Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup is too difficult to consider for a strong bet.

I am putting up my thoughts today on it however not because
it is the strongest advice I have for full members today
but beacuse it is the race a few of you have asked about.

I have shortlisted six and it was Alben Star at 20/1 that did best on my angles.

For live market odds on this race see here ==> Live Odds

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 19 renewals of this race since 1993

* I think the following statistics are worth following

* Horses from 5f races struggled and should be opposed
* None of todays 5f horses have good profiles so these are out
* BOASTFUL – CHEVIOT -BORDERLESCOTT

* Horses aged 8 or more have yet to win in decades
* JOHANNES – REGAL PARADE fail that

* Horses aged 6 or more won just 3 renewals since the 1980′s
* None were absent as long as WAFFLE or CAPTAIN RAMIUS

* Horses aged 6 that won all ran within 17 days since the 1980′s
* THE CHEKA – BRAE HILL fail that

* BEACON LODGE is underraced for a 7yo

* MISS WORK OF ART is underraced for a 3yo filly

* No exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* RODRIGO DE TORRES fails that

* Avoid horses aged 5 or more absent 7 weeks or more
* MIRZA – TARIQ TOO fails that

* Horses winning last time absent a month are wrong
* PINTURA has that to overcome that

* MORACHE MUSIC – Shaky and unsafe absent 70 days
* Found a 4yo like him with a stone less weight
* That winner didnt come from a Group race like him

* DOC HAY is 5 and won last time out
* MAAREK  is 5 and won last time out
* Horses aged 5 doing that were 0-22
* Both are hard to match in all similar races too
* DOC HAY has a career high mark to overcome as well
* MAAREK has ran just once in 73 days
* He has to do that carrying a massive weight as well

* HAWKEYETHENOO comes from a Group 1 race
* The 2007 winner did that but he was an un exposed 4yo
* HAWKEYETHENOO is exposed and 6 years old
* No other horses won similar races from Group races
* HAWKEYETHENOO also has a career high mark
* He’s raced just once in 49 days as well and Stall 3 isnt ideal

* SHOLAAN – Difficult task as a 3yo absent 84 days
* He has 4 runs this year and no 3yo won this race like him
* I can find  a 3yo winning absent 78 days
* That was 2007 Silver Cup winner Utmost Respect
* He was lighter raced though and won Group 2 races
* SHOLAAN – Not quite right for me
* Also have to consider stall 2 as low numbers are unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* PEARL ICE is a lightly raced 4yo absent 84 days
* Two Ayr Gold Cup winners were not unlike him
* They had 7 week absences in 1996 and 2001
* PEARL ICE does have 12 weeks though
* Hard to know whether 84 days is too long or not

* OUR JONATHAN won this last year from the same stall
* He has the same absence and comes from the same trial race
* The 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo absent 28 days
* OUR JONATHAN only has a week more off the track
* I think he has enough to shortlist
* He does have far fewer runs this year
* There are more doubts about his current form as well

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 5yo absent a month
* I would have much prefered a run within a month
* I could overlook 35 days but exposed 5yo’s rarely win this
* That said the 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo
* He was absent 28 days only a week more so he’s in
* COLONEL MAK has a career high mark though

* SHROPSHIRE is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* I like that profile as he has a recent run
* I found a couple of similar winners in other races
* I just wish he had more than 1 run in 49 days

* LOUIS THE PIOUS is an unexposed 4yo
* He has a months break and Class 2 form
* I can live with that profile
* The 2007 Silver Cup winner was like him

* ALBEN STAR is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* ALBEN STAR hasnt raced in a Month either
* Thats a fine profile as the 1996 and 2001 winners shared it
* He’s been Running well in big handicaps all year
* ALBEN STAR looks the best profile to me

Selection

ALBEN STAR 20/1

Each Way at 20/1 paying 1/4 for 5 places at Bet365
Same available at sky and stan james but Bet365 will give you best odds guaranteed
==================================

This was provided by Guy from Mathematician Betting

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tipster

 

50/1 Winner At Newmarket?

50/1 Winner At Newmarket?

