York Horse Racing Tip

A free horse racing tip for York from Guy over at the Mathematician Betting website.

 

York  4.55

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-81 rated horses
* FORK HANDLES – Very weak profile coming from 10f
* I’d also argue she might not stay this far
* MASHAARI – Looks the wrong kind of 3yo
* No 3yo won with under 7 runs and he has 4
* No 3yo won absent 7 weeks or more and he’s off 80 days
* Coming from a 12f maiden I wasnt keen
* BECAUSEWECAN – No exposed horse came from 13f or less
* He hasnt been running well enough to ignore that
* GENEROUS DREAM is a 4yo filly with just 7 runs
* Without more backclass I wasnt sold on her chances
* All similar 4yo fillies had at least 13 runs
* TINY TEMPER is woefully underraced from a filly
* Especially coming from 13f and she looks all wrong
* VALID REASON looks underraced this season
* HAWRIDGE STAR has fitness issues
* Not keen he is 10 with 36 days off
* HAWRIDGE STAR only has 1 run since July
* FRENCH HOLLOW – Finished 3rd in this race last year
* I tipped him each way but knew there was a stamina doubt
* His sire still hasnt had a winner over this far
* The stamina doubt remains especially in this ground
* This year his profile is not as good
* I couldnt rule him out though
* CAPE TRIBULATION is 8 absent 125 days
* Thats a massive absence for an 8yo
* Looked at all handicaps for similar types
* Leslingtaylor did it (2010) over 10f
* European Dream (2011) did it over 9f
* None aged 8 or more have over this far yet
* RIVER DRAGON won easily over hurdles last time
* I made him my best bet that day
* I dont have a problem with his profile

Selection

Each Way RIVER DRAGON 5/1 Victor Chandler

 

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Betting Advice

 

 

 

Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup is too difficult to consider for a strong bet.

I am putting up my thoughts today on it however not because
it is the strongest advice I have for full members today
but beacuse it is the race a few of you have asked about.

I have shortlisted six and it was Alben Star at 20/1 that did best on my angles.

For live market odds on this race see here ==> Live Odds

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 19 renewals of this race since 1993

* I think the following statistics are worth following

* Horses from 5f races struggled and should be opposed
* None of todays 5f horses have good profiles so these are out
* BOASTFUL – CHEVIOT -BORDERLESCOTT

* Horses aged 8 or more have yet to win in decades
* JOHANNES – REGAL PARADE fail that

* Horses aged 6 or more won just 3 renewals since the 1980′s
* None were absent as long as WAFFLE or CAPTAIN RAMIUS

* Horses aged 6 that won all ran within 17 days since the 1980′s
* THE CHEKA – BRAE HILL fail that

* BEACON LODGE is underraced for a 7yo

* MISS WORK OF ART is underraced for a 3yo filly

* No exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* RODRIGO DE TORRES fails that

* Avoid horses aged 5 or more absent 7 weeks or more
* MIRZA – TARIQ TOO fails that

* Horses winning last time absent a month are wrong
* PINTURA has that to overcome that

* MORACHE MUSIC – Shaky and unsafe absent 70 days
* Found a 4yo like him with a stone less weight
* That winner didnt come from a Group race like him

* DOC HAY is 5 and won last time out
* MAAREK  is 5 and won last time out
* Horses aged 5 doing that were 0-22
* Both are hard to match in all similar races too
* DOC HAY has a career high mark to overcome as well
* MAAREK has ran just once in 73 days
* He has to do that carrying a massive weight as well

* HAWKEYETHENOO comes from a Group 1 race
* The 2007 winner did that but he was an un exposed 4yo
* HAWKEYETHENOO is exposed and 6 years old
* No other horses won similar races from Group races
* HAWKEYETHENOO also has a career high mark
* He’s raced just once in 49 days as well and Stall 3 isnt ideal

* SHOLAAN – Difficult task as a 3yo absent 84 days
* He has 4 runs this year and no 3yo won this race like him
* I can find  a 3yo winning absent 78 days
* That was 2007 Silver Cup winner Utmost Respect
* He was lighter raced though and won Group 2 races
* SHOLAAN – Not quite right for me
* Also have to consider stall 2 as low numbers are unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* PEARL ICE is a lightly raced 4yo absent 84 days
* Two Ayr Gold Cup winners were not unlike him
* They had 7 week absences in 1996 and 2001
* PEARL ICE does have 12 weeks though
* Hard to know whether 84 days is too long or not

