Paddy Power Gold Cup At Cheltenham

Paddy Power Cheltenham Gold Cup

This below was extracted from the free newsletter over at Guy Ward’s Mathematician Betting site.

It contains some useful insight into today’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

If you want to join that free newsletter youself you can do so here

==> Free Horse Racing Tips

=======================================================

#1 New Ante Post Section..what’s that all about then?

Well not long range ante post tips but I guess a self thinker

reader may self choose to make a self decided ante post bet

any time they want.

From Guy’s point of view it is more so about research

preparation work on upcoming major races.

Most of his focus on any given day will be on that day’s

normal racing. But if he can snatch a bit of free time

he will put it to good use with advance research for a major race.

The November Handicap stats I sent you last week were

extracted from this new Ante Post section.

This week I have for you his thoughts into Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup.

You can see from the dates below that full members have been getting it in

dribs and drabs from Tuesday Nov 3rd over time as Guy completes various

angles of research.

Note below how his positive and negative list

builds up over time. It’s probably worth saying that Guy himself

would not always totally blinker himself to only his positives.

A mild negative stat can be overlooked if market odds

are excessive and offer good value.

Saturday’s message will contain his final day of race opinion

once final runners, going day of race market odds etc are

more firmed up.

 


Tuesday 3rd

A n t e P o s t

New Column

Won’t be filling it up with long range bets

I want to start the countdown to the Paddy Power

Building a list of positives and negatives

Cheltenham Saturday 14th November

Paddy Power Gold Cup

8/1 Kings Palace 10/1 Monetaire, Boondooma

12/1 Cocktails At Dawn, Present View, 12/1 Irish Cavalier

12/1 Johns Spirit, 16/1 Oscar Rock, Thomas Crapper,

20/1 Buywise, Clarcam 20/1 Ptit Zig, Sound Investment

20/1 Splash of Ginge, 20/1 Taquin Du Seuil, 20/1 Annacotty

25/1 Art Mauresque – 33/1 Bar

KING’S PALACE – David Pipe

Current Race favourite

Breeding Stats Positive

He is a 7yo seasonal debutant

He has 4 Chase starts

Recent winners had the following chase runs

5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7

I’d have been happier with another Chase run

Gets extra points for Cheltenham Form

5 winners aged 7 were seasonal debutants

They were Males with 3 5 6 8 12 previous chase runs

The horse with 3 Chase runs won the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Again that extra chase run would have helped

