Soccer Betting Advice for Saturday

Soccer Betting Advice for Saturday

The tips below come from a bloke called Phil who is one of the experts at the Football Bets site.

Phil spent many years working for a bookmaker and hs turned down job opportunities as a soccer betting odds compiler to focus on his own personal betting.

As you can see he is not one for long winded wordy waffle.

His betting success comes from his personal database of soccer statistics.

The stats and numbers lead his advice not random human hunch.

At last count he was running at  a strike rate of 59% and had a very impressive profit on turnover of  24% at level stakes.

The tip below is just one of four today from him.

Bolton v Wolverhampton
First goal OVER 27mins at evens Bet365 PaddyPower 1.5pts
Saver bet on correct score 0-0 at 9/1 Sky sportingbet willhill extrabet 0.5pts

Weekend Football Bet

I am away this weekend so there will be no further blog posts for this weekend.

I have an early weekend bet in however from PremiershipPreview

There is a free trial on offer at the link below

http://www.PremiershipPreview.co.uk/rsuk-free-trial.htm

Nb this service is newish but has got of well with a decent net profit banked so far.

Fromatting is a bit skew wiff below .. their real output is much neater.

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Newcastle United v Sunderland

Sunday 1st February 1.30pm ko Live on Sky

Head to Head

2008/2009 Premier
League
25/10/2008 Sunderland 2-1 Newcastle
United
2007/2008 Premier
League
20/04/2008 Newcastle
United
2-0 Sunderland Premier
League
10/11/2007 Sunderland 1-1 Newcastle
United
2005/2006 Premier
League
17/04/2006 Sunderland 1-4 Newcastle
United
Premier
League
23/10/2005 Newcastle
United
3-2 Sunderland 2002/2003 Premier
League
26/04/2003 Sunderland 0-1 Newcastle
United
Premier
League
21/09/2002 Newcastle
United
2-0 Sunderland

HOME/AWAY AVERAGES
(LAST 20 GAMES)
NEWCASTLE
UTD – HOME

WON 7 35% 15/8
DRAW 6 30% 23/10
LOST 7 35% 15/8
OVER
2.5 GOALS
11 55% 4/5
UNDER
2.5 GOALS
9 45% 6/5
FOUR
GOALS OR MORE
6 30% 23/10
0-0
DRAW
1 5% 20/1

SUNDERLAND – AWAY

WON 5 25% 3/1
DRAW 4 20% 4/1
LOST 11 55% 4/5
OVER
2.5 GOALS
8 40% 6/4
UNDER
2.5 GOALS
12 60% 4/6
FOUR
GOALS OR MORE
3 15% 11/2
0-0
DRAW
2 10% 9/1

H2H (LAST 5 SEASONS
– 7 LEAGUE GAME)

OVER
2.5 GOALS
3 43% 13/10
UNDER
2.5 GOALS
4 57% 3/4
FOUR
GOALS OR MORE
2 29% 12/5
0-0
DRAW
0 0% -

THIS SEASONS GOAL
AVERAGES PER GAME

THE
PREMIERSHIP
2.6 HOME AWAY
NEWCASTLE
UTD
3.0 3.4 2.6
SUNDERLAND 2.4 2.3 2.5

CURRENT FORM
NEWCASTLE UTD
LAST FIVE GAMES

FA Cup 03-01-2009
Hull
0-0
Newcastle
Premier League 10-01-2009
Newcastle
2-2 West
Ham
FA Cup 14-01-2009
Newcastle
0-1
Hull
Premier League 17-01-2009
Blackburn
3-0
Newcastle
Premier League 28-01-2009
Man
City
2-1 Newcastle

SUNDERLAND
LAST FIVE GAMES

FA
Cup

03-01-2009
Sunderland
2-1 Bolton
Premier
League
10-01-2009
Middlesbrough 1-1 Sunderland
Premier
League
17-01-2009
Sunderland
1-2 Aston
Villa
FA
Cup
24-01-2009
Sunderland
0-0
Blackburn
Premier
League
27-01-2009
Sunderland
1-0
Fulham

TEAM NEWS

Michael Owen and Joey Barton
picked up injuries against Man City that could keep them out for up to eight
weeks.
They join a
long injury list that includes Mark Viduka, Danny Guthrie, Cacapa, Alan Smith,
Obafemi Martins, Beye, Kadar and Gonzalez.
Shay
Given was left out of the side against Man City and is reportedly about to hand
in a transfer request.
Charles
Nzogbia has taken great offence to Joe Kinnear miss pronouncing his name and
is refusing to play for the club again.
Reports
suggest that a fee has been agreed with Bolton for Kevin Nolan and he could
be in the squad.
Nyron
Nosworthy is missing for Sunderland whilst Craig Gordon is not yet ready to
return from injury.
Keiron
Richardson should return to the starting line up however.

