Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

The Cheltenham Festival is looming and I have for you today

a bit of an advance early look at the Cheltenham Gold Cup from

Guy the horse racing analyst over at www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk.

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FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Today I wanted to make some progress

On the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Which is now just 16 days away



Cheltenham Gold Cup

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


If you go back to 1999

19 renewals
17 of the 19 winners
Shared the following profile

1) Under 10 years old
2) Under 15 Chase runs
3) Absent more than 4 weeks
4) Coming from a Graded race
5) Starting under 10/1 last time
6) Under 21 lifetime runs
7) Starting 20/1 or shorter


19 renewals since 1999
75 horses had this profile
17 of these won the race

Horses with this profile

Presenting Percy
Shattered Love
Elegant Escape
Kemboy

Just looking at that shortlist
KEMBOY would be my preference

I would not use this profile religiously
It would only take minor adjustments
And I could add other horses to the list
Take the example of Al Boum Photo
Just ran in Listed class not Graded class
I could easily forgive a few horses angles
Road To Respect could have got there


Anyway

Wanted to have a look at the main runners
Listed some of their positives + negatives
And see where we ended up at the end

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


Number of Chase runs

22 Frodon
21 Bristol De Mai
18 Definitly Red
15 Native River
15 Road To Respect
14 Anibale Fly
13 Might Bite
13 Clan Des Obeaux
11 Elegant Escape
11 Shattered Love
9 Bellshill
8 Thistlecrack
8 Kemboy
7 Al Boum Photo
5 Presenting Percy


This is an illustration
Of how exposed the main runners are

The Previous 23 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 23 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs



FRODON

22 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

BRISTOL DE MAI

21 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

DEFINITLY RED
18 Chase runs
Not in line with almost all winners

NATIVE RIVER

15 Chase starts is forgiveable
But he has had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
He did win the race last season
Only 4 of the last 50 winners
Followed up and won this again
Will one or two improve past him
Can he repeat previous heroics
When the ground may not be soft

THISTLECRACK

11 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
He has also had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
Has not won a race since 2016

MIGHT BITE

10 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
Flopped on his two runs this season

PRESENTING PERCY

5 Chase runs
You can win this with 5
Interrupted Season
Just 1 run this year (hurdles)

CLAN DES OBEAUX

Has a 27 day absence
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
Has a stamina problem as well
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Listed and Graded races
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-15 record so far

ANIBALE FLY

Not a certain runner
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
The last 17 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn't
He has had 22 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

SHATTERED LOVE

She is a mare
Official Ratings have her way behind
Big price if you wanted to risk her

ELEGANT ESCAPE

Defied his pedigree before
Can't be ruled out with 11 chase runs
But flat bred and just can't have the pedigree


Leaning more towards these horses


AL BOUM PHOTO

He is a 7yo
Has raced just once this season
Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Worried about a 7yo with 1 run
That is my only problem with him
Two recent winners had 1 run that year
Thats a positive but none were 7yo's
He is also coming from a sire
Without a winner over this far

KEMBOY

He is a 7yo
Maybe fast improving
But Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Kemboy has raced only twice
Sire has no wins yet over 3m 2f +

INVITATION ONLY

Backed him at 50/1 some time ago
Seen as not a certain runner

ROAD TO RESPECT

15 Chase runs is acceptable
Finished a decent 4th in 2018 race
Connections say he wants it soft
His numbers don't really prove this
Stamina may be an issue sired by Gamut
His sires runners in Class 4 or higher
None have yet won beyond 3m 1f (0-13)
I would not rule him out on the above

BELLSHILL

9 Chase runs is good
21 lifetime runs is the maximum
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts


Provisional Shortlist

INVITATION ONLY 50/1 (WP Mullins)
AL BOUM PHOTO 20/1 (WP Mullins)
KEMBOY 10/1 (WP Mullins)
BELLSHILL 14/1 (WP Mullins)
ROAD TO RESPECT 25/1


Obviously things can change
May have a completely different view later
But these 5 horses interested me most

4 of the 5 shortlisted
Are trained by Willie Mullins

Can't find any prices yet
Just for Mullins to win this race
But that could be an option later on

This list could be whittled down
Invitation Only may run elsewhere

Obviously the biggest headache
Not knowing the stable pecking order
But looking at this experimental shortlist
Looking at the prices and frame of race

If the race was being run today
I would probably stake it this way

£2.50 Each Way KEMBOY 10/1
£2.50 Each Way BELLSHILL 14/1

The race is not being run today
There is still much we do not know
Such as ground and running plans
Still clinging on for the vain hope
That we may be offered 4 places
I don't think we will get that though

But this is where I am with the race

No final selection
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Out of interest it has been tradition over the past few years
that Guy gives his final judgement advice on the Cheltenham Gold Cup
out to any registered on his free newsletter. Typically this will be on the
day of the race itself after actual runners and going conditions are confirmed.

