Draw Bias Stats

Draw Bias Stats

The draw can play a very important role in flat racing.

There are proven biases to certain stall positions over certain course and distances.

Dave Renham is renouned as on of the uk’s leading experts on Draw Bias.

One small element of his daily messages to clients at his Racing Trends service is a section detailing any significant draw bias for that day’s racing.

I have copied today’s Draw Bias section for you below.

If you are the sort who likes to think about their racing and who prefers to make your own mind up as to what to back or lay instead of just following a tipster you may find the RacingTrends service are great daily resource.

Packed full of well researched stats and info it can only help your decission making.

Contact me here at sports betting blog and I should be able to arrange a short free test period trial for you.

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DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

Course & distance (time) Bottom third win % Middle third win% Top third win%
Bath 5f (1.45) 10 0 90
Bath 5f161yds (5.40) 65 4 30
Chester 5f (1.40) 82 9 9
Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35) 21 63 16
Doncaster 1m (1.50, 4.50) 27 36 36
Kempton aw 5f (5.50) 44 41 15
Kempton aw 1m (7.20) 37 33 29
Kempton aw 7f (9.20) 41 34 25
Newcastle 1m (2.00, 2.35) 38 31 31
Newcastle 6f (3.10) 19 30 52
Newcastle 5f (5.25) 37 21 42

Bath 5f (1.45) higher draws do best here as low draws tend to go off too quickly. There are only 10 races in this sample so the bias is not as strong as it looks!

Bath 5f161yds (5.40) high draws used to dominate, but it seems lower drawn runners go off at a more steady pace these days hence being more able to take advantage of the bend.

Chester 5f (1.40) low draws have a very significant edge over this C&D. The lower the draw the better.

Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35) low draws are perceived to have an edge over this extended 7f, but the figures suggest this is not the case. The value lies with middle drawn horses.

Kempton aw 5f (5.50) low draws have the edge here with higher draws struggling.

Kempton aw 7f (9.20) high draws struggle a little over this distance. Low draws tend to have an advantage when the field size hits 13 runners or more.

Newcastle 6f (3.10) high draws do best and occasionally completely dominate races.

Newcastle 5f (5.25) low draws tend to have the edge, especially in bigger fields, or when the stalls are placed far side (low). However, in fields of 10-12 with the stalls placed stands side, high draws can have an edge.

 

 

 

 

Draw Bias Explained

In flat racing the horses start the race from metal starting stalls.
The draw refers to a horse’s placing / position in the starting stalls.
Draw 1 is on the left, while the highest number is on the right.
On left handed round courses the lowest draw is drawn next to the inside rail;
on right handed courses the highest draw is drawn next to the inside rail.

The draw can be very important at certain courses over certain distances.

This is due to a number of factors – it could be that some horses have an
advantage because they are drawn on the inside and are hence able to
take the shortest route round the bend.
Picture I guess the 400m in athletics and the advantage you would
have on the inside track if starting positions were not staggered.

Another factor that can induce draw bias is the ground.
It could be that the ground close to one of the rails is quicker than the
rest of the course and hence those horse drawn in the right position can
take best advantage of the better ground.

To give you an idea of how strong draw biases can be ponder Chester over
5 furlongs. 5f at Chester is a classic case of a draw bias resulting from track configuration.

Since 1997 horses drawn 1 (on the inside) have won 43 of 205
races which is better than winning 1 race in every five.

You would have made a profit backing all horses drawn 1 over that period.
Compare this to horses drawn 10 or higher who have combined to win just 1 race from 276 runners!

Knowledge of where Draw Bias is likely to occur is very important to have.

Draw Bias stats can be used in a variety of ways.

Well drawn horses should be given much more consideration when analyzing a race for example.
Conversely poorly drawn horses have a severe negative to overcome and
you should be wary if you wish to back them. You may use the draw to
eliminate all the weaker drawn horses in order to make the race easier.

Clearly occasionally these poorer drawn horses will win but overall the stats
will be in your favour. At some courses backing the best drawn horse or best
two drawn horses has made a long term profit – this is a rather simplistic way
of using the draw but it can be profitable.