* OUR JONATHAN won this last year from the same stall
* He has the same absence and comes from the same trial race
* The 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo absent 28 days
* OUR JONATHAN only has a week more off the track
* I think he has enough to shortlist
* He does have far fewer runs this year
* There are more doubts about his current form as well

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 5yo absent a month
* I would have much prefered a run within a month
* I could overlook 35 days but exposed 5yo’s rarely win this
* That said the 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo
* He was absent 28 days only a week more so he’s in
* COLONEL MAK has a career high mark though

* SHROPSHIRE is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* I like that profile as he has a recent run
* I found a couple of similar winners in other races
* I just wish he had more than 1 run in 49 days

* LOUIS THE PIOUS is an unexposed 4yo
* He has a months break and Class 2 form
* I can live with that profile
* The 2007 Silver Cup winner was like him

* ALBEN STAR is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* ALBEN STAR hasnt raced in a Month either
* Thats a fine profile as the 1996 and 2001 winners shared it
* He’s been Running well in big handicaps all year
* ALBEN STAR looks the best profile to me

Selection

ALBEN STAR 20/1

Each Way at 20/1 paying 1/4 for 5 places at Bet365
Same available at sky and stan james but Bet365 will give you best odds guaranteed
==================================

This was provided by Guy from Mathematician Betting

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tipster

 

Sandown Free Horse Racing Tip

Our regular Saturday free horse racing tip from Guy at the Mathematician site.

===========================================

I do have a firm bet for full members today which runs in the 5.20 at Beverly

Member access in immediate if you join up at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

If the above is my gold bet for today on the free blog here I am providing my next best.

Sandown   2.00

For Latest Live Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-07-07/sandown-park/14-05/betting/

* This is a Group 3 over 5f for all aged horses
* Horss that came from handicaps underperformed
* Very few won and those that did were certain types
* ELUSIVITY isnt safe aged 4 from a handicap
* I also think he has the worst of the draw
* HUMIDOR comes from a handicap
* Not keen on him as an older horse absent 135 days
* MEDICEAN MAN comes from a 6f handicap
* No winners did that aged 6 or more
* No winners did that when exposed either
* TRIPLE ASPECT fails the same angles
* CALEDONIA LADY is a 3yo filly
* The 3 winning fillies aged 3 of similar races had 4 4 7 runs
* CALEDONIA LADY has 17 and may be too exposed
* DUCHESS DORA is an exposed mare from 5f
* The only similar winners had far more runs that season
* NIGHT CARNATION won this last year asa 3yo filly
* Now as a 4yo filly we have two winners like her
* Both however dropped from 6f races
* NIGHT CARNATION doesnt and isnt an exact match
* DINKUM DIAMOND looks underraced this year
* He looks short of class for a race like this
* CONFESSIONAL lost by 34 lengths just 7 days ago
* I cant find a winner overcoming such a defeat so recently
* ELNAWIN comes from 6f with 2 runs that season
* Both winners doing that were younger than him
* They both had under 13 runs as well
* ELNAWIN has 20 runs and may need another this season
* Or another race but Richard Hughes is bullish about him
* FREE ZONE is a 3yo with 13 runs
* He has never raced in Group Class before
* I looked at all 3 year olds without any Group form
* There were 3 winners aged 3 like that
* Those that had under 7 runs were 3-16
* Those that had 7 + runs were 0-20
* They were all lightly raced with 4-5-6 runs
* FREE ZONE has 13 and doesnt fit that well
* I’m saying after 13 runs he should have Group class form

S h o r t l i s t

* JUDGE 4N JURY is an 8yo
* None have won this race as old as he is
* I found 2 similar races won by 8yo’s elsewhere
* Because of that I cant rule him out
* I’d rather have seen an 8yo win this race though
* His recent run is a strong help
* So to is excellent track form as well

* SPIRIT QUARTZ is hard to read
* 9 of his 15 career starts were in Italy
* I have no problem with his general profile though
* He has shown the required Class
* SPIRIT QUARTZ is a big runner

Selection

JUDGE 4N JURY 7/1 Win Bet  BoyleSports – blue square – stan james
SPIRIT QUARTZ 5/1 Saver Bet   William Hill – stan james – BetfredBet365

( saver bet just a bet staked to win back stake on main bet if saver wins )

.

