Welsh Grand National – Sire Stats

Our old fried Guy Ward aka The Mathematician sent out in interesting analysis
piece recently focussed on Sire Stats for the upcoming Welsh Grand National

Copied below for your info.
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WELSH NATIONAL SIRES PERFORMANCE RATINGS

BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 3 FACTORS

STAMINA – CLASS – GROUND

Using Sire Statistics is interesting and helpful and there
is merit in this approach but it is a bit Amateurish if not
done properly. You can fully trust Sire statistics. Partly
as many racecourses have misleading distances. This
sounds stupid but some races are run over an entirely
different distance to those advetised. Then you have a
lot of Clerk of the Courses calling the ground wrong as
I’m sure you will know. After that you have many races
that are falsly run which undermines the stats anyway.
That said it is still usefull to understand how likely any
horse is to perform under certain conditions. It can help
and although this method is only a smaller piece of the
overall jigsaw it is a nevertheless a piece we should do.

* What we do know is this

* The Welsh National winner has to stay 3m 5f

* He has to do that in a High Class race

* He will have to do that on Soft or Heavy ground too

I dont want to just look at a Sires record. After all I may
find that a Sire has bred a 3m 5f winner but if thats won
in a selling race on fast ground it’s meaningless when I
try and work out if a horse can win a Welsh National.

* I have looked at all the Sires in the Welsh National

* I have looked for their winners over 3m 3f or more

* I have then looked at how many did it in Class races

* Finally how many of those did that on bad ground

 

WELSH NATIONAL SIRE PERFORMANCE RESULTS

* The following results are in order of my findings

* The Top of the table have the best records

* These are most likely to win Class long distance races

* And most likely to do that on bad ground

Winners at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + on Softer Ground

JOIN TOGETHER 5-53 record

TEAFORTHREE 3-30 record

GILES CROSS 2-34 record

BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 1-15 record

LE BEAU BAI 1-17 record

MICHEL LE BON 1-20 record

VIKING BLOND 0-3 record

ALFIE SPINNER 0-3 record

SONA SASTA 0-5 record

QUARTZ DE THAIX 0-6 record

BRADLEY 0-8 record

UNIVERSAL SOLDIER 0-9 record

ROALCO DE FARGES 0-14 record

ALFIE SHERRIN- 0-16 record

 

Detailed Results of the Findings

JOIN TOGETHER

* His sire has 610 winners

* 43 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 8 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 5-53 record

* Includes a Midlands National winner and Grand National 2nd

TEAFORTHREE

* His sire has 608 winners

* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 4 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 3-30 record

GILES CROSS

* His sire has 471 winners

* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 5 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 2-34 record

BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE

* His sire has 611 winners

* 8 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 3 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-15 record

* The sires had a Midlands N ational winner on Heavy 4m 1f

LE BEAU BAI

* His sire has 150 winners

* 7 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-17 record

* That winner was Le Beau Bai winning last years race

MICHEL LE BON

* His sire has 71 winners

* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-20 record

* That winner came in a Cross Country race though

VIKING BLOND

* His sire has 11 winners

* None of these came at 3m 3f or more

* None of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record

* Best return was this horse placing over 3m 3f on heavy

ALFIE SPINNER

* His sire has 481 winners

* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record

* The best match was a second in a Hennessy Gold Cup

SONA SASTA

* His sire has 29 winners

* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-1 record

* Sires got a 0-5 record at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + none placed

QUARTZ DE THAIX

* His sire has 37 winners

* 1 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-6 record

* None of the 6 losers even placed

BRADLEY

* His sire has 361 winners

* 14 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-8 record

* Best match is a 3rd place over 3m 4f on heavy

UNIVERSAL SOLDIER

* His sire has 141 winners

* 5 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-9 record

* The sires had a 2nd in the Eider Chase on Heavy 4m 1f

ROALCO DE FARGES

* His sire has 91 winners

* 4 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-14 record

* There was a Grand National winner on good ground

* Several in the 0-14 record placed in these races

ALFIE SHERRIN

* His sire has 347 winners

* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-16 record

* Only 1 of 16 placed and that was Alfie Sherrin in Irish National

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I will be providing additional insight and analysis on the Welsh National

to my free newsletter subscribers in the run up to the big race on Dec 27th.

