This is a sample message from Dave Renham’s excellent RacingTrends Service.

NOT a tipping service. Much more so a stats service aimed at those who like to have well researched information to aid them making their own backing or laying decissions.

Typically he will produce separate messages covering both flat and national hunt.  This is the flat version which just happens to be all all weather racing today.

If you are interested in a  short free trial of this service to test it more fully yourself contact me and let me know and I will try and swing it for you.

Flat Message for Sat 4 Feb 2012

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT –

this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain
race types

Lingfield aw favourites

Wolverhampton aw favourites

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking
at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less
often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples
- hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner
handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle
third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

Wolverhampton aw 7f (2.05, 2.40) low draws
have a slight advantage although it is not a strong enough bias to be fully
confident in.

POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW) Please note – some
are price** or going* dependent 4.05 Lingfield – Falcon’s Reign **:
J Noseda – Lingfield aw; male aged 2 or 3yo; must be favourite; SR 56% ROI +30%
(win & pl 76%)

NEGATIVE STATS – Please note – some are price** or going*
dependent 4.05 Lingfield – Godber: Poor Jockey Stat – 7lb claimers
riding 2 and 3yos ALL RACES; SR 6% ROI -48% (win & pl 19%)

POOR VALUE LAST TIME OUT WINNER – The idea is to find horses
that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats
for all LTO winners in Flat races the strike rate (SR) is 16.2% and losses are
-16.7%. These are my benchmarks. None today

PACE INFORMATION

Lingfield aw 6f handicap (2.00) – Front
runners have a decent enough advantage. Here are the ratings for this race:
Waterloo Dock 3.9 Captain Dimitrios 3.3 Microlight 3.3 Efistorm 3.2 Mandy’s
Hero 3.1 Captainrisk 2.8 Waabel 2.8 Cut The Cackle 2.2 Fantasy Fighter 1.8 Forty
Proof 1.8

Conclusion – Waterloo Dock looks the best trading option here.

Lingfield aw 6f handicap (2.30) – Here are the ratings for
this race: Royal Intruder 3.6 High Voltage 3.1 Slatey Hen 3.1 Chjimes 2.5 Custom
House 2.4 Court Applause 2.4 Picansort 2.2 Diamond Vine 1.8 Memphis Man 1.5
The Wee Chief 1.5 Conclusion – no real front runner
to trade here.

Horses mentioned in 2 or more sections – none

RECENT TRAINER FORM – FLAT (last 14 days exc. Friday) – in
strike rate order

COURSE TRAINER STATS FLAT
Lingfield trainer stats ALL RACES 2006 – Thursday

(ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Wolverhampton trainer stats ALL RACES 2006 – Thursday
(ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Back Fitting Of Horse Racing Systems

The term back fitting when applied to horse racing systems
can be summarised as over engineering selection criteria
putting all logic and common sense aside in order to produce
what on paper looks to be a profitable historic approach.

The big danger in doing so is that non sensible criteria are likely to
lead to future losses even if researched history shows positive results.

Who Can Fall Prey To Back Fitting?

You perhaps

If you research your own systems it is important to try and think logically.
Are there good reasons why your selection criteria are likely to produce good results?
Be careful not to use silly criteria just because by random fluke
the monkeys with type writers of historical results scatter happen to show some positive results.

If you buy systems from a system vendor tread carefully too.
Remember the seller is often primarily concerned with making a quick buck from you.
Often what he cares about is putting up a big sexy past profits pound sign in front of your nose.
They want your cash today and care little about whether what they have sold you with a pile of hype
has significant chance of doing well in the future.

For more reading around this general concept of back fitting see
the article below.

==> Four Simple Horse Racing Systems

The following is a selection from the PunterProfits NH Portfolio horse racing system.

As the name suggests it is not one system but a collection of several combined into a portfolio.

There were four bets on Thursday from this system portfolio.

All won !

Nothing on Friday then a few again today.

But just one can I pop on here for free.  It’s a shortish price one.

Market Rasen 7.30 Saute  11/10 widely available inc Paddy Power VC Betfred Bet365

If interested in systems or good research that can help you identify your own systematic methods , read more about what is going on at PunterProfits at the link below

==> Horse Racing System <==

Everyone seems to be harping on about facebook these days so I thought I better get in on the act and set up a facebook page.

