Horse Racing Systems Archives

Horse Racing System Selections

Horse Racing System Selections

The following three bets are selections from a portfolio
of researched systems put out under the banner of the NH 500
portfolio on Dave Renham’s PunterProfits site.
( just one of the many interesting things going on there )

I put some of these up here on sports betting blog a
month or two back.

If my fading memory serves me right I believe there
were three out of four winners that day.
Read the rest of this entry

Horse Racing System Tips

Several tips from a racing system devised by Dave Renham for you today.

Well actually not one system.. more so from  a group or portfolio of systems.

He calls it the NH 500 Portfolio

For more info on it see here Horse Racing System Portfolio

Below are todays selections

 

NH 500 PORTFOLIO –

1.50 Warwick Rocky Creek 13/8   William Hill
2.05 Kempton Bally Legend 7/2   Stan JamesCoralBetfred
2.05 Kempton Midnight Haze 18/1   Paddy Power
3.00 Warwick The New One  8/11   William HillCoralBet365

 

NB Odds above are a copy of what was advised by email earlier this morning.

As ever odds are subject to change.

Live racing odds you can find here http://punterprofits.bestbetting.com/horse-racing

Horse Racing Statistics For Saturday

Knowledge is power when betting on horses.

Dave Renham’s RacingTrends is a service that provides is members with a wealth of statistical horse racing information each day.

It is NOT a racing tipping service.

More so a stat provision service cutting out hours of tedious study for it’s clients and providing a wealth of useful information on a plate to them.

Clients tend to be reasonably clued up punters who appreciate both the power of stats and research and the fact that it is very boring and tedious to compile such stats each day.  Stats to hand they can focus on the more interesting aspect of race assessment to find value bets or lays of their own.

Dave produces separate messages for Flat and National Hunt Racing.

Copied below for you is todays Flat Racing message.

 

 

Flat Message for Sat 8 Dec 2012

 

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

 

Lingfield aw favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

2yo maidens

98

266

36.8

-£28.02

-10.5

12.05

3yo+/4yo+ handicaps

362

1369

26.4

-£55.15

-4.0

12.40, 1.10,

2.50, 3.25

3yo+ maidens

63

153

41.2

-£10.30

-6.7

2.15

 

 

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

 

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR

Profit

ROI

Race Times

2yo nurseries

249

922

27

-£62.25

-6.8

Ling 11.35

3yo+/4yo+ sellers

214

574

37.3

+£26.22

4.6

Ling 1.40

 

 

DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

 

Course & distance (time)

Bottom third win %

Middle third win%

Top third win%

Lingfield aw 7f (12.40)

37

33

30

 

POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

 

12.05 Lingfield – Consign **: J Noseda – Lingfield aw; male aged 2 or 3yo; must be favourite; SR 56% ROI +30% (win & pl 76%)

 

12.05 Lingfield – Hurry Home Poppa **: Richarrd Kingscote riding in aw maidens for Tom Dascombe; must be top 3 in betting; Oct-Dec; SR 48%; ROI +62% (win & pl 80%)

1.40    Lingfield – Dark Lane: P Evans – class 6 sellers aged 4 and older SR 29% ROI +66% (win & pl 51%)

 

NEGATIVE STATS – Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

 

12.50 Lingfield – Kaylee: Poor Jockey Stat – 7lb claimers riding 2 and 3yos ALL RACES; SR 6% ROI -48% (win & pl 19%)

 

1.40    Lingfield – The Dancing Lord: Poor Jockey Stat – 7lb claimers riding 2 and 3yos ALL RACES; SR 6% ROI -48% (win & pl 19%)

 

POOR VALUE LAST TIME OUT WINNER – The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners in Flat races the strike rate (SR) is 16.2% and losses are -16.7%. These are my benchmarks.