A specualtive  long shot each way suggestion for newmarket today from The Mathematician. To visit his own site click here ==> Horse Betting

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NEWMARKET 1.50

Victor Chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

2/1 Delegator, 5/1 Red Jazz, 10/1 Mabait, 10/1 Main Aim
12/1 Cat Junior, 12/1 Dream Eater, 16/1 High Standing
20/1 Duff, 20/1 Himalya, Shakespearean, 25/1 Harrison George 25/1 Sir Gerry, 33/1 Golden Stream, 50/1 Blue Angel.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 20 renewals since 1990
* 18 of the 20 winners had between 9 and 14 career runs
* Horses with 13 or more starts struggled
* The only ones that won had Grade 1 form before
* Male 3 year olds are just 1-37 with 13 or more runs
* No 3 year old has won this down in distance

SHORTLIST

* DELEGATOR has 1 run this season
* A Few past winners had 2 runs but none had 1
* Thats the biggest problem he faces
* BLUE ANGEL has a surprisingly good profile
* She is very similar to the 2007 winner
* She is  close to 2 other winners
* In a race of shocks she could be interesting
* 3 Year Old fillies with 7-12 career starts
* Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time
* At least 6 runs this season
* These horses had a 4-6 record in this race
* The last 2 that won (2007 and 2000) were 20/1
* BLUE ANGEL is a possibly shock  winner.

It looks a ridiculous shout to go with BLUE ANGLE who
is 50/1 and more on Betfair and multiple bookmakers but the last 10 renewals have
seen horses win a 20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 and 16/1 and they
were impossible to find as well so she may be able to nick
a place. I’m not keen on any of the alternatives so with a
risk of making myself look stupid I will go with her.

Definately more chance of losing with this bet than winning with it but the name of the game is long term edge and at 50/1 I sniff some value.
SELECTION

BLUE ANGEL 50/1 + Each  Way Bet365BetfredLadbrokes – stan james

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

Haydock Free Horse Racing Tip

In Yesterday’s main member message I didn’t suggest a stand out bet and decided to let the message stand or fall on the previews.
The mail had 10 previews and we came back with 5 winners
including a 16/1 winner and plenty of places as well.
It shows I am reading things well at the moment and have
the right level of confidence and momentum.

A ridiculous ammount of racing today. The main message for full members
has comments in 20 seperate races today so plenty to read.
Some are full detailed previews and others
just notes and little more.

Here on the free blog I am posting up one of the races covered.

Join the full service at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp
and you can read the other races covered in our full member area.
****************************************************

HAYDOCK 2.50

Bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)1m3f200y

9/2 Barshiba, 11/2 Polly´s Mark, 13/2 Grace O´malley
7/1 Les Fazzani,  8/1 Lady Jane Digby 9/1 Tinaar
10/1 Rosika, 14/1 Champagnelifestyle 25/1 Cassique Lady
25/1 Flame Of Gibraltar, 40/1 Najam.

* The Lancashire Oaks has 19 renewals since 1991
* This is a Group race over 11.5f for fillies
* The race may have changed since 2004
* Before then horses with 9 or more starts were 0-21
* Since 2004 we have had 3 winners with 9 or more runs
* I dont mind these horses as long as they match previous winners
*  NAJAM  won a 3yo maiden last time out like 4 past winners
* None however had 4 + runs like her
* None like her had 2 + runs that season
* NAJAM took 4 runs to win a maiden and thats not good enough
* TINAAR has just been beaten in a Hamilton Handicap
* None of the last 19 winners came from Handicaps
* TINAAR has never been in Listed or Group Class before
* Only 3 past winners could say that and all had under 4 runs
* TINAAR has 9 and may well lack the class
* No 4 year old won this with just 1 run this season
* The 2007 winner did officially but had 3 Hurdle races as well
* I think 1 run this year will leave a 4yo short
* ROSIKA fails that and has no form in Group class
* I dont fancy her winning this with just 1 run
* FLAME OF GIBRALTAR is rejected for similar reasons
* She is also a 4yo with 1 run this year
* She was well beaten last time as well
* There were only 2 winners aged 5 or more
* Both ran within a month and had 2-3 runs this season
* CLOWANCE is 5 and has just 1 run this season
* She also has a 77 day absence to overcome
* That would trouble me that no similar horse won
* Both winning horses aged 5 or more had Grade 1 form
* CASSIQUE LADY is 5 and does not have that
* They both came from higher class races than she does
* CASSIQUE LADY looks a grade below what is required
* BARSHIBA won this last year as a 5 year old
* She is now 6 and no past winner was that age
* Last year she was beaten 7 lengths at Ascot with 3 prep runs
* This year she was beaten 9 lengths at Ascot with 2 prep runs
* Not convinced that will be enough for her
* Only 2 past winners came From Royal Ascot
* Both had 3 + runs that season
* Thats my only concern alongside her age
* I am not shortlisting her because of that
* LADY JANE DIGBY doesnt interest me
* There were 5 winners that came from 10f or shorter
* They were all 3 year olds and lightly raced
* LADY JANE DIGBY is exposed and aged 5 doing that
* Because of that I feel she is the wrong type
* LES FAZZANI is 6 older than all past winners since 2001
* With 23 runs he is the joint most exposed runner
* You can argue all her turf wins came on soft ground
* If the ground was not fast I would respect her
* She is still older than any past winner though
* Because of that I dont want to select her

