Horse Racing Articles Archives

Picking a Cheltenham Festival 2018 Winner

Picking a Cheltenham Festival 2018 Winner

Many punters will spend lots of time going through the cards looking for the value at the Cheltenham festival. We can help you further! Check out this horse generator which will hopefully select you a winning horse at the 2018 Cheltenham festival. The Gold Cup again has an open look to it with the latest Cheltenham betting odds making the Nicky Henderson trained Might Bite as the 10/3 favourite.

The 9 year old son of Scorpion has always had an incredible amount of ability but has not always had his head firmly on the game. His record under rules now stands at 9 victories in his 14 starts that have included his last 5. He has put in some breath-taking performances in the last few seasons so his position at the head of betting is justified.

Back in December 2016 and the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices Chase, Might Bite was sent off at 11/2 but put in a jaw dropping performance. He pulled 18 lengths ahead before falling at the last in which he was about to clock a very fast time. This performance was the first time Might Bite firmly establish himself as one of the most exciting horses around. This was also another indication of the horse not always have his mind on the job in the finishing stages of a race.

Read the rest of this entry

Cheltenham’s Biggest Gambles

The Cheltenham Festival is here! There’s a long, long list of the star horses attending Cheltenham Festival, but there are only a few that stand out from the crowd, one in particular being Samcro. Due to his intense training, from his trainer Gordon Elliott, he has become one of the most discussed horses to enter this year’s festival. The Paddy Power odds for Samcro on Tuesday’s Supreme Novice Hurdle are 6/4, close behind Getabird on 11/8, keep your chances nice and flexible. Then on the Wednesday for the Ballymore Novices, Samcro can been seen leading the way on 8/11. The Cheltenham Festival betting scene is looking pretty intriguing with plenty of chances for a cheeky flutter.

Considering Samcro has not raced at Cheltenham Festival before and yet received such good odds, it bodes very well for his chances of winning. He’s coming into this season after winning his first three bumpers, one of which included an impressive 17-length victory.

Other leading horses, such as Faugheen, who has the best Paddy Power odds at 2/1 for the Champion Hurdle, has managed to attract considerable attention. Having only just returned to racing this season after following a long break due to injury, he’s only been beaten once, in 2015 by stablemate Nichols Canyon and for many is looking like a definite banker.

The Cheltenham race course is a tough track, the horses will have to tackle eight fences, hurdles and ditches, and beat the race if they want to bring home the crown. With so much at stake, you can bet that there’s going to be some daredevils taking on some risky bets in the hope of profit. Other examples of Cheltenham’s biggest gambles can be found below:

 

Biggest Gambles - PP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My Wife Robbed My Betting Bank

Sometimes a horse racing punter’s life can be swimming along nicely

only for something unexpected to throw a spanner in the works.

See this true life story

My Wife Robbed My Betting Bank

 

 

November Handicap Trends

Saturday sees the last day of the racing flat season.
The big race of the day is the November Handicap at Doncaster.

With such races where one has many years of past race
runnings to consider a fair analysis approach would be to use
a big race trends style approach.

In short this is all about examining many years past runnings
of the race to seek statistical clues about the profile of past winners.

Discovering horse traits that are negative can be a big aid too.

Once you know common qualities exhibited by past winners or
past losers you can go about checking this years runners to see how
they score for both desirable and undesirable form characteristics.

So for the November Handicap what sort of characteristics
should you be looking for ?

At this point I am not going to re invent the wheel.
Instead I am going to point you over to some detailed research work
carried out by horse racing analyst Guy Ward as he has popped
researched stats for the big race at Doncaster up on a webpage for you.

Here is the link November Handicap Stats

Pace Figures For Uk Horse Racing

Dave Renham has just written quite an interesting piece dicussing and explaining the use of pace figures in in uk horse racing.

If you do not understand what pace figures are or the ways that they can be used to profit then Dave’s article is well worth a read.

