Our old fried Guy Ward aka The Mathematician sent out in interesting analysis
piece recently focussed on Sire Stats for the upcoming Welsh Grand National
Copied below for your info.
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WELSH NATIONAL SIRES PERFORMANCE RATINGS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 3 FACTORS
STAMINA – CLASS – GROUND
Using Sire Statistics is interesting and helpful and there
is merit in this approach but it is a bit Amateurish if not
done properly. You can fully trust Sire statistics. Partly
as many racecourses have misleading distances. This
sounds stupid but some races are run over an entirely
different distance to those advetised. Then you have a
lot of Clerk of the Courses calling the ground wrong as
I’m sure you will know. After that you have many races
that are falsly run which undermines the stats anyway.
That said it is still usefull to understand how likely any
horse is to perform under certain conditions. It can help
and although this method is only a smaller piece of the
overall jigsaw it is a nevertheless a piece we should do.
* What we do know is this
* The Welsh National winner has to stay 3m 5f
* He has to do that in a High Class race
* He will have to do that on Soft or Heavy ground too
I dont want to just look at a Sires record. After all I may
find that a Sire has bred a 3m 5f winner but if thats won
in a selling race on fast ground it’s meaningless when I
try and work out if a horse can win a Welsh National.
* I have looked at all the Sires in the Welsh National
* I have looked for their winners over 3m 3f or more
* I have then looked at how many did it in Class races
* Finally how many of those did that on bad ground
WELSH NATIONAL SIRE PERFORMANCE RESULTS
* The following results are in order of my findings
* The Top of the table have the best records
* These are most likely to win Class long distance races
* And most likely to do that on bad ground
Winners at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + on Softer Ground
JOIN TOGETHER 5-53 record
TEAFORTHREE 3-30 record
GILES CROSS 2-34 record
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 1-15 record
LE BEAU BAI 1-17 record
MICHEL LE BON 1-20 record
VIKING BLOND 0-3 record
ALFIE SPINNER 0-3 record
SONA SASTA 0-5 record
QUARTZ DE THAIX 0-6 record
BRADLEY 0-8 record
UNIVERSAL SOLDIER 0-9 record
ROALCO DE FARGES 0-14 record
ALFIE SHERRIN- 0-16 record
Detailed Results of the Findings
JOIN TOGETHER
* His sire has 610 winners
* 43 of these came at 3m 3f or more
* 8 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 5-53 record
* Includes a Midlands National winner and Grand National 2nd
TEAFORTHREE
* His sire has 608 winners
* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more
* 4 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 3-30 record
GILES CROSS
* His sire has 471 winners
* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more
* 5 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 2-34 record
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE
* His sire has 611 winners
* 8 of these came at 3m 3f or more
* 3 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-15 record
* The sires had a Midlands N ational winner on Heavy 4m 1f
LE BEAU BAI
* His sire has 150 winners
* 7 of these came at 3m 3f or more
* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-17 record
* That winner was Le Beau Bai winning last years race
MICHEL LE BON
* His sire has 71 winners
* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more
* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-20 record
* That winner came in a Cross Country race though
VIKING BLOND
* His sire has 11 winners
* None of these came at 3m 3f or more
* None of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record
* Best return was this horse placing over 3m 3f on heavy
ALFIE SPINNER
* His sire has 481 winners
* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more
* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record
* The best match was a second in a Hennessy Gold Cup
SONA SASTA
* His sire has 29 winners
* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more
* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-1 record
* Sires got a 0-5 record at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + none placed
QUARTZ DE THAIX
* His sire has 37 winners
* 1 of these came at 3m 3f or more
* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-6 record
* None of the 6 losers even placed
BRADLEY
* His sire has 361 winners
* 14 of these came at 3m 3f or more
* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-8 record
* Best match is a 3rd place over 3m 4f on heavy
UNIVERSAL SOLDIER
* His sire has 141 winners
* 5 of these came at 3m 3f or more
* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-9 record
* The sires had a 2nd in the Eider Chase on Heavy 4m 1f
ROALCO DE FARGES
* His sire has 91 winners
* 4 of these came at 3m 3f or more
* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-14 record
* There was a Grand National winner on good ground
* Several in the 0-14 record placed in these races
ALFIE SHERRIN
* His sire has 347 winners
* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more
* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher
* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-16 record
* Only 1 of 16 placed and that was Alfie Sherrin in Irish National
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I will be providing additional insight and analysis on the Welsh National
to my free newsletter subscribers in the run up to the big race on Dec 27th.
If you wish to listen in please register here
Also Note– Christmas Sale Now On
Get my analysis of multiple live races each day at a cheap rate under my Christmas
offer
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp
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Best Wishes
Guy Ward