 

None

 

PACE INFORMATION

 

Course

Leaders % (win)

Prominent / chased leaders % (win)

Hold up / behind % (win)

Lingfield aw 7f handicap (12.40)

1.1

1.4

0.7

Lingfield aw 1m handicap (2.50, 3.25)

0.9

1.2

0.9

 

Horses mentioned in 2 or more sections – none

 

RECENT TRAINER FORM – FLAT (last 14 days exc. Friday) – in strike rate order

 

Name

Wins

Runs

Strike rate (%)

Placed

Win & Placed

Win & Placed %

Engagements

James Given

1

2

50.0

0

1

50.0

Ling 12.40

David Elsworth

2

5

40.0

1

3

60.0

Ling 12.05

Jamie Osborne

5

14

35.7

4

9

64.3

Ling 1.40

Derek Haydn Jones

1

3

33.3

0

1

33.3

Ling 12.40, Ling 1.40, Ling 2.50

Jeremy Noseda

1

3

33.3

0

1

33.3

Ling 12.05

Robert Mills

1

4

25.0

1

2

50.0

Ling 11.35

J S Moore

3

13

23.1

2

5

38.5

Ling 11.35

John Gosden

2

9

22.2

1

3

33.3

Ling 2.15

John Ryan

4

19

21.1

2

6

31.6

Ling 1.10, Ling 3.25

Lisa Williamson

1

5

20.0

0

1

20.0

Ling 1.40, Ling 3.25

Pat Eddery

1

5

20.0

1

2

40.0

Ling 2.50

Pat Phelan

2

10

20.0

2

4

40.0

Ling 11.35, Ling 2.50, Ling 3.25

Stuart Williams

1

5

20.0

1

2

40.0

Ling 12.40

William Haggas

1

5

20.0

1

2

40.0

Ling 12.05

Kevin Ryan

2

12

16.7

3

5

41.7

Ling 12.05, Ling 12.40

Andrew Balding

3

19

15.8

2

5

26.3

Ling 11.35, Ling 2.15

Ian Williams

2

13

15.4

1

3

23.1

Ling 12.40, Ling 1.40, Ling 2.15

John Bridger

1

9

11.1

1

2

22.2

Ling 3.25

Marco Botti

2

18

11.1

3

5

27.8

Ling 11.35, Ling 12.05

Michael Attwater

1

9

11.1

1

2

22.2

Ling 1.10, Ling 2.15, Ling 3.25

David Evans

3

29

10.3

4

7

24.1

Ling 12.05, Ling 12.40, Ling 1.10, Ling 1.40, Ling 2.50

Richard Fahey

1

16

6.3

2

3

18.8

Ling 11.35, Ling 12.40

Alan McCabe

0

6

0.0

2

2

33.3

Ling 12.40, Ling 3.25

Bill Turner

0

4

0.0

0

0

0.0

Ling 1.10, Ling 1.40

Brendan Powell

0

8

0.0

1

1

12.5

Ling 12.05

David Lanigan

0

4

0.0

1

1

25.0

Ling 12.05

David Nicholls

0

8

0.0

2

2

25.0

Ling 1.40

Edward Vaughan

0

6

0.0

2

2

33.3

Ling 12.05, Ling 3.25

Mark H Tompkins

0

4

0.0

0

0

0.0

Ling 1.10

Mark Johnston

0

7

0.0

2

2

28.6

Ling 12.05, Ling 1.40

Michael Wigham

0

5

0.0

2

2

40.0

Ling 2.50

Reg Hollinshead

0

9

0.0

1

1

11.1

Ling 12.05

Richard Ford

0

4

0.0

0

0

0.0

Ling 2.50

Richard Rowe

0

4

0.0

0

0

0.0

Ling 1.10

Rod Millman

0

5

0.0

0

0

0.0

Ling 12.40

Roger Ingram

0

4

0.0

2

2

50.0

Ling 1.40, Ling 2.50

Scott Dixon

0

16

0.0

2

2

12.5

Ling 11.35

Tom Dascombe

0

7

0.0

3

3

42.9

Ling 12.05

Violet M Jordan

0

6

0.0

0

0

0.0

Ling 2.15

William Muir

0

7

0.0

2

2

28.6

Ling 11.35

 

 

COURSE TRAINER STATS FLAT

 

Lingfield trainer stats ALL RACES 2006 – Thursday (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Engagements

