A few pointers to some big priced horses runnign at Ascot this afternoon from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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Another good day yesterday as our main bet POLLYS MARK won for full Members  at 5/2.
It looked like he had been caught on the line by a fast finisher but we got the verdict
and I’ll happily take that as we have had big priced horses beaten this year at 1.01 and similar prices in running.
Whilst nobody believes these things even out over a season its nice to get one that did look like getting away from us.
Either a great ride or one nice piece of luck but either way another valuable winner.
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On to Today

ASCOT 3.40

Totesport.com Challenge Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 7f

13/2 Redford, 10/1 Axiom, Kakatosi, 10/1 Sarasota Sunshine
12/1 Side Glance, 16/1 Rulesn´regulations, 16/1 St Moritz
20/1 Citrus Star, 20/1 Noble Citizen, 20/1 Suruor, 25/1 Acrostic 25/1 Advanced, 25/1 Colepeper,
Gramercy, 25/1 Imperial Guest, 25/1 Navajo Chief, Swift Gift, 25/1 Treadwell, 25/1 Wannabe King
33/1 Castles In The Air, Golden Desert, 33/1 Light From Mars 33/1 Mia´s Boy, 40/1 Gallagher,
Jimmy Styles 40/1 Kyllachy Star 40/1 Lowdown, 50/1 Bonnie Charlie, 50/1 Marajaa.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-106
* Ascot has had 18 renewals but 2 were run at other tracks
* There has been 38 Similar races at other tracks
* Horses from 6f races underperformed
* Those with 13 + career starts were 1-78
* Horses aged 4 or 5 from 6f races were 0-49
* No horse aged 7 or more came from 6f
* Horses beaten 4 + lengths over 6f last time were 0-47
* Those from 6f absent a Month won nothing
* The following horses from 6f races are all rejected
* GOLDEN DESERT -CASTLES IN THE AIR – JIMMY STYLES
* ADVANCED – GRAMERCY – LOWDOWN – BONNIE CHARLIE
* REDFORD is exposed and won a 6f handicap last time
* No past winner of this race was like him
* There was 1 similar winner in the 38 other races
* That horse didnt have a penalty and he is opposable
* In 38 races horses aged 7 or more were just 1-50
* MARAJAA looks too old
* Horses absent 7 + weeks were 2-81 in the 38 races
* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-36
* Those aged 5 or more with that absence were 0-23
* MIA´S BOY – NOBLE CITIZEN fail that
* Horses from 3yo handicaps were 2-45
* Those that came from 7f or shorter were 0-29
* Those absent more than a Month were 0-24
* Those that won 3yo handicaps last time were 0-10
* NAVAJO CHIEF – KAKATOSI are opposed on those angles
* You dont want a 3 year old that ran in Group class before
* In 38 similar races these horses are 0-71
* TREADWELL fails that
* Horses from 8f races won 9 of the 38 races
* Those absent more than a Month were 0-43
* ST MORITZ fails that
* ACROSTIC fails that
* SIDE GLANCE fails that
* Horses from 8f races won 9 of the 38 races
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 3-94
* None of these were aged 5 or more like ACROSTIC
* In 38 similar races Fillies have a 1-55 record
* None were aged 4 + (0-26) or had 7 + runs (0-44)
* SARASOTA SUNSHINE fails that
* I looked at 4 year olds with 13 + career starts
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that year were 1-24
* WANNABE KING fails that and isnt like that 1 winner
* That winner had more backclass than he does
* The same is said for SURUOR
* He is a similar type and unlike any winners
* KYLLACHY STAR is an exposed 4 year old
* He comes from a 7f handicap within 2 weeks
* There were winners like that but all came from better races
* Males aged 4 absent over a Month were 1-40
* RULESN´REGULATIONS fails that and looks unsafe
* AXIOM won a 7f handicap last time
* Horses doing that had a 2-32 record
* None were absent more than 2 weeks (0-18)
* There was 1 exposed horse doing like him
* He had a more recent run less weight and more runs that year
* AXIOM has problems I dont think he will overcome
* Horses aged 3 with 5 + career starts were 7-140
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5-6 runs that year were just 1-83
* Those that didnt run within 7 days were 0-82
* CITRUS STAR fails that and is opposed
* SWIFT GIFT is a 5 year old absent 42 days
* No winners like that won with his absence
* SWIFT GIFT is vulnerable with that absence

SHORTLIST

GALLAGHER  40/1
IMPERIAL GUEST 25/1
COLEPEPER 33/1
LIGHT FROM MARS 40/1

* COLEPEPER is 3 and comes from 8f
* 3 year olds doing that with 9 + runs were 2-24
* Those beaten under 6 lengths last time were 2-12
* I would not rule him out at a big price
* LIGHT FROM MARS is an exposed 5yo
* He comes from a 7f handicap and has no Group form
* Horses like that running within 4 weeks were 4-22
* Those with 8 + runs this year beaten under 10 lengths last time
* This improved his record to 4-14
* The 1992 and 2001 winners of this race had that profile
* IMPERIAL GUEST  is an exposed 4 year old
* He comes from a 7f handicap within 2 weeks
* Horses with that profile had a 2-5 record in 38 races
* The 2002-2003 winners had the same profile
* GALLAGHER is 4 and has 13 + career starts
* He comes from a 7f handicap in the last fortnight
* Horses with that profile with 7 + runs this season are 4-23
* Those beaten less than 6 lengths last time are 4-17
* The 2002-2003 winners had the same profile
* The 2002 winner even came from the same Handicap as him

SELECTION

GALLAGHER  40/1
IMPERIAL GUEST 25/1
COLEPEPER 33/1
LIGHT FROM MARS 40/1

My shortlist has thrown up 4 rank outsiders.
Don’t know if thats a ridiculous fluke or what’s happened there !!
If there is one selection then GALLAGHER  at 40/1 interests me as the best option
but at these prices I’d be an idiot not to have some small bets on all 4.
I have decided on a pretty low stake that I’m prepared to lose in a race as vile
as this and I’ve had small bets on all 4 of these runners on Betfair at prices that
are far bigger than they should be.
I doubt I will get the winner but the angles steer me this way and at these prices its not too
hard to trust them and have 4 small value bets at massive prices.

Betfair is probably your best bet if betting long odds horses on the nose.

The link below gives best bookie odds however.

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-09-25/ascot/15-40/betting/

best wishes
Guy

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