Spread ex Punter wins over £50k with 10p bet

SpreadEx Punter wins over £50k with 10p bet

 

A lucky player scooped a win in excess of  £50,000 from just a 10p a line bet. The odds were about  500,000/1.

But this monstrous win wasn’t the first time the individual in question had cleaned out SpreadEx– the same guy won nearly £28,000 from a 5p a line bet on the very same game less than a year ago.

The bet was made on a multi-line slot machine game called Angel’s Touch provided by UK bookmaker SpreadEx.

Company spokesman Andy MacKenzie said: “We couldn’t believe it when the client made his big win last year at such huge odds but for him to do it again within 12 months is simply astonishing.

“The fact that his win came on the very same game in our casino had our technical guys racing to see if there was some sort of error or vulnerability in the game.

“However, the wins were genuine payouts and it seems the person in question has certainly been touched by an angel when it comes to his bets on this particular game.”

 

What do you think?

Was this just a very very lucky punter or is there a chink in that game?

 

 

Soccer Corner Betting Tip

Soccer Corner Betting Tip

Betting on corners is one of the more interesting bets to make
if you plan on watching a live game.

Typically the bet is a bet on whether a certain amount of corners
will or will not be exceeded.

Every attack by either side can have you hoping for or fearing
that it results in a corner.

As ever with betting however one should not make a bet because of any buzz factor. Read the rest of this entry

Sandown Horse Racing Tip

Our regular Saturday free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician Site is below

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A pleasing result last weekend with Bob’s Worth
winning the Hennessy Gold Cup for us.

For full members today I have a firm bet at good odds advised
in the 2.45 race.
****************************************
Full Service Christmas Sale is NOW On !

See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

****************************************

Here on the free blog I have popped up a race from slightly lower down the pecking order on my main message.

Sandown  2.30

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-12-08/sandown-park/14-30/betting/

* This is a 0-147 handicap hurdle over 2 Miles
* There has been 19 renewals of this race
* There has been 58 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 58 Handicaps at 2m in Class 2-Listed-Grade 3
* Past winners had 4 5 4 9 26 7 5 6 11 7 Hurdle runs
* There is only one past winner with more than 11 runs
* That race (2006) was a falsely run race in a crawl
* Clearly horses with 4-11 hurdle races are best
* The past winners had the following days absence
* 21 28 21 6 6 28 15 9 27 13
* Past winners had these number of runs that season
* 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 4
* A recent run is important in this race
* You want a lightly raced hurdler with a recent run
* You also want a younger horse as well
* Horses aged 8 or more have a miserable 1-67 record
* PETIT ROBIN is a 9yo and I feel too riSky
* He has Topweight and that bothers me as well
* Lightweights have a much better record
* Only 1 winner had more than 11st 5lbs
* That was in 2009 a poor renewal with a false pace
* STARLUCK has too much weight for 15 hurdle runs
* You want an in form horse as well
* 16 of 19 past winners of this were 1-2-3-4-5 last time
* Only one was beaten more than 12 lengths last time
* That came in a Graded race as welll
* RAJAMAND is out as a seasonal debutant
* HELIUM is too exposed
* ROWAN TIGER – I wanted a better last run
* SOFTSONG – Not keen as a 4yo from a novice hurdle
* Especially beaten last time out and so lightly raced
* I think there are better options
* DOLATULO – Didnt think he had proven enough
* SWAMPFIRE is 4 and from a Novice Handicap
* There was 1 winner aged 4 doing that
* That horse had Grade 1 form and he doesnt
* SWAMPFIRE is therefore unsafe but respected
* INTO WAIN – I cant find a good stat against him
* I dont like the fact he raced recently on the flat
* Very few do that and It undermines their chance

Shortlist

* MONTE CAVALLO has enough to shortlist
* Not many 7yo’s are as lightly raced though