Read it here ==> Horse Racing Pace Figures

 

 

Welsh Grand National – Sire Stats

Our old fried Guy Ward aka The Mathematician sent out in interesting analysis
piece recently focussed on Sire Stats for the upcoming Welsh Grand National

Copied below for your info.
*******************************************************

WELSH NATIONAL SIRES PERFORMANCE RATINGS

BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 3 FACTORS

STAMINA – CLASS – GROUND

Using Sire Statistics is interesting and helpful and there
is merit in this approach but it is a bit Amateurish if not
done properly. You can fully trust Sire statistics. Partly
as many racecourses have misleading distances. This
sounds stupid but some races are run over an entirely
different distance to those advetised. Then you have a
lot of Clerk of the Courses calling the ground wrong as
I’m sure you will know. After that you have many races
that are falsly run which undermines the stats anyway.
That said it is still usefull to understand how likely any
horse is to perform under certain conditions. It can help
and although this method is only a smaller piece of the
overall jigsaw it is a nevertheless a piece we should do.

* What we do know is this

* The Welsh National winner has to stay 3m 5f

* He has to do that in a High Class race

* He will have to do that on Soft or Heavy ground too

I dont want to just look at a Sires record. After all I may
find that a Sire has bred a 3m 5f winner but if thats won
in a selling race on fast ground it’s meaningless when I
try and work out if a horse can win a Welsh National.

* I have looked at all the Sires in the Welsh National

* I have looked for their winners over 3m 3f or more

* I have then looked at how many did it in Class races

* Finally how many of those did that on bad ground

 

WELSH NATIONAL SIRE PERFORMANCE RESULTS

* The following results are in order of my findings

* The Top of the table have the best records

* These are most likely to win Class long distance races

* And most likely to do that on bad ground

Winners at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + on Softer Ground

JOIN TOGETHER 5-53 record

TEAFORTHREE 3-30 record

GILES CROSS 2-34 record

BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 1-15 record

LE BEAU BAI 1-17 record

MICHEL LE BON 1-20 record

VIKING BLOND 0-3 record

ALFIE SPINNER 0-3 record

SONA SASTA 0-5 record

QUARTZ DE THAIX 0-6 record

BRADLEY 0-8 record

UNIVERSAL SOLDIER 0-9 record

ROALCO DE FARGES 0-14 record

ALFIE SHERRIN- 0-16 record

 

Detailed Results of the Findings

JOIN TOGETHER

* His sire has 610 winners

* 43 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 8 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 5-53 record

* Includes a Midlands National winner and Grand National 2nd

TEAFORTHREE

* His sire has 608 winners

* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 4 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 3-30 record

GILES CROSS

* His sire has 471 winners

* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 5 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 2-34 record

BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE

* His sire has 611 winners

* 8 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 3 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-15 record

* The sires had a Midlands N ational winner on Heavy 4m 1f

LE BEAU BAI

* His sire has 150 winners

* 7 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-17 record

* That winner was Le Beau Bai winning last years race

MICHEL LE BON

* His sire has 71 winners

* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-20 record

* That winner came in a Cross Country race though

VIKING BLOND

* His sire has 11 winners

* None of these came at 3m 3f or more

* None of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record

* Best return was this horse placing over 3m 3f on heavy

ALFIE SPINNER

* His sire has 481 winners

* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record

* The best match was a second in a Hennessy Gold Cup

SONA SASTA

* His sire has 29 winners

* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-1 record

* Sires got a 0-5 record at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + none placed

QUARTZ DE THAIX

* His sire has 37 winners

* 1 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-6 record

* None of the 6 losers even placed

BRADLEY

* His sire has 361 winners

* 14 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-8 record

* Best match is a 3rd place over 3m 4f on heavy

UNIVERSAL SOLDIER

* His sire has 141 winners

* 5 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-9 record

* The sires had a 2nd in the Eider Chase on Heavy 4m 1f

ROALCO DE FARGES

* His sire has 91 winners

* 4 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-14 record

* There was a Grand National winner on good ground

* Several in the 0-14 record placed in these races

ALFIE SHERRIN

* His sire has 347 winners

* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-16 record

* Only 1 of 16 placed and that was Alfie Sherrin in Irish National

*****************************************

 

I will be providing additional insight and analysis on the Welsh National

to my free newsletter subscribers in the run up to the big race on Dec 27th.

If you wish to listen in please register here

Free Horse Racing Tips

 

Also Note– Christmas Sale Now On

Get my analysis of multiple live races each day at a cheap rate under my Christmas
offer

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

*****************************************

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

2 year old maidens

Sometimes in life you come across arrogant sods who
deludedly believe they know everything about a subject.

Best thing to do is to pity a little such sorts as their attitude
can hinder them from learning and improving.