Racing Tip At Ripon

The problem today is serious rain is coming and
said to be hitting everywhere. I have to produce
the message knowing that the ground will change
everywhere. There is no way of knowing just how
much rain there will be or when it will fall so this
is going to be the single biggest issue of the day.

It will mean lots more non runners later on top
of several already pulled out. Plenty of opinions
in lots of races today. Done what I can despite a
lack of knowledge about what will run. Its one of
those messages to slowly navigate through. Dont
be afraid to overrule some selections if evidence
later shows that to be sensible. The weather does
not make it safe or sensible to go with a strong
stake today.

Perhaps unpredictable as a race but the 4.30pm at
Ripon interested me. I wasnt convinced about the
favourite and I felt the bet was BLUE DEER as
an improver from a stronger stable with entries
all over the place and bred to appreviate softer
ground. I felt he was worth a bet around 11/2.

R i p o n  4.30

5/2 Arrivaderci, 6/1 Blue Deer, 17/2 Song Of Parkes
9/1 Decadence, 9/1 Eeny Mac, 10/1 Lady Platinum Club
12/1 Cottam Stella, 12/1 Gambatte, 12/1 Grazeon Again
12/1 Spinatrix, 14/1 Roman Ruler, 16/1 Bahamian Jazz
25/1 Ivy And Gold.

This is a Maiden Handicap over 6f. This race has 18
renewals and being a “Maiden” handicap its best seen
in isolation from other races. I didnt like the look of
favourite ARRIVADERCI as a 3yo filly coming from
a 5f race when inexperienced and having so few races
this season and I would look elsewhere. For the same
reasons I would also oppose COTTAM STELLA too.
No past winners of this dropped from a Mile or more
so SONG OF PARKES from 8f and DECADENCE as
a horse from a 10f race look vulnerable. These would
be my main negatives in an open looking races. I feel
LADY PLATINUM CLUB and EENY MAC have to
be seriously considered. So to does BLUE DEER who
comes from a good stable and a horse entered all over
the place this week.  EENY MAC who looks likely to
appreciate the drop in class and track and I was very
tempted by him but an inexperienced winnerless pilot
puts me off him. BLUE DEER looks the one to me.

Selection – BLUE DEER 6/1 bet 365
If that goes or 365 have limited you to penny stakes as they tend to do..
11/2 available at Coral Ladbrokes William Hill sky

Live prices at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-07-16/ripon/16-30/betting/

==============================

This was provided by Guy Ward of Horse Betting Blog

Great St Wilfrid Tip

The following is from Guy over at the mathematician site.

To visit his site click here  == > horse betting

The Saturday before the big festival at York and that means
Great St Wilfrid day at Ripon.
This year it will be run on soft ground like most of the races today.

I have tried to sort out the Great St Wilfrid a fascinating race today.
It’s a  tough sprint so wont be easy  to get right but as the major race today
I know many of you want an opinion on it.

RIPON 3.30

William Hill Great St Wilfrid (Heritage Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

3/1 Tajneed,  8/1 Rileyskeepingfaith 8/1 Tiddliwinks
12/1 Favourite Girl 12/1 Hitchens, 14/1 Midnight Martini
14/1 Signor Peltro  16/1 Advanced, 16/1 Johannes
16/1 Knot In Wood 16/1 Lowdown, 16/1 Pavershooz
16/1 Quest For Success 20/1 Damika, 20/1 Fullandby
25/1 Novellen Lad 40/1 Everymanforhimself.

