EPSOM DERBY 4.00
This analysis for the Derby came from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies)
(CLASS 1) (3yo)1m4f10y

5/2 Jan Vermeer, 5/1 Workforce, 6/1 Midas Touch
6/1 Rewilding, 7/1 Bullet Train, 12/1 Azmeel, 16/1 Al Zir
20/1 Coordinated Cut, 33/1 Ted Spread, 66/1 Buzzword
66/1 Hot Prospect, 150/1 At First Sight.

I dont have a strong Derby opinion this year. There are
probably half a dozen that can win. AL ZIR doesn’t look
classy enough. I don’t fancy BULLET TRAIN and think
he will fail . WORKFORCE and COORDINATED CUT are
trying to overcome the statistic that shows no horse was
beaten in the Dante and won this. MIDAS TOUCH might
be the one but if you bet him you have to assume that he
is better than the favourite and that Johnny Murtagh has
chosen wrongly. REWILDING could go well but he is not
easy to assess and has no form on ground this fast. The
race doesn’t offer me anything. AZMEEL could go well at
a reasonable price but I suspect he is more a Group 2 type.
My gut feeling is REWILDING or WORKFORCE will win.
I have never believed in the Dante statistic and no race
has changed and deteriorated so badly in recent years
than this one. I will go with REWILDING despite faster
ground than he is proven on but if you fancy something
more don’t let me put you off. I don’t have a strong view.

As I type 6/1 is available about Rewilding at Bet365 and Ladbrokes.

Full current market odds at link below

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-06-05/epsom-downs/16-00/betting/

Haydock Horse Racing Advice

The below comes from Guy over at Horse Betting Blog

—————————————————–

Clearly the big issue today is the rain that is falling everywhere.
We might see ground changes at many tracks but that’s not
certain to happen and it does make it impossible to approach
the day as confident as I would like.
The Conditions are against us with this rain.
If I were to have an account bet today I couldn’t answer
the obvious question of whether the ground is right so
decided to have a No Account Bet Saturday because of this.

By tomorrow we will know the Newmarket ground better
and the draw advantage so Sunday may be the time for a
bet there.

Despite the above I know many of you will want to have an interest today.
Here is one to consider if so.

HAYDOCK 3.00

EBF Joan Westbrook Pinnacle Stakes (Listed Race)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m3f200y

11/4 Barshiba, 9/2 Becqu Adoree, 5/1 Les Fazzani
5/1 Polly´s Mark, 11/2 Rosika, 7/1 Flame Of Gibraltar
20/1 Three Moons, 25/1 Cassique Lady
33/1 Victoria Montoya, 40/1 All Annalena.

Never done this race before. It’s a Listed Class race for
fillies just short of 12 furlongs. There are just 7 renewals
of this race and no identical races elsewhere.
This race has always been won by a 4 year old.
They have won all 7 renewals so I would be wary of older horses.
That puts me off CASSIQUE LADY-VICTORIA MONTOYA -
BARSHIBA – LES FAZZANI.
We know this is a strong race for seasonal debutants.
If you look at horses who have run this season in the past 7
years you find  none  of then had more than 13 starts.
That is another pointer against the horses above.
ALL ANNALENA did not do enough last time.
THREE MOONS has to go with 1 run this year and up in distance.
POLLYS MARK has some chance but I want a debutant.

The ideal profile is this -

* 4 year old
* Seasonal debutant
* At least 3 career starts
* Running over 10f-13f last time
* At least 2 career wins
* There were 4 horses with that profile
* These 4 horses finished W W W W
* They won in 2009 2007 2005 2003

* BECQU ADOREE comes out well
* FLAME OF GIBRALTA is close to making that
* She just lacks a second win
* Dont rule her out though
* The 2007 winner came from the same trial race as her
* ROSIKA also comes from that same trial race
* ROSIKA is statistically perfect

The problem you have is ROSIKA wont be proven on
the ground if it changes as expected. The rain brings
POLLY’S MARK more into it. Given all the options I’d
still be happier with an unraced 4 year old so given that
BECQU ADOREE has form on the ground I will go with
her. BECQU ADOREE is the selection.

