This football tip comes courtesy of the Oracle

1pt Fulham to beat Tottenham in the Premiership, 12/5 PaddyPower or 23/10 Bet365 (Saturday 15th November 3pm ko)

It is very important not to get too carried away with short term trends when betting on football, and to keep focused on the bigger picture. Juande Ramos was sacked as Tottenham manager after a terrible start to the season left Spurs bottom of the Premiership. He brought in a number of expensive signings over the summer and Spurs were expected to mount a challenge to the big four. However, the loss of Robbie Keane and Dimitar Berbatov late in the summer was a big blow and was a major factor in Spurs poor start in my opinion. Since Harry Redknapp has taken over, Spurs have suddenly come to life and are unbeaten in six games under their new manager. However, just as Tottenham were not as poor as their form suggested under Ramos, they are also not as good as the form they are currently experiencing under Redknapp. The media has gone overboard as a result of this good run and a number of bookmakers appear to have swallowed it.

The fact of the matter is that Redknapp has had a huge amount of luck so far in his short career as Tottenham boss. He started off with a home game against a very poor Bolton side and unsurprisingly picked up three points. This was followed by a trip to the Emirates stadium for the North London derby with Arsenal. Spurs nicked two late goals and gained a point they did not deserve. This was down to Arsenal carelessly throwing away the lead with sloppy play, rather than Harry masterminding some great comeback. Next up was Liverpool, who in Redknapp’s own words “murdered us”! The Scousers should have been 4-0 up before an own goal levelled things up and again Tottenham nicked a late goal to win it. Spurs didn’t deserve a point that day, let alone three. Last weekend saw more of the same, as Spurs trailed Man City before two sendings off allowed them to steal the points. Another win followed in mid week and from the praise being lavished on Redknapp once again by the media, you’d have sworn it wasn’t a Liverpool reserve team containing ten changes they’d just beaten?

So now we have a situation where Tottenham have been priced up as short as 11/10 (48% win chance) to win away from home against a Fulham side with a home record on a par with the big four. The cottagers have lost just one of their six home games, have won four times in front of their own fans already and only Chelsea have conceded fewer goals at home. Like previous seasons, it is their away form which is letting Fulham down with just a single point gained on their travels. Tottenham’s price looks even more ridiculous when you look at their own away form, not just this season but over the last several seasons. Their fortuitous victory over Man City was just their first away win of the season and last year they won just three times away from home. The season before that, they managed five away wins and the season before that they managed six. In fact, over the last three season Tottenham have won just 23% of their away fixtures, which equates to an average price of 10/3! Another factor here is that Tottenham have not won at Craven Cottage since 2002! Their record in that time reads W0-D2-L4.

Whilst their form at the moment is impressive, it is also very misleading and Redknapp joked during this week that he should resign now as things could only go down hill from now on. I think he was spot on, things can only go down hill, and Redknapp is still talking about avoiding relegation, rather than challenging for European places. Tottenham have been leaking goals by the hatful all season, the only thing Redknapp has done, is to get them scoring themselves. The defence changes every week as Ledley King’s injury only allows him to play every other week. This has caused a lot of uncertainty in a back four that already has suspect full backs defensively and which sits in front of one of the most unreliable goalkeepers in the Premiership. It is no secret that come January, Spurs will be signing a new keeper to replace Gomes and Shay Given was being linked with a move this afternoon. Gomes is a complete liability at set pieces and with crosses in general. He is just as likely to clatter one of his own defenders as he is to clear any danger.

If this game was played a month ago, Fulham would probably have been favourites. The prices on offer are being dictated by a short term trend and anything over 15/8 is fantastic value in my opinion. Fulham have already beaten Arsenal at home this season and in Danny Murphy, Simon Davies and Bobby Zamora, they have three Spurs old boys who will be fired up to put one over their previous employers. Andy Johnson is returning to full fitness and has three goals in as many games too. Fulham have to be backed to make it three home wins on the bounce.

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