Saturday Horse Racing Stats

Horse Racing Stats

Just a snippet from the full message from www.RacingTrends.co.uk

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Value horseshorses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 9 years would have shown good profits in the long term:

Sign of the Cross (7.50 Wolverhampton)

Draw section -

Ripon 5f (qualifying race today at 2.55) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f there have been 15 races in the past four seasons. Many of these races have seen the field split into two groups as the ground nearer to each rail is quicker than the centre of the course. This fact is demonstrated by the fact that 7 of the 16 winners were drawn in either the two lowest, or two highest stalls. Hence there should be an advantage to horses drawn 1, 2, 17 and 18. My feeling is that low may well have the edge on the likely fast ground.

Leicester 6f (qualifying race today at 1.55) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 39.3% middle third of the draw 35.7% top third of the draw 25%

High draws have been at a slight disadvantage but it is not too significant.

Haydock 5f (qualifying race today at 6.10) – in handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 32.1% middle third of the draw 32.1% top third of the draw 35.7%

A very even playing field with no draw advantage.

Haydock 1m (qualifying races today at 7.10 and 8.10) – in handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 33.3% middle third of the draw 33.3% top third of the draw 33.3%

Amazingly the 51 races have been won equally (17 each) by the three sections of the draw. Even more amazingly the placed stats are virtually identical too!

Horses that ran well against a draw bias recently (NEW SECTION): Nisaal (1.00 Sandown) – first home on the stands side LTO when 4th Comptonspirit (2.55 Ripon) – best of horses that raced towards the far side at Redcar LTO when 2nd

POOR VALUE FAVOURITE - none

Trainer section

Positive trainer stats: please note certain stats will be repeated each day for several horses. It is simply a way of illustrating the type of horse a particular trainer has done consistently well with in the past.

FLAT

Mount Hermon (1:00 Sandown) – H Morrison – April to June – off the track for 6 months+ in handicaps; SR 18.8% ROI +70%

Royal Desert (2:30 Leicester)*** – M Channon – 2yo maidens March to May – top 3 in the betting; SR 29.8% ROI +12.8%  *** currently 14/1 and joint 5th in the betting

Holberg (3:05 Leicester) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% roi +22.7%

Racer Forever (3:40 Leicester) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; roi +37.2%;

Virtual (3:45 Sandown) John Gosden – male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 22.7%; roi +22.7%

Pipedreamer (4:15 Sandown) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 28.3%; roi +37.2%;

Victorian Art (4:35 Ripon)*** – M Magnusson – all runners top 3 in betting SR 29% ROI +48%  *** Non runner

Cosimo (4:45Leicester) – Sir Michael Stoute – 3yos in maiden races off track for 6 months+ SR 32% roi +20%

Serious Impact (4:45Leicester) – John Gosden – male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 22.7%; roi +22.7%

Signaller (5:10 Ripon) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% roi +22.7%

Matraash (7:40 Haydock) – Mark Johnston – horses returning from break of 6 months+ running in a maiden SR 24.6% roi +27.8%

Frosted (8:50Wolverhampton) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; roi +37.2%

Ballet Dancer (8:50 Wolverhampton) – M jarvis – horses off the track for more than 6 months running in a maiden race SR 29%; roi +75%

NH

Winged Arrow (3:20 Market Rasen) J O’ Neill handicap hurdles aged 4 to 7 if priced 8/1 or shorter – SR 25% win & pl 53%; roi 20%  **** – currently priced 6/1

Trainer Course Stats

Sandown – All Races (best strike rates)

Trainer Wins Runs SR Profit ROI
Sir M Prescott 11 34 32.4% +£18.00 +52.9%
J Given 6 24 25.0% +£29.50 +122.9%
H Cecil 17 76 22.4% -£8.66 -11.4%
S Williams 8 36 22.2% +£34.13 +94.8%
Sir M Stoute 54 252 21.4% -£5.28 -2.1%
J Gosden 35 175 20.0% -£22.93 -13.1%
J Noseda 11 55 20.0% -£8.04 -14.6%
M Jarvis 25 128 19.5% +£21.96 +17.2%
A O’Brien 4 21 19.0% +£7.03 +33.5%
N Callaghan 9 50 18.0% +£0.12 +0.2%
M Johnston 37 207 17.9% +£7.54 +3.6%
C Wall 12 67 17.9% +£30.25 +45.1%
S Bin Suroor 15 87 17.2% -£7.57 -8.7%

Ripon – All Races (best strike rates)