* The Great St Wilfred is a 0-105 handicap over 6f
* Ripon has had 18 renewals of this race
* There are 57 similar Class 2 handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time were 0-67
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more are interesting
* I looked at 57 similar handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 6 + lengths had a poor 4-365 record
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year doing that were 0-111
* JOHANNES – KNOT IN WOOD fail that
* HITCHENS -NOVELLEN LAD  also fail that
* Those beaten that far over 7f or more last time were 0-61
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more aged 3 are 0-37
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Unexposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are 1-119
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Horses from 5f races has a 3-74 record
* None managed without a very recent run
* Horses from 5f without a run in 2 weeks were 0-28
* FAVOURITE GIRL fails that
* No filly came from a 5f like her anyway
* In 56 other races fillies from 5f races were 0-31
* PAVERSHOOZ also fails that
* In 56 other races horses from 5f needed a recent run
* Those absent more than 2 weeks were 2-109
* Those with 13 or more runs were 0-92
* PAVERSHOOZ fails that
* Exposed horses won 9 of the 18 renewals
* Those exposed and aged 5 were 0-76
* PAVERSHOOZ -NOVELLEN LAD fail that
* HITCHENS is also an exposed 5yo (0-76)
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS is an exposed 5yo
* I see him having the worst draw as well
* Those exposed and carrying 8st 11lbs or less were 1-125
* FULLANDBY -NOVELLEN LAD -  PAVERSHOOZ fail that
* Exposed horses aged 8 or more won 1 renewal
* That horse had past Group form and 9 + runs this season
* He also ran within 7 days
* FULLANDBY looks underaced for an 8yo
* KNOT IN WOOD looks underaced for an 8yo
* I looked at 56 similar handicaps
* Exposed horses aged 8 were 3-101
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 0-65
* That reinforces negatives for FULLANDBY – KNOT IN WOOD
* Exposed horses from 6f handicaps were 5-153 in this race
* None of these were aged 4 (0-25) or 5 (0-46)
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH fails that aged 4
* No past winner came from an 8f race
* None did it in any of the 56 other races
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* 3 year olds won 2 races but none were Male
* 3yo Males are 0-28 in this race
* LOWDOWN fails that
* I looked at 3yo males in 56 other races
* They had a 1-93 record
* Those 3yo Males with 9 + runs were 0-64
* LOWDOWN looks opposable on that front
* 3 year olds with under 13 runs were 0-25 in this race
* MIDNIGHT MARTINI fails that
* In 56 other races 3yo fillies with under 13 runs were 1-17
* That winner was slightly different coming from a 3yo handicap
* I wouldnt entirely rule her out though
* Horses aged 7 or more had a 3-73 record
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 0-33
* I looked at 56 similar races for 7 year olds
* Horses aged 7 and older were 7-213
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 2-196
* None had 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* JOHANNES fails that and has just 4 runs
* ADVANCED  fails that and has just 4 runs
* TAJNEED  fails that and has just 4 runs

SHORTLIST

* MIDNIGHT MARTINI is just shortlistable
* DAMIKA is 7 years old but shortlistable
* He has a recent run and is fit enough with backclass
* TIDDLIWINKS is an unexposed 4 year olds
* 4 year olds with 13-20 runs and a run in 2 weeks did well
* Those beaten under 3 lengths were 3-8
* Those from 6f handicaps are 2-6
* These 3 horses all have that profile
* TIDDLIWINKS has that profile

THE DRAW

* Since 2006 Ripon has 23 of these races with 13 + runners
* The recent winners came from these stalls
* 6 13 15 10 15 11 11 14 11 10 5 11 12 22 15 4 3 12 6 15
* Horses draw 1-2 had a 0-46 record
* Horses drawn 16 or more had a 1-55 record
* That clearly shows a middle draw is best

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

DAMIKA 20/1 looks overpriced and underestimated
( now best priced 18/1 canbet VC Bet365 )

TIDDLIWINKS 10/1  Bet365 Ladbrokes skybet

For best current odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-14/ripon/15-30/betting/

I think Tiddliwinks  has the outstanding profile. He made massive
improvement on the sand a year ago which has left him
well handicapped on Grass. He hasnt won yet on turf but
I dont see that as important as his last 2 runs show there
is serious ability on Grass. His last 3 runs were interesting.
He wont have been fit at York in July.
He did nothing at all wrong at York in the Skybet Dash when 4th
when he still might have needed the run.
Last time at Goodwood he had a horrible draw and still managed a creditable 4th.
The ground is an issue as he is not proven on soft ground but he has not
shown he doesnt handle it.
His Dam won on soft and placed on Heavy.
His father won on softer ground and has bred many that have done as well.
I’d risk it as I dont see a better profile in this race.