Another issue to consider is the big field

How robust is he and how will he cope

Verdict – Positive Profile

MONETAIRE – David Pipe

Seasonal debutant aged 9 with 12 Chase starts

Cyfor Malta 2002 had the same profile

He was a past winner of this race though

He had achieved a lot more than Monetaire

His career best Racing Post Rating over fences is 146

If you look at the last 15 winners and their career best

Monetaire comes out as Joint 11th best of the 15

Not keen he is sired by a Flat sire

Not keen he started life on the flat

He scrapes through my breeding stats

But only 1 horse (The Last Derby) gets him there

I find his breeding profile unsatisfactory

Verdict – Unsatisfactory


Wed 4th

BOONDOOMA 10/1

Dr Richard Newland

BOONDOOMA has been out and won at Cheltenham

He has 4 Chase runs

Recent winners had 5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7 runs

Would have been safer if he had managed 5 chase runs

19 of the last 21 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form

BOONDOOMA only has Grade 3 form

That is another concern about his profile

There were 3 recent 8yo winners

They won from marks of 150 137 146

BOONDOOMA has to defy a higher mark of 154

That’s a worry when you consider no Grade 1-2 form

The 3 winners aged 8 had 8 10 7 previous Chase runs

BOONDOOMA only has 4

Look at the 7 winners that ran this season

They all ran within the past 17 days

Horses running this season absent 18+ days are 0-59

BOONDOOMA fails that albeit only just

Gets Positives for a Cheltenham win

Gets Positives for a Career best run last time

But he has to step up from a 2m 5f race

For me there are too many holes in his profile

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Current Negatives

Monetaire

Boondooma


Sunday 8th

Paddy Power Gold Cup

ANNACOTTY was gambled yesterday

Several firms cut him from 20/1 to 16/1-14/1

One very significant positive for me

Is he has upgraded stables this season

Martin Keighley to Alan King is a good upgrade

Most recent winners were lighter raced over fences

Go back a decade or so and some were like him

He does not fit the ideal range of 5-12 Chase starts

That said the 5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7

Had 3 5 6 8 12 previous chase runs

ANNACOTTY with 13 Chase runs is worth considering

He is a Grade 1 winner

He is a Grade 3 winner at Cheltenham

His Numbers certainly show enough class

Alan King has nominated the race as a target

I certainly wouldn’t rule him out

His last 2 seasonal debuts were defeats when favourite

That wouldn’t put me off to be honest

Has to be in the Positives

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire

Boondooma


Tuesday 10th

Looking at the 6 year olds now

IRISH CAVALIER

PTIT ZIG

LA VATICANE

There are only 3 potential runners this year aged 6

I don’t think a 6yo will win it this year

Only 5 winners aged 6 since 1994

Horses aged 6 have a 4-46 record since 1997

The 4 recent winners aged 6

Won from handicap marks of 139 139 136 138

PTIT ZIG has to defy a mark of 159

IRISH CAVALIER has to defy a mark of 156

There handicap marks are far higher than any 6yo winner

If you look at 6 year olds rated 140 or more

All 27 that raced were beaten

There was a 148 rated winner aged 6 in 1996

He had considerably less weight though

LA VATICANE has a lower rating

She is a seasonal debutant mare though

She is surely too inexperienced with just 2 starts

Only 1 recent winner had under 5 Chase starts

That ended up a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner

I just feel this years 6 year olds have too much on

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma

Irish Cavalier -Ptit Zig – La Vaticane


Wednesday 11th

Yesterday I showed how Saturday’s Badger Ales

Chase was dominated by lightly raced Chasers.

The last 9 winners of this race

Had the following chase runs before

5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5

None of the last 9 winners had 10 or more Chase runs

Horses that had 10 + Chase runs were 0-70

I think we need to take that hint

There are 28 horses left in this race

They have the following Chase runs

7 11 19 8 5 4 4 6 17 12 7 14 8 10

13 6 12 11 8 7 12 23 7 15 28 8 2 2

I think we must stay with horses with under 10 Chase runs

This leads to the following horses being rejected

DOUBLE ROSS 17 Chase runs

JOHNS SPIRIT 19 Chase runs

CROCO BAY 13 Chase runs

NEXT SENSATION 14 Chase runs

BENNYS MIST 23 Chase runs

TURN OVER SIVOLA 15 Chase runs

ASTRACAD 28 Chase runs

ANNACOTTY also has 13 Chase starts

I already have him on the positives list

I am now more inclined to put him on the negatives list

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma – Double Ross – Croco Bay

Irish Cavalier – Turn Over Sivola – La Vaticane – John’s Spirit

Next Sensation – Ptit Zig – Astracad – Bennys Mist

Annacotty is now on both lists


Thursday 12th

Yesterday I opposed horses with over 10 Chase runs

DARNA should have been in that list

I don’t want a 9yo debutant anyway

I don’t want a very poor recent run

PRESENT VIEW pulled up in the last 2 weeks

EASTER DAY pulled up in the last 2 weeks

SPLASH OF GINGE ran too badly too recently

LITTLE JON ran too badly too recently

GENEROUS RANSOM had a poor last run over hurdles

No past winner ran recently over hurdles

He also lacks backclass

Every past winner had form in a Graded race before

20 of the last 22 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form

GENEROUS RANSOM does not have that

CLOUD CREEPER lacks Graded form as well

THE CLOCK LEARY won’t run and is too inexperienced

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma – Double Ross – Croco Bay

