Sandown Horse Racing Tip

Our regular Saturday free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician Site is below

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A pleasing result last weekend with Bob’s Worth
winning the Hennessy Gold Cup for us.

For full members today I have a firm bet at good odds advised
in the 2.45 race.
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Full Service Christmas Sale is NOW On !

See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

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Here on the free blog I have popped up a race from slightly lower down the pecking order on my main message.

Sandown  2.30

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-12-08/sandown-park/14-30/betting/

* This is a 0-147 handicap hurdle over 2 Miles
* There has been 19 renewals of this race
* There has been 58 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 58 Handicaps at 2m in Class 2-Listed-Grade 3
* Past winners had 4 5 4 9 26 7 5 6 11 7 Hurdle runs
* There is only one past winner with more than 11 runs
* That race (2006) was a falsely run race in a crawl
* Clearly horses with 4-11 hurdle races are best
* The past winners had the following days absence
* 21 28 21 6 6 28 15 9 27 13
* Past winners had these number of runs that season
* 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 4
* A recent run is important in this race
* You want a lightly raced hurdler with a recent run
* You also want a younger horse as well
* Horses aged 8 or more have a miserable 1-67 record
* PETIT ROBIN is a 9yo and I feel too risky
* He has Topweight and that bothers me as well
* Lightweights have a much better record
* Only 1 winner had more than 11st 5lbs
* That was in 2009 a poor renewal with a false pace
* STARLUCK has too much weight for 15 hurdle runs
* You want an in form horse as well
* 16 of 19 past winners of this were 1-2-3-4-5 last time
* Only one was beaten more than 12 lengths last time
* That came in a Graded race as welll
* RAJAMAND is out as a seasonal debutant
* HELIUM is too exposed
* ROWAN TIGER – I wanted a better last run
* SOFTSONG – Not keen as a 4yo from a novice hurdle
* Especially beaten last time out and so lightly raced
* I think there are better options
* DOLATULO – Didnt think he had proven enough
* SWAMPFIRE is 4 and from a Novice Handicap
* There was 1 winner aged 4 doing that
* That horse had Grade 1 form and he doesnt
* SWAMPFIRE is therefore unsafe but respected
* INTO WAIN – I cant find a good stat against him
* I dont like the fact he raced recently on the flat
* Very few do that and It undermines their chance

Shortlist

* MONTE CAVALLO has enough to shortlist
* Not many 7yo’s are as lightly raced though

* CANADIAN DIAMOND is 5 from a Novice Handicap
* The 2008 winner was similar from the same race
* CANADIAN DIAMOND has enough to shortlist

* IFANDBUTWHYNOT also comes from this race
* Lots to like in his profile and has to go well
* The only downside is he is shorter than ideal
* Because of that he’s a saver not a selection

Selection

70% of stake Win MONTE CAVALLO 10/1  victor chandler stan james ( who both offer best odds guarantee )

30% of stake Saver IFANDBUTWHYNOT 3/1  bet 365 Ladbrokes William Hill ( who all offer best odds guarantee )

 

Big Priced Each Way Bets

A couple of big priced each way bets suggested today by Guy from the Mathematician Website.

to visit his site click here ==> Free Horse Racing Tips

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Only Musselburgh on the Flat today and that track wouldn’t
make my list of favourite tracks. Kempton is on the sand a
tough competetive card but we are short of flat cards today.
I have dipped into a National Hunt race but the advice below
I would not steam into with big cash.

Next week will be a huge week. There is a Bank Holiday.
Some very big trend races. There is a Grand National.
I will be stronger at Aintree this year than ever before
witha  huge ammount of pre research already done.

T o d a y ‘s  O p t i o n s

I could have had some shorter priced bets but I didnt want
that. Equally some of my bigger priced options overreach
a little and I am resigned to having a very quiet Saturday
knowing full well we will fire up dramatically next week.
Being a Saturday I will highlight one bet. I’ve a negative
in the 4.05pm and the two obvious alternatives are short
of what I want. There are two very big prices in the race.

Haydock 4.05

VINTAGE STAR 16/1 Each Way

DIZZY RIVER  16/1 Each Way

You can get 18/1 and 20/1 in the offices and both will
be bigger on Betfair. I you bet both each way we have
only got to get one placed to break level and I feel we
could do better than that. Novice Handicaps are quite
complicated but my angles offer encouragement and I
think on a dangerous Saturday we should keep it tight
and wait for Grand National week where tracks suit me.

