Paddy Power Gold Cup At Cheltenham

Paddy Power Cheltenham Gold Cup

This below was extracted from the free newsletter over at Guy Ward’s Mathematician Betting site.

It contains some useful insight into today’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

If you want to join that free newsletter youself you can do so here

==> Free Horse Racing Tips

=======================================================

#1 New Ante Post Section..what’s that all about then?

Well not long range ante post tips but I guess a self thinker

reader may self choose to make a self decided ante post bet

any time they want.

From Guy’s point of view it is more so about research

preparation work on upcoming major races.

Most of his focus on any given day will be on that day’s

normal racing. But if he can snatch a bit of free time

he will put it to good use with advance research for a major race.

The November Handicap stats I sent you last week were

extracted from this new Ante Post section.

This week I have for you his thoughts into Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup.

You can see from the dates below that full members have been getting it in

dribs and drabs from Tuesday Nov 3rd over time as Guy completes various

angles of research.

Note below how his positive and negative list

builds up over time. It’s probably worth saying that Guy himself

would not always totally blinker himself to only his positives.

A mild negative stat can be overlooked if market odds

are excessive and offer good value.

Saturday’s message will contain his final day of race opinion

once final runners, going day of race market odds etc are

more firmed up.

 


Tuesday 3rd

A n t e P o s t

New Column

Won’t be filling it up with long range bets

I want to start the countdown to the Paddy Power

Building a list of positives and negatives

Cheltenham Saturday 14th November

Paddy Power Gold Cup

8/1 Kings Palace 10/1 Monetaire, Boondooma

12/1 Cocktails At Dawn, Present View, 12/1 Irish Cavalier

12/1 Johns Spirit, 16/1 Oscar Rock, Thomas Crapper,

20/1 Buywise, Clarcam 20/1 Ptit Zig, Sound Investment

20/1 Splash of Ginge, 20/1 Taquin Du Seuil, 20/1 Annacotty

25/1 Art Mauresque – 33/1 Bar

KING’S PALACE – David Pipe

Current Race favourite

Breeding Stats Positive

He is a 7yo seasonal debutant

He has 4 Chase starts

Recent winners had the following chase runs

5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7

I’d have been happier with another Chase run

Gets extra points for Cheltenham Form

5 winners aged 7 were seasonal debutants

They were Males with 3 5 6 8 12 previous chase runs

The horse with 3 Chase runs won the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Again that extra chase run would have helped

Another issue to consider is the big field

How robust is he and how will he cope

Verdict – Positive Profile

MONETAIRE – David Pipe

Seasonal debutant aged 9 with 12 Chase starts

Cyfor Malta 2002 had the same profile

He was a past winner of this race though

He had achieved a lot more than Monetaire

His career best Racing Post Rating over fences is 146

If you look at the last 15 winners and their career best

Monetaire comes out as Joint 11th best of the 15

Not keen he is sired by a Flat sire

Not keen he started life on the flat

He scrapes through my breeding stats

But only 1 horse (The Last Derby) gets him there

I find his breeding profile unsatisfactory

Verdict – Unsatisfactory


Wed 4th

BOONDOOMA 10/1

Dr Richard Newland

BOONDOOMA has been out and won at Cheltenham

He has 4 Chase runs

Recent winners had 5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7 runs

Would have been safer if he had managed 5 chase runs

19 of the last 21 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form

BOONDOOMA only has Grade 3 form

That is another concern about his profile

There were 3 recent 8yo winners

They won from marks of 150 137 146

BOONDOOMA has to defy a higher mark of 154

That’s a worry when you consider no Grade 1-2 form

The 3 winners aged 8 had 8 10 7 previous Chase runs

BOONDOOMA only has 4

Look at the 7 winners that ran this season

They all ran within the past 17 days

Horses running this season absent 18+ days are 0-59

BOONDOOMA fails that albeit only just

Gets Positives for a Cheltenham win

Gets Positives for a Career best run last time

But he has to step up from a 2m 5f race

For me there are too many holes in his profile

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Current Negatives

Monetaire

Boondooma


Sunday 8th

Paddy Power Gold Cup

ANNACOTTY was gambled yesterday

Several firms cut him from 20/1 to 16/1-14/1

One very significant positive for me

Is he has upgraded stables this season

Martin Keighley to Alan King is a good upgrade

Most recent winners were lighter raced over fences

Go back a decade or so and some were like him

He does not fit the ideal range of 5-12 Chase starts

That said the 5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7

Had 3 5 6 8 12 previous chase runs

ANNACOTTY with 13 Chase runs is worth considering

He is a Grade 1 winner

He is a Grade 3 winner at Cheltenham

His Numbers certainly show enough class

Alan King has nominated the race as a target

I certainly wouldn’t rule him out

His last 2 seasonal debuts were defeats when favourite

That wouldn’t put me off to be honest

Has to be in the Positives

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire

Boondooma


Tuesday 10th

Looking at the 6 year olds now

IRISH CAVALIER

PTIT ZIG

LA VATICANE

There are only 3 potential runners this year aged 6

I don’t think a 6yo will win it this year

Only 5 winners aged 6 since 1994

Horses aged 6 have a 4-46 record since 1997

The 4 recent winners aged 6

Won from handicap marks of 139 139 136 138

PTIT ZIG has to defy a mark of 159

IRISH CAVALIER has to defy a mark of 156

There handicap marks are far higher than any 6yo winner

If you look at 6 year olds rated 140 or more

All 27 that raced were beaten

There was a 148 rated winner aged 6 in 1996

He had considerably less weight though

LA VATICANE has a lower rating

She is a seasonal debutant mare though

She is surely too inexperienced with just 2 starts

Only 1 recent winner had under 5 Chase starts

That ended up a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner

I just feel this years 6 year olds have too much on

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma

Irish Cavalier -Ptit Zig – La Vaticane


Wednesday 11th

Yesterday I showed how Saturday’s Badger Ales

Chase was dominated by lightly raced Chasers.

The last 9 winners of this race

Had the following chase runs before

5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5

None of the last 9 winners had 10 or more Chase runs

Horses that had 10 + Chase runs were 0-70

I think we need to take that hint

There are 28 horses left in this race

They have the following Chase runs

7 11 19 8 5 4 4 6 17 12 7 14 8 10

13 6 12 11 8 7 12 23 7 15 28 8 2 2

I think we must stay with horses with under 10 Chase runs

This leads to the following horses being rejected

DOUBLE ROSS 17 Chase runs

JOHNS SPIRIT 19 Chase runs

CROCO BAY 13 Chase runs

NEXT SENSATION 14 Chase runs

BENNYS MIST 23 Chase runs

TURN OVER SIVOLA 15 Chase runs

ASTRACAD 28 Chase runs

ANNACOTTY also has 13 Chase starts

I already have him on the positives list

I am now more inclined to put him on the negatives list

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma – Double Ross – Croco Bay

Irish Cavalier – Turn Over Sivola – La Vaticane – John’s Spirit

Next Sensation – Ptit Zig – Astracad – Bennys Mist

Annacotty is now on both lists


Thursday 12th

Yesterday I opposed horses with over 10 Chase runs

DARNA should have been in that list

I don’t want a 9yo debutant anyway

I don’t want a very poor recent run

PRESENT VIEW pulled up in the last 2 weeks

EASTER DAY pulled up in the last 2 weeks

SPLASH OF GINGE ran too badly too recently

LITTLE JON ran too badly too recently

GENEROUS RANSOM had a poor last run over hurdles

No past winner ran recently over hurdles

He also lacks backclass

Every past winner had form in a Graded race before

20 of the last 22 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form

GENEROUS RANSOM does not have that

CLOUD CREEPER lacks Graded form as well

THE CLOCK LEARY won’t run and is too inexperienced

Current Positives

King’s Palace

Annacotty

Current Negatives

Monetaire – Boondooma – Double Ross – Croco Bay

Irish Cavalier – Turn Over Sivola – La Vaticane – John’s Spirit

Next Sensation – Ptit Zig – Astracad – Bennys Mist – Darna

Easter Day – Present View – Generous Ransom – Cloud Creeper

The horses we have yet to reject are below

KING’S PLACE – ANACOTTY – ART MAURESQUE

SOUND INVESTMENT – SHANPALLAS – BUYWISE

OSCAR ROCK – COCKTAILS AT DAWN


Friday 13th

The Final Declarations are in

There are 22 runners

No idea if this process we are doing will work

I want to tidy up our shortlist with 24hrs to go

SHANPALLAS is rejected

He has not looked like a Paddy Power winner recently

SOUND INVESTMENT is also rejected as well

He has 11 Chase runs more than the last 9 winners

He has Topweight as well

His ratings task is the same as Al Ferof in 2012

Thats a 7yo winning off 159

Al Ferof was a multiple Grade 1 winner

He had won a Supreme Novice hurdle as well

SOUND INVESTMENT is just a Grade 2 winner

He has never raced at Cheltenham before

Surely asking a lot to win off topweight

Without any experience on the track

ANACOTTY has been a positive and negative

I have to make a judgement call with him

I am taking him off the shortlist

13 Chase runs is a lot for a seasonal debutant

24hr Shortlist

OSCAR ROCK – I’d prefer a recent run + track form

COCKTAILS AT DAWN – Has positives + negatives

KING’S PLACE – Profile fine

ART MAURESQUE – We can no longer rule out 5yo’s

BUYWISE – Close enough to the past 8yo winners

Racing Tip For Kempton

Our old fried Guy Ward aka The Mathematician
is back with us again with his insight on one of
this afternoons races at Kempton.

