Back Fitting Of Horse Racing Systems

The term back fitting when applied to horse racing systems
can be summarised as over engineering selection criteria
putting all logic and common sense aside in order to produce
what on paper looks to be a profitable historic approach.

The big danger in doing so is that non sensible criteria are likely to
lead to future losses even if researched history shows positive results.

Who Can Fall Prey To Back Fitting?

You perhaps

If you research your own systems it is important to try and think logically.
Are there good reasons why your selection criteria are likely to produce good results?
Be careful not to use silly criteria just because by random fluke
the monkeys with type writers of historical results scatter happen to show some positive results.

If you buy systems from a system vendor tread carefully too.
Remember the seller is often primarily concerned with making a quick buck from you.
Often what he cares about is putting up a big sexy past profits pound sign in front of your nose.
They want your cash today and care little about whether what they have sold you with a pile of hype
has significant chance of doing well in the future.

For more reading around this general concept of back fitting see
the article below.

==> Four Simple Horse Racing Systems

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

This soccer bet comes from Tammboy who is an ex bookmaker odds compiler.

He now works for the benefit of us punters however over at the football bets website.

The results page there shows how good profits can be made from soccer betting if you know your stuff.

See football results

Anyhow on to one of his recommended bets for today.

Dumbarton vs. East Fife

Dumbarton have fallen apart in their last 4 games, conceding a total of 11 goals.
It’s true that East Fife haven’t been performing that great either but they have been facing stiffer competition.
East Fife’s away form is much better than Dumbarton’s home form and take into account Fife beat
Dumbarton 6-0 at the end of August and suddenly 8/5 looks massive. It is!

SD2 East Fife WIN @8/5 (vs. Dumbarton) – 1 star bet (Ladbrokes, Bet365)

Sports betting blog comment  this was advised yesterday to football bets clients.
Best price now 7/5 Ladbrokes

Betfair worth a check as always

FREE Favourites Report and Sale Week

PunterProfits is a site well respected for hard work and honest research.

Dave Renham there has just put up for download a great little FREE report
into favourites in uk flat racing.

Which trainer for example wins 43% of the time when his horse starts favourite?

Plus this trainer makes a profit at starting price of 21% of turnover.
There is sale week on at PunterProfits right now where for the price of a pint
you will get a whole lot more than the great free report mentioned above.

Rather than me re inventing the wheel here I am going to be lazy and tell you
to go read read the online version of the PunterProfits newsletter at
the link below.

You will read a bit more about why it might be a shrewd investment to fork
out £3

( would over 100 points profits in a single month be of any use to you? )
Also you will learn where to get the totally free favourites research report.

Here is the link ==> PunterProfits Sale Info

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

The below was provided by RacingTrends

for more info click here ==> Horse Racing Blog

=====================================

Sat May 1st 2010

Best races for favourites

2.55 Thirsk

4.15, 5.25 Newmarket

6.45 Doncaster

Trainer stat to note

W Haggas has a good record with horses off track for 8+ weeks assuming they start in the top 3 of the betting. His strike rate is around 30% with profits of just under 30%. He runs Shamali in the 1.55 Newmarket and he is currently 3^rd favourite.

Best race for front runners

5.15; 5.45 Thirsk

Strong course trainer stats

Doncaster trainer stats

Newmarket trainer stats

Doncaster Horse Racing Statisics by Dave Renham

——————————————————-

Dave offers a useful free guide to horse racing.

To get yours click here ==> Horse Racing Course

——————————————————-

In this post I am looking at the Spring Mile, the Brocklesby and the Listed Cammidge sprint.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 15 renewals. All profits
and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on
investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.

2.00 Doncaster -
Spring Mile – 1m class 2 (4yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

2.35 Doncaster -
Cammidge Trophy – 6f Listed (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

3.40 Doncaster -
Brocklesby – 5f conditions (2yo)

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Soccer Betting Tips for the weekend of Sat Dec 5th

These tips come from a bloke who uses the name 99 reds.

They are devised from his personal ratings.