Irish Cavalier – Turn Over Sivola – La Vaticane – John’s Spirit

Next Sensation – Ptit Zig – Astracad – Bennys Mist – Darna

Easter Day – Present View – Generous Ransom – Cloud Creeper

The horses we have yet to reject are below

KING’S PLACE – ANACOTTY – ART MAURESQUE

SOUND INVESTMENT – SHANPALLAS – BUYWISE

OSCAR ROCK – COCKTAILS AT DAWN


Friday 13th

The Final Declarations are in

There are 22 runners

No idea if this process we are doing will work

I want to tidy up our shortlist with 24hrs to go

SHANPALLAS is rejected

He has not looked like a Paddy Power winner recently

SOUND INVESTMENT is also rejected as well

He has 11 Chase runs more than the last 9 winners

He has Topweight as well

His ratings task is the same as Al Ferof in 2012

Thats a 7yo winning off 159

Al Ferof was a multiple Grade 1 winner

He had won a Supreme Novice hurdle as well

SOUND INVESTMENT is just a Grade 2 winner

He has never raced at Cheltenham before

Surely asking a lot to win off topweight

Without any experience on the track

ANACOTTY has been a positive and negative

I have to make a judgement call with him

I am taking him off the shortlist

13 Chase runs is a lot for a seasonal debutant

24hr Shortlist

OSCAR ROCK – I’d prefer a recent run + track form

COCKTAILS AT DAWN – Has positives + negatives

KING’S PLACE – Profile fine

ART MAURESQUE – We can no longer rule out 5yo’s

BUYWISE – Close enough to the past 8yo winners

Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup is too difficult to consider for a strong bet.

I am putting up my thoughts today on it however not because
it is the strongest advice I have for full members today
but beacuse it is the race a few of you have asked about.

I have shortlisted six and it was Alben Star at 20/1 that did best on my angles.

For live market odds on this race see here ==> Live Odds

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 19 renewals of this race since 1993

* I think the following statistics are worth following

* Horses from 5f races struggled and should be opposed
* None of todays 5f horses have good profiles so these are out
* BOASTFUL – CHEVIOT -BORDERLESCOTT

* Horses aged 8 or more have yet to win in decades
* JOHANNES – REGAL PARADE fail that

* Horses aged 6 or more won just 3 renewals since the 1980′s
* None were absent as long as WAFFLE or CAPTAIN RAMIUS

* Horses aged 6 that won all ran within 17 days since the 1980′s
* THE CHEKA – BRAE HILL fail that

* BEACON LODGE is underraced for a 7yo

* MISS WORK OF ART is underraced for a 3yo filly

* No exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* RODRIGO DE TORRES fails that

* Avoid horses aged 5 or more absent 7 weeks or more
* MIRZA – TARIQ TOO fails that

* Horses winning last time absent a month are wrong
* PINTURA has that to overcome that

* MORACHE MUSIC – Shaky and unsafe absent 70 days
* Found a 4yo like him with a stone less weight
* That winner didnt come from a Group race like him

* DOC HAY is 5 and won last time out
* MAAREK  is 5 and won last time out
* Horses aged 5 doing that were 0-22
* Both are hard to match in all similar races too
* DOC HAY has a career high mark to overcome as well
* MAAREK has ran just once in 73 days
* He has to do that carrying a massive weight as well

* HAWKEYETHENOO comes from a Group 1 race
* The 2007 winner did that but he was an un exposed 4yo
* HAWKEYETHENOO is exposed and 6 years old
* No other horses won similar races from Group races
* HAWKEYETHENOO also has a career high mark
* He’s raced just once in 49 days as well and Stall 3 isnt ideal