One thing I know Guy is pround about is the fact that
he has clients who have been with him not for months
but for years and years and years.

This is almost unheard of in the racing tipster world.

If at all interested in his service proper contact
me here at sports-betting-blog and I will see if I can
wrangle a bit of an introducty discount of deal for you.

Over to Guy for today’s horse racing tip

============================

Lingfield has been abandoned but I suppose it
is a bonus that Kempton has survived. That is
the only English card today. For paying clients
I have previewed the first six races there only
leaving the finale alone a race that looks a bit
too dangerous.
Read the rest of this entry

Betting Advice For Ascot

Guy’s good run came unstuck last weekend.

He finally had a losing weekend after five winning weekend’s in a row for us here.

Read below his suggested betting advice for today.

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A s c o t   2.35

4/1 Smad Place, 5/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Ciceron
6/1 Shoreacres, 13/2 Joseph Lister, 7/1 Royal Charm
12/1 Pateese, 16/1 Orzare, 16/1 Rowan Tiger
20/1 Tara Rose.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* Statistically there are only 5 renewals to consider
* 5 year olds have  yet to win this race.
* SMAD PLACE wouldnt interest me because of that
* Especially not first time out when not 100% fit
* JOSEPH LISTER is also rejected as a 5yo
* He looks short of runs with just 3 hurdle races
* You would have thought lightly raced hurdlers are best
* Thats not the case in this race
* Winners had 16 12 32 20 17 previous hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* ROWAN TIGER is out with 4 runs from a Novice Hurdle
* A BRIDGE TOO FAR has only had 6 hurdle starts
* Without Graded backclass I dont see a strong case
* TARA ROSE – Rejected as a mare with just 4 runs
* ORZARE wouldnt interest me first time out
* ROYAL CHARM doesnt offer me enough
* Not keen that he comes from a Chase
* Not sure he is fit enough
* Not convinced he is weighted to win anyway
* CICERON – I thought he had a fair chance
* CICERON is potentially a saver
* PATEESE – Comes here after well beaten last time
* He had excuses and should strip fitter
* Not long ago he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle
* I think he is worth a saver

S e l e c t i o n

SHOREACRES

I like the chance of SHOREACRES. He has had 2 Hurdle
starts since switching from Chasing. He never really took
to fences but did manage a win from 8 Chase starts. Look
back before he went Chasing. This horse managed a 4th
in the Champion Bumper and a decent 7th in a Supreme
Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. That shows he has plenty
of class. He then went Chasing with limited success but a
couple of hurdle runs recently shows me he can win this.
He does have fewer hurdle runs than all past winners did
but he is plenty experienced because of his chasing races.
I think his last two runs show him in top form and with
a strong form chance. He likes right handed tracks and
is very fit and it’s hard to see him being far away here.

Selection

SHOREACRES Some 7/1 and 13/2 was available earlier when full members got this.
11/2 now top bookmaker price at Ladbrokes, Bet365 and VC
Each way I would suggest

Or alternately if you like bet it on the nose with a saver bet on
PATEESE at 10/1 Bet365 Betfred sky Ladbrokes BoyleSports

For more info on my private service see here ==> Betting Advice

.

Ayr Gold Cup Tip

AYR GOLD CUP TIP

This comes from Guy aka The Mathematician

To Visit Guys site click here ==> Horse Betting Advice

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I nailed my colours to Johnny Mudball’s mast in Fridays full member message.
Quite surprised Pricewise have tipped him too today.
I’m not sure there is any value in the price now
but full members would have backed him at 11/1 and 12/1 on Friday.

Arguably with pricewise coming in today and smashing the price down a touch
I should have picked a different race for you today here on the free blog.

I did get a few emails seeking thoughts on the Ayr Gold Cup however
so thought it would be the most popular race to cover here today for you.

Find Current Best Odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-09-18/ayr/15-20/betting/

Personally looking at the stats for these races
I think IRISH HEARTBEAT has a better profile than
anything in either race and I am slightly more hopeful
that he will win the Silver Cup at 2.15pm. I plan a bit
on him around 9/1 or 10/1 but low stakes in this race.

This is my friday message on the Ayr Gold Cup

AYR 3.20

William Hill (Ayr) Gold Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

11/2 Poet’s Place, 7/1 Hawkeyethenoo, 8/1 Victoire De Lyphar 10/1 Genki, 12/1 Jonny Mudball, Redford, 14/1 Evens And Odds 16/1 Tajneed, 16/1 Rileyskeepingfaith, 16/1 Hitchens 20/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 20/1 Jimmy Styles, 20/1 Knot In Wood 20/1 Signor Peltro, 20/1 Noverre To Go, 25/1 Damien 25/1 Parisian Pyramid, 25/1 Striking Spirit, 25/1 Partner 25/1 Prime Exhibit, Barney McGrew, 33/1 Castles In The Air 33/1 Quest For Success, 33/1 Flipando, 33/1 Damika
33/1 Arganil, 33/1 Johannes

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 18 renewals of this race since 1992
* I have used the 18 renewals of this race
* I have used 156 similar Class 2 handicaps
* These 156 races came between August and October

THE DRAW

Most are saying High. It is the safest choice. Nobody has any clue.
They were saying “High” last year yet the low numbers had it in the 3 Gold Silver and Bronze Cup races.
Even if there is a bias some belive the pace of the race matters more.
I dont have a strong view. My research is based on Handicaps only at
Ayr at this trip and I looked at every Handicap here since 2003 with 15 or more runners.
What that tells me is Stall 1 has a poor record. It also tells me horses drawn 23 or higher are 1-85 and I
would be very wary about the very high draws. Overall though I intend to ignore the draw at this stage and see what looks best.

NEGATIVES

* VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR is a Negative for me
* He is 3 and has just 3 runs this year and a 50 day break
* There were 2 winners aged 3 in this race
* They both had twice as many runs this year as he does
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3 runs that season were 1-82
* Those with 5 + runs had a 0-69 record and he has 9 runs
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3 runs that season were 3-153
* Those absent a month with 5 + career runs were 0-50
* They say he is a Group horse. He will need to be
* Drawn 24 may not be the help some think it is
* VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR doesnt come out well enough
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Horses aged 8 or more struggle in these races
* They won 7 races in a 7-275 record
* None were absent more than a month
* KNOT IN WOOD fails that
* Those aged 8 or more with under 8 runs that year are 1-104
* KNOT IN WOOD fails that as well
* FLIPANDO is too old aged 9 to be dropping from 7f
* BARNEY MCGREW is all wrong aged 7 from a Group 1 race
* TAJNEED is 7 and has not run in 2 weeks
* Horses with that profile were 6-255
* Those with under 8 runs that season were 0-120
* TAJNEED only just fails that with 7 runs but he fails it
* Those without Group Class form were 0-86
* TAJNEED also lacks Group class form as well
* Horses aged 7 winning 2+ weeks ago were 0-18
* TAJNEED has an unsatisfactory profile
* He is a Ripon specialist and has a career high mark
* Since 1986 horses aged 7 or more are 1-100 in this race
* DAMIKA is 7 and has to come from a 7f race
* There were 2 winners in 156 races doing that
* Those beaten more than 4 + lengths last time were 0-45
* He has a career high mark and this may be too much for him
* JOHANNES is underraced for a 7 year old
* Drawn one I will be shocked if he wins this
* August-September-October has seen 156 of these races
* Exposed horses absent over a month have a weak 5-297 record
* In this race these horses have a 0-60 record
* Those without Group class form were just 1-125
* KALDOUN KINGDOM fails this and looks weak
* EVENS AND ODDS is exposed and absent a month
* Horses in this race with that profile were 0-60
* In 156 similar races they were 5-297 but none like him
* Those that placed 1-2-3 last time out were 0-69
* JIMMY STYLES is exposed absent over a month
* It worries me he has just 4 runs this season
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH is exposed and absent over a month
* No 4 year olds were exposed and absent as long as that
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH looks unsafe to me
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses from Group races had a 2-60 record
* None were aged 6 or more like GENKI
* Exposed horses trying this were 1-38
* None were as lightly raced this season as he is
* He is trying to do what Advanced did in 2007
* Thats to come from the Haydock Group 1 sprint
* Advanced was an unexposed 4 year old though
* I cant match GENKI to any of the 156 winners
* He has a tough weight of 9st 8lbs to overcome
* Horses in this race with 9st 7lbs or more struggled
* Those with 13 + runs and that weight were 0-58
* GENKI doesnt appeal much to me
* CASTLES IN THE AIR is exposed and from a 7f Listed race
* He looks unsafe and I cant find a winner like him
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS is an exposed 5yo
* He has no Group form and comes from a 6f handicap
* Horses doing that within 2 weeks had a 1-85 record
* That winner ran much better than he did last time
* He also had much less weight and more runs this year
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS doesnt come out like any winners
* STRIKING SPIRIT has exactly the same profile
* I see him as weak as well
* HAWKEYETHENOO has been absent 56 days
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses absent 7 weeks or more like him were 11-265
* Those that were exposed were 1-110
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that as he is exposed
* The only winner managing it was older
* He had more backclass as well
* In 156 races last time winners with 13 + runs won 58 races
* None were absent 7 weeks or more like him (0-32)
* Those absent over a Month were only 1-104
* That winner was an unexposed 4 year old
* HAWKEYETHENOO doesnt look right to me
* PARISIAN PYRAMID is an exposed 4yo
* He has no form higher than Class 2 and hasnt run in 2 weeks
* In 156 races horses with that profile were 2-74
* Those like him beaten last time were 0-64
* I cant match him to any of the 156 winners
* PARTNER is difficult to read coming from Ireland
* He is an unexposed 4yo absent over a month
* There were 3 winners like that in 156 races
* Those beaten 4 + lengths with that profile were 0-34
*  PARTNER hasnt really shown enough to consider
* HITCHENS is an exposed 5 year old
* He won a 6f Handicap last time out
* Horses with that profile had a 0-26 record
* Exposed 5 year olds that were 1-2-3 last time were 6-157
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 1-77
* Those with under 7 runs that season were 0-41
* HITCHENS only has 5 runs and is poor
* DAMIEN is an unexposed 4yo from a 7f handicap
* 2 of the 156 winners had that profile
* Neither of them won this race
* Neither had form in Group class before like him
* I didnt see enough I liked about him

