Blindingly Obvious Form From The Racing Post

Picture horse racing punters up and down the country
opening up their daily newspaper racing page
or flicking through the Racing Post sheets in their local bookmakers shop.

What is the most obvious element of racing form their eyes will
immediately latch on to?

Most likely it is the recent finishing positions from recent races.

If you see a horse with 000 ( failed to place in the top six in it’s last three races )
I suspect you would immediately discount it from your calculations.

If you note 111 however ( won it’s last three races ) your interest in betting on it will be tweaked.

And why not.

It is a proven consistent winner.

Probably the factor most weight is generally given to is it’s performance Last Time Out ( LTO )

The shrewd and canny amongst you are probably saying to yourself..

“Strike rate is only half the equation.
There is a very good chance that because winning last time out is so bleeding obvious
to everyone.. it is a factor that will over bet by the racing population and thus such horses
will offer long term poor value odds.”

Taking your questioning further you might ask..

“Are there any situations where horses that won last time out do better or worse than normal?

Is a horse that won a Group 1 race for example better to follow next race than a horse that win a maiden?”

Your average racing journalist or tv pundit will likely give you a load of personal hunch and supposition
on such matters.

Better you ask a more qualified horse racing researcher who can give you the cold hard facts.

Dave Renham has carried out research into this issue of last time out winners.

You can read his findings at the page below.

Horse Racing – Last Time Out Winners

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