* SHOLAAN – Difficult task as a 3yo absent 84 days
* He has 4 runs this year and no 3yo won this race like him
* I can find  a 3yo winning absent 78 days
* That was 2007 Silver Cup winner Utmost Respect
* He was lighter raced though and won Group 2 races
* SHOLAAN – Not quite right for me
* Also have to consider stall 2 as low numbers are unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* PEARL ICE is a lightly raced 4yo absent 84 days
* Two Ayr Gold Cup winners were not unlike him
* They had 7 week absences in 1996 and 2001
* PEARL ICE does have 12 weeks though
* Hard to know whether 84 days is too long or not

* OUR JONATHAN won this last year from the same stall
* He has the same absence and comes from the same trial race
* The 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo absent 28 days
* OUR JONATHAN only has a week more off the track
* I think he has enough to shortlist
* He does have far fewer runs this year
* There are more doubts about his current form as well

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 5yo absent a month
* I would have much prefered a run within a month
* I could overlook 35 days but exposed 5yo’s rarely win this
* That said the 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo
* He was absent 28 days only a week more so he’s in
* COLONEL MAK has a career high mark though

* SHROPSHIRE is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* I like that profile as he has a recent run
* I found a couple of similar winners in other races
* I just wish he had more than 1 run in 49 days

* LOUIS THE PIOUS is an unexposed 4yo
* He has a months break and Class 2 form
* I can live with that profile
* The 2007 Silver Cup winner was like him

* ALBEN STAR is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* ALBEN STAR hasnt raced in a Month either
* Thats a fine profile as the 1996 and 2001 winners shared it
* He’s been Running well in big handicaps all year
* ALBEN STAR looks the best profile to me

Selection

ALBEN STAR 20/1

Each Way at 20/1 paying 1/4 for 5 places at Bet365
Same available at sky and stan james but Bet365 will give you best odds guaranteed
==================================

This was provided by Guy from Mathematician Betting

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tipster

 

Betting Guru

I got some great positive  feedback from Guy’s last tip for the Cheltenham Gold Cup

“brilliant race analysis”  &  “really took the race apart”  etc

I still like that tip as a good example of opposing the media hype which was all about Kauto versus Long Run.

If  you missed it have a look here Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Anyhow a shorter priced one today from him.

———————

L i n g f i e l d  4.00

9/4 Kingscroft, 11/4 George Guru, 6/1 Axiom
7/1 Dubai Dynamo, 10/1 Hung Parliament,Titan Triumph
14/1 Reve De Nuit, 16/1 Final Drive.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over a mile
* Not many similar races so hard to match horses
* HUNG PARLIAMENT – 4yo seasonal debutants struggle
* None had under 13 career starts as he does
* AXIOM – No seasonal debutants won aged 7 or older
* TITAN TRIUMPH won a 7f handicap last time
* No horse as old as him won again at a mile
* Coming up in class he has a lot to prove
* DUBAI DYNAMO doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* Not as a 7yo with just 1 run since last October
* REVE DE NUIT – Just falls short and looks badly handicapped
* FINAL DRIVE -Doesnt look well treated at the moment
* I think he may need another run this year
* KINGSCROFT is an exposed 4 year old
* Similar types from 8f handicaps were 0-4
* Career high mark and unsafe profile but respected
* GEORGE GURU – Unorthodox as lightly raced 5yo
* Acceptable profile and well raced this season
* He should have a fitness edge over most of these

Selection – GEORGE GURU

Prices are coming in a  touch since this was advised to full members earlier

13/8  available at PaddyPowerBoyleSports – s james – vc

Betting Advice For Ascot

Guy’s good run came unstuck last weekend.

He finally had a losing weekend after five winning weekend’s in a row for us here.

Read below his suggested betting advice for today.

