Paddy Power Cheltenham Gold Cup

This below was extracted from the free newsletter over at Guy Ward’s Mathematician Betting site.

It contains some useful insight into today’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

If you want to join that free newsletter youself you can do so here

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#1 New Ante Post Section..what’s that all about then?

Well not long range ante post tips but I guess a self thinker

reader may self choose to make a self decided ante post bet

any time they want.

From Guy’s point of view it is more so about research

preparation work on upcoming major races.

Most of his focus on any given day will be on that day’s

normal racing. But if he can snatch a bit of free time

he will put it to good use with advance research for a major race.

The November Handicap stats I sent you last week were

extracted from this new Ante Post section.

This week I have for you his thoughts into Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup.

You can see from the dates below that full members have been getting it in

dribs and drabs from Tuesday Nov 3rd over time as Guy completes various

angles of research.

Note below how his positive and negative list

builds up over time. It’s probably worth saying that Guy himself

would not always totally blinker himself to only his positives.

A mild negative stat can be overlooked if market odds

are excessive and offer good value.

Saturday’s message will contain his final day of race opinion

once final runners, going day of race market odds etc are

more firmed up.

 


Tuesday 3rd

A n t e P o s t

New Column

Won’t be filling it up with long range bets

I want to start the countdown to the Paddy Power

Building a list of positives and negatives

Cheltenham Saturday 14th November

Paddy Power Gold Cup

8/1 Kings Palace 10/1 Monetaire, Boondooma

12/1 Cocktails At Dawn, Present View, 12/1 Irish Cavalier

12/1 Johns Spirit, 16/1 Oscar Rock, Thomas Crapper,

20/1 Buywise, Clarcam 20/1 Ptit Zig, Sound Investment

20/1 Splash of Ginge, 20/1 Taquin Du Seuil, 20/1 Annacotty

25/1 Art Mauresque – 33/1 Bar

KING’S PALACE – David Pipe

Current Race favourite

Breeding Stats Positive

He is a 7yo seasonal debutant

He has 4 Chase starts

Recent winners had the following chase runs

5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7

I’d have been happier with another Chase run

Gets extra points for Cheltenham Form

5 winners aged 7 were seasonal debutants

They were Males with 3 5 6 8 12 previous chase runs

The horse with 3 Chase runs won the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Again that extra chase run would have helped