SHORTLIST

POLLYS MARK
GRACE O´MALLEY
CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE

* CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE is 3 and comes from the Oaks
* Horses doing that with 2 runs this season like here were 2-5
* They both had 3 career starts and she has 4 runs
* Thats the only thing different from her profile
* She was backed for this last Wednesday
* I think she has a reasonably good chance of a surprise
* POLLYS MARK is 4 and has had 13 career starts
* Horses aged 4 won 6 races but only 1 had 9 or more starts
* The record of 4 year olds with 9 + runs is 1-26 (Pongee 2004)
* However that 4yo winner (Pongee) had 2 runs that year like her
* She also came from the same race the Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock
* That puts POLLYS MARK firmly in the picture
* She didnt win at Haydock unlike the 2004 winner
* She was beaten in a photo and thats good enough for me
* You would like the stable in better form though
* GRACE O´MALLEY is a Positive
* Hard to read and from Ireland but no obvious flaws
* In form and thriving now she is in foal

SELECTION

GRACE O´MALLEY 6/1 Each Way

If the 3 year old (Champagnelifestyle) pops up I wont
be surprised but I have 3 on the shortlist and can not go
with all of them. I am going with GRACE O´MALLEY
because she is in Foal and has already won recently when
in Foal and hopefully she can carry that forward to win.

GRACE O´MALLEY 7/1 Each Way

(Polly’s Mark an optional Saver)

NB 7/1 was available earlier when this was given to full members

now best priced 13/2 at VC stanjames Tote

Horse Bet For Saturday

NEWMARKET 3.25

SPORTINGBET.COM E B F FILLIES´ STAKES
(HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+ 0-100) 7f

100/30 Pyrrha, 7/2 Lassarina, 9/2 Adoring, 5/1 Victoria Sponge, 8/1 Volochkova, 10/1 Oceana Blue, 12/1 Carcinetto, 16/1 Shaws Diamond, 25/1 Vitoria.

There has not been many Fillies handicaps at this time of
year in this sort of grade so statistically we dont have great angles.
What few there have been all went to unexposed horses.
I see OCEANA BLUE and CARCINETTO as far
too exposed and vulnerable. I dont see VITORIA defying
a nasty absence either. ADORING has had just one career
run. She also has a 62 day absence and races on soft ground.
Having one run looks something to be worried about.
I’ve looked at every fillies handicap that has ever been run at
any distance in Class 3 and better.
Only one horse has won one of these races and that horse (Tartouche)
did it at a different trip and won a muddling false pace race before
going on to win Group races. ADORING is trying to do something no
other horse has done. Given that she also has an absence and hasnt
been on the ground before I’d want to oppose her second time out in
a 0-97 handicap. I didnt think VOLOCHKOVA would have the class.
She scraped home in a triple photo on a Class 5 race on the sand
that was only a 0-75 class race and she now takes a 3 grade rise
into a Class 2 contest and I suspect that will find her out.
LASSARINA has just one run this season and all similar races show
you are much better off with at least 3 runs that season.
She could well be underraced especially with a 98 day absence as well.
I respect the fact she drops from a Group race but shes inexperienced
and far from  certain to be fit. She has a large weight for a 3 year old.
The fact she won a Conditions race on her debut and then ran in two Group
Races shows she has class but its done nothing for her handicap mark
and a mark of 97 wont be easy to overcome with all her other issues like
her absence and inexperience and just the one run this year. She may
win but she isnt for me. SHAWS DIAMOND may find this
a bit too warm. PYRRHA is lightly raced and open to some
improvement. She had a legitimate excuse last time out at
Newmarket when badly drawn. She is tempting each way
around 4/1 but I have a couple of reservations. She has no
form on ground softer than good and isnt sure to want the
soft ground. I also worry she has just two runs this year
and could be at a fitness disadvantage. VICTORIA SPONGE
looks interesting. She looked progressive recently as she
easily won two handicaps but came unstuck last time. It
was no surprise as she was a 3 year old giving weight and
a penalty to older horses when having to drop in distance
which didnt suit her. VICTORIA SPONGE will appreciate
this return to 7f today. I would rather she came from a 7f
race but that doesnt worry me as others have far more to
worry about in terms of fitness and experience and ground.
I think VICTORIA SPONGE is a decent each way bet.

SELECTION – VICTORIA SPONGE Each Way 6/1 at Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

To Visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Betting