Scottish Soccer Betting

Scottish Soccer Betting

At this time of year many of the games get disrupted in Scotland usually because of a frozen pitch and if not, then a waterlogged pitch. The standard of football in the lower leagues, Scottish Division’s 1,2 and 3, is very poor when compared to England. None of the teams have undersoil heating but a few do play on astroturf, 3rd and 4th generation pitches. This weekend, we’ll no doubt see some cancelled games because of the weather. It’s unfortunate, because when they get moved to midweek fixtures, the form is very unreliable. Most of the teams are part-time and can’t field their preferred first XI during the week due to work commitments of the players and you never know who can make it and who can’t; so betting in Scotland mid-week is best avoided. This weekend, I have 3 cracking bets but only one of them goes up on the free blog.

SD2 – Alloa WIN @ 4/5 (vs. Dumbarton) – 1 Star Bet (Bet365, Blue square, Stanjames, William Hill)

Analysis

Alloa vs. Dumbarton

Dumbarton did win away on Tuesday but as previously mentioned midweek form is unreliable and apart from that, their recent away form has been absolutely dire. Alloa play on a 3G pitch and tend to experience a home advantage because of it. They haven’t been firing recently, but there’s a lot to take from their narrow 1-0 loss at home to Ayr in their last home game. That showed signs of a revival and Ayr are a far superior side to Dumbarton. As the odds suggest, this should be a comfortable win for Alloa and 4/5 still represents good value.

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This is an excerpt from this weekend’s scottish soccer message from Tammboy over at the Football Bets site.

Tammboy is an ex odds compiler for a major uk bookmaker and forms part of the team of soccer betting experts over at Football Bets

Saturday Football Tips

Saturday Football Tips From Football Bets

1pt Aston Villa to beat Newcastle in the Premiership, 7/5 Bet365, Coral  (Sunday 24th May 4pm ko)

If Newcastle do not take at least a point away from Villa Park on Sunday, they will be relegated.
It is a game they cannot afford to lose.
However, as is so often the case at this time of year, the prices have moved far too much and
do not accurately reflect the true chances of each outcome.
Consequently, there is value to be had in backing the home team.

Villa’s form in the second half of the season has been terrible.
They were six points ahead of Arsenal in fourth place back in March but now lie ten
points behind them in sixth. They have also won just one of their last five matches. However,
Aston Villa still have more than enough quality to beat a very poor Newcastle side.
Had this game been played six weeks ago then Villa would be long odds on and 7/5 about a
home win is a very big price. Although Villa have little to play for, they will still want to win their
final home game and can still finish fifth above Everton, which would represent progress on last season.

Newcastle have won just twice on the road all season and have scored just two goals in their last five away games.
They have wasted chances to pull clear of the drop zone at home to Portsmouth and Fulham recently
and this is a far harder task. Newcastle’s record against top half opposition has also been dreadful this season.
In nineteen fixtures they have won just twice and both of those were home games.

The Geordies are missing several important players for this fixture too.
The absence of full backs Beye and Enrique will be especially difficult to deal with as
they have no natural replacements. Beye in particular has been an important player for
Newcastle and they have won just one of twenty four fixtures without him.
There is a twenty five point gap between these two sides in the table and just because
Newcastle need the points more than Villa do, does not justify a price of 7/5 about a home win.

Minimum price to take – 11/10

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Football Betting Tip

Saturday Football Betting Tip from The Oracle at Football Bets

1pt Lincoln to beat Grimsby in League two, 6/4 B365, Skybet and Tote (Saturday 7th March 3pm ko)

Lincoln’s 3-0 victory away at Dagenham in mid week was their seventh away win of the season, only leaders Brentford have a better record on the road. They have lost just once in nine matches and can still make the play offs if they continue their impressive form. Boss Peter Jackson today added Crewe’s Northern Ireland international midfielder Michael O’Connor to his squad after he joined on a month’s loan. O’Connor is a promising young player who has played over thirty games for Crewe in league one this season. He has scored five goals from midfield including one at Anfield in the Carling cup. Not many people imagined he would stay at Crewe for long, but few would have imagined his next club would be in league two, as he was tipped to play at a higher level. The reason for his loan to Lincoln was a breach of club discipline at Crewe which caused him to fall out of favour with his Icelandic manager. He is a fantastic acquisition for any club at this level as long as they can keep him out of trouble off the field.

O’Connor will go straight into tomorrow’s squad and will improve what was an already decent side. He will recognise former team mate Anthony Elding who is also on loan from Crewe until the end of the season, and Elding has a very good scoring record at this level. Lincoln also have plenty of experience in the side as Frank Sinclair and Geoff Horsfield have both played in the Premiership. Talented winger Danny N’Guessan has been attracting a host of scouts to watch him play and there were apparently seventeen at Lincoln’s last home game. With the current squad, I do not think that the play offs are beyond Lincoln.