S t r o n g e s t   S t a t i s t i c   T o d a y

H a y d o c k   4.05

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* In Thursdays message I gave a good Stat in a similar race
* I want to give another interesting statistic here
* It involves FOURTH ESTATE who fails my angles

* Novice Handicap Hurdles in March and April
* Between 2m 3f – 2m 4f – 2m 5f
* Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles over 2m 2f or less
* I found the odd winner with many years ago
* None were like FOURTH ESTATE though
* Those that won last time out were 0-38
* That strikes me as quite a telling statictic
* The record of these horses since 1998 was poor
* None of them had just 1-2 runs that year like him
* FOURTH ESTATE has a weak profile in my view

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* In Thursdays message I gave a good Stat in a similar race
* I want to give another interesting statistic here
* It involves FOURTH ESTATE who fails some angles

* Novice Handicap Hurdles in March and April
* Between 2m 3f – 2m 4f – 2m 5f
* Horses coming from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
* Horses coming up in trip from 2m 2f or less
* I found the odd winner with many years ago
* None were like FOURTH ESTATE though
* Those that won last time out were 0-38
* That strikes me as quite a telling statictic
* The record of these horses since 1998 was poor
* None of them had just 1-2 runs that year like him
* FOURTH ESTATE has a weak profile in my view

I think the race is set up for an each way alternative.
I do not want CHADFORD from a 4yo race. KINGS LODGE
and EYRE APPARENT didnt run well enough last time.

* SYDNEY PAGET – 5yo from a novice hurdle
* He has an absence of over 7 weeks
* I found a 2-54 record from these types
* None like SYDNEY PAGET won last time out
* None carried more than 10st 9lbs and he has 11st 10lbs
* SYDNEY PAGET feels unsafe to me
* PINEROLO – Overall positive but not brilliant
* VINTAGE STAR – Hard to read but overall positive
* DIZZY RIVER – Shortlistable and not a bad price
* PERSIAN SNOW – I’d prefer more runs this season
* I found a 7yo winner like him but not 6yo
* GRANDADS HORSE – Comes out as a potential e/w bet
* GRANDADS HORSE – Weight could be his biggest flaw
* All the similar winners had marginally lighter weights

Selection

Split Stake Bet

* VINTAGE STAR 20/1 Each Way S James
* DIZZY RIVER  20/1 Each Way  S James

* Only 1 needs to place to return stakes
* Every £10 bet means £2.50 each way on both horses

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Betting Advice For Ascot

Guy’s good run came unstuck last weekend.

He finally had a losing weekend after five winning weekend’s in a row for us here.

Read below his suggested betting advice for today.

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A s c o t   2.35

4/1 Smad Place, 5/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Ciceron
6/1 Shoreacres, 13/2 Joseph Lister, 7/1 Royal Charm
12/1 Pateese, 16/1 Orzare, 16/1 Rowan Tiger
20/1 Tara Rose.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* Statistically there are only 5 renewals to consider
* 5 year olds have  yet to win this race.
* SMAD PLACE wouldnt interest me because of that
* Especially not first time out when not 100% fit
* JOSEPH LISTER is also rejected as a 5yo
* He looks short of runs with just 3 hurdle races
* You would have thought lightly raced hurdlers are best
* Thats not the case in this race
* Winners had 16 12 32 20 17 previous hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* ROWAN TIGER is out with 4 runs from a Novice Hurdle
* A BRIDGE TOO FAR has only had 6 hurdle starts
* Without Graded backclass I dont see a strong case
* TARA ROSE – Rejected as a mare with just 4 runs
* ORZARE wouldnt interest me first time out
* ROYAL CHARM doesnt offer me enough
* Not keen that he comes from a Chase
* Not sure he is fit enough
* Not convinced he is weighted to win anyway
* CICERON – I thought he had a fair chance
* CICERON is potentially a saver
* PATEESE – Comes here after well beaten last time
* He had excuses and should strip fitter
* Not long ago he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle
* I think he is worth a saver

S e l e c t i o n

SHOREACRES

I like the chance of SHOREACRES. He has had 2 Hurdle
starts since switching from Chasing. He never really took
to fences but did manage a win from 8 Chase starts. Look
back before he went Chasing. This horse managed a 4th
in the Champion Bumper and a decent 7th in a Supreme
Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. That shows he has plenty
of class. He then went Chasing with limited success but a
couple of hurdle runs recently shows me he can win this.
He does have fewer hurdle runs than all past winners did
but he is plenty experienced because of his chasing races.
I think his last two runs show him in top form and with
a strong form chance. He likes right handed tracks and
is very fit and it’s hard to see him being far away here.

