Saturday Football Tips From Football Bets

1pt Aston Villa to beat Newcastle in the Premiership, 7/5 Bet365, Coral  (Sunday 24th May 4pm ko)

If Newcastle do not take at least a point away from Villa Park on Sunday, they will be relegated.
It is a game they cannot afford to lose.
However, as is so often the case at this time of year, the prices have moved far too much and
do not accurately reflect the true chances of each outcome.
Consequently, there is value to be had in backing the home team.

Villa’s form in the second half of the season has been terrible.
They were six points ahead of Arsenal in fourth place back in March but now lie ten
points behind them in sixth. They have also won just one of their last five matches. However,
Aston Villa still have more than enough quality to beat a very poor Newcastle side.
Had this game been played six weeks ago then Villa would be long odds on and 7/5 about a
home win is a very big price. Although Villa have little to play for, they will still want to win their
final home game and can still finish fifth above Everton, which would represent progress on last season.

Newcastle have won just twice on the road all season and have scored just two goals in their last five away games.
They have wasted chances to pull clear of the drop zone at home to Portsmouth and Fulham recently
and this is a far harder task. Newcastle’s record against top half opposition has also been dreadful this season.
In nineteen fixtures they have won just twice and both of those were home games.

The Geordies are missing several important players for this fixture too.
The absence of full backs Beye and Enrique will be especially difficult to deal with as
they have no natural replacements. Beye in particular has been an important player for
Newcastle and they have won just one of twenty four fixtures without him.
There is a twenty five point gap between these two sides in the table and just because
Newcastle need the points more than Villa do, does not justify a price of 7/5 about a home win.

Minimum price to take – 11/10

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