Saturday Racing Tip

The following horse racing tip below comes from Guy over at Mathematician Betting

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NEWMARKET 2.35

Bet365 Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed Race)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m

9/4 Alexandros, 5/2 Secrecy, 11/2 Nationalism, 7/1 Kingsfor 8/1 The Cheka, 12/1 Balducci, 14/1 Mia´s Boy, 50/1 Letty.

This is a Listed Class race over 8f. Newmarket has 24 similar  races at this time of year.
I can tell you horses from a 7f race  had a 0-60 record in these 24 races.
SECRECY – MIA´S BOY  KINGSFORT and BALDUCCI all have that against them.
It’s easy to oppose LETTY. This leaves 3 runners and all 3 have decent chances in an open race.
ALEXANDROS is one option  but I didnt see a good enough case for him.
Only 4 of the 24 winners were exposed and all 4 dropped in distance and none like
ALEXANDROS came from a Mile or less (0-29) and as he has just 1 run since July I wasnt convinced.
THE CHEKA  may well go well but he also has just one run since July and it  may leave him short of full fitness.
NATIONALISM for me.

NATIONALISM  is a 3 year old and they have a good record
and several lighter raced ones like him have won. I think it is very significant his half brother won this race in 2004
and he is being asked to do the same.
His low draw killed his Chance  in the Cambridgeshire last time.
He started favourite for that  race and there were rumours he was a Group horse at the time.
With more improvement than most I love his chance in this.

SELECTION – NATIONALISM Each Way 6/1 Bet365 Coral VC

Blindingly Obvious Form From The Racing Post

Blindingly Obvious Form From The Racing Post

Picture horse racing punters up and down the country
opening up their daily newspaper racing page
or flicking through the Racing Post sheets in their local bookmakers shop.

What is the most obvious element of racing form their eyes will
immediately latch on to?

Most likely it is the recent finishing positions from recent races.

If you see a horse with 000 ( failed to place in the top six in it’s last three races )
I suspect you would immediately discount it from your calculations.

If you note 111 however ( won it’s last three races ) your interest in betting on it will be tweaked.

And why not.

It is a proven consistent winner.

Probably the factor most weight is generally given to is it’s performance Last Time Out ( LTO )

The shrewd and canny amongst you are probably saying to yourself..

“Strike rate is only half the equation.
There is a very good chance that because winning last time out is so bleeding obvious
to everyone.. it is a factor that will over bet by the racing population and thus such horses
will offer long term poor value odds.”

Taking your questioning further you might ask..

“Are there any situations where horses that won last time out do better or worse than normal?

Is a horse that won a Group 1 race for example better to follow next race than a horse that win a maiden?”

Your average racing journalist or tv pundit will likely give you a load of personal hunch and supposition
on such matters.

Better you ask a more qualified horse racing researcher who can give you the cold hard facts.

Dave Renham has carried out research into this issue of last time out winners.

You can read his findings at the page below.

Horse Racing – Last Time Out Winners

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

The below was provided by RacingTrends

for more info click here ==> Horse Racing Blog

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Sat May 1st 2010

Best races for favourites

2.55 Thirsk

4.15, 5.25 Newmarket

6.45 Doncaster

Trainer stat to note

W Haggas has a good record with horses off track for 8+ weeks assuming they start in the top 3 of the betting. His strike rate is around 30% with profits of just under 30%. He runs Shamali in the 1.55 Newmarket and he is currently 3rd favourite.

Best race for front runners

5.15; 5.45 Thirsk

Strong course trainer stats

Doncaster trainer stats

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
M P Tregoning 5 13 38.5 +£3.30 +25.4 8.20
H R A Cecil 7 34 20.6 +£12.00 +35.3 7.15

Newmarket trainer stats

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
J H M Gosden 80 416 19.2 +£115.79 +27.8 5.25
J R Best 10 56 17.9 +£56.75 +101.3 3.05, 3.05, 4.15
H Candy 14 85 16.5 +£33.25 +39.1 3.40
A P O’Brien 16 98 16.3 +£21.89 +22.3 3.05, 3.05, 3.05

Horse Racing System Bets

Horse Racing System Selections

The following bets come from the increasingly famous
PunterProfits NH Portfolio.

This betting  method has been tested for over 15 years horse racing.
It averages 50 points level stakes profit each year.

Long term strike rate is about 40%

For more info click here ==>  Horse Racing System

SYSTEM C
Chp 4.45 Fongoli  ( 5/2 Coral , PaddyPower,  stan james )

SYSTEM D
Ban 3.20 Hello Nod  ( 5/1 William Hill )

If you are interested in a free trial of the PunterProfits service
email their admin address and ask about a free trial for sports betting blog readers.
http://www.punterprofits.com/contact.php

Saturday Horse Racing offer From Sunderlands Bookmaker

If you back the winner of the Cheltenham 3.10 on Saturday, Sunderlands will give you a free bet to the same stake in the Cheltenham 3.45 up to a maximum of £/€100

Terms and Conditions:

WIN ONLY bets apply

Free bet will be at SP

This offer cannot be used in conjunction with any other special offer

To visit Sunderlands Bookmaker click the link below

Sunderlands