I would not claim to be any facebook expert but it seems that having more “Likes” is a good thing.

What I have done is instead of depending on your good will and charity is to offer you a blatent bribe to click Like on my facebook page.

Any facebook user who clicks the like button there will automatically get an interesting research report in betting on favourites in uk flat racing.

It’s an interesting and well researched report not normally given away for free.

Go and grab it for yourself right now however at http://www.sports-betting-blog.co.uk/facebook

Free Laying Tips

- 31 out of 33 succesful lays so far.

- A net profit of 24.5 pts after 33 lays ( At Betfair SP )

- They are free.

Sound of interest?

These laying tips are newish to Dave Renham’s Horse Racing Blog

Whist new to his blog they originate from his analysis of years of past data.

They are actually determined from a small portfolio of independant past profitable approaches.

So there is quite a bit of research work behind them but the exact rules Dave wishes to keep secret for obvious reasons.

Worth Noting !

My early gut reaction to these lay selections is that they might best be viewed as a raw set of selections from which to select your own personal subset to actually place cash on.

The obvious area to bear in mind might be restricting yourself to laying below a certain odds band of your choice.

The odds range of selections is quite varied.

Dave on his thread uses a very simple and I guess the industry standard method of monitoring lay success.

ie a one point stake is deemed to be taken on the betting Exchange. Thus you win one point ( before commission ) on every succesful lay but face varying losses if a horse happens to win.

Considering the range of odds on these free lay selections ponder using a laibility based approach.

With this type of approach your risk remains constant no matter what odds.

What varies is how much you win on successful lays.

ie you adjust the stake posted up on Betfair to give yourself a pre determined liability. With this method you are not so afraid of long priced horses as how long a horses odds are will not impact on how much you can lose on a lay ( just how much you can win )

Value if you rememebr is not just about what odds a selection is at.  More key is the available odds to true odds ratio. A liability based aproach can often help you attack value lays at longer odds.

Anyhow..these free laying tips are worth a look.

Coming from Dave you know they are not random hunch type stuff. Much more so the result of a lot of nose to the grindstone research over many years.

Free is a good price

Click Here ==> Free Laying Tips

PunterProfits is a great site for thinking punters who appreciate the benefits of having lots of racing research work done for them.

Dave Renham has knocked up a few words below highlighting some of
the key things going on in the full member area now.

PS Note info at the bottom about the Christmas sale

—————————————————————————-

PunterProfits is an on-line betting
community where punters share racing systems, betting ideas, tips, research
and the like. The content is mainly horse racing, but football does get an airing,
as does greyhound racing and other sports.

At first glance the
website may look a little over-whelming, as there is so many options
and places to check out. However, it is fairly straight-forward once
you get your bearings as essentially it is a forum with numerous threads.
The forum is split in different sections – the busiest two are ‘Racing-
Daily Tips’ and ‘Racing – Systems, Ratings’. These two sections
have several threads that are on-going and updated each day. Most members
follow threads that suit their betting style, as well as following the
more profitable ones!

One of the impressive
aspects about the threads on PunterProfits is how often big priced winners
are found. For example:

25/11/2010 – on the
aw pacey thread Abulharith was tipped up going on to win at 50/1
and paying a massive 88.5 Betfair SP;

28/10/2010 – on the
October trainers thread Educated Evans was a selection winning at
a huge 66/1 and paying roughly double that Betfair SP at 132.47. This
horse was also flagged up on the NH Trainer Report thread.

9/10/2010 – on the
Pacey thread Tres Coronas won at 33/1 and paid a massive 86.49 on
Betfair SP;

8/10/2010 – on the
2 system to trial thread No Supper won at 33/1 (BSP 49.18)

30/9/2010 – on the

Sam Specials thread Dance and Dance won at 33/1 (BSP 50.0)

28/9/2010 – on the
Draw Biases thread, a tricast was landed producing a profit of £842.30
thanks to the 2^nd and 3^rd horses being priced
at 25/1 and 18/1 respectively. The bet was equivalent to a 36/1 winner.