TOP SCORERS (LEAGUE
ONLY)
NEWCASTLE
UTD SUNDERLAND

PLAYER
Goals PLAYER
Goals
Michael
Owen
8 Djibril
Cisse
8
Obafemi
Martins
6 Kenwyne
Jones
6
Shola
Ameobi
3 Michael
Chopra
2
Damien
Duff
2 Kieran
Richardson
2
Danny
Guthrie
2 Andy
Reid
1
Steven
Taylor
1 Steed
Malbranque
1

THE ORACLE’S MATCH
PRICES (100% BOOK)

NEWCASTLE UTD 15/8 35%
DRAW 12/5 29% SUNDERLAND
7/4 36%

ANALYSIS

MATCH: Newcastle
go into this fixture with a squad decimated by injuries and unsettled by want
away players. Shay Given has reportedly handed in a written transfer request
and looks set to join Man City, which will be a huge loss. Their injury situation
was bad enough at the start of the week, but the loss of Michael Owen and Joey
Barton on Wednesday night has turned it into a full scale crisis. With Mark
Viduka, Shola Ameobi and Obafemi Martins all injured too, the goalscoring responsibilities
will fall on the shoulders of inexperienced youngster Andy Carroll. He will
be supported by Damien Duff in what will be a very weak looking attack. Charles
Nzogbia added to Joe Kinnear’s problems yesterday by taking great offence to
his manager miss pronouncing his name in an interview. Nzogbia has refused to
play for Kinnear again and is really just using the incident as an excuse to
engineer a transfer before the window closes.
Even
if you put the injury/transfer crisis to one side, Newcastle have been in awful
form lately, picking up just a single point from a possible fifteen and getting
dumped out of the FA cup by Hull. Their excellent home support usually makes
it unwise to oppose the Geordies at home, however, the St James’ Park faithful
seem to be growing disillusioned with events at the club. Incredibly, there
are still tickets available for what should be one of the biggest games of the
season. Just seven wins in their last twenty home games also suggests that St
James’ Park is no longer the fortress it once was.
Sunderland
are in decent form with just one defeat in five games. They have kept back to
back clean sheets and possess a dangerous forward partnership in Cisse and Kenwyne
Jones. Steed Malbranque is the creative influence in midfield with eight assists
so far this season and Sunderland will look to him to provide the ammunition
for the front two. The Mackems are also boosted by the return of Kieron Richardson
who scored the winner in the reverse fixture at the Stadium of Light earlier
in the season.
There
has been a gamble already on Sunderland but they are still value at 2/1 in my
opinion. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Newcastle go off only marginal favourites
on Betfair and would be happy to back Sunderland at 7/4 or better.

GOALS: It
is difficult to judge how many goals there will be in this game as there is
no strong trend in any of the stats. Newcastle games tend to feature a high
number of goals with this especially being the case in home games. Sunderland
games tend to be relatively low scoring affairs however. Recent head to heads
are also evenly split between under and over 2.5 goals. If I had to go one way
or the other I’d probably back overs at evens. Newcastle’s injury problems,
and the absence of Shay Given, should see Sunderland score at least one, forcing
Newcastle to attack and leave space on the counter. An early goal could open
things up dramatically. That said, Newcastle’s depleted side don’t look to have
many goals in them.

GOALSCORERS: The
best bet here has to be Kenywne Jones at 12/5 with Skybet to score anytime.
Jones is bang in form with five goals in seven league games. He will fancy his
chances against Steve Harper and is a very fair price. Djibril Cisse is another
player with chances of getting on the score sheet and is also backable at 11/5.
Cisse is Sunderland’s top scorer with eight league goals. It’s difficult to
make a case for any Newcastle player but if I had to pick out someone I’d go
for Steven Taylor at 13/1 with PaddyPower to score anytime. He is a threat from
set pieces and most other firms are just 9/1.

RECOMMENDATIONS

2pts Sunderland to beat Newcastle 21/10 BoyleSports or 2/1 Betfred, PaddyPower and William Hill

Best Wishes

The Oracle

www.PremiershipPreview.co.uk

Premiership Soccer Bet

Premiership Soccer Bet from Football-Bets.co.uk

1pt Sunderland to beat Bolton in the Premiership, 11/8 Coral or 13/10 Betfred, Blue Square, Ladbrokes and Tote (Saturday 29th November 3pm ko)