Selection

SHOREACRES Some 7/1 and 13/2 was available earlier when full members got this.
11/2 now top bookmaker price at Ladbrokes, Bet365 and VC
Each way I would suggest

Or alternately if you like bet it on the nose with a saver bet on
PATEESE at 10/1 Bet365 Betfred sky Ladbrokes BoyleSports

For more info on my private service see here ==> Betting Advice

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Racing Advice For Warwick

Our usual free horse racing tip from Guy over at the Mathematician Site is below.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Free Horse Racing Tips

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SERVICE NEWS

There are 69 days to the Cheltenham Festival. In
aviation terms the National Hunt flight takes off
in November with the Destination Cheltenham in
March. We have been through the turbulance of
weeks 1 and 2 in January where the racing is poor
and one of the bumpiest parts of the trip. Now as
we come to weeks 3 and 4 in January the flight is
now starting a gradual descent down to destination.
During that descent passangers will be able to see
some great landmarks like the Tote Gold Trophy
now known sadly as the Betfair hurdle. There is
the Skybet Chase – The Victor Chandler at Ascot
and many other statistically strong races. We are
entering Ante Post Season now which is always a
lot more interesting than the drudgery you get on
the Sand and the lower grade national hunt cards.
I plan to do full statistical previews for all the big
trials and I always get excited at this time of year.

SATURDAY’S RACING

The horse I am most excited about today
and the strongest bet advised today to Full Members,
runs in a very early race today. I will leave metioning it here
on the free betting blog.

For the free tip today we are off to Warwick for one of the later races.

W a r w i c k   3.40

5/1 Sona Sasta, 6/1 Neptune Equester, 7/1 Blazing Bailey
7/1 Strongbows Legend, 8/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Faasel
10/1 Hey Big Spender, Bench Warrent 14/1 Fredo
14/1 Morning Moment,16/1 On Borrowed Wings
20/1 Hello Bud 20/1 Miko De Beauchene.

* The Classic Chase is a high class 3m 5f Handicap Chase
* There are 20 similar races at this time of year.
* Not a great stats race as it has changed over the years
* There is a small sample size of these races as well
* MORNING MOMENT – Not for me 8lbs out of the weights
* All recent winners had more backclass than him
* His last run was poor and he has a weak profile
* Only 2 winners overcame heavy defeats to win similar races
* They all had Backclass in Graded races and he doesnt
* I’d also argue he may not stay this far
* MIKO DE BEAUCHENE looks wrong aged 12
* He has not ran a good race in over 2 years
* He is out of the handicap and offers nothing
* FAASEL is 11 and has a miserable profile
* I dont want to bet an exposed 11yo first time out
* I looked at every race in January
* Thats every distance , every class and any kind of race
* I looked at exposed horses aged 11 or more first time
* None managed to win beyond 3 Miles
* None managed to win beyond a Class 4 race
* The only Handicap Chase winner was 2m 5f in Class 4
* FAASEL has a very hard task in my view
* He has never won beyond 2m 5f before either
* HEY BIG SPENDER comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* That hurts his profile and so does his weight
* Horses with 11st 8lbs in this race were 0-17
* HEY BIG SPENDER also has to prove he stays this far
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 3f yet
* BENCH WARRENT comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* He may struggle to get over a hard race at Chepstow
* Statistically I can live with him
* I cant forgive him a hard 4th in the Welsh National
* Not with a very inexperienced jockey
* ON BORROWED WINGS comes from 22f
* No winners did that in any similar race in January
* His last Chase was only in a Novice Handicap
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* FREDO is exposed and doesnt do it for me
* No exposed horse won when  aged 8
* None won when coming from 3m or shorter either
* FREDO also has to show he stays
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* HELLO BUD is too old aged 14
* I looked at every winner aged 13 or more over 3m 2f +
* Thats in any race and at any time of year
* There was only 1 winner beyond a Class 3 race
* That was Spot The Difference in a Cross Country Chase
* Out of form aged 14 he is not worth betting
* BLAZING BAILEY comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* I can accept the argument he is a class horse
* And that he will like the ground and the drop in class
* You can also argue he didnt have too hard a race at Chepstow
* Statistically though he is not strong
* I looked at all exposed horses running within a month
* They had a bad record and none ran as badly as him last time

