Horse Racing Systems Archives

Group 1 Horse Racing Research

Group 1 races are the crème de la crème with the best horses taking on each other at the very highest level. Over the past 10 full seasons (2000-2009) there have been 299 Group 1 contests in the UK and if you had used a pin to select a horse in each race, you would have lost around 32% of your money !

Using a pin no matter how magic is not the way forward.

It not ..then what is?

A good starting point in finding an answer would be to painstakingly analyse  every Group 1 race over the past ten years.

Sounds like a lot of hard work.

Why not save time and just read what someone else who has already carried out that research has to say.

There is an interesting free article on it at the link below.

Group 1 Racing


Saturday Horse Racing Stats

Saturday Horse Racing Stats


The info below comes from Dave over at RacingTrends
This is actually just a small snippet from his comprehensive message for today.
Don’t treat them as simple racing tips.
They are more aimed as little nuggets of well researched facts that can help you when examining a race for yourself.

Few betting Exchange users go into such depth. Over the long term if you
know more than others do ..you should win more than others do when competing
against them on Betfair.

SR stands for strike rate

ROI return on investment

—————————————————-

POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2.30 Haydock – Solemn: Positive sire stats – Pivotal aged
5 or younger racing 1 mile or less SR 14.9%; ROI +14.1%

3.05 Haydock – Kansai Spirit: John Gosden in September -
horse ran at Grade 1 track LTO SR 27.2%; ROI +61.7%

4.10 Haydock – Morache Music: P Makin runners that finished
in 1st three LTO and running within 7 days; SR 43.3%; ROI +99.2%

4.45 Haydock – Kalleidoscope: Positive sire stats – Pivotal
aged 5 or younger racing 1 mile or less SR 14.9%; ROI +14.1%

5.15 Haydock – Bowdler’s Magic: Positive Sire Stats – Hernando
3yos on turf over 12f+ SR 22.3%; ROI +58.5%

2.15 Kempton – Signs In The Sand **: S Bin Suroor – June
to September on the all weather; top 4 of the betting SR 38.1%; ROI +43.8%

2.45 Kempton – Holberg **: S Bin Suroor – June to September
on the all weather; top 4 of the betting SR 38.1%; ROI +43.8%

2.45 Kempton – Once More Dubai **: S Bin Suroor – June to
September on the all weather; top 4 of the betting SR 38.1%; ROI +43.8%

3.20 Kempton – Clockmaker: John Gosden in September – horse
ran at Grade 1 track LTO SR 27.2%; ROI +61.7%

4.20 Kempton – Sir Pitt: John Gosden – male runners coming
back after a break of 100+ days; SR 23.1%; ROI +20.5%

4.20 Kempton – Sir Pitt: John Gosden in September – horse
ran at Grade 1 track LTO SR 27.2%; ROI +61.7%

4.20 Kempton – Bravo Bravo: Penalty carriers on the all
weather; male + ran within last 3 days; SR 30.9%; ROI +28.2%

5.25 Kempton – Primaeval: Positive sire stats – Pivotal
aged 5 or younger racing 1 mile or less SR 14.9%; ROI +14.1%

2.55 Thirsk – Green Lightning: M Johnston – 3yos running
in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo+ races; off track for 4 weeks or less; SR 27.1%;
ROI +63.6%

5.10 Thirsk – Perignon: G Swinbank – 2yos June to September
ridden by pro jockey; ran in maiden LTO SR 22.7%; ROI +131.6%

5.10 Thirsk – Johnny Castle **: J Gosden – 2yos on turf;
off track for 15 days+, top 3 in betting SR 37.5; ROI +21.8%

5.10 Thirsk – Johnny Castle: John Gosden in Sept/October
- 2yos in non handicaps NOT on debut SR 27.8%; ROI +45.7%

5.10 Thirsk – Johnny Castle: John Gosden in September – horse ran at Grade 1 track LTO SR 27.2%; ROI +61.7%

5.40 Thirsk – Colebrooke **: M Johnston – 2yo males racing
at 7f or more in non handicaps; top 3 of the betting SR 35.4%; ROI +22.7%

5.40 Thirsk – Mutajare **: M Johnston – 2yo males racing
at 7f or more in non handicaps; top 3 of the betting SR 35.4%; ROI +22.7%

NEGATIVE STATS – Please note – some are price** or going*
dependent

1.55 Thirsk – Guinea Seeker **: Poor trainer stat – T Easterby
2yos in Auction races when NOT favourite SR 3.6%; ROI -63%

Sale Week at PunterProfits

FREE Favourites Report and Sale Week

PunterProfits is a site well respected for hard work and honest research.