A price of 11/8 about Sunderland beating Bolton is an example of a bookmaker overreacting to a short term trend. It suggests that there is nothing between the two sides without home advantage and maybe even that Bolton are the better team. Sunderland are on a poor run of form, whilst Bolton have picked up a bit lately, but only two points separate the teams in the table. Sunderland are one place above the relegation zone but the league is so tight that a couple of wins would see them challenging for a Uefa cup spot. In my opinion, Sunderland have much better players and a better manager than Bolton. The likes of Cisse, Diouf, Kenwynne Jones, Malbranque, Richardson, Ferdinand and Craig Gordon, would walk into Gary Megson’s team. Sunderland have lost their last three home games but all teams have a bad run at some point in the season and I cant see it lasting much longer, especially with Bolton as the visitors tomorrow. Sunderland’s home form under Roy Keane has been very good in general and they just need a little bit of luck to go their way. They had eighteen attempts on goal against West Ham last week and were unlucky to take nothing from the game. Bolton are not a side I rate highly at all. I think Sunderland are a little bit of value to mark Keane’s 100th game in charge, by repeating last seasons feat of taking all three points from this fixture.

Minimum price to take – 11/10

This Analysis was provided by The Oracle.

Click the link below to visit his site.

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This football tip comes courtesy of the Oracle

1pt Fulham to beat Tottenham in the Premiership, 12/5 PaddyPower or 23/10 Bet365 (Saturday 15th November 3pm ko)

It is very important not to get too carried away with short term trends when betting on football, and to keep focused on the bigger picture. Juande Ramos was sacked as Tottenham manager after a terrible start to the season left Spurs bottom of the Premiership. He brought in a number of expensive signings over the summer and Spurs were expected to mount a challenge to the big four. However, the loss of Robbie Keane and Dimitar Berbatov late in the summer was a big blow and was a major factor in Spurs poor start in my opinion. Since Harry Redknapp has taken over, Spurs have suddenly come to life and are unbeaten in six games under their new manager. However, just as Tottenham were not as poor as their form suggested under Ramos, they are also not as good as the form they are currently experiencing under Redknapp. The media has gone overboard as a result of this good run and a number of bookmakers appear to have swallowed it.

The fact of the matter is that Redknapp has had a huge amount of luck so far in his short career as Tottenham boss. He started off with a home game against a very poor Bolton side and unsurprisingly picked up three points. This was followed by a trip to the Emirates stadium for the North London derby with Arsenal. Spurs nicked two late goals and gained a point they did not deserve. This was down to Arsenal carelessly throwing away the lead with sloppy play, rather than Harry masterminding some great comeback. Next up was Liverpool, who in Redknapp’s own words “murdered us”! The Scousers should have been 4-0 up before an own goal levelled things up and again Tottenham nicked a late goal to win it. Spurs didn’t deserve a point that day, let alone three. Last weekend saw more of the same, as Spurs trailed Man City before two sendings off allowed them to steal the points. Another win followed in mid week and from the praise being lavished on Redknapp once again by the media, you’d have sworn it wasn’t a Liverpool reserve team containing ten changes they’d just beaten?

So now we have a situation where Tottenham have been priced up as short as 11/10 (48% win chance) to win away from home against a Fulham side with a home record on a par with the big four. The cottagers have lost just one of their six home games, have won four times in front of their own fans already and only Chelsea have conceded fewer goals at home. Like previous seasons, it is their away form which is letting Fulham down with just a single point gained on their travels. Tottenham’s price looks even more ridiculous when you look at their own away form, not just this season but over the last several seasons. Their fortuitous victory over Man City was just their first away win of the season and last year they won just three times away from home. The season before that, they managed five away wins and the season before that they managed six. In fact, over the last three season Tottenham have won just 23% of their away fixtures, which equates to an average price of 10/3! Another factor here is that Tottenham have not won at Craven Cottage since 2002! Their record in that time reads W0-D2-L4.

Whilst their form at the moment is impressive, it is also very misleading and Redknapp joked during this week that he should resign now as things could only go down hill from now on. I think he was spot on, things can only go down hill, and Redknapp is still talking about avoiding relegation, rather than challenging for European places. Tottenham have been leaking goals by the hatful all season, the only thing Redknapp has done, is to get them scoring themselves. The defence changes every week as Ledley King’s injury only allows him to play every other week. This has caused a lot of uncertainty in a back four that already has suspect full backs defensively and which sits in front of one of the most unreliable goalkeepers in the Premiership. It is no secret that come January, Spurs will be signing a new keeper to replace Gomes and Shay Given was being linked with a move this afternoon. Gomes is a complete liability at set pieces and with crosses in general. He is just as likely to clatter one of his own defenders as he is to clear any danger.

If this game was played a month ago, Fulham would probably have been favourites. The prices on offer are being dictated by a short term trend and anything over 15/8 is fantastic value in my opinion. Fulham have already beaten Arsenal at home this season and in Danny Murphy, Simon Davies and Bobby Zamora, they have three Spurs old boys who will be fired up to put one over their previous employers. Andy Johnson is returning to full fitness and has three goals in as many games too. Fulham have to be backed to make it three home wins on the bounce.

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