Spread ex Punter wins over £50k with 10p bet

SpreadEx Punter wins over £50k with 10p bet

 

A lucky player scooped a win in excess of  £50,000 from just a 10p a line bet. The odds were about  500,000/1.

But this monstrous win wasn’t the first time the individual in question had cleaned out SpreadEx– the same guy won nearly £28,000 from a 5p a line bet on the very same game less than a year ago.

The bet was made on a multi-line slot machine game called Angel’s Touch provided by UK bookmaker SpreadEx.

Company spokesman Andy MacKenzie said: “We couldn’t believe it when the client made his big win last year at such huge odds but for him to do it again within 12 months is simply astonishing.

“The fact that his win came on the very same game in our casino had our technical guys racing to see if there was some sort of error or vulnerability in the game.

“However, the wins were genuine payouts and it seems the person in question has certainly been touched by an angel when it comes to his bets on this particular game.”

 

What do you think?

Was this just a very very lucky punter or is there a chink in that game?

 

 

Horse Racing System Selections

Horse Racing System Selections

The following three bets are selections from a portfolio
of researched systems put out under the banner of the NH 500
portfolio on Dave Renham’s PunterProfits site.
( just one of the many interesting things going on there )

I put some of these up here on sports betting blog a
month or two back.

If my fading memory serves me right I believe there
were three out of four winners that day.
Read the rest of this entry

Racing Tip For Kempton

Our old fried Guy Ward aka The Mathematician
is back with us again with his insight on one of
this afternoons races at Kempton.

One thing I know Guy is pround about is the fact that
he has clients who have been with him not for months
but for years and years and years.

This is almost unheard of in the racing tipster world.

If at all interested in his service proper contact
me here at sports-betting-blog and I will see if I can
wrangle a bit of an introducty discount of deal for you.

Over to Guy for today’s horse racing tip

============================

Lingfield has been abandoned but I suppose it
is a bonus that Kempton has survived. That is
the only English card today. For paying clients
I have previewed the first six races there only
leaving the finale alone a race that looks a bit
too dangerous.
Read the rest of this entry

National Hunt Betting System Tip

A few weeks ago I mentioned a researched methodology from the PunterProfits website called the Nh 500

See long term research phase profits on this post

The live testing phase is producing some very good results and is very roughly £900 ahead to £100 bets at early prices.  That is after about nine bets live testing phase.. so early days but encouraging and backing up the most interesting long term research data.

There are two qualifers today from this methodology and I will post one of them here

Rajnagan 4.55 Cheltenham  you can get 12/1 BOG  boylesport or Victor Chandler and about 16/1  at Betfair.

NB The research data profits assume backing all on the nose.

Some will be at big prices however and the personal choice will always be there to go each way on such occassion.

If  interested in more information on this Nh 500 national hunt betting methodology go visit PunterProfits.com and ask about it.  It has spawned from their private member area and as of today there is no outer info webpage about it as yet.

 

Scottish Premier League Bet

Match of the Day is not yet on our TV screens but the new soccer season has already started you know.

Outside the Premiership quite a few leagues are already underway.

The Socottish Premiership is one of them.

With the relegation of Rangers it looks to be a one horse race in the ante post soccer betting markets this year. Coral are top price about Celtic at 1/33. Compared to the 1/66 available in many others spots pureist may even argue that 1/33 is value but I am not having it myself.  I could get better interest in my bank with no risk of loss.

There are better value Scottish bets than that available.

One for todays action comes from Phil Brown the ex bookmaker turned long term profitable tipster.

Here is a copy of his message for today.

=========================================

A little later than usual tonight, as its been a hard slog with a lack of firms pricing up certain markets making life difficult.
However we do have one selection to place as St Mirren travel to newly promoted and injury hit Dundee…

Dundee v St Mirren (3:00pm)
St Mirren DRAW NO BET at Evens William HillBlue SquareLadbrokes 20/21 Stan James 1pt

=========================================

Nb Phil has an excellent long term record of net profit.