POSSIBLES

* SIGNOR PELTRO is a 7yo
* Since 1986 horses aged 7 or more are 1-100 in this race
* I looked at 156 similar races in August-September-October
* Horses aged 7 or more from 6f handicaps in a month won races
* Those with No form in Group Class races were 6-141
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 1-62
* SIGNOR PELTRO just lacks enough runs this year
* He has a career high mark of 100 as well
* I dont think he will win but I feel he is a Possible
* ARGANIL looks shortlistable at a huge price
* He is hard to fancy admittedy
* He was only beaten 4.5 lengths in this race last year
* This year he has a better preparation and a lower mark
* ARANGIL is very similar to the 33/1 winner in 2004
* He came from well beaten in the Portland
* He also had Group form and was the same age
* ARANGIL has to be shortlisted at a big price
* His biggest problem may be his draw in stall 2
* PRIME EXHIBIT has a complicated profile
* I found 2 winners of similar races but none of this race
* 5 year olds with 13-20 runs and an absence of 7 + weeks
* I cant make him a negative so I’d shortlisting him
* REDFORD comes from an 8f race
* In 156 of these races there were 3 winners doing that
* 2 of them came in this race as well
* However they were all unexposed
* Exposed horses like REDFORD from 8f races were 0-40
* The horses from 8f races in this race were aged 3 and 4
* REDFORD is 5 and I cant match him to a winner
* With 1 run less I could so I would respect him
* POET´S PLACE is very hard to assess
* Being 5 with only 7 career starts makes him tricky to read
* Horses with that profile won 3 races
* Those with No Group class form had a 1-1 record
* That winner had less weight and a long absence
* He didnt win last time either
* 2 Portland winners have won this race
* They were both younger though confusing things more
* Overall I would play on the safe side and shortlist him
* NOVERRE TO GO comes from the Stewards Cup
* There were 2 winners of this race doing that
* Both were unexposed 4 year olds like him
* They had 10 and 11 runs and he has 16 runs
* Thats close enough for me
* Unexposed 4 year olds won this race 6 times
* 2 of the last 3 winners were unexposed 4 year olds
* With fast ground NOVERRE TO GO could go close

STRONG PROFILE

JONNY MUDBALL

* JONNY MUDBALL has a very smart profile
* JONNY MUDBALL is 4 and absent 49 days
* 4 year olds absent over a Month won 9 races
* Those with 7-12 runs like him won 5 races
* Those with Class 2 form made that a 5-14 record
* Extract those that were not beaten 4 + lengths last time
* Those that came from a 6f handicap had a 4-5 record
* Those that started under 33/1 had a 4-4 record
* Horses with his profile had a 4-4 record
* The 1996 and 2001 winners of this race had this profile
* They both came from the Stewards cup like him
* He is very similar to 1996 winner Coastal Bluff

Find Current Best Odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-09-18/ayr/15-20/betting/

Horse Betting This Saturday

Mathematician Betting  have recently introduced a few changes to their full member service messages.

I thought that this Saturday instead of just pulling out one small section of the message for the free blog we would give you the whole thing.

You can see the clear cut advised bet at the top under the Daily Recommendations Section.

Also there are extra races assessed with a lot of stats and info aimed at providing a bit of extra help to those who like to make their own final horse betting or horse laying  decissions.

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Mathematician 753

Daily Recommendation

Stratford 2.20

RUSSIAN GEORGE 5/2

Win Bet

11/4 Stan James – BoyleSports- Bet365 – Blue Square
5/2  VC – Betfred -Sky
Some firms have not yet priced up.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS

I hope a few of you are on the same double as me today after Kinigi won yesterday. Those that had that bet will now be on RED CADEAUX and KANSAI SPIRIT at prices between 25/1 and 33/1 depending on what odds you got. Win lose or draw it is a great position to be in so all we need now is some luck.

It is a strange Saturday. There are 5 meetings and 3 of these look rough. I can’t see much at Kempton and rarely commit to anything there. It’s dissapointing that on an 8 race card at THIRSK I can’t find more than 2 races to preview. That said I have problems at this track and it usually gets the better of me and little point in trying to tackle races there that look  too difficult so I’ve settled on the two races. STRATFORD’s thrown up one decent race I like.WOLVERHAMPTON has nothing aside from a negative so HAYDOCK provides most of the previews today and overall there are just 7 of them.

I’m Leaving Thirsk alone today. I thought about having a
bit on Select Commitee in the 4.40pm but deep down I am
sceptical I have enough negatives in the race. I’m locked in with yesterdays double in the 3.05pm so I am letting both those doubles run and laying both back in running at Evens. I wouldnt put anyone off an interest bet in the Group 1 race at Haydock 3.35pm and Kinsgate Native each way but thats all it would be for me and I am not that bothered about the  race. Like many races today it’s a bitting and bobbing day.

The stand out bet for me has always been at Stratford in a
Novice Hurdle at 2.20pm. Its the first race in the message
so we will know our fate early. RUSSIAN GEORGE has to
be my main bet today. I have a favourite who has a poor
profile that I want to take on. RUSSIAN GEORGE is like
24 horses running in similar races and these 24 finished as
follows – 1 2 1 5 1 3 1 2 F 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 5 1 2 F 1 so given that he isnt even favourite he has to be the best bet.

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REVIEW OF LAST MESSAGE

No selection yesterday but KINIGI the only horse I had
in the message won. I hope most people either backed
him or had the same doubles as me. Some did both and I
wish I had now. Nothing official though so a blank day
but on a 1 race day it was nice to have 1 winner on it.

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T O D A Y ‘S  R A C I N G

STRATFORD 2.20

Lafarge GTEC Plasterboard Solutions
Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+) 2m110y

11/4 Tout Regulier, 7/2 Russian George, 7/2 Unleashed
4/1 Saltagioo, 12/1 Addwaitya, 12/1 That´s Some Milan
16/1 Chadwell Spring, 20/1 Celtic Dragon 20/1 Hector Spectre 100/1 High Dee Jay.

