National Hunt Betting System Tip

A few weeks ago I mentioned a researched methodology from the PunterProfits website called the Nh 500

See long term research phase profits on this post

The live testing phase is producing some very good results and is very roughly £900 ahead to £100 bets at early prices.  That is after about nine bets live testing phase.. so early days but encouraging and backing up the most interesting long term research data.

There are two qualifers today from this methodology and I will post one of them here

Rajnagan 4.55 Cheltenham  you can get 12/1 BOG  boylesport or victor chandler and about 16/1  at Betfair.

NB The research data profits assume backing all on the nose.

Some will be at big prices however and the personal choice will always be there to go each way on such occassion.

If  interested in more information on this Nh 500 national hunt betting methodology go visit PunterProfits.com and ask about it.  It has spawned from their private member area and as of today there is no outer info webpage about it as yet.

 

Betting For Bread

I recall a story from a cousin of mine who got a summer job
in a factory that baked bread.
His job was bagging the bread or feeding bags into a bagging machine.
The exact same type of bread would be put into two different kinds of bag.

One was supermarket own brand as sold for £x
One was a fancier branded bag and that bread sold for £2x

People were not paying more for better bread.
They were paying more for a better bag :)

The same applies in many walks of life.
Tipping no different.
Some tipsters put a lot of effort into glossy presentation and charge a premium.
Strangely many buyers of certain mentality are drawn to higher ticket price items
as they associate cost with quality.

When looking at a Tipster service try and bear the bread story above in mind.
Try and cut through the gloss hype and presentation and instead focus on the facts of numbers.
On the net the opposite is true as well of course.
There are sites and tipsters with good results
who do a bad job of glossy presentation and are available at cheapish fees.

One example of that perhaps is the full member forum at the PunterProfits site.
Within many skilled members post up their own system and tipping threads.
Presentation values may be low but the numbers look very good.

Up untill this week infact visitors to PunterProfits would have had little idea such profitable tipping threads existed there.
Dave however has just put up a new page where he summarises his favoured picks of member submitted tipping threads.
See info at this link ==> Horse Racing Tips

Some very imprerssive profits listed there I am sure you would agree.

One of the upsides PunterProfits members have of course is access to Dave’s regular horse racing research articles and indepth research pdf reports.
They learn from these and the feedback loop goes on to produce some very profitable member threads on the private board there.
The site I guess as well attracts some reasonably clued up experienced punters
who have gone beyond buying into hype and instead see the benefit of having well researched data to help them assess races.
Even the free membership there is worth having as free members get access
to certain research articles that can help educate them on various aspects of horse racing.

Return On Capital Betting Tipsters

It can often be quite tricky to evaluate and compare two different betting tipsters.

The same goes for comparing two systems or methods of your own design you are pondering investing a betting bank on.

Level stakes profits and profit on turnover are two common key measures used for such a thing. Unfortunately alone they fall well short of providing you with a good answer.

Additional insight can be gained once you start to ponder the concept of Return on Capital on your betting bank.

What you really want to know is which tipster or method is better at growing your bank.

Rather than re invent the wheel here I will instead direct you to the article below.

 

==> Return On Capital Betting Tipsters

 

 

Four Simple Horse Racing Systems

Back Fitting Of Horse Racing Systems

The term back fitting when applied to horse racing systems
can be summarised as over engineering selection criteria
putting all logic and common sense aside in order to produce
what on paper looks to be a profitable historic approach.

The big danger in doing so is that non sensible criteria are likely to
lead to future losses even if researched history shows positive results.

Who Can Fall Prey To Back Fitting?

You perhaps :)

If you research your own systems it is important to try and think logically.
Are there good reasons why your selection criteria are likely to produce good results?
Be careful not to use silly criteria just because by random fluke
the monkeys with type writers of historical results scatter happen to show some positive results.

If you buy systems from a system vendor tread carefully too.
Remember the seller is often primarily concerned with making a quick buck from you.
Often what he cares about is putting up a big sexy past profits pound sign in front of your nose.
They want your cash today and care little about whether what they have sold you with a pile of hype
has significant chance of doing well in the future.

