months with each way selection Ad Vitam finishing
2^nd at 80/1.

Saintmartin’s
Daily Selections

This thread is one
for those who like high strike rates. He uses a staking system to aid
profits and at the end of November profits stood at +72.23 points. The
staking plan is a sensible one which increases only small amounts after
a loser. A very consistent thread.

Pacey/AW Pacey/NH
Pacey

There are three separate
threads run by the same member all based on the idea of pace bias. All
3 are in profit at the end of November 2010. Often horses are decent
prices and this is definitely a thread where it is SO IMPORTANT to beat
SP because although SP profits are excellent at +44.46pts, BSP profits
stand a huge +155.87pts. At £20 this is a difference in profit of £2228.20
– now that is going to make a big difference to most people.

Going Going Gone

This is a relatively
new thread focusing on horses that has shown strong preference for certain
types of going. To the end of November this thread had nailed 8 winners
from 50 for a profit of +21.33 to SP (BSP profit +34.49). Winners have
been a mixture of prices from 5/6 to 25/1. Looks one to keep a close
eye on.

Market Bias system

This has wound up for the year
as it concentrates on the summer months. However, it will be back in May. In
2010 profits stood at +124.75pts; in 2009 profits were +40.18. At £20 per bet
therefore these two summers would have yielded a fantastic profit of £3298.60.
The selections tend to be at the higher end so it is a thread that requires
patience. However, as you may have noted above this thread had a 66/1 winner
and a 25/1 winner on the same day this year.

NH Trainer Report

This thread notes selections
connected with strong trainer trends that were highlighted in the National
Hunt Trainer Report. The National Hunt Trainer Report is a 122 page
report that you receive for free if you join the full member’s area.
This thread had noted numerous winners in the first couple of months
of the season including a 66/1 winner.

—-

As you can hopefully
see, this forum is surely the best in the business. Numerous threads
banging out winners on a consistent basis – and not just short priced
jollies either! Not only that, members are hugely supportive of each
other which is fantastic.

Not only do you get
some fantastic daily tips/bets, you also get much, much more. This includes:

1. Regular betting articles
– over 130 articles are free to view with virtually every topic you
can think of being addressed. For example favourites, sires, the draw,
pace bias, trainer stats, jockeys stats, recent form, betting in running,
placepots; exotic bets, etc, etc;

2. Free System checking
– if anyone has a system they want to check the results, but do not have the
capability, then Punter Profits is happy to have a look and see if we can check
it over past years for you. This could save you a lot of time not to mention
cash if it turns out to be a dud or if course it might quickly confirm you are
on to a winning approach

3. Regular Research Reports
– detailed racing research reports / booklets are collated and given to members
for FREE. Some reports run in to over 100 pages of detail. Topics explored include
Flat Trainers, NH Trainers, Favourites etc. ( you get to keep these big reports
even if you just upgrade for a short time )

—————————————————————————-

CHRISTMAS SALE

We like drinking beer.

If you give us £3 to buy a pint with, we will provide
you with full membership here for three weeks.

A very fair deal considering you get to keep the big research
reports even if you do not wish to remain a member after that.

Step 1 – Register a free account at
http://www.punterprofits.com

Step 2 – Log In

Step 3- Follow the prominent upgrade link once logged in.

Step 4 – Pay your three quid and you you will be upgraded to
full member status