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
* I looked at 529 similar races at this time of year
* Thats 529 Novice Hurdles at 16f and 17f July-September
* RUSSIAN GEORGE has the best profile
* TOUT REGULIER may be worth opposing
* TOUT REGULIER pulled up in a handicap 13 days ago
* Thats hardly the greatest preparation but it’s more than that
* Horses that came from Handicap Hurdles won 48 races
* Those that came from 2m 5f or more were 0-22 though
* That makes TOUT REGULIER unsafe
* TOUT REGULIER is also a Mare
* Female horses like her coming from 2m 5f or more were 4-89
* Those with 7 or more career starts were 0-26 and she has 14
* Mares aged 6 or more from 2m 5f or more had a 0-52 record
* TOUT REGULIER fails both those angles
* At the very least she has to be unsafe back in distance
* UNLEASHED pulled up in a Maiden hurdle last time
* Horses doing that in the last 3 months were 1-80
* He may pop in but his last run makes him look weak
* SALTAGIOO has plenty to prove after a poor last run
* RUSSIAN GEORGE should be favourite here
* He isnt as others are rated higher in the race
* Thats a worry but it ensures a better price
* RUSSIAN GEORGE has this profile
* Horses aged 4 winning a Novice Hurdle last time
* Running within a Month
* No form in Class 2 or higher before
* Having between 3-6 runs
* There were 24 horses with that profile and 13 won
* The 24 finished in these positions
* 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 F F
* That looks a serious record
* It’s why RUSSIAN GEORGE has to be the selection

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HAYDOCK 2.30

Betfred “The Bonus King” Be Friendly Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 5f

6/1 Golden Destiny, 9/1 Anglezarke, 10/1 Courageous
10/1 Strike Up The Band, 12/1 Archers Road, 12/1 Favourite Girl 12/1 Haajes, Medici Time, Pavershooz, 12/1 Secret Millionaire 14/1 Cheveton, 14/1 Confessional, 14/1 Lucky Numbers 14/1 Reignier, Desert Phantom, 20/1 Piscean, 25/1 Solemn.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* There has been 57 similar races at this time of year
* GOLDEN DESTINY is a 4yo filly
* Fillies aged 4 have a 0-43 record in the 57 races
* Fillies only won 6 of the 57 races
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 2-66
* Those like GOLDEN DESTINY from handicaps were 0-35
* None carried her weight either
* GOLDEN DESTINY is not right statistically
* ANGLEZARKE is a 4yo filly
* We know Fillies aged 4 are 0-43 in these races
* Fillies with 9 or more career starts were 3-118
* Those without at least 9 runs that year are 1-71
* That winner came from a Group race
* ANGLEZARKE lacks relevant handicap form as well
* FAVOURITE GIRL is a 4yo filly
* We know Fillies aged 4 are 0-43 in these races
* All fillies like her from 6f races were 0-43
* On a career high mark  FAVOURITE GIRL looks weak
* ARCHERS ROAD is 3 and has 19 career starts
* Horses aged 3 with 13 or more runs were 3-62
* None had under 6 runs that season
* ARCHERS ROAD has only 3 runs
* None of them were absent as long as he is
* ARCHERS ROAD has plenty to prove for a 3yo

* Horses absent 7 + weeks have a 2-65 record
* Those aged 4 or more with that absence were 0-38
* DESERT PHANTOM fails that
* No 4yo like DESERT PHANTOM won absent a month
* None of the 57 winners came from 7f or further
* LUCKY NUMBERS is hard to fancy coming from 8f
* Not with a career high mark and no wins above Class 4
* SOLEMN is exposed and lost by 10 + lengths last time
* Only 1 of the 57 winners did that
* That horse had Group 2 class form and didnt run recently
* SOLEMN lacks that and looks weak on a career high mark
* He has never won out of a Class 4 race yet
* MEDICI TIME is an exposed 5yo from a 5f race
* He has no pattern class form before
* Horses with that profile were 3-40
* All 3 winners had more runs that season than he has
* MEDICI TIME is also on a tough handicap mark
* He is 8lbs higher than his best previous winning rating
* He is unplaced in his 5 races beyond a Class 4 race
* He will need a career best to win this
* CONFESSIONAL is from a 3yo handicap with 16 runs
* Horses from 3yo handicaps with 9 + runs were 2-45
* Both winners had Group Class form before
* CONFESSIONAL lacks that
* Both winners came from Class 3 handicaps
* Those like CONFESSIONAL from Class 2 races were 0-18
* CONFESSIONAL is not close enough to any winners
* HAAJES is an exposed 6 year old from a 5f race
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race
* Horses like that without a run in 7 days were 1-30
* Its no more than an average profile
* HAAJES has ran in 12 Class 2 races and unplaced 12 times
* On a Career high mark there are some worries there

POSSIBLES

* PISCEAN is an exposed 5yo from a 5f race
* He has listed class form but no Group class form
* There were 5 winners with that profile
* Males like him beaten 6 + lengths last time were 1-12
* That winner had an absence but he isnt too far away
* PISCEAN will probably find something to beat him
* Statistically there are worse profiles and he looks a possible
* It worries me he is 0-19 in fields of 13 or more though
* REIGNIER is 3 and has been absent 63 days
* There were 2 winners aged 3 absent over a Month
* These had slightly fewer runs but he has 9 and thats ok
* Both winners had 3 runs that season as he does
* Neither came from a Group race as he did last time
* Neither were beaten as far as he was last time
* COURAGEOUS is 4 and absent a month
* We know no 4 year old won with that absence
* He only just fails it though and I’d overlook that
* He does have his first run for Dandy Nicholls today
* There would be a slight added risk because of that

SELECTION

* STRIKE UP THE BAND may be ready to win again
* He was 3rd in this race last year
* Last year he faced a difficult 51 day absence
* This year he ran just 5 days ago
* Last year he ran off a rating of 100
* This year he runs only off 87
* STRIKE UP THE BAND carries 8lbs less weight as well
* STRIKE UP THE BAND has a great chance in my view

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THIRSK 2.55

Hambleton Cup Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

5/2 Green Lightning, 7/2 George Adamson, 9/2 Lady Luachmhar
13/2 Ethics Girl, 8/1 Brouhaha, 8/1 River Ardeche
10/1 Snow Dancer, 12/1 Kames Park.

This is a 12f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses. There are 391
similar races at this time of year. I think its worth looking for an alternative each way to GREEN LIGHTNING. There are 4 options for me. None have outstanding profiles but it’s probably worth trying to find one to beat him. The problem I have with GREEN LIGHTNING is his 2f drop in distance.

* Horses from 3yo Handicaps over 14f struggled
* Those with 4 or more career starts were 2-48
* Those with under 6 runs that season were 0-26
* GREEN LIGHTNING only has 4 starts
* Those beaten more than 10 lengths last time were 0-28
* GREEN LIGHTNING also fails that

I just think GREEN LIGHTNING falls a bit short of what is
required. I didnt like BROUHAHA as I could not match him
with an absence and a poor last run. ETHICS GIRL may just
want more runs and KAMES PARK didnt achieve enough on
his last run. I think there are 4 possible choices in this race. I felt GEORGE ADAMSON lacked a bit of backclass leaving him a litle unsafe. LADY LUACHMHAR is a 4yo filly down from a 2m race. I found 2 similar winners but neither had less than 13 career starts and she has 9 runs so again she is a little unsafe. RIVER ARDECHE is shortlistable but I’d have liked a bit better last run. SNOW DANCER is also worth considering. I felt one of these 4 each way was the sensible bet and given the choice I just prefered RIVER ARDECHE each way at 16/1.

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HAYDOCK 3.05

Betfred Kingspin Old Borough Cup (Heritage Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 1m6f

5/1 Kansai Spirit, 13/2 Lady Eclair, 13/2 Red Cadeaux
12/1 Chilly Filly, 12/1 Recession Proof, 14/1 Ajaan
14/1 Braveheart Move, Rangefinder, 14/1 Woolfall Treasure
16/1 Becausewecan, 16/1 Cotillion, 20/1 Crackentorp
20/1 Moon Indigo, 20/1 Perfect Shot, 20/1 Porgy
33/1 Shipmaster, 40/1 Macarthur.