Jeremy Noseda

61

240

25.4

-£32.39

-13.5

12.05

Tom Dascombe

37

163

22.7

+£51.73

+31.7

12.05

Ian Williams

18

81

22.2

+£23.96

+29.6

12.40, 1.40, 2.15

Sir Michael Stoute

24

111

21.6

+£18.68

+16.8

2.15

John Gosden

46

243

18.9

-£20.65

-8.5

2.15

Kevin Ryan

50

266

18.8

-£34.78

-13.1

12.05, 12.40

Mark Johnston

98

540

18.2

-£163.36

-30.3

12.05, 1.40

David Lanigan

8

45

17.8

-£13.73

-30.5

12.05

Robert Mills

7

43

16.3

-£13.99

-32.5

11.35

William Haggas

25

157

15.9

-£60.82

-38.7

12.05

Stuart Williams

34

225

15.1

-£49.73

-22.1

12.40

Andrew Balding

43

294

14.6

-£83.06

-28.3

11.35, 2.15

J S Moore

63

453

13.9

+£18.75

+4.1

11.35

Alan McCabe

35

257

13.6

+£102.23

+39.8

12.40, 3.25

Michael Bell

21

155

13.6

-£50.40

-32.5

12.05

David Nicholls

11

85

12.9

-£6.76

-8.0

1.40

Jamie Osborne

35

271

12.9

-£34.17

-12.6

1.40

Marco Botti

24

196

12.2

-£35.30

-18.0

11.35, 12.05

Michael Wigham

17

141

12.1

-£23.25

-16.5

2.50

Richard Fahey

20

179

11.2

-£50.39

-28.2

11.35, 12.40

David Elsworth

26

245

10.6

-£50.36

-20.6

12.05

Pat Eddery

9

91

9.9

-£45.46

-50.0

2.50

Pat Phelan

18

183

9.8

+£43.15

+23.6

11.35, 2.50, 3.25

Derek Haydn Jones

5

51

9.8

+£5.00

+9.8

12.40, 1.40, 2.50

David Evans

53

549

9.7

-£180.77

-32.9

12.05, 12.40, 1.10, 1.40, 2.50

James Given

8

83

9.6

-£19.83

-23.9

12.40

Reg Hollinshead

2

21

9.5

-£3.00

-14.3

12.05

Bill Turner

18

198

9.1

-£55.80

-28.2

1.10, 1.40

Michael Attwater

27

300

9.0

-£17.45

-5.8

1.10, 2.15, 3.25

William Muir

24

276

8.7

-£171.25

-62.0

11.35

John Ryan

10

115

8.7

+£6.75

+5.9

1.10, 3.25

Scott Dixon

2

24

8.3

+£2.00

+8.3

11.35

Roger Ingram

12

160

7.5

-£93.46

-58.4

1.40, 2.50

John E Long

12

165

7.3

-£23.17

-14.0

3.25

Mark H Tompkins

9

128

7.0

-£31.50

-24.6

1.10

Edward Vaughan

7

105

6.7

-£60.89

-58.0

12.05, 3.25

Brendan Powell

17

272

6.3

-£109.00

-40.1

12.05

Lisa Williamson

1

16

6.3

+£10.00

+62.5

1.40, 3.25

Zoe Davison

5

94

5.3

-£26.50

-28.2

3.25

John Bridger

19

370

5.1

-£165.63

-44.8

3.25

Lydia Richards

2

40

5.0

-£2.50

-6.3

1.10

Rod Millman

6

125

4.8

-£81.50

-65.2

12.40

James Evans

1

36

2.8

-£30.50

-84.7

1.10

Richard Rowe

1

39

2.6

-£31.50

-80.8

1.10

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

——————————————————————————————

 

National Hunt Betting System Tip

A few weeks ago I mentioned a researched methodology from the PunterProfits website called the Nh 500

See long term research phase profits on this post

The live testing phase is producing some very good results and is very roughly £900 ahead to £100 bets at early prices.  That is after about nine bets live testing phase.. so early days but encouraging and backing up the most interesting long term research data.

There are two qualifers today from this methodology and I will post one of them here

Rajnagan 4.55 Cheltenham  you can get 12/1 BOG  boylesport or Victor Chandler and about 16/1  at Betfair.

NB The research data profits assume backing all on the nose.

Some will be at big prices however and the personal choice will always be there to go each way on such occassion.

If  interested in more information on this Nh 500 national hunt betting methodology go visit PunterProfits.com and ask about it.  It has spawned from their private member area and as of today there is no outer info webpage about it as yet.

 

NH 500 Portfolio Horse Racing Tip

This free racing tip today is from a new method now available to full members over at PunterProfits.com.

So far it has been done on the quiet only to full members there.