Racign Tip For Kempton

KEMPTON 4.35

Don Wetherell Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (2yo) 6f

This is a 2yo Claiming race. We have 56 of these
races at this time of year. I would look for an each
way bet against the market leaders. Both these are
Fillies coming from 5f races. In 56 races fillies from
5f races were 4-104. None of these had a very recent
run something WANCHAI WHISPER has to overcome
and no filly came from a 5f selling race something that
CHOCOLATE COOKIE has to overcome. There may
be a better alternative. WANNABEE looks outclassed.
BOBBY´S DOLL is too inexperienced. I would not be
with ISHE A LORD whose also far too inexperienced
and horses like him from sellers were 0-38 without at
least 4 career starts. ANNIA has a weak profile and
didnt do enough last time. If you look at horses who
come from 8f races you find that males doing this had
a 0-27 record and those with under 9 previous races
were 0-38 something ARKEN LAD has to overcome.

SELECTION

LITTLE PERISHER has the strongest profile
with backclass a recent run and plenty of runs.
There may be temprement issues but name me
a 2yo claimer that doesnt have that and I felt
he ran better than it looked in a much better
race at Windsor last time. He should win this.

9/2 at PaddyPower

Guy Ward

For More info on Guy’s Service Click Here Racing Tips

Racing Tip for Catterick

No firm bets today but if you want a bit of interest consider …

CATTERICK 1.40

Bet On Today´s Football At Totesport.com
Apprentice Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m3f214y

5/2 Drum Dragon, 7/2 Lost Soldier Three, 4/1 Boundless Prospect, 8/1 Bajan Parkes, 10/1 Moggy, 16/1 Bigalo´s Star, 25/1 Another Decree, 25/1 Dream In Blue, 33/1 Aven Mac,  33/1 Boy Dancer, 33/1 Cecina Marina, Grethel,

SELECTION

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 + (  11/1 skybet and sportingbet )
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

This is a Claimer over just short of 12f for Apprentice
riders. Catterick has 12 renewals of this race and there
are 53 similar races for all jockeys. You want at least 5
runs this season. I see BIGALO´S STAR as underraced
this year.  Horses absent over 7 weeks have struggled.
They were 1-51 in this race. In the 53 similar races all
horses absent 7 weeks or more were 1-118 since 1998
so DREAM IN BLUE and BOY DANCER have to go.

Horses from Maidens like AVEN MAC are poor. I do
not want CECINA MARINA a filly with a 0-22 career
record. She is an exposed mare and these types have a
poor 1-39 record something GRETHEL also fails. I’d
be against ANOTHER DECREE as a male horse thats
up in distance 3 furlongs. Horses that came up from 10f
races without a run within 2 weeks had a 3-150 record.
Thats poor and BOUNDLESS PROSPECT’s got that
against him and its asking a lot for a 10 year old to win
coming from 10f. He has only run once  since March
and thats not a lot for a 10 year old. I see him failing
this test. DRUM DRAGON is a 3yo filly coming from
a 3yo handicap and in all 53 similar races these types
were 0-17. That has to be a worry. I dont want to trust
BAJAN PARKES after being beaten 53 lengths only 7
days ago. If you look at horses that lost by 10 or more
lengths in the last fortnight you find a horrible record
and those like BAJAN PARKES that came from 14f or
shorter were 1-115. It was only non stayers at 2 miles
that got well beaten dropping in trip that overcame it
and with a 1-115 record BAJAN PARKES doesnt look
like a horse I could bet. Its quite interesting that it only a quarter of a length stops LOST SOLDIER THREE
from failing the same statistic. He ran in the same race
as BAJAN PARKES and despite not beaten 10 + lengths
he was beaten 9.75 lengths and there has to be a doubt
about whether he did enough and he does look quite a
regressive 8 year old.