* The Old Borough Cup is a 14f Handicsap
* There are 10 renewals of this race
* It has been upgraded in status over the years
* I’m looking at the 10 past renewals
* I’m also looking at 35 similar Class 2 races elsewhere
* Looking at the angles in this race they are as follows
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs had a 0-55 record
* Horses with 1-2-3 runs that season were 0-29
* Horses aged 6 or more were 0-36
* Every past winner ran within 7 weeks
* Every past winner finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time (0-64)
* No winner lost by 6 or more lengths last time (0-69)
* Every past winner was a Male horse
* No past winners dropped from 2 Miles or more (0-40)
* No winners came from 11f or shorter
* This leaves a shortlist of 2 runners
* RED CADEAUX – KANSAI SPIRIT

There are 35 similar races at this time of year. None of them were as old as SHIPMASTER or absent as long. There were 4 winners aged 6 or more. They all had at least 4 runs that year and AJAAN looks weak with just 2 runs this year. All horses his age that won also had much less weight. RANGEFINDER  is also a 6 year old. He only won a Class 4 handicap last time  and no winner his age won any handicap last time over 14f or 16f and I see him unsafe on a career high mark coming from  a 0-80 race to a 0-100 contest. We know exposed horses are 0-57 record in this race. In 35 similar races they had a 4-153 record. Those from 12f or shorter were 0-59 and it puts me off MACARTHUR who was also beaten too far last time. I’m worried about BECAUSEWECAN as he is a 4yo and exposed  and in all similar races these types are 0-20. The few exposed
horses that won these races all had light seasons. Those with 7 or more runs that year were 0-52 and BECAUSEWECAN
fails that. WOOLFALL TREASURE also fails that and does
not make any appeal as another exposed horse on a career
high mark. I would oppose PORGY coming from a 10f race.
BRAVEHEART MOVE is also rejected coming from 10f too.
I dont like the record of fillies. None have won this race and No filly like LADY ECLAIR won last time. She is a 4yo filly and so far all 23 of those have been beaten in these 35 races. CHILLY FILLY is also a 4yo filly (0-23) and she comes from a 12f race and the only fillies to do that had Listed and Group class form and she does not. RECESSION PROOF has got too long an absence and looks underraced. MOON INDIGO comes from a Group 2 race. None of the 35 winners had ever run in a Group 1-2 race before never mind come from one. None of the 35 winners came from Group races unless they were 3 year olds and MOON INDIGO looks unsafe with 2 runs this season. Horses coming from 12f races with 9 or more career starts are 3-172 a miserable record. CRACKENTORP fails that and his last run was not good enough and no winners were similar to him. In the 35 renewals there were only 3 winners that hadn’t run in at least a Class 2 race before and they were all 3 year
olds. No older horse aged 4 or more failed to have run beyond a Class 3 race before telling me COTILLION lacks backclass to win this. Horses aged 4 with 13 or more career starts had a 2-100 record. PERFECT SHOT fails that. He has 3 career wins and horses in that 2-100 record with more than 2 wins were 0-67. I see PERFECT SHOT as unsafe and not for me.

I had 2 horses shortlisted on my Old Borough stats. I was left  with RED CADEAUX and KANSAI SPIRIT. I had a look at
KANSAI SPIRIT as a 4 year old with 7-12 runs and 1-2-3-4
runs that year. There were 3 winners but they all came from
better class races. I think he lacks backclass. If you look at all horses aged 4 or older that had never run in a Class 2 race or better before there is a 0-22 record and I just felt that he lacked backclass. You have to accept he could be improving fast but because of the superior backclass he has I would see RED CADEAUX as better statistically. His problem may be the drying ground. It will help his stamina but he likes softer ground and thats the main issue with RED CADEAUX. This is always a track that is well watered though. He is my choice

SELECTION – RED CADEAUX

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HAYDOCK 3.35

Betfred Sprint Cup (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)  6f

7/4 Starspangledbanner, 9/2 Regal Parade, 9/1 Kingsgate Native 9/1 Markab, 10/1 Lady Of The Desert, 12/1 Borderlescott 16/1 Rainfall, 20/1 Doncaster Rover, 20/1 Genki 20/1 Prime Defender, 40/1 Our Jonathan, 50/1 Barney Mcgrew 50/1 Serious Attitude, 66/1 Sir Gerry, 100/1 Iver Bridge Lad 200/1 Fullandby

The Betfred Sprint Cup has never been a great race for strong angles despite a long history. I looked at the last 20 renewals of this race. None of them were 3yo fillies so I would oppose RAINFALL who is less experienced than any past winner and LADY OF THE DESERT who has the added problem in going down from an 8f race. Go back to 1966 in this race and only 1 winner was aged 7 or more. No winners since 1966 were aged 8  like BORDERLESCOTT and MARKAB is also older than ideal and has a bit to prove anyway. DONCASTER ROVER has the bridge from Listed Class to Group 1 to overcome something I dont think he will manage. Only 3 winners have won this race without Past Group 1 form  and they all had under 13 runs and  I think that suggests he will lack the class. The issue with those horses from 5f races is simple. There were 5 winners and they
all came from the Nunthorpe like STARSPANGLEDBANNER
and  KINGSGATE NATIVE. The better record comes from 4
year olds like STARSPANGLEDBANNER. It’s also interesting
every horse coming from the Nunthrope were beaten less than  4 lengths last time out. STARSPANGLEDBANNER managed
that but KINGSGATE NATIVE was beaten 5.5 lengths so just
marginally fails that angle. The issue with REGAL PARADE
is no past winner as old as him dropped in distance so I can’t match him to any past winner well enough. Statistically I see STARSPANGLEDBANNER as having the best chance but it’s a tight call and I dont see his price any bigger than it should be and at the prices I prefer KINGSGATE NATIVE. His profile is ony wrong as he lost by a little further in the Nunthorpe than ideal but that was a joke race where they went off far too hard and it was a false pace and KINGSGATE NATIVE had a weak profile that day and a bad draw. He looks the best value here.

Selection – KINGSGATE NATIVE Each Way 8/1 +

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THIRSK 4.40

See You Next Year Handicap (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 6f

5/1 Divertimenti, 11/2 Select Committee, 6/1 Avontuur
6/1 Rainy Night, 8/1 Mullglen, 8/1 Foreign Rhythm
10/1 Cross of Lorraine, 10/1 Secret City, 14/1 Pearly Wey
16/1 Dispol Grand, 16/1 Sea Rover, 20/1 Avertuoso
33/1 The Happy Hammer

This is a 6f Handicap for 0-70 rated horses. There has been 406 similar races at this time of year. It looks open and not an easy race. I wasnt keen on DIVERTIMENTI. I looked at all exposed horses like him that had just won a 6f handicap but did not run within 2 weeks. There were 3 winners doing that but none were like him. None were aged 6 or more and the 3 horses that did it all had form in a Class 2 race before and he has never been out of a Class 4 race before and that’s left me doubting his chance of following up. PEARLY WEY  doesnt come out well not doing enough last time out. I dont see a great case for CROSS OF LORRAINE. All similar types that went up in distance all had more backclass and that does hurt his profile and the booking of Paul Hanagan is probably shortening his price. On his profile there are doubts. Another 5f trip jumper  DISPOL GRAND didnt do enough last time. I see SEA ROVER underraced this year coming from a 5f race. I see AVERTUOSO as opposable. There are 5 horses that I’d
have to argue are “Possibles” and one selection.

POSSIBLES

AVONTUUR – 1 similar winner but badly treated
FOREIGN RHYTHM – Mare from 5f. I’d prefer recent run
RAINY NIGHT – Shortlistable but not quite right
MULLGLEN – I’d have liked less weight but chances
SECRET CITY – Would be much better with a recent run

SELECTION

SELECT COMMITTEE would be a Positive for me. It would
not worry me he hasnt won at 6f before. It wouldnt worry me he comes from a 5f race either because he has a recent run and  is well raced and fit. This trip could be what he has needed for  sometime now and I dont see many better profiles.

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HAYDOCK 4.45

Betfred.com Stakes (Registered As The Ascendant Stakes)
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 1m30y

4/6 Measuring Time, 4/1 Robin Hood, 6/1 Sonning Rose
12/1 Rhythm Of Light, 20/1 Claret´n´blue, 20/1 Singapore Lilly.

This is a Listed class race for 2 year olds over a Mile. It has had just 1 year’s history so I have looked at the 24 races like this at all tracks. These 24 races show horses that had  just 1 career start had a 0-19 record so RHYTHM OF LIGHT and CLARET´N´BLUE look underraced. Horses that came from Nurseries have a 0-18 record so SINGAPORE LILLY looks a horse to avoid. These would be my negatives. I think the other runners will provide the winner. ROBIN HOOD looks impossible to rate coming from Ireland but few past winners were beaten far last time and he was. Without any doubt the best profile belongs to favourite MEASURING TIME.

* Horses coming from the Solario Stakes last time
* Finishing 2nd or 3rd last time out
* Horses with that profile had a 4-5 record
* They finished W W W 2 W
* MEASURING TIME has that profile and looks best

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W O L V E R H A M P T O N

Not bothering with the Wolverhampton card as the earlier
racing has taken up a bit too much time and I did not fancy  much at all there. There is a quick statistic in the opening race at 5.50pm that I want to mention and see how it does.

* August-September have 315 maidens for 2yo’s at less than 6f
* Horses that started 66/1 or more last time out were 0-221

The favourite in this 5.50pm race is PLUME DE MA TANTE
and she started 66/1 only 10 days ago in a Catterick Race. The conidence behind her must have been slim. Yes she ran well in 2nd that day but on a tricky track and she comes out after just 10 days and starts favourite against many possible winners. My  interest will be in watching how PLUME DE MA TANTE gets on and seeing if She overcomes the 0-221 statistic in this race.  Its an obscure stat admittedly but it’s still 0-221 and because of  that I predict she will lose.