Indeed you may want to consider backing the best drawn horses in forecasts and tricasts.
For example, looking at Thirsk over 5 furlongs – from 2005 to 2008 in 10+ runner handicaps
(the best races to use draw bias) if you had permed the highest four draws in twenty four
£1 straight tricasts in every race would have yielded a profit of £1265.24 (ROI +175.7%).
If you had permed the highest four draws in twelve £1 straight forecasts in every race would
have yielded a profit of £206.90 (ROI +57.5%).
This bet would have been landed in 12 of the 30 races (40% of races).
These types of forecast / tricast bet offer big returns for a relatively small outlay.

A further way to use Draw Bias information is to look for horses that run well
despite being hampered by a very serious draw bias against it.

A horse that comes 4th for example when very badly drawn could do much better
in a future race if on an equal draw or favourorable draw footing.

Dave Renham

Author Bio:

Dave Renham is a uk horse racing researcher who specialises
in cold hard facts and figures that can be used to open your eyes
to more informed betting propositions.

Draw Bias relative to each days racing is one area he covers in his excellent daily racing stats service.  For more info on this click here ==> Draw Bias

Best Races For Favourites

Best Races For Favourites

If you examine the long term history of  individual horse races you will
see that some have a tendency for the favourite to do well and some have
a tendency for the favourite to do poorly.

There are two key measures of good or bad.

- Strike rate of favourites

and

- The profit or loss from betting them.

Below is a quick and ready reckoner to the races historically good for favourites for today’s racing.

Newmarket 2.45

Newbury 3.40

Bangor 4.40, 5.15

Uttoxeter 6.20

Doncaster 6.30, 7.05, 7.35

The above was copied from Dave Renham’s free horse racing blog and are based on his research over many years of past racing.

He puts up similar for free each Saturday.

His paid for service however provides a lot lot more detail.

eg Strike rates, return on investment info for layers pinpointing the poor races for poor favourites PLUS a huge amount of research into other areas of racing such as draw bias trainer stats etc.

If interested in testing out his service for free for a month visit the page below which is a secret page with a free trial deal for Sports Betting Blog readers.

http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/sbb-free-trial.php

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS

Below is a small portion of the very comprehensive horse racing data message from www.RacingTrends.co.uk

The bit I have picked out covers stats for favourites for races running Saturday May 8th

His full message also contains a lot more data about draw bias and trainers etc.

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Ascot favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 49 240 20.4 -£36.47 -15.2 2.50, 3.25, 4.35, 5.10
2yo maidens 5 31 16.1 -£17.12 -55.2 4.00

Haydock favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 86 387 22.2 -£34.40 -8.9 5.20
2yo maidens 51 140 36.4 +£2.45 +1.8 2.30

Lingfield favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo handicaps 28 93 30.1 +£22.80 +24.5 4.55
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 49 186 26.3 +£7.63 +4.1 5.30
3yo+ maidens 31 73 42.5 -£3.31 -4.5 4.20

Nottingham favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo handicaps 49 183 26.8 -£15.98 -8.7 2.55, 5.15
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 75 313 24.0 -£28.74 -9.2 1.55, 2.25, 4.05, 4.40, 5.45

Thirsk favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 75 288 26.0 -£11.14 -3.9 6.35, 7.05, 7.35, 8.35
3yo+ maidens 28 72 38.9 -£17.55 -24.4 8.05

Warwick favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo handicaps 15 84 17.9 -£29.26 -34.8 8.20
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 51 264 19.3 -£57.74 -21.9 5.50, 6.50, 7.50
3yo+ maidens 32 65 49.2 +£12.46 +19.2 7.20
2yo maidens 58 127 45.7 +£10.24 +8.1 6.20

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

Race type Wins Bets SR Profit ROI Race Times
3yo Group races 56 170 32.9 -£14.21 -8.4 Ling 3.10
3yo Listed 73 219 33.3 -£29.42 -13.4 Ling 2.40
All age Group 3 races 89 285 31.2 -£22.86 -8 Ling 2.10
3yo+ Listed 191 605 31.6 -£76.99 -12.7 Asco 2.20, Hayd 2.00, Nott 3.30
3yo+/4yo+ sellers 321 1018 31.5 +£29.07 2.9 Thir 6.05

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

Horse Racing Stats

Just a snippet from the full message from www.RacingTrends.co.uk

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Value horseshorses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 9 years would have shown good profits in the long term:

Sign of the Cross (7.50 Wolverhampton)

Draw section -

Ripon 5f (qualifying race today at 2.55) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f there have been 15 races in the past four seasons. Many of these races have seen the field split into two groups as the ground nearer to each rail is quicker than the centre of the course. This fact is demonstrated by the fact that 7 of the 16 winners were drawn in either the two lowest, or two highest stalls. Hence there should be an advantage to horses drawn 1, 2, 17 and 18. My feeling is that low may well have the edge on the likely fast ground.