If interested in receiving his final assessment register for free at this link

==> Free Horse Racing Tips

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

I have for you today a reasoned longer odds shot for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

It is a copy of an official bet from Guy Ward’s excellent Mathematician Service.

How many racing services do you know off that are good enough to

have had clients stay with them for more than ten years continuous membership
duration?

You could probably count such services on one hand.

Perhaps even on the hand of a crocodile feeder that is missing a few fingers.

 

The below Guy sent to his members on Sunday so odds on

offer right now may differ slightly to what he spoke about then.

 

NB This is Part 1 of his Gold Cup Betting.

50% of his usual stake he invested on Sunday March 11th

The rest he will decide upon closer to the race itself.

His Part 2 day of race thoughts will probably include a lot of extra stat analysis
of the race.

This Part 2 analysis you can actually get for FREE from him if you so wish.

See here Free Gold Cup Tip

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

1 Account bet

This is Ante Post

In the Cheltenham Gold Cup

 

Partially staked to 50% stake

 

Account Bet

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Friday – Cheltenham 3.30pm

EDWULF 20/1 +

£3 Win

£2 Place

 

Half Stakes Today

The remaining £5 Stake

Will be given nearer the race

 

25/1 Hills

22/1 Sportingbet Betfair

20/1 Ladbrokes Skybet Unibet Corals

20/1 Boyles Betbright

Cheltenham Gold Cup

 

EDWULF is 25/1 with Hills

He is 20/1 with most firms

He is around 22/1 on Betfair

 

Last night I backed him to win

 

The last review I did on this race

I had him on a list of 5 horses

Of potential shock winners

Minella Rocco 33/1

Edwulf 25/1

Road to Respect 10/1

Definitely Red 20/1

Double Shuffle 40/1

 

 

EDWULF has made the staking

I want to bet him now at the price

This horse is lucky to be alive

I spotted him earlier than most

Blew me away at Navan in February 2017

He was my Cheltenham Banker in 2017

Had every chance in the 4 miler

Before he collapsed in spasms

Looking like he might even die

He lost his eyesight which has returned

No reason why he can’t win this

Just done a career best Racing Post Rating

He seems to have been unfairly overlooked

As a horse lucky to be still alive and racing

Perhaps people might see him as weak and soft

Having had such a horrible experience

That could well be a big mistake

It could be a collectively false assumption

 

He’s just won the Irish Gold Cup

Having hardly had a race all season

Maybe he is the horse I always felt he was

His last win was really impressive

He has a lovely Gold Cup profile as well

EDWULF will be part of my staking plan

I think we should bet him now at 20/1

 

 

 

 

 

Betting Guru

I got some great positive  feedback from Guy’s last tip for the Cheltenham Gold Cup

“brilliant race analysis”  &  “really took the race apart”  etc

I still like that tip as a good example of opposing the media hype which was all about Kauto versus Long Run.

If  you missed it have a look here Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Anyhow a shorter priced one today from him.

———————

L i n g f i e l d  4.00

9/4 Kingscroft, 11/4 George Guru, 6/1 Axiom
7/1 Dubai Dynamo, 10/1 Hung Parliament,Titan Triumph
14/1 Reve De Nuit, 16/1 Final Drive.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over a mile
* Not many similar races so hard to match horses
* HUNG PARLIAMENT – 4yo seasonal debutants struggle
* None had under 13 career starts as he does
* AXIOM – No seasonal debutants won aged 7 or older
* TITAN TRIUMPH won a 7f handicap last time
* No horse as old as him won again at a mile
* Coming up in class he has a lot to prove
* DUBAI DYNAMO doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* Not as a 7yo with just 1 run since last October
* REVE DE NUIT – Just falls short and looks badly handicapped
* FINAL DRIVE -Doesnt look well treated at the moment
* I think he may need another run this year
* KINGSCROFT is an exposed 4 year old
* Similar types from 8f handicaps were 0-4
* Career high mark and unsafe profile but respected
* GEORGE GURU – Unorthodox as lightly raced 5yo
* Acceptable profile and well raced this season
* He should have a fitness edge over most of these

Selection – GEORGE GURU

Prices are coming in a  touch since this was advised to full members earlier

13/8  available at PaddyPowerBoyleSports – s james – vc

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Just a short note late note to alert you to some interesting Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips and Analysis over of Guys blog.

He is having a good Cheltenham so far with a 25% profit on turnover on advised bets.

His views tend not to be conventional and he always finds betting angles ignored by the masses.

Worth a read. See links below

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

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How To Pick The Gold Cup Winner

After timing this I know but there is still opportunity to learn from succesfull race analysis.

This was one of the better Gold Cup bits of analysis I read.

Guy seems to have  a bit of knack for the Gold Cup as he made a very good and reasoned case for Imperial Commander at 8/1 when he won last year.