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Cambridgeshire Handicap

This is a copy of a member message sent on Friday to clients

at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

The advised 33/1 has now gone but 22/1 is available right now on William Hill

Out of interest skybet are offering 6 places instead of the usual 4 on this race today.

NEWMARKET 3.40

ToteSPORT.COM CAMBRIDGESHIRE
(HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+)  1m1f

1 Ante Post Bet

Cambridgeshire Handicap (Saturday)
Newmarket 3.40

GREYLAMI  28/1

£25 Each Way

33/1 Hills – VC -Boyles -Spbet -
28/1 Bet365 -Tote – Blue Square -888sport
25/1 Ladbrokes -Corals – Stan J – Sky
25/1 Paddy PowerBetfred

Decided to go with a bet in the Cambridgeshire
Not statistically perfect but I have
set the bar so high statistically that I can find
fault with everything and I spent most of the
day on the race yesterday and happy that he
is overpriced and has a better chance than lots
of better fancied runners. We dont have many
bets in big handicaps and you can always expect
to lose in these races but we have earnt a crack
at the race this week so Greylami is a full bet.

SELECTION – GREYLAMI Each Way 28/1

The Cambridgeshire is a 9f Handicap for horses rated 0-109
and there is a long history to this race. The Maximum field
of 35 runners makes it a very hard race but there are a lot of good statistics in the race
to narrow the field down. All my trends in the race are given.
You may wish to apply them all yourselves and come up with a different conclusion.
I have tightened the statistics to the point where they are so tough for a horse to pass
that any horses that fail one trend would still be seen as a possible winner.
Its the horses that fail far more than one trend and are consistently coming up
short that I want to oppose. No point writing detailed paragraphs about 100/1
no hopers so I will just narrow the field down.

HORSES  FAILING MULTIPLE ANGLES

STEVIE THUNDER – BENCOOLEN -ELLEMUJIE
GRANSTON – FIGHT CLUB – TARTAN GIGHA
THE CAYTERERS – SMOKEY OAKEY -MARAJAA
KAOLAK – DOCOFTHEBAY -MOYNAHAN
SUPASEUS – GENERAL ELIOTT – KING OLAV
HOWDIGO -  ALFATHAA – NANTON

* SHAVANSKY did not do enough last time
* He had a shaky profile anyway
* His recent for is just not good enough to win
* CREDIT SWAP looks weak to me
* Statistically he is not suitable
* On the go too long this season
* His 3 wins in Summer leave him badly handicapped
* Never won above Class 4 before
* He has the worst draw in stall 1
* Claimer ridden he should be well beaten
* HILLVIEW BOY doesnt have enough positives
* He has ran every month since March 2009
* Its not a traditional preperation
* There are not enough positives to overlook any flaws
* I feel the same about KAY GEE  BE as well
* As an exposed 5yo his flaws cant be forgiven
* ALAZEYAB doesnt fit the right profile
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46) and he didnt
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* ALAZEYAB has 10 runs
* He doesnt fit with a past winner well enough
* His form in Pattern Class also weakens his profile
* So to does his inability to place last time
* He probably isnt his owners number 1 anyway
* ALAZEYAB is unlikely to be the one
* THE WHICH DOCTOR isnt out of this at big odds
* I have found 2 reasonably similar winners
* I have found 1 quite similar winners
* What bothers me is he comes from a Class 4 handicap
* No horse in the last 22 years came from this class
* Moving from a 0-82 to a 0-109 is a serious leap
* More so for a horse thats had 17 runs already
* Thats a big problem for me and I oppose him
* WANNABE KING looks wort considering
* He is a 3yo coming here with a W W W record
* He doesnt come from a Grade 1 track
* We know 19 of the 20 winners did that
* He is a 3yo from an 8f handicap
* Horses aged 3 doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* 3 year olds with a penalty were just 1-27
* He just misses out from having a strong profile
* He may find this class from his rating just too much
* Certainly has a chance though
* BRIEF ENCOUNTER isnt dead statistically
* There hasnt been a similar 3yo winner though
* None had pattern form as he does
* They all managed to place last time and he didnt
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46) and he didnt
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* I think there are better options
* BUSHMAN fails far too many trends for me
* Only 1 winner since 1987 ran in a Group race
* He just looks the wrong type for the race
* APPLAUSE is a 3yo filly and all 21 of those lost
* She is very inexperienced and lightly raced this year
* Three runs this year may not be enough for a filly
* All 3yo winners had more runs this year and were male
* They all managed to place last time as well
* She was impressive last time finishing fast
* It was only a Fillies handicap though
* She will be well handicapped but I cant bet her
* She isnt proven statistically and no winners were similar
* SALUTE HIM fails far too many angles
* Exposed with an absence and few runs this year
* I couldnt argue a good case for him
* ALMIQDAAD is a lightly raced 3 year old
* He has just 3 runs this year
* All winning 3 year olds had more runs this year
* None had ran in Listed or Group class before either
* His Group race form is a worry
* Only 1 of the last 20 winners had Group race form
* That 1-121 record has to be a worry
* He also has a penalty and just 1-27 overcame that
* ALMIQDAAD is nearly there
* He just does not have as safe a profile as I’d want

P O S S I B L E S

* ROYAL DESTINATION was well beaten last time
* We know horses well beaten last time are awful
* However last years winner was the only horse to win
* That winner was very similar to ROYAL DESTINATION
* He was lightly raced and aged 4 as well
* He came from the same Newbury Handicap as well
* Last years winner had topweight in the Newbury race
* ROYAL DESTINATION also had topweight
* Whilst last years winner was hampered he wasnt
* ROYAL DESTINATION shaped like he needed that race
* It may be that he needs 1 more run
* His trainer has 3 in the race and he looks the 2nd string
* ROYAL DESTINATION has a chance but doubts remain
* TRYST has had 4 career starts
* That makes him less experienced than all past winners
* Horses with under 5 runs were 0-14
* The best they managed was a 3rd and 4th place
* TRYST has won just 1 race
* 19 of the last 20 winners had won more races
* All 4 year old winners had at least 2 career wins
* Another problem is so few come via non handicaps
* He is nearly there but he doesnt match a past winner
* SIRVINO has a long 84 day absence
* The 3 winners that did that were all aged 4
* They all had under 13 career runs
* SIRVINO survives that problem
* He is not dissimilar to Pasternak
* He also won this after winning the Magnet Cup
* Horses aged 4 with 9-12 runs and 10 weeks off were 2-3
* You can argue he has more runs this year than the others
* Statistically he isnt too bad but I am a bit worried
* He has risen 36lbs in the weights this season
* He started the year off 65 and thats hardly a sign of class
* I doubt many past winners started the year off 65
* Winning off 101 with a long absence isnt easy
* SIRVINO is a possible but it wont be easy
* SWOP was 3rd in last years race
* He did that from a very poor draw
* He also came from last place after half way
* SWOP deserves maximum respect
* He does not fail any of my statistics
* Few other horses in this race can say the same
* I thought he really caught the eye last time
* I would like a few lbs less weight
* We havent had a winner his age carry so much weight
* Thats a worry but he looks a serious runner
* CHARM SCHOOL has a good profile
* He looks strong statistically from the best trial race
* Some question whether 9f will be far enough
* I wouldnt criticise him on that point
* Not with his profile solid in other areas

S E L E C T I O N

GREYLAMI  25/1 – 33/1

Each Way

This has been a Cambridgeshire with very few significant
gambles and it’s clear there isnt one outstanding candidate
as the market suggests. There are several potential winners
but they all have something or other to overcome. I do like
SWOP a lot but the weight will be very hard to carry and I
didnt think he would give 15lbs to GREYLAMI.

GREYLAMI has just beaten TRYST . I think he can again.
SIRVINO is a danger but you have a good chance of beating
any horse with an absence of 12 weeks. CHARM SCHOOL
has a solid chance but he has not made any big waves in the market and doesnt come
without question marks. I’m happy GREYLAMI has a great each way chance at a big price.
He does have some issues statistically but that doesnt worry me.

Statistically I have set the bar so high that everything will fail angles in this race and I
have made them as demanding as I can. I would be happier if he has 1 less run and 1
less run this year but I can live with that. Statistically I respect him and he resembles the
1996 winner Clifton Fox closely. Whilst he comes from a conditions race and I would
prefer a handicap that did not stop another very similar type in Blue Bajan finishing
second in 2006 from the same race with a very similar profile. I dont see any strong
reasons  why he cant go very close in this race with just 8st 5lbs.

He showed a nice turn of foot last time and would have won
had he not been mugged on the line. I think you want a horse conditioned at 10f  and
every recent winner had proven form over further than 9f. He has won in a big field like
almost all recent winners. It may be something less progressive beats him but there is
no guarantee of that as most of the lighter raced horses have flaws and he is fit and
in form with a recent run and gets weight from almost anything that matters in the race
and I think he should go very well.