* CANADIAN DIAMOND is 5 from a Novice Handicap
* The 2008 winner was similar from the same race
* CANADIAN DIAMOND has enough to shortlist

* IFANDBUTWHYNOT also comes from this race
* Lots to like in his profile and has to go well
* The only downside is he is shorter than ideal
* Because of that he’s a saver not a selection

Selection

70% of stake Win MONTE CAVALLO 10/1  Victor Chandler Stan James ( who both offer best odds guarantee )

30% of stake Saver IFANDBUTWHYNOT 3/1  bet 365 Ladbrokes William Hill ( who all offer best odds guarantee )

 

Aintree Horse Betting Advice

A free horse betting tip for Aintree this week from Guy over at the mathematician betting website.

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

 

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Looks another classy Saturday and fascinating racing again and I have covered
something from every track this afternoon for the full member message.
The flat is closing down now and much of this is rubbish but there are
still some really intersting races. The National Hunt cards are getting better all the time.
It’s as least as good as the flat today and they
contribute a lot to the 16 Saturday previews but the problem yet again is the
best racing is saved for Saturday and there is simply not enough time to do it all justice.

I am having one full bet for full members today in the 2.30 at Doncaster.
Here on the free blog I am posting up one from slightly further down the full member message.
It almost made full bet status but not quite.

Aintree   1.50

For latest live odss see here

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-10-27/aintree/13-50/betting/

Not ready yet for big field Aintree Handicap Hurdles.
I did notice from 7 past renewals that horses that came from Novice races were 0-16
so I would raise a question mark about favourite CAPE EXPRESS as well as KARTANIAN as well.
I want to oppose these. There are several that have acceptable profiles.
AGENT ARCHIE and NAMPOUR look threatsbut I was drawn to EMPIRE LEVANT first time out.
He had no chance at last years festival over 2m 5f as he doesnt stay.
He wants to race over 18f or less on good ground and on a flat track
and these are his conditions and I think he is a far better bet than the favourite here.

Selection

EMPIRE LEVANT 4/1 ( best odds guaranteed )  at Stan James

 

 

NH 500 Portfolio Horse Racing Tip

This free racing tip today is from a new method now available to full members over at PunterProfits.com.

So far it has been done on the quiet only to full members there.

There is no info on it as yet on the outer PunterProfits site.

Christened the NH 500 Portfolio the rough idea is that several well researched methodologies are combined into a single portfolio to provide a diversified approach.

The data below is the researched data.

Everything below is based on Starting  Price and as such is conservative compared to real life returns making use of betting Exchanges such as Betfair of bookmaker early prices especially those offer Best Odds Guaranteed.

Year wins Runs SR% Profit ROI%
2003 112 322 34.78 25.66 7.97
2004 82 257 31.91 6.53 2.54
2005 84 247 34.01 9.34 3.78
2006 88 286 30.77 134.62 47.07
2007 87 275 31.64 35.01 12.73
2008 78 275 28.36 20.95 7.62
2009 103 346 29.77 149.76 43.28
2010 103 333 30.93 58.95 17.70
2011 98 344 28.49 74.38 21.62
2012 75 243 30.86 103.14 42.44
Totals 910 2928 31.08 618.34 21.12

Looking to the future the key concept is one of educated risk.

History certainly looks very positive.

Only two past selections emailed out to PunterProfits.com full members so far.

One loser then a winner yesterday at 10/3 early odds.

 

There is one selection today from the above methodology

4.00 Fontwell – Venetian Lad – 9/1 BOG with William Hill , Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, Stan James

Such a tip is best viewed sensibly.

In no way is it a nailed on winner.

Based on long term stats data of 21% ROI and nothing else one might assess it to be a true 7/1 chance but with 9/1 available at the bookies.

So it will still lose 7 times out of 8 but that one winner in eight will give you a net profitover the long term.

Bet a few hundred such value horses and you should be well ahead.