SELECTION

I quite like MOGGY the 3 year old filly. There has been
2 recent 3yo fillies winning this race. I would have been
happier with a very recent run but MOGGY is as good as
anything on her profile. She will probably try and make
the runningand steal the race from the front. There is a
stamina doubt here so she may be vulnerable later on. I
see her as a Win bet at 12/1 and lay her back in running
about 3/1 as she will probably have Lost Soldier Three
and Drum Dragon trying to mow her down. I would much
rather bet him big and lay her in running than any other
way and I dont think its impossible she can win this. In
all similar races 3yo fillies coming from 10f sellers had
a 2-7 record and that included the 2006 winner of this.

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 +
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

Guy Ward ( The Mathematician )

To visit Guy’s site click here ==>  Horse Racing Tips

Saturday Horse Racing Tip

Chester 2.25

BERTOLIVER 5/1 William Hill

For best live odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2009-08-22/chester/14-25/betting/

Win Bet

Just one selection on BERTOLIVER at Chester. Feels like a
subdued Saturday with less Racing and some smaller fields and in an attempt to find my best bet at decent odds there were not many options and only one horse that came close to being a bet and that’s BERTOLIVER. There are issue at Chester over 5 furlongs like the start and how fast they go and there is also a false rail there today so plenty of factors in this race that we can not be sure about but I think I’ve made a good enough case for BERTOLIVER to be worth a bet around 5/1 and the race has plenty of negatives as well which should increase his chance.

CHESTER 2.25

TotePLACEPOT HANDICAP(CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-85) 5f16y

7/2 Glamorous Spirit, 9/2 Bertoliver, 6/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 7/1 Invincible Lad, 7/1 Tyfos, 10/1 Le Toreador, 12/1 Misaro, 14/1 Supermassive Muse, 16/1 Rasaman, 20/1 Total Impact, 33/1 Methaaly, 33/1 Sands Crooner, 33/1 Stolt.

This is a 5f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses. Chester has had 34 of these races in August and September and there has been 497 similar handicaps elsewhere. GLAMOROUS SPIRIT has to go as a 3yo filly from a 3yo handicap. In 497 races there were just three Fillies who managed to win with that profile. Of these 3 fillies none had a weight she has or were beaten as far as she was last time and none were as exposed as She is. GLAMOROUS SPIRIT has 15 runs. Look at 3yo fillies with 13 or more runs from 3yo handicaps and since 1993 you see a 0-57 record. The problem in this race is that every runner has a recent race and is well raced and the strength in depth is enormous. RASAMAN does not appeal as horses from 6f claimers were miserable. I suppose that as Chester has had 34 handicaps in the last 3 seasons at 5 furlongs and that stalls 11 or more were 0-56 we should throw out the high drawn horses so METHAALY is rejected as is SANDS CROONER – STOLT and TOTAL IMPACT as well. SUPERMASSIVE MUSE won this last year and was well beaten last year before this race just as he is this year. The difference for me now is he is exposed now and doesnt have the same preparation and I ran his profile through 497 races and no horse like him won. Exposed 4 year olds beaten 10 lengths or more last time like him were poor and those without at least nine runs that season were 0-76 so he isnt for me. I dont fancy TYRANNOSAURUS REX. When he won here in June it was a Career best. He has to better than today in a better class race from a higher handicap mark and I dont see him doing that from a stable that are really struggling and when he may have gone off the boil himself. MISARO needs close to a career best and he may pop up but he is getting on now as an 8 year old and his last win came against “seniors” aged 6 or more in a much lower class race and the percentage call is that he will probably find something faster. TYFOS has stall 1. Very complicated sort of profile as a 4 year old down in trip with an intermediate sort of absence.