S h o r t l i s t

* MAJOR MALARKEY has 1 run this season
* Thats easily my biggest problem with him
* Past winners had  1 2 3 2 6 2 4 runs that season
* Last years winner was a 9yo with 1 run this year
* That really does help his profile
* Last years winner also had 9 Chase starts like him
* Last years winner helpsm to gets him shortlisted
* Without that evidence I’d have opposed him
* Still bothers me he’s the only horse with 1 run

* STRONGBOWS LEGEND is hard to read aged 7
* All 7 year old winners were placed last time
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND Fell which isnt a good preparation
* Ignore that and he won 25 lengths before that
* This is said to be a very well handicapped horse
* His lack of backclass bothers me a bit
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND has no form beyond Class 3 grade
* The last 7 winners all had Graded form
* Almost every similar winner had more backclass too
* He is 5lbs out of the handicap as well
* I like him a lot but not sure if he has the class

* SONA SASTA has 5 Chase starts
* We have had recent winners with 4 and 6 chase starts
* I’d have liked a slighly better last run
* I can overlook that as he hasn’t done much wrong
* If the grounds right he must be a player
* He has to prove he stays this far though
* Thats not certain on his breeding

* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – No strong problems with him
* He did the right thing avoiding the Welsh National
* I dont see why he shouldnt go well

Selection

NEPTUNE EQUESTER 13/2 Each Way

13/2 available at Bet365

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-14/warwick/15-40/betting/

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Trends For Cheltenham

3.05 Cheltenham – International Hurdle – 2 miles 1f (Grade 2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 7 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 for a profit of £4.69 (ROI +42.6%).
Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts (this stretches back to the last 17 renewals).
LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record producing 6 winners from 20 for a profit of £33.79 (+169%). Indeed focusing on the runners that raced in the Greatwood Hurlde LTO this improves to 5 wins from 11 for a profit of £40.42 (ROI +367.4%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 23.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 16 qualifiers.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4 years olds have won 2 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 13.3%),5 year olds have won 4 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 26.7%); 6 year olds have won 1 race from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 14 qualifiers (SR 14.3%); 8 year olds and older have won 1 race from 16 qualifiers (SR 6.3%).

Trends analysis: the best starting point looks to be horses that finished in the first three LTO as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. From there, look for horses that have won at least once in their last four starts. Horses that ran at Cheltenham last time out have a good record, especially those that ran in the Greatwood hurdle LTO.. Favourites also have a very good record. From a negative perspective, horses beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO look worth avoiding. In terms of age, 5 year olds have done well.

Provided by www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Chepstow Racing Tip

A good effort from Guy last week in the Hennessy with each way advised Planet Of Sound coming 2nd.   It was particulary sweet for those who followed the highlighted race offer from Betfred as

#1 Their best odds guantee paid out the 14/1 Starting price not the 12/1 early price

#2 The offer on that race returned the win bet stake if your horse finished second.

See Hennessy Gold Cup

On to today and other free racing tip from Guy.

Interesting one this as it demonstrates the use of each way at shortish odds.

Most mug punters only consider each way if the place returns a net profit on a bet. eg 5/1 plus or more is a typical mug punter cut off point for each way.

Mathematically however such an idea is not correct.

Short odds horses can be great value each way in the right circumstances.

To visit Guys site click here ==> Betting Advice

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C h e p s t o w  1.30

2/1 Curtain Razer, 9/4 Knock A Hand, 7/2 Rojo Vivo
7/1 Diamond Sweeper, 14/1 Gores Island
16/1 Caulfields Venture, 33/1 Finnegan Paddy
33/1 The Bear Trap, Wheres Wal, Chesil Beach Boy
40/1 Le Chasse Spleen, Young Jim, Caught Inthe Light
66/1 Malin Head, 100/1 Waywood Princess
200/1 Radmores Sam Evans.