Go contact PunterProfits if you want extra detail data on the NH 500 such as a detailed spreadsheet containing info on all 2928 past qualifiers.

Such data is useful for stage two of any good betting approach that being sensible and suitable bank roll management.

 

 

Scottish Premier League Bet

Match of the Day is not yet on our TV screens but the new soccer season has already started you know.

Outside the Premiership quite a few leagues are already underway.

The Socottish Premiership is one of them.

With the relegation of Rangers it looks to be a one horse race in the ante post soccer betting markets this year. Coral are top price about Celtic at 1/33. Compared to the 1/66 available in many others spots pureist may even argue that 1/33 is value but I am not having it myself.  I could get better interest in my bank with no risk of loss.

There are better value Scottish bets than that available.

One for todays action comes from Phil Brown the ex bookmaker turned long term profitable tipster.

Here is a copy of his message for today.

=========================================

A little later than usual tonight, as its been a hard slog with a lack of firms pricing up certain markets making life difficult.
However we do have one selection to place as St Mirren travel to newly promoted and injury hit Dundee…

Dundee v St Mirren (3:00pm)
St Mirren DRAW NO BET at Evens William HillBlue SquareLadbrokes 20/21 Stan James 1pt

=========================================

Nb Phil has an excellent long term record of net profit.

You can test out his service for just £1 at the link below

Football Betting Tips

 

 

 

.

Goodwood Racing Tip

A free racing tip for Goodwood from our old friend Guy aka The Mathematician

to visit Guy’s site click here ==>  Horse Racing Tipster

G o o d w o o d   2.40

For live market odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-08-04/goodwood/14-40/betting/
I had this 14f handicap pencilled in early as race that may well have provided a bet.
I like FRANCISCAN 8/1 Each Way.
Not really a statistical choice but this is a progressive horse from a stable with a great record in the race.
He dissapointed last time but hated very soft ground.
That last run is why is isnt perfect statistically but I want to overlook that.
Had there been faster ground at Goodwood I’d be making him a stronger bet.
Happy for a smaller bet though but I have shortlisted a few too many.

* This is a 14f Class 2 Handicap for all aged horses
* Goodwood has had 15 renewals of this race

Last year we had a Stat buster win. That was PETARA BAY
who was older than any past winner and more exposed as well.
I am going to ignore that as I see last years winner as a fluke.
There was a fancied horse that was Killed in the race and two
other strongly fancied horses were knocked over and lost all chance.
It was a very rough race and I think thats helped the Stat buster win
and he only did that in a photo.
Therefore I’m going to stay with the standard trends which are quite strong.

* These races usually go to younger unexposed horses
* Horses aged 6 or more only won last years race
* Horses aged 3-4-5 dominate this contest
* No exposed horse has ever won this race (All 60 lost)
* They struggle in similar races and none were beaten far lto
* Horses aged 4 need a good recent run
* Those beaten more than 10 lengths last time out are 0-66
* Horses that came from 14f races mysteriously struggle
* Many came from 12f or from 2m races
* None though ran over this 14f distance last time out
* Horses doing that were 0-52
* I suspect that is because improvement is found at the trip
* ROXY FLYER – Rejected as mare with 1 run this season
* PETARA BAY is underraced and exposed aged 8
* THE BETCHWORTH KID is underraced and exposed aged 7
* MOTIVADO – Needs another run this year for me
* HARLESTONE TIMES also wants another race
* SPICE FAIR is wrong exposed and out of form
* SOLAR Sky -  94 day absence hurts him
* LIFE AND SOUL is exposed and I am wary
* Career high mark and he comes from 14f a bad sign
* SHUBAAT – His absence is longer than any past winner
* Didnt do enough last time to interest me
* LATE TELEGRAPH – 1997 winner was similar
* He was a 4yo from a 2m race with 5-6 runs
* That horse won last time and had 5 runs that year
* LATE TELEGRAPH lost easily and has just 3 runs