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CHELTENHAM 3.20

Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

100/30 Imperial Commander, 9/2 Long Run
5/1 Kauto Star, 11/2 Denman, 11/1 Kempes
12/1 Pandorama, 14/1 Midnight Chase
20/1 Tidal Bay, 20/1 Weird Al, 25/1 Albertas Run
25/1 China Rock, 33/1 Neptune Collonges
33/1 What A Friend, 66/1 Carruthers.

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* Like many I want to oppose the old guard
* KAUTO STAR and DENMAN are opposed
* Both are now 11 year olds
* No Gold Cup winner was that age since 1969
* I take the view both are now vulnerable to improvers
* DENMAN especially looks weak with just 1 run this season
* KAUTO STAR only has 2 runs and doesnt appeal
* I would have to oppose this ageing pair
* PANDORAMA doesnt look safe to me
* You ideally want between 6 and 14 Chase starts
* PANDORAMA has had just 5 and pulled up early in one
* He has ran just twice this year which is a bare minimum
* Having Pulled up early in one of those races I’d worry
* PANDORAMA lacks form at the track as well
* Short on experience it’s not a Gold Cup winners profile
* MIDNIGHT CHASE has been a revelation last Autumn
* He comes from a Handicap and 2 recent winners did that
* That said both those winners had Grade 1 Form before
* Every winner since 1992 won or placed in a Grade 1-2 race
* MIDNIGHT CHASE has never ran in that class before
* Rated 163 without that form I’d question his class
* Coming from a Handicap before Christmass won’t help
* The form of that win has hardly worked out
* With the National in mind I think he will be found out
* CHINA ROCK looks outclassed
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal much either
* CARRUTHERS has shown this race is too much for him
* WEIRD AL only has 5 Chase starts
* That would make him the least experienced winner in ages
* I dont like him with 2 runs this year and a break

POSSIBLES

* KEMPES was impressive in Ireland last time
* He is peaking and could offer more improvment
* Unusual type as he started his career on the Flat
* The last winner to do that was back in 1979
* Thats not a good sign and makes him harder to fancy
* So to does the lack of form at Cheltenham
* One run here over Hurdles and well beaten in that
* His rating is just below the class usually required
* He will probably run well without winning
* WHAT A FRIEND doesnt look a likely winner
* His profile is too good for a 40/1 chance though
* His rating suggests he isnt good enough and he may not be
* It wouldnt be a complete shock if he won though

SHORTLIST

TIDAL BAY
IMPERIAL COMMANDER
LONG RUN

* IMPERIAL COMMANDER is the reigning Champion
* He has had just 1 run this year in a very light season
* His trainer has recently quashed that saying he will win
* He does have a brilliant record Fresh
* Winning last year and going well fresh gets him shortlisted
* He is 10 now and thats older than ideal
* I ignore that statistic as its a race full of older horses
* He is still ideally exposed with 12 Chase starts
* I’d have liked one more run this year but I like his chance
* I think he is one of 3 with outstanding claims

* TIDAL BAY deserves to take his chance
* He is high class and should be suited to the race
* Statistically he is older than ideal aged 10
* There has been a 10yo winner and plenty placed
* I wouldnt rule him out based on that statistic alone
* Not with so many others with bigger problems
* After all 3 or the 4 market leaders are that age and more
* You want 6-14 Chase runs
* He has had 16 Chase runs and thats only 2 more than ideal
* He has never Fallen over fences in his life
* He has a consistent record as well over fences
* TIDAL BAY looks outstanding value at 22/1

* LONG RUN is clearly Top Class and good enough
* The issue is whether he is good enough at the track
* He is 6 and the last 6yo winner was 1948
* It’s not that relevant as hardly any have tried
* Those that did included The Fellow beaten in a photo
* One think I would mention is that he is not technically 6
* He wont become 6 until April unofficially
* The Fellow was 4 months older than he is
* I see him as easily shortlistable and in the 1-2-3
* I dont like the fact he is not actually a full 6yo yet
* There is also the track and many say he doesnt like it
* I find that ridiculous after evidence of just 2 races
* Far too early to write him off at all
* His run in last years Sun Alliance was excusable
* He was statistically Repulsive in that race
* His chance was never as good as it was portrayed
* I have to forgive him that run and he did place
* In the Sun Alliance last year he was inexperienced
* Two days ago we opposed Time For Rupert in the RSA
* He had a better statistical profile than Long Run last year
* LONG RUN had 2 runs and Time For Rupert 3
* LONG RUN also came from 2m to 3m last year
* Time For Rupert didnt have to go up in trip
* LONG RUN was also a 5yo last year in that race
* There are just 2 winners aged 5 since 1946 in the RSA
* LONG RUN didnt have the allowances they had
* His run in 3rd last year was nothing short of magnificent
* Thats the stick many are beating him with this year
* His other defeat here was first time out this year
* That wasnt too bad a run either on his debut
* He demands the benefit of the doubt

SELECTION

LONG RUN 5/1 Win Bet

TIDAL BAY 22/1 + Win Bet

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk