Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip from The Mathematician

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NEWMARKET 1.50

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MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 4) (3yo) 1m

2/1 Invisible Man, 3/1 Merdaam, 4/1 Present Alchemy, 7/1 Kapsiliat, 10/1 Secret Life, 12/1 Bourne, 12/1 Moojeh, 14/1 Kimberley Rocks, 20/1 Bengal Tiger, 33/1 A Lot Of Red, 33/1 Kilkenny Bay, 66/1 Cake Stand, 66/1 Inside Trade, 66/1 Laminka, 66/1 Supera.

Not a lot to say in the Opening maiden. I think I would have to go down the Each Way double route and consider that the best horse to do that with is INVISIBLE MAN. In the last 7 renewals of this race 4 winners were unraced shocks at double figure prices so much as you can see 20/1 bar 3 and assume it is a race full of unfancied horses its rarely as simple as that and I think the each way double makes sense. I have chosen INVISIBLE MAN as the selection as I was concerned about his main rivals. MERDAAM could be being handicapped on his 3rd run and KAPSILIAT is a filly from a 6f race and just one career run. I’d be inclined to oppose her especially from a low draw. INVISIBLE MAN may not win but he is likely to place. There were 24 horses starting favourite in all similar races with 3 or more runs as INVISIBLE MAN has and 20 of the 24 that tried placed or won. That suggests to me the saftest bet here is INVISIBLE MAN in an each way double. My best suggestion as the second leg is Riggins in the 2.20 at Newmarket who should go very close as well.
Guy Ward

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Free Horse Racing Tip For Saturday from The Mathematician

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THIRSK 5.20

ToteSPORTBINGO.COM HANDICAP
(CLASS 5) (3yo,0-75) 6f

4/1 Hysterical Lady, 4/1 Paddy Bear, 11/2 Captain Scooby,
6/1 Blue Noodles, 6/1 Raimond Ridge, 7/1 Liberty Diamond,
10/1 Moonlight Affair, 12/1 Legal Legacy, 20/1 Bermondsey Bob.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
* April and May have seen 138 similar races
* I want to oppose HYSTERICAL LADY
* She is a filly that comes from a 5f race
* In 138 races Fillies doing this were 3-197
* Those that ran in May had a 0-115 record
* Those fillies with under 5 runs were 0-42
* Those like her with 1-2-3 runs this year were 0-84
* Those like her without a run in 2 weeks were 1-128
* Those like her that were 1-2-3-4 last time out were 0-58
* Those like her with under 2 career wins were 0-152
* HYSTERICAL LADY has to be opposed
* LEGAL LEGACY isnt for me out of the weights
* Felt he had an unimpressive profile
* LIBERTY DIAMOND is a filly from a 2yo maiden
* The odd one won but they scored badly
* Fillies were 0-20 in the 4 renewals of this race
* 4 of the 138 winners were fillies from Nurseries
* None of them had under 4 runs though (0-20)
* MOONLIGHT AFFAIR fails that
* MOONLIGHT AFFAIR isnt top of my list
* I couldnt rule out RAIMOND RIDGE
* He is on the exposed side though with 14 runs
* He is also on a career high mark
* All his wins have come on the All Weather as well
* I would worry about fast ground for him as well
* RAIMOND RIDGE isnt for me
* BLUE NOODLES comes from a 7f handicap
* I looked at horses that ran within a month doing that
* The record was 9-167
* However none came from a Class 6 handicap
* Those 1-2-3-4-5 last time in 7f handicaps were 1-66
* Those 6th or worse in 7f handicaps were 8-91
* That suggets thye following
* Better to be beaten far in a classier race
* Than to run well in a cheap race
* BLUE NOODLES misses the shortlist

STRONG PROFILES

* BERMONDSEY BOB has a reasonable profile
* I dont see anything really wrong with him
* CAPTAIN SCOOBY has a strong profile
* Placing 3rd in a much better race last time
* PADDY BEAR has just won a 3yo maiden
* The runner up has come out and won as well
* I liked his profile and he looks a big runner
* He quickened well last time out
* Last years winner came from the same maiden
* Well drawn he looks good enough to win this

SELECTION – PADDY BEAR Each Way at 100/30 Betfred – S James – Tote – VC

Guy
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Saturday Horse Racing Tips from ===> Horse Racing Tips

1 Selection

Leicester 1.55

HUSTLE 5/1 Bet365

Each Way

The horse I want to bet  today
is HUSTLE. I think he will settle early and after a
furlong or so he will be a little outpaced and look
like he is under pressure. He should come back on
the bridle in the last two furlongs and use his turn
of foot to mow these down if Jamie Spencer can
ride him correctly. I dont think there are many
who can win this race. He comes from a good trial
race and will be finishing when many have cried
enough and I think it will take a dissapointing run
for him not be placed and I think he can win.