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CAMBRIDGESHIRE STATISTICS

* There has been 20 renewals Since 1989
* Horses from 3yo handicaps are only 1-45 in 20 years
* Horses with Less than 5 career starts 0-10
* Horses with between 5 and 12 career races are best
* Only 4 of the last 19 winners were exposed
* Those with over 21 career starts were 4-234
* Horses with 21 + runs were weak in these areas
* Exposed horses with under 7 runs that season were 0-56
* Exposed horses aged 4 (1-56) aged 5 (0-67)
* Exposed horses aged 7 or more (0-49)
* Exposed horses with a 32 + days absence are 0-40
* Exposed horses that are female are 0-27
* Exposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are 0-113
* Exposed horses that have penalties (1-24)
* Exposed horses not 1st or 2nd last time were 1-196
* Exposed horses coming from non handicaps are 0-41
* Exposed horses with 9st or more are 1-75
* Horses with 13 + Career races had a 6-422 record
* Horses with 13 + runs and less than 5 this year were 0-57
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 3 are 0-35
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 5 are 0-106
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 3-4-5 are just 2-305
* Those in the 2-305 record with Pattern class form 0-119
* Both that did it had very light weights 8st 2lbs or less
* Horses with 13 + runs with Group 1-Group 2 form are 0-40
* Horses with 13 + runs without a run in a month are 0-95
* Horses with 13 + runs beaten 6 + lengths last time are 0-190
* Horses with 9 or more runs this season are appalling (1-161)
* Horses with 1-2-3-4 runs this season all had under 13 runs
* None had ran in Listed or Group class before (0-45)
* 19 of the last 20 winners came from a Grade 1 track
* 5 Year Olds have a 0-119 record – but not many were fancied
* Horses aged 8 or more have never won (0-21)
* All 3 year old had a 6-190 record
* They all had between 5 and 12 career starts
* Those with less (0-9) and more (0-35)
* All 3 year old winners had at least 4 runs that year
* All 3 year old winners lacked any headgear
* No 3 year old winners had ran in Listed-Group class before (0-43)
* All 3 year old winners were Male
* All 3 year old winners with a penalty had a 1-27 record
* All 3 year old winners were 1st 2nd 3rd last time out (others 0-78)
* All 3 year old winners came from a Class 3 or Class 2 race
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46)
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* 4 year old winners that had 5-12 starts had a 6-65 record
* 4 year old winners that had 13 or more runs had a weak 2-164 record
* Both were very lightweighted horses
* 4 year olds who ran in Listed or Group class before are 0-85
* All 4 year old winners lacked any headgear
* All 4 year old winners ridden by a claimer are 0-49
* All 4 year old winners not 1-2-3-4 last time are 1-25
* All 4 year old winners came from handicaps
* All 4 year old winners had at least 2 career wins
* Horses aged 6 or 7 won the race 5 times in the last 20 years
* Horses aged 6 or 7 all had at least 5 runs that season
* All 4 winners aged 6 or 7 ran within the previous 3 weeks
* Horses that ran in listed or group class before were 3-239
* None ran in Group 1 (0-38) or Group 2 before (0-20)
* Since 1993 they had a 1-199 record
* No horse with Pattern form had under 13 runs (0-55)
* None had under 5 runs this season (0-49)
* Horses aged 3-4-5 with listed or group class form are 0-171
* Horses with listed or group class form were all male
* They all came via handicaps
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were only 1-134
* Horses with pattern form with under 5 wins were 0-160
* Horses with pattern form and 9st 5lbs or more were 0-48
* Horses aged 5 or more are best running within 3 weeks
* Those that were absent over 3 weeks were 1-132
* If a horse has over a Months absence it may be a certain type
* It should have under 13 runs (others 0-95)
* It should have under 6 runs this season (others 0-82)
* It will have ran in Class 2 or no higher
* Horses absent a Monththat ran in Listed-Group class before are 0-62
* Female horses won 3 renewals since 1987
* All 3 had between 5-20 runs and aged 4 or more
* They all carried 8st 8lbs or less
* 7lbs claimers are 0-32

* Horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are appalling (1-257)
* That winner was last year though
* Horses from the 9f handicap at Goodwood recently are 0-30
* Horses that had not won in their last 6 races are just 1-198
* Horses from Listed Class last time had a 0-34 record
* Horses from Class 4 or lower had a 0-72 record
* Horses dropping in trip from 10.5f or more are 0-32
* Horses coming from a Conditions race are just 1-115
* Horses with 2-7 Career wins won 19 of the 20
* Horses with 9st 7lbs or more (1-48) underperform
* Most winners had been laid out for the race.
* Usually they had not started their season until June
* Either that or they had a 6 week break at some stage

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Horse Racing Tip For Lingfield

LINGFIELD 6.20

HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-65) 6f

11/2 Bateleur, 8/1 Another Try, 8/1 Plumage, 10/1 Dualagi,
10/1 Mr Skipiton, 10/1 Sherjawy, 14/1 Charlie Delta, 14/1
Rhapsilian, 16/1 Hollow Jo, Keep Dancing, 20/1 Kingsgate
Castle,25/1 C’Mon You Irons, 25/1 Calypso Girl, 33/1 Ejeed, 33/1 Scruffy Skip.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There has been 120 similar races in June

High Drawn horses have a massive advantage over this Course
and Distance. The last few handicaps here over this trip with 9 or more runners have seen the winning stalls drawn as follows. 10-10 , 7-9 , 9-9 , 9-9 , 13-13 , 12-14. I wouldnt entertain a low drawn horse. I would oppose KEEP DANCING – SHERJAWY C´MON YOU IRONS are all drawn in the bottom 4 stalls and KINGSGATE CASTLE is also badly drawn. There are several of these that dont look fit or ready to win. I’d argue this includes SCRUFFY SKIP and EJEED. HOLLOW JO is out with a long absence as an older horse. MR SKIPITON is out having a nasty absence and also a step up in trip. Whilst he has a good draw CHARLIE DELTA doesnt look ready to win. He’s exposed and has a big weight and has hasnt ran wellenough this year to think he can win without more runs. I am ruling out CALYPSO GIRL a filly from a 3yo handicap. You can give both DUALAGI and
RHAPSILIAN chances but no more than that and in an 18 runner race neither are well drawn in stalls 6 and 8 and I dont want a Mare from a bad draw. I feel there are 3 runners in this race.

PLUMAGE – BATELEUR – ANOTHER TRY

We backed PLUMAGE last night and she dissapointed but it
was a better race last night with far more improvers and she is very fit. It will be very annoying if she wins. I would also want to shortlist ANOTHER TRY. He has just won at Southwell and is a lightly raced horse. He won a poor race on sand and you wouldnt fancy the horses he beat in this race and he was 18/1 and has no form on Grass at all. He is lightly raced and well drawn though. Statistically he is only average and not many winners come from the sand in these races and he is a hard horse to judge. It depends on what he thinks of the grass. BATELEUR has the outstanding profile. Couldnt fault it at all and unless there is a deluge of rain tonight I think he’s the one.

SELECTION – BATELEUR

Best Price 11/4 Coral

Guy Ward
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Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip from The Mathematician

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NEWMARKET 1.50

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MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 4) (3yo) 1m

2/1 Invisible Man, 3/1 Merdaam, 4/1 Present Alchemy, 7/1 Kapsiliat, 10/1 Secret Life, 12/1 Bourne, 12/1 Moojeh, 14/1 Kimberley Rocks, 20/1 Bengal Tiger, 33/1 A Lot Of Red, 33/1 Kilkenny Bay, 66/1 Cake Stand, 66/1 Inside Trade, 66/1 Laminka, 66/1 Supera.

Not a lot to say in the Opening maiden. I think I would have to go down the Each Way double route and consider that the best horse to do that with is INVISIBLE MAN. In the last 7 renewals of this race 4 winners were unraced shocks at double figure prices so much as you can see 20/1 bar 3 and assume it is a race full of unfancied horses its rarely as simple as that and I think the each way double makes sense. I have chosen INVISIBLE MAN as the selection as I was concerned about his main rivals. MERDAAM could be being handicapped on his 3rd run and KAPSILIAT is a filly from a 6f race and just one career run. I’d be inclined to oppose her especially from a low draw. INVISIBLE MAN may not win but he is likely to place. There were 24 horses starting favourite in all similar races with 3 or more runs as INVISIBLE MAN has and 20 of the 24 that tried placed or won. That suggests to me the saftest bet here is INVISIBLE MAN in an each way double. My best suggestion as the second leg is Riggins in the 2.20 at Newmarket who should go very close as well.
Guy Ward

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Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Racing Tip

A snippet of the anlaysis from my full service today for the free blog.