Leicester 6f (qualifying race today at 1.55) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 39.3% middle third of the draw 35.7% top third of the draw 25%

High draws have been at a slight disadvantage but it is not too significant.

Haydock 5f (qualifying race today at 6.10) – in handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 32.1% middle third of the draw 32.1% top third of the draw 35.7%

A very even playing field with no draw advantage.

Haydock 1m (qualifying races today at 7.10 and 8.10) – in handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 33.3% middle third of the draw 33.3% top third of the draw 33.3%

Amazingly the 51 races have been won equally (17 each) by the three sections of the draw. Even more amazingly the placed stats are virtually identical too!

Horses that ran well against a draw bias recently (NEW SECTION): Nisaal (1.00 Sandown) – first home on the stands side LTO when 4th Comptonspirit (2.55 Ripon) – best of horses that raced towards the far side at Redcar LTO when 2nd

POOR VALUE FAVOURITE - none

Trainer section

Positive trainer stats: please note certain stats will be repeated each day for several horses. It is simply a way of illustrating the type of horse a particular trainer has done consistently well with in the past.

FLAT

Mount Hermon (1:00 Sandown) – H Morrison – April to June – off the track for 6 months+ in handicaps; SR 18.8% ROI +70%

Royal Desert (2:30 Leicester)*** – M Channon – 2yo maidens March to May – top 3 in the betting; SR 29.8% ROI +12.8%  *** currently 14/1 and joint 5th in the betting

Holberg (3:05 Leicester) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% roi +22.7%

Racer Forever (3:40 Leicester) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; roi +37.2%;

Virtual (3:45 Sandown) John Gosden – male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 22.7%; roi +22.7%

Pipedreamer (4:15 Sandown) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 28.3%; roi +37.2%;

Victorian Art (4:35 Ripon)*** – M Magnusson – all runners top 3 in betting SR 29% ROI +48%  *** Non runner

Cosimo (4:45Leicester) – Sir Michael Stoute – 3yos in maiden races off track for 6 months+ SR 32% roi +20%

Serious Impact (4:45Leicester) – John Gosden – male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 22.7%; roi +22.7%

Signaller (5:10 Ripon) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% roi +22.7%

Matraash (7:40 Haydock) – Mark Johnston – horses returning from break of 6 months+ running in a maiden SR 24.6% roi +27.8%

Frosted (8:50Wolverhampton) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; roi +37.2%

Ballet Dancer (8:50 Wolverhampton) – M jarvis – horses off the track for more than 6 months running in a maiden race SR 29%; roi +75%

NH

Winged Arrow (3:20 Market Rasen) J O’ Neill handicap hurdles aged 4 to 7 if priced 8/1 or shorter – SR 25% win & pl 53%; roi 20%  **** – currently priced 6/1

Trainer Course Stats

Sandown – All Races (best strike rates)

Trainer Wins Runs SR Profit ROI
Sir M Prescott 11 34 32.4% +£18.00 +52.9%
J Given 6 24 25.0% +£29.50 +122.9%
H Cecil 17 76 22.4% -£8.66 -11.4%
S Williams 8 36 22.2% +£34.13 +94.8%
Sir M Stoute 54 252 21.4% -£5.28 -2.1%
J Gosden 35 175 20.0% -£22.93 -13.1%
J Noseda 11 55 20.0% -£8.04 -14.6%
M Jarvis 25 128 19.5% +£21.96 +17.2%
A O’Brien 4 21 19.0% +£7.03 +33.5%
N Callaghan 9 50 18.0% +£0.12 +0.2%
M Johnston 37 207 17.9% +£7.54 +3.6%
C Wall 12 67 17.9% +£30.25 +45.1%
S Bin Suroor 15 87 17.2% -£7.57 -8.7%