You can test out his service for just £1 at the link below

Football Betting Tips

 

 

 

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A Poor Saturday

Our usual free horse racing tip on a Saturday from Guy at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

==========================

There is an Intolerable ammount of Racing today and
on days like this I never finish the messages the clock
finishes me. I could have stretched two extra messages
from the races I havent had a chance to look at. There
are two pieces in the Racing Post about how the racing
is particularly difficult today as it’s dominated by large
field handicaps. Unusual for them to acknowledge it but
it’s true. It is Intolerable and any bets and races finished
will be down to a lot of luck. Might be a frustrating and
a bit untidy today. I fear for anyone betting through it all
and rain and non runners make it more dangerous.

I have no firm properly staked advised bet today
for clients or for free blog readers.
You don’t come out ahead in the long run betting
hard when conditions do not suit.

Need something however today..well ponder the below

D o n c a s t e r   2.05

9/4 Mawasem, 9/2 Grey Mirage, 6/1 Warfare, 8/1 Assizes
10/1 Gold City, 10/1 Shamaal Nibras, 10/1 Well Painted
12/1 Chapter Seven, 14/1 Mister Music, 16/1 Kickingthelilly.

* This is a Class 2  3yo handicap over 8f
* These races are rare and a tiny sample size
* WELL PAINTED – Dont like him from 7f maiden
* Not with just the single run
* GOLD CITY – All seasonal debutants were lighter raced
* KICKINGTHELILLY is too exposed
* MISTER MUSIC – Surely beaten too far 7 days ago
* The above horses are ones I’d avoid
* ASSIZES – Unsafe well beaten on seasonal debut
* SHAMAAL NIBRAS – Not convinced and bad draw

Shortlist

* GREY MIRAGE – An option but don’t like the absence
* MAWASEM – I dont like the record of 3yo maidens much
* None have won with just 2 runs or from 7f races
* He has to be a positive but I cant match him to a winner
* WARFARE – I can forgive him a defeat at York
* CHAPTER SEVEN – Better than he showed last time
* Comes from a hot race where he never had a good position
* Nothing went right and hampered and eased once beaten
* CHAPTER SEVEN could run better than expected

Selection

CHAPTER SEVEN 12/1 Each  Way
at Betfred Bet365 Coral PaddyPower

Each Way Betting Discussion

Each Way Betting Advice

The following discussion from this morning regarding betting each way was lifted from the full member area at www.PunterProfits.com

Worth a read to any one who has ever bet a horse each way.

PunterProfits as a site.. well worth closer investigation if you are a thinking
punter.

There are many highly profitable tipping threads in the private forums there
whose results would blow any £2k a year glossy slick marketed tipster
away.


Not sure where to post this but here goes. I thought it could be useful for
some discussions/articles on general betting techniques and practices. I think
that there are some techniques that we can all learn from each other that will
improve our returns.

I would be interested to hear people’s thoughts on betting each way. I personally
rarely bet each way, with the exceptions of 8 or 16 horse races or if the market
has a particular shape eg odds on fav with 2 dangers and then mostly longer
odds. I notice a lot of threads where selections are advised each way so am
interested to understand what the stats are on this or whether it is just a
matter of personal preferences. I do think that there are definite situations
where value can be obtained each way (indeed there is a thread for 16 runner
handicaps) so hope this might be a useful topic for discussion.

Carl


I ONLY back in 16+ handicaps and always each way as its mainly the place money
I want. I have constantly made money doing this and run a small service to 10
other people and have done so for the last five years.

REASON is that in my opinion big handicaps are the only races that offer value
as bookmakers struggle to make ther books up early in these races. My problem
is that nearly all the book makers will not take my bets anymore, or just offer
me crappy sp – Betfair offers poor value early on as there is never enough money
to get a decent bet on, thats the reason I went down the tipster route.

I do not back any other method or follow anyone else on the site. Yesterday
I had 10 bets – NO winners, I few seconds unfortunatly but 5 did place @ 25/1
16/1 16/1 20/1 25/1 but still made a nice profit at just £10EW.

The method I use is Value, value value + a little bit of form smile.gif

To me its the only route to go, as following the short end of the market will
lead you to busto smile.gif

GL Padman


Hi Carl

Sounds like you are starting from the mathematical angle

of seeking race frames that offer each way advantage.

eg classic case of 8 runner race with a very short price favourite.

16 runner handicaps as per Padman again is in that realm.

It can throw up potential as well for the odd each way double.

More so a case of not taking the starting point of

I am going to find a few random horses to each way double every day,

instead .. the markets are throwing up this opportunity today

with two good each framed races.

eg say for arguments sake you have two horses with a

calculated zero positive or negative edge on the win side

but 10% value on the place side.