I will hold my hands up and say I most definitely
DO NOT know everything about betting.
The reality is I am learning all the time.

Just this week for example I learnt quite a bit about
2 year old maiden races..or more specifically those
that are run late in the season from September to November.

My teacher was Dave Renham ( ex racing post spotlight writer )
who produced a highly detailed research article
on this area of racing for full members over at the PunterProfits site.

Copied below is a small snippet from this research article
where Dave examines these late season 2 year old maidens
investigating how race favourites in such races fare dependant on trainer.

 

========================================

Who are the trainers to follow when their 2yo maidens start favourite at this time of the year?

Here is a table showing all trainers that have secured 8 or more wins.

 

Trainer
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Sir Mark Prescott
8
12
66.7
+£6.64
+55.3
Roger Charlton
22
39
56.4
+£14.36
+36.8
Henry Candy
8
16
50.0
+£8.96
+56.0
Bryan Smart
11
23
47.8
+£7.38
+32.1
Michael Bell
16
34
47.1
+£3.62
+10.7
John Gosden
44
94
46.8
+£13.10
+13.9
Mark Johnston
50
107
46.7
+£17.95
+16.8
Marcus Tregoning
10
22
45.5
+£2.67
+12.1
Sir Michael Stoute
50
118
42.4
-£0.57
-0.5
Saeed Bin Suroor
44
104
42.3
+£2.79
+2.7
Brian Meehan
23
55
41.8
+£1.80
+3.3
Paul Cole
10
25
40.0
-£1.75
-7.0
Tim Easterby
8
20
40.0
-£0.46
-2.3
Peter Chapple-Hyam
15
38
39.5
-£6.92
-18.2
Henry Cecil
13
33
39.4
-£3.10
-9.4
Mahmood Al Zarooni
9
24
37.5
+£3.64
+15.2
Richard Fahey
10
27
37.0
-£1.12
-4.1
William Haggas
12
33
36.4
-£5.28
-16.0
Amanda Perrett
9
25
36.0
-£4.40
-17.6
Mick Channon
19
54
35.2
-£2.70
-5.0
Jeremy Noseda
10
29
34.5
-£5.42
-18.7
Richard Hannon
34
100
34.0
-£1.94
-1.9
John Dunlop
20
75
26.7
-£28.54
-38.1
It is not surprising to see so many of the top trainers in this list. Many of their better two year olds will be running at this time of the season. Prescott, Charlton, Candy and Smart do have impressive records. On the other hand John Dunlop’s record is remarkably poor in comparison.
========================================
Picture a betting shop with 100 racing punters within in.
How many would have any clue what so ever about such cold hard facts?Most likely zero or possibly just one.
That one armed with more info than anyone else in the room… could be you.The PunterProfits full member area contains a wealth of such research on different topics.
There are also many opportunities to pick up simple to use daily tips if you
prefer to follow what others say as opposed to assess and calculate for yourself.

If at all interested in testing that site out, contact PunterProfits and
tell them you heard about them here on sports betting blog and ask
about a free trial for sports betting blog viewers.

To visit PunterProfits click here ==> Horse Racing Research


Each Way Betting Discussion

Each Way Betting Advice

The following discussion from this morning regarding betting each way was lifted from the full member area at www.PunterProfits.com

Worth a read to any one who has ever bet a horse each way.

PunterProfits as a site.. well worth closer investigation if you are a thinking
punter.

There are many highly profitable tipping threads in the private forums there
whose results would blow any £2k a year glossy slick marketed tipster
away.


Not sure where to post this but here goes. I thought it could be useful for
some discussions/articles on general betting techniques and practices. I think
that there are some techniques that we can all learn from each other that will
improve our returns.

I would be interested to hear people’s thoughts on betting each way. I personally
rarely bet each way, with the exceptions of 8 or 16 horse races or if the market
has a particular shape eg odds on fav with 2 dangers and then mostly longer
odds. I notice a lot of threads where selections are advised each way so am
interested to understand what the stats are on this or whether it is just a
matter of personal preferences. I do think that there are definite situations
where value can be obtained each way (indeed there is a thread for 16 runner
handicaps) so hope this might be a useful topic for discussion.

Carl


I ONLY back in 16+ handicaps and always each way as its mainly the place money
I want. I have constantly made money doing this and run a small service to 10
other people and have done so for the last five years.