KEMPTON 3.10

RACING POST CHASE (HANDICAP)
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

4/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Hold Em, 10/1 Nacarat, 12/1
Fier Normand, 12/1 Possol, 14/1 Conna Castle, 14/1 Fleet
Street, 14/1 Lacdoudal, 14/1 Ungaro, 16/1 Oedipe, 16/1
Silverburn, 20/1 Laskari, 20/1 Piraya, 25/1 Battlecry, 33/1 Endless Power, 33/1 Nozic, 40/1 New Little Bric, 40/1 Stan, 66/1 Billyvoddan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3 miles and
we now have 15 renewals of this race. Some statistics should be able to narrow the field down. You want a horse thats ran over at least 3 miles before. A Guaranteed stayer and horses that prepped over 2m 4f or shorter have poor records so I am against NACARAT who has real stamina issues and also ENDLESS POWER whose up in distance. OLLIE MAGERN is too old. Horses that had just 1 or 2 runs that season had terrible records. only Innox managed it from 49 that tried and that was not run at Kempton and ideally you want more runs this season. Therefore I am against SILVERBURN who may not be at home over this trip. Other underraced horses are BILLYVODDAN- OEDIPE -NEW LITTLE BRICK and LACDOUDAL. You really dont want to be coming into the race having ran poorly. Last time out winners won 11 of the last 15 races and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one falling. STAN – NOZIC fail that. Didn’t feel BATTLECRY did enough last time. Neither did PIRAYA a horse with too many falls recently. You want a high class and consistent horse thats been running well all year. The Last 13 winners of this race ran 48 seperate times in the season they won. In these 48 races in the season they won – the last 13 winners managed to either Win or Place in a very high 42 out of 48 races. You want consistency here so I am taking on the Irish runner CONNA CASTLE whose hardly placed at all. Its interesting that BIG FELLA THANKS and HOLD EM have had just 5 career races over fences and thats not many. You can argue BIG FELLA THANKS has just 4.5 chase runs as he has fallen before. The lightest raced chaser to win this was
Gloria Victus with just 5 career starts so it has been done but He was “special” and a monster of a horse. The last 13 horses that won this had 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 chase runs. There were a couple with 6 runs and Gloria Victus with 5 but its a big ask. I dont feel HOLD EM will have the class to defy that and he is rated lower than most past winners. I am also opposing BIG FELLA THANKS. Inexperience is one reason. Then you have the price which is short enough anyway and many are raising the fact that all his best form is on a left handed track and Kempton could be an issue for him and he hasnt got round the only time he ran here. I do not think LASKARI has the class or stamina from a sire thats never had a 3m winner and he has been on the go too long for me. FIER NORMAND isnt for me. He has 2 runs this year and he fell in his 3rd start so technically he is underraced this year
and I would be concerned he will be having a Cheltenham “prep” race and Jonjo has never had a horse in this race that could be sighted with binoculars. I am shortlisting these three

UNGARO – POSSOL – FLEET STREET

I dont see why UNGARO cant win. He fell at the second
fence in last years race but is it not interesing that last
year he started only 5/1 yet he carries 13lbs less weight
today. He has prepped in the same race as last year and
I give gim a good chance. I have found a winner that was
similar to POSSOL so he is shortlisted. FLEET STREET
also comes ot nicely statistically. I am going with an e/w
bet on UNGARO in this race

* He loves it here and won a Grade 1 here
* He was half the price in last years race with far more weight
* Last time out he was second to todays favourite
* Big Fella Thanks beat him by 11 lengths
* At Todays weights UNGARO has a much better chance

SELECTION – UNGARO Each Way 14/1 BSquare

centrebet are currently showing 112/1 for this horse

Don’t expect to get paid out at that however .
It looks like a palpable error to me.

Think what they meant was 12/1

Guy
———————
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Saturday Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Horse Racing Tip

Lingfield 3.35   INTERNATIONALDEBUT

Each Way Single Best Price 10/1 William Hill , Ladbrokes, Coral

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On the Service for Full Members of www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
there are seven previews today with 5 at Lingfield and 2 at Wolves.
The 1.20 at Lingfield is a novelty selection
so lets ignore that to start with. That leaves 6 previews.
It sounds far too ambitious to say this – especially as its
Lingfield and its a Saturday but the remaining 6 previews
have produced 6 very strong selections. I feel that I have
Nailed it today and I fancy all 6 very strongly. I think it
is that good a message. Realism tells me I have no hope
of getting 6 winners in 6 races but I dont see where my
weak link are and I wouldnt have a problem at all with
making any of the 6 selections and had the prices been
better in a few cases even account bets were possible in
many of these races. This makes picking the right ones
today for the top of the message a nightmare.

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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

Yesterday we had no business and just side stepped a pretty
limited day that didnt offer anything. Hope thats put me in
the right frame of mind for a much busier day today. With
all the inspections and marginal decisions about what is on
and whats off I decided to concentrate mainly on the sand.
Its a Number Cruching Blockbuster at Lingfield and Wolves
and whilst maximum respect is given both tracks I have had
a good crack at both meetings and hope for a good day.

For the free blog I am lookign at just one race at Lingfield.

LINGFIELD 3.35

WIILIAM HILL TOP TEAM FOOTBALL
PRICES HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m2f

9/2 Lady Jane Digby, 5/1 Baylini, 11/2 Philatelist,
8/1 Ace Of Hearts, 8/1 Formation, 8/1 Internationaldebut,
14/1 John Terry, 16/1 Al Muheer 33/1 Prairie Spirit.

* This is a 10f handicap for horses rated 0-100
* We have had about 64 similar races run before
* PRAIRIE SPIRIT looks unfit to win a race like this
* ACE OF HEARTS is a 10 year old
* None of the 64 winners were that old
* He also has to step up from a Mile
* No horse aged 8 or more managed that
* He also has just 1 run since October
* He isnt well treated for his age and hasnt won at 10f before
* I dont see ACE OF HEARTS as a good bet here
* AL MUHEER has only ever won a maiden
* That instantly made him badly handicapped
* All 14 races since he has lost and is only 5lbs lower
* He has never done the trip before
* It will need to improve him a lot to win a 0-100
* That said AL MUHEER might find that improvement
* He is a fair price at 14/1 and has an outside chance
* JOHN TERRY looks more of a 12f horse
* He has a chance but I have to prefer others
* The race 14 days ago at Lingfield could be important
* FORMATION won that race at 11/1
* LADY JANE DIGBY was 2nd and BAYLINI 3rd
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT was back in 4th
* Less than 2 lengths seperated all 4 runners
* FORMATION won that race 14 days ago
* He had previously been beaten in a claimer
* I think the race was run to suit him last time
* I wouldnt be confident he would beat them all again
* His draw in stall 2 could be an issue
* The last 13 handicaps here with 8 or more runners
* None went to horses drawn in stall 1 or 2
* Only 1 went to a horse drawn 3 as well
* Higher drawn horses have had the edge recently
* This puts me off FORMATION and CONFIDENTIALITY
* I dont want to shortlist FORMATION
* LADY JANE DIGBY is another filly
* Fillies that came from handicaps were 1-45
* They dont score well but you have to respect her
* She’s in form – unexposed and has run in the class before
* LADY JANE DIGBY is respected and shortlisted
* BAYLINI has a chance but does have a bit to prove
* He hasnt yet won from his mark or in the class before
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT is a big runner for me
* He has won from marks of 87 and 92
* Today he has a mark of 95 but that doesnt worry me
* His last 3 runs all had excuses from marks of 99
* Three runs ago he dropped from 8f to 6f a big problem
* I didnt fancy him that day and he duly lost
* Two runs ago he moved up to 7f
* He had a 0-50 stat to overcome that day and lost
* That was no surprise as it was also his Southwell debut
* He ran in the race 14 days ago behind Formation
* He was a fast finishing 4th that day but he may improve
* That day he was up from 7f to 10f
* That had to have inconvenienced him
* Now conditioned at 10f he looks a big runner
* PHILATELIST is respected and has a chance
* He is slowly getting fit now
* Not the best handicapped horse in the race but all class
* PHILATELIST has to be respected but not for me

SHORTLIST

INTERNATIONALDEBUT
LADY JANE DIGBY

SELECTION – Its a wide open race but I feel I have made
a reasonable case for INTERNATIONALDEBUT and he is my main fancy in the race.
I think his last run has been criminally ignored. He was inches behind 3 of these when
having a 3f step up in trip which disadvantaged him. I feel
10f here must be in his range lookingat his form especially
here. If they got off hard he might be suited to a come from behind run and if there
is no pace he has a turn of foot. I see him coming fast and late and whilst this is not easy
and he does have a bit to prove like many others he looks the forgotten horse and a really big price around 10/1

SELECTION – INTERNATIONALDEBUT  EACH WAY