Shortlist

* VASILY is hard to read
* She is also 4 from a 12f race and has 4 runs this year
* Profile fine other than none like him won last time out
* Throw in a Months absence after a win and he is unsafe

* VERY GOOD DAY – Neutral profile
* He’s 5 and won a 2m race last time
* No 5yo won last time but none have tried to do it
* No horse has had a close enough profile to compare

* A BOY NAMED SUZI is 4 and comes from 12f
* He has Class 2 form and 3 runs that season
* The 2009 was very similar so he’s shortlisted

* FRANCISCAN is 4 from 12f with 3 runs this year
* He has a similar profile as well
* On the negtaive side he lost by too far last time
* On the positive side he hated the ground last time
* His trainer also has a brilliant record in it
* Look at Luca Cumani’s  7 runners in this race
* They finished W 2 14 W 2 W 2

Cumani was bullish about FRANCISCAN at Haydock last time
and said he was very progressive.
He also warned about him on soft ground and said that wasnt sure to suit.
This wont be as bad as Haydock and I think he can return to form and win this.

S e l e c t i o n

FRANCISCAN 8/1 Each Way
at William HillBet365Stan James
 

.

A Poor Saturday

Our usual free horse racing tip on a Saturday from Guy at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

==========================

There is an Intolerable ammount of Racing today and
on days like this I never finish the messages the clock
finishes me. I could have stretched two extra messages
from the races I havent had a chance to look at. There
are two pieces in the Racing Post about how the racing
is particularly difficult today as it’s dominated by large
field handicaps. Unusual for them to acknowledge it but
it’s true. It is Intolerable and any bets and races finished
will be down to a lot of luck. Might be a frustrating and
a bit untidy today. I fear for anyone betting through it all
and rain and non runners make it more dangerous.

I have no firm properly staked advised bet today
for clients or for free blog readers.
You don’t come out ahead in the long run betting
hard when conditions do not suit.

Need something however today..well ponder the below

D o n c a s t e r   2.05

9/4 Mawasem, 9/2 Grey Mirage, 6/1 Warfare, 8/1 Assizes
10/1 Gold City, 10/1 Shamaal Nibras, 10/1 Well Painted
12/1 Chapter Seven, 14/1 Mister Music, 16/1 Kickingthelilly.

* This is a Class 2  3yo handicap over 8f
* These races are rare and a tiny sample size
* WELL PAINTED – Dont like him from 7f maiden
* Not with just the single run
* GOLD CITY – All seasonal debutants were lighter raced
* KICKINGTHELILLY is too exposed
* MISTER MUSIC – Surely beaten too far 7 days ago
* The above horses are ones I’d avoid
* ASSIZES – Unsafe well beaten on seasonal debut
* SHAMAAL NIBRAS – Not convinced and bad draw

Shortlist

* GREY MIRAGE – An option but don’t like the absence
* MAWASEM – I dont like the record of 3yo maidens much
* None have won with just 2 runs or from 7f races
* He has to be a positive but I cant match him to a winner
* WARFARE – I can forgive him a defeat at York
* CHAPTER SEVEN – Better than he showed last time
* Comes from a hot race where he never had a good position
* Nothing went right and hampered and eased once beaten
* CHAPTER SEVEN could run better than expected

Selection

CHAPTER SEVEN 12/1 Each  Way
at Betfred Bet365 Coral PaddyPower

Each Way Betting Discussion

Each Way Betting Advice

The following discussion from this morning regarding betting each way was lifted from the full member area at www.PunterProfits.com

Worth a read to any one who has ever bet a horse each way.

PunterProfits as a site.. well worth closer investigation if you are a thinking
punter.

There are many highly profitable tipping threads in the private forums there
whose results would blow any £2k a year glossy slick marketed tipster
away.


Not sure where to post this but here goes. I thought it could be useful for
some discussions/articles on general betting techniques and practices. I think
that there are some techniques that we can all learn from each other that will
improve our returns.