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle
* ROJO VIVO comes from a Bumper last year
* Not a good enough profile to go with him
* The 5yo’s doing that best had 1-2 runs and he has 4
* Not a negative but there are better profiles
* DIAMOND SWEEPER – Unsafe despite the above profile
* He hasn’t yet achieved enough
* GORES ISLAND – Very weak profile
* CAULFIELDS VENTURE – Not enough I like
* CURTAIN RAZER didnt impress me statistically
* I looked at 5 year olds from Novice Hurdles
* One career run and One that season
* There were 3 winners with that profile
* These 3 winners all came from 2m races though
* Those however from 17f or more were 0-70
* Could be a statistical blip but he fails that
* CURTAIN RAZER is opposed

Selection

KNOCK A HAND Each Way 3/1 +

* KNOCK A HAND looks the safest choice
* Unorthodox profile aged 6 winning a maiden hurdle
* I found 2 horses with his profile and one of them won
* KNOCK A HAND has a better profile than the rest

When KNOCK A HAND won last time over 2m 4f on
Heavy ground it was his sires first National Hunt winner
on soft or heavy ground over 2m 4f. I am hoping that’s
something he can repeat. If he can’t then horses with a
weaker profile like Curtain Razer and Rojo Vivo will go
on and win. If he can repeat that and he does truly get
the trip on the ground then he has the strongest chance.
In a nicely framed race he looks the percentage call e/w.

* KNOCK A HAND 10/3  BoyleSports William Hill  Each Way is my selection

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Aintree Trends and Statistics

The below comes from Dave over at Racing Trends.

Stats are based on ten years historical data.

You can read more from Dave at this link  Horse Racing Blog

Saturday

1.45 John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 2m4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners started in the first two of the betting. Second favourites have won 5 races (PROFIT of £14.08; ROI +156.4%).
Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/2 or shorter.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
LTO race: 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival and all 5 had finished sixth or better.
Races in current season: 8 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had five runners and 3 have won (1 placed).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 20/1+: 0 wins from 44 (only 3 placed).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 15 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 27 runners (only 2 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 5, 2, F, 4, 3, 1/2, 5, 3, 5, 1
Age: 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (although they made up 66% of the runners).

Trends Summary: 5 and 6yos dominate the race but they do provide the majority of the runners. Second favourites have performed very well winning half the races, while a decent effort at Cheltenham LTO is another positive. Most of the winners had run at least four times that season which is a further positive to bear in mind. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race so any runner from the stable requires close scrutiny.





2.15 Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Race LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter (9 winners were 4/1 or shorter).
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners were first or second in the betting. Second favourites have won 6 renewals (PROFIT of £12.33; ROI +112.1%).
Breeding: 5 of the last 10 winners were French bred (6 others were placed).
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had 4 winners in the past 10 renewals (5 in last 12).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price 13/2+: 0 wins from 43 (only 4 placed).
Breeding: British bred runners have provided 0 winners from 16 with only 1 placed runner.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins, 6 seconds from 10.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2

Trends Summary: The best starting point is to look for horses that ran in the Arkle Chase LTO as they have provided 80% of the winners from around 50% of the total runners. The market has been a very strong indicator also with no winner priced over 6/1. Indeed there have been 9 winners priced 4/1 or shorter. In terms of breeding Feench breds definitely have an edge while British bred runners have struggled. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race.





2.50 John Smith’s Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Recent form: 5 of the last 10 winners finished out of the frame / fell LTO.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 12/1 or shorter.
Trainers: 6 of the last 10 winners (60%) were trained in Ireland. Irish raiders have accounted for only a quarter of the total runners).
Jockeys: Ruby Walsh has had 3 wins from 6 rides in the race; Timmy Murphy has had 3 wins from 8.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Headgear: 0 wins from 25 runners for horses with any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue ties).
Price 14/1+: 0 wins from 47 (4 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12, but 5 others have finished second.
Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 7, 2, 1/2, F, 2, 10, 1/2, 4, 3
Breeding: Irish bred runners do have a slight edge having won 6 races (60%) from 40% of the total runners.