For more reading around this general concept of back fitting see
the article below.

==> Four Simple Horse Racing Systems

10 Year Trends For Three Big Races On Saturday

Here are 10 year trends for three big races on Saturday.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 10 renewals. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment, SR for strike rate.
1.50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Chase – 3m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10.
Market: There were 3 winning second favourites, so 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 2 in the market.
Price: Horses priced 9/2  or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners.
LTO winners: 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out. Backing all 22 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £7.05 (ROI +32%).
LTO market position: 8 of the last 10 winners were either favourite or second favourite LTO.
Career starts: Horses with 11 career starts or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. Horses who have raced 3 times or less over fences (previous to this race) have won 8 of the last 10.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 5/1 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 29 qualifiers for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -67.2%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd or worse last time out have produced just 1 winner from 30 for a loss of £26.00 (ROI -86.7%).
GENERAL STATS
Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds

have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced
5 winners from 19 qualifiers (SR 26.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 0 winners
from 18 qualifiers (SR 0%).
Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some strong positive pointers. 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 9/2 or shorter so this is a definite starting point, with favourites given the closest scrutiny as they have won half of the races. LTO winners have an excellent record and look for horses that have had no more than 3 runs over fences as they have won 80% of the races from 55% of the total runners. In terms of age it looks best to focus on those horses aged 7 or younger.

2.45 Haydock – Totescoop6 (Rendlesham) Hurdle– 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites  from 10 qualifiers showing a

profit of £1.48 (ROI +14.8%).
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
Favourites LTO: There have only been 6 horses that started favourite LTO but 4 of them have gone on to win this race.
Class LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest LTO.
Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Haydock.
Breeding: French breds have won 6 of the races from just 20 runners although profits have been modest at £2.48 (ROI +12.2%).
Trainers: Francois Doumen has won the race 3 times since 2002.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Breeding: Just 2 wins from 23 for British bred runners showing losses of £12.00 (ROI -52.2%).
GENERAL STATS
Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 6 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 8 year olds have won 1 from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 9 year olds plus have won 3 from 21 qualifiers (SR 14.3%).
Trends analysis: this is a race where the positive trends tend to dominate. The market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. A decent run LTO has been a plus, as has racing in Grade 1 or 2 company LTO.  French breds have a good record as does trainer Francois Doumen. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

3.00 Ascot – Betfair Chase – 2m 5½f

POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 for a profit of £1.54 (ROI +15.4%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter.
Last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks.
Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton.
Trainers: the Pipe stable won the race four times between 2002 and 2006. No successes however, since David Pipe has taken over from his father.
LTO performance: 8 horses came into the race having failed to complete the course LTO, but 3 have gone onto win.
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 3 miles or more LTO have won 5 of the renewals from just 21 runners for a profit of £5.16 (ROI +24.6%).
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 23.
LTO Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger on their most recent run have provided 0 winners from 24.
GENERAL STATS
Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year

olds have produced 6 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 35.3%); 9 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 10  year olds have produced
1 winner from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%); 11 year olds plus have produced 2 winners
from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%).
Trends analysis: this has been a market driven race in recent years thanks to 5 winning favourites and 9 winners priced 15/2 or shorter. A recent run is not necessarily a plus as 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks. A LTO run at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton has been a positive, while in terms of age 8 year olds have performed way above expectations.

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Soccer Betting Tip

This soccer bet comes from Tammboy who is an ex bookmaker odds compiler.

He now works for the benefit of us punters however over at the football bets website.

The results page there shows how good profits can be made from soccer betting if you know your stuff.

See football results

Anyhow on to one of his recommended bets for today.

Dumbarton vs. East Fife

Dumbarton have fallen apart in their last 4 games, conceding a total of 11 goals.
It’s true that East Fife haven’t been performing that great either but they have been facing stiffer competition.
East Fife’s away form is much better than Dumbarton’s home form and take into account Fife beat
Dumbarton 6-0 at the end of August and suddenly 8/5 looks massive. It is!