Dave Renham there has just put up for download a great little FREE report
into favourites in uk flat racing.

Which trainer for example wins 43% of the time when his horse starts favourite?

Plus this trainer makes a profit at starting price of 21% of turnover.
There is sale week on at PunterProfits right now where for the price of a pint
you will get a whole lot more than the great free report mentioned above.

Rather than me re inventing the wheel here I am going to be lazy and tell you
to go read read the online version of the PunterProfits newsletter at
the link below.

You will read a bit more about why it might be a shrewd investment to fork
out £3

( would over 100 points profits in a single month be of any use to you? )
Also you will learn where to get the totally free favourites research report.

Here is the link ==> PunterProfits Sale Info

Uk Horse Racing Favourites Research

Uk Horse Racing Favourites Research

Many love backing favourites for good reason.

They win more races than 2nd favourites and 3rd favourites etc.

Just blindly backing favourites alone however will not make you cash.

You need to know which favourites to back and which to avoid.

Dave Renham has just released a free research document that is very much worth your attention.

Favourites typically win 30% of the time.

Which trainer however wins with 43.9% of his runners when they go off favourite?

Find that out and a lot more in Dave’s excellent FREE flat racing favourites report.

To get your copy click here == > Flat Racing Favourites

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS

Below is a small portion of the very comprehensive horse racing data message from www.RacingTrends.co.uk

The bit I have picked out covers stats for favourites for races running Saturday May 8th

His full message also contains a lot more data about draw bias and trainers etc.

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Ascot favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 49 240 20.4 -£36.47 -15.2 2.50, 3.25, 4.35, 5.10
2yo maidens 5 31 16.1 -£17.12 -55.2 4.00

Haydock favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 86 387 22.2 -£34.40 -8.9 5.20
2yo maidens 51 140 36.4 +£2.45 +1.8 2.30

Lingfield favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo handicaps 28 93 30.1 +£22.80 +24.5 4.55
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 49 186 26.3 +£7.63 +4.1 5.30
3yo+ maidens 31 73 42.5 -£3.31 -4.5 4.20

Nottingham favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo handicaps 49 183 26.8 -£15.98 -8.7 2.55, 5.15
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 75 313 24.0 -£28.74 -9.2 1.55, 2.25, 4.05, 4.40, 5.45

Thirsk favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 75 288 26.0 -£11.14 -3.9 6.35, 7.05, 7.35, 8.35
3yo+ maidens 28 72 38.9 -£17.55 -24.4 8.05

Warwick favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo handicaps 15 84 17.9 -£29.26 -34.8 8.20
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 51 264 19.3 -£57.74 -21.9 5.50, 6.50, 7.50
3yo+ maidens 32 65 49.2 +£12.46 +19.2 7.20
2yo maidens 58 127 45.7 +£10.24 +8.1 6.20

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

Race type Wins Bets SR Profit ROI Race Times
3yo Group races 56 170 32.9 -£14.21 -8.4 Ling 3.10
3yo Listed 73 219 33.3 -£29.42 -13.4 Ling 2.40
All age Group 3 races 89 285 31.2 -£22.86 -8 Ling 2.10
3yo+ Listed 191 605 31.6 -£76.99 -12.7 Asco 2.20, Hayd 2.00, Nott 3.30
3yo+/4yo+ sellers 321 1018 31.5 +£29.07 2.9 Thir 6.05

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

Saturday Horse Racing Stats

The below was provided by RacingTrends

for more info click here ==> Horse Racing Blog

=====================================

Sat May 1st 2010

Best races for favourites

2.55 Thirsk

4.15, 5.25 Newmarket

6.45 Doncaster

Trainer stat to note

W Haggas has a good record with horses off track for 8+ weeks assuming they start in the top 3 of the betting. His strike rate is around 30% with profits of just under 30%. He runs Shamali in the 1.55 Newmarket and he is currently 3rd favourite.