The double factors up that value to about 21%

It is another style of selective punt that the bookies do not like very much
smile.gif

A totally different angle on each way betting is from a bank management perspective.

eg If you ask the rough question of “I have fixed capital of £1000..

How best to I manage my betting of this method for optimal growth.”

Well sometimes an each way approach can be advantageous.

Likes of Kelly formulae will indicate % bank to use will vary with both ROI
and strike rate.

With each way betting there is potential to increase strike rate / reduce losing
run length

and draw downs etc.

That can permit additional aggression in terms of % bank which can in turn lead
to faster growth rate.

However not something to go into blindly.

More so done after research of a particular approach or method indicates is
favourable to do so.

In the back of my head I recall some research ( possibly by Dave ) indicating
each way

was less profitable than on the nose assuming random horse selections.

eg picture two betting shop mug punters who over the year each bet the same
randomly selected 500

horses at 10/1 over the course of a year.

The punter who bets each will have much more pleasurable experiences when landing

place returns. The win only punter may endure losing runs with much fewer pleasurable
days.

However add up at year end what they have won or lost and the win only punter
will have

lost less than his each way betting mate.

So for average betting shop mug punters who often focus “on the day”
rather than long term

each way can be a psychological trap set by the bookmaker.

But it is also an exploitable trap by the shrewd who can identify the correct
frame of race

where the maths and numbers move from bookmaker to punter.

Cheers

Mick

Scottish Grand National Racing Tip

Our regular free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician site is below

His full service has been on fire since Cheltenham.

To visit his site click here Betting Advice

—————————————————————————

We have had a decent week for full members here.
Only two firm advised bets over the entire week.
We attacked the 12/1 Coral offered about RIFLESSIONE
with an each way bet and got the place pay off.
Then on Friday we improved on 2nd spot with 8/1 winner VALMINA

We do have another firm bet today that runs in the 6.05
So plenty of time to join up as a member proper
and pick that up in the member area.

As for todays Free Horse Racing Tip.
This is not a firm bet. More so extra analysis and info
from the message extra analysis section.

But it is the big race of the day and the most asked for preview
for the free betting blog.

The Scottish National

A y r 3.25

For live Scottish National Odds odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-21/ayr/15-25/betting/

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I have looked at the last 18 renewals of this race
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* It is Just not the best preparation for this race
* JUNIOR has that against him
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* 3 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* JUNIOR looks underraced this season to me
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-19 record in this
* JUNIOR also fails this statistic
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-120
* No good coming here after a poor last run
* The following horses didnt do enough last time
* JUNIOR – ETXALAR
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 4 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18 4
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17 13
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 4 Chase starts.
* HARRY THE VIKING only has 3 Chase starts
* Thats one less than every 1st 2nd or 3rd
* HARRY THE VIKING doesnt come out that well
* HARRY THE VIKING is also a 7 year old
* We know 7 year olds dont win the Grand National
* In this race since 1992 they have a 1-55 record
* Horses aged 7 (1-55) look unsafe to me
* WALKON is 7 and may not get home
* PORTRAIT KING is 7 and lacks backclass
* He won the Eider last time and this is a second big test
* I see no evidence a 7 year old can do that
* OUR ISLAND – He isnt even 7 until next month
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-89
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* There was only 1 exposed winner aged 11 or more
* He had Graded form and 8 runs that season
* GARLETON – Not right as a 11 year old
* MERIGO – Has some flaws as an exposed 11yo
* The only winner like him had a more recent run
* He didnt win last time either and had more runs that year
* MERIGO – Credit for winning this in 2010 and 2nd last year
* ABBEYBRANEY – Wrong type of 11yo
* BALLYFITZ – HEEZ A STEEL dont offer enough aged 11 +
* 12 of the last 13 winners ran within 60 days
* ANY CURRENCY has been absent longer
* He looks underraced this year with that absence
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 3-89 record
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Graded form
* They all had 10st 4lbs or less as well
* KNOCKARA BEAU fails that
* FRUITY O4ROONEY fails that
* PETTIFOUR fails that
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* AURORAS ENCORE fails that statistic

* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* QUENTIN COLLONGES fails that
* OUR ISLAND also fails that
* QUENTIN COLLONGES only has 3 runs this year
* Some doing that have won but none aged 8
* No winners came from Hurdles
* PETTIFOUR – KING FONTAINE fails that
* GALAXY ROCK also come from hurdles
* Exposed horses won 6 of the last 18 renewals
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* AURORAS ENCORE – GARLETON fail that
* MAD AEDA doesnt look right
* The last 12 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out
* The following horses failed to achieve that
* PETTIFOUR – OUR ISLAND – ANY CURRENCY
* MOSTLY BOB – BE THERE IN FIVE
* GALAXY ROCK is not a negative
* Thats despite coming from hurdles. I can overlook that
* Decided not to shortlist him as an exposed 8yo
* Those that won all had more runs that season
* They all had more backclass and came from further too
* BE THERE IN FIVE also looks underraced this year aged 8

S h o r t l i s t

* MOSTLY BOB – Taking a chance on including him
* He had excused at Cheltenham and passes most stats
* Around 25/1 he could offer some value
* He was really progressive last year
* He has excuses in some races this year
* This track and ground could help him

* BENNY BE GOOD passes all the above trends
* He does have 11st 3lbs though which is a worry
* 8 of the last 10 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* I can overlook that given his price

* IKORODU ROAD sails through the above trends

Selection

Covering a few to small stakes with Ikorodu staked to
just return stakes on the other two if it wins

MOSTLY BOB 25/1 Win Bet ( a bit higher available on Betfair )
BENNY BE GOOD 25/1 Win Bet ( 36/1 Betfair )
IKORODU ROAD 12/1 Saver ( 16/1 Betfair )

Favourite Stats – National Hunt Racing

Knowing how favourites fare at different courses and for certain race types
is pretty useful information to be aware of before you place a bet.

If you fancy a favourite and the stats favourite back it up then you can go
at it with increased confidence.

On the other hand in situations where long term stats indicate favourites to
be poor value investments

you can perhaps lay the favourite or oppose it with a longer odds selection.

As a general rule the more you know, the more informed horse
betting
decisions you will be making.

Dave from RacingTrends has provided us with the below for today’s National
Hunt race meetings.

It is just a small snippet from a much more comprehensive horse racing stats
email his clients receive daily.

===================================

COURSE
FAVOURITE STATS NATIONAL HUNT –

this is
a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Bangor-On-Dee
favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI %

Race times

handicap chases

30

126

23.8

-£27.18

-21.6

3.50, 5.00

novice / beginner chases

20

58

34.5

-£13.85

-23.9

3.20

handicap hurdles

35

129

27.1

-£7.25

-5.6

4.25

non handicap hurdles

59

134

44.0

-£10.42

-7.8

2.15

novice hurdles

42

95

44.2

-£6.95

-7.3

2.50

bumpers

8

24

33.3

-£0.14

-0.6

5.35

Kelso
favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI %

Race times

handicap chases

34

114

29.8

£5.88

5.2

3.30, 4.40

handicap hurdles

24

110

21.8

-£17.00

-15.5

3.00, 4.05

novice hurdles

32

71

45.1

£1.19

1.7

2.30

bumpers

2

13

15.4

-£7.77

-59.8

5.15

Newbury
favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI %

Race times

handicap chases

31

120

25.8

-£6.46

-5.4

2.05, 3.40, 4.15

handicap hurdles

19

73

26.0

-£4.69

-6.4

1.30, 2.40

novice hurdles

25

65

38.5

-£11.81

-18.2

3.10

bumpers

4

15

26.7

-£4.38

-29.2

4.50

Stratford
favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR %

Profit

ROI %

Race times

handicap chases

38

149

25.5

-£11.61

-7.8

2.45, 3.45, 4.55

handicap hurdles

28

136

20.6

-£35.58

-26.2

4.20, 5.25

non handicap hurdles

61

159

38.4

-£21.12

-13.3

3.15

novice hurdles

30

81

37.0

-£20.19

-24.9

2.10

Provided by Dave Renham of www.RacingTrends.co.uk

PS if interested contact Dave, tell him you saw this post and ask if he has any free trial spots available.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Just a short note late note to alert you to some interesting Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips and Analysis over of Guys blog.

He is having a good Cheltenham so far with a 25% profit on turnover on advised bets.

His views tend not to be conventional and he always finds betting angles ignored by the masses.

Worth a read. See links below

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

.