30/7/2010 – on the
Sam Specials thread Joseph Henry was advised at 40/1 and won (SP
was 28/1 and BSP 46.54).

7/7/2010 – on the
Sam Specials thread Crown won at 50/1 paying 61.38 BSP.

21/6/2010 – on the Market Bias system

thread there was an incredible double with Blue
Aura winning at 25/1 (BSP 31.61) and half an hour later The Jailer winning
at 66/1 (BSP 94.57).

14/5/2010 – on the
Market Bias system thread Ginger Ted won at 40/1 paying a huge 107.53
Betfair SP.

Several big priced
winners show that these are not just flashes in the pan. One aspect
of betting that we encourage at PunterProfits is the need to find VALUE.
To make regular profits from betting there is not one single method
that works, but getting value about your selections is key. We emphasise
the need to use early prices and/or Betfair to enhance profits. As you
will see from the Betfair SPs above, there is a huge advantage to using
Betfair SP especially on big priced runners.

Let me now look at
some of the threads in the full member’s area at PunterProfits:

Terrys Lays

This thread has been our most
successful laying thread since it was launched in July 2007. To date profits
stand at £16,456 to £100 per lay; even at just £20 per lay profits stand at
an impressive £3291.20. The method revolves about laying Racing Post forecast
favourites and has made a profit in each of the four years we have been running
it. This year’s profit stands at about £5000 to £100 per lay.

Southwell breeding thread

This thread revolves
around the fact that Southwell favours certain horses that are influenced
in their pedigree by American breeding. This had been running since
January 2010 and after 90 selections profits stand at +33.62pts to SP;
39.89pts to BSP. Hence £20 per selection at BSP would have yielded
a profit of £797.80. Selections occur mainly in the winter months as
this is when the majority of all weather meetings at Southwell take
place.

Sam’s Specials

This thread started
on June 10^th 2010 and soon established itself as one of the
threads to follow. Sam looks at a variety of strong statistics each
day from which he makes his selections. By the end of November profits
stood at an impressive +192.74pts to advised prices; +153.16 using Betfair
SP at level stakes. At £20 per selection profits to advised prices
stand at a highly impressive £3854.80. No wonder he has a huge following.
He is not afraid to put up big prices and he started December in the
same vein as previous months with each way selection Ad Vitam finishing
2^nd at 80/1.

Saintmartin’s
Daily Selections

This thread is one
for those who like high strike rates. He uses a staking system to aid
profits and at the end of November profits stood at +72.23 points. The
staking plan is a sensible one which increases only small amounts after
a loser. A very consistent thread.

Pacey/AW Pacey/NH
Pacey

There are three separate
threads run by the same member all based on the idea of pace bias. All
3 are in profit at the end of November 2010. Often horses are decent
prices and this is definitely a thread where it is SO IMPORTANT to beat
SP because although SP profits are excellent at +44.46pts, BSP profits
stand a huge +155.87pts. At £20 this is a difference in profit of £2228.20
– now that is going to make a big difference to most people.

Going Going Gone

This is a relatively
new thread focusing on horses that has shown strong preference for certain
types of going. To the end of November this thread had nailed 8 winners
from 50 for a profit of +21.33 to SP (BSP profit +34.49). Winners have
been a mixture of prices from 5/6 to 25/1. Looks one to keep a close
eye on.

Market Bias system

This has wound up for the year
as it concentrates on the summer months. However, it will be back in May. In
2010 profits stood at +124.75pts; in 2009 profits were +40.18. At £20 per bet
therefore these two summers would have yielded a fantastic profit of £3298.60.
The selections tend to be at the higher end so it is a thread that requires
patience. However, as you may have noted above this thread had a 66/1 winner
and a 25/1 winner on the same day this year.

NH Trainer Report

This thread notes selections
connected with strong trainer trends that were highlighted in the National
Hunt Trainer Report. The National Hunt Trainer Report is a 122 page
report that you receive for free if you join the full member’s area.
This thread had noted numerous winners in the first couple of months
of the season including a 66/1 winner.

—-

As you can hopefully
see, this forum is surely the best in the business. Numerous threads
banging out winners on a consistent basis – and not just short priced
jollies either! Not only that, members are hugely supportive of each
other which is fantastic.