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T O D A Y ‘S R A C I N G

Winner yesterday with REINDEER DIPPIN. He was not
pretty but he won in a workmanlike fashion and quite
a good price in such a small field and I have to be happy
with that. It may have been over hurdles and another
mismashed message but he won and I am keeping it
tight and profitable at the moment and whilst we are
lacking fireworks I am not in bad form. I am in control
of the racing at the moment which is a good sign.

LEICESTER 1.55

TotePLACEPOT HANDICAP (CLASS 4)
(4yo+,0-85) 5f218y

9/2 Hustle, 5/1 Pravda Street, 8/1 Kipchak, 8/1 Vhujon,
10/1 Filligree, 10/1 Gift Horse, 11/1 Dancing Maite,
11/1 Dickie Le Davoir, 12/1 Peter Island, 12/1 Sparton
Duke, 14/1 Harlech Castle, 16/1 Charles Darwin, 16/1
Timber Treasure, 20/1 Methaaly.

* This is a 0-85 handicap just short of 6 furlongs
* This race has an 13 year history
* There has been 100 similar races run at other tracks
* Seasonal debutants had a 1-43 record in this race
* FILLIGREE is a seasonal debutant filly
* 4yo fillies first time out like her won 3 races
* All 3 that won had ran in better grade than her
* She is also on a career high mark and not for me
* SPARTON DUKE is also a 4yo seasonal debutant
* These types are 0-18 in this race
* Horses with 1 run this year underperformed
* HARLECH CASTLE does this and comes from 5f
* Those with 1 run this year coming from 5f were 3-83
* None won this race at Leicester
* None anywhere lost as far as he did last time
* HARLECH CASTLE looks opposable
* Exposed horses with 1 run this year struggled
* All 36 that ran in this Leicester race lost
* PETER ISLAND fails that and has a months break
* GIFT HORSE fails this and usually wins later in the year
* TIMBER TREASURE doesnt appeal well beaten over 5f
* Horses dropping from 7f had a 1-48 record in this race
* In other races they did a bit better
* Those with under 7 runs though were just 1-33
* PRAVDA STREET does that
* Horses that won with under 7 runs were different types
* Those like him that ran this year were 1-31
* PRAVDA STREET is opposed
* KIPCHAK has just won over 7f
* All horses that came from 7f races had more backclass
* I didnt think he was safe in this race
* Not up 9lbs in the weights and up in class
* CHARLES DARWIN hasnt run into form yet
* I feel he needs more runs before he wins
* I cant find a winner like DICKIE LE DAVOIR
* He was beaten too far for me last time

SHORTLIST

HUSTLE
DANCING MAITE
VHUJON

* DANCING MAITE has a very solid profile
* I would have been happier with one factor
* No past winner came from the sand as he does
* I would have liked to have seen that
* HUSTLE comes from the same race as 2 past winners
* The 2006 and 2008 winners came from the same race
* VHUJON also ran in that race but has run since
* They were 4th and 5th in that race and hard to split
* VHUJON is not out of this
* My worry for VHUJON is stall one
* Not sure how bad a draw that might be
* I would rather be drawn high though
* My concern for HUSTLE is will he go the pace
* I see him at the back being bustled along
* I see him crusing through in the last furlong
* He will look the winner but will he run out of road
* His last race over 6f was actually sharper than this
* Despite less yardage this Course and Distance is stiffer
* It takes a second more to run over this trip and track
* Thats a massive help to HUSTLE in my view

SELECTION- HUSTLE each way 5/1 Bet365

Guy Ward

To visit Guy’s website Click Here ===> Horse Racing Tips