I would be interested to hear people’s thoughts on betting each way. I personally
rarely bet each way, with the exceptions of 8 or 16 horse races or if the market
has a particular shape eg odds on fav with 2 dangers and then mostly longer
odds. I notice a lot of threads where selections are advised each way so am
interested to understand what the stats are on this or whether it is just a
matter of personal preferences. I do think that there are definite situations
where value can be obtained each way (indeed there is a thread for 16 runner
handicaps) so hope this might be a useful topic for discussion.

Carl


I ONLY back in 16+ handicaps and always each way as its mainly the place money
I want. I have constantly made money doing this and run a small service to 10
other people and have done so for the last five years.

REASON is that in my opinion big handicaps are the only races that offer value
as bookmakers struggle to make ther books up early in these races. My problem
is that nearly all the book makers will not take my bets anymore, or just offer
me crappy sp – Betfair offers poor value early on as there is never enough money
to get a decent bet on, thats the reason I went down the tipster route.

I do not back any other method or follow anyone else on the site. Yesterday
I had 10 bets – NO winners, I few seconds unfortunatly but 5 did place @ 25/1
16/1 16/1 20/1 25/1 but still made a nice profit at just £10EW.

The method I use is Value, value value + a little bit of form smile.gif

To me its the only route to go, as following the short end of the market will
lead you to busto smile.gif

GL Padman


Hi Carl

Sounds like you are starting from the mathematical angle

of seeking race frames that offer each way advantage.

eg classic case of 8 runner race with a very short price favourite.

16 runner handicaps as per Padman again is in that realm.

It can throw up potential as well for the odd each way double.

More so a case of not taking the starting point of

I am going to find a few random horses to each way double every day,

instead .. the markets are throwing up this opportunity today

with two good each framed races.

eg say for arguments sake you have two horses with a

calculated zero positive or negative edge on the win side

but 10% value on the place side.

The double factors up that value to about 21%

It is another style of selective punt that the bookies do not like very much
smile.gif

A totally different angle on each way betting is from a bank management perspective.

eg If you ask the rough question of “I have fixed capital of £1000..

How best to I manage my betting of this method for optimal growth.”

Well sometimes an each way approach can be advantageous.

Likes of Kelly formulae will indicate % bank to use will vary with both ROI
and strike rate.

With each way betting there is potential to increase strike rate / reduce losing
run length

and draw downs etc.

That can permit additional aggression in terms of % bank which can in turn lead
to faster growth rate.

However not something to go into blindly.

More so done after research of a particular approach or method indicates is
favourable to do so.

In the back of my head I recall some research ( possibly by Dave ) indicating
each way

was less profitable than on the nose assuming random horse selections.

eg picture two betting shop mug punters who over the year each bet the same
randomly selected 500

horses at 10/1 over the course of a year.

The punter who bets each will have much more pleasurable experiences when landing

place returns. The win only punter may endure losing runs with much fewer pleasurable
days.

However add up at year end what they have won or lost and the win only punter
will have

lost less than his each way betting mate.

So for average betting shop mug punters who often focus “on the day”
rather than long term

each way can be a psychological trap set by the bookmaker.

But it is also an exploitable trap by the shrewd who can identify the correct
frame of race

where the maths and numbers move from bookmaker to punter.

Cheers

Mick

Scottish Grand National Racing Tip

Our regular free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician site is below

His full service has been on fire since Cheltenham.

To visit his site click here Betting Advice

—————————————————————————

We have had a decent week for full members here.
Only two firm advised bets over the entire week.
We attacked the 12/1 Coral offered about RIFLESSIONE
with an each way bet and got the place pay off.
Then on Friday we improved on 2nd spot with 8/1 winner VALMINA

We do have another firm bet today that runs in the 6.05
So plenty of time to join up as a member proper
and pick that up in the member area.

