Saturday Horse Racing Bets From www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Gustavo (1.25 Sandown) –

best price 33/1 (sporting bet / Skybet) – EACH WAY

Approved Force (3.05 Sandown)

– take 22/1 best odds guaranteed atWilliam Hill – EACH WAY

Diriculous (3.30 Great Leighs)

- take 2/1 best odds guaranteed at William Hill / Stan James / Boyle Sports – WIN

Saturday Racing

First some trends – 15 years worth

2.35 Sandown – Tingle Creek Chase – 2 miles (Grade 1)

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends analysis: favourites
have a fairly good record, but it looks best to concentrate on the top three
in the betting as they have provided 80% of the winners. Indeed focusing on
horses priced 15/2 or shorter has provided every single winner in the last 15
years. From there, pay special attention to horses either making their seasonal
debuts, and/or those who were first or second in the betting on their most recent
start. Moving onto negatives, if they raced at Cheltenham or Ascot last time
out this then there is almost certainly value looking elsewhere, as is there
looking for horses that finished 3^rd or worse LTO (having completed
course). This process should pinpoint a clear trends pick. In terms of age,
5 years have a good record from a small number of runners, while 9 year olds
or older look poor value.

Conclusion – Master Minded
has a good trends profile; slightly better than second favourite TidalBay, but
TidalBay looks the value price of the pair to me.

3.05 Sandown – Listed handicap hurdle 2 miles ½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends analysis: favourites
have a poor record which is no surprise considering the race usually attracts
a big field and hence is a competitive affair. Having said that outsiders have
a poor record also, so it seems best to focus on horses priced under 20/1. The
bottom five in the weights have won 67% of the races from just 37% of the runners,
so these horses merit close scrutiny, as do horses won last time out. Horses
to avoid seem to be horses at the top of the weights, beaten favourites last
time out, 7 year olds and older, and horses that have been off the track for
7 or more weeks.

Conclusion – from a trends
perspective Spear Thistle looks the one to be on.

At an each way price Approved
Force looks interesting. Had good form as 3yo and he looks overpriced. Hills
offer best odds guaranteed at 22/1 and that rates good each way value.

2.00 Sandown – Henry VIII Novices’ Chase – 2 miles (Grade
2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

GENERAL STATS

Trends analysis: the top
two in the market have dominated this event winning a all bar one of the races,
with favourites doing especially well winning 67% of them. From here you need
to focus on good jumpers as none of the winners had previous fallen in their
careers. Last time out winners have a good record, while horses that ran at
Cheltenham last time out have a good record also.

Conclusion – of the front
two in the market, second favourite Araldur has the better profile and at 7/2
looks better value.

——————–

1.25 Sandown – this is an
open handicap hurdle but one horse stands out for me at the early prices. Gustavo
hails from a stable that seems to be running into form and he has plenty of
other positives as well. He has a good record fresh, has a good record on right
handed tracks (4 wins, 2 placed from 8 ) and acts on the ground. The jockey
looks a potential negative but he has an 18% strike rate for Venetia Williams
so perhaps that is not a worry. At 33/1 best price at sporting bet and Sky bet
/ mid 40s on Betfair he looks a worthwhile punt. If you don’t have an account
with sporting bet / Sky bet then take the best odds guaranteed at either bet
365 or William Hill (both price up at 25/1).

3.30 Great Leighs – Diriculous
looks a solid favourite and 2/1 looks a fair bet to me.

This message was provided by Dave Renham of www.RacingTrends.co.uk

2.00 Cheltenham – The Servo Computer Services Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 3½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Third and fourth favourites have provided 7 winners from 27 qualifiers and backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £22.50 (ROI +83.3%).

Position LTO: 10 of the 15 winners finished in the first three last time out.
Age: 5, 6 and 7 year olds have produced 7 winners from 32 qualifiers (SR 21.9%) showing a profit of £16.62 (ROI +51.9%).

Class LTO: 10 of the 15 winners raced in the same class last time out. Backing all 39 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £23.75 (ROI +50.5%).

Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 4 winners from just 12 runners for a profit of £6.87 (ROI +57.3%).

Sex of horse: Fillies and mares have won 2 races from just 5 qualifiers.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Second favourites have a dreadful record wins 0 wins from 15 runners.

Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced only 2 winners from 57 runners for a loss of £32.00 (ROI -56.1%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites (including joints) from 20 qualifiers showing a loss of £4.63 (ROI -23.2%).

LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have recorded 4 wins from 25 qualifiers showing a small profit of £2.12 (ROI +8.5%).

Age: 8 year olds have produced 2 winners from 40 qualifiers (SR 5%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 10 year olds have produced 2 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 11 year olds plus have won 2 from 11 (SR 18.2%).

Trends analysis: younger horses (5 to 7yos) have an excellent record winning 47% of the races from just 24% of the runners, and all such runners require very close scrutiny. Recent form seems fairly important with 10 of the 15 winners having finished in the first three on their last run. Third and fourth favourites have a good record, as do horses racing in the same class. In terms of price, horses priced in double figures not surprisingly struggle. The Pipe stable have done well in the past, but it should be noted that both David Pipe’s runners have been pulled up in the past two seasons.

Conclusion – Opera Mundi loves soft / heaby ground with 4 wins and a second from 5 runs on such ground. He is the preferred age bracket although his last run saw him fail to finish. Halcon Genelardais and Flintoff are other I quite like in this heat, but I’m going for Opera Mundi.

2.35 Cheltenham – this race tends to favour the front end of the betting. Barbers Shop is the most interesting for me. Henderson has recently had a poor record in chases at Cheltenham – losing run stretches back to an incredible 41 losers. However, this is a trainer who has previously had a great record in chases at this track and he will surely break the hoodoo soon. The stable have been cracking form and Barbers Shop should go very close. I also like Maljimar who has a good record fresh and well enough on easy ground. I am going split stake on the pair. At big odds Stan is interesting if he can get home in the ground.

3.10 Cheltenham – Sullumo is my pick is an trappy contest with dangers including Valerius.

3.45 Cheltenham – Qanta De Thaix has been backed off the boards having been in double figures on on Betfair last night. Any value has gone, but with the Pipe stable winning this four times in a row earlier in the decade, this is clearly a race they like. At a price I like Jocheski – was 33/1 at Ladbrokes early but 25s around now and bigger on Betfair. His 2nd at Hereford in May is solid form with the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th going on to win at least once since (admittedly the 3rd that day has won on the flat since and not over hurdles). Very close to an account bet but there are too mnay unexposed hurdlers in this for me to go in big.