He is one of the candidates going for the job of official soccer advisor over at www.football-bets.co.uk

His month long tipping interview there has racked up very good profits so far.

Double    Charlton / Norwich     Stake 1 point        Pays 6/4  Skybet

Double    Spurs / Ipswich     Stake 0.2 points         Pays 8/1  Skybet

Single      Spurs      Stake 0.5 points                         Pays 6/4  Skybet

Single      Ipswich     Stake 0.3 points                      Pays 11/4  Skybet

Lay           Arsenal      Stake 1 point                            Liability  0.3 points

Lay          Fiorentina    Stake 1 point                          Liability  0.64 points

Horse Racing Stats

Just a snippet from the full message from www.RacingTrends.co.uk

———–

Value horses – horses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 9 years would have shown good profits in the long term:

Sign of the Cross (7.50 Wolverhampton)

Draw section -

Ripon 5f (qualifying race today at 2.55) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f there have been 15 races in the past four seasons. Many of these races have seen the field split into two groups as the ground nearer to each rail is quicker than the centre of the course. This fact is demonstrated by the fact that 7 of the 16 winners were drawn in either the two lowest, or two highest stalls. Hence there should be an advantage to horses drawn 1, 2, 17 and 18. My feeling is that low may well have the edge on the likely fast ground.

Leicester 6f (qualifying race today at 1.55) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 39.3% middle third of the draw 35.7% top third of the draw 25%

High draws have been at a slight disadvantage but it is not too significant.

Haydock 5f (qualifying race today at 6.10) – in handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 32.1% middle third of the draw 32.1% top third of the draw 35.7%

A very even playing field with no draw advantage.

Haydock 1m (qualifying races today at 7.10 and 8.10) – in handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 33.3% middle third of the draw 33.3% top third of the draw 33.3%

Amazingly the 51 races have been won equally (17 each) by the three sections of the draw. Even more amazingly the placed stats are virtually identical too!

Horses that ran well against a draw bias recently (NEW SECTION): Nisaal (1.00 Sandown) – first home on the stands side LTO when 4^th Comptonspirit (2.55 Ripon) – best of horses that raced towards the far side at Redcar LTO when 2^nd

POOR VALUE FAVOURITE - none

Trainer section

Positive trainer stats: please note certain stats will be repeated each day for several horses. It is simply a way of illustrating the type of horse a particular trainer has done consistently well with in the past.

FLAT

Mount Hermon (1:00 Sandown) – H Morrison – April to June – off the track for 6 months+ in handicaps; SR 18.8% ROI +70%

Royal Desert (2:30 Leicester)*** – M Channon – 2yo maidens March to May – top 3 in the betting; SR 29.8% ROI +12.8%  *** currently 14/1 and joint 5th in the betting

Holberg (3:05 Leicester) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% roi +22.7%

Racer Forever (3:40 Leicester) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; roi +37.2%;

Virtual (3:45 Sandown) John Gosden – male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 22.7%; roi +22.7%

Pipedreamer (4:15 Sandown) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 28.3%; roi +37.2%;

Victorian Art (4:35 Ripon)*** – M Magnusson – all runners top 3 in betting SR 29% ROI +48%  *** Non runner

Cosimo (4:45Leicester) – Sir Michael Stoute – 3yos in maiden races off track for 6 months+ SR 32% roi +20%

Serious Impact (4:45Leicester) – John Gosden – male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 22.7%; roi +22.7%

Signaller (5:10 Ripon) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% roi +22.7%

Matraash (7:40 Haydock) – Mark Johnston – horses returning from break of 6 months+ running in a maiden SR 24.6% roi +27.8%

Frosted (8:50Wolverhampton) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; roi +37.2%

Ballet Dancer (8:50 Wolverhampton) – M jarvis – horses off the track for more than 6 months running in a maiden race SR 29%; roi +75%

NH

Winged Arrow (3:20 Market Rasen) J O’ Neill handicap hurdles aged 4 to 7 if priced 8/1 or shorter – SR 25% win & pl 53%; roi 20%  **** – currently priced 6/1

