3.05 Cheltenham – International Hurdle – 2 miles 1f (Grade 2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 7 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 for a profit of £4.69 (ROI +42.6%).
Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts (this stretches back to the last 17 renewals).
LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record producing 6 winners from 20 for a profit of £33.79 (+169%). Indeed focusing on the runners that raced in the Greatwood Hurlde LTO this improves to 5 wins from 11 for a profit of £40.42 (ROI +367.4%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 23.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 16 qualifiers.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4 years olds have won 2 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 13.3%),5 year olds have won 4 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 26.7%); 6 year olds have won 1 race from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 14 qualifiers (SR 14.3%); 8 year olds and older have won 1 race from 16 qualifiers (SR 6.3%).

Trends analysis: the best starting point looks to be horses that finished in the first three LTO as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. From there, look for horses that have won at least once in their last four starts. Horses that ran at Cheltenham last time out have a good record, especially those that ran in the Greatwood hurdle LTO.. Favourites also have a very good record. From a negative perspective, horses beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO look worth avoiding. In terms of age, 5 year olds have done well.

Provided by www.RacingTrends.co.uk

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