Not only do you get
some fantastic daily tips/bets, you also get much, much more. This includes:

1. Regular betting articles
– over 130 articles are free to view with virtually every topic you
can think of being addressed. For example favourites, sires, the draw,
pace bias, trainer stats, jockeys stats, recent form, betting in running,
placepots; exotic bets, etc, etc;

2. Free System checking
– if anyone has a system they want to check the results, but do not have the
capability, then Punter Profits is happy to have a look and see if we can check
it over past years for you. This could save you a lot of time not to mention
cash if it turns out to be a dud or if course it might quickly confirm you are
on to a winning approach

3. Regular Research Reports
– detailed racing research reports / booklets are collated and given to members
for FREE. Some reports run in to over 100 pages of detail. Topics explored include
Flat Trainers, NH Trainers, Favourites etc. ( you get to keep these big reports
even if you just upgrade for a short time )

—————————————————————————-

CHRISTMAS SALE

We like drinking beer.

If you give us £3 to buy a pint with, we will provide
you with full membership here for three weeks.

A very fair deal considering you get to keep the big research
reports even if you do not wish to remain a member after that.

Step 1 – Register a free account at
http://www.punterprofits.com

Step 2 – Log In

Step 3- Follow the prominent upgrade link once logged in.

Step 4 – Pay your three quid and you you will be upgraded to
full member status

The below is todays lay selection from a  well researched and live tested approach called Terrys Lays.

Terrys lays are one of the many things you get as a full member of www.PunterProfits.com. Selections are emailed out daily.

So far in 2010 with a one point lay on each selection you would be in the region of 55 points ahead !

The method has further proven similar past success however over past years as well.

Long term strike rate is a very comfortable 85%

PunterProfits provide a detailed spreadsheet of historic results.

Obviously a useful aid to anyone seeking to refine their personal staking plan.

For details click this link ==>   Horse Laying Tips

Today’s selection from this method is

6.20 Wolv – Sworn Tigress

Currently layable at about 7/4 on Betfair

COURSE TRAINER STATS FOR NEWBURY

These stats were provided by Dave Renham of www.RacingTrends.co.uk

RacingTrends members receive a wealth of well
researched horse racing information on a daily basis.

These Trainer For Course Stats are just the tip of the iceberg really.

RacingTrends is a useful service for those who do not like to follow simple tips like sheep but instead prefer to make their own betting decissions.

RacingTrends and all the well researched info provided daily cuts out a lot of the necessary grunt research work to such an approach.

ALL RACE TYPES 2005 – Thursday
25^th Nov 2010
(ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Newbury Trainer Stats ALL
HURDLES 2005 – Thursday 25^th Nov 2010
(ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Newbury Trainer Stats ALL
CHASES 2005 – Thursday 25^th Nov 2010
(ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Blindingly Obvious Form From The Racing Post

Picture horse racing punters up and down the country
opening up their daily newspaper racing page
or flicking through the Racing Post sheets in their local bookmakers shop.

What is the most obvious element of racing form their eyes will
immediately latch on to?

Most likely it is the recent finishing positions from recent races.

If you see a horse with 000 ( failed to place in the top six in it’s last three races )
I suspect you would immediately discount it from your calculations.

If you note 111 however ( won it’s last three races ) your interest in betting on it will be tweaked.

And why not.

It is a proven consistent winner.

Probably the factor most weight is generally given to is it’s performance Last Time Out ( LTO )

The shrewd and canny amongst you are probably saying to yourself..

“Strike rate is only half the equation.
There is a very good chance that because winning last time out is so bleeding obvious
to everyone.. it is a factor that will over bet by the racing population and thus such horses
will offer long term poor value odds.”

Taking your questioning further you might ask..

“Are there any situations where horses that won last time out do better or worse than normal?

Is a horse that won a Group 1 race for example better to follow next race than a horse that win a maiden?”

Your average racing journalist or tv pundit will likely give you a load of personal hunch and supposition
on such matters.

Better you ask a more qualified horse racing researcher who can give you the cold hard facts.

Dave Renham has carried out research into this issue of last time out winners.

You can read his findings at the page below.

Horse Racing – Last Time Out Winners