Trainer Course Stats

Sandown – All Races (best strike rates)

Ripon – All Races (best strike rates)

Haydock – All Races (best strike rates)

Leicester – All Races (best strike rates)

HOT TRAINERS (trainers who are currently in good form) – J.Gosden, W. Swinburn, B Hills, J Boyle, H Cecil, P Chappell-Hyam, P Evans, T Dascombe, R Fahey, T Barron

Horses with decent course records – none
Strong sire stats -

Lewyn (5.40 Haydock) – Exceed and Excel 2yos over 5f SR 24%

Crown (5.40 Haydock) – Royal Applause 2yos in 5f maidens class 5 or lower SR 22.5%; ROI +35%

For two other horses today, keep an eye on the going / weather. In the unlikely event the going goes soft or heavy at Leicester or Sandown, two horses are likely to run well due to solid sire stats in the mud:

Regal Parade (3.40 Leicester) ***** ONLY ON SOFT/HEAVY

Virtual (3.45 Sandown) ***** ONLY ON SOFT/HEAVY Negative Sire stats -

Kate Skate (5.40 Haydock) – Poor sire stat – Mark of Esteem 2yo non handicaps over 5f SR 3.3% ROI loss -71.3%

Pace information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Ripon 5f (2.55) Leaders 2.5 Prominent / chased leaders 1.1 Hold up / behind 0.45 Front runners have an advantage. Hold up horses are at a big disadvantage.

Most likely front runners drawn low are Mr Wolf (drawn 1); Nomoreblondes (drawn 3); most likely front runner drawn high is Speedy Senorita (drawn 17)

Horses noted 2 or more sections – None (unless the going goes soft/heavy then VIRTUAL in the 3.45 Sandown would qualify under 2 sections)

Racing Trends
Saturday, 25-Apr-2009

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

One of the key ways of improving your betting profits is to keep a keen eye not just on which horses you bet but also what prices you bet them at.

Over one hundred bets it is very possible for two people to bet exactly the same horses.
One will lose money and the other will win it.

How?

The smarter punter will work hard at finding the best possible prices available.

In my own opinion there are two key areas you need to focus on if trying to maximise the prices you obtain about your selections.

1 – You need to shop around various bookmakers and Exchanges and pick off the best prices.

2 – You need to consider direction of market movements. For example if the horse is moving in strongly consider taking the best price available right then. If on the other hand the horse is generally drifting consider holding off and letting it drift further. Judging direction of market movement is somewhat touch and feel.

To many however the ability to put a lot of time and effort into price hunting and trying to judge the markets is a luxury they may not have the free time or even daily net access to achieve.

What then?

If you are in that position is there anything you can do to make more profit from your betting?

Well yes there is a very simply way to increase your winnings over betting at starting price.

All you need do is use a bookmaker who offers to pay you more than starting price.

This scheme is called SP Plus and is offered by bookmaker CentreBet

How Does SP Plus work ?

It is pretty simple really.

Bet at SP Plus and the bookmaker will raise your payout up the ladder one notch.

For example if the horse wins at 10/1 starting price the SP Plus pay out will be one notch up the ladder ie 11/1.

So simple. For little or no extra afford you can be earning more profits via a simple choice of who you bet with.

Are you ever going to bet at SP again?
Surely only a mug would do that.
The bookmaker will be laughing at you.

Odds Improvement Table

The table below you may find of use.

This is based on CentreBet SP Plus returns.

It indicates the starting price and the associated SP Plus payout prices.
Also you can see how much better SP Plus  is in percentage terms for any particular price.

NB if you look at  7/2 you will note that improving that to 4/1 is one
of the more significant jumps at an improvement percentage of over 14%. Not
hard to understand why then CentreBet decided to introduce the strange odds
of 15/4 on their version of the ladder.

If you are one of those who wants to bet on uk horse racing but does not have
huge ammounts of time to watch betting markets , then the sp plus offer fom CentreBet
is a very quick and easy way to boost your betting profits over starting price
returns.