Ten previews today for full members.
Impossible to go throughit all with so many
meetings and as ever it’s theusual Saturday balancing
act of trying to offer a balanced message with potential
bets withoutkilling the chances through looking at too much.

This feels like a tough Saturday to me. Plenty of
the big field Saturday television handicaps today.
Statistically the strongest profiles in these races
have non – statistical problems with the likes of
Our Joe Mac and Ziggy Lee in the 2.30 and 3.40
races having outstanding profiles but issues to
overcome with the ground and the draw. I don’t
see either as safe enough to go with as a bet. I’d
not see this as a message to follow all the way to
the end as the races are too difficult and there is
a limit to how many winners we can have today.

Would have liked a strong bet on a Saturday but
if there is not one so be it. I think the race that I’d
be best to advise to bet in would be the Haydock
Mile handicap at 4.40pm. I think I have the correct
mix of negatives prices and profiles in the race and
I want to use this race to try and get a winner for
full members.

They quite rightfully complain however if the strongest bets
go up here on the free blog so I have selected another race
from the main message here today.

CHESTER 5.10

Lambrini Original Handicap (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 1m2f75y

7/2 Norwegian Dancer, 7/2 Prince Of Johanne
9/2 Bullet Man 6/1 I´m In The Pink, 10/1 Kidlat
10/1 Paquerettza, 20/1 Geneva Geyser, 25/1 Dragon Slayer
33/1 Bagutta Sun.

This is a 10f handicap for 0-85 rated horses. We have 145
similar races at this time of year. I think KIDLAT looks to
have too much to do well beaten just 2 days ago. Horses
beaten more than 10 lengths with just 1 run this season
had a miserable record. Those like GENEVA GEYSER that
dropped in trip were 0-50 and he looks weak. Another to
fall foul of that stat is DRAGON SLAYER too old for me
to overcome such a defeat. I’d oppose BAGUTTA SUN
from a 7f race. Only 2 of the 145 winners did that but its
relevant none were fillies and none as inexperienced as
she is. PRINCE OF JOHANNE has a complicated profile.
I looked at all 4 year olds like him with 7-12 runs who are
running within the last fortnight and found a poor 1-39
record. I can improve that record if I look at horses that
ran 2-4 weeks away but none were 1st or 2nd last time
and most had less weight. I think he is a borderline case
for shortlisting as he is complicated. What I dont like is
his Draw in stall 1. At this trip thats not the best draw
as very low drawn horses can often get cut off at what
is a very quick first bend. Overall I felt he was never a
horse I would select so I leave him off the shortlist. It’s
hard to rule out I´M IN THE PINK but I was not happy
with a horse without any backclass coming down from
a 12f race and found a weak profile. As it is already a
heavy shortlist as it is such an open race I am leaving
I´M IN THE PINK off it as there are better profiles.

SHORTLIST

NORWEGIAN DANCER has a good profile and from all
4 year olds winning with 1 run that season he comes out
as quite similar to those so is a positive. I have found 1
similar winner to PAQUERETTZA. Not a prolific profile
but it gets her shortlisted. No reason why BULLET MAN
cant win this race. 3 shortlisted. Open race. Tight Decision.

SELECTION

BULLET MAN each way
5/1 PaddyPower Ladbrokes Betfred blue sq Stan James

Guy Ward

For More info on Guys advisory service

click here   ===> Betting Advice

NEWBURY 3.05

Totesport.com Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

5/6 Paco Boy, 100/30 Zacinto, 14/1 Lord Shanakill
14/1 Ouqba, 14/1 Pipedreamer, 14/1 The Cheka
25/1 Stimulation, 40/1 Prince Of Dance, 66/1 Kargali.