Best race for front runners

5.15; 5.45 Thirsk

Strong course trainer stats

Doncaster trainer stats

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
M P Tregoning 5 13 38.5 +£3.30 +25.4 8.20
H R A Cecil 7 34 20.6 +£12.00 +35.3 7.15

Newmarket trainer stats

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
J H M Gosden 80 416 19.2 +£115.79 +27.8 5.25
J R Best 10 56 17.9 +£56.75 +101.3 3.05, 3.05, 4.15
H Candy 14 85 16.5 +£33.25 +39.1 3.40
A P O’Brien 16 98 16.3 +£21.89 +22.3 3.05, 3.05, 3.05

Horse Racing Trainer Research

When it comes to uk horse racing it pays to know your trainers !

Trainers exhibit very different performances under varying race conditions.

Some do very well with their 2 year olds whilst others do far better with their other horses.

With varying training regimes aimed at peaking horses at different times of year monthly performance stats are also important to consider.

Dave over at PunterProfits recently compiled a serious research document into racing trainers who run on the uk flat season.

He tidied it all up and has created a neat pdf file with easy to use bookmark clickable links that jump you to the data on any particular trainer.

A few quick ideas for usage:

1 – If you like to assess your own races it is an obvious mine of extra information you can use to form a more correct betting opinion

2 – Use it as a base to create your own systematic betting or laying approach.  ie pick out for your self the criteria for a bet using the strike rate and profitibility records supplied. Look for the most positive stats if you are a backer or the most negative ones if you are a layer.

Two links for you to examine

A – a mini article covering three trainers with sample data pulled from the main pdf.  Click Here ===> Flat Horse Racing Trainer Research

B – A short video showing the full copy of the document in use

Click Here ===> Horse Racing Trainer Video

The free stuff above is worth a look.

To get the full research document you need to join as a full member of PunterProfits.

This research doc is just a little extra perk of membership there.

There are in fact three other similar research reports you get on joining.

One for All Weather Racing

One For National Hunt Trainers

And finally another comprehensive report into favourites.

Even if you only stay one month there you get to keep all four research reports.

Worth a look if you are serious about your betting on the horses and value having quality research to guide your judgement.

Racing Post Ratings – A Study

If you have any interest in horse racing at all I am sure at some point you have opened up the Racing Post Newspaper and noted their ratings for each horse on their printed race cards.

These ratings also go by the name of PostMark

Quite simply they are score based on past form of the horse and are meant to give some indication of the best horses in the race.

All fine and dandy but one thing I have never seen printed in the racing post is any information as to whether these ratings are any good or not.

eg If you backed all the top postmark rated horses would you make cash or lose it?

Fortunately I know a man who has crunched the numbers and done the research to give you the answer to that one.

He has also gone a step further and broken the research down  further including aspects such as looking for top rated runners that are quick returners to the track and also the effect of market position ( fav, 2nd fav etc )

Go to the page below and about half way down the page you will see a section about the racing post ratings research.

Click here ==>    Racing Post Ratings Research

NB this is FREE

There are however bits of more detailed research you can choose to pay for if you like.

For example he has worked out a few past profitable systems based on racing post postmark ratings.

You get access to these and everything else that is full member only there if you register then upgrade your membership for £25.

Free Horse Racing Course

Uk Horse racing researcher Dave Renham has just released a FREE Horse Racing Course

It covers some basics those new to betting on the horses may find useful to help them get to grips with the game.

Also however there is a bit of more advanced thinking in the latter chapters as Dave expalins some of the key elements of race form one should use if assessing a horse race.

On the whole its an interesting read and well worth a look at the hefty price tag of a big fat zero.

Get your copy now at the link below.

Click Here ==>      Free Horse Racing Course

Horse Racing System Bet

Huntingdon  1.55 – Rackham Lerouge

Best price 15/8     LadbrokesVCSkybet

This bet comes from the PunterProfits NH Portfolio a method that has produced significant net profits over many years.

For further info click here ==>  Horse Racing System