Trends Summary: Horses priced 12/1 or shorter have dominated the race while a good run LTO is not a necessity. Irish runners have an outstanding record in the race not just in the last 10 years but stretching back to the mid 70s. Irish breds perform above the norm, while horses wearing headgear have a poor record.





3.25 John Smith’s Handicap Chase 3m 1f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Class: 9 of the last 10 winnershad raced in Graded company in their careers.
Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least one of their last six starts.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has won the race 3 times (4 if you go back an extra year); Nicky Henderson has won the race twice.
Running style: Hold up horses have done well in this race with 6 wins from the last 10 renewals.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Course winners: Course winners are 0 from 25 with just 3 placed.
Career starts: Horses that had raced 25 times or more in their careers have provided just 1 win from 47 (LOSS of £41.50; ROI -88.3%).
LTO run: Horses that failed to finish on their previous start have provided 0 winners from 31.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a small loss.
Finishing positions of favourites: P, 1, 3, 5, 2, 4/P, 1, F, PU, 4
Course LTO: 6 of the 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO from 60 runners (SR 10%); horses that did not race at the festival have provided 4 winners from 93 (SR 4.3%).

Trends Summary: Not the strongest races of the meeting as far as trends are concerned. It is best to focus on horses that have won at least once in their last six runs, and have run in Graded company at some point in their careers. Any horses trained by Jonjo O’Neill needs close scrutiny, while Nicky Henderson has a decent record also. In terms of negatives, avoid horses that have 25 times or more in their careers and/or any horse that failed to finish LTO. Finally, horses that ran at the Cheltenham festival have a much better chance of winning than those that did not.





4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced 20/1 or shorter. Hence 70% of the winners have come from 29% of the runners.
Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further – this stat holds true right back to 1970.
Age: 9 and 10yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners (70%) from just under 50% of the runners.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.
Breeding: 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 96 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from 30 and none have finished in the first four – indeed 23 have failed to complete the course). 13yo and older runners are rare but all 10 have been soundly beaten.
Price 40/1+: 1 win from 188 qualifiers.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 55, with 3 further finishing placed (LOSS of £47.00; ROI -85.5%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 20.
Finishing positions of favourites: F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R, 1/6, 7, 1/4
Trainers: 4 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland.

Trends Summary: Mon Mome was a shock 100/1 winner two years ago but overall big priced runners should be ignored. One stat that goes back to 1970 is concerned with the fact that all winners had won over 3 miles or further in their careers. Irish trainers deserve respect also as they have provided 40% of the winners from less than 20% of the total runners. In terms of weight, horses carrying bigger weights (11st 2lb or more) have a poor record although Don’t Push It bucked the trend last year carrying 11st 5lb to victory. In terms of age it looks best to avoid horses aged 8 or younger.





4.55 John Smith’s Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 2m ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 20/1.
Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 10st 10lb or less.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 0 wins from 10.
Market: The top three in the betting have provided 0 winners.
Official ratings: Horses with an OR of 133 or more have provided 1 winner from 43 (LOSS of £31.00; ROI -72.1%).
Weights: The top seven in the weights have provided only 2 winners from 74.
Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 22 runners but 0 winners (only 3 placed).

GENERAL STATS

Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 15, F, 2, 13, 15, 8, PU, 18, 8
Age: 6 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (16 out of the last 20 going back a further 10 years). However, they do make up a fair proportion of the total runners.

Trends Summary: On the face of it there seem to be limited trends, but horses carrying 10st 10lb or less that are priced between 7/1 and 20/1 is a starting point at least.





5.30 Champion Standard National Hunt Flat Race 2m 1f

The race was not run in 2007 so I have gone back an extra year.

POSITIVE TRENDS

Season’s form: 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least once that season.
Market: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced 25/1 or bigger.
Age: 6yos have a decent record with 5 wins from 38 (PROFIT of £104.25; ROI +274.3%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Horses from the top 8 of the betting have won just 3 of the 10 races.
Age: Horses aged 4 have provided just 1 winner from 59 (LOSS £44.00; ROI -74.6%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins, 3 placed from 11.
Finishing positions of favourites: 8, 1, 1, 14, 3, 4, 4, 3/20, 2, 19

Trends Summary: With the last 5 of the last 7 winners having been priced 25/1 or bigger this is not an easy finale. 6yos have a good record having won 50% of the races from 19% of the total runners. So a big priced 6yo is probably the value call.

