The following comes from Guy over at the Mathematician site

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N e w m a r k e t 5.00

(8) GOLDEN DESERT 18/1

Each Way Bet

* Do not mix the name up with another horse
* Another horse in the same race has a similar name.
* The bet is Number 8 on the card Golden Desert

I’ve gone with GOLDEN DESERT and He is one of
those bets that you know is unsafe but his price does
compensate for that. He is knocking in a bit aged 7
and hasn’t won for 2 years and it’s not hard to see a
couple of younger horses beating him. That said it’s
a race with a lot of good negatives. There are some
very good reasons why he might win this race. I see
promise in his last run where I flagged him up before
the race at 20/1. He ran well last time and although
I wouldnt have tipped him at 8/1 the 18/1 is far too
big as is the 20/1 on Betfair so going with him today.

N e w m a r k e t 5.00

Betfred The Bonus King Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

4/1 Asraab, 13/2 White Frost, 8/1 Bonnie Brae
8/1 Golden Delicious, 10/1 Lutine Bell
12/1 Axiom, 12/1 Mr David, 14/1 Elna Bright
14/1 Gallagher, 16/1 Citrus Star, 16/1 Mia4s Boy
16/1 Woodcote Place, 20/1 Golden Desert
25/1 Space Station, 25/1 Striking Spirit.

* This is a 0-98 handicap over 7 furlongs
* Newmarket has had 22 similar races at this time of year
* There has been 68 similar races at other tracks
* I think the Draw Shows you want a Middle Draw
* I would be worried about horses drawn very low
* I would also be worried about horses drawn very high
* I predict the winner will be drawn between 3 and 14
* STRIKING SPIRIT is not well drawn in Stall 16
* I didnt like him profile at all exposed from 6f
* Not without a recent race
* STRIKING SPIRIT is statistically weak
* ASRAAB could have been better drawn in stall 15
* ASRAAB only has 1 run this season
* Horses doing that in 68 races had a 1-19 record
* That winner was a completely different type
* ASRAAB has a long absence as well and only 3 runs
* Its an Unsafe profile and not a great draw
* I’d be a Fool to discount him from Godolphins
* As an option in this race he doesn’t really appeal
* WHITE FROST has a bad draw in Stall 1
* I dont like his profile from a 3yo handicap either
* There were 4 winners doing this
* Those with Under 7 runs that season were 0-48
* WHITE FROST has just 4 runs and I see him as weak
* WOODCOTE PLACE has a bad draw in Stall 14
* I looked at Exposed horss in 68 similar races
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that year were 0-43
* WOODCOTE PLACE has only 4 runs and is 8 years old
* No exposed horse aged 6 won without at least 6 runs
* WOODCOTE PLACE has to be underraced this year
* MIA4S BOY also looks underraced this year
* He is 7 and has had just 4 runs this season
* ELNA BRIGHT won a 5f handicap last time
* More than happy to oppose him doing that
* Especially as an exposed 6 year old and he looks wrong
* AXIOM is 7 and only 2 winners were as old
* I looked at all exposed horss aged 6 or more
* Those without Pattern Class form won just 5 races
* Most of these had more runs that season than him
* None of these carried more than 9st weight as well
* AXIOM has a difficult task from Topweight
* GALLAGHER is very well treated these days
* There is a doubt about what he can achieve these days
* Recently changed stables he ran ok last time
* He is underraced this year though
* Exposed horses from 6f or shorter struggled
* Those that won were rare and all had far more runs
* GALLAGHER falls short for me
* Fillies dont have a great record in these races
* None were absent as long as BONNIE BRAE
* BONNIE BRAE looks wrong as a filly absent 63 days
* Winning last time with that absence worries me
* BONNIE BRAE doesnt offer me enough
* GOLDEN DELICIOUS is a 3yo filly
* These 3yo fillies have a poor record and he isnt for me
* SPACE STATION is an exposed 5yo
* Statistically he is generally fine with no weak areas
* The only question remains has he got the class
* There are some factors that worry me
* SPACE STATION has a career high mark
* He has only ever won in a Class 4 race before
* He needs to produce a career best by some way
* All his wins come on sharp tracks as well
* MR DAVID is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* All 4 year olds with 9-20 runs doing this were 3-83
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were just 1-44
* That winner had much less weight than he does
* None had raced in Group class before like him
* I Dont fancy him but there are better negatives
* Wouldnt be a complete shock but not for me

S h o r t l i s t

* CITRUS STAR is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* All 4 year olds with 9-20 runs doing this were 3-83
* Those with 13-20 runs like him were only 1-59
* All 3 of these unexposed winners were different
* Troubles me he only has 5 runs that season
* I’d like more and I cant match him exactly to a winner
* CITRUS STAR is respected and shortlistable
* I did struggle to find enough I liked

* LUTINE BELL is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* He has Class 2 form and no higher
* I found 4 winners that had that profile in 68 races
* LUTINE BELL was 2nd last time in a tough race
* That was a career best performance
* He has to repeat that today but should go well
* A couple of things worry me
* I think he has plenty of weight for his profile
* There is a chance his last run was a falsely run race
* The 1-2-3 all came from behind that day
* They may have benefitted from the pace of the race
* I wasnt overkeen he has just 1 race in the last 59 days
* Shortlistable but not completely convinced

* GOLDEN DESERT is a worrying aged at 7
* That said we had 2 horses winning aged 7
* Both were very well raced that year like him
* Both ran well last time in 7f handicaps like him
* I flagged him up as very interesting last time out
* Go back a year and he was 2nd here in a similar race
* That run would win this and he is 9lbs lower today

SELECTION – GOLDEN DESERT 18/1 Eachway at BoyleSports & William Hill

See full market odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-09-24/newmarket/17-00/betting/

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