SD2 East Fife WIN @8/5 (vs. Dumbarton) – 1 star bet (Ladbrokes, Bet365)

Sports betting blog comment  this was advised yesterday to football bets clients.
Best price now 7/5 Ladbrokes

Betfair worth a check as always

Newmarket Betting Statistics

Dave Renham has kindly provided some stats to help with a couple of races at Newmarket today.

Find out more about Dave at his own site. Click Here ==> Horse Betting Advice

——————————————————————

The trends and statistics are based on the last 20 years to 1990.

All profits and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return
on investment;

LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

Newmarket 2.30 Cheveley Park Stakes – 6f (Group 1) 2yo fillies
POSITIVE TRENDS
Market: Second and third favourites (inc. Joints) have produced
9 wins from 43 qualifiers showing a profit of £14.50 (ROI +33.7%).
Market: The top 3 in the betting have provided 16 of the last
20 winners.
LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have produced 13
of the 20 winners (from 86 qualifiers) showing a profit of £24.72 (ROI
+29.1%).
Trainers: In form trainers are worth noting. Trainers whose
last winner came within his/her last seven runners have accounted for
17 of the 20 winners. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit
of £23.31 (ROI +18.7%).
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 80.
Position LTO: Horses finishing third or worse last time out
have produced just 1 winner from 62 qualifiers for a loss of £47.00
(ROI –75.8%).
Career starts:Horses having five or more previous runs have
produced 3 winners from 56 qualifiers for a loss of £43.50 (ROI -77.7%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten a length or more LTO have
provided just 2 winners from 73 for a loss of £54.00 (ROI -74%).
Trainers: Trainers who have failed to register a win with
any of their last 12 runners (all flat races) have produced just 2 winners
from 38 qualifiers for a loss of £31.59 (ROI -83.1%).
Trainers: Just 1 win from 24 for Irish trained horses (the
last 23 since 1997 have all lost).
GENERAL STATS
Favourites (inc. joints): 7 wins from 21 for a profit of £1.22
(ROI +5.8%).
Favourites LTO: Horses that were favourite on their most recent
start have produced 8 winners from 64 qualifiers but they produced a
big loss of £33.82 (ROI -52.8%). Indeed all 25 LTO favourites that were
beaten in that race have come on to lose here as well.
Career Wins: 13 of the last 20 winners had previously won
twice or more. They have provided 65% of the winners from around 50%
of the total runners.

Trends analysis: An interesting set of statistics in a race that has
been dominated by the top 3 in the betting.

Indeed the market tends to be a very strong guide with just one genuine
outsider (price 16/1+) from 80 qulaifiers managing to win. LTO winners should be noted, while horses
beaten a length or more LTO should be avoided as should beaten favourites. Trainers with a fairly
recent win are well worth noting in this race

Newmarket 3.05 – Middle Park – 6f (Group 1) 2yo colts / geldings

POSITIVE TRENDS
Market: 14 of the last 20 winners came from the top two in
the betting.
Price: 12 of the last 20 winners have been priced 7/2 or shorter.
Backing all 28 qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £4.15
(ROI +14.8%).
Position LTO: All of the last 20 winners finished in the first
three LTO.
Career wins: Horses that have won at least three times in
their career have produced 8 winners from 29 qualifiers. Backing all
qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £39.83 (ROI +137.3%).
LTO course: 5 of the last 9 winners raced at Ascot last time
out (from 9 runners).
Trainers: French and Irish trainers have saddled 6 winners
from 27 runners. Focusing solely on those that started first or second
in the betting the results improve to 6 wins from just 12 runners.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Price: Just 2 wins from 70 runners for horses priced 10/1
or bigger.
Position LTO: Horses finishing fourth or worse last time out
have provided 0 winners from 27 qualifiers.
GENERAL STATS
Favourites:There have been 9 winning favourites from 20 for
a small profit of 32 pence!
Newmarket Trainers: Trainers from Newmarket dominated the
race in the mid to late 90s with wins in ’93, ’94, ’96, ’97 and ’98.
However, they have saddled just 1 winner since then from 27 runners.

