The Cheltenham Festival is looming and I have for you today

a bit of an advance early look at the Cheltenham Gold Cup from

Guy the horse racing analyst over at www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk.

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FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Today I wanted to make some progress

On the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Which is now just 16 days away



Cheltenham Gold Cup

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


If you go back to 1999

19 renewals
17 of the 19 winners
Shared the following profile

1) Under 10 years old
2) Under 15 Chase runs
3) Absent more than 4 weeks
4) Coming from a Graded race
5) Starting under 10/1 last time
6) Under 21 lifetime runs
7) Starting 20/1 or shorter


19 renewals since 1999
75 horses had this profile
17 of these won the race

Horses with this profile

Presenting Percy
Shattered Love
Elegant Escape
Kemboy

Just looking at that shortlist
KEMBOY would be my preference

I would not use this profile religiously
It would only take minor adjustments
And I could add other horses to the list
Take the example of Al Boum Photo
Just ran in Listed class not Graded class
I could easily forgive a few horses angles
Road To Respect could have got there


Anyway

Wanted to have a look at the main runners
Listed some of their positives + negatives
And see where we ended up at the end

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


Number of Chase runs

22 Frodon
21 Bristol De Mai
18 Definitly Red
15 Native River
15 Road To Respect
14 Anibale Fly
13 Might Bite
13 Clan Des Obeaux
11 Elegant Escape
11 Shattered Love
9 Bellshill
8 Thistlecrack
8 Kemboy
7 Al Boum Photo
5 Presenting Percy


This is an illustration
Of how exposed the main runners are

The Previous 23 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 23 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs



FRODON

22 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

BRISTOL DE MAI

21 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

DEFINITLY RED
18 Chase runs
Not in line with almost all winners

NATIVE RIVER

15 Chase starts is forgiveable
But he has had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
He did win the race last season
Only 4 of the last 50 winners
Followed up and won this again
Will one or two improve past him
Can he repeat previous heroics
When the ground may not be soft

THISTLECRACK

11 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
He has also had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
Has not won a race since 2016

MIGHT BITE

10 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
Flopped on his two runs this season

PRESENTING PERCY

5 Chase runs
You can win this with 5
Interrupted Season
Just 1 run this year (hurdles)

CLAN DES OBEAUX

Has a 27 day absence
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
Has a stamina problem as well
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Listed and Graded races
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-15 record so far

ANIBALE FLY

Not a certain runner
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
The last 17 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn't
He has had 22 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

SHATTERED LOVE

She is a mare
Official Ratings have her way behind
Big price if you wanted to risk her

ELEGANT ESCAPE

Defied his pedigree before
Can't be ruled out with 11 chase runs
But flat bred and just can't have the pedigree


Leaning more towards these horses


AL BOUM PHOTO

He is a 7yo
Has raced just once this season
Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Worried about a 7yo with 1 run
That is my only problem with him
Two recent winners had 1 run that year
Thats a positive but none were 7yo's
He is also coming from a sire
Without a winner over this far

KEMBOY

He is a 7yo
Maybe fast improving
But Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Kemboy has raced only twice
Sire has no wins yet over 3m 2f +

INVITATION ONLY

Backed him at 50/1 some time ago
Seen as not a certain runner

ROAD TO RESPECT

15 Chase runs is acceptable
Finished a decent 4th in 2018 race
Connections say he wants it soft
His numbers don't really prove this
Stamina may be an issue sired by Gamut
His sires runners in Class 4 or higher
None have yet won beyond 3m 1f (0-13)
I would not rule him out on the above

BELLSHILL

9 Chase runs is good
21 lifetime runs is the maximum
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts


Provisional Shortlist

INVITATION ONLY 50/1 (WP Mullins)
AL BOUM PHOTO 20/1 (WP Mullins)
KEMBOY 10/1 (WP Mullins)
BELLSHILL 14/1 (WP Mullins)
ROAD TO RESPECT 25/1


Obviously things can change
May have a completely different view later
But these 5 horses interested me most

4 of the 5 shortlisted
Are trained by Willie Mullins

Can't find any prices yet
Just for Mullins to win this race
But that could be an option later on

This list could be whittled down
Invitation Only may run elsewhere

Obviously the biggest headache
Not knowing the stable pecking order
But looking at this experimental shortlist
Looking at the prices and frame of race

If the race was being run today
I would probably stake it this way

£2.50 Each Way KEMBOY 10/1
£2.50 Each Way BELLSHILL 14/1

The race is not being run today
There is still much we do not know
Such as ground and running plans
Still clinging on for the vain hope
That we may be offered 4 places
I don't think we will get that though

But this is where I am with the race

No final selection
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Out of interest it has been tradition over the past few years
that Guy gives his final judgement advice on the Cheltenham Gold Cup
out to any registered on his free newsletter. Typically this will be on the
day of the race itself after actual runners and going conditions are confirmed.

If interested in receiving his final assessment register for free at this link

==> Free Horse Racing Tips

 

 

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