It is Lockinge day at Newbury. Purely on profiles I am
going to oppose the odds on favourite with ZACINTO
in this race. Not sure how realistic that is and he would
not appeal as an account bet with a long absence but it
is interesting that since this race was awarded Group 1
status 15 years ago None of the winners were similar to
the odds on Paco Boy yet an incredible 8 of the 15 that
won were very similar to ZACINTO so he’s a decent bet

The Lockinge Stakes has an odds on favourite this year in
last years 4th PACO BOY. Like many I was impressed with
his win in the Sandown Mile. In 2009 PACO BOY won the
Sandown Mile and I opposed him in this race last year as
statistically there was a question mark. Horses that have
run this season have won 3 of the 15 Lockinge’s and they
all ran in the Sandown Mile as PACO BOY has done. The
fact remains that horses winning at Sandown and coming
to this race have a 0-26 record. That has to be a concern
as it beat him last year. It was the horses that Placed last
time at Sandown that won this race like THE CHEKA but
as he is lighter raced than any similar horse and that does
worry me. Given he is odds on and fails a big trend I think
it is worth giving ZACINTO a chance to win this race.

* Horses aged 4 first time out
* Between 4 and 12 career runs
* Previous Grade 1 form
* At least 3 Career wins
* Horses with that profile have a 8-16 record
* Its a better record than it looks
* 5 of the losers were beaten by the same type of horse
* ZACINTO has that profile and looks interesting
* Given the frame of the race I would be with him e/w
* ZACINTO each way is the suggestion.

Best current odds 7/2 Bet365 Stan James

For all Odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-05-15/newbury/15-05/betting/

Best Wishes

Guy

==================

Join Guy’s  full service to get detailed analysis on multiple races each day.

Click here ==> Betting Advice

Best Races For Favourites

If you examine the long term history of  individual horse races you will
see that some have a tendency for the favourite to do well and some have
a tendency for the favourite to do poorly.

There are two key measures of good or bad.

- Strike rate of favourites

and

- The profit or loss from betting them.

Below is a quick and ready reckoner to the races historically good for favourites for today’s racing.

Newmarket 2.45

Newbury 3.40

Bangor 4.40, 5.15

Uttoxeter 6.20

Doncaster 6.30, 7.05, 7.35

The above was copied from Dave Renham’s free horse racing blog and are based on his research over many years of past racing.

He puts up similar for free each Saturday.

His paid for service however provides a lot lot more detail.

eg Strike rates, return on investment info for layers pinpointing the poor races for poor favourites PLUS a huge amount of research into other areas of racing such as draw bias trainer stats etc.

If interested in testing out his service for free for a month visit the page below which is a secret page with a free trial deal for Sports Betting Blog readers.

http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/sbb-free-trial.php

Horse Racing Tip For Saturday

This comes from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

LINGFIELD 5.30

6/1 My Learned Friend, 13/2 Hazzard County, Oh So Saucy
7/1 Shaded Edge, 8/1 Realt Na Mara, 8/1 Rubenstar
8/1 Straight Face, 10/1 Alqaahir, 12/1 Headache
12/1 Ravi River, 14/1 Carmenero, 14/1 El Libertador
25/1 Sam´s Cross, 33/1 Oi Vay Joe, 66/1 Crystal B Good.

This 7f handicap is for Lady Amateurs. You can argue a
high draw is a must in this race but last years winner was
drawn in stall 1 just to throw uncertainty into the mix.
I’d be demanding a high draw myself. OH SO SAUCY looks
weak as a mare absent over 7 months and drawn 1. I see
ALQAAHIR as opposable. All his wins (5) are on sand
so having never won on turf its strange to see him with
a higher handicap mark on grass and I don’t like his draw.
EL LIBERTADOR – CRYSTAL B GOOD -  HEADACHE
are all badly drawn and offering nothing at all to entice me.
OI VAY JOE has been absent too long. I am happy to ignore
SAM´S CROSS – SHADED EDGE with their absences.
HAZZARD COUNTY is more complicated but he does not
come out well enough. I cant rule out REALT NA MARA but
exposed and unraced in over 6 months brings it’s own problems.
RAVI RIVER looks weak from sellers. CARMENERO weak up in trip.

MY LEARNED FRIEND is shortlistable after coming
4th in last years race from a poor draw first time out.
He has a run this year.

My selection is STRAIGHT FACE who won last time.
Its quite interesting that the last 3 winners of this race
all won last time out. Since 1993 last time out winners
in all Amateur races that had 4 or more runs that year
and that were aged under 8 years old had an excellent
W W W W W record in these races. He was a little bit
lucky to win last time but the real issue is he is fit and
running well with confidence and well drawn and with
similar horses doing curiously well in these races I see
STRAIGHT FACE as a good a bet as any in this race.

STRAIGHT FACE Each Way
8/1 William Hill 0r Betfred

2000 Guineas message from Guy over at Horse Betting Blog

—————————————————————–

It is 2000 Guineas day today. There are some big
poweful meetings today. There’s plenty of rain in
the air as well and some changing in the ground.
Always a danger of overstretching yourself and
doing too much on this particular Saturday. The
message for full members has 7 previews including
five handicapsand the 2000 Guineas itself which is
fascinating.

The seven races start slowly and build up into a
strong finish. Early doors there are 2 Goodwood
handicaps and they are just standard bottom of
the message races. I take in the Guineas and the
Palace House Stakes but we are not really in the
territory we should be for account bets. I like a
good go at the Thirsk Hunt Cup and have done
well there over the years. This year I like a 16/1
chance but it is probably too difficult this year.

The two races I like best are two divisions of a
5f Handicap at Thirsk at 5.15pm and 5.45. Same
angles apply in both races. Sometimes Thirsk is
such a seductive track as the angles there can
be out of this world but it is a track that throws
up results that make the angles look ridiculous
at times but despite that I feel strong in these 2
races and thats where I feel we should be going.

For full members there are Account Bets in these two thirsk races.

For the free blog however we will take a look at the the big race of the day
the 200 Guineas

****************************************************
****************************************************

NEWMARKET 3.05

Stan James.com 2000 Guineas Stakes
(Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (3yo)1m

Evs St Nicholas Abbey, 7/1 Elusive Pimpernel, 9/1 Canford Cliffs 10/1 Awzaan,
12/1 Fencing Master, 20/1 Al Zir, 20/1 Dick Turpin 20/1 Inler, 20/1 Xtension,
28/1 Makfi, 33/1 Hearts Of Fire 40/1 Viscount Nelson, 66/1 Fair Trade,
100/1 Buzzword 100/1 Elspeth´s Boy, 100/1 Lord Zenith,
100/1 Red Jazz 200/1 Audacity Of Hope, 200/1 Greyfriarschorista.

The 2000 Guineas is fascinating as ever. There are so many
issues in this race. I can throw killer stats at everything in the race.
It depends mainly on ST NICHOLAS ABBEY and whether
Aidan O Brien’s horse needs further.
Those people opposing ST NICHOLAS ABBEY have valid arguments.
It is true his Sire has a poor Group 1 record with Milers.
It is also true running over a mile as a 2 year old has not been a good thing to
do in this race but it has been done and he is clearly going to be top class.
The issue for me is what can I sensibly oppose him with. I think there are few alternatives.

With ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL he is already well held by the
favourite. I dont see winning the Craven as a big help and
he is also a middle distance horses. I think he find Stall one hurts him.
Since 2007 Newmarket’s had 25 races with 14 or more runners.
Stalls 1-2-3 had a 1-72 record in these races and that sole winner was
Sea The Stars a wonderhorses. I’d argue ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL may
be in trouble from his draw trying to get into the race.
AWZAAN also has a poor draw in Stall 2 and has to come from a 6f race
and has never run at further than 6f. I read in the paper recently that in the last
50 years there was only 1 winner of this race that never previously ran at 7f
or more and that was in 1999 and a race generally viewed as one of the worst
Guineas in years and over 100 of these horses like AWZAAN had tried.
He lacks a good profile and a good draw. FENCING MASTER makes limited appeal.
He looks like he wants further just as both his parents did and all his siblings.
CANFORD CLIFFS did not look certain to stay the 7f in the Greenham so
there has to be serious doubts about him staying a mile and beaten in a trial is
hardly a ringing endorsement. I cant have INLER as a horse coming from 6f with
just 1 career start. I’d question whether XTENSION has the class. AL ZIR needs to improve
so much and has already been beaten up by the favourite in
the Racing Post Trophy. I can see the argument to suggest
that DICK TURPIN is overpriced at 25/1 and could place. I
do think there are good arguments about every runners. In
the end it came down to ST NICHOLAS ABBEY and I dont
see a horse I can offer as a sensible alternative. I’d pick him.

SELECTION

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY

Check the link below for best current odds

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-05-01/newmarket/15-05/betting/

Some thoughts on Sandown today from Guy over at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

——————————————————————-

I have a full Account Bet today in the 4pm race at Ripon
for full members.

Here in the free blog today I thought I would put up a few quick thoughts
on Sandown however.

S A N D O W N

Want to deal with Sandown first as its not a great card
from my point of view mixing hurdles and flat races with
many big fields and trial races. Only want to skip over it.

The opening Handicap at 1pm has 7 renewals. This race
is for Jump and Flat Jockeys and it’s the only race of its
kind at this time of year so angles are thin on the ground.
The worst age group so far has been 4 year olds and I’d
predict an older runner will win. I am happy to oppose a
4yo from a 3yo handicap like Directorship -Kiss A Prince
and Aurora Sky and one from a maiden like Night Lily. I’d
oppose4 year olds like Sapphire Prince and Mr Udagawa
and Best In Class who were all well beaten last time. I am
against any 4yo like Black N Brew with an absence. The
other 4yo Striding Edge is also opposed. Carlitos Spirit
was beaten too far recently. I’d avoid Halsion Chancer
coming from a 6f race. I would shortlist 2 here. Normally
TWILIGHT STAR would have been chucked out with a
profile like his but he won this last year so he gets some
dispensation. MILLFIELDS DREAMS would be my best
hope in the race.

I thought the Listed race Hurdle at 1.30 was priced up
about right. All past winners were aged 5-6-7 with them
all having at least 4 runs that season and previous form
in either Grade 1 or Grade 2 class. Only two horses have
that profile in ASHKAZAR and PETIT ROBIN. There is
no point doing the next race as it’s ridiculous.

The Celebration Chase at 2.30 throws up a big problem
in what to do with TWIST MAGIC the favourite. He is
easily the best horse in the race and won the race last
year as well but just 4 days ago he refused to race and
that is a problem. That was in Ireland as well so he has
travelled there and back in a few days as well. I would
not want FIX THE RIB from a hurdle. Statistically there
is a poor record with horses from handicaps when they
drop in trip so I´M SO LUCKY and CHANINBAR lack
the profile of all past winners. OISEAU DE NUIT may
be the best option at the prices. His chance like all the
others may depend on whether TWIST MAGIC starts
or runs his race. TWIST MAGIC is the most likely one
but at the prices I like OISEAU DE NUIT each way.

SANDOWN 3.05

Bet365 Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m5f110y

7/1 Fairoak Lad, 7/1 Just Amazing, 8/1 The Package,
10/1 Kilcrea Castle, 12/1 Lacdoudal, 12/1 Nostringsattached
14/1 Air Force One, 14/1 Hello Bud, 14/1 Hoo La Baloo
14/1 Tamarinbleu, 16/1 Lothian Falcon, 20/1 Church Island
20/1 Monkerhostin, 25/1 Alderburn, 25/1 Irish Raptor
28/1 My Will, 33/1 Killyglen, 33/1 Martys Mission 33/1 Nozic, 33/1 Piraya.

The 3.05pm Bet365 Gold Cup is a Grade 3 Handicap over
3m 5f. Tough sort of race. The horses that I think will not
be Fit enough are MONKERHOSTIN – AIR FORCE ONE
NOZIC – LOTHIAN FALCON – IRISH RAPTOR. There’s
a poor record horses of horses aged 10 or more (1-71) so
ALDERBURN -LACDOUDAL – CHURCH ISLAND look
weak as 11 year olds. HELLO BUD is 12 and ran far too
well in the Grand National and surely wont recover. Its
asking too much for an exposed horse to defy a lengthy
absence so HOO LA BALOO is out. MARTYS MISSION
is up too far in trip. I’m uncomfortable JUST AMAZING
comes from a Novice Chase and also lacks any form in a
Graded race something 15 of the last 17 winners had. For
the same reason NOSTRINGSATTACHED is opposed.
TAMARINBLEU comes out badly with his absence. Its
asking too much of PIRAYA. The only 7 year olds that
won this were in form and placed last time and he didnt
and thats why he is opposed and THE PACKAGE has
similar problems and I don’t fancy him. KILLYGLEN did
not run well enough last week. MY WILL doesnt make
any appeal. I would shortlist two. KILCREA CASTLE
and FAIROAK LAD both unexposed look strongest.

SELECTION – FAIROAK LAD
SAVER – KILCREA CASTLE

The bet 365 Mile at 3.40pm is a high class Group 2 race.
Its a messy race statistically as 5 runners have had their
latest runs Abroad and no horse comes from the strong
trial race (Earl of Sefton) this year. PRINCE OF DANCE
and THE CHEKA look too inexperienced. No horse has
come from handicaps like FAREER. The last 22 winners
were all younger than PRESSING. One of the interesting
angles in this race is that horses aged 5 or more that are
running first time out are 0-44 in this race. It was only 4
year olds that won this on their seasonal debuts. If you
look at all seasonal debutants none won with 13 or more
starts so BEACON LODGE and PACO BOY the shortest
priced horse have that to overcome. For me the strongest
3 are BORDER PATROL – CONFRONT – CAT JUNIOR. I
would look to one of these. The best bet given the going
may well be CONFRONT each way.

SANDOWN 4.15

Bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m2f7y

11/4 Crowded House, 7/2 Glass Harmonium, 4/1 Tranquil Tiger,
9/2 Laaheb, 13/2 Steele Tango, 12/1 Soul City, 16/1 Redwood.

The Gordon Richards Stakes (4.15pm) is unpleasant as
just 7 runners take place. None of the past winners of
this race were as inexperienced as REDWOOD and not
one was as exposed as TRANQUIL TIGER. All the 4yo
seasonal debutant winners had Group class form in the
past and LAAHEB does not. Horses that had a recent
run and 13 or more career starts were 0-23 and that mix
is something STEELE TANGO has to overcome. I dont
like SOUL CITY much and doubt his stamina as well at
10f. Given a choice CROWDED HOUSE has to make it
to the shortlist as does GLASS HARMONIUM. Tough
to split them but CROWDED HOUSE appeals more.

The 4.50 is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile. Statistically
its a race that’s been messed about with over the years.
MUJOOD is out from a 6f race. SWIFT CHAP had some
problems up in trip. I don’t fancy DUNN’O. I dislike him
as he has 1 run this year and comes up in distance. The
52 similar races show 3 winners managing that but none
were exposed like him none were aged 5 or more as he is
and although DUNN’O won this last year it was with less
weight he wasnt exposed or up in distance. I am not too
keen on GENERAL ELIOTT from novice hurdles. I tried
to find winners like TARTAN GIGHA down from 10f in
the last few weeks but I couldnt match a strong enough
profile and MOUNT HADLEY also has that problem. It
bothers me CHAPTER AND VERSE has been sold and
downgraded stables late last season. That only leaves
MABAIT and although I think he’s plenty short enough
I can understand why he is a warm favourite.

Dave Renham has just launched a new free blog over at RacingTrends

To visit it click here ===> Horse Racing Blog

Dave is a respected horse racing researcher and will be posting some of his findings for each Saturday’s racing.

See below what he has for today.

================================

Sat 24 Apr 2010

Best races for favourites

1.00, 1.30, 2.30, 4.50 Sandown

4.00 Ripon

4.40 Leicester

7.50 Wolverhampton

8.05 Haydock

Trainer stat to note

R Hannon – 2yo Auction races over 5f; March to June; must be favourite SR 57.5%; ROI +37.5%

Hannon has a potential qualifier in Bunce (2.35 Leicester) – is currently favourite at 4.4 on Betfair.

Best race for front runners

2.15 Ripon

Strong course trainer stats

Leicester

Ripon

Market Rasen

Scottish Grand National Tip

AYR 3.20

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

8/1 Poker De Sivola, 9/1 Meanus Dandy, Theatrical Moment
12/1 Gone To Lunch, 14/1 Faasel, 14/1 Scots Dragoon, Merigo
16/1 Mobaasher, 16/1 That´s Rhythm, 20/1 Dom D´orgeval
20/1 Killyglen, 20/1 Lothian Falcon, 25/1 Auroras Encore
25/1 Halcon Genelardais, 25/1 Himalayan Trail, 25/1 Montero
25/1 Razor Royale, 33/1 Chiaro, Gidam Gidam 33/1 Out The Black
33/1 Superior Wisdom, According To John, 50/1 Cleni Boy 50/1 Idle Talk,
50/1 Ma Yahab, No Panic, 50/1 Present M´lord 50/1 Western Gale,
66/1 Lorum Leader, 100/1 Craiglands.
* The Scottish Grand National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992

In Nationals I am very suspicious about horses that look
underraced this year. No horse has won this race having
had under 3 runs this year so CHIARO – WESTERN GALE
LOTHIAN FALCON and HALCON GENELARDAIS have
weak profiles. Others that look underraced this year are
OUT THE BLACK, FAASEL, MERIGO, GIDAM GIDAM
CLENI BOY and IDLE TALK. I’d oppose these few horses.

Preperation is everything in Nationals and its interesting
that horses who Fell last time out or who Pulled Up had a
0-112 record in this race. You want a horse coming  here
confident and in form I’d be wary of horses not finishing
or falling in their last race. ACCORDING TO JOHN fails
that as does RAZOR ROYALE – LORUM LEADER and
THAT´S RHYTHM. I would be inclined to ignore these.

You want  some Experience over fences.Go back to 1998
and look at all the winners and the seconds and thirds in
this race. There are 33 win and place positions there and
the 33 horses all had the following number of chase starts.

13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21
10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17

You can see that no horse won or placed in this race
with fewer than 5 Chase starts. I would want at least
5 chase runs. SUPERIOR WISDOM doesnt have the
experience. I am also against MEANUS DANDY with
just 4 Chase starts. He is also a 7yo and only 1 winner
was that age and he had Graded form. MONTERO is
also rejected with just 4 Chase starts.

There’s been 2 recent winners that lacked Graded form
so it can be done but Neither of these were exposed so
I would be wary of horses that have ran enough times
to be classed as exposed but who haven’t got any past
form in Graded races before. I suspect these horses will
lack the class. PRESENT M´LORD  – SCOTS DRAGOON
FINE BY ME – MA YAHAB are all lacking this factor.

Horses from ordinary Novice Chases have yet to win it
and all 19 that tried failed. MOBAASHER fails that and
is not for me. Tehnically POKER DE SIVOLA also fails
that when winning the 4m Cheltenham Amateur Riders
race at the Festival. You can probably forgive him that
as a Festival winner but he is only a 7 year old and they
have the worst records and it’s asking a lot for a  horse
to win at Cheltenham and win this as well. If you look
at the horses that came from the Cheltenham Festival
they had a 2-68 record. None were exposed horses as
POKER DE SIVOLA is. None were 7 year olds. Both
who did it had Grade 1 form and he doesnt and what’s
possibly more interesting is that no horse that finished
1-2-3-4 at the Cheltenham festival won this race. Thats
enough to put me off POKER DE SIVOLA. Staying with
Cheltenham Festival horses THEATRICAL MOMENT
also comes from Cheltenham. We know no 7 year olds
done that and no horse has done it without a previous
run in a Grade 1 race and he lacks that. Considering all
7 year olds struggled in this race (1-44) and that winner
had more backclass THEATRICAL MOMENT doesn’t
really interest me. NO PANIC is also a 7yo and rejected.

I dont like horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter. Only 1
past winner did that and he had a run within a week. It
is why I oppose AURORAS ENCORE who also comes
from hurdles something no past winner had done. I do
not think CRAIGLANDS has the backclass to overcome
a nasty absence. HIMALAYAN TRAIL is an exposed
11 year old and these horses dont score well.

SHORTLIST

GONE TO LUNCH
KILLYGLEN
DOM D´ORGEVAL

GONE TO LUNCH is shortlistable but to have been a
really strong runner he needed to have finished better
last time and a heavy defeat knocks him back a bit. I’d
shortlist DOM D´ORGEVAL as his run last week just
gets him through the shortlist. KILLYGLEN looks one
of the better runners if he can cope with the weight

SELECTION -
DOM D´ORGEVAL 20/1  

Each Way

Bet365 who pay 5 places

Guy Ward

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