Trends analysis: The market has dominated this race with the top two in the betting providing 70% of theIndeed the last 12 seasons has seen the winner priced in single figures.

All the winners finished in the first three LTO so ignore any horse
that did not.

Not many horses come into the race having won at least three times already, but note any runners that do.

Also note horses from France or Ireland that are well fancied (top
2 in the betting).

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Sale Week at PunterProfits

FREE Favourites Report and Sale Week

PunterProfits is a site well respected for hard work and honest research.

Dave Renham there has just put up for download a great little FREE report
into favourites in uk flat racing.

Which trainer for example wins 43% of the time when his horse starts favourite?

Plus this trainer makes a profit at starting price of 21% of turnover.
There is sale week on at PunterProfits right now where for the price of a pint
you will get a whole lot more than the great free report mentioned above.

Rather than me re inventing the wheel here I am going to be lazy and tell you
to go read read the online version of the PunterProfits newsletter at
the link below.

You will read a bit more about why it might be a shrewd investment to fork
out £3

( would over 100 points profits in a single month be of any use to you? )
Also you will learn where to get the totally free favourites research report.

Here is the link ==> PunterProfits Sale Info

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

The below was provided by RacingTrends

for more info click here ==> Horse Racing Blog

=====================================

Sat May 1st 2010

Best races for favourites

2.55 Thirsk

4.15, 5.25 Newmarket

6.45 Doncaster

Trainer stat to note

W Haggas has a good record with horses off track for 8+ weeks assuming they start in the top 3 of the betting. His strike rate is around 30% with profits of just under 30%. He runs Shamali in the 1.55 Newmarket and he is currently 3rd favourite.

Best race for front runners

5.15; 5.45 Thirsk

Strong course trainer stats

Doncaster trainer stats

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
M P Tregoning 5 13 38.5 +£3.30 +25.4 8.20
H R A Cecil 7 34 20.6 +£12.00 +35.3 7.15

Newmarket trainer stats

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
J H M Gosden 80 416 19.2 +£115.79 +27.8 5.25
J R Best 10 56 17.9 +£56.75 +101.3 3.05, 3.05, 4.15
H Candy 14 85 16.5 +£33.25 +39.1 3.40
A P O’Brien 16 98 16.3 +£21.89 +22.3 3.05, 3.05, 3.05

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics by Dave Renham

——————————————————-

Dave offers a useful free guide to horse racing.

To get yours click here ==> Horse Racing Course

——————————————————-

In this post I am looking at the Spring Mile, the Brocklesby and the Listed Cammidge sprint.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 15 renewals. All profits
and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on
investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.00 Doncaster -
Spring Mile – 1m class 2 (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
Second, third and fourth favourites have provided 6 winners and backing
all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £12.50 (ROI +25%).
Course LTO:

9 of the 15 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. They have provided
60% of the winners from only 33% of the total runners. Backing all such
runners would have produced a profit of £44.50 (ROI +40.5%).

Age:
4yos have won 10 of the last 15 renewals. (67% of winners from 44% of
the total runners).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites:
1 win from 15 for a loss of £7.00 (ROI -46.7%).
Price:
All runners priced 11/2 or shorter have been beaten (12 in total).
Price:
Horses priced 25/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 122 qualifiers
for a loss of £88.00 (ROI -72.1%).
Distance LTO:
Horses that ran over 1m1f or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 78
qualifiers.
Class LTO:
67 horses raced in the same class or higher LTO and all have lost.
Course LTO:
Horses that ran on the all weather LTO have provided just 3 winners
from 155 runners for a loss of £108.00 (ROI -69.7%).
Age:
Horses 7yos and older have provided 0 winners from 55.

GENERAL STATS

Position LTO:
Horses that finished 10th or worse LTO have won 7 of the
races.
Sex of horse:
Female runners have a fair record with 3 wins from 31 for a profit of
£22.00 (ROI +71%).