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Racing Tip For Warwick

Believe it or not this is just a snippet from a much more comprehensive members message from Guy over at Mathematician Betting.

To visit his site click here ==> Horse Betting Advice

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TODAY’S BEST BET

WARWICK 1.40

THE QUANTUM KID 10/1

Each Way

I have 4 additional bets for full members and all 4
could have beencontenders for my best bet today.
I have decided that a couple of these are short
enough prices in their races and the other pair
and in tough races so I have decided to go with
a bit of value today.

I like the Novice Handicap at Warwick and have
been playing some videos here. Complicated race
but I am convinced you want a Novice Hurdler in
ths sort of race that is lightly raced and ideally a
lighter weighted horse. I think ART BROKER is
my biggest danger around 6/1 and could have the
ability to go very close on his flat form. I’d drawn
more towards THE QUANTUM KID 10/1 here.

I liked him a lot on Video last time. He should be
thrown in off a mark of 98. His last run was in an
unusually warm Southwell Novice Hurdle when he
led jumping really well and only got caught 2 out.
That run was bound to have been needed after an
absence. The horses beating him are different class
and rated much higher than any of todays rivals.

Trainer Robin Dickin said last year that he wanted
to get the horse handicapped. He had a pelvis injury
so had time off last year but his last run tells me he’s
capable of winning off this mark. His trainer won the
race last year. He has a good record at his local track.
There is a little bit of market support as well which
doesn’t hurt. I feel there is optimism that he can go
very close in a bad race at a decent price. I will risk
him as my best bet today rather than the obvious.

WARWICK 1.40

Warwick Supports The Racing Lottery
Novices´ Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-110)  2m

7/2 Shalambar, 11/2 Art Broker, 13/2 Switched Off
13/2 Tara Warrior, 10/1 Kayfton Pete, 10/1 Peace Corps
12/1 Jomade, 12/1 Mega Watt, 12/1 Nosecond Chance
16/1 Hail Caesar, 16/1 Irish Symphony, The Quantum Kid
20/1 Superior Knight, 33/1 Cruise Control.

This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle. There are 36 similar races at this time of year.
SHALAMBAR is a 5 year old and I think the wrong type of 5 year old.
First of all 5 year olds that won last time out were 0-14 and those that placed last time are 0-29.
Horses aged 5 from Handicaps had a weak 1-48 record.
The 5 year olds you want are lightly raced types unplaced in a Novice
Hurdle last time and SHALAMBAR is not that type so I want to oppose him.
HAIL CAESAR is also the wrong type of 5 year old.
I think CRUISE CONTROL has too much to do.
I feel SUPERIOR KNIGHT has stamina doubts.
Horses coming from Novice Hurdles are fine assuming certain conditions.
The Novice Hurdlers all had fewer runs than TARA WARRIOR
so he looks vulnerable and none won with his absence and that’s enough
to take him out. IRISH SYMPHONY is a mare and I don’t think in good enough form.
MEGA WATT comes out badly. I cut him some slack down in trip but his profile is
not safe enough. I dont like JOMADE hammered at 100/1 in his
Novice Hurdle last time. KAYFTON PETE is a little exposed
for a 5 year old to come from a Novice Hurdle especially with no
Graded form and such a high weight. A shortlist of 4 horses.

PEACE CORPS – Impossible to read. First run for new stable

SWITCHED OFF – Shortlistable but not quite right

NOSECOND CHANCE – Acceptable Profile but big weight

ART BROKER – There are similar winners

THE QUANTUM KID – The right type of profile

I have listed these in order of profile. PEACE CORPS is
the most riSky. SWITCHED OFF has a slightly better one.
NOSECONDCHANCE can’t be ruled out. Best profile for
me is ART BROKER and THE QUANTUM KID both of
these lightly raced Novice Hurdlers.  Impossible to know
how much of their ability has been hidden or how much
they will be showing today. Both Trainers have angles I
like here. I think ART BROKER is the biggest danger.