There is no info on it as yet on the outer PunterProfits site.

Christened the NH 500 Portfolio the rough idea is that several well researched methodologies are combined into a single portfolio to provide a diversified approach.

The data below is the researched data.

Everything below is based on Starting  Price and as such is conservative compared to real life returns making use of betting Exchanges such as Betfair of bookmaker early prices especially those offer Best Odds Guaranteed.

Year wins Runs SR% Profit ROI%
2003 112 322 34.78 25.66 7.97
2004 82 257 31.91 6.53 2.54
2005 84 247 34.01 9.34 3.78
2006 88 286 30.77 134.62 47.07
2007 87 275 31.64 35.01 12.73
2008 78 275 28.36 20.95 7.62
2009 103 346 29.77 149.76 43.28
2010 103 333 30.93 58.95 17.70
2011 98 344 28.49 74.38 21.62
2012 75 243 30.86 103.14 42.44
Totals 910 2928 31.08 618.34 21.12

Looking to the future the key concept is one of educated risk.

History certainly looks very positive.

Only two past selections emailed out to PunterProfits.com full members so far.

One loser then a winner yesterday at 10/3 early odds.

 

There is one selection today from the above methodology

4.00 Fontwell – Venetian Lad – 9/1 BOG with William Hill , Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, Stan James

Such a tip is best viewed sensibly.

In no way is it a nailed on winner.

Based on long term stats data of 21% ROI and nothing else one might assess it to be a true 7/1 chance but with 9/1 available at the bookies.

So it will still lose 7 times out of 8 but that one winner in eight will give you a net profitover the long term.

Bet a few hundred such value horses and you should be well ahead.

Go contact PunterProfits if you want extra detail data on the NH 500 such as a detailed spreadsheet containing info on all 2928 past qualifiers.

Such data is useful for stage two of any good betting approach that being sensible and suitable bank roll management.

 

 

Betting For Bread

I recall a story from a cousin of mine who got a summer job
in a factory that baked bread.
His job was bagging the bread or feeding bags into a bagging machine.
The exact same type of bread would be put into two different kinds of bag.

One was supermarket own brand as sold for £x
One was a fancier branded bag and that bread sold for £2x

People were not paying more for better bread.
They were paying more for a better bag :)

The same applies in many walks of life.
Tipping no different.
Some tipsters put a lot of effort into glossy presentation and charge a premium.
Strangely many buyers of certain mentality are drawn to higher ticket price items
as they associate cost with quality.

When looking at a Tipster service try and bear the bread story above in mind.
Try and cut through the gloss hype and presentation and instead focus on the facts of numbers.
On the net the opposite is true as well of course.
There are sites and tipsters with good results
who do a bad job of glossy presentation and are available at cheapish fees.

One example of that perhaps is the full member forum at the PunterProfits site.
Within many skilled members post up their own system and tipping threads.
Presentation values may be low but the numbers look very good.

Up untill this week infact visitors to PunterProfits would have had little idea such profitable tipping threads existed there.
Dave however has just put up a new page where he summarises his favoured picks of member submitted tipping threads.
See info at this link ==> Horse Racing Tips

Some very imprerssive profits listed there I am sure you would agree.

One of the upsides PunterProfits members have of course is access to Dave’s regular horse racing research articles and indepth research pdf reports.
They learn from these and the feedback loop goes on to produce some very profitable member threads on the private board there.
The site I guess as well attracts some reasonably clued up experienced punters
who have gone beyond buying into hype and instead see the benefit of having well researched data to help them assess races.
Even the free membership there is worth having as free members get access
to certain research articles that can help educate them on various aspects of horse racing.

Speed Ratings System

Speed ratings are quite simply a numerical measure of how fast a horse has run.

Top Speed in the Racing Post is a well known example of such a thing.

Creating speed ratings  however goes beyond mere clocking of a race time.

Ratings are often adjusted to account for factors such as going or course layout.

Picture two horses running at different tracks for example.

Both run similar distances races in the same time.

Are those horses equal in ability?

An initial knee jerk reaction may be to say yes.

But that may not be true.

Say for example Horse A ran on a flat track with good ground.

Horse B clocked the same time over the same distance but he ran on a more uphill course with more sticky ground conditions.

If horse A & B met in a  future race my pound would be on Horse B as it clocked the same time as Horse A but under tougher conditions.