Another issue to consider is the big field

How robust is he and how will he cope

Verdict – Positive Profile

MONETAIRE – David Pipe

Seasonal debutant aged 9 with 12 Chase starts

Cyfor Malta 2002 had the same profile

He was a past winner of this race though

He had achieved a lot more than Monetaire

His career best Racing Post Rating over fences is 146

If you look at the last 15 winners and their career best

Monetaire comes out as Joint 11th best of the 15

Not keen he is sired by a Flat sire

Not keen he started life on the flat

He scrapes through my breeding stats

But only 1 horse (The Last Derby) gets him there

I find his breeding profile unsatisfactory

Verdict – Unsatisfactory


Wed 4th

BOONDOOMA 10/1

Dr Richard Newland

BOONDOOMA has been out and won at Cheltenham

He has 4 Chase runs

Recent winners had 5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7 runs

Would have been safer if he had managed 5 chase runs

19 of the last 21 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form

BOONDOOMA only has Grade 3 form

That is another concern about his profile

There were 3 recent 8yo winners

They won from marks of 150 137 146

BOONDOOMA has to defy a higher mark of 154

That’s a worry when you consider no Grade 1-2 form

The 3 winners aged 8 had 8 10 7 previous Chase runs

BOONDOOMA only has 4

Look at the 7 winners that ran this season

They all ran within the past 17 days

Horses running this season absent 18+ days are 0-59

BOONDOOMA fails that albeit only just

Gets Positives for a Cheltenham win

Gets Positives for a Career best run last time

But he has to step up from a 2m 5f race

For me there are too many holes in his profile

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Current Negatives

Monetaire

Boondooma


Sunday 8th

Paddy Power Gold Cup

ANNACOTTY was gambled yesterday

Several firms cut him from 20/1 to 16/1-14/1

One very significant positive for me

Is he has upgraded stables this season

Martin Keighley to Alan King is a good upgrade

Most recent winners were lighter raced over fences

Go back a decade or so and some were like him

He does not fit the ideal range of 5-12 Chase starts

That said the 5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7

Had 3 5 6 8 12 previous chase runs

ANNACOTTY with 13 Chase runs is worth considering

He is a Grade 1 winner

He is a Grade 3 winner at Cheltenham

His Numbers certainly show enough class

Alan King has nominated the race as a target

I certainly wouldn’t rule him out

His last 2 seasonal debuts were defeats when favourite

That wouldn’t put me off to be honest

Has to be in the Positives

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire

Boondooma


Tuesday 10th

Looking at the 6 year olds now

IRISH CAVALIER

PTIT ZIG

LA VATICANE

There are only 3 potential runners this year aged 6

I don’t think a 6yo will win it this year

Only 5 winners aged 6 since 1994

Horses aged 6 have a 4-46 record since 1997

The 4 recent winners aged 6

Won from handicap marks of 139 139 136 138

PTIT ZIG has to defy a mark of 159

IRISH CAVALIER has to defy a mark of 156

There handicap marks are far higher than any 6yo winner

If you look at 6 year olds rated 140 or more

All 27 that raced were beaten

There was a 148 rated winner aged 6 in 1996

He had considerably less weight though

LA VATICANE has a lower rating

She is a seasonal debutant mare though

She is surely too inexperienced with just 2 starts

Only 1 recent winner had under 5 Chase starts

That ended up a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner

I just feel this years 6 year olds have too much on

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma

Irish Cavalier -Ptit Zig – La Vaticane


Wednesday 11th

Yesterday I showed how Saturday’s Badger Ales

Chase was dominated by lightly raced Chasers.

The last 9 winners of this race

Had the following chase runs before

5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5

None of the last 9 winners had 10 or more Chase runs

Horses that had 10 + Chase runs were 0-70

I think we need to take that hint

There are 28 horses left in this race

They have the following Chase runs

7 11 19 8 5 4 4 6 17 12 7 14 8 10

13 6 12 11 8 7 12 23 7 15 28 8 2 2

I think we must stay with horses with under 10 Chase runs

This leads to the following horses being rejected

DOUBLE ROSS 17 Chase runs

JOHNS SPIRIT 19 Chase runs

CROCO BAY 13 Chase runs

NEXT SENSATION 14 Chase runs

BENNYS MIST 23 Chase runs

TURN OVER SIVOLA 15 Chase runs

ASTRACAD 28 Chase runs

ANNACOTTY also has 13 Chase starts

I already have him on the positives list

I am now more inclined to put him on the negatives list

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma – Double Ross – Croco Bay

Irish Cavalier – Turn Over Sivola – La Vaticane – John’s Spirit

Next Sensation – Ptit Zig – Astracad – Bennys Mist

Annacotty is now on both lists


Thursday 12th

Yesterday I opposed horses with over 10 Chase runs

DARNA should have been in that list

I don’t want a 9yo debutant anyway

I don’t want a very poor recent run

PRESENT VIEW pulled up in the last 2 weeks

EASTER DAY pulled up in the last 2 weeks

SPLASH OF GINGE ran too badly too recently

LITTLE JON ran too badly too recently

GENEROUS RANSOM had a poor last run over hurdles

No past winner ran recently over hurdles

He also lacks backclass

Every past winner had form in a Graded race before

20 of the last 22 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form

GENEROUS RANSOM does not have that

CLOUD CREEPER lacks Graded form as well

THE CLOCK LEARY won’t run and is too inexperienced

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma – Double Ross – Croco Bay

Irish Cavalier – Turn Over Sivola – La Vaticane – John’s Spirit

Next Sensation – Ptit Zig – Astracad – Bennys Mist – Darna

Easter Day – Present View – Generous Ransom – Cloud Creeper

The horses we have yet to reject are below

KING’S PLACE – ANACOTTY – ART MAURESQUE

SOUND INVESTMENT – SHANPALLAS – BUYWISE

OSCAR ROCK – COCKTAILS AT DAWN


Friday 13th

The Final Declarations are in

There are 22 runners

No idea if this process we are doing will work

I want to tidy up our shortlist with 24hrs to go

SHANPALLAS is rejected

He has not looked like a Paddy Power winner recently

SOUND INVESTMENT is also rejected as well

He has 11 Chase runs more than the last 9 winners

He has Topweight as well

His ratings task is the same as Al Ferof in 2012

Thats a 7yo winning off 159

Al Ferof was a multiple Grade 1 winner

He had won a Supreme Novice hurdle as well

SOUND INVESTMENT is just a Grade 2 winner

He has never raced at Cheltenham before

Surely asking a lot to win off topweight

Without any experience on the track

ANACOTTY has been a positive and negative

I have to make a judgement call with him

I am taking him off the shortlist

13 Chase runs is a lot for a seasonal debutant

24hr Shortlist

OSCAR ROCK – I’d prefer a recent run + track form

COCKTAILS AT DAWN – Has positives + negatives

KING’S PLACE – Profile fine

ART MAURESQUE – We can no longer rule out 5yo’s

BUYWISE – Close enough to the past 8yo winners

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