———————————————————-

A s c o t   2.35

4/1 Smad Place, 5/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Ciceron
6/1 Shoreacres, 13/2 Joseph Lister, 7/1 Royal Charm
12/1 Pateese, 16/1 Orzare, 16/1 Rowan Tiger
20/1 Tara Rose.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* Statistically there are only 5 renewals to consider
* 5 year olds have  yet to win this race.
* SMAD PLACE wouldnt interest me because of that
* Especially not first time out when not 100% fit
* JOSEPH LISTER is also rejected as a 5yo
* He looks short of runs with just 3 hurdle races
* You would have thought lightly raced hurdlers are best
* Thats not the case in this race
* Winners had 16 12 32 20 17 previous hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* ROWAN TIGER is out with 4 runs from a Novice Hurdle
* A BRIDGE TOO FAR has only had 6 hurdle starts
* Without Graded backclass I dont see a strong case
* TARA ROSE – Rejected as a mare with just 4 runs
* ORZARE wouldnt interest me first time out
* ROYAL CHARM doesnt offer me enough
* Not keen that he comes from a Chase
* Not sure he is fit enough
* Not convinced he is weighted to win anyway
* CICERON – I thought he had a fair chance
* CICERON is potentially a saver
* PATEESE – Comes here after well beaten last time
* He had excuses and should strip fitter
* Not long ago he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle
* I think he is worth a saver

S e l e c t i o n

SHOREACRES

I like the chance of SHOREACRES. He has had 2 Hurdle
starts since switching from Chasing. He never really took
to fences but did manage a win from 8 Chase starts. Look
back before he went Chasing. This horse managed a 4th
in the Champion Bumper and a decent 7th in a Supreme
Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. That shows he has plenty
of class. He then went Chasing with limited success but a
couple of hurdle runs recently shows me he can win this.
He does have fewer hurdle runs than all past winners did
but he is plenty experienced because of his chasing races.
I think his last two runs show him in top form and with
a strong form chance. He likes right handed tracks and
is very fit and it’s hard to see him being far away here.

Selection

SHOREACRES Some 7/1 and 13/2 was available earlier when full members got this.
11/2 now top bookmaker price at Ladbrokes, Bet365 and VC
Each way I would suggest

Or alternately if you like bet it on the nose with a saver bet on
PATEESE at 10/1 Bet365 Betfred sky Ladbrokes BoyleSports

For more info on my private service see here ==> Betting Advice

.

Cambridgeshire Handicap

This is a copy of a member message sent on Friday to clients

at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

The advised 33/1 has now gone but 22/1 is available right now on William Hill

Out of interest skybet are offering 6 places instead of the usual 4 on this race today.

NEWMARKET 3.40

ToteSPORT.COM CAMBRIDGESHIRE
(HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+)  1m1f

1 Ante Post Bet

Cambridgeshire Handicap (Saturday)
Newmarket 3.40

GREYLAMI  28/1

£25 Each Way

33/1 Hills – VC -Boyles -Spbet -
28/1 Bet365 -Tote – Blue Square -888sport
25/1 Ladbrokes -Corals – Stan J – Sky
25/1 Paddy PowerBetfred

Decided to go with a bet in the Cambridgeshire
Not statistically perfect but I have
set the bar so high statistically that I can find
fault with everything and I spent most of the
day on the race yesterday and happy that he
is overpriced and has a better chance than lots
of better fancied runners. We dont have many
bets in big handicaps and you can always expect
to lose in these races but we have earnt a crack
at the race this week so Greylami is a full bet.

SELECTION – GREYLAMI Each Way 28/1

The Cambridgeshire is a 9f Handicap for horses rated 0-109
and there is a long history to this race. The Maximum field
of 35 runners makes it a very hard race but there are a lot of good statistics in the race
to narrow the field down. All my trends in the race are given.
You may wish to apply them all yourselves and come up with a different conclusion.
I have tightened the statistics to the point where they are so tough for a horse to pass
that any horses that fail one trend would still be seen as a possible winner.
Its the horses that fail far more than one trend and are consistently coming up
short that I want to oppose. No point writing detailed paragraphs about 100/1
no hopers so I will just narrow the field down.

