Draw Bias Stats

Draw Bias Stats

The draw can play a very important role in flat racing.

There are proven biases to certain stall positions over certain course and distances.

Dave Renham is renouned as on of the uk’s leading experts on Draw Bias.

One small element of his daily messages to clients at his Racing Trends service is a section detailing any significant draw bias for that day’s racing.

I have copied today’s Draw Bias section for you below.

If you are the sort who likes to think about their racing and who prefers to make your own mind up as to what to back or lay instead of just following a tipster you may find the RacingTrends service are great daily resource.

Packed full of well researched stats and info it can only help your decission making.

Contact me here at sports betting blog and I should be able to arrange a short free test period trial for you.

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DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

Course & distance (time) Bottom third win % Middle third win% Top third win%
Bath 5f (1.45) 10 0 90
Bath 5f161yds (5.40) 65 4 30
Chester 5f (1.40) 82 9 9
Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35) 21 63 16
Doncaster 1m (1.50, 4.50) 27 36 36
Kempton aw 5f (5.50) 44 41 15
Kempton aw 1m (7.20) 37 33 29
Kempton aw 7f (9.20) 41 34 25
Newcastle 1m (2.00, 2.35) 38 31 31
Newcastle 6f (3.10) 19 30 52
Newcastle 5f (5.25) 37 21 42

Bath 5f (1.45) higher draws do best here as low draws tend to go off too quickly. There are only 10 races in this sample so the bias is not as strong as it looks!

Bath 5f161yds (5.40) high draws used to dominate, but it seems lower drawn runners go off at a more steady pace these days hence being more able to take advantage of the bend.

Chester 5f (1.40) low draws have a very significant edge over this C&D. The lower the draw the better.

Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35) low draws are perceived to have an edge over this extended 7f, but the figures suggest this is not the case. The value lies with middle drawn horses.

Kempton aw 5f (5.50) low draws have the edge here with higher draws struggling.

Kempton aw 7f (9.20) high draws struggle a little over this distance. Low draws tend to have an advantage when the field size hits 13 runners or more.

Newcastle 6f (3.10) high draws do best and occasionally completely dominate races.

Newcastle 5f (5.25) low draws tend to have the edge, especially in bigger fields, or when the stalls are placed far side (low). However, in fields of 10-12 with the stalls placed stands side, high draws can have an edge.

 

 

 

 

Football Tipster Bet

1pt Peterborough to beat Blackpool in the Championship, 11/4 Skybet (Saturday 26th September 3.00pm KO)

Blackpool have got off to a flying start to this season and are sitting comfortably in seventh place. However, I feel this is definitely a false position and Peterborough are value as a result. The Tangerines have had a fair bit of luck over the last few weeks and Ian Holloway was almost embarrassed in the post match interview last week, freely admitting that his side had utterly mugged Nottingham Forest who completely dominated from start to finish. Peterborough got off to a slow start but are beginning to find their feet at this level and are growing in confidence. They are now unbeaten in six games in all competitions. Recent results have been very encouraging with their mid week Carling cup victory over Newcastle following a good win over Reading at the weekend. Before that they picked up two good points on the road away at QPR and Leicester. Peterborough’s attacking trident of McLean, Boyd and Mackail-Smith are a real threat and they have to be worth a small interest at a very big price.

The Oracle
To Vist The Oracle’s site click here ==> football betting tipster

Course Favourite Statistics

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS – this section looks at the stats for favourites at today’s courses in certain race types (data taken from 2002 to 2008)

This is just a small section of a very comprehensive horse racing statistics message provided daily by the excellent www.RacingTrends.co.uk

( give it a go.. get your money back with their 30 day refund guarantee if not for you in the end )

  Ascot favourites  

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI % Race times
3yo handicaps 18 70 25.7 +£7.38 +10.5 3.15, 5.35
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 49 240 20.4 -£36.47 -15.2 1.25, 3.50

  York favourites  

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI % Race times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 75 334 22.5 +£11.46 +3.4 2.35, 3.45, 4.50, 5.25
2yo maidens 35 95 36.8 +£0.11 +0.1 4.15

  Newmarket July favourites  

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI % Race times
3yo handicaps 40 155 25.8 -£6.77 -4.4 2.50, 4.35, 5.10
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 83 333 24.9 -£15.02 -4.5 2.20, 3.25
2yo maidens 62 161 38.5 +£2.82  +1.8 1.50, 4.00

  Newcastle favourites  

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI % Race times
3yo handicaps 29 94 30.9 +£12.41 +13.2 4.10
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 67 320 20.9 -£29.66 -9.3 4.45, 5.20, 6.25
2yo maidens 44 122 36.1 -£3.71 -3.0 3.00, 3.30

  Salisbury favourites  

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI % Race times
3yo handicaps 20 106 18.9 -£35.98 -33.9 8.40
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 54 262 20.6 -£67.37 -25.7 6.00, 8.10
3yo+ maidens 18 49 36.7 -£7.14 -14.6 7.35
3yo only maidens 24 52 46.2 +£15.24 +29.3  
2yo maidens 36 119 30.3 -£17.79 -14.9 7.05

  Lingfield (turf) favourites  

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI % Race times
3yo handicaps 28 93 30.1 +£22.80 +24.5 7.55
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 49 186 26.3 +£7.63 +4.1 5.45, 6.15, 8.25
3yo+ maidens 31 73 42.5 -£3.31 -4.5 7.20
3yo only maidens 6 12 50.0 -£1.57 -13.1  
2yo maidens 47 92 51.1 +£9.51 +10.3 6.45

Info provided by RacingTrends. To visit their site click here ==> UK Horse Racing Advice

Saturday Football Tips

Saturday Football Tips From Football Bets

1pt Aston Villa to beat Newcastle in the Premiership, 7/5 Bet365, Coral  (Sunday 24th May 4pm ko)

If Newcastle do not take at least a point away from Villa Park on Sunday, they will be relegated.
It is a game they cannot afford to lose.
However, as is so often the case at this time of year, the prices have moved far too much and
do not accurately reflect the true chances of each outcome.
Consequently, there is value to be had in backing the home team.

Villa’s form in the second half of the season has been terrible.
They were six points ahead of Arsenal in fourth place back in March but now lie ten
points behind them in sixth. They have also won just one of their last five matches. However,
Aston Villa still have more than enough quality to beat a very poor Newcastle side.
Had this game been played six weeks ago then Villa would be long odds on and 7/5 about a
home win is a very big price. Although Villa have little to play for, they will still want to win their
final home game and can still finish fifth above Everton, which would represent progress on last season.

Newcastle have won just twice on the road all season and have scored just two goals in their last five away games.
They have wasted chances to pull clear of the drop zone at home to Portsmouth and Fulham recently
and this is a far harder task. Newcastle’s record against top half opposition has also been dreadful this season.
In nineteen fixtures they have won just twice and both of those were home games.

The Geordies are missing several important players for this fixture too.
The absence of full backs Beye and Enrique will be especially difficult to deal with as
they have no natural replacements. Beye in particular has been an important player for
Newcastle and they have won just one of twenty four fixtures without him.
There is a twenty five point gap between these two sides in the table and just because
Newcastle need the points more than Villa do, does not justify a price of 7/5 about a home win.

Minimum price to take – 11/10

To visit The Oracles Site Click Here ==>   Football Betting Tips