Ripon – All Races (best strike rates)

Trainer Wins Runs SR Profit ROI
H Cecil 11 31 35.5% +£7.25 +23.4%
M Jarvis 14 43 32.6% +£8.45 +19.7%
M Tregoning 7 22 31.8% +£3.29 +15%
B Hills 34 109 31.2% +£21.05 +19.3%
J Gosden 10 37 27% -£9.56 -25.8%
J Dunlop 21 78 26.9% -£11.25 -14.4%
Sir M Stoute 13 54 24.1% -£19.76 -36.6%
T Tate 13 58 22.4% +£99.08 +170.8%
P Cole 5 23 21.7% +£9.81 +42.6%
J Fanshawe 8 38 21.1% -£5.70 -15%
M Tompkins 9 46 19.6% +£16.5 +35.9%
R Hannon 5 26 19.2% +£4.57 +17.6%
C Brittain 6 32 18.8% +£16.5 +51.6%

Haydock – All Races (best strike rates)

Trainer Wins Runs SR Profit ROI
H  Cecil 15 49 30.6% +£12.45 +25.4%
M Jarvis 49 175 28.0% +£69.25 +39.6%
Sir M Stoute 23 90 25.6% +£13.51 +15.0%
Sir M Prescott 14 56 25.0% +£0.69 +1.2%
M Tregoning 8 33 24.2% +£18.08 +54.8%
W Haggas 22 94 23.4% +£25.69 +27.3%
Mrs A Duffield 8 36 22.2% +£2.75 +7.6%
L Cumani 22 104 21.2% +£10.54 +10.1%
Mrs L Stubbs 7 33 21.2% +£20.00 +60.6%
M Quinlan 4 20 20.0% +£8.16 +40.8%

Leicester – All Races (best strike rates)

Trainer Wins Runs SR Profit ROI
S Bin Suroor 19 54 35.2% -£3.90 -7.2%
J Noseda 8 24 33.3% +£5.36 +22.3%
P Chapple-Hyam 12 40 30.0% +£77.04 +192.6%
M Tregoning 10 35 28.6% +£43.86 +125.3%
H Cecil 20 79 25.3% +£18.15 +23.0%
L Cumani 21 97 21.6% +£20.80 +21.4%
J Bethell 10 48 20.8% +£31.50 +65.6%
J Fanshawe 23 114 20.2% +£24.83 +21.8%

HOT TRAINERS (trainers who are currently in good form) – J.Gosden, W. Swinburn, B Hills, J Boyle, H Cecil, P Chappell-Hyam, P Evans, T Dascombe, R Fahey, T Barron

Horses with decent course records – none
Strong sire stats -

Lewyn (5.40 Haydock) – Exceed and Excel 2yos over 5f SR 24%

Crown (5.40 Haydock) – Royal Applause 2yos in 5f maidens class 5 or lower SR 22.5%; ROI +35%

For two other horses today, keep an eye on the going / weather. In the unlikely event the going goes soft or heavy at Leicester or Sandown, two horses are likely to run well due to solid sire stats in the mud:

Regal Parade (3.40 Leicester) ***** ONLY ON SOFT/HEAVY

Virtual (3.45 Sandown) ***** ONLY ON SOFT/HEAVY Negative Sire stats -

Kate Skate (5.40 Haydock) – Poor sire stat – Mark of Esteem 2yo non handicaps over 5f SR 3.3% ROI loss -71.3%

Pace information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Ripon 5f (2.55) Leaders 2.5 Prominent / chased leaders 1.1 Hold up / behind 0.45 Front runners have an advantage. Hold up horses are at a big disadvantage.

Most likely front runners drawn low are Mr Wolf (drawn 1); Nomoreblondes (drawn 3); most likely front runner drawn high is Speedy Senorita (drawn 17)

Horses noted 2 or more sections – None (unless the going goes soft/heavy then VIRTUAL in the 3.45 Sandown would qualify under 2 sections)

Racing Trends
Saturday, 25-Apr-2009

www.RacingTrends.co.uk