REASON is that in my opinion big handicaps are the only races that offer value
as bookmakers struggle to make ther books up early in these races. My problem
is that nearly all the book makers will not take my bets anymore, or just offer
me crappy sp – Betfair offers poor value early on as there is never enough money
to get a decent bet on, thats the reason I went down the tipster route.

I do not back any other method or follow anyone else on the site. Yesterday
I had 10 bets – NO winners, I few seconds unfortunatly but 5 did place @ 25/1
16/1 16/1 20/1 25/1 but still made a nice profit at just £10EW.

The method I use is Value, value value + a little bit of form smile.gif

To me its the only route to go, as following the short end of the market will
lead you to busto smile.gif

GL Padman


Hi Carl

Sounds like you are starting from the mathematical angle

of seeking race frames that offer each way advantage.

eg classic case of 8 runner race with a very short price favourite.

16 runner handicaps as per Padman again is in that realm.

It can throw up potential as well for the odd each way double.

More so a case of not taking the starting point of

I am going to find a few random horses to each way double every day,

instead .. the markets are throwing up this opportunity today

with two good each framed races.

eg say for arguments sake you have two horses with a

calculated zero positive or negative edge on the win side

but 10% value on the place side.

The double factors up that value to about 21%

It is another style of selective punt that the bookies do not like very much
smile.gif

A totally different angle on each way betting is from a bank management perspective.

eg If you ask the rough question of “I have fixed capital of £1000..

How best to I manage my betting of this method for optimal growth.”

Well sometimes an each way approach can be advantageous.

Likes of Kelly formulae will indicate % bank to use will vary with both ROI
and strike rate.

With each way betting there is potential to increase strike rate / reduce losing
run length

and draw downs etc.

That can permit additional aggression in terms of % bank which can in turn lead
to faster growth rate.

However not something to go into blindly.

More so done after research of a particular approach or method indicates is
favourable to do so.

In the back of my head I recall some research ( possibly by Dave ) indicating
each way

was less profitable than on the nose assuming random horse selections.

eg picture two betting shop mug punters who over the year each bet the same
randomly selected 500

horses at 10/1 over the course of a year.

The punter who bets each will have much more pleasurable experiences when landing

place returns. The win only punter may endure losing runs with much fewer pleasurable
days.

However add up at year end what they have won or lost and the win only punter
will have

lost less than his each way betting mate.

So for average betting shop mug punters who often focus “on the day”
rather than long term

each way can be a psychological trap set by the bookmaker.

But it is also an exploitable trap by the shrewd who can identify the correct
frame of race

where the maths and numbers move from bookmaker to punter.

Cheers

Mick

Horses Who Switch Stables

Horses Switching Stables – A Good Or Bad Thing?

As a punter one often looks for little clues pointing to a good bet.
One point that often attracts interest is when a horse is switched from one trainer to another.

Picture a young soccer player for example who had been with a lower league club
but who more recently switched sides and had the benefit of tuition from the likes of Arsne Wenger.
Would you expect him to improve his performance level a touch?

With horse racing switching to a new trainer can indeed have some impact.
However I feel myself it is perhaps point a bit like first time blinkers that may get
over reported and over bet as a result.

The reality is that a switch in trainer most often does not lead to a big gamble landed.

However some trainers are actually very very adapt at getting an improved run from a new horse in their care.
One untested theory could be their attitude.
eg do they send it out quickly to judge what it can do or do they train and improve
privately before unleashing the improved performer in a real race.

There is huge performance variation between trainers in this zone.

The obvious question to ask then is which trainers are very profitable to bet
when they have a new to them horse running for them and which should be avoided
by backers like the plague or layed on the betting Exchanges such as Betfair or betdaq.

This question has been answered for national hunt horses in an informative free article
over at PunterProfits.

Well worth a  read.

See Horses Who Switch Stables

Research Into Grade 1 Hurdles

There are 16 Grade 1 hurdles races in each year’s racing calander.

Ten of them are run during the Cheltenham and Antree Festivals.

They are a niche of racing worth examining closer.

Dave Renham has dug into many years worth of past races to try and discover profitable angles.

See his findings  here Grade One Hurdles

Nb the above pages requires a free account on his punterprofits site to read everything.  Free access there also gets you access to many more bits of horse racing research.