Statistically he did enough to get on a shortlist but I wasnt impressed enough. I felt he wanted a more recent run and he lacks backclass and that worries me. After all every other horse in this race has ran in a higher grade before than TYFOS has and you can ignore that for lightly raced horses but he has 16 runs now. Thrown in the fact he was outpaced and beaten the only time he ran at Chester over this trip and he doesnt have any other runs at 5f and when you consider the Dam won over hurdles and in a Bumper you wonder where he will get the speed for a race over 5 furlongs. I am not sold on his chance

SHORTLIST

BERTOLIVER -LE TOREADOR  -INVINCIBLE LAD

LE TOREADOR has an excellent chance and excellent profile
and ran much better than it looked last time but his problem is probably Stall 8 and how much luck he gets from that. Take the last 17 handicaps here over 5f. In these 17 races 16 of the 17 to win were drawn lower than Stall 8. LE TOREADOR will have to have some luck to win. INVINCIBLE LAD ran really well last  time at Goodwood and if he repeats that he could well win. My only worries here are no form at Chester and a Career high mark. He has a habit of starting slowly and thet wont help him here and he is risky.

SELECTION

BERTOLIVER is well treated and he looks likely to burst out and try and make all. Whether he folds like he did last time at Newbury or not is another matter. It may have been a bit soft for him last time as he wants it fast and he does love it here so everything looks placed for a serious run from the front and he should trade low in running. He looks a win bet. Phillip Robinson is an eye catching booking and this looks his race.

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Saturday Racing at Newbury

N E W B U R Y

It’s not a pleasant card. Ground will be soft. I will start with the HACKWOOD Stakes at 2.20pm. Its a race where young horses have dominated. Horses aged 3 have won 22 of the last 31 races and that shows how well they have done. That could all change on soft ground. My own thoughts here were WAR ARTIST is a vulnerable horse despite top rated. I wouldnt trust James Eustace to get a 7 year old with a 372 day absence fit on soft ground and whilst he may well win I’d be looking for an each way bet against him. I would ignore the 5f trip jumpers like Madame Trop Vite,
Matsunosuke . FESTOSO isnt for me as a filly. Much will depend on the ground. Many of these are clearly much better on faster ground. PRIME DEFENDER looks a faster ground type. I didnt like EDGE CLOSER. I think there are Three interesting runners. HIGH YIELD comes via 6f handicaps and only two of the last 17 winners did that but one came from the Wokingham like he does and he has a good chance. ICELANDIC comes from a 5f race but that was yesterday and its just possible he has a fitness edge and I wouldnt rule him out much as his chance is imposible to judge and comes with plenty of risk.The strongest runner statistically for me is DONCASTER ROVER. He is a lightly raced 3yo thats just won the same Haydock Conditions race as similar types won before they won this in 2003 and 2005. I gave him a great chance but like you would not be sure he handles soft. DONCASTER ROVER looks a good price and can win if he handles soft.

I havent got a clue what to make of the Fillies Handicap at 2.50. First of all there has only been 1 Fillies Handicap in July in this Class so we have no similar races to draw stats from. Secondly I wouldnt have a clue how to rate COSMOPOLITAN who comes from a Group 1 race into a Handicap. All I can tell you is that I looked at every Fillies handicap in the last 20 years anywhere and
in any class and horses that dropped from Group 1 or Group 2 races were 0-23 and it hasnt happened yet. Personally I would oppose her. I would take out anything with 1 run this year as well. Bottom line is I dont have the angles.

NEWBURY 3.55

WEATHERBYS SUPER SPRINT(CLASS 2)(2yo) 5f34y

11/4 Monsieur Chevalier, 6/1 Above Limits, 6/1 Shamandar
16/1 Here Now And Why, 16/1 Palisades Park 16/1 Reach For
The Sky, 20/1 Archers Road, 20/1 Chocolate Cookie, 20/1 Red Avalanche, 20/1 Star Rover, 25/1 Desert Auction 25/1 Eternal Instinct, 33/1 Existentialist, 33/1 Reddy To Star 33/1 Social Grace, 40/1 Itsthursdayalready 50/1 Kirsty’s Boy, 50/1 Leleyf, 50/1 Strike Shot, 66/1 Blushing 100/1 French Connexion

The Super Sprint is now on its 17th year. On the one
hand you have some excellent stats in the race. On the
other hand you have an impossible looking race. What
I want to do this year is use the same angles that I used
last year as they shortlisted the winner as well as the
2nd and 4th much as I chose the wrong one ! I will use
the same format as last year and end with a shortlist.