Trainer Wins Runs SR Profit ROI
H Cecil 11 31 35.5% +£7.25 +23.4%
M Jarvis 14 43 32.6% +£8.45 +19.7%
M Tregoning 7 22 31.8% +£3.29 +15%
B Hills 34 109 31.2% +£21.05 +19.3%
J Gosden 10 37 27% -£9.56 -25.8%
J Dunlop 21 78 26.9% -£11.25 -14.4%
Sir M Stoute 13 54 24.1% -£19.76 -36.6%
T Tate 13 58 22.4% +£99.08 +170.8%
P Cole 5 23 21.7% +£9.81 +42.6%
J Fanshawe 8 38 21.1% -£5.70 -15%
M Tompkins 9 46 19.6% +£16.5 +35.9%
R Hannon 5 26 19.2% +£4.57 +17.6%
C Brittain 6 32 18.8% +£16.5 +51.6%

Haydock – All Races (best strike rates)

Trainer Wins Runs SR Profit ROI
H  Cecil 15 49 30.6% +£12.45 +25.4%
M Jarvis 49 175 28.0% +£69.25 +39.6%
Sir M Stoute 23 90 25.6% +£13.51 +15.0%
Sir M Prescott 14 56 25.0% +£0.69 +1.2%
M Tregoning 8 33 24.2% +£18.08 +54.8%
W Haggas 22 94 23.4% +£25.69 +27.3%
Mrs A Duffield 8 36 22.2% +£2.75 +7.6%
L Cumani 22 104 21.2% +£10.54 +10.1%
Mrs L Stubbs 7 33 21.2% +£20.00 +60.6%
M Quinlan 4 20 20.0% +£8.16 +40.8%

Leicester – All Races (best strike rates)

Trainer Wins Runs SR Profit ROI
S Bin Suroor 19 54 35.2% -£3.90 -7.2%
J Noseda 8 24 33.3% +£5.36 +22.3%
P Chapple-Hyam 12 40 30.0% +£77.04 +192.6%
M Tregoning 10 35 28.6% +£43.86 +125.3%
H Cecil 20 79 25.3% +£18.15 +23.0%
L Cumani 21 97 21.6% +£20.80 +21.4%
J Bethell 10 48 20.8% +£31.50 +65.6%
J Fanshawe 23 114 20.2% +£24.83 +21.8%

HOT TRAINERS (trainers who are currently in good form) – J.Gosden, W. Swinburn, B Hills, J Boyle, H Cecil, P Chappell-Hyam, P Evans, T Dascombe, R Fahey, T Barron

Horses with decent course records – none
Strong sire stats -

Lewyn (5.40 Haydock) – Exceed and Excel 2yos over 5f SR 24%

Crown (5.40 Haydock) – Royal Applause 2yos in 5f maidens class 5 or lower SR 22.5%; ROI +35%

For two other horses today, keep an eye on the going / weather. In the unlikely event the going goes soft or heavy at Leicester or Sandown, two horses are likely to run well due to solid sire stats in the mud:

Regal Parade (3.40 Leicester) ***** ONLY ON SOFT/HEAVY

Virtual (3.45 Sandown) ***** ONLY ON SOFT/HEAVY Negative Sire stats -

Kate Skate (5.40 Haydock) – Poor sire stat – Mark of Esteem 2yo non handicaps over 5f SR 3.3% ROI loss -71.3%

Pace information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Ripon 5f (2.55) Leaders 2.5 Prominent / chased leaders 1.1 Hold up / behind 0.45 Front runners have an advantage. Hold up horses are at a big disadvantage.

Most likely front runners drawn low are Mr Wolf (drawn 1); Nomoreblondes (drawn 3); most likely front runner drawn high is Speedy Senorita (drawn 17)

Horses noted 2 or more sections – None (unless the going goes soft/heavy then VIRTUAL in the 3.45 Sandown would qualify under 2 sections)

Racing Trends
Saturday, 25-Apr-2009

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Horse Racing Statistics

Message From www.RacingTrends.co.uk

 

Thursday 16th April

 

Horses that are positives in more than one area will be noted at the end of the message.

 

Value horses – horses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 5 years would have shown good profits in the long term:

 

Sills Vincero (5.15 Wolverhampton)

Milne Bay (6.15 Wolverhampton)

Brouhana (7.45 Wolverhampton)

 

Draw section

 

Ripon 1 mile (3.45 today) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 onwards):

 

bottom third of the draw 12.5%

middle third of the draw 18.8%

top third of the draw 68.8%

 

It seems from the stats that horses from the top third have a very significant edge. However, it should be noted that there have only been 16 handicap races of 10 or more runners in the past four years which is a small sample. Having said that, traditionally high draws over this distance do have a decent edge.

 

Best drawn runners – Trumptoo (drawn 11), Johnmanderville (drawn 10), Firebet (drawn 9), On Offer (drawn 8)

 

 

Ripon 5f (5.30 today) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f there have been 15 races in the past four seasons. Many of these races have seen the field split into two groups as the ground nearer to each rail is quicker than the centre of the course. This fact is demonstrated by the fact that 7 of the 15 winners were drawn in either the two lowest, or two highest stalls. Hence there should be an advantage to horses drawn 1, 2, 15 and 16.