HORSES  FAILING MULTIPLE ANGLES

STEVIE THUNDER – BENCOOLEN -ELLEMUJIE
GRANSTON – FIGHT CLUB – TARTAN GIGHA
THE CAYTERERS – SMOKEY OAKEY -MARAJAA
KAOLAK – DOCOFTHEBAY -MOYNAHAN
SUPASEUS – GENERAL ELIOTT – KING OLAV
HOWDIGO -  ALFATHAA – NANTON

* SHAVANSKY did not do enough last time
* He had a shaky profile anyway
* His recent for is just not good enough to win
* CREDIT SWAP looks weak to me
* Statistically he is not suitable
* On the go too long this season
* His 3 wins in Summer leave him badly handicapped
* Never won above Class 4 before
* He has the worst draw in stall 1
* Claimer ridden he should be well beaten
* HILLVIEW BOY doesnt have enough positives
* He has ran every month since March 2009
* Its not a traditional preperation
* There are not enough positives to overlook any flaws
* I feel the same about KAY GEE  BE as well
* As an exposed 5yo his flaws cant be forgiven
* ALAZEYAB doesnt fit the right profile
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46) and he didnt
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* ALAZEYAB has 10 runs
* He doesnt fit with a past winner well enough
* His form in Pattern Class also weakens his profile
* So to does his inability to place last time
* He probably isnt his owners number 1 anyway
* ALAZEYAB is unlikely to be the one
* THE WHICH DOCTOR isnt out of this at big odds
* I have found 2 reasonably similar winners
* I have found 1 quite similar winners
* What bothers me is he comes from a Class 4 handicap
* No horse in the last 22 years came from this class
* Moving from a 0-82 to a 0-109 is a serious leap
* More so for a horse thats had 17 runs already
* Thats a big problem for me and I oppose him
* WANNABE KING looks wort considering
* He is a 3yo coming here with a W W W record
* He doesnt come from a Grade 1 track
* We know 19 of the 20 winners did that
* He is a 3yo from an 8f handicap
* Horses aged 3 doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* 3 year olds with a penalty were just 1-27
* He just misses out from having a strong profile
* He may find this class from his rating just too much
* Certainly has a chance though
* BRIEF ENCOUNTER isnt dead statistically
* There hasnt been a similar 3yo winner though
* None had pattern form as he does
* They all managed to place last time and he didnt
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46) and he didnt
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* I think there are better options
* BUSHMAN fails far too many trends for me
* Only 1 winner since 1987 ran in a Group race
* He just looks the wrong type for the race
* APPLAUSE is a 3yo filly and all 21 of those lost
* She is very inexperienced and lightly raced this year
* Three runs this year may not be enough for a filly
* All 3yo winners had more runs this year and were male
* They all managed to place last time as well
* She was impressive last time finishing fast
* It was only a Fillies handicap though
* She will be well handicapped but I cant bet her
* She isnt proven statistically and no winners were similar
* SALUTE HIM fails far too many angles
* Exposed with an absence and few runs this year
* I couldnt argue a good case for him
* ALMIQDAAD is a lightly raced 3 year old
* He has just 3 runs this year
* All winning 3 year olds had more runs this year
* None had ran in Listed or Group class before either
* His Group race form is a worry
* Only 1 of the last 20 winners had Group race form
* That 1-121 record has to be a worry
* He also has a penalty and just 1-27 overcame that
* ALMIQDAAD is nearly there
* He just does not have as safe a profile as I’d want

P O S S I B L E S

* ROYAL DESTINATION was well beaten last time
* We know horses well beaten last time are awful
* However last years winner was the only horse to win
* That winner was very similar to ROYAL DESTINATION
* He was lightly raced and aged 4 as well
* He came from the same Newbury Handicap as well
* Last years winner had topweight in the Newbury race
* ROYAL DESTINATION also had topweight
* Whilst last years winner was hampered he wasnt
* ROYAL DESTINATION shaped like he needed that race
* It may be that he needs 1 more run
* His trainer has 3 in the race and he looks the 2nd string
* ROYAL DESTINATION has a chance but doubts remain
* TRYST has had 4 career starts
* That makes him less experienced than all past winners
* Horses with under 5 runs were 0-14
* The best they managed was a 3rd and 4th place
* TRYST has won just 1 race
* 19 of the last 20 winners had won more races
* All 4 year old winners had at least 2 career wins
* Another problem is so few come via non handicaps
* He is nearly there but he doesnt match a past winner
* SIRVINO has a long 84 day absence
* The 3 winners that did that were all aged 4
* They all had under 13 career runs
* SIRVINO survives that problem
* He is not dissimilar to Pasternak
* He also won this after winning the Magnet Cup
* Horses aged 4 with 9-12 runs and 10 weeks off were 2-3
* You can argue he has more runs this year than the others
* Statistically he isnt too bad but I am a bit worried
* He has risen 36lbs in the weights this season
* He started the year off 65 and thats hardly a sign of class
* I doubt many past winners started the year off 65
* Winning off 101 with a long absence isnt easy
* SIRVINO is a possible but it wont be easy
* SWOP was 3rd in last years race
* He did that from a very poor draw
* He also came from last place after half way
* SWOP deserves maximum respect
* He does not fail any of my statistics
* Few other horses in this race can say the same
* I thought he really caught the eye last time
* I would like a few lbs less weight
* We havent had a winner his age carry so much weight
* Thats a worry but he looks a serious runner
* CHARM SCHOOL has a good profile
* He looks strong statistically from the best trial race
* Some question whether 9f will be far enough
* I wouldnt criticise him on that point
* Not with his profile solid in other areas

S E L E C T I O N

GREYLAMI  25/1 – 33/1

Each Way

This has been a Cambridgeshire with very few significant
gambles and it’s clear there isnt one outstanding candidate
as the market suggests. There are several potential winners
but they all have something or other to overcome. I do like
SWOP a lot but the weight will be very hard to carry and I
didnt think he would give 15lbs to GREYLAMI.

GREYLAMI has just beaten TRYST . I think he can again.
SIRVINO is a danger but you have a good chance of beating
any horse with an absence of 12 weeks. CHARM SCHOOL
has a solid chance but he has not made any big waves in the market and doesnt come
without question marks. I’m happy GREYLAMI has a great each way chance at a big price.
He does have some issues statistically but that doesnt worry me.

Statistically I have set the bar so high that everything will fail angles in this race and I
have made them as demanding as I can. I would be happier if he has 1 less run and 1
less run this year but I can live with that. Statistically I respect him and he resembles the
1996 winner Clifton Fox closely. Whilst he comes from a conditions race and I would
prefer a handicap that did not stop another very similar type in Blue Bajan finishing
second in 2006 from the same race with a very similar profile. I dont see any strong
reasons  why he cant go very close in this race with just 8st 5lbs.

He showed a nice turn of foot last time and would have won
had he not been mugged on the line. I think you want a horse conditioned at 10f  and
every recent winner had proven form over further than 9f. He has won in a big field like
almost all recent winners. It may be something less progressive beats him but there is
no guarantee of that as most of the lighter raced horses have flaws and he is fit and
in form with a recent run and gets weight from almost anything that matters in the race
and I think he should go very well.

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CAMBRIDGESHIRE STATISTICS

* There has been 20 renewals Since 1989
* Horses from 3yo handicaps are only 1-45 in 20 years
* Horses with Less than 5 career starts 0-10
* Horses with between 5 and 12 career races are best
* Only 4 of the last 19 winners were exposed
* Those with over 21 career starts were 4-234
* Horses with 21 + runs were weak in these areas
* Exposed horses with under 7 runs that season were 0-56
* Exposed horses aged 4 (1-56) aged 5 (0-67)
* Exposed horses aged 7 or more (0-49)
* Exposed horses with a 32 + days absence are 0-40
* Exposed horses that are female are 0-27
* Exposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are 0-113
* Exposed horses that have penalties (1-24)
* Exposed horses not 1st or 2nd last time were 1-196
* Exposed horses coming from non handicaps are 0-41
* Exposed horses with 9st or more are 1-75
* Horses with 13 + Career races had a 6-422 record
* Horses with 13 + runs and less than 5 this year were 0-57
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 3 are 0-35
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 5 are 0-106
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 3-4-5 are just 2-305
* Those in the 2-305 record with Pattern class form 0-119
* Both that did it had very light weights 8st 2lbs or less
* Horses with 13 + runs with Group 1-Group 2 form are 0-40
* Horses with 13 + runs without a run in a month are 0-95
* Horses with 13 + runs beaten 6 + lengths last time are 0-190
* Horses with 9 or more runs this season are appalling (1-161)
* Horses with 1-2-3-4 runs this season all had under 13 runs
* None had ran in Listed or Group class before (0-45)
* 19 of the last 20 winners came from a Grade 1 track
* 5 Year Olds have a 0-119 record – but not many were fancied
* Horses aged 8 or more have never won (0-21)
* All 3 year old had a 6-190 record
* They all had between 5 and 12 career starts
* Those with less (0-9) and more (0-35)
* All 3 year old winners had at least 4 runs that year
* All 3 year old winners lacked any headgear
* No 3 year old winners had ran in Listed-Group class before (0-43)
* All 3 year old winners were Male
* All 3 year old winners with a penalty had a 1-27 record
* All 3 year old winners were 1st 2nd 3rd last time out (others 0-78)
* All 3 year old winners came from a Class 3 or Class 2 race
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46)
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* 4 year old winners that had 5-12 starts had a 6-65 record
* 4 year old winners that had 13 or more runs had a weak 2-164 record
* Both were very lightweighted horses
* 4 year olds who ran in Listed or Group class before are 0-85
* All 4 year old winners lacked any headgear
* All 4 year old winners ridden by a claimer are 0-49
* All 4 year old winners not 1-2-3-4 last time are 1-25
* All 4 year old winners came from handicaps
* All 4 year old winners had at least 2 career wins
* Horses aged 6 or 7 won the race 5 times in the last 20 years
* Horses aged 6 or 7 all had at least 5 runs that season
* All 4 winners aged 6 or 7 ran within the previous 3 weeks
* Horses that ran in listed or group class before were 3-239
* None ran in Group 1 (0-38) or Group 2 before (0-20)
* Since 1993 they had a 1-199 record
* No horse with Pattern form had under 13 runs (0-55)
* None had under 5 runs this season (0-49)
* Horses aged 3-4-5 with listed or group class form are 0-171
* Horses with listed or group class form were all male
* They all came via handicaps
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were only 1-134
* Horses with pattern form with under 5 wins were 0-160
* Horses with pattern form and 9st 5lbs or more were 0-48
* Horses aged 5 or more are best running within 3 weeks
* Those that were absent over 3 weeks were 1-132
* If a horse has over a Months absence it may be a certain type
* It should have under 13 runs (others 0-95)
* It should have under 6 runs this season (others 0-82)
* It will have ran in Class 2 or no higher
* Horses absent a Monththat ran in Listed-Group class before are 0-62
* Female horses won 3 renewals since 1987
* All 3 had between 5-20 runs and aged 4 or more
* They all carried 8st 8lbs or less
* 7lbs claimers are 0-32

* Horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are appalling (1-257)
* That winner was last year though
* Horses from the 9f handicap at Goodwood recently are 0-30
* Horses that had not won in their last 6 races are just 1-198
* Horses from Listed Class last time had a 0-34 record
* Horses from Class 4 or lower had a 0-72 record
* Horses dropping in trip from 10.5f or more are 0-32
* Horses coming from a Conditions race are just 1-115
* Horses with 2-7 Career wins won 19 of the 20
* Horses with 9st 7lbs or more (1-48) underperform
* Most winners had been laid out for the race.
* Usually they had not started their season until June
* Either that or they had a 6 week break at some stage

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