Grimsby’s defeat to Brentford on Tuesday was their fifth in a row and resulted in the Mariners dropping into the relegation places. It has been an awful season for Grimsby who have won just four of thirty four games and lost nineteen. Scoring goals has been a big problem and they are averaging less than a goal a game. They have scored the fewest goals in league two and their top scorer has just five. They go into tomorrow’s game against Lincoln missing two important midfield players in Chris Llewellyn who is suspended, and more importantly, Dean Sinclair, who has returned to Charlton with an injury. The signing of Sinclair on loan from the Championship was a real coup for Grimsby and his departure is a big blow.     Lincoln are the form side who will have confidence in their ability to win again on the road. They have better players and a good manager. They also have much more of a goal threat than Grimsby and should be able to outscore their local rivals.
Minimum price to take – 6/5
The Oracle
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This football tip comes courtesy of the Oracle

1pt Fulham to beat Tottenham in the Premiership, 12/5 PaddyPower or 23/10 Bet365 (Saturday 15th November 3pm ko)

It is very important not to get too carried away with short term trends when betting on football, and to keep focused on the bigger picture. Juande Ramos was sacked as Tottenham manager after a terrible start to the season left Spurs bottom of the Premiership. He brought in a number of expensive signings over the summer and Spurs were expected to mount a challenge to the big four. However, the loss of Robbie Keane and Dimitar Berbatov late in the summer was a big blow and was a major factor in Spurs poor start in my opinion. Since Harry Redknapp has taken over, Spurs have suddenly come to life and are unbeaten in six games under their new manager. However, just as Tottenham were not as poor as their form suggested under Ramos, they are also not as good as the form they are currently experiencing under Redknapp. The media has gone overboard as a result of this good run and a number of bookmakers appear to have swallowed it.

The fact of the matter is that Redknapp has had a huge amount of luck so far in his short career as Tottenham boss. He started off with a home game against a very poor Bolton side and unsurprisingly picked up three points. This was followed by a trip to the Emirates stadium for the North London derby with Arsenal. Spurs nicked two late goals and gained a point they did not deserve. This was down to Arsenal carelessly throwing away the lead with sloppy play, rather than Harry masterminding some great comeback. Next up was Liverpool, who in Redknapp’s own words “murdered us”! The Scousers should have been 4-0 up before an own goal levelled things up and again Tottenham nicked a late goal to win it. Spurs didn’t deserve a point that day, let alone three. Last weekend saw more of the same, as Spurs trailed Man City before two sendings off allowed them to steal the points. Another win followed in mid week and from the praise being lavished on Redknapp once again by the media, you’d have sworn it wasn’t a Liverpool reserve team containing ten changes they’d just beaten?

So now we have a situation where Tottenham have been priced up as short as 11/10 (48% win chance) to win away from home against a Fulham side with a home record on a par with the big four. The cottagers have lost just one of their six home games, have won four times in front of their own fans already and only Chelsea have conceded fewer goals at home. Like previous seasons, it is their away form which is letting Fulham down with just a single point gained on their travels. Tottenham’s price looks even more ridiculous when you look at their own away form, not just this season but over the last several seasons. Their fortuitous victory over Man City was just their first away win of the season and last year they won just three times away from home. The season before that, they managed five away wins and the season before that they managed six. In fact, over the last three season Tottenham have won just 23% of their away fixtures, which equates to an average price of 10/3! Another factor here is that Tottenham have not won at Craven Cottage since 2002! Their record in that time reads W0-D2-L4.

Whilst their form at the moment is impressive, it is also very misleading and Redknapp joked during this week that he should resign now as things could only go down hill from now on. I think he was spot on, things can only go down hill, and Redknapp is still talking about avoiding relegation, rather than challenging for European places. Tottenham have been leaking goals by the hatful all season, the only thing Redknapp has done, is to get them scoring themselves. The defence changes every week as Ledley King’s injury only allows him to play every other week. This has caused a lot of uncertainty in a back four that already has suspect full backs defensively and which sits in front of one of the most unreliable goalkeepers in the Premiership. It is no secret that come January, Spurs will be signing a new keeper to replace Gomes and Shay Given was being linked with a move this afternoon. Gomes is a complete liability at set pieces and with crosses in general. He is just as likely to clatter one of his own defenders as he is to clear any danger.

If this game was played a month ago, Fulham would probably have been favourites. The prices on offer are being dictated by a short term trend and anything over 15/8 is fantastic value in my opinion. Fulham have already beaten Arsenal at home this season and in Danny Murphy, Simon Davies and Bobby Zamora, they have three Spurs old boys who will be fired up to put one over their previous employers. Andy Johnson is returning to full fitness and has three goals in as many games too. Fulham have to be backed to make it three home wins on the bounce.

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