SELECTION

THE QUANTUM KID EACH WAY 10/1

Blog Comment:
10/1 was available earlier when this was provided to Mathematician members.

Best Bookmaker Price now 8/1 at numerous places eg Ladbrokes Hills Bet365

See http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-02-12/warwick/13-40/betting/

PS This free blog just gets small snippets.

The above is only a small part of todays full message.

National Hunt Horse Racing Statistics

National Hunt Horse Racing Statistics

As Michael Caine would say ..”not a lot of people know that”

Knowing more than most is a great position to be in when making betting decissions.

The info below is a snippet from todays message from Dave Renham’s RacingTrends Service.

It is a mere snippet.

His full message coantains much much more about favourite stats, trainer stats and draw bias etc.

RacignTrends is well worth a look if you are thinking punter who likes to do your own thing instead of blindly following tips. You will find Dave’s research a  great aid giving you racing insights most others do not have access to.

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POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

4.30    Ayr – King Sandor **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

1.20    Newbury – Oasis Knight: N Henderson – hurdle races; off track for 6 months or more; class 2 or lower; SR 34% ROI +46% (win & pl 54%)

2.25    Newbury – Riverside Theatre **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

3.35    Newbury – Tiger O’toole **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

2.40    Warwick – Kilmurry **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

3.45    Warwick – Alfie Sherrin **: J O’Neill – novice/beginner chases must be priced 8/1 or shorter; NOT Grade 1 tracks SR 31% ROI +19% (win & pl 52%)

4.55    Warwick – Dark Shadow: N Henderson – 4yos on debut SR 36% ROI +36% (win & pl 57%)

4.55    Warwick – Theatre Guide **: Positive Sire Stats – King’s Theatre NH racing must be top 2 in the betting SR 34% ROI +14%) (win & pl 62%)

NEGATIVE STATS -

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

5.05    Ayr – Glengap: Poor Sire Stats – Needle Gun in hurdles races; SR 4% ROI -74% (win & pl 21%)

4.05    Newbury – Jokers Legacy **: Poor Trainer Stat – T Vaughan – horses wearing headgear; must be 3rd or bigger in the betting; SR 5% ROI -64% (win & pl 20%)

4.40    Newbury – Star Neuville **: Poor jockey stat – A Mc Coy in bumpers; horses MUST BE priced 5/1 or bigger SR 4% ROI -70% (win & pl 19%)

Cheltenham Racing Advice

A small snippet from todays message from the excellent www.RacingTrends.co.uk

3.35 Cheltenham – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market position: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top four in the betting.
LTO course: 6 of the last 10 winners raced at either Cheltenham or Haydock last time out.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.
Beaten favourites: 13 beaten favourites have contested this race and 6 have won. Backing all runners would have produced a huge profit of £39.73 (ROI +305.6%).
Course form: 6 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham.
Sex: Mares / fillies have had just 2 runners but both won!
Career wins: Horses with 6 or more career wins have provided 6 of the winners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 3 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 and backing all selections would have produced a loss of £4.90 (ROI -44.5%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worst LTO have provided just 2 winners from 32 for a loss of £15.00 (ROI -46.9%).
Headgear: Horses wearing headgear have managed just 1 win from 20.
Price: All 28 horses priced 20/1 or bigger have been beaten. Only two of them have been placed (both 3rd).

GENERAL STATS

Trainers: Two wins apiece for Alan King and Howard Johnson.
Age: 5 year olds have provided 3 wins from 11 qualifiers (SR 27.3%); 6 year olds have provided 1 win from 18 qualifiers (SR 5.6%); 7 year olds have provided 1 win from 17 qualifiers (SR 5.9%); 8 year olds have provided 1 win from 13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%); 9 year olds have provided 4 wins from 14 qualifiers (SR 28.6%); 10 year olds or older have provided 0 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: favourites have struggled in recent years with just 1 win in the last 6 seasons. However, in general is a decent guide with 8 of the last 10 winners coming from the top four of the betting. Horses that raced at Cheltenham or Haydock last time out have done well as have beaten favourites. It also pays to look for a decent run LTO and a horse that has numerous career wins to his/her name. Female runners are rare but the 2 runners have both won. In terms of age, horses aged 10 or older have struggled (only 1 placed effort from 15 runners).