 

Well drawn runners – Circuit Dancer (drawn 1), Rio Sands (drawn 2), Cheshire Rose (drawn 15), Miss Daawe (drawn 16).

 

 

Market information

 

2.00 Ripon; 2.25 Newmarket; 4.20 Ripon; 4.45 Newmarket – POOR VALUE FAVOURITE – Maiden races on turf in March / April when favourite is debutant; sr 26%; roi -24.5%. Overall figures for such runners is 32% and -9%

 

Trainer section

 

Positive trainer stats: please note certain stats will be repeated each day for several horses. It is simply a way of illustrating the type of horse a particular trainer has done consistently well with in the past.

 

Cheviot (2.35 Ripon)M Jarvis – March and April – horses off the track for more than 6 months; SR 26.1%; ROI +37%

 

Prohibit (3.00 Newmarket) – John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

 

Prohibit (3.00 Newmarket) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; ROI +37.2%

 

Close Alliance (3.35 Newmarket) - John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

 

Tazeez (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; ROI +37.2%

 

Tazeez (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

 

Virtual (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; ROI +37.2%

 

Virtual (4.10 Newmarket) - John Gosden at Newmarket – male runners off track for 29+ days; SR 32.7% ROI +213%

 

Balaagha (4.45 Newmarket) – M Jarvis – horses off the track for more than 6 months running in a maiden race SR 29%; ROI +75%

 

Balaagha (4.45 Newmarket) – M Jarvis – March and April – horses off the track for more than 4 weeks SR 27.2%; ROI +56%

 

Perpetually (5.20 Newmarket) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% ROI +22.7%

 

Justcallmehandsome (7.45 Wolverhampton) – D Ffrench Davis on all weather – 7lb claiming jockey on board – SR 22.7%; ROI +394%

 

Positive trainer course stats:

 

John Gosden has an excellent overall record at Newmarket since 2000. In all Newmarket races he has an overall strike rate of 19.4% for profits of +33.6% – this comes from over 580 runners. This record means all his runners deserve a second glance – his runners today are listed below:

 

Race time

Horse

1.50 Newmarket

Militarist

1.50 Newmarket

Illusive Spirit

1.50 Newmarket

Reportage

3.00 Newmarket

Prohibit

3.35 Newmarket

Close Alliance

4.10 Newmarket

Virtual

4.10 Newmarket

Tazeez

4.45 Newmarket

Christina Rossetti

4.45 Newmarket

Chicora

5.20 Newmarket

Nawaadi

5.20 Newmarket

Muraweg

 

HOT TRAINERSR Fahey, P Chappell Hyam, J Gosden, J Boyle, B Hills,

P Evans, J Best

 

Horses with decent course records

 

Common Diva (7.15 Wolverhampton) – 3 wins, 1 placed from 8.

Brouhana (7.45 Wolverhampton) – 3 wins from 4

 

 

Horses noted in two or more sections

 

Brouhana (7.45 Wolverhampton)

 

Please note that when evaluating trainer stats, we need two completely different types of positive stat to be included in this section. Hence if we include the Newmarket stats for John Gosden we also have the following horses noted in two sections:

 

Prohibit (3.00 Newmarket)

Close Alliance (3.35 Newmarket)

Tazeez (4.10 Newmarket)

Virtual (4.10 Newmarket)  

 

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Big race trends (last 10 years)

 

3.00 Newmarket – Abernant Stakes

 

Positives

 

9 of the last 10 winners finished 5th or better LTO.

9 of the last 10 winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the betting LTO.

4yos have won 5 of the 10 races (from 35% of the total runners)

Trainer Richard Hannon has saddled 3 winners and 2 placed from 12 runners

3 of the last 10 winners have won from the front (2 were clear leaders, the other disputed the lead).

7 of the last 10 winners raced at Newmarket or Doncaster LTO.

 

Negatives

 

Priced 16/1 or bigger – 0 from 54 (however, there were three winners at 14/1).

 

3.35 Newmarket – Craven Stakes

 

Positives

 

Richard Hannon (3 wins), Barry Hills (2 wins) and Sir Michael Stoute (2 wins) should be respected.

9 of the last 10 winners ran over 7f LTO.

6 of the last 10 winners ran at Newmarket LTO.

 

Negatives

 

American bred horses have provided just 1 win from 23 runners (compare with British breds – 5 wins from 30; Irish breds 4 wins from 18).

Horses priced 2/1 or shorter have provided just 1 winner from 8.

Racing Trends
Thursday, 16-Apr-2009

www.RacingTrends.co.uk