Speed Rating compilers should if they are any good try and take account of such issues when compiling their speed ratings.

 

Speed Ratings System

There are several profitable tipping type threads in the full member area at www.PunterProfits.com

One of them called Speedy 3 and 4 Year Olds is based around speed ratings.

It has proven pretty succesful so far with a profit tally from May to the end of July of just over 40 points level stakes.

Qualifiers for today Saturday Aug 11th are as follows.

2-05 Ascot – Steps (6/1 general)

2-55 Haydock – Gabrial (5/2 general)

3-00 Newmarket – Zumbi (13/2 Paddy Power, Victor Chandler)

4-45 Newmarket – Uriah Heep

6-15 Lingfield – Al Janadeirya

 

Good luck if following these today.

Not every day is a winner but they are from a method that is starting to build up a very tasty long term profit level.

It is just one of several profitable threads in the PunterProfiits Full member area.

If you would like a free trial of that site contact me and I will sort it for you

 

 

Penalty Carriers in Uk Horse Racing

Horse Racing Penalty Carriers

In uk horse racing terms “a penalty” is extra weight
a horse must carry.

Normally it is applied if a horse has a second race
a few days after a win.

The official handicapper may not have had time to
reassess the horses official handicap mark
and due to the lack of time simply forces the horse
to carry penalty weight next time out.

It is I guess a system intended to stop
horses winning several times in very quick succession
from an over lenient handicap mark before the handicapper
has a chance to do his calculations and re assess the official handicap mark.

Penalty carries however have two obvious things going for them.
Having just won a  race they are obviously

- in good form

- have proven ability.

You can’t just back them all blindly and expect to make a profit however.
But with a bit of research you can certainly find past profitable niches
within penalty carriers.

See the article below for further reading.

Penalty Carriers

.

Free Horse Racing Trainer Research

Free Horse Racing Trainer Research

Each racing trainer has their own quirks and tendencies.

One area where they can differ is on seasonality or month of the year.

Different training regimes or even outlook on race targeting

can produce vastly different trainer performance results on a month by month basis.

Trainers stats for the season or year are commonly enough reported but they can be very misleading at times.

Take for example a flat trainer who perhaps roughly breaks even if followed
all season.

Dig a little deeper and you may find that early season performance is poor but he tends to pick up as the season goes on.

That slightly deeper knowledge may sway you to duck him early season but pay much more attention to him later in the season.

Anyone looking at annual stats alone may be blind to the truth.

Each month one of the small extras PunterProfits provide their full members

with is a report detailing Trainer performance records for the month ahead.

This month they have set it as free for all to view.

See ====>      July Trainer Stats

A few suggested ways to use the info:

#1 – Extra useful data for you if you like to assess races for yourself in
detail

#2 – A quick and ready reckoner to cross check any personal punt you were going to have.

ie If July trainers stats are favourable you can have more confidence you were correct.

If not perhaps revaluate your selection.

#3 – create a simple set of mechanical rules based on the report info to in

effect give yourself a mini trainer based horse racing system for July

I hope it helps add a small bit of extra edge to your performance over July.

.

Racing Tips Causing A Stir

Causing a stir right now over in the PunterProfits horse racing forum is a tipping thread making some crazy profits. The results after 56 days of live testing in front of members there are as follows

TOTALS

SP = 128.47 pts

BFSP (5% commision) = 268.54 pts

These are to level stakes may I stress !

The thread is Titled:  Simple Techniques – Well Handicapped Horses

I think there is a  bit of a clue as to the core methodology in the name:)

It is just one of several very  profitable threads in the full member forums at PunterProfits.com. It is a spot where many good racing brains gather and this is reflected in the depth and quality of profitable member tipping threads there.

Want  Free Trial?

If you have yet to benefit from the full member forums at PunterProfits and fancy a months free trial to test it for yourself do  the following.

#1 Register a user name for their forums.

Nb no need for step #1 if you already have a free user account at punterprofits

#2 Email the webmaster address there see http://www.punterprofits.com/contact.php and tell them you saw the free trial offer on Sports Betting Blog and would like to pay £0 for your first month of full membership. You will then be given a monthly subs join option with first month set to a big fat zero.

Go do it now if at all interested.

Here is the link    www.PunterProfits.com

.