If you wish to listen in please register here

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Also Note– Christmas Sale Now On

Get my analysis of multiple live races each day at a cheap rate under my Christmas
offer

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Horse Betting On Derby Day

Our usual free Saturday Horse Racing Tip from Guy over at the Mathematician Betting wesite.

To visit his site click here==>  Horse Betting

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It’s Derby Day and whilst the big race is a poor shadow of
the race it used to be we have 7 meetings today and simply
a Tsunani of Racing deliberately designed to trip us up. No
chance of covering it all. Just doing what I can where I can.

I have ended up in a lot of quality handicaps in my profiles for full members today. Several lower class races have had to be ignored with so much of it. The Catterick and Beverley cards don’t get much coverage and given time limitations it’s the Classier races that dominate.

The profit built up this year is looking healthy and there’s no long term issues at all. Still aiming for a record breaking season.
It’s in the Short term we could do with a winner and to do that will probably
mean having to sort out a difficult Class 2 Handicap today which is dangerous
and intimidating and I think I have three options today worth considering.

My favoured two options today I have kept for full members as firm advised tips.
Available in the member right now if you care to join up.

Third in my pecking order today is below for you.

Epsom 4.50

5/1 King4s Warrior, 11/2 Communicator
7/1 Spanish Duke, 8/1 A Boy Named Suzi, 8/1 Quiz Mistress
9/1 Fiery Lad, 11/1 Crassula, 12/1 Incendo, 12/1 O Ma Lad
14/1 Oceanway, 16/1 Seaside Sizzler, 20/1 Layline
20/1 Lyssio, 20/1 Mezzanisi, 40/1 Toughness Danon.

This is quite a nasty 12f handicap. It is a Class 2 race and it is a long way
from the comfort zone. I had a proper look at the Draw. Its complicated.
I wouldn’t rule any out but I think the best place to be is Stalls 3-12 and its
the very low or the very high stalls that may suffer. KING4S WARRIOR
doesnt interest me. His draw wont help him but he’s 5 and he comes from a
10f race with 1-2 runs this season. No 5 year old did that when unexposed
and I felt he was generally unsafe. Not keen on QUIZ MISTRESS as a filly
with just one run so far this season. She wont find it easy to win again with
just one run. OCEANWAY is another 4yo filly and I didnt see much in her
profile I liked up in distance. I hate LAYLINE’s break of 70 days.
I don’t want INCENDO as an exposed debutant.
Horses going from Class 5 to Class 2 races like O MA LAD
are more often that not outclassed. SEASIDE SIZZLER and
A BOY NAMED SUZI are seasonal debutants. Neither have
terrible profiles and debutants can and do win. I just dont see a good enough
reason to bet either and feel there are some more likely winners.
FIERY LAD looks a bit too riSky after such a hammering last time out.

* SPANISH DUKE – I can see why he may want another run
* I can find a winner like him though so he is respected
* COMMUNICATOR – Comfortably the best profile

* Male horses aged 4
* One race this season
* Absent more than a Month
* Between 7-12 career starts
* Coming from a 12f Handicap
* Horses with this profile were 3-4 finishing W W 7 W
* COMMUNICATOR Has this profile

Selection – COMMUNICATOR

4/1 BetfredBlue SquareBetfair

The Derby – Epsom 4.00

Not a race I am playing in myself.

My quick views for what they are worth.

The Derby is a shadow of its former self and sadly one
that has deteriorated as a spectacle. I think CAMELOT
will probably win. I have never been sold on BONFIRE
and don’t see enough about him to oppose this favourite.
I don’t like MAIN SEQUENCE having already raced at
12f last time. ASTROLOGY could run well and may be
the danger but I personally wouldn’t oppose CAMELOT
to win it.