* Newbury has had 17 renewals of the Super Sprint
* Horses at 25/1 and more are 1-178
* No past winner had 6 or more career starts
* You ideally want a horse thats ran in Class 3 or higher
* Horses that hadn’t done that with 3 + runs were 0-85
* Males that hadn’t done that  were 0-70
* Horses that hadn’t done that from 6f were 0-48
* Horses that hadnt done thatfrom novice races were 0-33
* Fillies are best and lead 12 wins to 5
* Males that had just under 3 runs were 0-38
* Males that came from 2yo maidens had a 0-58 record
* No past winner came from Nurseries
* Horses that had penalties didnrt score well but won last years
* Horses that came from maidens with 3 or more runs were 0-62
* Horses that came from conditions races in class 4 or lower were 0-64
* Horses that were 2nd or 3rd last time out struggled (1-97)
* Horses with 4 + runs that didnt come from a Group race were 0-129
* No horse was beaten over 10 lengths over 5f last time
* I have 2 horses on my shortlist
* MONSIEUR CHEVALIER – ABOVE LIMITS
* The ground and penalty worries me for MONSIEUR CHEVALIER
* I just prefer ABOVE LIMITS

I thought the handicap at 4.30 was too hard. I would have opposed all the exposed horses that were well beaten over 12f last time or that were aged 7 or more doing this and Capable Guest , Heron Bay and Cheshire Prince look weak because of that. I wouldnt want any horse with under 2 runs that year so Monreale and JASER are out. I didnt fancy Kevkat. I looked at exposed horses that lost by over
10 lengths last time. When having under 5 runs that year they had a 0-74 record and when running over 9f or less a 1-60 record so as FINAL VERSE fails both he is out as well. I would only shortlist 4 horses in Bugaku – King Charles -Safari Sunup -Dar Es Salaam and forced to pick the lightly raced Stoute improver BUGAKU appeals.

The Staying Handicap that ends Newburys card should go to one of the fancied runners. Horses with absences are poor in these 2m races. ABSOLUT POWER -WINGED D´ARGENT have been off too long. CALCULATING isnt good enough on grass. I like fillies that come from winning and the lighter raced the better so I am making ISABELONABICYCLE a positive. SWORDSMAN also  has to be one with a very recent run. I would concerntrate on these.
best wishes

Guy

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Betting Advice For Salisbury

I have a few what I deem stronger bets today but out of respect for clients who pay for my betting advice I must unfortunately refrain from putting them up here.

Still I have an interesting angle for at a race at Salisbury later with a couple of decent priced contenders.

SALISBURY 6.20

BATHWICK TYRES NOVICE AUCTION STAKES
(CLASS 5)(2yo) 6f

6/4 Raine’s Cross, 13/8 Dick Turpin, 8/1 Drift And Dream
12/1 Emma Dora, 12/1 Perfect Ch’I, 25/1 Pherousa
25/1 San Cassiano, 33/1 Fantastic Pick, 33/1 Weliketobouggie 66/1 Bush Master, 66/1 Chocolate Cookie.

This race is a 6f Novice Auction Contest. Salisbury has
12 renewals of this race. This is a race where Fillies have
dominated. They lead 9-3 in the 12 races and there has
been fewer Fillies run as well. They should really be 10-2
ahead as one year they had no chance of winning. I feel
a male horse can win but if they do you know they will
turn out to be pretty smart. Considering unraced horses
are 0-17 in this race lets take out the unraced males first
so SAN CASSIANO and WELIKETOBOUGGIE are out. I cant see a case for BUSH MASTER. No past winner dropped in trip and the male FANTASTIC PICK does not appeal. CHOCOLATE COOKIE doesnt appeal as a debutant and no filly was beaten more than 10 lengths last time so PHEROUSA has to go.

The issue is whether the 3 remaining fillies EMMA DORA – PERFECT CH’I
or DRIFT AND DREAM can beat the a male who has Group form in RAINE´S CROSS and a male that has won his only race in DICK TURPIN. Its much better to come from an Auction maiden so I will take out EMMA DORA. I respect the males but feel the Fillies are advantaged in a race like this. I plan to bet one and save on the other

SELECTION – DRIFT AND DREAM 10/1 Bet365 s james Betfred
SAVER – PERFECT CH’I 16/1 blue sq VC

best wishes
Guy

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