The Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup is too difficult to consider for a strong bet.

I am putting up my thoughts today on it however not because
it is the strongest advice I have for full members today
but beacuse it is the race a few of you have asked about.

I have shortlisted six and it was Alben Star at 20/1 that did best on my angles.

For live market odds on this race see here ==> Live Odds

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 19 renewals of this race since 1993

* I think the following statistics are worth following

* Horses from 5f races struggled and should be opposed
* None of todays 5f horses have good profiles so these are out
* BOASTFUL – CHEVIOT -BORDERLESCOTT

* Horses aged 8 or more have yet to win in decades
* JOHANNES – REGAL PARADE fail that

* Horses aged 6 or more won just 3 renewals since the 1980′s
* None were absent as long as WAFFLE or CAPTAIN RAMIUS

* Horses aged 6 that won all ran within 17 days since the 1980′s
* THE CHEKA – BRAE HILL fail that

* BEACON LODGE is underraced for a 7yo

* MISS WORK OF ART is underraced for a 3yo filly

* No exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* RODRIGO DE TORRES fails that

* Avoid horses aged 5 or more absent 7 weeks or more
* MIRZA – TARIQ TOO fails that

* Horses winning last time absent a month are wrong
* PINTURA has that to overcome that

* MORACHE MUSIC – Shaky and unsafe absent 70 days
* Found a 4yo like him with a stone less weight
* That winner didnt come from a Group race like him

* DOC HAY is 5 and won last time out
* MAAREK  is 5 and won last time out
* Horses aged 5 doing that were 0-22
* Both are hard to match in all similar races too
* DOC HAY has a career high mark to overcome as well
* MAAREK has ran just once in 73 days
* He has to do that carrying a massive weight as well

* HAWKEYETHENOO comes from a Group 1 race
* The 2007 winner did that but he was an un exposed 4yo
* HAWKEYETHENOO is exposed and 6 years old
* No other horses won similar races from Group races
* HAWKEYETHENOO also has a career high mark
* He’s raced just once in 49 days as well and Stall 3 isnt ideal

* SHOLAAN – Difficult task as a 3yo absent 84 days
* He has 4 runs this year and no 3yo won this race like him
* I can find  a 3yo winning absent 78 days
* That was 2007 Silver Cup winner Utmost Respect
* He was lighter raced though and won Group 2 races
* SHOLAAN – Not quite right for me
* Also have to consider stall 2 as low numbers are unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* PEARL ICE is a lightly raced 4yo absent 84 days
* Two Ayr Gold Cup winners were not unlike him
* They had 7 week absences in 1996 and 2001
* PEARL ICE does have 12 weeks though
* Hard to know whether 84 days is too long or not

* OUR JONATHAN won this last year from the same stall
* He has the same absence and comes from the same trial race
* The 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo absent 28 days
* OUR JONATHAN only has a week more off the track
* I think he has enough to shortlist
* He does have far fewer runs this year
* There are more doubts about his current form as well

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 5yo absent a month
* I would have much prefered a run within a month
* I could overlook 35 days but exposed 5yo’s rarely win this
* That said the 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo
* He was absent 28 days only a week more so he’s in
* COLONEL MAK has a career high mark though

* SHROPSHIRE is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* I like that profile as he has a recent run
* I found a couple of similar winners in other races
* I just wish he had more than 1 run in 49 days

* LOUIS THE PIOUS is an unexposed 4yo
* He has a months break and Class 2 form
* I can live with that profile
* The 2007 Silver Cup winner was like him

* ALBEN STAR is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* ALBEN STAR hasnt raced in a Month either
* Thats a fine profile as the 1996 and 2001 winners shared it
* He’s been Running well in big handicaps all year
* ALBEN STAR looks the best profile to me

Selection

ALBEN STAR 20/1

Each Way at 20/1 paying 1/4 for 5 places at Bet365
Same available at Sky and Stan James but Bet365 will give you best odds guaranteed
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This was provided by Guy from Mathematician Betting

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tipster

 

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