Trends analysis:
In general I would look to use the negative trends first to help narrow
this big field down. Firstly ignore 7 year olds and older, then ignore
and horses dropping in trip. All 15 winners raced in a lower class LTO
and there should be preference for horses that ran at a Grade 1 track
LTO. Also LTO form does not really seem to matter as nearly half the
winners have won after finishing 10
th
or worse LTO.

2.35 Doncaster -
Cammidge Trophy – 6f Listed (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price:
7 of the last 15 winners have been priced between 6/1 and 11/1. Backing
all runners in this price bracket would have produced a profit of £14.50
(ROI +26.9%).
LTO class:
Horses that raced in Listed class LTO have provided 8 of the last 15
winners.
Days since last
run:
14 of the last 15 winners were having their first run of the
year in the UK.
Running style:
In recent years horses that have raced up with or close to the pace
have had a clear advantage providing 8 of the last 11 winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

LTO class:
Horses that raced in class 3 company or lower LTO have provided 0 winners
from 25 runners.
LTO race type:
Horses that raced in an all age handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 65 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -76.9%).
LTO course:

Horses that raced on the all weather LTO have provided just 1 winner
from 33 for a loss of £24.50 (ROI -74.2%).

Headgear:
Horses wearing blinkers / visors have provided 0 winners from 24.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc.
joints):
4 wins from 17 for a loss of £2.75 (ROI -16.2%).
Age:
3yos have won 1 race from 9 (SR 11.1%); 4yos have won 4 races from 59
(SR 6.8%); 5yos have won 4 races from 31 (SR 12.9%); 6yos have won 3
races from 28 (SR 10.7%); 7yos have won 2 races from 23 (SR 8.7%); 8yos+
have won 1 from 26 (SR 3.8%).
Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 13 races from 143 (SR 9.1%); female runners have
won 2 races from 33 (SR 6.1%).

Trends analysis:
This is a race that traditionally favours seasonal debutants rather
than horses that have raced recently on the all weather. The best value
has been in the 6/1 to 11/1 price bracket. Prominent racers have a good
recent record, while horses that raced in Listed class LTO have been
the most successful. Avoid horses that raced in an all age handicap
LTO and/or and any horse wearing blinkers or a visor. Also horses that
raced in class 3 or lower LTO look best ignored.

3.40 Doncaster -
Brocklesby – 5f conditions (2yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market:
13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 6 in the betting. (15.4
runners per race is the 15-year average).
Price:
14 of the last 15 winners have been priced 14/1 or lower.
Draw:
In big fields high draws have had the advantage in recent years with
four of the seven 17 runner plus races since 1998 going to one of the
top three stalls. Indeed, 2 years ago the first five runners home were
drawn 19, 14, 13, 18 and 20 (19 ran; 2 non runners). Last year the first
six horses home in a 19 runners race were drawn 11 or higher.
Running style:
The last 15 winners have raced close to or up with the pace.
Trainers:
Bill Turner has saddled 4 winners and 4 placed horses from 15.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc.
joints):
2 wins from 20 for a loss of £10.25 (ROI -51.3%).
Market position:
Horses 10th or bigger in the betting market have provided
1 win from 89 runners for a loss of £63.00 (ROI -70.8%).
Price:
Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 110 runners
for a loss of £84.00 (ROI -76.4%).
Training centre:
Newmarket trainers have provided just 1 winners from 23 for a loss of
£19.75 (ROI -85.9%).

GENERAL STATS

Sex of horse:
Male runners have won 12 races from 170 (SR 4.9%); female runners have
won 3 races from 61 (SR 4.9%).
Foaling date:
January and February foals have won 5 races from 79 (SR 6.3%); March
foals have won 6 races from 70 (SR 8.6%); April and May foals have won
4 from 82 (SR 4.9%).

Trends analysis:
With this being such an early 2yo race one would expect trends to be
thin on the ground, but there are several useful pointers to this contest.
Traditionally it is best to focus on horses priced 14/1 or shorter,
although it should be noted that favourites have struggled. Racing close
to the pace has been vital and this has become more important as the
fields have increased, so ‘in running’ players take note! A trainer
to note is Bill Turner whose record is very impressive. Finally, in
big fields a high draw has been an advantage.