As for todays Free Horse Racing Tip.
This is not a firm bet. More so extra analysis and info
from the message extra analysis section.

But it is the big race of the day and the most asked for preview
for the free betting blog.

The Scottish National

A y r 3.25

For live Scottish National Odds odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-21/ayr/15-25/betting/

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I have looked at the last 18 renewals of this race
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* It is Just not the best preparation for this race
* JUNIOR has that against him
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* 3 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* JUNIOR looks underraced this season to me
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-19 record in this
* JUNIOR also fails this statistic
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-120
* No good coming here after a poor last run
* The following horses didnt do enough last time
* JUNIOR – ETXALAR
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 4 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18 4
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17 13
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 4 Chase starts.
* HARRY THE VIKING only has 3 Chase starts
* Thats one less than every 1st 2nd or 3rd
* HARRY THE VIKING doesnt come out that well
* HARRY THE VIKING is also a 7 year old
* We know 7 year olds dont win the Grand National
* In this race since 1992 they have a 1-55 record
* Horses aged 7 (1-55) look unsafe to me
* WALKON is 7 and may not get home
* PORTRAIT KING is 7 and lacks backclass
* He won the Eider last time and this is a second big test
* I see no evidence a 7 year old can do that
* OUR ISLAND – He isnt even 7 until next month
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-89
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* There was only 1 exposed winner aged 11 or more
* He had Graded form and 8 runs that season
* GARLETON – Not right as a 11 year old
* MERIGO – Has some flaws as an exposed 11yo
* The only winner like him had a more recent run
* He didnt win last time either and had more runs that year
* MERIGO – Credit for winning this in 2010 and 2nd last year
* ABBEYBRANEY – Wrong type of 11yo
* BALLYFITZ – HEEZ A STEEL dont offer enough aged 11 +
* 12 of the last 13 winners ran within 60 days
* ANY CURRENCY has been absent longer
* He looks underraced this year with that absence
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 3-89 record
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Graded form
* They all had 10st 4lbs or less as well
* KNOCKARA BEAU fails that
* FRUITY O4ROONEY fails that
* PETTIFOUR fails that
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* AURORAS ENCORE fails that statistic

* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* QUENTIN COLLONGES fails that
* OUR ISLAND also fails that
* QUENTIN COLLONGES only has 3 runs this year
* Some doing that have won but none aged 8
* No winners came from Hurdles
* PETTIFOUR – KING FONTAINE fails that
* GALAXY ROCK also come from hurdles
* Exposed horses won 6 of the last 18 renewals
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* AURORAS ENCORE – GARLETON fail that
* MAD AEDA doesnt look right
* The last 12 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out
* The following horses failed to achieve that
* PETTIFOUR – OUR ISLAND – ANY CURRENCY
* MOSTLY BOB – BE THERE IN FIVE
* GALAXY ROCK is not a negative
* Thats despite coming from hurdles. I can overlook that
* Decided not to shortlist him as an exposed 8yo
* Those that won all had more runs that season
* They all had more backclass and came from further too
* BE THERE IN FIVE also looks underraced this year aged 8

S h o r t l i s t

* MOSTLY BOB – Taking a chance on including him
* He had excused at Cheltenham and passes most stats
* Around 25/1 he could offer some value
* He was really progressive last year
* He has excuses in some races this year
* This track and ground could help him

* BENNY BE GOOD passes all the above trends
* He does have 11st 3lbs though which is a worry
* 8 of the last 10 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* I can overlook that given his price

* IKORODU ROAD sails through the above trends

Selection

Covering a few to small stakes with Ikorodu staked to
just return stakes on the other two if it wins

MOSTLY BOB 25/1 Win Bet ( a bit higher available on Betfair )
BENNY BE GOOD 25/1 Win Bet ( 36/1 Betfair )
IKORODU ROAD 12/1 Saver ( 16/1 Betfair )